Drafters married to ADP (1 Viewer)

[shadrap]

Drafted last night in a $350 Fantasy Pro league. Almost every drafter stuck to ADP. I knew almost all of their picks in the 1st 7-8 rounds or so. Don't know what I'm trying to say here, but how is that fun drafting exactly what other sites tell you? not saying I'm a drafting savant(far from it) but I reach for a guy I like sometimes 2 rounds earlier than ADP. Guess I don't understand.
thanks for listening.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I sometimes have a short list of guys I like. I'll put them in ADP order so that I'll get the max amount of players on that list

 

[Gruden's Keyboard]

If everyone is strictly following adp, then there's nothing to gain reaching 2 rounds for a player..

 

[zamboni]

Drafted last night in a $350 Fantasy Pro league. Almost every drafter stuck to ADP. I knew almost all of their picks in the 1st 7-8 rounds or so. Don't know what I'm trying to say here, but how is that fun drafting exactly what other sites tell you? not saying I'm a drafting savant(far from it) but I reach for a guy I like sometimes 2 rounds earlier than ADP. Guess I don't understand.
thanks for listening.

ADP is a good guidepost, but it's basically groupthink. To win, you have to stray a bit from ADP and hope you overweight/underweight the right players. In any event, I've always found that you win or lose more in free agency than in the draft itself.

 

[shadrap]

ADP is a good guidepost, but it's basically groupthink. To win, you have to stray a bit from ADP and hope you overweight/underweight the right players. In any event, I've always found that you win or lose more in free agency than in the draft itself.

Yes.

 

[shadrap]

If everyone is strictly following adp, then there's nothing to gain reaching 2 rounds for a player..

yes, unless you are drafting from say the one or two spot & know the guy you want WON'T get back to you. I drafted from the 2 spot so ADP helped me get the players I wanted most of the time. Now in 4 months I will be banging my head that I didn't follow ADP for my picks, but at least they were my picks.

 

[Soulfly3]

I mean... for the most part in the first 7-8 rounds, it's all the players ppl WANT to have on their team...

after that ADP gets mostly tossed cuz you're throwing darts and taking chances.

it makes sense.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Boy that title is like a recipe for divorce

 

[Gold Fox]

Drafted last night in a $350 Fantasy Pro league. Almost every drafter stuck to ADP. I knew almost all of their picks in the 1st 7-8 rounds or so. Don't know what I'm trying to say here, but how is that fun drafting exactly what other sites tell you? not saying I'm a drafting savant(far from it) but I reach for a guy I like sometimes 2 rounds earlier than ADP. Guess I don't understand.
thanks for listening.

This is why I prefer auctions.

 

[BobbyLayne]

playing the ADP game is super useful from either end (2-4 or 9-11)

OK I’ve got Player A higher in my rankings but Player B is higher in ADP

I’ll take B first bc that way there’s a better chance I’ll still land A 2-6 picks later

 

[Grid71]

I think it's fine in typical redraft to go up to a round early. Historically, I do way too much reaching on ADP and still have decent success in standard redraft leagues. Normally play in only a few leagues and want to get my guys. This season bullish on JAX vs ADP and willing to reach a bit to complete a stack. Unfortunately for me, it's great for the other teams because they get more value. If JAX doesn't do significantly better than groupthink ADP projections, then my team is going to struggle.

Large tournaments are a whole different story. This offseason, drafted around 70 best ball teams on underdog already. In those bigger tournaments, it's nearly impossible to win by going to get my guys. Someone else in another draft will have my same JAX stack but at least a round later. Ridley is the perfect example. I've gotten him in round 4 in the same tournament where others are drafting him at the 2/3 turn today. So if Ridley hits, the team who took Ridley round 2 is out gunned by my 2nd vs their 4th round pick. Even though I think Ridley is a solid pick in the Olave Waddle range for redraft, typically fade him in those tournaments now unless he falls.

 

[zamboni]

Boy that title is like a recipe for divorce

The honeymoon period with ADP does wear off pretty quickly.

 

[stlrams]

This is why I do my own projections and our league is auction style…. We can think for ourselves just fine.

