Redraft Overvalued Picks (1 Viewer)

[Khy]

Following the thread on Redraft Value Picks, I thought it'd be a good idea to do one based on overvalued picks as well. People who are going at an ADP that just seems significantly to high to draft them at... I will begin. We are going to use the same site as the other thread for average ADP http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=qb

QB:

Colin Kaepernick - 6.03 (QB7): He averaged 21.30ppg last year in his started after taking over from Alex Smith. It's definitely nothing to laugh at it would clock him in at around 11th overall last season if extrapolated over a full season. I personally think he's going to see some regression especially with the loss of Crabtree. I just think he's going over guys like Stafford, Wilson, RG3, Luck and Romo. Who are all guys I'd personally draft over him this season.

RB:

Adrian Peterson - 1.01 (RB1): History tells us the odds of ADP being the #1 RB again this season are very very unlikely. I just feel like there's a much higher chance for someone like Doug Martin or Jamaal Charles (my personal 1.01) to out do him this season. Last season was one of the best seasons by a RB I've ever seen. It's not likely to happen again. I'm just going to omit this one as it seems to be making people get off track.

Steven Jackson - 2.02 (RB11): He finished at RB15 last season and was clearly starting to slow up. Sure he's on a better offense this year but I just don't see to much from him in the way of actual yardage. He'll probably get 8-9 TDs but I'd be surprised if he breaks 1000 on the ground.

WR:

Randle Cobb - 3.07 (WR9): I'm just not willing to draft someone this high like Cobb. Last season he posted under 1000 yards with 8 TDs. For some reason everyone has this idea that Jennings is gone and it's time for Cobb to become a dominant Top 10 WR. They seem to be forgetting he was in this same spot last season, Jennings barely played last year. I just don't see him doing much better than last year, which was still a solid year but more of a WR15-20. I'm not drafting him over Roddy White (3.10), Vincent Jackson (4.02), Victor Cruz (4.04), Marques Colston (4.07) or Dwayne Bowe (4.08).

TE:

Rob Gronkowski - 4.11 (TE2): His arm and now his back surgery. He's going to miss playing time, it's too tough to call him 'overvalued' right now but I want to put him here. Because if he misses 1 game sure no problem, but as these drafts start picking up for us if he ends up missing 4-5 games there's no way I'm taking him at 4.11 when guys like Hernandez (5.06), Tony G (6.08) or Vernon Davis (6.11) can be had a little later in the draft and have far less injury concerns.

 

[dickey moe]

Qb Kaep

Rb DWilson

Wr JNelson

Te VDavis

 

[Khy]

Qb KaepRb DWilsonWr JNelsonTe VDavis

Really, David Wilson? Right now his ADP is 3.07 and he's the 20th RB coming off the board. Considering he'll be the lead back in one of the best offenses in the NFL what makes you think he won't beat out RB20? Personally I think he'll crack Top 10. I'm a Giants homer so there is a slight bias but still... if anything he's in the underrated discussion.

 

[PhantomJB]

Following the thread on Redraft Value Picks, I thought it'd be a good idea to do one based on overvalued picks as well. People who are going at an ADP that just seems significantly to high to draft them at... I will begin. We are going to use the same site as the other thread for average ADP http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=qb

RB:

Adrian Peterson - 1.01 (RB1): History tells us the odds of ADP being the #1 RB again this season are very very unlikely. I just feel like there's a much higher chance for someone like Doug Martin or Jamaal Charles (my personal 1.01) to out do him this season. Last season was one of the best seasons by a RB I've ever seen. It's not likely to happen again.

Good post and thread but I would disagree on this selection. While you make a good point that the odds may be against him finishing 1st overall, to me it's like a choice between Tiger Woods and the Field at the U.S. Open.

ADP is the best back in the NFL and while someone may outdo him next year good luck picking who that will be as there are several candidates and none with his overall talent.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Adrian Peterson - 1.01 (RB1): History tells us the odds of ADP being the #1 RB again this season are very very unlikely. I just feel like there's a much higher chance for someone like Doug Martin or Jamaal Charles (my personal 1.01) to out do him this season. Last season was one of the best seasons by a RB I've ever seen. It's not likely to happen again.

You can only take one player at 1.01 and history also tells us that 95% (made up percentage) of the people are going to choose a player there that doesn't finish No. 1 overall. Generally one takes the "safest" player at 1.01 and Peterson fits the bill of a guy that will at least be in the ballpark when all is said and done.

I don't think many people think he'll put up the same numbers as last season - it's pretty likely no RB will come close to that.

 

[Khy]

Following the thread on Redraft Value Picks, I thought it'd be a good idea to do one based on overvalued picks as well. People who are going at an ADP that just seems significantly to high to draft them at... I will begin. We are going to use the same site as the other thread for average ADP http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=qb

RB:

Adrian Peterson - 1.01 (RB1): History tells us the odds of ADP being the #1 RB again this season are very very unlikely. I just feel like there's a much higher chance for someone like Doug Martin or Jamaal Charles (my personal 1.01) to out do him this season. Last season was one of the best seasons by a RB I've ever seen. It's not likely to happen again.

Good post and thread but I would disagree on this selection. While you make a good point that the odds may be against him finishing 1st overall, to me it's like a choice between Tiger Woods and the Field at the U.S. Open.

ADP is the best back in the NFL and while someone may outdo him next year good luck picking who that will be as there are several candidates and none with his overall talent.

Oh sure, I mean that's fair he'll end the season Top 5 at worst. So it's not really 'overvaluing' him in that sense. Just I don't see him as the consensus 1.01 that every single site has him at regardless of that fact that he'll be 1.01 in 90% of redrafts this season. When it's all said and done last season is going to be a major outlier on his career. I'd be surprised if he ever surpasses his Sophomore 1760yds year again in his career. He's still the best RB the NFL has seen since Barry and is a shoe in HoF who will make a few more amazing seasons happen. I love the dude to death but I'm just not drafting him 1.01 if I get the pick this year.

 

[fightingillini]

Following the thread on Redraft Value Picks, I thought it'd be a good idea to do one based on overvalued picks as well. People who are going at an ADP that just seems significantly to high to draft them at... I will begin. We are going to use the same site as the other thread for average ADP http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=qb

RB:

Adrian Peterson - 1.01 (RB1): History tells us the odds of ADP being the #1 RB again this season are very very unlikely. I just feel like there's a much higher chance for someone like Doug Martin or Jamaal Charles (my personal 1.01) to out do him this season. Last season was one of the best seasons by a RB I've ever seen. It's not likely to happen again.

Good post and thread but I would disagree on this selection. While you make a good point that the odds may be against him finishing 1st overall, to me it's like a choice between Tiger Woods and the Field at the U.S. Open.

ADP is the best back in the NFL and while someone may outdo him next year good luck picking who that will be as there are several candidates and none with his overall talent.

Oh sure, I mean that's fair he'll end the season Top 5 at worst. So it's not really 'overvaluing' him in that sense. Just I don't see him as the consensus 1.01 that every single site has him at regardless of that fact that he'll be 1.01 in 90% of redrafts this season. When it's all said and done last season is going to be a major outlier on his career. I'd be surprised if he ever surpasses his Sophomore 1760yds year again in his career. He's still the best RB the NFL has seen since Barry and is a shoe in HoF who will make a few more amazing seasons happen. I love the dude to death but I'm just not drafting him 1.01 if I get the pick this year.

If you get the 1.1, why don't you trade down to a spot where you can get Charles?

That said, Peterson is going to regress, there is very little chance that he will surpass what he did last year. But he's still money in the bank. He's very likely going to average 5ypc, get 320 or more carries, catch 30-40 passes, and score a minimum of 12 TDs. No other RB has that kind of floor. Sure, Martin or Charles or Foster could surpass him, but you have to go with the odds. The odds are very good that Peterson will be the best FF RB in 2013.

 

[fightingillini]

Following the thread on Redraft Value Picks, I thought it'd be a good idea to do one based on overvalued picks as well. People who are going at an ADP that just seems significantly to high to draft them at... I will begin. We are going to use the same site as the other thread for average ADP http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=qb

QB:

Colin Kaepernick - 6.03 (QB7): He averaged 21.30ppg last year in his started after taking over from Alex Smith. It's definitely nothing to laugh at it would clock him in at around 11th overall last season if extrapolated over a full season. I personally think he's going to see some regression especially with the loss of Crabtree. I just think he's going over guys like Stafford, Wilson, RG3, Luck and Romo. Who are all guys I'd personally draft over him this season.

RB:

Adrian Peterson - 1.01 (RB1): History tells us the odds of ADP being the #1 RB again this season are very very unlikely. I just feel like there's a much higher chance for someone like Doug Martin or Jamaal Charles (my personal 1.01) to out do him this season. Last season was one of the best seasons by a RB I've ever seen. It's not likely to happen again.

Steven Jackson - 2.02 (RB11): He finished at RB15 last season and was clearly starting to slow up. Sure he's on a better offense this year but I just don't see to much from him in the way of actual yardage. He'll probably get 8-9 TDs but I'd be surprised if he breaks 1000 on the ground.

WR:

Randle Cobb - 3.07 (WR9): I'm just not willing to draft someone this high like Cobb. Last season he posted under 1000 yards with 8 TDs. For some reason everyone has this idea that Jennings is gone and it's time for Cobb to become a dominant Top 10 WR. They seem to be forgetting he was in this same spot last season, Jennings barely played last year. I just don't see him doing much better than last year, which was still a solid year but more of a WR15-20. I'm not drafting him over Roddy White (3.10), Vincent Jackson (4.02), Victor Cruz (4.04), Marques Colston (4.07) or Dwayne Bowe (4.08).

TE:

Rob Gronkowski - 4.11 (TE2): His arm and now his back surgery. He's going to miss playing time, it's too tough to call him 'overvalued' right now but I want to put him here. Because if he misses 1 game sure no problem, but as these drafts start picking up for us if he ends up missing 4-5 games there's no way I'm taking him at 4.11 when guys like Hernandez (5.06), Tony G (6.08) or Vernon Davis (6.11) can be had a little later in the draft and have far less injury concerns.

I agree with you on Jackson and Cobb. Disagree somewhat on Peterson and Kaepernick.

Totally disagree regarding Gronkowski. When he plays, he's just dominant. If he misses a couple of games, you just fill in with one of the many TEs in the 10-20 range. The TEs ranked 10-20 are pretty much the same guy. Currently, you don't know if Gronkowski is going to miss playing time. He may, but that is factored into his 4.11 price tag.

 

[Khy]

Following the thread on Redraft Value Picks, I thought it'd be a good idea to do one based on overvalued picks as well. People who are going at an ADP that just seems significantly to high to draft them at... I will begin. We are going to use the same site as the other thread for average ADP http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=qb

RB:

Adrian Peterson - 1.01 (RB1): History tells us the odds of ADP being the #1 RB again this season are very very unlikely. I just feel like there's a much higher chance for someone like Doug Martin or Jamaal Charles (my personal 1.01) to out do him this season. Last season was one of the best seasons by a RB I've ever seen. It's not likely to happen again.

