Drafters married to ADP (1 Viewer)

[ratbast]

it’s futile to follow adp in my friend leagues. Established leagues, both over 25 years old but half of each League would look at me funny if I asked them what it means. Lol

 

[candian fantasy guy]

The Best Draft Strategy for 2023 (And Every Other Year)

Lots of draft strategies claim to be the best. This one can back it up.

www.footballguys.com

 

[pinkstapler]

The Best Draft Strategy for 2023 (And Every Other Year) by Adam Harstad

Are you tired of all the suspense and ready to read the three words that will turn you into a winning lifetime fantasy football player? Alright, here they are:
Draft ADP Fallers

This was the exact article I was going to cite. I get it. It's not as "fun". And Harstad talked about this on a few podcasts and said not only would he get made fun of for employing this strat, but that some fellow league members (most well known and reputable "experts") would actually get mad at it. Why? Because he'd beat them using it. We all like to think we are the smartest ones in the room, but ADP is what it is for a reason. We might be smarter than some, if not most, of the guys in our individual league. But thinking you're going to be smarter than the global consensus ranks at a significantly high rate is likely Dunning Kruger effect taking place.

 

[zamboni]

We all like to think we are the smartest ones in the room, but ADP is what it is for a reason. We might be smarter than some, if not most, of the guys in our individual league. But thinking you're going to be smarter than the global consensus ranks at a significantly high rate is likely Dunning Kruger effect taking place.

Excellent point - ADP is computed by tons of educated analysts that do a lot more scouting/legwork than most of us have time to do. They often don't get it right, but there is some thought/process that goes into what we see as the ADP.

 

[barackdhouse]

I find the most success each year when I get the players I actually want, not the ones that others don't, but supposedly should.

yes sir this is the essence of it

 

[barackdhouse]

The Best Draft Strategy for 2023 (And Every Other Year) by Adam Harstad

Are you tired of all the suspense and ready to read the three words that will turn you into a winning lifetime fantasy football player? Alright, here they are:
Draft ADP Fallers

But thinking you're going to be smarter than the global consensus ranks at a significantly high rate is likely Dunning Kruger effect taking place.

I have receipts though.

 

[pinkstapler]

The Best Draft Strategy for 2023 (And Every Other Year) by Adam Harstad

Are you tired of all the suspense and ready to read the three words that will turn you into a winning lifetime fantasy football player? Alright, here they are:
Draft ADP Fallers

But thinking you're going to be smarter than the global consensus ranks at a significantly high rate is likely Dunning Kruger effect taking place.

I have receipts though.

Lol I have too much fun drafting away from ADP too. I'd rather lose with "my" players, than lose watching someone else win with them. And occasionally it does work out and make me look smart. Only occasionally though

 

[pinkstapler]

We all like to think we are the smartest ones in the room, but ADP is what it is for a reason. We might be smarter than some, if not most, of the guys in our individual league. But thinking you're going to be smarter than the global consensus ranks at a significantly high rate is likely Dunning Kruger effect taking place.

Excellent point - ADP is computed by tons of educated analysts that do a lot more scouting/legwork than most of us have time to do. They often don't get it right, but there is some thought/process that goes into what we see as the ADP.

Yup. And it also depends somewhat on where you get ADP. One of the reasons I like Sleeper is the ADP in their draft client usually diverges quite a bit from more mainstream popular ADP sites (and IMO not in a good way) so it does create some openings to take advantage.

Probably a good question for the thread: what is your go to for ADP? Especially redraft ADP, as some of the largest most popular ADP sites are now primarily dynasty focused?

 

[Gottabesweet]

I loaded in the new FBG DD with my league settings and pretty much FBG's ranks mirrored ADP. Was hoping there would be a few guys FBG ranks a round or two higher or lower than the consensus.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

ADP is computed by tons of educated analysts that do a lot more scouting/legwork than most of us have time to do. They often don't get it right, but there is some thought/process that goes into what we see as the ADP.

It reminds me a lot of Vegas point spreads. Everyone seems to think they are easy to be beat but very few do.

 

[Grid71]

I loaded in the new FBG DD with my league settings and pretty much FBG's ranks mirrored ADP. Was hoping there would be a few guys FBG ranks a round or two higher or lower than the consensus.

You'll have to look at individual rankings from your favorite FBG prognosticators to get that.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

If Adrian Peterson married Average Draft Position would he be ADP ADP?

ok, i'm leaving.

