Reggie Bush, RB, Miami Dolphins (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Bush, RB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Reggie Bush Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The first RB I've thought of in comparison to where Reggie Bush is at this stage of his career is Tiki Barber.

Barber if you'll recall struggled to establish a foothold in the NFL for the first 4-5 years of his career. But he built up his body while maintaining his quickness and flexibility and spent the latter half of his career as one of the great workhorse backs of the last 25 years.

This isn't to say Bush is on the cusp of a string of 350 touch seasons. The second player I thought of was Felix Jones. But during the Dolphins 2nd half resurrgence when they almost saved Sparano's job by going 5-3, Reggie Bush became the guy. Truth be told...Bush was an uber-stud during this stretch in averaging over 20 touches/game, 116.6 YFS/game and totaling 6 TD's.

Will new HC Joe Philbin subject Bush to that type of workload in 2012? That's obviously a big question, but with Brandon Marshall gone, it seems more than plausible to suggest that Bush is MIA's best offensive player and it's not even close.

The Dolphins have the makings of a fairly solid O-Line and with below average production at QB, it's quite possible that the Dolphins will make a concerted effort to run the ball which provides enough opportunity for them to work in 2nd year RB Daniel Thomas in addition to rookie Lamar Miller. Are either players threats to Bush...? I don't think so so long as Bush stays healthy which is a big enough if that the owner who drafts Bush may have to overdraft his handcuff...and that won't be a clear cut choice probably by draft time in August.

So Bush still has a significant degree of risk attached to him, but for perhaps the first time in his career, has some significant RB1 upside given the watered down nature of the position. On the plus side as well is a schedule that does not look all that daunting at the outset. Aside from a match-up against @HOU in the seasons opening game...the next 11 games feature only 1 team that finished in the Top 10 in rushing defense in 2012 (Cincinnati - #10).

For the first time in my FF career - I'm bullish on Bush.

Prediction: 223 carries, 1137 rushing yards 7 TD's; 58 receptions 385 receiving yards, 2 TD's. If Trent Richardson is getting Round 2 love...I think Bush is a great value in Round 3.

 

[Nero]

180car 700yds 3td

60rec 450yds 2td

 

[Pictus Cat]

What I love about Bush is versatility. Used in so many ways that you need. Can be played in any situation.

800 yds 7 scores

45 rec 400 yds 4 scores

 

[Jason Wood]

I think it's fair to say that Bush surprised almost everyone a year ago. After years of showing us that he couldn't be a productive NFL runner, he goes to Miami and does just that. He looked like a new man in 2011 and that seemingly sets him up for more in 2012. BUT...it's difficult not to have some caution. Daniel Thomas can't be forgotten, particularly with a new coaching staff aboard. While I have no reason to think the new offensive coaches won't want to utilize Bush, we also don't know that they're going to commit to him in the same way Sparano and Company did. If you're in a PPR league though (which many of us are), I fully expect Bush to vie with the likes of Darren Sproles for most receptions by a RB. The Dolphins have an almost unbelievably barren cupboard at the WR and TE positions, and the quarterbacks are going to have no choice but to find the backs religiously.

 

[mphtrilogy]

I cannot see it two years in a row, and with the Lamar and Thomas... well, I think it will be a down year... 6 tds, 190 carries, 1000 yards rushing, 40 catches 400 yards 2 tds receiving

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think it's fair to say that Bush surprised almost everyone a year ago. After years of showing us that he couldn't be a productive NFL runner, he goes to Miami and does just that. He looked like a new man in 2011 and that seemingly sets him up for more in 2012. BUT...it's difficult not to have some caution. Daniel Thomas can't be forgotten, particularly with a new coaching staff aboard. While I have no reason to think the new offensive coaches won't want to utilize Bush, we also don't know that they're going to commit to him in the same way Sparano and Company did. If you're in a PPR league though (which many of us are), I fully expect Bush to vie with the likes of Darren Sproles for most receptions by a RB. The Dolphins have an almost unbelievably barren cupboard at the WR and TE positions, and the quarterbacks are going to have no choice but to find the backs religiously.

I actually think the new coaching staff could be a detriment to Thomas. He struggled his rookie year to stay healthy and with a coaching staff that was not involved in drafting Thomas...patience could be in short supply. While I don't dispute that Thomas should be able to carve out a role for himself, I see this shaping up similarly to how the Warrick Dunn/TJ Duckett platoon wound up working out for the Falcons years ago with Duckett becoming a specialist of sorts and the backfield not really becoming a true RBBC.

 

[Prussian]

Bush had a suprising year last year in Miami. Most people agree with that as well, "suprising". If it is so surprising to so many, why the expectation to do it again? He's a stubbed toe or a good camp from D. Thomas away from being that "specialty player". I expect to see Thomas and Miller being a RBBC and Bush relgated to the slot more than a true RB this year. Put it this way, is there a better slot WR on the roster today?

I see Bush being more of a Sproles or even Harvin-like player who is dangerous with the ball, but no one wants to see taking a direct hit.