Good post and thread but I would disagree on this selection. While you make a good point that the odds may be against him finishing 1st overall, to me it's like a choice between Tiger Woods and the Field at the U.S. Open.

ADP is the best back in the NFL and while someone may outdo him next year good luck picking who that will be as there are several candidates and none with his overall talent.

Oh sure, I mean that's fair he'll end the season Top 5 at worst. So it's not really 'overvaluing' him in that sense. Just I don't see him as the consensus 1.01 that every single site has him at regardless of that fact that he'll be 1.01 in 90% of redrafts this season. When it's all said and done last season is going to be a major outlier on his career. I'd be surprised if he ever surpasses his Sophomore 1760yds year again in his career. He's still the best RB the NFL has seen since Barry and is a shoe in HoF who will make a few more amazing seasons happen. I love the dude to death but I'm just not drafting him 1.01 if I get the pick this year.

If you get the 1.1, why don't you trade down to a spot where you can get Charles?

That said, Peterson is going to regress, there is very little chance that he will surpass what he did last year. But he's still money in the bank. He's very likely going to average 5ypc, get 320 or more carries, catch 30-40 passes, and score a minimum of 12 TDs. No other RB has that kind of floor. Sure, Martin or Charles or Foster could surpass him, but you have to go with the odds. The odds are very good that Peterson will be the best FF RB in 2013.

In the majority of my (and I assume most) redraft leagues we don't do draft pick trading it's just a standard serpentine draft. We do a random pick out of a hat for the draft picks at the start of the draft and go from there. I'm holding out hope that I land like 1.05 or so as that should all but guarantee me Charles in my league and I'm taking him with 1.01 if I get that anyway. So I'd like 1.05 to get Charles and be higher up on the rest of the draft. Last year I had 1.01 and while it was awesome getting Foster like I wanted it sucked having to wait for 22 other picks to go by before I got my 2nd draft pick. I don't want to do that again, still won the league but man was that boring lol

That said, I put a strikeout over the AP part. It seems to be making people get off track on the topic as everyone has posted pretty much focusing on that instead of adding to the discussion.

 

[Biabreakable]

Steven Jackson - 2.02 (RB11): He finished at RB15 last season and was clearly starting to slow up. Sure he's on a better offense this year but I just don't see to much from him in the way of actual yardage. He'll probably get 8-9 TDs but I'd be surprised if he breaks 1000 on the ground.

How was it clear that he was slowing up? Jackson had the same ypc in 2012 as he did when he was 22 years old in 2005. I watched Jacksons games last season. The Rams should have given him the ball more, they knew he was going to leave the team as a free agent in 2013 however and so they reduced his workload. Jacksons worst season was in 2010 when Bradford was a rookie QB and the Rams were a bad enough team to earn the 1st overall pick. Jackson had 330 carries but only managed 3.8 ypc because the defense was selling out to stop him, being less worried about Bradford as a rookie. The next season (2011) Jackson rebounds to 4.4 ypc which tied his previous high(excluding 5ypc rookie season in COP role behind Faulk) in 2006 and 2009. With a more balanced (but far from good) offense Jackson performed at his previous level of where I would set the top ypc expectation for him, 4.1 he gained last season seems like his low as he hit that mark twice before as well. So a revised projection I would likely have his ypc for 2013 be 4.1-4.4 ypc given this has been the range that Jackson has perfomed in through his career I do not understand how you can say he has slow(ed) up.

2004 21 STL rb 39 14 3 134 673 4 48 5.0 48.1 9.6 19 189 9.9 0 28 1.4 13.5 862 4 1 52005 22 STL RB 39 15 15 254 1046 8 51 4.1 69.7 16.9 43 320 7.4 2 27 2.9 21.3 1366 10 3 92006* 23 STL RB 39 16 16 346 1528 13 59 4.4 95.5 21.6 90 806 9.0 3 64 5.6 50.4 2334 16 4 192007 24 STL RB 39 12 12 237 1002 5 54 4.2 83.5 19.8 38 271 7.1 1 37 3.2 22.6 1273 6 5 82008 25 STL RB 39 12 11 253 1042 7 56 4.1 86.8 21.1 40 379 9.5 1 53 3.3 31.6 1421 8 5 82009* 26 STL RB 39 15 15 324 1416 4 58 4.4 94.4 21.6 51 322 6.3 0 38 3.4 21.5 1738 4 2 82010* 27 STL RB 39 16 16 330 1241 6 42 3.8 77.6 20.6 46 383 8.3 0 49 2.9 23.9 1624 6 1 102011 28 STL RB 39 15 15 260 1145 5 47 4.4 76.3 17.3 42 333 7.9 1 50 2.8 22.2 1478 6 2 62012 29 STL rb/RB 39 16 15 257 1042 4 46 4.1 65.1 16.1 38 321 8.4 0 22 2.4 20.1 1363 4 0 7http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackSt00.htm

Saying that Jackson will not rush for 1000 yards seems like a suckers bet considering Jackson has gained over 1k yards in every season of his career that he was not backing up HOF Marshall Faulk as a rookie. I would be projecting him for over 1k yards rushing if Jackson were still on the Rams. I think his situation is much improved with the Falcons, so why would I even think Jackson would gain less that 1k yards rushing? He has only done it every season he has been the starter, he must be due....

I would also like to direct your attention to the receptions column Jacksons low in receptions is 38 receptions which did happen twice. One of those times he only played in 12 games though. The high is 90 receptions which he did in his 3rd season. The Falcons have too many other good targets for Jackson to get this many receptions, but that is the high point, so it is clear Jackson can be and has been heavily involved in the passing game. The Falcons head coach has talked about this as well. They plan to use him often as a receiver as well and Jackson is certainly capable. Throwing out his rookie year Jackson has 388 catches in 8 seasons. That is 48.5 catches/season. Jackson played 117games in those 8 seasons and had 3.3catches/game = 53receptions/season. This would be a tight range of expectation because of Jacksons consistent track record and enough opportunity. 49-53 receptions. Of course I could see some downside and upside from those numbers as well so might widen out that range, but that would be the median expectation of receptions from Jackson in 2013 as long as he is healthy enough to play all 16 games. The worst yards/reception year was 6.3 in 2009 when Jackson had Mark Bulger who only made it through 8 games (not very well either), Kyle Boller played in 7 games and to top off the QB triangle of futility 4 games from Keith Null who's last name defines the effectiveness of this groups QBing. The next lowest yards/reception was 7.1 in 2007 when he was injured and missed 4 games. The high was 9.5 (again not counting rookie season) He did this in a season where he was injured as well. His career yards/reception is 8.4 but I would likely expect a bit lower than that I think, some adjustment to the new offense and an offensive line with new starters being the main reasons. Still even at 8 yards/reception that would be 392-425 yards. I could see more variance than the receptions of course but Jackson has had over 300 yards receiving in 7 out of 8 of those seasons. The one time he failed he only played in 12 games. There are 3 seasons at around 320 yards that were not injury shortened however so that is likely where I would put the yardage floor. So 39-63 receptions for 312-504 yards receiving.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

QB: Noone – right now, I would say all QB’s are on sale. Rodgers/Brees in Round 2? Matt Ryan in Round 5? Tony Romo in Round 8? Even the young guys with their ceilings seem placed in OK ADP areas. Would I feel more comfortable with a veteran? Yes…but I can’t argue with current draft positions for Luck/RGIII/Wilson.

RB: Trent Richardson (1:10) – he didn’t exceed 1000 yards or 4 YPC his rookie year and dealt with a variety of nagging injuries. It’s not that I don’t think he can do better or get healthy, but I don’t like betting on the come in Round 1.

WR: Brandon Marshall (2:06) – Marshall received 40% of all Bears targets in 2012. Only 5 WR’s have exceeded 30% in the last 3 seasons and no one has exceeded 32%. The Bears don’t throw a lot and I don’t expect that to change under new HC. Cutler is still prone to INT’s, the Bears defense is still formidable and the have great depth and production at RB. Will their pass attempts increase…maybe but 550 is the ceiling here (I’d guess 520-525). If Trestman says bye-bye to Brandon Ratio and ratchets down Marshall to 30%, his targets drop from 194 to 158. He’ll still be a WR1, but Andre, Roddy and Fitz represent better value a round later.

TE: Noone (or most of them) – some are pointing to Gronk (4:11) here, but IMO if you pick Gronk, you’re probably covering yourself by drafting another TE. What’s the difference between Greg Olsen in Round 12 or Kyle Rudolph in Round 8. I get that this hasn’t exactly been the Summer of Gronk like last year and it may be tough for him to come back in 2013 into top form. But at his best he’s a 2nd round player and TD monster. Truth is, by the time our respective drafts come along, we’ll know more about his recovery and return timetable. So 4:11 seems like an early season hedge bet. If you are drafting early though, the upside on Gronk is exceptional and you can CYA quite easily.

 

[BroadwayG]

Greg Jennings.

 

[LususV]

Following the thread on Redraft Value Picks, I thought it'd be a good idea to do one based on overvalued picks as well. People who are going at an ADP that just seems significantly to high to draft them at... I will begin. We are going to use the same site as the other thread for average ADP http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=qb

RB:

Adrian Peterson - 1.01 (RB1): History tells us the odds of ADP being the #1 RB again this season are very very unlikely. I just feel like there's a much higher chance for someone like Doug Martin or Jamaal Charles (my personal 1.01) to out do him this season. Last season was one of the best seasons by a RB I've ever seen. It's not likely to happen again.

Good post and thread but I would disagree on this selection. While you make a good point that the odds may be against him finishing 1st overall, to me it's like a choice between Tiger Woods and the Field at the U.S. Open.

ADP is the best back in the NFL and while someone may outdo him next year good luck picking who that will be as there are several candidates and none with his overall talent.

Oh sure, I mean that's fair he'll end the season Top 5 at worst. So it's not really 'overvaluing' him in that sense. Just I don't see him as the consensus 1.01 that every single site has him at regardless of that fact that he'll be 1.01 in 90% of redrafts this season. When it's all said and done last season is going to be a major outlier on his career. I'd be surprised if he ever surpasses his Sophomore 1760yds year again in his career. He's still the best RB the NFL has seen since Barry and is a shoe in HoF who will make a few more amazing seasons happen. I love the dude to death but I'm just not drafting him 1.01 if I get the pick this year.

:iatp:

I have Doug Martin at 1.01 on all of my boards, so I get where you're coming from.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

QB: Kaepernick's an obvious one and I agree with the OP's reasoning.

Matthew Stafford (QB8) - you can read my post in his player spotlight for more details, but bottom line is he won't throw it 727 times again this year, doesn't have a history of top-10 performances beyond his aberrational 2011, won't rush for 4 TD's again, and yet is being drafted 3 spots higher than where he finished his pass-happy 2012. Risks are overwhelmingly to the downside at this ADP.

