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Drafting Perspective (1 Viewer)

M

MCFootball123

Footballguy
Got a new guy in one of my home leagues this year and we were having a conversation last night post draft that I found very interesting. He made several what I would call "reaches" relative to "ADP". However, after 16 rounds in my opinion he has one of the top 3 teams. Very intelligent guy that knew a ton about every player, situation, etc. So I am picking his brain after the draft and I mention a couple of the picks and he responded with "I draft based on what I think ADP is going to be for 2024, not 2023 - people spend way too much time on historical and last year rather than projecting who the 1st rd picks are going to be for next year".

I've heard similar approaches, but I really liked his perspective - also very interested to follow his team this year.

Essentially, a guy you don't think is going to have a good year based on all your reasons falls 3 rounds past "ADP" - if you don't think he's doing much this year it still makes him a bad pick regardless. Why not take the guy with upside that has a very real path to being picked 4 rounds earlier NEXT year.

Curious where you guys fall with this...
 
MCFootball123 said:
Got a new guy in one of my home leagues this year and we were having a conversation last night post draft that I found very interesting. He made several what I would call "reaches" relative to "ADP". However, after 16 rounds in my opinion he has one of the top 3 teams. Very intelligent guy that knew a ton about every player, situation, etc. So I am picking his brain after the draft and I mention a couple of the picks and he responded with "I draft based on what I think ADP is going to be for 2024, not 2023 - people spend way too much time on historical and last year rather than projecting who the 1st rd picks are going to be for next year".

I've heard similar approaches, but I really liked his perspective - also very interested to follow his team this year.

Essentially, a guy you don't think is going to have a good year based on all your reasons falls 3 rounds past "ADP" - if you don't think he's doing much this year it still makes him a bad pick regardless. Why not take the guy with upside that has a very real path to being picked 4 rounds earlier NEXT year.

Curious where you guys fall with this...
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Never thought about it that way precisely, but I've had similar thoughts regarding the infamous RB Dead Zone. Every year guys get taken in the 3rd-6th that no one is particularly excited about, but we feel like we have to take them because of the "opportunity". Last year Fournette, Zeke and Chase Edmonds(!) all went in that range. Even halfway through the season, that seemed absurd.

This year, I look at guys like Miles Sanders, Connor, Mixon and Akers, who all seem like relatively safe-if-unexciting picks, and wonder if we'll look back next year and wonder what we were all thinking. (And for the record, while I'm largely avoiding the first two, I'm not against grabbing either of the latter two as my RB2. But I can very easily see the path where it goes wrong.)
 
How many beers were consumed prior to this conversation taking place? Isn't current ADP and future ADP aligned to some extent? I'm not quite sure how this works.

Drafting for 2024 means overvaluing rookies and taking late round guys too early. I love a good sleeper but that is what the late rounds are for. I prefer tier based drafting - all positions have tiers, which should allow you to breakdown your draft into chunks and runs, because you don't want to be on the tail end of a run and stuck taking the next guy "too early". When I look at the tiers, I have guys I believe are overvalued or undervalued and I move them up or down my draft board accordingly.

It's more about analyzing history, risk and age than it is about looking to 2024.
MCFootball123 said:
Essentially, a guy you don't think is going to have a good year based on all your reasons falls 3 rounds past "ADP" - if you don't think he's doing much this year it still makes him a bad pick regardless. Why not take the guy with upside that has a very real path to being picked 4 rounds earlier NEXT year.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

That is risk/reward but I can argue if a player falls 3 rounds beyond his ADP and you don't draft him and instead draft someone at their current ADP or reach for a young prospect because you think he might have a great year... that is poor judgement in my opinion. There are guys that get paid millions of dollars to assess the ADP of the current players and yes, I do follow my instincts within my tiers but I trust those tiers to be mostly accurate (obviously there are always outliers), but the biggest fantasy winner is predicting those guys within those tiers that have a higher ceiling and pouncing on them before anyone else does. So, maybe I go WR, WR, RB, RB, RB and I am making a decision between a TE group (Hock, Waller, Kittle, Goedert) or I can grab a guy like Rachaad White... I might forego the TE and take White because I think his ceiling is higher and I might still be able to get one of those 4 TE's or value Kyle Pitts within that same tier. I am not saying any of these rankings are accurate but that is the way valuing the draft in bunches works.