Prediction: 140 carries, 609 rushing yards 3 TD's; 64 receptions 465 receiving yards, 4 TD's. ... assuming a full season, but expect him being out 2-3 games.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Big contract year for Bush...if they play him and he stays healthy it could mean big returns for owners. Problem is I don't truly know what the role will be for the RB1 in this offense just yet. The OLine is going to be improved but just how committed is Philbin and Sherman to the run? Hard to project numbers right now on Bush but he has been talking up a storm this off season and wanting to break records running the football. I will say that he has never looked more comfortable running than he did in Joe Robbie Stadium last year.

 

[Blackjacks]

I cannot see it two years in a row, and with the Lamar and Thomas... well, I think it will be a down year... 6 tds, 190 carries, 1000 yards rushing, 40 catches 400 yards 2 tds receiving

1400 total yards and 8 td's is a down year?

That would make him a top 10 rb more than likely

 

[TheFanatic]

I am the biggest Bush basher on the board, so yeah, I was shocked last year.

Can he do it again? Thomas is going to have a full off season with a medical staff to keep him healthy, but these guys didn't draft him. Still, one would think he will get a chance because it is a contract year for Reggie so they have to see what the kid can do.

That being said, I think Reggie has s chance for 1300 total yards and 10 TDs as a ceiling and 600 total as a floor if the kid can merit a lot of carries.

 

[Blackjacks]

I am the biggest Bush basher on the board, so yeah, I was shocked last year. Can he do it again? Thomas is going to have a full off season with a medical staff to keep him healthy, but these guys didn't draft him. Still, one would think he will get a chance because it is a contract year for Reggie so they have to see what the kid can do.That being said, I think Reggie has s chance for 1300 total yards and 10 TDs as a ceiling and 600 total as a floor if the kid can merit a lot of carries.

Fanatic......Are you feeling okay?

 

[johnadams]

There were several interesting developments as it relates to Bush last year.

1) Remaining relatively healthy. He had his healthiest season since his rookie year. If he stays healthy, I don't see any reason why he can't IMPROVE on his combined rushing/receiving numbers.

2) He busted a 5 ypc over the heaviest workload of his career. There's been signs previously that he was improving as a RB, but he seemed so deficient over the first few years as a RB that I certainly wouldn't have expected such a strong performance over a 200+ carry season.

3) He was not reliant on pass catching. In fact, it was easily his worst performance as a receiver with the only time in his career with fewer receptions when he played only 8 games. To me, this is the most interesting element as it shows a potential to really increase his production given his history.

In reality, his carry total last year was right in line with a standard RBBC (216) while his receiving production was unusually low for a back with his receiving/open field skills. If he remains healthy, I think he's going to be a steal in redrafts. Also, Bush right now is the best playmaker (by a large margin) on MIA, so I could easily see his workload, especially in the passing game, increase. For a full season, I see the rushing totals remaining similar, but his receiving totals to increase.

Ceiling: 1200 yds rush, 8 TDs, 75 receptions, 800 yds, 8 TDs.

Forecast: 900 yds rush, 6 TDs, 50 recepetions, 600 yds, 5 TDs.

Floor: 400 yds rush, 2 TDs, 20 receptions, 300 yds, 1 TD (injury adjusted).

Of course, this is all with the caveat of health, which, while always a concern for RBs, really affects his value.

 

[TheFanatic]

There were several interesting developments as it relates to Bush last year.1) Remaining relatively healthy. He had his healthiest season since his rookie year. If he stays healthy, I don't see any reason why he can't IMPROVE on his combined rushing/receiving numbers.2) He busted a 5 ypc over the heaviest workload of his career. There's been signs previously that he was improving as a RB, but he seemed so deficient over the first few years as a RB that I certainly wouldn't have expected such a strong performance over a 200+ carry season.3) He was not reliant on pass catching. In fact, it was easily his worst performance as a receiver with the only time in his career with fewer receptions when he played only 8 games. To me, this is the most interesting element as it shows a potential to really increase his production given his history.In reality, his carry total last year was right in line with a standard RBBC (216) while his receiving production was unusually low for a back with his receiving/open field skills. If he remains healthy, I think he's going to be a steal in redrafts. Also, Bush right now is the best playmaker (by a large margin) on MIA, so I could easily see his workload, especially in the passing game, increase. For a full season, I see the rushing totals remaining similar, but his receiving totals to increase. Ceiling: 1200 yds rush, 8 TDs, 75 receptions, 800 yds, 8 TDs. Forecast: 900 yds rush, 6 TDs, 50 recepetions, 600 yds, 5 TDs.Floor: 400 yds rush, 2 TDs, 20 receptions, 300 yds, 1 TD (injury adjusted).Of course, this is all with the caveat of health, which, while always a concern for RBs, really affects his value.

Has he ever averaged over 10 yards a catch? I don't think so. You might want to either adjust up the catches or down the yards.