 

[barackdhouse]

I'm not married to ADP, it's more like a really hot mistress. I wouldn't marry it if you paid me, but I like to take it for a ride. Sometimes it rides me. But I pay attention to what turns it on, what turns it off, and when I might meet it for a quickie next week or before the 'season' starts - which in this analogy works perfect because my actual anniversary is during week 1. Summer fling basically. Every summer. And ok yes it starts in spring. ADP is sexy as hell and I like to use it. But so does everyone else and well...hmmm not sure where I want to go with that but basically it's not marriage material.

 

[barackdhouse]

I pay attention to ADP like a hawk and I try to leverage whenever/however I can. But I prefer to think of *using* it as a tool and not being a slave to it.

I'm a portfolio owner and draft and manage many, many teams each year and I'm not sure how much that changes things but I'd say the easiest trap to fall into is to go overweight on perceived values. I hit better than average* on my picks and so I actively pursue going overweight or higher weight on certain players that ADP market consensus is stupid about. But that is obviously very dangerous and a diversified group of rosters is critical. I wouldn't be able to exact the strategies I want to without being intimate with ADP.

But I also understand the idea that the ADP on a given site is set from day 1 of the offseason and it influences the rest of draft season. I would *love* to see a redraft where the pick list is *only* alphabetical. We more or less do that when we draft in person at Wild Wings and the like.

 

[Stoneworker]

The more I know about my opponents' drafting tendencies the better is the way I see it.

If they want to telegraph their moves by being completely predictable I'm not going to argue.

 

[need2know]

after the first few rounds, im taking the guys i want whenever i want to take them. screw ADP.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

When I played in a few of those leagues last year I found that most went by ADP, but there were a few exceptions.

The explanation is that if you want a player and you’re on the clock, you’d best take him if ADP indicates he’s getting picked in the next few picks.

But as always, ADP ≠ rankings.

You can have your rankings, and then use ADP to your advantage. In what was my best draft I landed my WR2 after my WR3 because that’s how they went by ADP.

I find most drafters both use the ADP & also reach for players in those formats. It’s rare to see value slip very far.

The skill in those leagues is knowing how you’re going to build your team, and using ADP to your advantage.

At the end of the day though, ADP is what it is - where *most* leagues are drafting those players. Maybe your league was an extreme example. Do you have a link to the league/draft recap?

 

[menobrown]

I typically don't even create or use a ranking/cheat sheet when I draft. I draft off an ADP list.

This does NOT mean I'm a sheep or really even value hunting, it just lets me know when is the time to move on a player or how to play the odds. I always feel better about getting "my guys" then getting good value on someone I don't really like so again I utilize ADP to try and give me a guide of when to move on a player. When I really like a player I'll check his ADP and make a note to move 1-2 rounds above ADP to secure him.

Will use ADP for things such as if I'm torn on two players then it make common sense to take the one that has the lesser chance of making it back to me.

For sure to what the OP says it's stunning in some drafts how close everyone goes to ADP. When I go old fashioned and print the ADP list it's not usually hard finding the names to cross off, it's like most picks I got a pretty idea out of a small handful of players the guy is going to pick. It's rare when I got to go hunting for the name to cross off.

It's a tool but like most tools you have to know how to use it and not fall victim to allowing yourself to be manipulated by group think or a never ending quest for value over your convictions.

I won't argue that drafts would be more enjoyable if we had zero idea on ADP, I would welcome that wildness.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But I also understand the idea that the ADP on a given site is set from day 1 of the offseason and it influences the rest of draft season. I would *love* to see a redraft where the pick list is *only* alphabetical. We more or less do that when we draft in person at Wild Wings and the like.

IIRC, on the FFPC high stakes $350 leagues you can sort ADP from any period.

Which makes me question the OP a little, tbh. Because it would be weird for everyone in a 12 team high stakes league to be using the default ADP. I know I didn’t.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This does mean I'm a sheep

It’s always the typos that make us say the opposite of what we want to say that are the funniest.

 

[menobrown]

This does mean I'm a sheep

It’s always the typos that make us say the opposite of what we want to say that are the funniest.

Edited, thanks.