 

[GrantK]

We use ADP as a guideline to start, it also depends on your league and how many guys stopped at the 7-11 on their way to the draft and grabbed a magazine printed 3 months ago, etc.
Another factor is where are you drafting, we like tracking the teams before and after us and feel out where they will go with their picks based on need, sometimes they'll surprise you and a guy you think would never fall to you is there, a lot of variables in play here.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

As far as I know ADP has only been married once and she does not play fantasy football.

 

[markrc99]

"... So sometimes drafting chalk is just fine if it's the kind that I think could win leagues. Metcalf, Gibbs, Ridley like I mentioned. I think Swift and Gibson should be going 2 rounds earlier at least. ... Ponder this - it also means that ok if I'm willing to reach 2 rounds for player X then maybe I take the tight chalk pick player Y that I think I need now and then only reach 1 round for player X later. It isn't rocket science but the real trick is to try to accurately predict the nature of the ground shifting under the fantasy landscape. ..."

A very interesting thread with a lot of insightful comments. I have an example of that shifting landscape I thought I'd share, but first I'll add that I agree completely on Ridley. However, I happen to believe that Brian Robinson is the 'back in Washington that's undervalued. Loved Gibson when he came out but his utilization, there's something about it that seems to go back to his days at Memphis. A physical specimen to be sure but very raw in every respect. I read & then sure enough, after watching him, he was much more comfortable working in space than running between the tackles.

I suppose Eric Bieniemy is going to solve this problem but the reason Gibson wasn't able to assume the down & distance role is because he stunk in PP & had ball security issues. As oppose to thinking no one had ever thought to utilize Gibson as more of a receiver. Then there's that, the matter of what is being conveyed, is he the down & distance guy? Because just as often it seems they're going to run an experiment with him at WR... I guess I feel more sure of what's written about Robinson. That he's having an even better camp than he did last year. That the RB coach has cited his versatility & that he's expecting more targets out of the backfield.

This past Sunday in my 2nd keeper league there were 16 players listed at a value but none were QBs. I took Josh Allen late 2nd & Mahomes was selected with 1st pick of the 3rd round. Four picks later was a run on QB; Hurts, Jackson, Fields & Burrow all went in the 3rd!! Herbert was the 1st pick of the 4th & with pick 40, off the board came Dak Prescott. Just .5ppr, no special scoring setting or lineup for the QB. For me, it was unexpected & really has me spooked for my draft today. Same settings, but 22 players are listed as keepers, 3 of them QBs (Mahomes, Allen & Watson).

I had this plan, due to having two 7th rd picks, I'd draft two QB1s in the mid rounds. Back in June I'd already traded back in the 4th rd to list Hockenson. In turn I gained an early 5th rd pick. In a separate deal I moved up to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. I'm convinced that if I don't draft a QB with that pick in the 3rd, one of the better prospects isn't going to be there early 5th. Just for reference, Brian Robinson was drafted in the 7th rd & Gibson in the 9th. My league-mate who took Robinson is a really good fantasy player.

 

[barackdhouse]

"... So sometimes drafting chalk is just fine if it's the kind that I think could win leagues. Metcalf, Gibbs, Ridley like I mentioned. I think Swift and Gibson should be going 2 rounds earlier at least. ... Ponder this - it also means that ok if I'm willing to reach 2 rounds for player X then maybe I take the tight chalk pick player Y that I think I need now and then only reach 1 round for player X later. It isn't rocket science but the real trick is to try to accurately predict the nature of the ground shifting under the fantasy landscape. ..."

A very interesting thread with a lot of insightful comments. I have an example of that shifting landscape I thought I'd share, but first I'll add that I agree completely on Ridley. However, I happen to believe that Brian Robinson is the 'back in Washington that's undervalued. Loved Gibson when he came out but his utilization, there's something about it that seems to go back to his days at Memphis. A physical specimen to be sure but very raw in every respect. I read & then sure enough, after watching him, he was much more comfortable working in space than running between the tackles.

I suppose Eric Bieniemy is going to solve this problem but the reason Gibson wasn't able to assume the down & distance role is because he stunk in PP & had ball security issues. As oppose to thinking no one had ever thought to utilize Gibson as more of a receiver. Then there's that, the matter of what is being conveyed, is he the down & distance guy? Because just as often it seems they're going to run an experiment with him at WR... I guess I feel more sure of what's written about Robinson. That he's having an even better camp than he did last year. That the RB coach has cited his versatility & that he's expecting more targets out of the backfield.

