Reading the Defense Writer's Block (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

Not sure how well the Tackle Opportunity discussion went earlier in the year, so I'm a little leery of revisiting that one. Nothing leapt to mind that fit the usual musings last night or this morning, so I thought I might extend the podcast theme to my column this week.

Anyone have a deeper scheme or broad IDP question that's bugging them? Burning player or situational concern? I'd prefer to keep league and team specific advice in the AC Forum, but anything general is fair game.

 

[pretender]

Not sure how well the Tackle Opportunity discussion went earlier in the year, so I'm a little leery of revisiting that one. Nothing leapt to mind that fit the usual musings last night or this morning, so I thought I might extend the podcast theme to my column this week.Anyone have a deeper scheme or broad IDP question that's bugging them? Burning player or situational concern? I'd prefer to keep league and team specific advice in the AC Forum, but anything general is fair game.

Maybe a review of where people can find the answers to IDP match-up questions. I don't seem to find an easy way of telling say for DE/DT against certain offensive schemes of teams. I know there are several tools but a blueprint of how to use them - IDP Matchup 101 sort of thing. I know there aren't black and white answers. Or maybe just some general rules of thumb, where a person can look at their choices and see that maybe player B might have a slight better opportunity than Player A on each week. I know it takes some of the gut instinct out of it - but when its a close call......and making the right call can mean a win or a lose (it does happen that the win or loss is because of 1 player started vs another player that was benched. How do you guys chose your lineups sort of discussion.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Not sure how well the Tackle Opportunity discussion went earlier in the year, so I'm a little leery of revisiting that one. Nothing leapt to mind that fit the usual musings last night or this morning, so I thought I might extend the podcast theme to my column this week.Anyone have a deeper scheme or broad IDP question that's bugging them? Burning player or situational concern? I'd prefer to keep league and team specific advice in the AC Forum, but anything general is fair game.

Maybe a review of where people can find the answers to IDP match-up questions. I don't seem to find an easy way of telling say for DE/DT against certain offensive schemes of teams. I know there are several tools but a blueprint of how to use them - IDP Matchup 101 sort of thing. I know there aren't black and white answers. Or maybe just some general rules of thumb, where a person can look at their choices and see that maybe player B might have a slight better opportunity than Player A on each week. I know it takes some of the gut instinct out of it - but when its a close call......and making the right call can mean a win or a lose (it does happen that the win or loss is because of 1 player started vs another player that was benched. How do you guys chose your lineups sort of discussion.

I wrote a narrower discussion about this in Week 5 last season and an expanded take was my first thought after posting this thread. Still happy to take additional requests.

 

[B A Strothers]

Not sure how well the Tackle Opportunity discussion went earlier in the year, so I'm a little leery of revisiting that one. Nothing leapt to mind that fit the usual musings last night or this morning, so I thought I might extend the podcast theme to my column this week.Anyone have a deeper scheme or broad IDP question that's bugging them? Burning player or situational concern? I'd prefer to keep league and team specific advice in the AC Forum, but anything general is fair game.

I would like to know your thoughts, advice, strategies for trading defense for offense and offense for defense? Particularly in Dynasty leagues. The conventional wisdom seems to be is "never trade offense for defense/always trade defense for offense". When is it right for your team? How to value defensive players v. offensive players? How to structure deals. The only way I have ever closed a deal was by combining and off and def and trading for off + def, maybe you have had more successes? It just seems like IDPs are draft and waiver wire only.

 

[RommelDAK]

Here's a question I've always wondered about (though it may be better suited to my mindless inputting of data than your in-depth knowledge of NFL defenses!): do losing teams tend to be sacked more? I assume that they do simply because they pass more often, but do they experience more sacks out of proportion to their play selection? If so, I would think I'd be better off choosing defensive linemen from teams that appear to be set to win big and that's something I'd like to consider every week.

On second thought, I'll work it out--give me a couple of days!

 

[Rozelle]

Here's a question I've always wondered about (though it may be better suited to my mindless inputting of data than your in-depth knowledge of NFL defenses!): do losing teams tend to be sacked more? I assume that they do simply because they pass more often, but do they experience more sacks out of proportion to their play selection? If so, I would think I'd be better off choosing defensive linemen from teams that appear to be set to win big and that's something I'd like to consider every week.On second thought, I'll work it out--give me a couple of days!

 

[Jene Bramel]

Here's a question I've always wondered about (though it may be better suited to my mindless inputting of data than your in-depth knowledge of NFL defenses!): do losing teams tend to be sacked more? I assume that they do simply because they pass more often, but do they experience more sacks out of proportion to their play selection? If so, I would think I'd be better off choosing defensive linemen from teams that appear to be set to win big and that's something I'd like to consider every week.On second thought, I'll work it out--give me a couple of days!

I'd be shocked if, whether or not you control for the talent of a given offensive line, that a losing team isn't sacked significantly (very significantly) more than a winning team. The increased opportunity without concern for a play-action pass should make that a definitive conclusion. I'm interested to see if it works out that way.Thanks to those who suggested topics this week. I chose to write up some thoughts on matchups this week. I'll add thoughts on trading strategy next week. Feel free to use this thread to continue to add requests if interested and I'll get to as many as possible.

 

[RommelDAK]

It's done, but I'm too sleepy to show the results now--will show tomorrow! Bottom line--the worse you get beat, the more sacks you give up. Not surprising, but I can put a number on it for you.