 

[johnadams]

There were several interesting developments as it relates to Bush last year.1) Remaining relatively healthy. He had his healthiest season since his rookie year. If he stays healthy, I don't see any reason why he can't IMPROVE on his combined rushing/receiving numbers.2) He busted a 5 ypc over the heaviest workload of his career. There's been signs previously that he was improving as a RB, but he seemed so deficient over the first few years as a RB that I certainly wouldn't have expected such a strong performance over a 200+ carry season.3) He was not reliant on pass catching. In fact, it was easily his worst performance as a receiver with the only time in his career with fewer receptions when he played only 8 games. To me, this is the most interesting element as it shows a potential to really increase his production given his history.In reality, his carry total last year was right in line with a standard RBBC (216) while his receiving production was unusually low for a back with his receiving/open field skills. If he remains healthy, I think he's going to be a steal in redrafts. Also, Bush right now is the best playmaker (by a large margin) on MIA, so I could easily see his workload, especially in the passing game, increase. For a full season, I see the rushing totals remaining similar, but his receiving totals to increase. Ceiling: 1200 yds rush, 8 TDs, 75 receptions, 800 yds, 8 TDs. Forecast: 900 yds rush, 6 TDs, 50 recepetions, 600 yds, 5 TDs.Floor: 400 yds rush, 2 TDs, 20 receptions, 300 yds, 1 TD (injury adjusted).Of course, this is all with the caveat of health, which, while always a concern for RBs, really affects his value.

Has he ever averaged over 10 yards a catch? I don't think so. You might want to either adjust up the catches or down the yards.

Good point. But I'll leave it for now.

 

[TS Garp]

I wonder how much the loss of Marshall and the questions at QB will impact Bush this season. Say what you will about Marshall, but the fact is that he commands the respect of defenses and he does force them to pay a bit more attention to the passing game. Given the fact that Miami now has almost no real threats at WR and a murky QB situation, defenses will be able to focus their entire game plan on stopping Bush. I think he'll have a tough time with that. In terms of competition, I'm not as concerned about Thomas, who looked like a real plodder, but Lamar Smith should get more and more touches as the season goes on and Miami wants to see what they have.

My prediction:

210 carries, 903 yards, 6 td's, 4.3 ypc, 48 receptions, 312 yards, 1 td, 6.5 ypr

 

[jdswan922]

I wonder how much the loss of Marshall and the questions at QB will impact Bush this season. Say what you will about Marshall, but the fact is that he commands the respect of defenses and he does force them to pay a bit more attention to the passing game. Given the fact that Miami now has almost no real threats at WR and a murky QB situation, defenses will be able to focus their entire game plan on stopping Bush. I think he'll have a tough time with that. In terms of competition, I'm not as concerned about Thomas, who looked like a real plodder, but Lamar Smith should get more and more touches as the season goes on and Miami wants to see what they have.

My prediction:

210 carries, 903 yards, 6 td's, 4.3 ypc, 48 receptions, 312 yards, 1 td, 6.5 ypr

Is he coming out of retirement?

 

[TS Garp]

I wonder how much the loss of Marshall and the questions at QB will impact Bush this season. Say what you will about Marshall, but the fact is that he commands the respect of defenses and he does force them to pay a bit more attention to the passing game. Given the fact that Miami now has almost no real threats at WR and a murky QB situation, defenses will be able to focus their entire game plan on stopping Bush. I think he'll have a tough time with that. In terms of competition, I'm not as concerned about Thomas, who looked like a real plodder, but Lamar Smith should get more and more touches as the season goes on and Miami wants to see what they have.

My prediction:

210 carries, 903 yards, 6 td's, 4.3 ypc, 48 receptions, 312 yards, 1 td, 6.5 ypr

Is he coming out of retirement?

Ha -- showing my age there.

 

[Jercules]

Surprised no one's mentioned whether or not he'll retain return duties. Seems like a pretty good tell right there; if Bush is still a returner in any capacity, they obviously don't intend to use him as a workhorse.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I feel like he had a huge December but was fairly ordinary otherwise, but I could be wrong about that. I still think Daniel Thomas can be a productive RB. Overall Bush is in that group of round 4ish backs that I'm looking to avoid. There will almost certainly be a handful of WRs I would rather have when Bush is available (current ADP non PPR is 49, RB 20) such as Harvin, D Thomas, Maclin, Lloyd etc

 

[Grahamburn]

I feel like he had a huge December but was fairly ordinary otherwise, but I could be wrong about that. I still think Daniel Thomas can be a productive RB. Overall Bush is in that group of round 4ish backs that I'm looking to avoid. There will almost certainly be a handful of WRs I would rather have when Bush is available (current ADP non PPR is 49, RB 20) such as Harvin, D Thomas, Maclin, Lloyd etc

