EBF
Footballguy
QUARTERBACKS
Philip Rivers, Chargers - Rivers has been a top 10 QB for several years in a row and could be a nice sleeper pick after a rough year in 2011. If you aren't inclined to spend an early pick on one of the more hyped up options this year, I think planning to nab Rivers in the QB8-QB12 range could be a good strategy. There's some risk that the loss of Vincent Jackson will hurt his numbers, but I think Royal and Meachem can collectively help fill most of the gap.
Jay Cutler, Bears - Cutler is nothing special, but the addition of legitimate receiving weapons in Brandon Marshall and possibly Alshon Jeffery should provide a nice boost to his numbers and make him a viable fringe QB1 in most formats.
Matt Schaub, Texans - I think Schaub is the most underrated player in the NFL. All of the stats suggest that he has been one of the best quarterbacks in football for years, but he is never discussed among the elite. With Houston looking like a run-first team, I don't expect a monster FF season for Schaub. Nevertheless, he is a very good player and one of the safest backup options available. If his number of pass attempts increases for some unforeseen reason, he's fully capable of posting a top 10 season.
Joe Flacco, Ravens - I don't expect any massive improvements, but he's only a year removed from a top 12 finish and could benefit from the continued maturity of Torrey Smith and Ed Dickson. If nothing else, he's a really solid backup and a good candidate for teams that employ a QB-by-committee strategy.
RUNNING BACKS
Trent Richardson, Browns - If he is healthy, I think Richardson can instantly be among the top 3 all-around backs in the NFL. He is a rare talent with a complete game. The Browns won't score a lot of points and that could keep his production down, but Richardson will be their entire offense. If he can stay reasonably healthy, I think he'll reward investors with a big rookie season.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins - Bush has always been a good PPR option when given opportunities and there's no reason to expect anything different this year in Miami. He has durability issues, but so do several of the backs ranked ahead of him. Reggie is an ideal RB2 this year and possibly even a good cheap RB1 option for teams who opt for a different position with their first couple picks.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers - Martin is not quite as good as Richardson, but he can be just as effective for FF purposes. He is a do-everything back who can not only run hard and accumulate lots of carries, but also add significant value as a receiver. There's some risk that Blount's presence will limit his touches, but Martin seemingly has the talent and opportunity to finish as a top 10 RB this year.
CJ Spiller, Bills - Spiller was one of the most productive backs in FF down the stretch last year, so I find the lack of hype for his 2012 prospects a bit puzzling. I have always felt that Spiller is a bit of a RB/WR tweener who isn't cut out for full-time duty, but he is just as explosive as guys like Charles and McFadden and is one of the few backs routinely falling out of the top 20 RBs who has the potential to be a real difference-maker.
Cedric Benson, Packers - Remember when Corey Dillon signed with New England and had a sudden career renaissance after being discarded by the Bengals? I could see Benson achieving something similar. Benson is the first real starting caliber RB the Packers have had in the Rodgers era and I expect him to add another dimension to an already potent offense. Benson has never had the luxury of playing on a talented offense. With defenses keying on Rodgers and company, I like his chances to exceed expectations this season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Dez Bryant, Cowboys - I've always felt that Bryant has elite talent, so I think it's only a matter of time until that translates to elite FF production. He had the best season of his career last year and should be even better as a third year pro. He has WR1 ability at WR2 cost.
Torrey Smith, Ravens - I wasn't a huge fan of his entering the league, but you can't argue with results. Smith was a highly-touted prospect out of Maryland and he backup up the hype with a big rookie season. I wouldn't feel comfortable with him as a WR1 or WR2, but if you can get him for WR3 prices then I think he's a great option.
Santonio Holmes, Jets - Holmes has been a disappointment since moving to New York, but he is a lot more talented than the receivers ranked around him. If they can do a better job of getting him the ball then he can be a solid WR2. He is still in his prime.
Sidney Rice, Seahawks - An injury waiting to happen, but when he plays, he's dynamic. Why not gamble on him as your WR4 or WR5? He's easily the best WR on the Seahawks and if he can somehow stay healthy then he has a massive upside at his current cost.
Justin Blackmon, Jaguars - Blackmon's game reminds me of Anquan Boldin and I think he has the potential to have that kind of rookie year. He is easily the best receiver on Jacksonville's roster and should benefit by reaping the lion's share of the targets as a rookie.
Jon Baldwin, Chiefs - Baldwin has been quiet through two preseason games, but I believe he's every bit the talent that Dwayne Bowe is. I'm not sure the opportunity is there for Baldwin to have his breakout year, as there might not be enough targets to go around, but if you're looking for a high upside WR in the later rounds then he's a great candidate. He has the tools to be a #1 receiver in the NFL and should be much improved in his sophomore season.
TIGHT ENDS
Jermaine Gresham, Bengals - The second best receiver on the Bengals should benefit from the attention given by defenses to AJ Green. Gresham has been a steady player so far in his NFL career. I think this might be the year when he takes the next step. Even if he doesn't, he's still a solid fringe TE1.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings - Rudolph is an ideal TE2 because he can fill in during bye weeks and injuries, but he also has the upside to become a surprise breakout player.
Martellus Bennett, Giants - Opportunity is the big word here. Bennett never had it in Dallas behind Jason Witten, but he is the most talented TE on the Giants and presents good value as a TE2 with TE1 upside.