Rounds 10 and beyond are for drafting for 2024 (2023 Sleepers)... but if you construct your entire draft that way, you're probably going to lose.
 
I kind of get it, kind of don't. Yes, you skate to where the puck is going to be. But doesn't the ADP (at least somewhat) account for that? The 2023 ADP is not just the 2022 fantasy points rankings copy/pasted (uhh maybe sometimes too close to it, though). Things change and people try to account for it. I guess my question would be what information exactly is he going on, to determine how things are going to shake out, that other people aren't?
 
Honestly, I think what he is doing is simply drafting for upside. You can set teh dominator to do that for you as well.

FWIW did a draft last night and one of the teams ended up with Nuk, OBJ, Dalvin Cook, Godwin, Kamara, and Sutton. This seems like the opposite of drafting for upside and that is why I hated his draft so much.

You want to draft High ceiling, high floor guys when faced with one or the other. IMHO
 
Gatorman said:
Honestly, I think what he is doing is simply drafting for upside. You can set teh dominator to do that for you as well.

FWIW did a draft last night and one of the teams ended up with Nuk, OBJ, Dalvin Cook, Godwin, Kamara, and Sutton. This seems like the opposite of drafting for upside and that is why I hated his draft so much.

You want to draft High ceiling, high floor guys when faced with one or the other. IMHO
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LOL I can relate. I drafted Drake London in the 4th in large part because I started off my draft with Saquon, Adams and AJones and felt like I needed to get some youthful upside on my roster
 
Gatorman said:
Honestly, I think what he is doing is simply drafting for upside. You can set teh dominator to do that for you as well.
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That’s how i read it.

“I draft for 2024 ADP” is kind of a schtick. If one of my league-mates said that to me in a serious tone I’d probably bust out laughing.

Plus it’s a little silly. Like I wouldn’t draft Aaron Jones or Davante Adams in a startup dynasty, but I sure wouldn’t pass on them in redraft because I think their future ADP will be lower. Of course it will - they’ll be another year older.
 
-OZ- said:
Right. Just seems like a fancy way of saying you draft players you think will do well, without worrying much about ADP.
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plus we don’t know what “reach” is in this context.

If sitting at 1.01, I could see reaching by 20 spots to get your guy if you don’t think he’ll make it back.
 
I like the thought process and way of viewing the draft. Nothing wrong with it. It seems to really be saying "avoid players who are boosted due to a good situation and aggressively pursue talented players, especially young ones." That's a good strategy IMO. It might cause you to miss out on a nice season from a veteran but it's likely an approach that will work.
 
TVT 0 N S T A said:
How many beers were consumed prior to this conversation taking place?
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Not so much beer, but admittedly few bottles of tequila were definitely consumed between us.

I just thought it was an interesting perspective that's all. I would imagine many teams drafted in this way would start very slow, but may pay off when it really matters as long as you can make it to the playoffs. Most upside situations take several weeks to develop from my experience.
 
Well the key is always to draft the best players according to your scoring format.

As a player who has always had more of a dynasty focus, the idea of drafting for what you think the players ADP will look like in the following year because of their performance this year makes a lot of sense to me and I think I have been doing something like that for a pretty long time.

Best example that comes to mind was when I participated in a dynasy mock draft that a site was using these mocks to create a form of ADP.

I drafted Jay Ajayi much higher than he was going by any ADP out there at the time because I believed in him and I thought he would eventually become a much higher ranked player than he was at the time.

I was mocked for this and I was not invited back to participate in these dynasty mocks again after this. My picks were too far from the consensus.