Stay tuned!

 

[RommelDAK]

I'd be shocked if, whether or not you control for the talent of a given offensive line, that a losing team isn't sacked significantly (very significantly) more than a winning team. The increased opportunity without concern for a play-action pass should make that a definitive conclusion. I'm interested to see if it works out that way.

Not only do you get sacked more often (in a statistically significant way!), but you get sacked on a higher percentage of your pass plays.I'll get it posted by tonight at the latest! And this time I'll include an executive summary so that people don't have wade through my regression analyses!

 

[Dirty Hairy]

I've been experimenting with roster position management this year and you could elaborate on this topic a little.

Using Zealots for example where you start 8 idps, usually 2 dl, 3 lb, & 3 db, I've seen much disparity on how many of each position is rostered (out of 53 roster positions).

Starting three years ago, I was determined to improve my idp scoring and did my homework - I greatly improved my team, but I found myself using roster spots for young, potential idps instead of young potential offensive players. It dawned on me that I should be using my knowledge of idp not to roster the idp depth but to use the free agent pool to supply my depth.

I've taken two leagues to employ this new strategy of reducing my linebackers from ten to seven, defensive backs from eight to five, and defensive lineman from six to four (all approximates). When injuries occur or bye weeks arise, I've been successful adding players from the waiver wire. This has been hugely successful with dbs with Bullitt, Horton, Payne, as examples while the linemen have been less successful. But the point is that I've not been hurt by the strategy.

This has enabled me to roster more depth at QB, RB and WR. So I had Mewelde Moore on my roster when he started. I had Frerotte and Rosenfels when they started, and I had Stuckey and Breaston as long-shots.

The topic is to use roster depth wisely, use the positions for potential fantasy starters and not on fringe idp players because they are generally available on the waiver wire.

 

[RommelDAK]

Amen to that. Unless, of course, if you are in a dynasty league. We only keep three guys every year in mine, and so I have a tough time wasting roster spots on players who are, as you say, fringe idp guys. I've also never been a fan of handcuffing--I prefer creating depth with starters. On a 27-man roster (we start qb, rb, rb, wr/te, wr/te, wr/te, k, dl, dl, lb, lb, db, db), I usually carry five to seven linebackers not only for the reasons you mention, but it keeps other teams from having them! Someone dropped Tatupu last week and I was lucky enough to grab him (never with the intention of starting him) right before his good performance. He'll likely never start on my team but a) nor will he on anyone else's and b) if I do have injuries, he's not a terrible guy to plug in.

Not that my plans always work out, but I agree with your philosophy!

 

[topjimmy]

A bit late but a question I have is when selecting a Safety every week, is it best to start a guy who is going against a team that runs the ball alot or a pass happy team? The reason I ask is I steered away from G. Wilson of the Raiders when they played the Saints figuring he is an "in the box" run stopping saftey and he put up really good numbers. Now I know with LB's the more run attempts the better but how does this work for your Strong Safety for instance? Does it matter? Am I digging too deep LOL

 

[RommelDAK]

I've wondered that same thing. I'm hoping that with my data set of all 2007 box scores and tackles created (which, I realized later, I could have just pulled from Larry's IDP matchup analyzer!) that I can look into that. If I have time, I'll post my findings!

 

[Rozelle]

A bit late but a question I have is when selecting a Safety every week, is it best to start a guy who is going against a team that runs the ball alot or a pass happy team? The reason I ask is I steered away from G. Wilson of the Raiders when they played the Saints figuring he is an "in the box" run stopping saftey and he put up really good numbers. Now I know with LB's the more run attempts the better but how does this work for your Strong Safety for instance? Does it matter? Am I digging too deep LOL

In todays NFL there aren't really any true in-the-box safeties anymore. Almost evryone wants their safeties to be interchangeable. Wilson probably sees as much time in-the-box than most SS. For the most part, I plug a guy like Wilson in every week. New Orleans is pass happy ... true, but they were about average for tackle ops at that time. So many things can happen to change the course of a game, you just never know. I like consistency, so tend to favor DBs who should have a good tackle op matchup, whether that be run or pass. You also like it when your SS is up against a good TE who gets alot of targets.

 

[Bizkiteer]

A bit late but a question I have is when selecting a Safety every week, is it best to start a guy who is going against a team that runs the ball alot or a pass happy team? The reason I ask is I steered away from G. Wilson of the Raiders when they played the Saints figuring he is an "in the box" run stopping saftey and he put up really good numbers. Now I know with LB's the more run attempts the better but how does this work for your Strong Safety for instance? Does it matter? Am I digging too deep LOL

In general, SS are better suited for run heavy teams, while FS can put up higher numbers vs pass happy teams. Of course, that being said...there are several exceptions to rule. Again, that is "generally." You have to trust your bigger guns, just as you do on offense. Don't out think yourself on weekly lineup decisions. The reason they are a big guns/studs is because they do it on a more consistent basis and over an entire season. Yes, a stud can put up a low score on any given week, but they are far and few between...just as offensive players.Good luck!

 

[topjimmy]

For instance, I have the kid Bullitt for Indy, so I try to track his opponents to see whether he should start as opposed to a lower end LB. It rarely is a debate between SS's but rather I should utilize a flex def spot for a SS or LB and attempting to key in on when a SS should have his larger output helps.

thanks guys