Philip Rivers, Chargers - Rivers has been a top 10 QB for several years in a row and could be a nice sleeper pick after a rough year in 2011. If you aren't inclined to spend an early pick on one of the more hyped up options this year, I think planning to nab Rivers in the QB8-QB12 range could be a good strategy. There's some risk that the loss of Vincent Jackson will hurt his numbers, but I think Royal and Meachem can collectively help fill most of the gap.
Jay Cutler, Bears - Cutler is nothing special, but the addition of legitimate receiving weapons in Brandon Marshall and possibly Alshon Jeffery should provide a nice boost to his numbers and make him a viable fringe QB1 in most formats.
Matt Schaub, Texans - I think Schaub is the most underrated player in the NFL. All of the stats suggest that he has been one of the best quarterbacks in football for years, but he is never discussed among the elite. With Houston looking like a run-first team, I don't expect a monster FF season for Schaub. Nevertheless, he is a very good player and one of the safest backup options available. If his number of pass attempts increases for some unforeseen reason, he's fully capable of posting a top 10 season.
Joe Flacco, Ravens - I don't expect any massive improvements, but he's only a year removed from a top 12 finish and could benefit from the continued maturity of Torrey Smith and Ed Dickson. If nothing else, he's a really solid backup and a good candidate for teams that employ a QB-by-committee strategy.
RUNNING BACKS
Trent Richardson, Browns - If he is healthy, I think Richardson can instantly be among the top 3 all-around backs in the NFL. He is a rare talent with a complete game. The Browns won't score a lot of points and that could keep his production down, but Richardson will be their entire offense. If he can stay reasonably healthy, I think he'll reward investors with a big rookie season.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins - Bush has always been a good PPR option when given opportunities and there's no reason to expect anything different this year in Miami. He has durability issues, but so do several of the backs ranked ahead of him. Reggie is an ideal RB2 this year and possibly even a good cheap RB1 option for teams who opt for a different position with their first couple picks.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers - Martin is not quite as good as Richardson, but he can be just as effective for FF purposes. He is a do-everything back who can not only run hard and accumulate lots of carries, but also add significant value as a receiver. There's some risk that Blount's presence will limit his touches, but Martin seemingly has the talent and opportunity to finish as a top 10 RB this year.
CJ Spiller, Bills - Spiller was one of the most productive backs in FF down the stretch last year, so I find the lack of hype for his 2012 prospects a bit puzzling. I have always felt that Spiller is a bit of a RB/WR tweener who isn't cut out for full-time duty, but he is just as explosive as guys like Charles and McFadden and is one of the few backs routinely falling out of the top 20 RBs who has the potential to be a real difference-maker.
Cedric Benson, Packers - Remember when Corey Dillon signed with New England and had a sudden career renaissance after being discarded by the Bengals? I could see Benson achieving something similar. Benson is the first real starting caliber RB the Packers have had in the Rodgers era and I expect him to add another dimension to an already potent offense. Benson has never had the luxury of playing on a talented offense. With defenses keying on Rodgers and company, I like his chances to exceed expectations this season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Dez Bryant, Cowboys - I've always felt that Bryant has elite talent, so I think it's only a matter of time until that translates to elite FF production. He had the best season of his career last year and should be even better as a third year pro. He has WR1 ability at WR2 cost.
Torrey Smith, Ravens - I wasn't a huge fan of his entering the league, but you can't argue with results. Smith was a highly-touted prospect out of Maryland and he backup up the hype with a big rookie season. I wouldn't feel comfortable with him as a WR1 or WR2, but if you can get him for WR3 prices then I think he's a great option.
Santonio Holmes, Jets - Holmes has been a disappointment since moving to New York, but he is a lot more talented than the receivers ranked around him. If they can do a better job of getting him the ball then he can be a solid WR2. He is still in his prime.
Sidney Rice, Seahawks - An injury waiting to happen, but when he plays, he's dynamic. Why not gamble on him as your WR4 or WR5? He's easily the best WR on the Seahawks and if he can somehow stay healthy then he has a massive upside at his current cost.
Justin Blackmon, Jaguars - Blackmon's game reminds me of Anquan Boldin and I think he has the potential to have that kind of rookie year. He is easily the best receiver on Jacksonville's roster and should benefit by reaping the lion's share of the targets as a rookie.
Jon Baldwin, Chiefs - Baldwin has been quiet through two preseason games, but I believe he's every bit the talent that Dwayne Bowe is. I'm not sure the opportunity is there for Baldwin to have his breakout year, as there might not be enough targets to go around, but if you're looking for a high upside WR in the later rounds then he's a great candidate. He has the tools to be a #1 receiver in the NFL and should be much improved in his sophomore season.
TIGHT ENDS
Jermaine Gresham, Bengals - The second best receiver on the Bengals should benefit from the attention given by defenses to AJ Green. Gresham has been a steady player so far in his NFL career. I think this might be the year when he takes the next step. Even if he doesn't, he's still a solid fringe TE1.
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings - Rudolph is an ideal TE2 because he can fill in during bye weeks and injuries, but he also has the upside to become a surprise breakout player.
Martellus Bennett, Giants - Opportunity is the big word here. Bennett never had it in Dallas behind Jason Witten, but he is the most talented TE on the Giants and presents good value as a TE2 with TE1 upside.