Michael Vick (QB14) - he's nothing but a pure lottery ticket at this stage: we don't know how he'll handle a Chip Kelly offensive scheme, whether he can, or will, play a full 16 games, or even whether he'll be the Game 1 starter. With all those question marks, how can you justify picking him at QB14? You can't feel comfortable slotting him into a QBBC, and if you already have a top-flight QB, you probably don't need to go to the well this early for a guy you're only planning to use once or twice all year. I wouldn't even consider him until the QB20 range.

RB: Trent Richardson (RB10) - you can't win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it there. I want to see a lot more than T-Rich showed me last year (and that he can stay healthy) before I drop a 1st-rounder on him.

I don't think Frank Gore (RB16) is massively overvalued, but I'd still be leery about taking him at this spot. The Niners almost have no choice but to get Hunter and James more involved with the offense, plus the clock hits 30 this year and history tells us the drop-off at that age is more often a cliff than a gentle slope.

WR: Percy Harvin (WR7) - for my money, he's the most over-drafted player at any position at this ADP. Even prorating last year's eye-popping half-season to 16 games would have landed him only at WR6 in non-PPR, and this year he goes to a far better offense that throws less and will play with the lead more. I don't see him averaging more than 10 PPG (again, in non-PPR).

Randall Cobb (WR9) - in many drafts he's going ahead of Fitzgerald, which is just delusional. Way too high-risk to rely on as your #1 WR.

Kenny Britt (WR38) - A fragile, temperamental head case with a bad QB throwing to him? Exactly what I'm looking for out of my WR3. I'm not even looking at this guy until well into the 50's.

TE: Whoever Goes (TE6, 7) - Doesn't matter if it's Pitta, Davis, Rudolph, Cook, whomever. There's nothing in terms of either ceiling or floor at those draft slots that you can't get five rounds later from a guy like Daniels, Olsen, or Bennett.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

Man I know I am going to get shot for this ..... Jamal Charles. I have had him on my roster every year in redraft (the injury made that easy). Granted I am just a FF couch potato but I see a RB that scares the crap out of me with his ability to turn in a low scoring affair. That early in the draft I want upper echelon consistency every week. It does not have to be the top 3 each week but I certainly want it to be the top 10.

 

[FF Ninja]

Quaterbacks

Kaepernick (QB7), Wilson (QB9), and RG3 (QB11) all have too much hype for guys on teams that finished 30, 31, and 32 in pass attempts last year. Silliness.

Stafford (QB8) is being drafted at his ceiling. He's not going to repeat 40 TDs again, much less get 700 attempts.

Running Backs

FWIW, I agree with your pick of ADP. I love to watch him play, but I'm not betting on him this year.

Ray Rice (RB4) will not see nearly as many receptions in a Caldwell offense as he did in Cameron's offense. He also has a RB behind him who is probably a better pure runner than he is. I expect a significantly decreased workload.

I won't be taking Martin at RB3, but his workload should keep him top 10.

Ridley (RB14) was a top target of mine last year, but I won't touch him this year. He was less effective at the goal line than BJGE was and he's now got a lot of competition on the team with Blount and a healthy Bolden.

Murray (RB16) was not only disappointing due to injuries, but also when he was healthy.

Rookies. Bell, Ball, and Lacy are all going around the same spot. The bust rate is pretty high for 2nd round RBs. Picking which one will actually have success in his rookie year, much less stand the test of time, is a crapshoot.

Wide Receivers

Marshall (WR3) is a safe bet to finish top 10, but won't come close to WR3.

Thomas (WR6) will see a decrease in targets. Much like Marshall, people are paying for last year's stats.

Harvin (WR7) is going to a team that doesn't throw the ball much and has plenty of talented RBs. I'll be shocked if he sees over 30 carries or 80 receptions.

White (WR8) finished WR10 last year and the targets are trending away from him (5 year low last year) and towards Julio yet White is being drafted above last year's finish. Craziness.

Cobb (WR11) is not a touchdown guy nor a YPR guy and is on an offense that hasn't seen a guy break the low 80's in receptions in quite some time.

Hilton (WR32) led the league in drop rate and could easily be bumped to WR3 by the newly signed DHB.

Tight Ends

Can't really take issue with any of the tight ends. I won't draft one early, but I don't see anyone up there who I think is going to be a bust.

 

[Khy]

Quaterbacks

Kaepernick (QB7), Wilson (QB9), and RG3 (QB11) all have too much hype for guys on teams that finished 30, 31, and 32 in pass attempts last year. Silliness.

Stafford (QB8) is being drafted at his ceiling. He's not going to repeat 40 TDs again, much less get 700 attempts.

Running Backs

FWIW, I agree with your pick of ADP. I love to watch him play, but I'm not betting on him this year.

Ray Rice (RB4) will not see nearly as many receptions in a Caldwell offense as he did in Cameron's offense. He also has a RB behind him who is probably a better pure runner than he is. I expect a significantly decreased workload.

I won't be taking Martin at RB3, but his workload should keep him top 10.

Ridley (RB14) was a top target of mine last year, but I won't touch him this year. He was less effective at the goal line than BJGE was and he's now got a lot of competition on the team with Blount and a healthy Bolden.

Murray (RB16) was not only disappointing due to injuries, but also when he was healthy.

Rookies. Bell, Ball, and Lacy are all going around the same spot. The bust rate is pretty high for 2nd round RBs. Picking which one will actually have success in his rookie year, much less stand the test of time, is a crapshoot.

Wide Receivers

Marshall (WR3) is a safe bet to finish top 10, but won't come close to WR3.

Thomas (WR6) will see a decrease in targets. Much like Marshall, people are paying for last year's stats.

Harvin (WR7) is going to a team that doesn't throw the ball much and has plenty of talented RBs. I'll be shocked if he sees over 30 carries or 80 receptions.

White (WR8) finished WR10 last year and the targets are trending away from him (5 year low last year) and towards Julio yet White is being drafted above last year's finish. Craziness.

Cobb (WR11) is not a touchdown guy nor a YPR guy and is on an offense that hasn't seen a guy break the low 80's in receptions in quite some time.

Hilton (WR32) led the league in drop rate and could easily be bumped to WR3 by the newly signed DHB.

Tight Ends

Can't really take issue with any of the tight ends. I won't draft one early, but I don't see anyone up there who I think is going to be a bust.

I like a lot of your picks, obviously I agree with Kaep and I've seen some really compelling arguments for Stafford. I'd be none to surprised if he finished outside the Top 10 this season. That said, I do believe in the hype surrounding RG3 and Wilson and I'm targeting them right around their ADPs in my of my redrafts this year. I'm also not sure where you're getting the attempts stat from. RG3 and Wilson tied at 393 pass attempts for 25th overall and Kaep was 34th at 216 but paced out for a whole year would have come in at 498 putting him in 19th right in front of Cam.

I'm convinced RG3 is a stone cold stud when healthy. He had the 4th highest completion percentage last season behind only Peyton, Rodgers and Ryan. He had the third best QB Rating and also the third highest TD:INT ratio behind only Rodgers and Brady who were the only other two QBs who toped a 4:1 ratio along with RG3 who clocked in at exactly 4:1. Obviously, we have one season for his body of work but to think he was a rookie and hasn't even come into his own yet is down right scary. And I absolutely love the fact that I own him in two separate dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't trade him for Luck right now if offered. I see no reason when healthy that he doesn't greatly improve this season.

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

Marshall I agree with... I'm not as inclined to agree with Thomas though, him and Peyton developed a special connection last year and I don't see the addition of Welker cutting into that to much. If anything Welker's presence just takes more pressure off of Thomas and hurts Decker. Harvin I'll disagree with Ponder threw about 80 more attempts than Wilson last season and Wilson was on a rookie leash, Carroll has already said that Wilson will have more say in the offense this year. Wilson also had about 7% more completion percentage than Ponder and while he threw 80 less attempts had 26TDs/10INTs compared to Ponder's 18/12. So I think Harvin has just as much value if not more on this team as he'll still see rushing attempts and he'll still see a ton of passes coming this way and will be the clear cut #1 target for Wilson. White, Cobb I'm buying on your take there. Less so on Hilton I think Roddy finishes outside of the top 15, Cobb definitely finishes outside the Top 15. Hilton on the other hand probably roughly matches his stats from last season which would make WR32 a fine number.

 

[LususV]

Kenny Britt (WR38) - A fragile, temperamental head case with a bad QB throwing to him? Exactly what I'm looking for out of my WR3. I'm not even looking at this guy until well into the 50's.

I agree with all of your comments except for Britt. Is it possible for a back-end WR3 to be 'overdrafted'? My WR3 is almost always a revolving door until I land a breakout star (last year it was Cobb in 3 leagues), so I'm willing to take a gamble on upside by that area of the draft.

 

[Khy]

Kenny Britt (WR38) - A fragile, temperamental head case with a bad QB throwing to him? Exactly what I'm looking for out of my WR3. I'm not even looking at this guy until well into the 50's.

I agree with all of your comments except for Britt. Is it possible for a back-end WR3 to be 'overdrafted'? My WR3 is almost always a revolving door until I land a breakout star (last year it was Cobb in 3 leagues), so I'm willing to take a gamble on upside by that area of the draft.

I will agree with this if for nothing else than at WR38 I'm not really expecting much anyway. I'm drafting a guy that low with the hopes of "Maybe he blows up". Britt certainly has the talent for it he could have a 9 year old throwing him the ball behind center and still be productive as has been proven. It's a matter of if he can stay healthy and keep his head on straight. Two things he has never been able to accomplish at WR38 though I"m willing to take an extremely late flier on the possibility of drafting a Top 10 WR that late in my redrafts. It's no different then when I drafted Cobb two years ago, Cruz two years ago, Reggie Bush two years ago or Alfred Morris last season in all of my leagues. Guys I felt had that "if the stars align" type of ability. I don't think they will for him but just like with Freeman this season I'm willing to burn a late round pick on that upside. Rounds 1-8 are my real 'team' after that I'm looking someone who can hit a home run with a slim jim. Britt is one of those guys.

 

[LususV]

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

I think it's a bit silly to say "take away his two best weeks where he carried your team" to make a player look worse.

Take away his first 4 weeks before the bye, after which he admitted the game slowed down for him, and you get 19 PPG weeks 6-17, +3-4 points in PPR, which is downright elite.

So, cherrypicking games, especially for a rookie, is a bit of a fool's errand. He's still going to face his share of awful rush defenses, so a highlight reel game now and again won't shock me.

 

[FF Ninja]

I like a lot of your picks, obviously I agree with Kaep and I've seen some really compelling arguments for Stafford. I'd be none to surprised if he finished outside the Top 10 this season. That said, I do believe in the hype surrounding RG3 and Wilson and I'm targeting them right around their ADPs in my of my redrafts this year. I'm also not sure where you're getting the attempts stat from. RG3 and Wilson tied at 393 pass attempts for 25th overall and Kaep was 34th at 216 but paced out for a whole year would have come in at 498 putting him in 19th right in front of Cam.