 

[TripItUp]

You want drafts where everything goes according to ADP if you have your own rankings...allows you to build a strategy around it.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Drafted last night in a $350 Fantasy Pro league. Almost every drafter stuck to ADP. I knew almost all of their picks in the 1st 7-8 rounds or so. Don't know what I'm trying to say here, but how is that fun drafting exactly what other sites tell you? not saying I'm a drafting savant(far from it) but I reach for a guy I like sometimes 2 rounds earlier than ADP. Guess I don't understand.
thanks for listening.

This is why I prefer auctions.

Bingo.

Salary cap/auction really takes the air out of the ADP tires. Sure there will be "estimated" price cheat sheets but every league is very different. With the massive amount of cheat sheets/ADP info available these days, auction adds an additional wrinkle of strategy/enjoyment for me for drafting.

 

[Gally]

Unfortunately for me, it's great for the other teams because they get more value.

I have never really understood/agreed with the concept of getting more value. Nobody really knows the value because it is based on a groupthink ADP ordering and perceived performance. There is no actual value being obtained. It's all projection and not actual value. The "value" you get from ADP information is to see where your projections/rankings differ from groupthink so if there is a guy you feel strongly about you get an indication on where you should "reach" for that player. That is the value you receive.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think it's fine in typical redraft to go up to a round early. Historically, I do way too much reaching on ADP

Last year, after almost every pick I made the resident league "expert" (in fairness he has won the most championships) declared that I reached. I ended up leading the league in scoring for the season and was knocked out of the playoffs in the Final Four.

 

[barackdhouse]

But I also understand the idea that the ADP on a given site is set from day 1 of the offseason and it influences the rest of draft season. I would *love* to see a redraft where the pick list is *only* alphabetical. We more or less do that when we draft in person at Wild Wings and the like.

IIRC, on the FFPC high stakes $350 leagues you can sort ADP from any period.

Which makes me question the OP a little, tbh. Because it would be weird for everyone in a 12 team high stakes league to be using the default ADP. I know I didn’t.

I just keep it sorted by the ADP in the draft window and don't bother to customize anything in there even though you can. But I draft from my own custom spreadsheet (and will print out hard copies of it when I go to a live draft). It is a living digital document that I update in real time as I see fit. I cross names off that sheet as a draft unfolds. It is more or less calibrated to market ADP across several sites that I draft on a lot (mostly Underdog and FFPC which are disparate enough and deep enough in data that I think I have a fairly accurate picture of market consensus).

When I do the $350 FPCs (I did an early morning one today) I look at fantasymojo ADP and look for positive or negative discrepancies away from my own tiers (my system is tiers up and down but also columns left to right going from MY GUYS to MAYBE to IDK to AVOID). This usually produces a fair amount of outliers in terms of players that according to my own 'scouting' are overpriced, as well as players that I think are underpriced and that I am easily willing to reach a round or two or even three for. I also consider my build strategy during all of this (I went extreme zero RB today) and this also produces a list of players that are perhaps accurately priced but who I think could be a league winner type (like Ridley - 3rd round might be about right - in fact he might be worth a 2nd). So sometimes drafting chalk is just fine if it's the kind that I think could win leagues. Metcalf, Gibbs, Ridley like I mentioned. I think Swift and Gibson should be going 2 rounds earlier at least. On and on.

Ponder this - it also means that ok if I'm willing to reach 2 rounds for player X then maybe I take the tight chalk pick player Y that I think I need now and then only reach 1 round for player X later. It isn't rocket science but the real trick is to try to accurately predict the nature of the ground shifting under the fantasy landscape. It's always in motion and maybe you could get player X in round whatever for a while there, but then the August crowd comes in and **** gets wild. Or even more vanilla. But news items come in and of a sudden that player X is going up. Well, like I said, I watch ADP like a hawk.

Some players don't get a bump (one way or the other) when news happens. The Bears moved Monty and drafted a late(r) round rookie that the market doesn't seem to love, and yet Herbert got no bump whatsoever. That's a market inefficiency IMO. Herbert should also be going rounds earlier. Anyway I think it's the best year yet for zero RB but that's a different topic.

 

[Zow]

Drafting ADP is like safely hitting an iron into the fairway. You make a lot of pars that way, but it's not as fun.

 

[shadrap]

When I played in a few of those leagues last year I found that most went by ADP, but there were a few exceptions.

The explanation is that if you want a player and you’re on the clock, you’d best take him if ADP indicates he’s getting picked in the next few picks.