Which made me think about how worthless such ADP is if it is only acceptable to draft within its current pattern of group think. What is the point of that? Might as well have a robot keep drafting within those parameters then if you are not willing to have some conviction about your picks.

Also Jay Ajayi did have a good season that year and his ADP rose to a point much closer to where I drafted him after that season.

Dont get me wrong I understand shopping for value and trying to aquire assets at the lowest price point you can get them, even when you expect that asset to greatly outperform that price point.

I also believe in tiering players and using that as a way to make decisions on who to pick first within a tier if you see more players at a position within that tier possibly making it to your next pick compared to another position in the same tier.

I think drafting players based on what you think their ADP will be the following season makes more sense in a dynasty format than redraft because you get to keep those players and you can trade them later on if they do reach that higher price point.

Still though the best way to maximize profit is by taking them at the lowest price point you can and then selling them when/if they reach the higher price you anticipate.

For the mock draft used to create ADP I thought it was completely appropriate to just draft based on my convictions without consideration of getting bargains though. The rest of these mock drafters disagreed.
 
Sounds like you have a quality new owner in the league. I always appreciate people who draft using some oftheir own opinions and analysis, or with info that is outside what you can get off on a website, or god forbid - a magazine. You can learn things from those league mates - especially by following their in season pick ups and drops.
 
Biabreakable said:
Which made me think about how worthless such ADP is if it is only acceptable to draft within its current pattern of group think. What is the point of that? Might as well have a robot keep drafting within those parameters then if you are not willing to have some conviction about your picks.
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I somewhat agree with this, and in some ways I don't. The current FBG writer who did the "Draft ADP Fallers" article made a lot of sense as well. Groupthink has its benefits in that if consensus is higher on a guy than he is going in a particular draft, there is opportunity there. I'd liken this to "Playing by the book" in Blackjack.

I also will look at FBG rankings and see where I completely disagree and to me that is where I "reach"
 
Gatorman said:
Biabreakable said:
Which made me think about how worthless such ADP is if it is only acceptable to draft within its current pattern of group think. What is the point of that? Might as well have a robot keep drafting within those parameters then if you are not willing to have some conviction about your picks.
Click to expand...
I somewhat agree with this, and in some ways I don't. The current FBG writer who did the "Draft ADP Fallers" article made a lot of sense as well. Groupthink has its benefits in that if consensus is higher on a guy than he is going in a particular draft, there is opportunity there. I'd liken this to "Playing by the book" in Blackjack.

I also will look at FBG rankings and see where I completely disagree and to me that is where I "reach"
Click to expand...
Yeah as I tried to explain in my post I do understand both perspectives. Or maybe there are actually more than two perspectives here and its not binary.

I will use any and all tools I have available to me to make a decision.

In the example I gave the purpose of the mock draft was to create ADP not follow it in my opinion. So that is what I did figuring that the average of all drafters would smooth this out.

Its not the only consideration I would use in a real draft. There are many other things that go into that, as I tried to explain in the previous post.

So I can also understand why I was not invited back for more of these mock drafts.

At the same time for this purpose of creating ADP it seemed most aporopriate to me to draft the way that I did.
 
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MCFootball123 said:
Got a new guy in one of my home leagues this year and we were having a conversation last night post draft that I found very interesting. He made several what I would call "reaches" relative to "ADP". However, after 16 rounds in my opinion he has one of the top 3 teams. Very intelligent guy that knew a ton about every player, situation, etc. So I am picking his brain after the draft and I mention a couple of the picks and he responded with "I draft based on what I think ADP is going to be for 2024, not 2023 - people spend way too much time on historical and last year rather than projecting who the 1st rd picks are going to be for next year".

I've heard similar approaches, but I really liked his perspective - also very interested to follow his team this year.

Essentially, a guy you don't think is going to have a good year based on all your reasons falls 3 rounds past "ADP" - if you don't think he's doing much this year it still makes him a bad pick regardless. Why not take the guy with upside that has a very real path to being picked 4 rounds earlier NEXT year.