I'm convinced RG3 is a stone cold stud when healthy. He had the 4th highest completion percentage last season behind only Peyton, Rodgers and Ryan. He had the third best QB Rating and also the third highest TD:INT ratio behind only Rodgers and Brady who were the only other two QBs who toped a 4:1 ratio along with RG3 who clocked in at exactly 4:1. Obviously, we have one season for his body of work but to think he was a rookie and hasn't even come into his own yet is down right scary. And I absolutely love the fact that I own him in two separate dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't trade him for Luck right now if offered. I see no reason when healthy that he doesn't greatly improve this season.

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

Marshall I agree with... I'm not as inclined to agree with Thomas though, him and Peyton developed a special connection last year and I don't see the addition of Welker cutting into that to much. If anything Welker's presence just takes more pressure off of Thomas and hurts Decker. Harvin I'll disagree with Ponder threw about 80 more attempts than Wilson last season and Wilson was on a rookie leash, Carroll has already said that Wilson will have more say in the offense this year. Wilson also had about 7% more completion percentage than Ponder and while he threw 80 less attempts had 26TDs/10INTs compared to Ponder's 18/12. So I think Harvin has just as much value if not more on this team as he'll still see rushing attempts and he'll still see a ton of passes coming this way and will be the clear cut #1 target for Wilson. White, Cobb I'm buying on your take there. Less so on Hilton I think Roddy finishes outside of the top 15, Cobb definitely finishes outside the Top 15. Hilton on the other hand probably roughly matches his stats from last season which would make WR32 a fine number.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Offense&cat=Passing&conference=NFL&year=season_2012&sort=52&timeframe=

I was talking team attempts. Injuries happen so a guy who played 16 games (Wilson) is going to throw it more times than guys on more passing oriented teams who don't play 16 games.

Be careful projecting second year QBs (in regards to RG3). Matt Ryan looked silly good with his 7.9 YPA his rookie year but followed it up with back-to-back 6.5 YPA seasons. He still hasn't matched his rookie rate. And the TD:INT ratio can change drastically each year. Remember when people were fawning over Freeman's ratio a couple years ago? And you mentioned completion percentage, too. That usually goes up, but Newton and Ryan actually went down in their second seasons. Griffin had a great season, but even if he throws more often, I expect his per attempt metrics to decrease. If something appears too good to be true, it probably is.

Wilson is obviously talented, but I can't see him throwing more than 500 passes this year. That team runs the ball too well and the defense should actually be better than last year.

To add to your point about Martin, I think if you just remove the Oakland game he ends up around 4.0 or 4.1 ypc. But he's got no competition and his line should improve, so he'll still rack up numbers, but I think he'll be a bit of a disappointment.

As for DT, I know it is popular to think Decker is going to be the only one to suffer, but I tried to dream up a scenario in which DT's numbers don't take a hit and I just can't. If you want a repeat of last year or better (pretty much what you HAVE to expect drafting him there) then you are going to need Peyton to throw the ball over 600 times. I like Thomas' talent, but he's going to take a hit if Welker gets even just a decent slice of the pie.

On Harvin, Minnesota threw the ball about 5 times per game more than Seattle and they also had jack **** for other options so he was a focal point. Despite his lack of attention from the FF community, Rice is a legitimate WR1 in the NFL and Tate is not a bad option. Between the running game and other options, Seattle has no need to force the ball to Harvin. Some will say, they didn't pay him all that money not to use him. In reality, they paid him that money to make their team better. Becoming predictable isn't going to do that. He will be utilized, but he's not going to catch 90+ receptions on this team. In 2011, he played 16 games, caught 87 passes, rushed the ball 51 times and finished WR7. This year his price is WR7. No thanks. His situation is hard to predict, but I will be very surprised if he cracks the top 12 in PPG and he's got a decent history of missed games. Makes him a very prohibitive draft choice.

Hilton will be in a new offense. I think you have to throw out last year's numbers. He also had some very long TDs. People will say, you can't throw out one or two plays, but look at DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz. Both came down to earth. So will Hilton. Maybe he matches 50 receptions of last year, but it'll be for 15 YPR and maybe 4-5 TD which will put him probably around WR40 to WR45.

 

[Khy]

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

I think it's a bit silly to say "take away his two best weeks where he carried your team" to make a player look worse.

Take away his first 4 weeks before the bye, after which he admitted the game slowed down for him, and you get 19 PPG weeks 6-17, +3-4 points in PPR, which is downright elite.

So, cherrypicking games, especially for a rookie, is a bit of a fool's errand. He's still going to face his share of awful rush defenses, so a highlight reel game now and again won't shock me.

Sure I guess, I do this every year with players that are rated extremely high and it tends to work out well for me in the end. I want consistency not inflated points by a 40pt and 55pt game. It sounds silly and people give me crap about it on this forum every year when I bring it up and then every year it ends up panning out. If anything cherry picking games to me should hold more weight when you're looking at a rookie. If you have a rookie who is averaging 12ppg then puts out 2 monster games and he ends the season at 18ppg while only having 2 games besides the 2 monster games above that marker then it seems weird to me to consider that his baseline. Example... Beanie Wells was getting a lot of talk as someone under-rated last season because in 2011 he put up 1047 yards, 4.3ypc 10 TDs in 14 games. If you take away his two monster games his season was really lackluster otherwise. Turns out he was awful then got injured and wasn't even a sleeper in the slightest form. When I see a RB who had 9 games averaging under 4.0ypc which most people use as the baseline for a 'good' back. I see red flags, then I look at his overall and see he averaged 4.6ypc on the season. Weird. Oh, maybe because he had one game where he put up 1/5 of his total season yardage and a little more than 1/3rd his season total in TDs. That is an outlier I simply cannot ignore. Without that game he was rather mediocre all year. Anytime he faced even a mediocre rushing defense he got nowhere. You are saying his first few weeks were slow because he hadn't adjusted to the game yet what about these weeks:

Week 10: 19 carries, 68yds 3.6ypc

Week 12: 21 carries, 50 yards, 2.4ypc

Week 13: 18 carries 56 yards, 3.1ypc

Week 15 9 carries, 16 yards 1.8ypc

Week 16 18 carries, 62 yards 3.4ypc

Looks more like Vick Ballard than this all star #2 overall pick people are touting him to be this season. I could be wrong but you can't ignore the fact that he wasn't "slow to start" and he didn't have a solid average game. He had 2 monster weeks and 2-3 other good weeks. Everything else was crap. I certainly won't be drafting him unless he's sitting around in the 2nd round which he won't be.

 

[Khy]

I like a lot of your picks, obviously I agree with Kaep and I've seen some really compelling arguments for Stafford. I'd be none to surprised if he finished outside the Top 10 this season. That said, I do believe in the hype surrounding RG3 and Wilson and I'm targeting them right around their ADPs in my of my redrafts this year. I'm also not sure where you're getting the attempts stat from. RG3 and Wilson tied at 393 pass attempts for 25th overall and Kaep was 34th at 216 but paced out for a whole year would have come in at 498 putting him in 19th right in front of Cam.

I'm convinced RG3 is a stone cold stud when healthy. He had the 4th highest completion percentage last season behind only Peyton, Rodgers and Ryan. He had the third best QB Rating and also the third highest TD:INT ratio behind only Rodgers and Brady who were the only other two QBs who toped a 4:1 ratio along with RG3 who clocked in at exactly 4:1. Obviously, we have one season for his body of work but to think he was a rookie and hasn't even come into his own yet is down right scary. And I absolutely love the fact that I own him in two separate dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't trade him for Luck right now if offered. I see no reason when healthy that he doesn't greatly improve this season.

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

Marshall I agree with... I'm not as inclined to agree with Thomas though, him and Peyton developed a special connection last year and I don't see the addition of Welker cutting into that to much. If anything Welker's presence just takes more pressure off of Thomas and hurts Decker. Harvin I'll disagree with Ponder threw about 80 more attempts than Wilson last season and Wilson was on a rookie leash, Carroll has already said that Wilson will have more say in the offense this year. Wilson also had about 7% more completion percentage than Ponder and while he threw 80 less attempts had 26TDs/10INTs compared to Ponder's 18/12. So I think Harvin has just as much value if not more on this team as he'll still see rushing attempts and he'll still see a ton of passes coming this way and will be the clear cut #1 target for Wilson. White, Cobb I'm buying on your take there. Less so on Hilton I think Roddy finishes outside of the top 15, Cobb definitely finishes outside the Top 15. Hilton on the other hand probably roughly matches his stats from last season which would make WR32 a fine number.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Offense&cat=Passing&conference=NFL&year=season_2012&sort=52&timeframe=

I was talking team attempts. Injuries happen so a guy who played 16 games (Wilson) is going to throw it more times than guys on more passing oriented teams who don't play 16 games.

Be careful projecting second year QBs (in regards to RG3). Matt Ryan looked silly good with his 7.9 YPA his rookie year but followed it up with back-to-back 6.5 YPA seasons. He still hasn't matched his rookie rate. And the TD:INT ratio can change drastically each year. Remember when people were fawning over Freeman's ratio a couple years ago? And you mentioned completion percentage, too. That usually goes up, but Newton and Ryan actually went down in their second seasons. Griffin had a great season, but even if he throws more often, I expect his per attempt metrics to decrease. If something appears too good to be true, it probably is.

Wilson is obviously talented, but I can't see him throwing more than 500 passes this year. That team runs the ball too well and the defense should actually be better than last year.

To add to your point about Martin, I think if you just remove the Oakland game he ends up around 4.0 or 4.1 ypc. But he's got no competition and his line should improve, so he'll still rack up numbers, but I think he'll be a bit of a disappointment.

As for DT, I know it is popular to think Decker is going to be the only one to suffer, but I tried to dream up a scenario in which DT's numbers don't take a hit and I just can't. If you want a repeat of last year or better (pretty much what you HAVE to expect drafting him there) then you are going to need Peyton to throw the ball over 600 times. I like Thomas' talent, but he's going to take a hit if Welker gets even just a decent slice of the pie.

On Harvin, Minnesota threw the ball about 5 times per game more than Seattle and they also had jack **** for other options so he was a focal point. Despite his lack of attention from the FF community, Rice is a legitimate WR1 in the NFL and Tate is not a bad option. Between the running game and other options, Seattle has no need to force the ball to Harvin. Some will say, they didn't pay him all that money not to use him. In reality, they paid him that money to make their team better. Becoming predictable isn't going to do that. He will be utilized, but he's not going to catch 90+ receptions on this team. In 2011, he played 16 games, caught 87 passes, rushed the ball 51 times and finished WR7. This year his price is WR7. No thanks. His situation is hard to predict, but I will be very surprised if he cracks the top 12 in PPG and he's got a decent history of missed games. Makes him a very prohibitive draft choice.

Hilton will be in a new offense. I think you have to throw out last year's numbers. He also had some very long TDs. People will say, you can't throw out one or two plays, but look at DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz. Both came down to earth. So will Hilton. Maybe he matches 50 receptions of last year, but it'll be for 15 YPR and maybe 4-5 TD which will put him probably around WR40 to WR45.