He did have a huge December, but he was fantastic for the entire second half of the season. However, Reggie didn't have a rushing TD until the Dolphins' 8th game against the Giants, and it seemed like Miami was content to use both Bush and Thomas in a full blown committee until Thomas' injury. Thomas actually dominated the carries until Reggie's breakout game against the Giants, which Thomas missed with an injury. That being said, the coaching staff has changed and when they put on the tape I think they'll see a superior player in Reggie Bush.With the lack of receiving options on this team the Dolphins would be wise to use Reggie Bush in a "do it all" capacity on offense. Put him in the backfield, split him out wide, put him in the slot, etc. I see a pretty decent increase in Reggie's receiving numbers in 2012, and expect his yards per catch to go up from his 2011 mark of 6.9, because Miami should use him a bit more often as a down-field threat.I expect Miami to continue to be a running team. They have several capable players now at the position in Bush, Thomas, and Miller, so Reggie isn't about to become a 250+ carry back. He'll likely come in a little under the 216 total he had in 2011, but he seems to have turned a corner as a between the tackles runner. 195 carries at 4.6 per carry is 897 yards. 65 receptions at 7.8 per catch is 507 yards. 7 Total TDs.

 

[TheFanatic]

I think it's fair to say that Bush surprised almost everyone a year ago. After years of showing us that he couldn't be a productive NFL runner, he goes to Miami and does just that. He looked like a new man in 2011 and that seemingly sets him up for more in 2012. BUT...it's difficult not to have some caution. Daniel Thomas can't be forgotten, particularly with a new coaching staff aboard. While I have no reason to think the new offensive coaches won't want to utilize Bush, we also don't know that they're going to commit to him in the same way Sparano and Company did. If you're in a PPR league though (which many of us are), I fully expect Bush to vie with the likes of Darren Sproles for most receptions by a RB. The Dolphins have an almost unbelievably barren cupboard at the WR and TE positions, and the quarterbacks are going to have no choice but to find the backs religiously.

I actually think the new coaching staff could be a detriment to Thomas. He struggled his rookie year to stay healthy and with a coaching staff that was not involved in drafting Thomas...patience could be in short supply. While I don't dispute that Thomas should be able to carve out a role for himself, I see this shaping up similarly to how the Warrick Dunn/TJ Duckett platoon wound up working out for the Falcons years ago with Duckett becoming a specialist of sorts and the backfield not really becoming a true RBBC.

The current regime didn't draft Thomas? No they didn't. They also didn't sign Reggie Bush. I would say a new regime is a detriment to both, not just one or the other.

 

[Sleeper 43]

History still shows hes still too much if an injury risk to rely upon as a RB2 in Redraft formats. 2 consecutive seasons being injury free would change my tune, I'm just not willing to hedge my bets on him being a cornerstone for my team.

 

[saintfool]

Surprised no one's mentioned whether or not he'll retain return duties. Seems like a pretty good tell right there; if Bush is still a returner in any capacity, they obviously don't intend to use him as a workhorse.

the last thing i read about him indicated he was not expected to do either punt or kick off returns.

 

[Grahamburn]

History still shows hes still too much if an injury risk to rely upon as a RB2 in Redraft formats. 2 consecutive seasons being injury free would change my tune, I'm just not willing to hedge my bets on him being a cornerstone for my team.

Which RB2 candidates aren't an injury risk?

 

[Bird]

Some thoroughbred horses perform considerably better on one track surface as compared to others. Some experts say that is due in part to how the horses' legs feel when running on that surface. I think Reggie has found his surface. Before last season, he had played more than two-thirds of his games on Turf. Last year, he played two-thirds of his games on Grass and the difference showed. I'm not saying his career stats on Grass are better than those on Turf but it did seem like Reggie felt healthier than he usually does late in a season and that showed in his numbers for last December. Playing the majority of his games on Grass appears to have given Reggie the mental boost to succeed. We all knew he had the physical ability.

1480 total yards(rushing and receiving only)/50 receptions/7 total TD

He is looking like an absolute bargain again for PPR leagues.

 

[Sleeper 43]

History still shows hes still too much if an injury risk to rely upon as a RB2 in Redraft formats. 2 consecutive seasons being injury free would change my tune, I'm just not willing to hedge my bets on him being a cornerstone for my team.

Which RB2 candidates aren't an injury risk?

Plenty who were not hurt 5 of 6 seasons. Im not saying anyone cant be hurt at anytime but some are more fragile than others.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think it's fair to say that Bush surprised almost everyone a year ago. After years of showing us that he couldn't be a productive NFL runner, he goes to Miami and does just that. He looked like a new man in 2011 and that seemingly sets him up for more in 2012. BUT...it's difficult not to have some caution. Daniel Thomas can't be forgotten, particularly with a new coaching staff aboard. While I have no reason to think the new offensive coaches won't want to utilize Bush, we also don't know that they're going to commit to him in the same way Sparano and Company did. If you're in a PPR league though (which many of us are), I fully expect Bush to vie with the likes of Darren Sproles for most receptions by a RB. The Dolphins have an almost unbelievably barren cupboard at the WR and TE positions, and the quarterbacks are going to have no choice but to find the backs religiously.