But as always, ADP ≠ rankings.

You can have your rankings, and then use ADP to your advantage. In what was my best draft I landed my WR2 after my WR3 because that’s how they went by ADP.

I find most drafters both use the ADP & also reach for players in those formats. It’s rare to see value slip very far.

The skill in those leagues is knowing how you’re going to build your team, and using ADP to your advantage.

At the end of the day though, ADP is what it is - where *most* leagues are drafting those players. Maybe your league was an extreme example. Do you have a link to the league/draft recap?

Draft Board

fantasy sports league manager

myffpc.com

might work, might not

 

[ericttspikes]

Drafted last night in a $350 Fantasy Pro league. Almost every drafter stuck to ADP. I knew almost all of their picks in the 1st 7-8 rounds or so. Don't know what I'm trying to say here, but how is that fun drafting exactly what other sites tell you? not saying I'm a drafting savant(far from it) but I reach for a guy I like sometimes 2 rounds earlier than ADP. Guess I don't understand.
thanks for listening.

I was in a $350 FFPC classic draft last year where a guy started off drafting 5-6 TE's in a row then I think he did 5 RBs in a row and after the draft said he was doing it cuz everyone else just basically auto drafts and did a rant about there being drafters who were AI bots. He then used the weekly waiver wire to try to fix it from there. Couldn't really tell if he was a genius, a nutter or liked the Twitter mentions he'd get when people posted the crazy draft boards in leagues he was in.

I kind of got his point, but needless to say his team kinds sucked and didn't make it to the playoffs. That was the most extreme anti-ADP draft I've been in. It kind of screwed me up as it was tough to build a balanced team with one guy so off script. I generally use ADP to tell me who probably won't be there on my next pick.

 

[shadrap]

Drafting ADP is like safely hitting an iron into the fairway. You make a lot of pars that way, but it's not as fun.

Ha, know way you are hitting iron off the tee the way you hit your driver!
Seen it first hand.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So sometimes drafting chalk is just fine if it's the kind that I think could win leagues. Metcalf, Gibbs, Ridley like I mentioned. I think Swift and Gibson should be going 2 rounds earlier at least. On and on.

I agree. In fact, the teams I see reach for pre-season darlings usually end up with some of the worst rosters.

Sometimes ADP is what it is because of a pretty solid universal valuation of the player pool - the job of the successful FF manager is to pull the wheat from the chaff in those groupings at ADP.

Another misnomer is that ADP doesn't necessarily mean "next player on the list" - if one looks at ADP and applies tiers from their own rankings, it's a much more useful tool. And as you suggest - if your rankings have 2 dudes with similar value but one has an ADP on FFPC a full round later, then bonus - you know exactly who to take with the greater likelihood of getting them both. ADP can be exploited this way.

And most years I completely disagree with the groupthink on several players - which helps me to narrow down the field a little. As others have said - it's just a tool like any other.

IIRC when I drafted I sorted to most recent 3 weeks ADP. I wanted a feel for who was going where in recent drafts. Using ADP from early June factored in seemed a little silly.

 

[shadrap]

IIRC when I drafted I sorted to most recent 3 weeks ADP. I wanted a feel for who was going where in recent drafts. Using ADP from early June factored in seemed a little silly.

I play in one $350 fantasy pro league & two main event FFPC so I use a $39 per year service(don't think I'm supposed to mention the name) showing FFPC draft ADP by months, sometimes weeks. Yes, June ADP is mostly silly.
I also think FBG now has ADP for FFPC. Going to check out now.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Also I think there's a difference between knowing/following ADP in these national contests versus doing so in a local league. Since I only do one redraft with the same group of guys for close to thirty years now, I barely look at ADP - since it doesn't really mean much to me. There's always going to be some wildcard type draft picks - I try and get the guys I want with a general idea of where they should be going.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Also I think there's a difference between knowing/following ADP in these national contests versus doing so in a local league. Since I only do one redraft with the same group of guys for close to thirty years now, I barely look at ADP - since it doesn't really mean much to me. There's always going to be some wildcard type draft picks - I try and get the guys I want with a general idea of where they should be going.

Oh yeah great point.

My 25 year+ IDP home league is pretty shark-y, but there are always some crazy picks, every year.