On Martin: I discussed him above in a lot of detail. My point is he's going over guys like Charles right now who if you look at his stats should have been even higher last year. If the team wasn't so awful. He had 3 games where he saw 5, 6 and 9 carries and never was able to get going. Take those out he had 3 games under 4.0ypc and and only 2 more on top of that under 4.5ypc. He had 9 games of 4.5ypc or higher... Martin had 9 games under 4.0ypc. It's just a consistency thing for me. I like going into each week thinking "100 yards and a 90% chance at a TD" not "50 yards and no TD, but maybe if the Gods are on my side I'll get his one 250yd 4 TD game this week and win because of it".

I don't think Harvin finishes in WR7 but I think he'll round out the Top 10 or damn near close to it. Close enough that he's worthy somewhat of that ADP. I'd much prefer it if he was ADP around WR12 though I think that'd be more suitable.

 

[FF Ninja]

On Martin: I discussed him above in a lot of detail. My point is he's going over guys like Charles right now who if you look at his stats should have been even higher last year. If the team wasn't so awful. He had 3 games where he saw 5, 6 and 9 carries and never was able to get going. Take those out he had 3 games under 4.0ypc and and only 2 more on top of that under 4.5ypc. He had 9 games of 4.5ypc or higher... Martin had 9 games under 4.0ypc. It's just a consistency thing for me. I like going into each week thinking "100 yards and a 90% chance at a TD" not "50 yards and no TD, but maybe if the Gods are on my side I'll get his one 250yd 4 TD game this week and win because of it".

I don't think Harvin finishes in WR7 but I think he'll round out the Top 10 or damn near close to it. Close enough that he's worthy somewhat of that ADP. I'd much prefer it if he was ADP around WR12 though I think that'd be more suitable.

I think we generally agree on Martin. Personally, I'm taking Lynch over Martin. I don't know why, but I've never really trusted Charles. Everything sure looks rosy for him this year, but Lynch is the easy choice for me. Durable with plenty of touchdowns. That's what you need in the first round.

If you don't think a guy will finish WR7, you shouldn't draft him at WR7. I don't even like to draft guys who I think will finish where I'm drafting them. Everyone should be targeting guys they think will outperform their draft position. Not that there is no place for consistency and dependability, but drafting a guy at WR7 and expecting a WR10-12 finish is not going to win you any championships (outside of blind luck anyway). I really like Fitz and AJ and will gladly draft them over Harvin this year.

Steven Jackson

That was a great post. I've been thoroughly on board with Jackson this year. You summed up quite nicely why everyone else should be as well.

 

[LususV]

You are saying his first few weeks were slow because he hadn't adjusted to the game yet what about these weeks:

Week 10: 19 carries, 68yds 3.6ypc

Week 12: 21 carries, 50 yards, 2.4ypc

Week 13: 18 carries 56 yards, 3.1ypc

Week 15 9 carries, 16 yards 1.8ypc

Week 16 18 carries, 62 yards 3.4ypc

Looks more like Vick Ballard than this all star #2 overall pick people are touting him to be this season. I could be wrong but you can't ignore the fact that he wasn't "slow to start" and he didn't have a solid average game. He had 2 monster weeks and 2-3 other good weeks. Everything else was crap. I certainly won't be drafting him unless he's sitting around in the 2nd round which he won't be.

Do you remember what happened to Josh Freeman down the stretch? It will take a lot of convincing for you to get me to pin the blame on the 0-41 loss to New Orleans on Doug Martin.

 

[LususV]

I'm squarely in the camp that thinks consistency is overrated - give me 40 point weeks to balance out the duds - I prefer that to a flat 15 a week.

 

[Khy]

I'm squarely in the camp that thinks consistency is overrated - give me 40 point weeks to balance out the duds - I prefer that to a flat 15 a week.

I guess, I'd rather score 90-110 points week to week then score 80 points most weeks but randomly shoot off to 125 a week or two when things click. The past two years in my big money redraft I've averaged 99.8ppg (10-3) and 101.2ppg (11-2) both seasons the next closest average didn't even crack 90ppg (we're a lower scoring league). I won each of those seasons, why? Consistency. So you can say consistency is overrated but I'll take Arian Foster and his 80yds and 1 TD every game any day over Doug Martin and his 50 yards and 0 TDs most games a one or two games that define the season. You can think it's overrated but consistently being the best is what wins fantasy championship not randomly getting lucky a few weeks. Doug Martin is being hyped up WAY to much right now and in my opinion is almost a sure thing to severely disappoint his ADP.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

On Martin: I discussed him above in a lot of detail. My point is he's going over guys like Charles right now who if you look at his stats should have been even higher last year. If the team wasn't so awful. He had 3 games where he saw 5, 6 and 9 carries and never was able to get going. Take those out he had 3 games under 4.0ypc and and only 2 more on top of that under 4.5ypc. He had 9 games of 4.5ypc or higher... Martin had 9 games under 4.0ypc. It's just a consistency thing for me. I like going into each week thinking "100 yards and a 90% chance at a TD" not "50 yards and no TD, but maybe if the Gods are on my side I'll get his one 250yd 4 TD game this week and win because of it".

I completely agree that consistency from your top guys at each position is a key to a FF team's overall success.

Having said that, in my opinion 16 games is too small a sample size to categorize anyone as "consistent" vs. "hot and cold". I don't have the data to prove it, but I'd be willing to bet that consistency (I'm defining it as the standard deviation of PPG scored over a season) is as prone to mean reversion as any other rookie statistic.

Put another way: The average weekly SD of the top 30 RB's PPG last season (using MFL scoring) was 7.73. Doug Martin's SD was the highest of any RB, at 11.75. I would wager that in 2013, Martin's weekly SD will be closer - probably much closer - to the average of the top 30 than to his 2012 number. Now, if after 3 seasons the Hamster is still putting up multiple 35+ point weeks and multiple single-digit weeks each year, then I'd start applying an appropriate discount to reflect concerns about his week-to-week consistency in estimating his value - but I think that's unlikely to happen.

 

[Grahamburn]

Reasons Doug Martin is being hyped:

First round talent.

Finished RB2 as a rookie.

He's young.

No competition for touches anywhere.

Good with potential to be great offense.

Arguably best o-line in football.

Improved as a runner and receiver as the season went on.

Improving defense.

Weak defensive division.

You don't like him because he lacked consistency his rookie season? In weeks 2-6 Adrian Peterson didn't score a touchdown and only cracked 100 yards rushing once. All of these guys have a few tough games each season.

With the game slowing down a little for him we'll see Doug be more consistent this year. You can't really label him as "inconsistent" because of a few down games in his rookie year.

 

[msudaisy26]

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

I think it's a bit silly to say "take away his two best weeks where he carried your team" to make a player look worse. Take away his first 4 weeks before the bye, after which he admitted the game slowed down for him, and you get 19 PPG weeks 6-17, +3-4 points in PPR, which is downright elite. So, cherrypicking games, especially for a rookie, is a bit of a fool's errand. He's still going to face his share of awful rush defenses, so a highlight reel game now and again won't shock me.

I remember this Adrian Peterson guy that had these stats his rookie year 238 rush attempts 1341 rush yards 19 receptions 268 yards and 13 total touchdowns. In weeks 5 and 8 of that season he got 530 of his rush yards 6 touchdowns and 2 catches for 28 yards so about 1/3rd of his production in 2 monster games.Now look at Doug Martin in his rookie year 319 rushes for 1454 yards 49 catches for 472 yards and 12 total touchdowns. In weeks 8 and 9 of that season he had 386 yards rushing and 7 catches for 100 yards and 6 total touchdowns so about 1/4 of his production in 2 monster games.Kind of creepy how close they are, and it turned out pretty good for that Peterson fellow.

 

[FF Ninja]

Reasons Doug Martin is being hyped:

First round talent.

Finished RB2 as a rookie.

He's young.

No competition for touches anywhere.

Good with potential to be great offense.

Arguably best o-line in football.

Improved as a runner and receiver as the season went on.

Improving defense.

Weak defensive division.

You don't like him because he lacked consistency his rookie season? In weeks 2-6 Adrian Peterson didn't score a touchdown and only cracked 100 yards rushing once. All of these guys have a few tough games each season.

With the game slowing down a little for him we'll see Doug be more consistent this year. You can't really label him as "inconsistent" because of a few down games in his rookie year.

Did he? People rail on Moreno for his "average" performance to finish the season and I'm not arguing it wasn't average (at best), but let's call it the same for both sides... Here are both players in the last 6 games of the season:

Player car yds ypc TD tgt rec yds ypr TDMoreno 131 513 3.9 3 25 20 155 7.8 0Martin 122 454 3.7 4 29 22 153 7.0 0

Edit: fixed formatting of stats

 

[Keith Lewis]

All it takes is a ridiculous, incoherent and uneducated podcast and Kaepernick will fall right into my lap. Thanks for the extra money this year Cecil and Matt.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'm not sure why Moreno is the comparison here. The Bucs as a team were pretty bad their last 6 games. The Broncos were pretty good.

Martin looked like a better player in the second half like a light came on for him. That's all I'm saying.

Cherry picking his stats from Tampa's worst 6 games of the year isn't really all too fair, and two of them against New Orleans and Denver were blowouts where Martin only got 33 total touches. He did score 4 TDs and had 3 100 yard games in those 6, however.

 

[Khy]

I'm not sure why Moreno is the comparison here. The Bucs as a team were pretty bad their last 6 games. The Broncos were pretty good.

Martin looked like a better player in the second half like a light came on for him. That's all I'm saying.

Cherry picking his stats from Tampa's worst 6 games of the year isn't really all too fair, and two of them against New Orleans and Denver were blowouts where Martin only got 33 total touches. He did score 4 TDs and had 3 100 yard games in those 6, however.

He is comparing Moreno's rookie season to Martin's rookie season. Moreno was said after 2009 to have had a very amazing start to his rookie year and trailed off at the end. However if you look at the stats posted Moreno actually had a better end to his rookie season than Martin. Moreno was also on a 8-8 Broncos team at the time who lost 4 of their last 5 games. Very similar situation to the Bucs this is also back when Denver had Kyle Orton under center. Freeman > Kyle Orton.

 

[Warrior]

Quaterbacks

Kaepernick (QB7), Wilson (QB9), and RG3 (QB11) all have too much hype for guys on teams that finished 30, 31, and 32 in pass attempts last year. Silliness.

Stafford (QB8) is being drafted at his ceiling. He's not going to repeat 40 TDs again, much less get 700 attempts.

Running Backs

FWIW, I agree with your pick of ADP. I love to watch him play, but I'm not betting on him this year.

Ray Rice (RB4) will not see nearly as many receptions in a Caldwell offense as he did in Cameron's offense. He also has a RB behind him who is probably a better pure runner than he is. I expect a significantly decreased workload.

I won't be taking Martin at RB3, but his workload should keep him top 10.

