Being Drafted at His Ceiling....the new saying... (1 Viewer)

[Stinkin Ref]

I am struggling with this new phrase that seems to be sweeping FF and finding it's way into many threads/posts.....I mean I kind of get it ....but it feels like it is being tossed around way to much and sometimes being said when it really doesn't apply....

I don't know....maybe it's just me...

but I'm seeing it being used for guys drafted in like the first round and a half or so.....I mean yeah if you draft Puka at 2.01 as WR 9 after 8 WR's and 4 RB's have gone.....of course you are drafting him "at his ceiling"....but there is a reason his ADP is there or whatever....(just using Puka and these numbers as an example, please don't argue about his actual value etc, thats not the point)....

I mean I think we all get we are supposed to be looking for value.....but I'm just not sure this phrase really means what I think people are using it as....am I supposed to feel bad that I drafted Puka as WR9 at 2.01 cause that is drafting him "at his ceiling"....

I mean really we don't ever get somebody at "their floor" do we....?....is their an example of that...?...to me that would mean a guy really felll in a draft or something and represented value.....

is "drafted at his ceiling" just a new way of saying "reaching"...or "reaching a little for a player"...

and let's say I draft Puka "at his ceiling" at 2.01 as WR9.....and he finishes as WR3...?....did I really draft him "at his ceiling" ......when he outperformed his ceiling....

 

[TheWinz]

I hear you. If you take CMC at 1.1 and he runs for 2K and 30 TD's, you drafted him at his ceiling, but is that a bad thing? What if you are in a league where you are the first to draft a QB, and you take Josh Allen in the 7th round? As the first QB off the board, you drafted him at his ceiling, but was it a bad pick? I don't necessarily get annoyed by the term, but it does get overused. But then again, most FF terms get overused.

 

[Ray_T]

I hear you. If you take CMC at 1.1 and he runs for 2K and 30 TD's, you drafted him at his ceiling, but is that a bad thing? What if you are in a league where you are the first to draft a QB, and you take Josh Allen in the 7th round? As the first QB off the board, you drafted him at his ceiling, but was it a bad pick? I don't necessarily get annoyed by the term, but it does get overused. But then again, most FF terms get overused.

I only use the saying when I dont think the guy performs at the level he did last year. but some use the saying for nearly everything..

I set a statistical range for players I project. if people are drafting him as if hes gonna hit (or exceed) the top of that range then yeah, you are drafting him at his ceiling. Tua is another one. Lit it up last year, but due to concussion issues I consider last years stats his ceiling and some will be drafting him at his ceiling no doubt, but those concussions still exist and he could be one big hit from being out of the league. that risk has not gone away. its there for life. so I adjust for the injury risk as best I can and I feel many will draft him at his ceiling this year. I still love what he brings to the table. but for fantasy purposes hes down my list because that floor is lower than it is for nearly everyone due to that concussion risk.

 

[Soulfly3]

since none of us morons know what a player's actualy ceiling is, it's more than a bit overused.

everyone wants to sound smart, like they have some imaginary advantage over other players... that advntage barely exists, if at all, anymore.. unless you're playing with some real novices who are in it just to be in it.

value. is. dead.

draft the guys you WANT, first off, and the guys who think will score the most as a 1b. end of story. profit and enjoy.

 

[Joe Bryant]

is "drafted at his ceiling" just a new way of saying "reaching"...or "reaching a little for a player"...

Good post and good question. I thnk it's helpful to talk about how we talk about players.

I don't think "draft at his ceiling" is saying reaching. I'd call reaching drafting someone above what their likely ceiling will be.

It's easier to think of it in salary cap maybe and attaching dollars. And thinking of getting a "bargain" or "paying too much". Drafting at his ceiling would mean you paid about the fair price.

Some things are expensive. But worth it. Some are less expensive and worth the price. What you want to avoid is paying too much for things that aren't worth it.

And try to find things worth more than you have to pay.

 

[Joe Bryant]

The other key part of this is talking about "range of outcomes". With a "ceiling" and a "floor" that we can reasonably expect.

Every player has a different range. Some we feel pretty good about saying there's a tight range. We know what we're going to get. Others have a wide range. Those are usually talented physically but have something holding them back.