I actually think the new coaching staff could be a detriment to Thomas. He struggled his rookie year to stay healthy and with a coaching staff that was not involved in drafting Thomas...patience could be in short supply. While I don't dispute that Thomas should be able to carve out a role for himself, I see this shaping up similarly to how the Warrick Dunn/TJ Duckett platoon wound up working out for the Falcons years ago with Duckett becoming a specialist of sorts and the backfield not really becoming a true RBBC.

The current regime didn't draft Thomas? No they didn't. They also didn't sign Reggie Bush. I would say a new regime is a detriment to both, not just one or the other.

Would you say that Bush a more proven and established NFL commodity versus Thomas? While your statement is true, Bush is the player between the two who established himself whereas we're not even sure Thomas is an NFL calibre RB yet. Fact is, Bush is far more entrenched in MIA than is Thomas who could potentially start losing work to Lamar Miller if Miller flashes and Thomas does not. Now, could Miller emerge? I can't discount that, but I don't think Bush did anything last year or this off-season to indicate he doesn't have a stranglehold on RB1 in MIA.

 

[Grahamburn]

History still shows hes still too much if an injury risk to rely upon as a RB2 in Redraft formats. 2 consecutive seasons being injury free would change my tune, I'm just not willing to hedge my bets on him being a cornerstone for my team.

Which RB2 candidates aren't an injury risk?

Plenty who were not hurt 5 of 6 seasons. Im not saying anyone cant be hurt at anytime but some are more fragile than others.

Not to get too far off track, but according to ADP the RBs that could be considered possible RB2s going before Reggie Bush are:McFadden

Forte

Richardson

Murray

Peterson

Charles

SJAX

Lynch

Sproles

FJAX

Bradshaw

Turner

Gore

Martin

I bolded the ones that are at least as risky as Reggie Bush to succumb to injury. Two of the others are rookies. Turner is clearly approaching the wall. Lynch has his own issues. Are we sure Sproles gets the same role with Ingram back? All of these guys are drafted before Bush, and not a one of them stand out as a sure thing.

Bush looks like a perfect RB2 in the late 4th or early 5th round.

 

[saintfool]

Would you say that Bush a more proven and established NFL commodity versus Thomas? While your statement is true, Bush is the player between the two who established himself whereas we're not even sure Thomas is an NFL calibre RB yet. Fact is, Bush is far more entrenched in MIA than is Thomas who could potentially start losing work to Lamar Miller if Miller flashes and Thomas does not. Now, could Miller emerge? I can't discount that, but I don't think Bush did anything last year or this off-season to indicate he doesn't have a stranglehold on RB1 in MIA.

what does a RB1 look like? the coaches have indicated that they want Reggie moved around. he could be an everydown back but still not get the bulk of the carries.

 

[TheFanatic]

Would you say that Bush a more proven and established NFL commodity versus Thomas? While your statement is true, Bush is the player between the two who established himself whereas we're not even sure Thomas is an NFL calibre RB yet. Fact is, Bush is far more entrenched in MIA than is Thomas who could potentially start losing work to Lamar Miller if Miller flashes and Thomas does not. Now, could Miller emerge? I can't discount that, but I don't think Bush did anything last year or this off-season to indicate he doesn't have a stranglehold on RB1 in MIA.

what does a RB1 look like? the coaches have indicated that they want Reggie moved around. he could be an everydown back but still not get the bulk of the carries.

Right. And with his injury history, nobody goes into the season expecting RB to be a three down back who gets 200+ carries. Due to injuries last year, he was thrust into that role and excelled, but that was not by design. Everyone looks at Lamar Miller as a threat to Thomas and not Bush, but considering Bush's track record with injuries, I would say he's a threat to both.

The only real track record Reggie has is of getting injured. 1 healthy season and 1 season where his numbers were not less than mediocre (like the entire rest of his career), does not give him much of a track record. Right now his track record is of a fluke good season and a bunch of terrible ones. He could do a lot to change that by making it two in a row, but to me, 1 season isn't a track record of anything.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Would you say that Bush a more proven and established NFL commodity versus Thomas? While your statement is true, Bush is the player between the two who established himself whereas we're not even sure Thomas is an NFL calibre RB yet. Fact is, Bush is far more entrenched in MIA than is Thomas who could potentially start losing work to Lamar Miller if Miller flashes and Thomas does not. Now, could Miller emerge? I can't discount that, but I don't think Bush did anything last year or this off-season to indicate he doesn't have a stranglehold on RB1 in MIA.

what does a RB1 look like? the coaches have indicated that they want Reggie moved around. he could be an everydown back but still not get the bulk of the carries.

Right. And with his injury history, nobody goes into the season expecting RB to be a three down back who gets 200+ carries. Due to injuries last year, he was thrust into that role and excelled, but that was not by design. Everyone looks at Lamar Miller as a threat to Thomas and not Bush, but considering Bush's track record with injuries, I would say he's a threat to both.

The only real track record Reggie has is of getting injured. 1 healthy season and 1 season where his numbers were not less than mediocre (like the entire rest of his career), does not give him much of a track record. Right now his track record is of a fluke good season and a bunch of terrible ones. He could do a lot to change that by making it two in a row, but to me, 1 season isn't a track record of anything.