Ridley (RB14) was a top target of mine last year, but I won't touch him this year. He was less effective at the goal line than BJGE was and he's now got a lot of competition on the team with Blount and a healthy Bolden.

Murray (RB16) was not only disappointing due to injuries, but also when he was healthy.

Rookies. Bell, Ball, and Lacy are all going around the same spot. The bust rate is pretty high for 2nd round RBs. Picking which one will actually have success in his rookie year, much less stand the test of time, is a crapshoot.

Wide Receivers

Marshall (WR3) is a safe bet to finish top 10, but won't come close to WR3.

Thomas (WR6) will see a decrease in targets. Much like Marshall, people are paying for last year's stats.

Harvin (WR7) is going to a team that doesn't throw the ball much and has plenty of talented RBs. I'll be shocked if he sees over 30 carries or 80 receptions.

White (WR8) finished WR10 last year and the targets are trending away from him (5 year low last year) and towards Julio yet White is being drafted above last year's finish. Craziness.

Cobb (WR11) is not a touchdown guy nor a YPR guy and is on an offense that hasn't seen a guy break the low 80's in receptions in quite some time.

Hilton (WR32) led the league in drop rate and could easily be bumped to WR3 by the newly signed DHB.

Tight Ends

Can't really take issue with any of the tight ends. I won't draft one early, but I don't see anyone up there who I think is going to be a bust.

I like a lot of your picks, obviously I agree with Kaep and I've seen some really compelling arguments for Stafford. I'd be none to surprised if he finished outside the Top 10 this season. That said, I do believe in the hype surrounding RG3 and Wilson and I'm targeting them right around their ADPs in my of my redrafts this year. I'm also not sure where you're getting the attempts stat from. RG3 and Wilson tied at 393 pass attempts for 25th overall and Kaep was 34th at 216 but paced out for a whole year would have come in at 498 putting him in 19th right in front of Cam.

I'm convinced RG3 is a stone cold stud when healthy. He had the 4th highest completion percentage last season behind only Peyton, Rodgers and Ryan. He had the third best QB Rating and also the third highest TD:INT ratio behind only Rodgers and Brady who were the only other two QBs who toped a 4:1 ratio along with RG3 who clocked in at exactly 4:1. Obviously, we have one season for his body of work but to think he was a rookie and hasn't even come into his own yet is down right scary. And I absolutely love the fact that I own him in two separate dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't trade him for Luck right now if offered. I see no reason when healthy that he doesn't greatly improve this season.

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

Marshall I agree with... I'm not as inclined to agree with Thomas though, him and Peyton developed a special connection last year and I don't see the addition of Welker cutting into that to much. If anything Welker's presence just takes more pressure off of Thomas and hurts Decker. Harvin I'll disagree with Ponder threw about 80 more attempts than Wilson last season and Wilson was on a rookie leash, Carroll has already said that Wilson will have more say in the offense this year. Wilson also had about 7% more completion percentage than Ponder and while he threw 80 less attempts had 26TDs/10INTs compared to Ponder's 18/12. So I think Harvin has just as much value if not more on this team as he'll still see rushing attempts and he'll still see a ton of passes coming this way and will be the clear cut #1 target for Wilson. White, Cobb I'm buying on your take there. Less so on Hilton I think Roddy finishes outside of the top 15, Cobb definitely finishes outside the Top 15. Hilton on the other hand probably roughly matches his stats from last season which would make WR32 a fine number.

I always laugh when I see analysis like this. You're removing Martin's best 2 games, but leaving everyone else's best 2 games? How does that make any sense at all? What makes it even more illogical is that he did it TWICE. In the same season. I'm sure you probably applied the same faulty logic to Peterson a few years back when he exploded and starting breaking individual rushing game records. It would have been silly then and it's silly now.

Even past that...did Martin not earn those yards? He had big games last year, meaning he's more likely to have big games this year than anyone who hasn't shown similar ability. Why would you punish someone for having two really good games? It's like you're saying those big games make it less likely to happen in the future.

It always baffles me to see such sloppy logic...yikes.

 

[Instinctive]

 

[FreeBaGeL]

No way I'd call Gronk overvalued. Maybe the opposite. When the guy is on the field he's arguably one of, if not the most valuable player in FF. At the end of the 4th round, where history tells us you're more likely to draft a bust than not anyway, the guy you role the dice on may as well be one with substantial upside that we've already seen before.

 

[Khy]

Quaterbacks

Kaepernick (QB7), Wilson (QB9), and RG3 (QB11) all have too much hype for guys on teams that finished 30, 31, and 32 in pass attempts last year. Silliness.

Stafford (QB8) is being drafted at his ceiling. He's not going to repeat 40 TDs again, much less get 700 attempts.

Running Backs

FWIW, I agree with your pick of ADP. I love to watch him play, but I'm not betting on him this year.

Ray Rice (RB4) will not see nearly as many receptions in a Caldwell offense as he did in Cameron's offense. He also has a RB behind him who is probably a better pure runner than he is. I expect a significantly decreased workload.

I won't be taking Martin at RB3, but his workload should keep him top 10.

Ridley (RB14) was a top target of mine last year, but I won't touch him this year. He was less effective at the goal line than BJGE was and he's now got a lot of competition on the team with Blount and a healthy Bolden.

Murray (RB16) was not only disappointing due to injuries, but also when he was healthy.

Rookies. Bell, Ball, and Lacy are all going around the same spot. The bust rate is pretty high for 2nd round RBs. Picking which one will actually have success in his rookie year, much less stand the test of time, is a crapshoot.

Wide Receivers

Marshall (WR3) is a safe bet to finish top 10, but won't come close to WR3.

Thomas (WR6) will see a decrease in targets. Much like Marshall, people are paying for last year's stats.

Harvin (WR7) is going to a team that doesn't throw the ball much and has plenty of talented RBs. I'll be shocked if he sees over 30 carries or 80 receptions.

White (WR8) finished WR10 last year and the targets are trending away from him (5 year low last year) and towards Julio yet White is being drafted above last year's finish. Craziness.

Cobb (WR11) is not a touchdown guy nor a YPR guy and is on an offense that hasn't seen a guy break the low 80's in receptions in quite some time.

Hilton (WR32) led the league in drop rate and could easily be bumped to WR3 by the newly signed DHB.

Tight Ends

Can't really take issue with any of the tight ends. I won't draft one early, but I don't see anyone up there who I think is going to be a bust.

I like a lot of your picks, obviously I agree with Kaep and I've seen some really compelling arguments for Stafford. I'd be none to surprised if he finished outside the Top 10 this season. That said, I do believe in the hype surrounding RG3 and Wilson and I'm targeting them right around their ADPs in my of my redrafts this year. I'm also not sure where you're getting the attempts stat from. RG3 and Wilson tied at 393 pass attempts for 25th overall and Kaep was 34th at 216 but paced out for a whole year would have come in at 498 putting him in 19th right in front of Cam.

I'm convinced RG3 is a stone cold stud when healthy. He had the 4th highest completion percentage last season behind only Peyton, Rodgers and Ryan. He had the third best QB Rating and also the third highest TD:INT ratio behind only Rodgers and Brady who were the only other two QBs who toped a 4:1 ratio along with RG3 who clocked in at exactly 4:1. Obviously, we have one season for his body of work but to think he was a rookie and hasn't even come into his own yet is down right scary. And I absolutely love the fact that I own him in two separate dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't trade him for Luck right now if offered. I see no reason when healthy that he doesn't greatly improve this season.

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

Marshall I agree with... I'm not as inclined to agree with Thomas though, him and Peyton developed a special connection last year and I don't see the addition of Welker cutting into that to much. If anything Welker's presence just takes more pressure off of Thomas and hurts Decker. Harvin I'll disagree with Ponder threw about 80 more attempts than Wilson last season and Wilson was on a rookie leash, Carroll has already said that Wilson will have more say in the offense this year. Wilson also had about 7% more completion percentage than Ponder and while he threw 80 less attempts had 26TDs/10INTs compared to Ponder's 18/12. So I think Harvin has just as much value if not more on this team as he'll still see rushing attempts and he'll still see a ton of passes coming this way and will be the clear cut #1 target for Wilson. White, Cobb I'm buying on your take there. Less so on Hilton I think Roddy finishes outside of the top 15, Cobb definitely finishes outside the Top 15. Hilton on the other hand probably roughly matches his stats from last season which would make WR32 a fine number.

I always laugh when I see analysis like this. You're removing Martin's best 2 games, but leaving everyone else's best 2 games? How does that make any sense at all? What makes it even more illogical is that he did it TWICE. In the same season. I'm sure you probably applied the same faulty logic to Peterson a few years back when he exploded and starting breaking individual rushing game records. It would have been silly then and it's silly now.

Even past that...did Martin not earn those yards? He had big games last year, meaning he's more likely to have big games this year than anyone who hasn't shown similar ability. Why would you punish someone for having two really good games? It's like you're saying those big games make it less likely to happen in the future.

It always baffles me to see such sloppy logic...yikes.

It isn't 'sloppy logic' I will break down the numbers and try to enlighten you on what I'm actually trying to say.

RB1: Adrian Peterson (329.40): 20.58ppg, when taking away his two monster games (Weeks 9 & 17) and then redoing his average we come to 18.85ppg. So almost less than a 2 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 329.40 thru 16 games to 264.00 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 20% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB2: Doug Martin (288.10): 18ppg, when taking away his two monster games (Weeks 8 & 9) and then redoing his average we come to 14.28ppg. So almost a 4 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 288.10 thru 16 games to 200.00 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 30.7% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB3: Arian Foster (284.5): 17.78ppg, when taking away his two best games of the season (Weeks 2 and 12) and then redoing his average we come to 16.75ppg less than a 1 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 284.50 thru 16 games to 234.60 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 17.5% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB4: Marshawn Lynch (260.10): 16.25ppg, when taking away his two best games of the season (Weeks 4 and 14) and then redoing his average we come to 14.7ppg about a 1.5 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 260.10 thru 16 games to 205.80 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 21% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB5: Ray Rice (252.60): 15.78ppg, when taking away his two best games of the season (Weeks 3 and 16) and then redoing his average we come to 14.59ppg or slightly higher than a 1 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 252.60 thru 16 games to 204.30 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 19.2% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB6: Alfred Morris (249.6): 15.56ppg, when taking away his two best games of the season (Weeks 17 and 15) and then redoing his average we come to 13.36ppg or slightly higher than a 2 ppg drop in average. His overall points also drop from 249.60 thru 16 games to 187.10 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 25% of his overall points throughout 2012.

So ranking these by the % of their season encompassed by these two games games? This is a pretty solid baseline for consistency in my opinion.