When I say "draft at his ceiling", I mean he's being drafted around the top of his likely range of outcomes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

is "drafted at his ceiling" just a new way of saying "reaching"...or "reaching a little for a player"...

I see it more as meaning “no room for that player to pay a profit” - which in investment terms isn’t ideal.

That said, I don’t believe it applies to the top of the 1st round.

I see it more for a guy like Josh Jacobs, who people are drafting as if he’s a feature back when he might be in a committee. Or with your Puka example - with a fully healthy Kupp, I could see Puka take a step back this year while someone like AJB who faded down the stretch ends up being a better investment.

So yeah - not so much about reaching, but more that ideally you want to draft players who have room to grow.

Obviously for CMC, Lamb, JJ, Hill, there isn’t a lot of room, but to invest that high of a pick you’re theoretically paying for performance consistency more than upside since those players are arguably at their peak.

Anyway, that’s how I’ve understood it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

When I say "draft at his ceiling", I mean he's being drafted around the top of his likely range of outcomes.

Probably could have saved myself some typing if I’d read your post 1st.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

We do all our drafts outdoors so that there never is a ceiling.

 

[Ilov80s]

I hear you. If you take CMC at 1.1 and he runs for 2K and 30 TD's, you drafted him at his ceiling, but is that a bad thing? What if you are in a league where you are the first to draft a QB, and you take Josh Allen in the 7th round? As the first QB off the board, you drafted him at his ceiling, but was it a bad pick? I don't necessarily get annoyed by the term, but it does get overused. But then again, most FF terms get overused.

I don’t totally agree about Allen. He could have a 35 passing/15 rushing TD season and end being worth way more than an 8th round pick. He could also end up as QB1 but only be fractionally better than like 7 other QBs and maybe have not been worth the pick.

 

[Ack88]

We do all our drafts outdoors so that there never is a ceiling.

The other key part of this is talking about "range of outcomes". With a "ceiling" and a "floor" that we can reasonably expect.

Every player has a different range. Some we feel pretty good about saying there's a tight range. We know what we're going to get. Others have a wide range. Those are usually talented physically but have something holding them back.

When I say "draft at his ceiling", I mean he's being drafted around the top of his likely range of outcomes.

Agreed.
The term is overused.
For players at the top of the draft- this is redundant. We are picking these players precisely because they have either performed at a high level and/or have highly favorable conditions to exceed past performance.

It’s all about context.

One way this term works is for a player like Anthony Richardson. He’s in many top 4-5 lists and has what some would argue as an inflated ADP- he’s being drafted that high because it’s presumed that he stays healthy, grows as a passer, and his rushing prowess is extrapolated over a full season sample.

I don’t love the term, but it can fit in certain situations.

 

[Ilov80s]

Marvin Harrison seems like the prime example this year. He’s often going around the 1/2 turn. How many rookie WRs perform like top 15 players? It’s been very very few. Then what the chances be even outperforms that and is say a top 6 player in fantasy? I have a hard time seeing it.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Marvin Harrison seems like the prime example this year. He’s often going around the 1/2 turn. How many rookie WRs perform like top 15 players? It’s been very very few. Then what the chances be even outperforms that and is say a top 6 player in fantasy? I have a hard time seeing it.

Yes. And that's what makes the allocation of players in a draft fun. And a big difference between salary cap and regular drafts.

In a salary cap league, it only takes one GM to have the player's value at the peak. This is less of a thing in regular drafts.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Another important way to think about it is finding players that outperform the draft capital needed to get them.

Some perform better than their draft capital. Those are positives.

Some perform as they should at their draft spot. Those are neutral.

Some perform worse than their draft spot. Those are negatives.

Obviously, you win when you have the most positives.

That's why highly drafted players are dangerous. If you spend a first-round pick on a player, they have to be great just to be neutral.

 

[BassNBrew]

Marvin Harrison seems like the prime example this year. He’s often going around the 1/2 turn. How many rookie WRs perform like top 15 players? It’s been very very few. Then what the chances be even outperforms that and is say a top 6 player in fantasy? I have a hard time seeing it.

