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There was 6:16 remaining after that play. The interception was made at the SD 31, and SD led by 8 points. You are technically correct that it wasn't 100%, but the win probability for the Chargers would have been extremely high in that situation if they didn't fumble it. I suspect over 90%.
I really don't want to be in the position of defending Eli Manning, but this is just factually dead wrong re: 2011. That year, the offense ranked 8th in yards / 9th in points while the defense was 27th / 25th. Eli threw for 4933 / 29 in a career year and was great in the playoffs. He was fantastic in 2011 and a major, if not THE main, reason they won that year.
That 's fine, but saying it was a game-winning INT that would have sealed the game is just factually incorrect. I know it's semantics, but still. I remember watching that game and thinking the Chargers lack of discipline was why they lost it, not because of that one play. But that was a Marty Schottenheimer team for ya. He instilled this tough guy attitude in his teams that often saw them losing discipline in key moments.