The original comment on my opinion was asking since Bush wasn't an acquisition of the new coaching staff, just like Daniel Thomas...that the detriment to both of their standings in the Dolphins eyes were equal. My response was in regard to that comment and why IMO, Thomas and Bush are different footings related to the new on-field regime.To answer the next question as to what an RB1 looks like, my definition would be the primary weapon in the Dolphins run game. Admittedly, that could take on many forms; 200 carries, 80 receptions or 300 carries, 25 receptions. At the end of the day, for 2012...I think Bush is by far the guy who'll produce out of this backfield. Lots of players emerge as a deviation from the designed path. Just because Bush excelled after the initial plan had to be shelved doesn't mean that the original path will be reverted back to.

Does Bush have an injury history. He does...it's something that is a viable concern. But on a team that has a significant dearth of offensive weaponry, the one game-breaker they do have probably won't be de-emphasized and my bet is that Philbin will try and diversify Bush's game while having him be the prominent force in his 2012 offense. It''' be up to Bush if he can hold up.

 

[saintfool]

Reggie will have lots of opportunities to perform. they're going to play from behind and Reggie is a willing blocker. he'll be a reliable 3rd down target and playing in space. he can thrive in that kind of role. now, the question is this: at what point in the season do they cut his load in favor of miller? they'll be out of the playoffs and want to see what their toy can do in a game. is that week 8, 10, 12, or 14?

 

[kutta]

Would you say that Bush a more proven and established NFL commodity versus Thomas? While your statement is true, Bush is the player between the two who established himself whereas we're not even sure Thomas is an NFL calibre RB yet. Fact is, Bush is far more entrenched in MIA than is Thomas who could potentially start losing work to Lamar Miller if Miller flashes and Thomas does not. Now, could Miller emerge? I can't discount that, but I don't think Bush did anything last year or this off-season to indicate he doesn't have a stranglehold on RB1 in MIA.

what does a RB1 look like? the coaches have indicated that they want Reggie moved around. he could be an everydown back but still not get the bulk of the carries.

Right. And with his injury history, nobody goes into the season expecting RB to be a three down back who gets 200+ carries. Due to injuries last year, he was thrust into that role and excelled, but that was not by design. Everyone looks at Lamar Miller as a threat to Thomas and not Bush, but considering Bush's track record with injuries, I would say he's a threat to both.

The only real track record Reggie has is of getting injured. 1 healthy season and 1 season where his numbers were not less than mediocre (like the entire rest of his career), does not give him much of a track record. Right now his track record is of a fluke good season and a bunch of terrible ones. He could do a lot to change that by making it two in a row, but to me, 1 season isn't a track record of anything.

I'm not a huge Reggie Bush guy, but I think it is unfair to call last year a fluke. He was on a new team, used in a new way, and he excelled. I think that's a long way from a fluke.

 

[fatkid]

In green bay, philbin was part of an offense that used a rbbc and a goal line back. I think Lamar miller can be the other rb, and Thomas can steal the goal line touches. Combining that with poor qb play and no receiving threats, and I don't see a good situation. I don't see 4+ yards a carry against 8 man fronts.

200 carries, 750 yes, 3 tds

60 rec, 450 tds, 3 tds

 

[chickensoup]

In green bay, philbin was part of an offense that used a rbbc and a goal line back. I think Lamar miller can be the other rb, and Thomas can steal the goal line touches. Combining that with poor qb play and no receiving threats, and I don't see a good situation. I don't see 4+ yards a carry against 8 man fronts.200 carries, 750 yes, 3 tds60 rec, 450 tds, 3 tds

This is what i see as well. I think Thomas is going to get more carries than others seem to think. PPR Bush will be serviceable for someone who decides to start their draft with say QB/TE or something crazy like that, but I don't want to rely on Bush whatsoever so I will end up passing on him in almost every draft I am in.

 

[TheFanatic]

Would you say that Bush a more proven and established NFL commodity versus Thomas? While your statement is true, Bush is the player between the two who established himself whereas we're not even sure Thomas is an NFL calibre RB yet. Fact is, Bush is far more entrenched in MIA than is Thomas who could potentially start losing work to Lamar Miller if Miller flashes and Thomas does not. Now, could Miller emerge? I can't discount that, but I don't think Bush did anything last year or this off-season to indicate he doesn't have a stranglehold on RB1 in MIA.

what does a RB1 look like? the coaches have indicated that they want Reggie moved around. he could be an everydown back but still not get the bulk of the carries.

Right. And with his injury history, nobody goes into the season expecting RB to be a three down back who gets 200+ carries. Due to injuries last year, he was thrust into that role and excelled, but that was not by design. Everyone looks at Lamar Miller as a threat to Thomas and not Bush, but considering Bush's track record with injuries, I would say he's a threat to both.

The only real track record Reggie has is of getting injured. 1 healthy season and 1 season where his numbers were not less than mediocre (like the entire rest of his career), does not give him much of a track record. Right now his track record is of a fluke good season and a bunch of terrible ones. He could do a lot to change that by making it two in a row, but to me, 1 season isn't a track record of anything.