I spawned this thread...was having a conversation with Ref about his 1/2 turn of Gibbs and Nuka. He mentioned that in future drafts he might take Harrison at that spot. I think Harrison in the first is his absolute best outcome. To take him in the first you would have to pass on one of Brown/Brown/Gibbs/Taylor/Barkley. I can make a case for all of these guys finishing in the top 3, I can't do that with a rookie WR with Murray at the helm.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Marvin Harrison seems like the prime example this year. He’s often going around the 1/2 turn. How many rookie WRs perform like top 15 players? It’s been very very few. Then what the chances be even outperforms that and is say a top 6 player in fantasy? I have a hard time seeing it.

I spawned this thread...was having a conversation with Ref about his 1/2 turn of Gibbs and Nuka. He mentioned that in future drafts he might take Harrison at that spot. I think Harrison in the first is his absolute best outcome. To take him in the first you would have to pass on one of Brown/Brown/Gibbs/Taylor/Barkley. I can make a case for all of these guys finishing in the top 3, I can't do that with a rookie WR with Murray at the helm.

Yes. In a related discussion with taking a guy at his ceiling is the fascination we humans have with the shiny new thing.

It's hugely rewarding to go out on a limb and be right on a high profile player.

 

[zamboni]

Agree that it tends to be a trendy, overused term because many people have different ceilings. In my own context, it would be taking a guy first/at the top of a particular tier when I’m evaluating guys across positions.

 

[barackdhouse]

No. That phrase has been around for at least a decade or more probably longer. Nothing new whatsoever.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Agree that it tends to be a trendy, overused term because many people have different ceilings. In my own context, it would be taking a guy first/at the top of a particular tier when I’m evaluating guys across positions.

Yes. And for sure, it's been around a while but like the OP, I'm seeing it more now. All good. That's not really the point.

I do find it useful as it helps put some context on the range of outcomes.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I guess I look at every pick as taking a guy "at his ceiling"....when I pull the trigger I am expecting to get production that is worthy of that draft slot...at a minimum....if not more.....I'm never taking a guy thinking he won't give me my ROI.....

if I take Harrison as WR9 .....I am expecting him to finish in top 9 at WR.....anything above that is gravy.....how is that taking him at his ceiling...? ....is that because "the consensus" (whoever that is) says he should be taken as WR12 or something....I mean if it is based on a "range of outcomes"....maybe then we should be asking the experts (looking at you @Joe Bryant) now to give us a range of outcomes for each player in addition to their ranking.....meaning if Joe ranks Harrison as WR13....maybe tell me that means WR6 to WR19 or something....(and that could be different for each player based on confidence or something).....sorry just spit ballin...

 

[Joe Bryant]

I guess I look at every pick as taking a guy "at his ceiling"....when I pull the trigger I am expecting to get production that is worthy of that draft slot...at a minimum....if not more.....I'm never taking a guy thinking he won't give me my ROI.....

if I take Harrison as WR9 .....I am expecting him to finish in top 9 at WR.....anything above that is gravy.....how is that taking him at his ceiling...? ....is that because "the consensus" (whoever that is) says he should be taken as WR12 or something....I mean if it is based on a "range of outcomes"....maybe then we should be asking the experts (looking at you @Joe Bryant) now to give us a range of outcomes for each player in addition to their ranking.....meaning if Joe ranks Harrison as WR13....maybe tell me that means WR6 to WR19 or something....(and that could be different for each player based on confidence or something).....sorry just spit ballin...

Hopefully you're getting tons of guys well below their ceiling.

If you think a RB is RB10 and you can draft him at RB15, that's a win.

 

[Ilov80s]

I guess I look at every pick as taking a guy "at his ceiling"....when I pull the trigger I am expecting to get production that is worthy of that draft slot...at a minimum....if not more.....I'm never taking a guy thinking he won't give me my ROI.....

if I take Harrison as WR9 .....I am expecting him to finish in top 9 at WR.....anything above that is gravy.....how is that taking him at his ceiling...? ....is that because "the consensus" (whoever that is) says he should be taken as WR12 or something....I mean if it is based on a "range of outcomes"....maybe then we should be asking the experts (looking at you @Joe Bryant) now to give us a range of outcomes for each player in addition to their ranking.....meaning if Joe ranks Harrison as WR13....maybe tell me that means WR6 to WR19 or something....(and that could be different for each player based on confidence or something).....sorry just spit ballin...