This past Sunday in my 2nd keeper league there were 16 players listed at a value but none were QBs. I took Josh Allen late 2nd & Mahomes was selected with 1st pick of the 3rd round. Four picks later was a run on QB; Hurts, Jackson, Fields & Burrow all went in the 3rd!! Herbert was the 1st pick of the 4th & with pick 40, off the board came Dak Prescott. Just .5ppr, no special scoring setting or lineup for the QB. For me, it was unexpected & really has me spooked for my draft today. Same settings, but 22 players are listed as keepers, 3 of them QBs (Mahomes, Allen & Watson).

I had this plan, due to having two 7th rd picks, I'd draft two QB1s in the mid rounds. Back in June I'd already traded back in the 4th rd to list Hockenson. In turn I gained an early 5th rd pick. In a separate deal I moved up to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. I'm convinced that if I don't draft a QB with that pick in the 3rd, one of the better prospects isn't going to be there early 5th. Just for reference, Brian Robinson was drafted in the 7th rd & Gibson in the 9th. My league-mate who took Robinson is a really good fantasy player.

You could totally be right about Gibson/Brian - I just happen to be a believer in his talent and that they're finally going to use him in the receiving role that McKissic was in. Since I only play PPR, I tend to favor those that catch passes. I think Gibson has dealt with some nagging injuries throughout his young career and that he will get more usage if he is healthy. But I think his ADP is tied to previous owners being burned and I think it is an overreaction by the market.

 

[BassNBrew]

Drafted last night in a $350 Fantasy Pro league. Almost every drafter stuck to ADP. I knew almost all of their picks in the 1st 7-8 rounds or so. Don't know what I'm trying to say here, but how is that fun drafting exactly what other sites tell you? not saying I'm a drafting savant(far from it) but I reach for a guy I like sometimes 2 rounds earlier than ADP. Guess I don't understand.
thanks for listening.

ADP is a good guidepost, but it's basically groupthink. To win, you have to stray a bit from ADP and hope you overweight/underweight the right players. In any event, I've always found that you win or lose more in free agency than in the draft itself.

See the article below.

Not following ADP in these large field tournaments will severely decrease your chances of winning the large prizes at the end of the year.

For you example you really like David Njoku and want to stack him with Watson so you reach on both players at the 5/6 turn. Even if they do help you win your league you are going to be severely outgunned by a lot of other teams that have those players because they got them at the 7/8 turn or even 8/9. So now your 7/8 round players are going up against their round 5/6 guys.

In just regular 12 team leagues it doesn't matter since there is only one of each player.

Great posting. Sure if you just play one league then whatever, but for anyone drafting multiple teams, getting players below ADP is a winning formula.

The Best Draft Strategy for 2023 (And Every Other Year) by Adam Harstad

Are you tired of all the suspense and ready to read the three words that will turn you into a winning lifetime fantasy football player? Alright, here they are:
Draft ADP Fallers

Best re-draft article FBG put out this year and it's by a dynasty guy.

 

[Spike]

Where do you get an ADP listing for Superflex redraft? My ‘net surfing skills must have atrophied because I cannot find any such list.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Excellent point - ADP is computed by tons of educated analysts that do a lot more scouting/legwork than most of us have time to do.

Isn’t ADP based on where players are actually being drafted - an “average draft position” - what do analysts have to do with it? They’d be doing rankings.
Maybe I’m confusing something?

 

[rockaction]

Best re-draft article FBG put out this year and it's by a dynasty guy.

I'm biased, but Adam writes quality articles and is a step ahead of a lot of people in the industry. I think he could pretty much play any fantasy football game if you gave him enough data to look at.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Don't know what I'm trying to say here, but how is that fun drafting exactly what other sites tell you?

You were in an average draft. Statistically it has to happen sometimes, or else the "Average" Draft Position list would be called something else (like "Just One Guy's Opinion").
It sounds to me like a group of players who were afraid of making mistakes. Likely happens more when playing with strangers.

 

[zamboni]

Excellent point - ADP is computed by tons of educated analysts that do a lot more scouting/legwork than most of us have time to do.

Isn’t ADP based on where players are actually being drafted - an “average draft position” - what do analysts have to do with it? They’d be doing rankings.
Maybe I’m confusing something?

Seems like most of the drafts this early are done by analysts, at least based on the podcasts I listen to. In any event, I think most drafts fall reasonably close to the consensus rankings.