I'm not a huge Reggie Bush guy, but I think it is unfair to call last year a fluke. He was on a new team, used in a new way, and he excelled. I think that's a long way from a fluke.

How was he used in a new way? The Saint's tried him as a primary back, as part of a RBBC and Bush never performed all that well and usually got hurt. I can see where he ran on grass rather than turf as a new way he was used, but he was in that same role in the past, just on a different team. In 2007 he had 157 carries in 10 starts and missed 4 games. If he plays in those other 4 games, he's surpass the 216 carries he had in Miami last year.The reason I call it a fluke more than the norm is this:

565

581

404

390

150

1086

Those are his rushing yards for his career per year. If you want to hold onto the one clear outlier as the norm, feel free. It just might put you ahead of the curve if he does it a second year in a row. I will hold back and make sure he can do it again before I put my faith in that track record. But that's just me.

 

[bostonfred]

Bush's detractors are pegging him for 60 catches, 1200 yards and 6 tds. That's 7 fewer points than he had in ppr last year. So he has that going for him, which is nice.

Now let's do a little SWOT analysis and see whether he should be drafted around those numbers, or maybe a little higher or lower.

Strengths: By far the most experienced running back on the roster, bush is in the prime of his career. He was brought in as the big acquisition last year, and he panned out in a big way. It was bush, not moore, who carried the dolphins to their winning ways in the second half of the season.

Weaknesses: While capable of scoring from the red zone, bush is hardly a goal line specialist and is not ideally suited for short yardage. He does not wear down defenses and has a hard time staying healthy when used heavily.

Opportunities: Bush put up solid season totals last year, including a strong and remarkably consistent stretch of rb1 performances in december. He could do even more with improved qb play, a full season as the starter, and the team's stated goal of using him more in the passing game. The qb in miami should be garrard or moore... Bush was best last season with moore, and garrard made a pro bowl throwing to his running back. A healthy season as the starter allows for huge upside - 1086 yards on 216 carries with 43 catches for 296 yards and 7 r/r tds could easily jump to 250 carries for 1250 yards, 60 or 70 catches for 500+, and low double digit tds.

Before you scoff at those numbers, consider this: His 5 yard per carry average is sustainable because he doesn't get short yardage carries, an increase in carries is reasonable since he is now the established rb1, an increase in receptions is all but assured if he stays healthy, an increase in yards per catch is reasonable because he should have improved qb play (compared to last year), and an increase in tds would tend to follow logically.

Threats: Injury is the biggest threat. Thomas was one of the worst rbbc mates in the league last year, with 165 rushes for just 581 yards and 0 tds, and the new coaching staff has nothing invested in him. Those numbers could improve - and to be fair, they are deflated by the types of situations he is used in - but they almost have to improve for thomas to earn the 45% of the carries that he was handed last year. Yes, they drafted a talented rookie who was a borderline first round talent who slipped due to character concerns, but every team thinks they drafted seven borderline first rounders this time of year. Wake me up when he starts to look so good on the field that he is at least the clear cut #2, especially since bush is capable of doing similar things but is far better suited.

To me, we are looking at a guy with top 5 upside, and rb2 downside, with some injury risk, who is available in the mid rounds. This isn't just a value play, bush is an upside play who can win you your league, while still allowing you to get studs at qb, wr and/or te in the early rounds. Strong buy.

 

[bostonfred]

The reason I call it a fluke more than the norm is this:565 - on 155 carries his rookie season, when he also had 88 catches for 742 yards and 8 tds. 88/1307/8 is actually slightly better than the 43/1384/7 he put up last year in miami. This was his only 16 game season prior to 2011.581 - on 157 carries, and 73/417 receiving, with 6 r/r tds, in 12 games. 73/998/6 prorates to 98/1330/8 over 12 games, again, slightly better again than bush did last year on a ppg basis.404 - and 52/440 receivng, with 6 r/r tds, in just 10 games. Again this prorates to 82 catches, 1340 yards, and over 8 tds over a 16 game season. 390 - on 70 carries. Thats over 5.5 yards per carry, and he also caught 47/335 with 8 r/r tds in 14 games. But it was clear that bush was no longer the primary back or strong committee back in new orleans, as pierre thomas had emerged as a running and receiving threat.150 - on 36 carries, and 34/208/1 in 8 games. Bush's final year with the saints, he was an afterthought.1086 - on 216 carries, with 43/296 and 7 r/r td in his first year in miami. Those are his rushing yards for his career per year. If you want to hold onto the one clear outlier as the norm, feel free. It just might put you ahead of the curve if he does it a second year in a row. I will hold back and make sure he can do it again before I put my faith in that track record. But that's just me.