One way to look at it is the 2 WRs usually going right before Harrison are AJ and Puka. Both have a track record of production and an offense where I think it’s within the range of outcomes for them to finish as the overall WR1. I absolutely do not think it’s possible for Harrison. As a rookie, that’s just too much to expect. So you can maybe get AJB as WR7 but his ceiling is WR1. Harrison would have to have the greatest rookie WR season since Randy Moss to deliver that. It’s just so much more unlikely.

 

[Joe Bryant]

.maybe then we should be asking the experts (looking at you @Joe Bryant) now to give us a range of outcomes for each player in addition to their ranking.....meaning if Joe ranks Harrison as WR13....maybe tell me that means WR6 to WR19 or something....(and that could be different for each player based on confidence or something).....sorry just spit ballin...

That's exactly what we do with some of the magic behind the scenes in the Draft Dominator and our rankings. We factor in upside and downside. Some players have more or less than others and that's useful for different spots in the draft. Sometimes early, you want the guy that you feel confident will be what you think. Later in the draft, you probably are going to swing for the fence a bit more and take the guy with the wider range of outcomes.

All those are things that factor into our draft tools and rankings.

 

[Gally]

I mean I think we all get we are supposed to be looking for value.

I don't like the use of "value" when it comes to a draft. Reason being nobody knows what players will do. The "value" everyone talks about is based solely on some unknown tied to the order guys get picked (ADP).

Value is only realized in hindsight. At draft time it is meaningless because nobody knows how players will perform

As soulfly pointed out....draft the guys you want. You will have a lot more fun that way.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

If the saying 'You can't win your draft in Round 1, but you can lose it' is true...then it would seem that Round 1/2 is not as much about ceilings as it is floors. It's not a 100/0 or 0/100 proposition, but MHJ ceiling feels like it comes with significant floor risk at WR10. That said, if you believe in the ceiling, and there will be those given the hype here...then you'll need to take on more risk to acquire him

 

[Joe Bryant]

I don't like the use of "value" when it comes to a draft. Reason being nobody knows what players will do. The "value" everyone talks about is based solely on some unknown tied to the order guys get picked (ADP).

Agreed, nobody knows for certain what they'll do. And hindsight is 20/20.

But before a draft, you have to have some order in which you rank the players.

What do you use to order the list?

 

[ffmail4me]

No risk it no biscuit. You take the guys you think are going to have big seasons. even if you have to reach...again, no risk it no biscuit.

 

[Gally]

I don't like the use of "value" when it comes to a draft. Reason being nobody knows what players will do. The "value" everyone talks about is based solely on some unknown tied to the order guys get picked (ADP).

Agreed, nobody knows for certain what they'll do. And hindsight is 20/20.

But before a draft, you have to have some order in which you rank the players.

What do you use to order the list?

My issue isn't with ADP or any type of personal order preference. My issue is with people using this "value" term when it is empty.

When I create my draft board I come up with an order and draft accordingly. I use ADP as a general guide of when players may be drafted. If my list has a player much, much higher on a list than typical ADP my valuation is different than others. But it doesn't mean I lost "value" or gained "value" because of where I actually drafted them vs some random ADP.

 

[FairWarning]

Marvin Harrison seems like the prime example this year. He’s often going around the 1/2 turn. How many rookie WRs perform like top 15 players? It’s been very very few. Then what the chances be even outperforms that and is say a top 6 player in fantasy? I have a hard time seeing it.

I spawned this thread...was having a conversation with Ref about his 1/2 turn of Gibbs and Nuka. He mentioned that in future drafts he might take Harrison at that spot. I think Harrison in the first is his absolute best outcome. To take him in the first you would have to pass on one of Brown/Brown/Gibbs/Taylor/Barkley. I can make a case for all of these guys finishing in the top 3, I can't do that with a rookie WR with Murray at the helm.

Yes. In a related discussion with taking a guy at his ceiling is the fascination we humans have with the shiny new thing.

It's hugely rewarding to go out on a limb and be right on a high profile player.

Very hard to do in the first four rounds.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's why highly drafted players are dangerous. If you spend a first-round pick on a player, they have to be great just to be neutral.

This is exactly what I meant about the 1st round players, especially top ~8-ish

You’re paying the premium for consistency, not necessarily upside. You’re hoping they maintain their ceiling but there isn’t a ton of room for say, CMC to grow. But if he stays healthy & gives you his last 2 season average numbers you’re thrilled with that return.