Arian Foster: 16.75%

Ray Rice: 19.20%

Adrian Peterson: 20.00%

Marshawn Lynch: 21.00%

Alfred Morris: 25.00%

Doug Martin: 30.70%

If you would prefer their average PPG afterwards then it comes out like so:

Adrian Peterson: 18.85ppg

Arian Foster: 16.75ppg

Marshawn Lynch: 14.70ppg

Ray Rice: 14.59ppg

Doug Martin: 14.28ppg

Alfred Morris: 13.36ppg

Also realize that both AP and Alfred Morris had one of their top games in Week 17 if you refactor it out and instead take their 3rd highest game (2nd fantasy relevant) you get different numbers. So here you have it, I was 100% fair to all the other running backs that we are talking about in the same league as Martin and gave them the same exact treatment as Martin. These points are all used from my standard scoring ppr league. In a non-ppr league Alfred Morris would have a higher PPG average after the equation than Doug Martin.

My main point is that for people who put a lot of weight in the consistency of their #1 picks in a redraft, Doug Martin appears a lot riskier than the #2 overall RB he seemed to be last season because of the two monster games he had against two of the worst run defenses in football. There is more or less no way I'm drafting him over any of the guys mentioned here or CJ Spiller, McCoy or Charles this season because of it. You cannot ignore that it's scary that 2 games or 1/8 of the NFL season equated for nearly 1/3rd of his overall production last year. While a lot of people won just because they had him starting in 8 & 9 a lot of people lost way more games from having him on staff in other weeks where he performed more like Vick Ballard than any of the other guys on this list who were far more consistent and put up significantly less duds.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

My main point is that for people who put a lot of weight in the consistency of their #1 picks in a redraft, Doug Martin appears a lot riskier than the #2 overall RB he seemed to be last season because of the two monster games he had against two of the worst run defenses in football. There is more or less no way I'm drafting him over any of the guys mentioned here or CJ Spiller, McCoy or Charles this season because of it. You cannot ignore that it's scary that 2 games or 1/8 of the NFL season equated for nearly 1/3rd of his overall production last year. While a lot of people won just because they had him starting in 8 & 9 a lot of people lost way more games from having him on staff in other weeks where he performed more like Vick Ballard than any of the other guys on this list who were far more consistent and put up significantly less duds.

I'll reiterate my point from earlier but, because apparently nobody was listening, this time I'll put money behind it.

Doug Martin's standard deviation in points per game, using FBG MFL scoring, in his rookie season was 11.75. I will bet anyone on this thread $50 that next season, Doug Martin's standard deviation in PPG, under that same scoring system, will be lower than this.

If you want to argue that Rice or Foster make better choices than Martin because they're more proven, or run behind a better OL, or will get more touches, or whatever, then be my guest. But arguing that "Martin's performance was inconsistent last year, so it's going to be inconsistent this year", when all you have to go on is a 16-game NFL sample, is flawed thinking.

 

[cstu]

My main point is that for people who put a lot of weight in the consistency of their #1 picks in a redraft, Doug Martin appears a lot riskier than the #2 overall RB he seemed to be last season because of the two monster games he had against two of the worst run defenses in football. There is more or less no way I'm drafting him over any of the guys mentioned here or CJ Spiller, McCoy or Charles this season because of it. You cannot ignore that it's scary that 2 games or 1/8 of the NFL season equated for nearly 1/3rd of his overall production last year. While a lot of people won just because they had him starting in 8 & 9 a lot of people lost way more games from having him on staff in other weeks where he performed more like Vick Ballard than any of the other guys on this list who were far more consistent and put up significantly less duds.

I'll reiterate my point from earlier but, because apparently nobody was listening, this time I'll put money behind it.

Doug Martin's standard deviation in points per game, using FBG MFL scoring, in his rookie season was 11.75. I will bet anyone on this thread $50 that next season, Doug Martin's standard deviation in PPG, under that same scoring system, will be lower than this.

If you want to argue that Rice or Foster make better choices than Martin because they're more proven, or run behind a better OL, or will get more touches, or whatever, then be my guest. But arguing that "Martin's performance was inconsistent last year, so it's going to be inconsistent this year", when all you have to go on is a 16-game NFL sample, is flawed thinking.

I think he'll be more consistent but score slightly fewer points. He could be 'over-valued' in terms of where he's drafted but he's as safe as anyone to end up a top 10 back at the end of the season IMO.

 

[Khy]

My main point is that for people who put a lot of weight in the consistency of their #1 picks in a redraft, Doug Martin appears a lot riskier than the #2 overall RB he seemed to be last season because of the two monster games he had against two of the worst run defenses in football. There is more or less no way I'm drafting him over any of the guys mentioned here or CJ Spiller, McCoy or Charles this season because of it. You cannot ignore that it's scary that 2 games or 1/8 of the NFL season equated for nearly 1/3rd of his overall production last year. While a lot of people won just because they had him starting in 8 & 9 a lot of people lost way more games from having him on staff in other weeks where he performed more like Vick Ballard than any of the other guys on this list who were far more consistent and put up significantly less duds.

I'll reiterate my point from earlier but, because apparently nobody was listening, this time I'll put money behind it.

Doug Martin's standard deviation in points per game, using FBG MFL scoring, in his rookie season was 11.75. I will bet anyone on this thread $50 that next season, Doug Martin's standard deviation in PPG, under that same scoring system, will be lower than this.

If you want to argue that Rice or Foster make better choices than Martin because they're more proven, or run behind a better OL, or will get more touches, or whatever, then be my guest. But arguing that "Martin's performance was inconsistent last year, so it's going to be inconsistent this year", when all you have to go on is a 16-game NFL sample, is flawed thinking.

I think he'll be more consistent but score slightly fewer points. He could be 'over-valued' in terms of where he's drafted but he's as safe as anyone to end up a top 10 back at the end of the season IMO.

I'm not debating he'll be a top 10 RB this season, I'm only saying for people drafting him between 1.01 and 1.03 I feel like you're going to be severely disappointed. For the people drafting him, I hope he's more consistent and has a lower point value overall. Cause when I look at the other backs I compared him to I see people like Foster who scored less than him but really only had like 1 game with less than 100yds or no TDs. Every other week he put up 100yds or a TD, that is the type of back who wins you a championship. Morris was very similar had 2 duds all year and probably finished stronger than any RB last year besides AP. I'd love to pair Morris with someone like Charles, Spiller, AP, Foster etc. People love to look at finishes look at this guys finishes:

Week 12 @ DAL: 24 att/113 yards/1TD

Week 13 v NYG: 22 att/124 yards

Week 14: v BAL: 23 att/129 yards/ 1TD

Week 15 @ CLE: 27 att/87 yards/2 TD

Week 16 @ PHI: 22 att/91 yards/ 1 TD

Week 17 v DAL: 33 att/200 yards/3 TD

Martin never came close to that level of consistency at any point, the best he did was put two good weeks together once before having a dud and had 7 games under 75 yards with 0 TDs. I'm just not buying him as a top 3 RB this season. I figure he'll finish 8-10 simply because of his attempts. Otherwise I like the group of Charles/AP/Foster/Spiller/McCoy to finish in the Top 3.

 

[nirad3]

Quaterbacks

Kaepernick (QB7), Wilson (QB9), and RG3 (QB11) all have too much hype for guys on teams that finished 30, 31, and 32 in pass attempts last year. Silliness.

Stafford (QB8) is being drafted at his ceiling. He's not going to repeat 40 TDs again, much less get 700 attempts.

Running Backs

FWIW, I agree with your pick of ADP. I love to watch him play, but I'm not betting on him this year.

Ray Rice (RB4) will not see nearly as many receptions in a Caldwell offense as he did in Cameron's offense. He also has a RB behind him who is probably a better pure runner than he is. I expect a significantly decreased workload.

I won't be taking Martin at RB3, but his workload should keep him top 10.

Ridley (RB14) was a top target of mine last year, but I won't touch him this year. He was less effective at the goal line than BJGE was and he's now got a lot of competition on the team with Blount and a healthy Bolden.

Murray (RB16) was not only disappointing due to injuries, but also when he was healthy.

Rookies. Bell, Ball, and Lacy are all going around the same spot. The bust rate is pretty high for 2nd round RBs. Picking which one will actually have success in his rookie year, much less stand the test of time, is a crapshoot.

Wide Receivers

Marshall (WR3) is a safe bet to finish top 10, but won't come close to WR3.

Thomas (WR6) will see a decrease in targets. Much like Marshall, people are paying for last year's stats.

Harvin (WR7) is going to a team that doesn't throw the ball much and has plenty of talented RBs. I'll be shocked if he sees over 30 carries or 80 receptions.

White (WR8) finished WR10 last year and the targets are trending away from him (5 year low last year) and towards Julio yet White is being drafted above last year's finish. Craziness.

Cobb (WR11) is not a touchdown guy nor a YPR guy and is on an offense that hasn't seen a guy break the low 80's in receptions in quite some time.

Hilton (WR32) led the league in drop rate and could easily be bumped to WR3 by the newly signed DHB.

Tight Ends

Can't really take issue with any of the tight ends. I won't draft one early, but I don't see anyone up there who I think is going to be a bust.

I like a lot of your picks, obviously I agree with Kaep and I've seen some really compelling arguments for Stafford. I'd be none to surprised if he finished outside the Top 10 this season. That said, I do believe in the hype surrounding RG3 and Wilson and I'm targeting them right around their ADPs in my of my redrafts this year. I'm also not sure where you're getting the attempts stat from. RG3 and Wilson tied at 393 pass attempts for 25th overall and Kaep was 34th at 216 but paced out for a whole year would have come in at 498 putting him in 19th right in front of Cam.

I'm convinced RG3 is a stone cold stud when healthy. He had the 4th highest completion percentage last season behind only Peyton, Rodgers and Ryan. He had the third best QB Rating and also the third highest TD:INT ratio behind only Rodgers and Brady who were the only other two QBs who toped a 4:1 ratio along with RG3 who clocked in at exactly 4:1. Obviously, we have one season for his body of work but to think he was a rookie and hasn't even come into his own yet is down right scary. And I absolutely love the fact that I own him in two separate dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't trade him for Luck right now if offered. I see no reason when healthy that he doesn't greatly improve this season.

I agree on Ray Rice and Doug Martin. Martin had two monsterous games last season which really inflated his ending point value. If you drop his week 8 and 9 from the equation his ppg average drops by about 6 points on the season. Which clearly shows they were outliers and puts him from RB2 last season down to around RB9 based on his average ppg. Big big difference.

Marshall I agree with... I'm not as inclined to agree with Thomas though, him and Peyton developed a special connection last year and I don't see the addition of Welker cutting into that to much. If anything Welker's presence just takes more pressure off of Thomas and hurts Decker. Harvin I'll disagree with Ponder threw about 80 more attempts than Wilson last season and Wilson was on a rookie leash, Carroll has already said that Wilson will have more say in the offense this year. Wilson also had about 7% more completion percentage than Ponder and while he threw 80 less attempts had 26TDs/10INTs compared to Ponder's 18/12. So I think Harvin has just as much value if not more on this team as he'll still see rushing attempts and he'll still see a ton of passes coming this way and will be the clear cut #1 target for Wilson. White, Cobb I'm buying on your take there. Less so on Hilton I think Roddy finishes outside of the top 15, Cobb definitely finishes outside the Top 15. Hilton on the other hand probably roughly matches his stats from last season which would make WR32 a fine number.