 

[barackdhouse]

sounds like a lot of bogeys to me, too

 

[shadrap]

Also I think there's a difference between knowing/following ADP in these national contests versus doing so in a local league. Since I only do one redraft with the same group of guys for close to thirty years now, I barely look at ADP - since it doesn't really mean much to me. There's always going to be some wildcard type draft picks - I try and get the guys I want with a general idea of where they should be going.

Been in my local league for almost 40 years. We now do auction draft and always in person. Lots of stories through the years. one year guy passed out during the draft. We filled out his team. Local leagues are the best. money won is last on the list.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Also I think there's a difference between knowing/following ADP in these national contests versus doing so in a local league. Since I only do one redraft with the same group of guys for close to thirty years now, I barely look at ADP - since it doesn't really mean much to me. There's always going to be some wildcard type draft picks - I try and get the guys I want with a general idea of where they should be going.

Been in my local league for almost 40 years. We now do auction draft and always in person. Lots of stories through the years. one year guy passed out during the draft. We filled out his team. Local leagues are the best. money won is last on the list.

Ours is live in person as well -always down at some one's shore/beach house. Best day of the year.

 

[Zow]

Drafting ADP is like safely hitting an iron into the fairway. You make a lot of pars that way, but it's not as fun.

Ha, know way you are hitting iron off the tee the way you hit your driver!
Seen it first hand.

Should answer your question about my input as to approaching a draft by ADP.

Swing hard and take chances!

 

[msudaisy26]

Not following ADP in these large field tournaments will severely decrease your chances of winning the large prizes at the end of the year.

For you example you really like David Njoku and want to stack him with Watson so you reach on both players at the 5/6 turn. Even if they do help you win your league you are going to be severely outgunned by a lot of other teams that have those players because they got them at the 7/8 turn or even 8/9. So now your 7/8 round players are going up against their round 5/6 guys.

In just regular 12 team leagues it doesn't matter since there is only one of each player.

 

[Chaka]

I get the feeling some people don't understand how the "A" in ADP works.

 

[ZWK]

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Draft ADP Fallers

 

[Gally]

For you example you really like David Njoku and want to stack him with Watson so you reach on both players at the 5/6 turn. Even if they do help you win your league you are going to be severely outgunned by a lot of other teams that have those players because they got them at the 7/8 turn or even 8/9. So now your 7/8 round players are going up against their round 5/6 guys.

This would only really matter if the ADP matched actual output...... which never really happens. There is just a much of a chance that my 7th round pick outscored your 4th round pick as the opposite.

Bottom line is it is all a crap shoot. Do your homework and have fun. Use ADP as a tool. Nobody really knows anything.

 

[Gally]

If you strictly follow ADP you might as well just use autodraft (which works great for some guys)

 

[msudaisy26]

For you example you really like David Njoku and want to stack him with Watson so you reach on both players at the 5/6 turn. Even if they do help you win your league you are going to be severely outgunned by a lot of other teams that have those players because they got them at the 7/8 turn or even 8/9. So now your 7/8 round players are going up against their round 5/6 guys.

This would only really matter if the ADP matched actual output...... which never really happens. There is just a much of a chance that my 7th round pick outscored your 4th round pick as the opposite.

Bottom line is it is all a crap shoot. Do your homework and have fun. Use ADP as a tool. Nobody really knows anything.

Pretty sure you can look at the historical data and that isn't true at all. Your average 4th round pick will out score your average 7th round pick.

Not saying it can't happen, but it isn't an equal chance.

 

[Gally]

For you example you really like David Njoku and want to stack him with Watson so you reach on both players at the 5/6 turn. Even if they do help you win your league you are going to be severely outgunned by a lot of other teams that have those players because they got them at the 7/8 turn or even 8/9. So now your 7/8 round players are going up against their round 5/6 guys.

This would only really matter if the ADP matched actual output...... which never really happens. There is just a much of a chance that my 7th round pick outscored your 4th round pick as the opposite.

Bottom line is it is all a crap shoot. Do your homework and have fun. Use ADP as a tool. Nobody really knows anything.

Pretty sure you can look at the historical data and that isn't true at all. Your average 4th round pick will out score your average 7th round pick.