 

[markrc99]

You could totally be right about Gibson/Brian - I just happen to be a believer in his talent and that they're finally going to use him in the receiving role that McKissic was in. Since I only play PPR, I tend to favor those that catch passes. I think Gibson has dealt with some nagging injuries throughout his young career and that he will get more usage if he is healthy. But I think his ADP is tied to previous owners being burned and I think it is an overreaction by the market.

Supporting your position on Gibson's talent & perhaps usage is that around the trade deadline (last year) Rivera & co. were fielding trade offers for him. So other teams definitely believe in his ability or that which is untapped. Back the other way, it's the exception when a rookie is named the starter during camp over a veteran whose performance, I felt, was pretty good. Yet, that's precisely what occurred about this time last year. Not really sure what to make of Gibson's recent comments about wishing that he'd never switched positions, that he wants a shot at WR, that they've talked about it every year but it's yet to happen.

He also said that at season's-end they told him that his chance was going to come, perhaps it does? His most recent content at rotoballer.com states that hype about an expanded role is nothing new, the team has said something similar every year. It doesn't say this but last August they did say he'd assume the role of #1 kick returner, which did happen. Totally agree, if they find ways to get him the ball in space, he's capable of hitting a lot of home runs.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I typically don't even create or use a ranking/cheat sheet when I draft. I draft off an ADP list.

This does NOT mean I'm a sheep or really even value hunting, it just lets me know when is the time to move on a player or how to play the odds. I always feel better about getting "my guys" then getting good value on someone I don't really like so again I utilize ADP to try and give me a guide of when to move on a player. When I really like a player I'll check his ADP and make a note to move 1-2 rounds above ADP to secure him.

Will use ADP for things such as if I'm torn on two players then it make common sense to take the one that has the lesser chance of making it back to me.

For sure to what the OP says it's stunning in some drafts how close everyone goes to ADP. When I go old fashioned and print the ADP list it's not usually hard finding the names to cross off, it's like most picks I got a pretty idea out of a small handful of players the guy is going to pick. It's rare when I got to go hunting for the name to cross off.

It's a tool but like most tools you have to know how to use it and not fall victim to allowing yourself to be manipulated by group think or a never ending quest for value over your convictions.

I won't argue that drafts would be more enjoyable if we had zero idea on ADP, I would welcome that wildness.

 

[barackdhouse]

You could totally be right about Gibson/Brian - I just happen to be a believer in his talent and that they're finally going to use him in the receiving role that McKissic was in. Since I only play PPR, I tend to favor those that catch passes. I think Gibson has dealt with some nagging injuries throughout his young career and that he will get more usage if he is healthy. But I think his ADP is tied to previous owners being burned and I think it is an overreaction by the market.

Supporting your position on Gibson's talent & perhaps usage is that around the trade deadline (last year) Rivera & co. were fielding trade offers for him. So other teams definitely believe in his ability or that which is untapped. Back the other way, it's the exception when a rookie is named the starter during camp over a veteran whose performance, I felt, was pretty good. Yet, that's precisely what occurred about this time last year. Not really sure what to make of Gibson's recent comments about wishing that he'd never switched positions, that he wants a shot at WR, that they've talked about it every year but it's yet to happen.

He also said that at season's-end they told him that his chance was going to come, perhaps it does? His most recent content at rotoballer.com states that hype about an expanded role is nothing new, the team has said something similar every year. It doesn't say this but last August they did say he'd assume the role of #1 kick returner, which did happen. Totally agree, if they find ways to get him the ball in space, he's capable of hitting a lot of home runs.

Everything I've heard is that he will be the 3rd down and 4 minute back. And I think if he is healthy he *might* be a better runner than Robinson, which as of the moment isn't saying a lot IMO. But there's every reason to believe he can improve on his rookie season where he came back from getting shot in the ****ing leg.

Also, with all the hype that I think has rightfully came with Bienemy's arrival, is the possibility that he doesn't give a rat's tail how Gibson or Robinson or any other WAS RBs were used in the past. And I think Gibson can really eat in this new role. 10-14 carries per game and 3-6 receptions. Something like 10-14 carries and maybe 1 catch for Robinson. In this scenario it would seem BR is the goal line back and AG isn't. But like I said I think he is a better runner than BR and might just earn some of those goal line looks regardless.

Rose colored glassed I suppose. I just think he has played through some nasty injuries that have limited him. And he has still produced.