I always laugh when I see analysis like this. You're removing Martin's best 2 games, but leaving everyone else's best 2 games? How does that make any sense at all? What makes it even more illogical is that he did it TWICE. In the same season. I'm sure you probably applied the same faulty logic to Peterson a few years back when he exploded and starting breaking individual rushing game records. It would have been silly then and it's silly now.

Even past that...did Martin not earn those yards? He had big games last year, meaning he's more likely to have big games this year than anyone who hasn't shown similar ability. Why would you punish someone for having two really good games? It's like you're saying those big games make it less likely to happen in the future.

It always baffles me to see such sloppy logic...yikes.

It isn't 'sloppy logic' I will break down the numbers and try to enlighten you on what I'm actually trying to say.

RB1: Adrian Peterson (329.40): 20.58ppg, when taking away his two monster games (Weeks 9 & 17) and then redoing his average we come to 18.85ppg. So almost less than a 2 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 329.40 thru 16 games to 264.00 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 20% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB2: Doug Martin (288.10): 18ppg, when taking away his two monster games (Weeks 8 & 9) and then redoing his average we come to 14.28ppg. So almost a 4 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 288.10 thru 16 games to 200.00 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 30.7% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB3: Arian Foster (284.5): 17.78ppg, when taking away his two best games of the season (Weeks 2 and 12) and then redoing his average we come to 16.75ppg less than a 1 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 284.50 thru 16 games to 234.60 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 17.5% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB4: Marshawn Lynch (260.10): 16.25ppg, when taking away his two best games of the season (Weeks 4 and 14) and then redoing his average we come to 14.7ppg about a 1.5 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 260.10 thru 16 games to 205.80 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 21% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB5: Ray Rice (252.60): 15.78ppg, when taking away his two best games of the season (Weeks 3 and 16) and then redoing his average we come to 14.59ppg or slightly higher than a 1 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 252.60 thru 16 games to 204.30 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 19.2% of his overall points throughout 2012.

RB6: Alfred Morris (249.6): 15.56ppg, when taking away his two best games of the season (Weeks 17 and 15) and then redoing his average we come to 13.36ppg or slightly higher than a 2 ppg drop in average. His overall points also drop from 249.60 thru 16 games to 187.10 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 25% of his overall points throughout 2012.

So ranking these by the % of their season encompassed by these two games games? This is a pretty solid baseline for consistency in my opinion.

Arian Foster: 16.75%

Ray Rice: 19.20%

Adrian Peterson: 20.00%

Marshawn Lynch: 21.00%

Alfred Morris: 25.00%

Doug Martin: 30.70%

If you would prefer their average PPG afterwards then it comes out like so:

Adrian Peterson: 18.85ppg

Arian Foster: 16.75ppg

Marshawn Lynch: 14.70ppg

Ray Rice: 14.59ppg

Doug Martin: 14.28ppg

Alfred Morris: 13.36ppg

Also realize that both AP and Alfred Morris had one of their top games in Week 17 if you refactor it out and instead take their 3rd highest game (2nd fantasy relevant) you get different numbers. So here you have it, I was 100% fair to all the other running backs that we are talking about in the same league as Martin and gave them the same exact treatment as Martin. These points are all used from my standard scoring ppr league. In a non-ppr league Alfred Morris would have a higher PPG average after the equation than Doug Martin.

My main point is that for people who put a lot of weight in the consistency of their #1 picks in a redraft, Doug Martin appears a lot riskier than the #2 overall RB he seemed to be last season because of the two monster games he had against two of the worst run defenses in football. There is more or less no way I'm drafting him over any of the guys mentioned here or CJ Spiller, McCoy or Charles this season because of it. You cannot ignore that it's scary that 2 games or 1/8 of the NFL season equated for nearly 1/3rd of his overall production last year. While a lot of people won just because they had him starting in 8 & 9 a lot of people lost way more games from having him on staff in other weeks where he performed more like Vick Ballard than any of the other guys on this list who were far more consistent and put up significantly less duds.

It's knowledge-droppin' like this that makes me love these boards. Quality post there.

 

[RushHour]

I personally think Martin is the safest pick out of the top RBs this year and also has as high a ceiling as any of them. I would definitely consider him over AP with the #1 pick.

 

[RushHour]

I personally think Martin is the safest pick out of the top RBs this year and also has as high a ceiling as any of them. I would definitely consider him over AP with the #1 pick.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Some solid rationale in this thread. There's really no way you can determine who's gonna end up first. I do think one over looked fact in the favor of Martin is that he's getting TWO probowl guards added to his O line. I also feel removing a players top games is foolish. The reason they are elite players is BECAUSE they can have those elite, high scoring games. They aren't just luck.

 

[Khy]

Some solid rationale in this thread. There's really no way you can determine who's gonna end up first. I do think one over looked fact in the favor of Martin is that he's getting TWO probowl guards added to his O line. I also feel removing a players top games is foolish. The reason they are elite players is BECAUSE they can have those elite, high scoring games. They aren't just luck.

The purpose of removing the top two games isn't to remove their best games. It's to show the lack of consistency in certain players like Martin who go from #2 in PPG to #6 in PPG when you remove the Top 6 RBs top 2 games. There for showing that he was far less consistent last year than a lot of people think. Martin had 9 games under 15 ppr points. Compared to Peterson's 4, Foster's 2, and Rice's 5. That gap in 4-7 games where he had under 15 points is a big deal and more cause of concern for me than the upside of his random 50 point game. As those weeks I can't 'count' on his 20 points like I can from Rice or Peterson. For over half the season there was a chance his game was more or less a complete dud. That far outweighs the upside of his big games because it hurts your team those weeks. People lost a lot more games with Martin than they won and nobody realizes it. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

RB1: Adrian Peterson (329.40): 20.58ppg, when taking away his two monster games (Weeks 9 & 17) and then redoing his average we come to 18.85ppg. So almost less than a 2 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 329.40 thru 16 games to 264.00 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 20% of his overall points throughout 2012.

I feel like you are presenting a statistically biased argument to support your forecast. If you're going to take ADP's two highest games and use that PPG average as a more realistic projection, why mention his 14 game total (264) to compare with his actual 16 game point total (329.4)? A more fair argument is to use his watered down PPG over a 16 game season which gives him 296, just 33 points less than actual.

Another misleading implication is that ADP's top 2 games were 20% of his total. 65/329 is in fact 20%, but 2 of 16 games is 13% of his total games. Scoring 20% of your points in 13% of your games shouldn't be considered a statistical rarity in the NFL. I'd love to see the analysis. You have to assume that Peterson will have a few monster games that are minimal outliers to his average game. That probably won't change this year.

Edited to remove unnecessary quotes.

 

[Instinctive]

RB1: Adrian Peterson (329.40): 20.58ppg, when taking away his two monster games (Weeks 9 & 17) and then redoing his average we come to 18.85ppg. So almost less than a 2 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 329.40 thru 16 games to 264.00 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 20% of his overall points throughout 2012.

I feel like you are presenting a statistically biased argument to support your forecast. If you're going to take ADP's two highest games and use that PPG average as a more realistic projection, why mention his 14 game total (264) to compare with his actual 16 game point total (329.4)? A more fair argument is to use his watered down PPG over a 16 game season which gives him 296, just 33 points less than actual.

Another misleading implication is that ADP's top 2 games were 20% of his total. 65/329 is in fact 20%, but 2 of 16 games is 13% of his total games. Scoring 20% of your points in 13% of your games shouldn't be considered a statistical rarity in the NFL. I'd love to see the analysis. You have to assume that Peterson will have a few monster games that are minimal outliers to his average game. That probably won't change this year.

Edited to remove unnecessary quotes.

I don't think you get what that full post was about. Peterson's change in production without his top 2 is fairly normal - Doug Martin's was the outlier. That was kinda the point.

 

[Khy]

RB1: Adrian Peterson (329.40): 20.58ppg, when taking away his two monster games (Weeks 9 & 17) and then redoing his average we come to 18.85ppg. So almost less than a 2 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 329.40 thru 16 games to 264.00 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 20% of his overall points throughout 2012.

I feel like you are presenting a statistically biased argument to support your forecast. If you're going to take ADP's two highest games and use that PPG average as a more realistic projection, why mention his 14 game total (264) to compare with his actual 16 game point total (329.4)? A more fair argument is to use his watered down PPG over a 16 game season which gives him 296, just 33 points less than actual.

Another misleading implication is that ADP's top 2 games were 20% of his total. 65/329 is in fact 20%, but 2 of 16 games is 13% of his total games. Scoring 20% of your points in 13% of your games shouldn't be considered a statistical rarity in the NFL. I'd love to see the analysis. You have to assume that Peterson will have a few monster games that are minimal outliers to his average game. That probably won't change this year.

Edited to remove unnecessary quotes.

I don't think you get what that full post was about. Peterson's change in production without his top 2 is fairly normal - Doug Martin's was the outlier. That was kinda the point.

Like Instinctive said, the thing I'm trying to point out is that AP, Morris, Lynch, Rice, Foster all had pretty average standard deviations when you remove their top 2 games. Where as when removing Martin's top 2 games you remove 1/3 of his overall scoring from the year. Which is a HUGE outlier and goes towards my point that he was more or less the least consistent Top 10 RB last year even though he finished #2 overall.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

RB1: Adrian Peterson (329.40): 20.58ppg, when taking away his two monster games (Weeks 9 & 17) and then redoing his average we come to 18.85ppg. So almost less than a 2 point drop in average. His overall points also drop from 329.40 thru 16 games to 264.00 thru 14 games. His top 2 games of the season were about 20% of his overall points throughout 2012.

I feel like you are presenting a statistically biased argument to support your forecast. If you're going to take ADP's two highest games and use that PPG average as a more realistic projection, why mention his 14 game total (264) to compare with his actual 16 game point total (329.4)? A more fair argument is to use his watered down PPG over a 16 game season which gives him 296, just 33 points less than actual.

Another misleading implication is that ADP's top 2 games were 20% of his total. 65/329 is in fact 20%, but 2 of 16 games is 13% of his total games. Scoring 20% of your points in 13% of your games shouldn't be considered a statistical rarity in the NFL. I'd love to see the analysis. You have to assume that Peterson will have a few monster games that are minimal outliers to his average game. That probably won't change this year.

Edited to remove unnecessary quotes.

I don't think you get what that full post was about. Peterson's change in production without his top 2 is fairly normal - Doug Martin's was the outlier. That was kinda the point.

Like Instinctive said, the thing I'm trying to point out is that AP, Morris, Lynch, Rice, Foster all had pretty average standard deviations when you remove their top 2 games. Where as when removing Martin's top 2 games you remove 1/3 of his overall scoring from the year. Which is a HUGE outlier and goes towards my point that he was more or less the least consistent Top 10 RB last year even though he finished #2 overall.

Yep, my bad. I only read ADP's writeup and responded.