This has been an excellent thread with many intelligent views, thoughts & opinions being expressed.
Some of the points that kind of leapt out at me;
Their schedule is very favorable......
Always important to look at what D's and their relative strength, a RB is going to be facing.Quite a few posters have expressed missgivings / concerns about Jackson potentially being pulled at the Goal Line in favor of Faulk.
Faulk vs Jackson last season inside the 10 & inside the 5:
Inside the 10:
Faulk 17 carries, 0.24 ypc, FD every 5.7 carries, TD every 5.7 carries
Jackson 14 carries, 2.0 ypc, FD every 2.8 carries, TD every 4.7 carries
Inside the 5:
Faulk 13 carries, 0.46 ypc, TD every 4.3 carries
Jackson 7 carries, 1.86 ypc, TD every 2.3 carries
Jackson was clearly more prolific last year, and Faulk was actually miserable. That 0.24 ypc is not a misprint, nor is the 0.46 ypc.
Further evidence
Marshall Faulk:
2nd and short (0-2) 13 carries 13 yards 1.0 YPC 1 reception 7 yards 7 YPR
3/4 and short (0-2) 22 carries 43 yards 1.9 YPC 0 receptions 0 yards
OPP 5 to G 13 carries 6 yards 0.5 YPC 3 TD 1 reception 0 yards 0 TD
Steve Jackson:
2nd and short (0-2) 18 carries 125 yards 6.9 YPC 1 reception 0 yards
3/4 and short (0-2) 10 carries 27 yards 2.7 YPC 0 recptions 0 yards
Opp 5 to G 7 carries 13 yards 1.9 YPC 3 TD 0 receptions 0 yards
While Marshall may have received more goal line work last year in terms of number of touches, he was less effective (13 carries for 3 TD vs 7 carries for 3 TD for Jackson). Also, his short yardage ability paled in comparison to Steve Jackson.
Last year I had both Faulk & Jackson on my fantasy team, so I watched every Rams game I could. I can cooreberate from first hand observations, that by far and away, Faulk was the less effective Goal Line back. It was painful to watch really. The once almost unstoppable force of Faulk at the Goal Line, was merely a pale shadow of himself. I seriously doubt that when the Rams are inside the 10 and Martz decides he wants to punch it in on the ground, Jackson gets pulled in favor Faulk.
To compare Faulk to HIMSELF:
In his first 4 years in the NFL (when one would suppose he had all his skills intact):
17.4 carries, 65.6 rushing yards, 3.4 receptions, 31 receiving yards, 0.67 TD per game. 20.8 touches, 96.6 total yards, 13.6 fantasy points per game with a 3.75 ypc.
In his past 3 seasons:
15.8 carries, 65.3 rushing yards, 4.5 receptions, 29.2 receiving yards, 0.64 TD per game. 20.3 touches, 94.5 total yards, 13.3 fantasy points per game with a 4.13 ypc.
Basically, Faulk's numbers his past 3 seasons were essentially THE SAME when compared to his first 4 years in the league. Would anyone suggest that he was a bum his first 4 years?
I realize I'm using a quote from Yudkin, who is actually debating more to Jackson's downside, than his upside, but I think this piece of information is highly telling. Having paid close attention to Faulk's game the last couple of seasons, there's no doubt that his skills have significantly diminished compared to his early days. Yet as Yudkin has pointed out with the above, an older and honestly less effective Faulk, is still producing at the level of his first years in the League. How is this possible? How can a RB who is now several years removed from his early days, where Father Time and injuries have robbed the RB of his initial burst and cut back ability,
still be producing at the same level he was? There's really only one answer. The offensive system that the RB is now in, is an excellent offensive system for RB's.
And as far as "incapable" backups go, Arlen Harris stepped in one week for 96 yards and 3 TDs. Gordon twice had back-to-back weeks with 90-100 yards and a TD. Canidate had over 500 yards and 4 TD filling in for 3 weeks. Even future HOFer Justin Watson filled in for a week and had over 100 yards. One game Robert Holcombe filled in and put up 100 yards.
The above only further serves to solidify the fact that the Rams offense is
very RB friendly. If those wanna be RB's were able to put up those types of numbers, I'm absolutely salivating at Steven Jacksons prospects in this offense with his increased role.All of the above point to Jackson being an excellent #2 RB and quite possibly a #1 RB for a fantasy team.
Now for the negatives.
If the Rams under Martz post winning records, the RBs rush for a lot of TDs. If they have a .500 record or worse, they have single digit rushing TDs.
Over the past three years, the Rams ranked #1 with a 63.3%/36.7% pass play-to- run play ratio. In reverse, that means they have called the lowest % of running plays out of any team in the league. In fact, they have run the ball the least (total number of rushes) of all NFL teams in that time.
People can try to add spices and seasoning all they want, but the botom line is the Rams have not utilized their ground game very much in favor for a high octane passing attack. Until that changes, Jaxson's numbers will suffer because of it.
I am concerned about the number of touches Jackson will get, both because of Martz's pass first game plan, and the presence of Faulk.
Does Martz know how to use a Steven Jackson?
As long as Faulk is playing expect Jackson to get less touches
Essentially the negatives are; (1)Will the Rams have a .500+ record?
(2)Faulk still being there.
(3)Mad Mike Martz's play calling.
We can easily summarize the above into three words, in relation to Jackson.
NUMBER OF CARRIES
That's it in a nut shell.
If you believe Faulk is going to seriously erode Jackson's carries (30%+) combined with a losing season and Mad Mike Martz failing to properly utilize his running game, Jackson is not for you.
However, if you believe Faulk will not eat into Jackson's carries as much (20%-), the Rams will have a winning season and Mad Mike Martz properly utilizes his running game, Jackson is your man.
Personally, I am seriously leaning towards the latter. I honestly believe Martz utilized the ground game less than he normally would've, because of Faulk's declining skill set. I think this year Martz will incorporate the running game into his game plan more so than he has in recent years
because of Steven Jackson. I do not see Faulk cutting into Jackson's carries as much as some fear. It's the passing game where Faulk will eat into Jackon's touches. I'm definitely not worried about Faulk as a Goal Line vulture to Jackson. As I said earlier in this post, I watched as many Rams games as I could last year and Faulk is a shadow of himself. He's lost his initial burst and can no longer cut the way he once used to, which is what made him money at the Goal Line in years gone by. Steven Jackson is clearly the better Goal Line option now and whatever you want to say about Martz, he is no fool. He will use the best tool to get the job done, as far as the running game is concerned when at the Goal Line.
Edit: For typos