rechecking preseason OL rankings after week 10 (1 Viewer)

[newteech]

After watching Ronnie Brown continually get hit in the backfield this week, thought I'd revisit this article.

After week 10, Miami currently ranks 19th in rushing yards. Yet Smith & Scott ranked this unit #4 in run blocking. Carolina was ranked #5 and they currently are 24th.

Current league leaders in rushing? KC is #1 (which was ranked #19) and Oakland is #2 (which was ranked #27).

I imagine correctly gauging these units is difficult, but for some of us that rely heavily on this info these outcomes are disappointing.

link to original article

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Carolina has missed Otah all year. That's a huge hit. Not sure about the others.

I like the potential for this thread. What did we miss that we can learn for next year? Or is this something that can't be predicted?

 

[newteech]

Or is this something that can't be predicted?

That's what I'm wondering. We all know how hard it is to predict the success of 1 guy, let alone a group of 5 of them. But man it's important. I can't tell you how much I hate drafting RBs and then seeing them get hit before they've even taken the handoff. I would love to hear some post-analysis from Ministry of Pain.

 

[Doug B]

I don't think OL quality can be predicted reliably. Typically, teams with bad records get tabbed with having bad O-lines. Then if that team surprises and goes 9-7, that same o-line "magically" turns into a top-10 unit with four of the same guys.

Another huge hole in those rankings: teams with quick-release QBs get high marks for pass blocking. On the contrary -- I think you could take the NFL's five worst pass-blockers, put them in front of Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, and their sacks-taken total wouldn't go up very much. A great pass-blocking line in the NFL would keep David Carr's jersey clean Maybe there should be a "pass-blocking hang time" stat for o-lines: have a ticker going at the snap and see which o-lines really can extend plays just by their pass blocking.

A similar effect grants teams with hyper-mobile QBs better run-block o-lines than they may really have. Michael Vick could put up crazy busted-play rushing yards behind a sieve o-line. A running QB's rushing yards can make his team's o-line look like some kind of YPC powerhouse, even if they can't push the DL an inch off the line.

 

[Doug B]

Bump -- this is a good topic.

 

[Diamond]

My pre-season Top 5 run-blocking O-Lines:

1. Jets

2. Titans

3. Ravens

4. Browns

5. Dolphins

Dead wrong on the Dolphins and the Titans aren't as good as I thought as CJ gets hit in the backfield way too often.

Chiefs have been a huge surprise, Raiders a mild surprise, as they've had effective stretches in the recent past.

Would've put the Panthers top 10 but without Otah they've been terrible.

If I were rating today:

1. Jets

2. Texans

3. Browns

4. Falcons

5. Ravens

6. Chiefs

7. Raiders

8. Titans

9. Giants <-- recent line injuries are very worrisome

10. Patriots

11. Bills

12. Vikings

13. Rams

14. 49ers <--- dropping with Staley out a month

15. Bucs

16. Saints

17. Packers

18. Redskins

19. Bengals

20. Dolphins

21. Seahawks <-- need Okung to get and stay healthy

22. Steelers

23. Broncos <--- trending up with Ryan Harris back

24. Chargers

25. Eagles

26. Jaguars

27. Cardinals

28. Lions

29. Colts

30. Cowboys

31. Panthers

32. Bears

Where am I wrong?

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I don't know if I would drop SF much even though they'll be missing Staley.

 

[srnohav]

I like the thinking on pass protection timing, but also keep in mind there are two completly different strengths of an OL. Pass blocking and run blocking. you here analysis all the time that speaks to how someone could be great at run blocking and not good at all pass blocking. so if we could find data that showed the time the line held until first contact on the QB, that might be helpful on juding a QB, but not necesarily on the RB. You can also get a time on each QB and show average release time and such, but once again I don't think that helps with judging a RB.

I think the only thing people use is the RB average per carry and that is why you have such a variance from year to year. also, the line coach changes, there are injuries to at least one of the five guys which totally can throw off a line. How many times does one guy get injured and that causes the entire line to shift around, the guard moves to tackle, the left guard moves to right guard, etc etc.

also time together seems to make a huge difference. a line that has no pro bowlers does better than a line with several because they know what their responsibilities are and where their teamates are going to be. Then you need to break down zone blocking vs the big maulers. you can have an undersized line put up huge rushing totals because of the the sytem (ex: Broncos in the Shannahan days).

With all these variables I think it makes it too dificult to grade them.

just my two cents

 

[reprisal]

Texans seem too high...theyve been great @ run blocking, but it seems like a lot of Schaub's recent struggles have to do with pressure. Not entirely sure how much is his fault vs the lines, 2nd best just seems a bit high. Redskins seem to high as well. Hard to say, theres a lot of really bad lines out there. I'm scared to even say this...but bears might be trending up just a tiny bit maybe thats just closing the gap between them and 31 tho

 

[Dr. Awesome]

If I were rating today:1. Jets2. Texans3. Browns4. Falcons5. Ravens6. Chiefs7. Raiders8. Titans 9. Giants <-- recent line injuries are very worrisome10. Patriots11. Bills12. Vikings13. Rams14. 49ers <--- dropping with Staley out a month15. Bucs16. Saints17. Packers18. Redskins19. Bengals20. Dolphins21. Seahawks <-- need Okung to get and stay healthy22. Steelers23. Broncos <--- trending up with Ryan Harris back24. Chargers25. Eagles26. Jaguars27. Cardinals28. Lions29. Colts30. Cowboys31. Panthers32. BearsWhere am I wrong?

Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, and Vikings should be lower.

 

[Limp Ditka]

If I were rating today:1. Jets2. Texans3. Browns4. Falcons5. Ravens6. Chiefs7. Raiders8. Titans 9. Giants <-- recent line injuries are very worrisome10. Patriots11. Bills12. Vikings13. Rams14. 49ers <--- dropping with Staley out a month15. Bucs16. Saints17. Packers18. Redskins19. Bengals20. Dolphins21. Seahawks <-- need Okung to get and stay healthy22. Steelers23. Broncos <--- trending up with Ryan Harris back24. Chargers25. Eagles26. Jaguars27. Cardinals28. Lions29. Colts30. Cowboys31. Panthers32. BearsWhere am I wrong?

Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, and Vikings should be lower.

So should the Bears

 

[footballnerd]

Ricky Williams is running pretty well behind that same MIA line.

 

[Diamond]

Texans seem too high...theyve been great @ run blocking, but it seems like a lot of Schaub's recent struggles have to do with pressure. Not entirely sure how much is his fault vs the lines, 2nd best just seems a bit high. Redskins seem to high as well. Hard to say, theres a lot of really bad lines out there. I'm scared to even say this...but bears might be trending up just a tiny bit maybe thats just closing the gap between them and 31 tho

My ranking was strictly for run-blocking, as I'm mostly interested in the affects on RBs.

 

[Diamond]

I don't know if I would drop SF much even though they'll be missing Staley.

Do you know who's replacing him? SF is top 10 if there's no affect.Edit:Uh, scratch that, there's a definite affect. That was a pathetic display of run blocking at home vs Tampa, who are one of the worst run defenses in the league. I really should've traded Gore when I had the chance this past week...Noticed Bradshaw's anemic performance as well, line injuries can most certainly have an affect.

 

[Diamond]

Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, and Vikings should be lower.

Probably right. Peterson, for one, masks a lot of faults for the Vikings.Thanks.