Whereas if you draft a guy like Dotson, you’re hoping he has a next level to go to & realize a profit on your draft capital. Or even a Mixon in the 2nd, if you expect HOU bellcow usage in the late 2nd, he could deliver late 1st round value.

It’s a tough balance - guys like Saquan seem like the perfect example, where managers are counting on a full healthy season and projecting a high volume role. Right now we don’t actually know what Saquon Barkley will do with the Eagles. To me, he is the ultimate buying at his ceiling player.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's hugely rewarding to go out on a limb and be right on a high profile player.

Not nearly as rewarding as buying that player at a substantial discount before they hit their ceiling. A lot more risk but a lot more reward.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If the saying 'You can't win your draft in Round 1, but you can lose it' is true...then it would seem that Round 1/2 is not as much about ceilings as it is floors. It's not a 100/0 or 0/100 proposition, but MHJ ceiling feels like it comes with significant floor risk at WR10. That said, if you believe in the ceiling, and there will be those given the hype here...then you'll need to take on more risk to acquire him

Slightly off-topic, but relevant to this post… To me, MH2 is a guy I would love to have fall to me at 2.12/3.01 if I’m picking 1.01.

Enough upside to be exciting but a late enough pic that I can live with his floor if he’s merely a top 20 wide receiver. At that point, I have CMC plus a likely very reliable high floor WR1, so my build can absorb the risk.

But then, at that point I’m not exactly drafting at his ceiling per the theme of this topic.

 

[Ilov80s]

Also part of the issue with snake drafts is that players aren’t linear. The difference between RB2 and RB3 isn’t necessarily the same as the difference between RB3 and RB4.

 

[FarFromHome]

Ive always told my coworkers we are performing the same, but you are at your ceiling and I'm at my floor. We are not the same.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Ive always told my coworkers we are performing the same, but you are at your ceiling and I'm at my floor. We are not the same.

Is this because they work on the floor below you?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ive always told my coworkers we are performing the same, but you are at your ceiling and I'm at my floor. We are not the same.

Is this because they work on the floor below you?

 

[FarFromHome]

Ive always told my coworkers we are performing the same, but you are at your ceiling and I'm at my floor. We are not the same.

Is this because they work on the floor below you?

So. It's still makes sense. Ha ha

 

[cdclopper]

I take this phrase to mean something like, trading Aiyuk for G. Wilson in dynasty would be paying for Wilson's cieling. The only way this trade pays off is if G.W. reached that.

The same would go for josh allen for cj stroud.

 

[jm192]

I appreciate the phrase. I don't think it's derogatory. I don't think it's used on THAT many players. i certainly don't think we draft everyone at their ceiling.

I don't think you can use it on 1st round guys. If you're using your 1st pick on a guy, you're expecting a pretty awesome ceiling. And it's hard to outperform 1st round draft capital.

Someone else mentioned MHJ. And he's the guy I hear it used on the most. He's going as a top 10 WR. I've seen him as high as 8. I really doubt he outperforms that by much.

Anthony Richardson is ranked as a top 5 QB. by many Fantasy Insiders. People say he has QB1 overall upside. We used to draft these unproven mobile QB's in round 10 and be ecstatic when they hit top 12. I appreciate "the rushing upside" but think paying that price is a risky proposition. I think he's more likely to wind up as QB10 than QB1.

James Conner is likely an RB1 on a PPG basis. Sure, he may miss a few games. But he's going as like RB20. I think he's going at his floor rather than his ceiling.

Jakobi Meyers finished as WR25 in PPR leagues. He's going as a WR5 on a lot of sites. Bowers may change the math. But rookie TE's often struggle adapting to the NFL. I would say we're certainly not getting Jakobi at his ceiling.

 

[Ray_T]

Someone else mentioned MHJ. And he's the guy I hear it used on the most. He's going as a top 10 WR. I've seen him as high as 8. I really doubt he outperforms that by much.

no. hes still a rookie. while it does happen from time to time, history has shown that a good percentage of first round WR drafted this early turn out to be disappointing in their rookie year.

not disappointing that they got 600- 700 yards and 4-7 TD. but disappointing in the sense they were drafted like they will get 1100 yards and 8 or 9 TD. and 600-700 yards is actually a pretty good rookie season for most WR. You just dont wanna see it when you drafted that guy in round 1. There is far more risk there than your average first round selection.