Not saying it can't happen, but it isn't an equal chance.

Sure as a large sample size. But it doesn't necessarily hold for single situations. The idea is if you can evaluate and trust that you can make up for the loss of "value" by making good picks then you get your guy.

This "value" discussion with regards to ADP is all perception.

 

[Dez]

Would be cool if sites did not use ADP and used Pts scored last year to list the players and people had to think on their own. I like sites like RTS where they use rankings based on projections instead of ADP because those rankings are usually pretty terrible especially hate when a guy times out into the highest ADP on sites love it when they time out into Dalvin Cook in round 3 because the site has them ranked at 27 overall still.

 

[barackdhouse]

Not following ADP in these large field tournaments will severely decrease your chances of winning the large prizes at the end of the year.

For you example you really like David Njoku and want to stack him with Watson so you reach on both players at the 5/6 turn. Even if they do help you win your league you are going to be severely outgunned by a lot of other teams that have those players because they got them at the 7/8 turn or even 8/9. So now your 7/8 round players are going up against their round 5/6 guys.

In just regular 12 team leagues it doesn't matter since there is only one of each player.

Yeah well I love the StackBuilder tool for FFPC (or I forget what he calls it but it queries the FPC database and you can learn what constitutes a unique lineup or semi unique) because you ar right. The more value you can get on player X the more likely you are to hold some leverage against the field if player X ends up being critical to success in the Championship Round.

But I still consider building a winning *combination* to be more important than individual values. So if I want to reach I'm going to reach, period. Even if I know there are competitors out there that got that player cheaper. Do they have the same combo stack as me? All other things being equal they clearly hold an edge (on that one player). But what if I outdraft them everywhere else? What if I get better value on three of four early round picks and they only get that single one over on me? Obviously all things being equal, cheaper is better.

Another angle to this, or spin off if you will, is reacting/not reacting as ADP shifts. Lamar Jackson this offseason for example. I have a few $350 FPC drafts from March/April/May where I got him in the 5th and 6th rounds. He is now going in the 3rd and 4th rounds. That doesn't mean he is currently off my list simply because I could have got him cheaper two months ago. If I still think he can be a league winner (and I do) then that is just the August price for Lamar. It's likely to be a suboptimal lineup relative to my other Lamar lineups if I take him in the 3rd instead of the 6th (especially since I'm competing against my own draft board) but he still might be at the top of my tiers regardless. And there is enough divergence and permutations from the rest of any one draft that who knows what I might build in a 3rd round August Lamar draft vs a 6th round April Lamar draft.

 

[msudaisy26]

For you example you really like David Njoku and want to stack him with Watson so you reach on both players at the 5/6 turn. Even if they do help you win your league you are going to be severely outgunned by a lot of other teams that have those players because they got them at the 7/8 turn or even 8/9. So now your 7/8 round players are going up against their round 5/6 guys.

This would only really matter if the ADP matched actual output...... which never really happens. There is just a much of a chance that my 7th round pick outscored your 4th round pick as the opposite.

Bottom line is it is all a crap shoot. Do your homework and have fun. Use ADP as a tool. Nobody really knows anything.

Pretty sure you can look at the historical data and that isn't true at all. Your average 4th round pick will out score your average 7th round pick.

Not saying it can't happen, but it isn't an equal chance.

Sure as a large sample size. But it doesn't necessarily hold for single situations. The idea is if you can evaluate and trust that you can make up for the loss of "value" by making good picks then you get your guy.

This "value" discussion with regards to ADP is all perception.

Right, but when you are talking about the Fantasy pros and these other large field tournaments it isn't a one off. You are playing against ten thousand up to one million other players.

You can't give away anything if you want to win.

 

[LawFitz]

It's fine to hookup with or even casually date ADP, but marriage should be a hard NO.

I find the most success each year when I get the players I actually want, not the ones that others don't, but supposedly should. That said, I definitely use ADP as a tool to wait for the right time to draft them, even if a round (and hopefully no more) early.

The other benefit to the ADP lists/boards is they allow me to play with roster construction in advance - e.g. if it's a year with a ton of talent that I like at a position in later rounds, I might avoid depth at that position in early rounds, even if 'value' falls to me, so that there is room on my roster for the later pick at that position whom I really like.