Curious where you guys fall with this...
Click to expand...
I literally just did this this year, took Dotson in the 5th, I always loved him in college and think he will smash, also took flowers in the 7th, which was probably a reach by conventional standards but my philosophy was "go get your guys"... while respecting and balancing VBD princples

What was his roster out of curiosity? Can you post his round by round picks?
 
TVT 0 N S T A said:
How many beers were consumed prior to this conversation taking place? Isn't current ADP and future ADP aligned to some extent? I'm not quite sure how this works.

Drafting for 2024 means overvaluing rookies and taking late round guys too early. I love a good sleeper but that is what the late rounds are for. I prefer tier based drafting - all positions have tiers, which should allow you to breakdown your draft into chunks and runs, because you don't want to be on the tail end of a run and stuck taking the next guy "too early". When I look at the tiers, I have guys I believe are overvalued or undervalued and I move them up or down my draft board accordingly.

It's more about analyzing history, risk and age than it is about looking to 2024.
MCFootball123 said:
Essentially, a guy you don't think is going to have a good year based on all your reasons falls 3 rounds past "ADP" - if you don't think he's doing much this year it still makes him a bad pick regardless. Why not take the guy with upside that has a very real path to being picked 4 rounds earlier NEXT year.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

That is risk/reward but I can argue if a player falls 3 rounds beyond his ADP and you don't draft him and instead draft someone at their current ADP or reach for a young prospect because you think he might have a great year... that is poor judgement in my opinion. There are guys that get paid millions of dollars to assess the ADP of the current players and yes, I do follow my instincts within my tiers but I trust those tiers to be mostly accurate (obviously there are always outliers), but the biggest fantasy winner is predicting those guys within those tiers that have a higher ceiling and pouncing on them before anyone else does. So, maybe I go WR, WR, RB, RB, RB and I am making a decision between a TE group (Hock, Waller, Kittle, Goedert) or I can grab a guy like Rachaad White... I might forego the TE and take White because I think his ceiling is higher and I might still be able to get one of those 4 TE's or value Kyle Pitts within that same tier. I am not saying any of these rankings are accurate but that is the way valuing the draft in bunches works.

Rounds 10 and beyond are for drafting for 2024 (2023 Sleepers)... but if you construct your entire draft that way, you're probably going to lose.
Click to expand...
AJ Dillon is not going to be a top 10 RB next year by any chance or margin.

He may outscore Jaylen Warren, and Jaylen Warren may not be, but I'm drafting guys who I want to be first or second rounders next year, so I take warren over him every time.
 
ADP is a gauge for when you expect others to begin kicking tires. I prefer to be early on most of my main "must have" guys and sleep well the night before draft. Sounds like your friend is picking upside, which is always great as long as there's some balance in there for high floor.
 
I call that David Dodds method, only draft players who have a chance of getting drafted l a few rounds higher next season. One of the best pieces of advice that I have ever gotten when it comes to FF.

Gosh, I miss reading his stuff on here.
 
Gatorman said:
Honestly, I think what he is doing is simply drafting for upside. You can set teh dominator to do that for you as well.

FWIW did a draft last night and one of the teams ended up with Nuk, OBJ, Dalvin Cook, Godwin, Kamara, and Sutton. This seems like the opposite of drafting for upside and that is why I hated his draft so much.

You want to draft High ceiling, high floor guys when faced with one or the other. IMHO
Click to expand...

Absolutely. I can't imagine anyone disagreeing with drafting younger players on the upswing.
 
I don’t get caught up too much in ADP, but it’s good to know as most of my league swears by it. The main reason I don’t use it is we draft right before the season, usually in the last day or two. draft positions from a month ago is useless to me, seeing how drafts shake out after the last cuts is more useful.
 
A college buddy had his draft today and texted me sentiments similar to the OP's leaguemate.

"The way to win is young guys with upside. No difference to me finishing 3rd or 12th. I take the guys I want and damn the round."

His roster includes Etienne, Bigsby, Waddle, Dotson, Kirk and LaPorta.
 
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