 

[Joe Bryant]

It's hugely rewarding to go out on a limb and be right on a high profile player.

Not nearly as rewarding as buying that player at a substantial discount before they hit their ceiling. A lot more risk but a lot more reward.

That's what I'm saying. It's rewarding when you buy them at a discount.

 

[satch]

is "drafted at his ceiling" just a new way of saying "reaching"...or "reaching a little for a player"...

I see it more as meaning “no room for that player to pay a profit” - which in investment terms isn’t ideal.

That said, I don’t believe it applies to the top of the 1st round.

I see it more for a guy like Josh Jacobs, who people are drafting as if he’s a feature back when he might be in a committee. Or with your Puka example - with a fully healthy Kupp, I could see Puka take a step back this year while someone like AJB who faded down the stretch ends up being a better investment.

So yeah - not so much about reaching, but more that ideally you want to draft players who have room to grow.

Obviously for CMC, Lamb, JJ, Hill, there isn’t a lot of room, but to invest that high of a pick you’re theoretically paying for performance consistency more than upside since those players are arguably at their peak.

Anyway, that’s how I’ve understood it.

The bolded underscores the point of the thread. You are saying Jacobs is being drafted at his ceiling based on undefined characteristics and vague assumptions. What defines a “feature back” or “committee?” Is it a specific percentage of carries? If so, what is that percentage and how on Earth do we know Jacobs will fall short of that percentage?

You even acknowledge in your post that he “might be in a committee,” which means you acknowledge he might not. Without knowing for sure what his usage will be, how can you possibly project his ceiling?

According to Fantasy Pros, Jacobs is being drafted 28th overall, the 12th RB off the board. Suggesting that Jacobs “ceiling” is RB12 is ridiculous, considering he was the NFL rushing leader two seasons ago and now finds himself on the best offense of his career.

Half the RBs being drafted ahead of Jacobs have similar questions of their own. I could see Jacobs being a top 5 fantasy RB in 2024. Of course, it might not happen, but it is definitely within a realistic range of outcomes. A top 10 finish is unquestionably possible.

I understand claiming RB12 is Jacobs’ ceiling makes sense to you for whatever reason, but to me it seems completely arbitrary and baseless relative to the RBs drafted around him, who you presumably think are being drafted appropriately.

 

[Ilov80s]

Oddly enough, I think Jacobs is a clear example of a player NOT being drafted at his celing. I am not really into Jacobs but even I can see a world where he's the RB2 this year. He is 26, plays on a potent offense with a traditional QB and relatively light competion. AJ Dillon has proven to be a pretty ineffective player and while I like Lloyd, he's still a 3rd round rookie. Jacobs was the RB1 two years ago. There are only a couple RBs with a genuine chance for 60+ receptions, 2000 total yards and 15+ TDs. Jacobs is one of those guys so getting him at the 2/3 turn IMO isn't at all his ceiling.

 

[pinkstapler]

This is hard to grasp for me. Can someone explain this in air fryer terms?

 

[FarFromHome]

Oddly enough, I think Jacobs is a clear example of a player NOT being drafted at his celing. I am not really into Jacobs but even I can see a world where he's the RB2 this year. He is 26, plays on a potent offense with a traditional QB and relatively light competion. AJ Dillon has proven to be a pretty ineffective player and while I like Lloyd, he's still a 3rd round rookie. Jacobs was the RB1 two years ago. There are only a couple RBs with a genuine chance for 60+ receptions, 2000 total yards and 15+ TDs. Jacobs is one of those guys so getting him at the 2/3 turn IMO isn't at all his ceiling.

Yep. Was heavily targeting him last night, ended up with James Cook. Just feels Jacobs about to go off.

 

[Ilov80s]

Oddly enough, I think Jacobs is a clear example of a player NOT being drafted at his celing. I am not really into Jacobs but even I can see a world where he's the RB2 this year. He is 26, plays on a potent offense with a traditional QB and relatively light competion. AJ Dillon has proven to be a pretty ineffective player and while I like Lloyd, he's still a 3rd round rookie. Jacobs was the RB1 two years ago. There are only a couple RBs with a genuine chance for 60+ receptions, 2000 total yards and 15+ TDs. Jacobs is one of those guys so getting him at the 2/3 turn IMO isn't at all his ceiling.

