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The LB3+ players are guys I'd have some comfort level starting every week. If you're using Orakpo or Matthews in a balanced league, they should probably be in your lineup every week. Too hard to project when either will explode for 6 solos and multiple sacks. And I'd roster them only if you're comfortable with the boom-bust nature you note -- getting LB1 numbers some weeks and below replacement level numbers in others. I think Orakpo and Matthews are 9-10 good game, 6-7 poor game players -- my cutoff for an every week LB3.The base defensive ILB (Hawk, etc) are a different breed. You roster them as your LB4/LB5 and plan to use them only when the matchup suggests a 70% base defense split or better. Though it may not always play out that way, your chances of guessing right are much higher in this group than the 3-4 OLB pass rushing matchup.'Caveman_Nick said:
I see...we are talking about a philosophy difference. If I have players that I am using and have to guess whether or not they are going to produce, I'd prefer to guess with Hawk than Matthews. At the end of the year Hawk is probably going to outscore Matthews, so if I am occasionally wrong on the guess, on the average I will be better off.I used these players as my example because I am rostering all three in my LB corps on one of my dynasty teams (LB is not the team's strength, just a place where I don't want to fall behind). I am running Ryans every week and more likely than not Hawk, unless I really like the match-up for Scott or Rivers. The third spot is getting tossed up between Orakpo, Matthews, Rivers and Scott. If I feel like my team is in a good position to out point the other team everywhere else then I will usually pick the safer LB option. If it looks like I need a big week from my LBs to win, I start Orakpo or Matthews...or both.
Tatupu is a better on the field, in the huddle player than a box score player. If he's healthy, he's the MLB and will play every down. Curry is a base defensive SLB and had all kinds of different roles in subpackages last year, from rush DE to OLB to rush NT. His role probably doesn't change next year either.Hawthorne's upside depends on two things. First, if/when Tatupu is dinged, his range and pursuit skills will allow him to beat Tatupu to the ball often. Second, Kim Herring (who replaced Hawthorne on nickel snaps last year) is a FA and may not return. If Hawthorne wins the nickel job and the Seahawks use more of it than 2010 (when they didn't use it all that much), he's an easy LB2.
I like Sturdivant, but I can't see the sixth round pick bumping Lenon from any packages (barring injury) without a playbook, OTAs and lots of camp practices. He's definitely worth watching, but I think there are long odds against him playing much this year.
I think he's likely to slot somewhere between Dwight Freeney and John Abraham as a matchup DL2/DL3. I'd expect 70% or more of the team's snaps at RDE, marginal tackle numbers and a strong chance at double digit sacks. His 2007 stats (34 solos and 12 sacks) are probably in reach and I definitely think he'll do better than 2008, when a thumb problem (I think) held him back to 17 solos and 5 sacks.
Thanks Jene!...Ayers at LDE?
Ayers is a little tougher to project. I thought he was a 4-3 LDE before he was drafted and he showed flashes of strong play last year against the run. I think he gets the majority of the snaps at LDE and could be a 40-8 type player. Fox hasn't rotated his ends much, so if Ayers looks like he can hold up as an every-down player, he has lots of upside. Don't think he's a Charles Johnson v2010 in the making, but there might be Will Smith upside if things break well.
How can you tell what how often the defense is going to be in base formation? Is it guesswork based on the opponent. Like say a team goes up against the colts, then they are probably only going to be in base formation less than 50% of the time?
On average, a defense will probably be in some sort of subpackage between 40 and 50 percent of their snaps. I'll usually consider the following when deciding how many snaps a platoon player (nickel corner, base defensive linebacker, situational rusher, etc) might get in a given week:* How likely the defense is to be ahead (more nickel snaps) or behind (less nickel snaps) and how early that might happen
Levy, maybe. Poz? He's a madman.
I think Fletcher showed the first signs of a decline in play last year and it didn't help that Landry was so effective in the box. But, barring a surprise change in role, I think he's definitely in that 85-92+ solo range category in 2011. More risk than last year, but worth it in the LB15-25 range.
Jene I didn't see Michael Johnson listed but didn't read every post. Where would you put him at this point?
No clarity on Johnson for me, other than that I expect him to be a situational player. Whether that's as a roving DL in subpackages or as a part-time SLB with nickel rushing duty is hard to say. That affects where he's listed on management sites and what his tackle upside will be.I wouldn't roster him as more than a developmental DL4 in deep dynasty leagues today.
Yes, Bloom and I will again be doing our positional tier articles for the website this year. Tentatively planning on starting those this week, and begin rolling them out regularly after we get some information after the first preseason week of games.
Did that a little with the defensive ends. I'll try to do better on that, or I may just start a new tier thread after the first week of preseason games.
That is really surprising. I also heard that the Bengals might go 3-4 on some plays, so Johnson will become an OLB on those packages.Really kill Dunlaps value though'cheese said:
Do you need some help with this? My patience is wearing thin here. I checked your buddy IDPGuru (LLandry#1 as of yesterday's update), and I even found fantasy DBs ranked at trusted PFF. They all left much to be desired. Hustle up, doc. I have a major draft tomorrow.
Trying to get back to this thread, really I am. Reviewing preseason games, setting up the survivor, working on the positional tier series with Bloom, doing some prep work for From the Gut and an IDP Perfect Draft feature all unfortunately getting in the way. Updated my rankings for the website late this week, though, and should have another update ready tomorrow or Monday after watching the rest of the weekend's games.Do you need some help with this? My patience is wearing thin here. I checked your buddy IDPGuru (LLandry#1 as of yesterday's update), and I even found fantasy DBs ranked at trusted PFF. They all left much to be desired. Hustle up, doc. I have a major draft tomorrow.
Need those coaches to come in here and explain what they're doing
I don't think I ever formally updated the first post, so May 12.Rankings updated for the site this afternoon. Bloom and I have started our positional tier series. Those should begin rolling out soon and continue over the next couple of weeks.
Yep, probably concerned about the health of his Achilles.
I think Atogwe would be the primary beneficiary. If Landry misses games, then someone like Doughty would potentially fill in. But I see Atogwe as the one who benefits the most regardless.
Are these one the way soon - last year they started (being released) much earlier and were all done by 8/27Drafting gets hot and heavy for many of us very soon so they won't be nearly as useful after our drafts
In the process of writing them all this week. QB has already been submitted. DL should follow shortly.Are these one the way soon - last year they started (being released) much earlier and were all done by 8/27Drafting gets hot and heavy for many of us very soon so they won't be nearly as useful after our drafts