Yep. Was heavily targeting him last night, ended up with James Cook. Just feels Jacobs about to go off.

Cook is another guy not going at his ceiling. That Bills offense with the number of receptions available, how much more he was featured last year and some better TD luck, Cook has room to perform like a top 10 pick.

 

[jm192]

Amari Cooper: Finished as WR18 in PPG. Was really good with Watson last year. He was 1.3 PPG off of the WR12 last year.

FBG has him at WR23. ADP is WR23-25. Is he going to finish worse than WR25 on a PPG basis? Doubt it.

Could things click with a full season where Watson is healthy and he scores 1.4 more PPG? Yes. And that would put him around WR12.

 

[Ray_T]

Amari Cooper: Finished as WR18 in PPG. Was really good with Watson last year. He was 1.3 PPG off of the WR12 last year.

FBG has him at WR23. ADP is WR23-25. Is he going to finish worse than WR25 on a PPG basis? Doubt it.

Could things click with a full season where Watson is healthy and he scores 1.4 more PPG? Yes. And that would put him around WR12.

know who he was better with? Joe Flacco.
strange isnt it.
got almost 375 yards in the last 2 games of the season. is that normal? I'd suggest not. and he hasnt had one game of production that exceeds 120 yards under Desean Watson. almost makes it hard to decide who is the better QB.

while I jest with you on this, its not as clear cut as one may think. other publications rank cooper around the same and the reason for that is that the situation suggests he has a low floor and high ceiling. and nobody knows what you're gonna get here in this offense. the floor? or the ceiling.

Thats why hes not ranked higher. but I dont think its out of line with what everyone else ranks him or with reality for that matter. a prediction is supposed to be the midpoint of the high and low of the range of what he is likely to produce. sure sometimes you tweak based on situation or injury or something of the like but thats what it is. its an estimate based on stats.

 

[jm192]

Amari Cooper: Finished as WR18 in PPG. Was really good with Watson last year. He was 1.3 PPG off of the WR12 last year.

FBG has him at WR23. ADP is WR23-25. Is he going to finish worse than WR25 on a PPG basis? Doubt it.

Could things click with a full season where Watson is healthy and he scores 1.4 more PPG? Yes. And that would put him around WR12.

know who he was better with? Joe Flacco.
strange isnt it.
got almost 375 yards in the last 2 games of the season. is that normal? I'd suggest not. and he hasnt had one game of production that exceeds 120 yards under Desean Watson. almost makes it hard to decide who is the better QB.

while I jest with you on this, its not as clear cut as one may think. other publications rank cooper around the same and the reason for that is that the situation suggests he has a low floor and high ceiling. and nobody knows what you're gonna get here in this offense. the floor? or the ceiling.

Thats why hes not ranked higher. but I dont think its out of line with what everyone else ranks him or with reality for that matter. a prediction is supposed to be the midpoint of the high and low of the range of what he is likely to produce. sure sometimes you tweak based on situation or injury or something of the like but thats what it is. its an estimate based on stats.

He was better with Flacco. He was still fantastic with Watson.

Watson played 6 games. He barely played v Indianapolis, so I'm not going to count that one.

In the other 5 games, Cooper went for:
28 receptions, 480 yards, 2 TD's.

If you extrapolate those numbers to 17 games: He would have had 95 receptions, 1632 yards, 7 TD's.

Obviously the extrapolation numbers aren't a lock.

I think to your point about "We don't know what we're going to get from the offense." The offense wasn't anything special last year. And Cooper was still very good.

I get what you're saying about the midpoint between the high and the low. I don't think WR23 or WR25 is a "mid point." I think WR25 is almost the absolute floor barring injury. I think WR12 is within the range of outcomes. So he should be closer to WR17 or 18--going by the midpoint theory.

He excelled with 2 different QB's. The offense wasn't lighting the world on fire. I have no reason to think WR23 or WR25 is the middle of his range of outcomes.

 

[ChiefD]

I don't like the word bellcow for running backs.

It's just dumb.