Updated. It looks like 2009/10 were the outliers, as bush has averaged around 5ypc, 80-90 total ypg and about .5 tds/game in his career, and last year was no different.Looking at his career rushing numbers in a vacuum, and ignoring his receptions, will certainly make a receiving back look worse. Especially one who left a committe backfield to become the go to guy on a new team. Now consider that bush got fewer than half his teams 469 rushing attempts last year, and had fewer receptions per game by far than ever before, and that the new coaching staff have stated they want to throw it to him more and use him in different ways, bush has said he is excited about this, the team will rely on him as their marquis offensive skill position player, and the qbs currently vying for the starting job both have helped their rbs put up big total yardage numbers. Look at all the reason for upside. What reason is there for downside? Injury. That's pretty much it.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

For the first time since he came into the league, Bush is on my radar as a guy I'll likely take in a bunch of leagues.

In PPR, he's going in the late 4th as RB20. He finished 12th last year, and any increase in competition for carries seems likely to be offset by a chunk of the huge amount of passing game targets that need a new home with Brandon Marshall's departure.

200 - 860 on the ground, 65 - 450 receiving, 6 total TDs with upside for more if Thomas continues to be just a guy and Miller is a typical mid round rookie.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

In green bay, philbin was part of an offense that used a rbbc and a goal line back. I think Lamar miller can be the other rb, and Thomas can steal the goal line touches. Combining that with poor qb play and no receiving threats, and I don't see a good situation. I don't see 4+ yards a carry against 8 man fronts.200 carries, 750 yes, 3 tds60 rec, 450 tds, 3 tds

This is what i see as well. I think Thomas is going to get more carries than others seem to think. PPR Bush will be serviceable for someone who decides to start their draft with say QB/TE or something crazy like that, but I don't want to rely on Bush whatsoever so I will end up passing on him in almost every draft I am in.

?If you agree with that projection, you should be all over him. Those #s (216 points in PPR) would have made him RB13 last year, and he's going in the late 4th as RB20!ETA I hate math.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

In green bay, philbin was part of an offense that used a rbbc and a goal line back. I think Lamar miller can be the other rb, and Thomas can steal the goal line touches. Combining that with poor qb play and no receiving threats, and I don't see a good situation. I don't see 4+ yards a carry against 8 man fronts.

200 carries, 750 yes, 3 tds

60 rec, 450 tds, 3 tds

This is what i see as well. I think Thomas is going to get more carries than others seem to think. PPR Bush will be serviceable for someone who decides to start their draft with say QB/TE or something crazy like that, but I don't want to rely on Bush whatsoever so I will end up passing on him in almost every draft I am in.

those numbers aren't really so far off what he put up last year in ppr, and put him low end top 20 in my league, or solid rb2.december, however, was probably a bit of a mirage, as 3 of those games were 20+ carries (his only 3 20+ carry games of the year), and he faced 3 of the very worst run defenses in the league.

ffcalc currently has him rb21, which matches up with some ppr idp mocks jeff ratcliffe's been doing.

think he went rb21 in the one I did, but got drafted by MiamiDolphans.

so, I'm not sure what kind of point the quoted posters thought they were making, unless they don't play ppr.

if we roll with all those numbers, he's probably rb2 in the 4th.

 

[zed2283]

I originally had Reggie in a couple of my lineups this week. Everyone was down on him this week on a crappy Dolphins team vs. a good Texans defense, so I sat him in both leagues in favor of M.Turner and DeAngelo . All Reggie did was come in and put up a solid performance with 115 total yards.

Is he picking up where he left off last year? Every week starter at RB2 or flex?

 

[bostonfred]

This was the most predictable stat line of the day yesterday, imo. 14 rushes for 69 yards is right on pace for the 200-240 carries I projected. He's slightly ahead of his ridiculously consistent career 90 ppg pace, in large part because both his receptions (compared to last year) and his rushing (compared to his time with the saints) are up so far (14 rushes, 69 yards, 6 catches, 46 yards, 115 total yards).

We've seen the new orleans philosophy of rotating backs both with and without reggie bush, but people assumed he was only capable of doing what the saints asked him to do.

We've seen philbin use bush as a primary runner, and he is willing to use him on inside and outside runs, and has indicated that he wants bush to catch more, too.

Again, bush is a rock solid rb2, borderline rb1 with some injury risk. If healthy, he should end up between 1400 and 1800 total yards, with 45-85 receptions, and 6-10 tds. After week 1, against a tough houston defense where many teams would have abandoned the run, bush is ahead of that pace. The fact he didn't score a td may mean you can still get him at or around his original price, but a few more weeks of this production and people will want more for him.

 

[bweiser]

and now daniel thomas has a concussion.

 

[tombonneau]

This was the most predictable stat line of the day yesterday, imo. 14 rushes for 69 yards is right on pace for the 200-240 carries I projected. He's slightly ahead of his ridiculously consistent career 90 ppg pace, in large part because both his receptions (compared to last year) and his rushing (compared to his time with the saints) are up so far (14 rushes, 69 yards, 6 catches, 46 yards, 115 total yards). We've seen the new orleans philosophy of rotating backs both with and without reggie bush, but people assumed he was only capable of doing what the saints asked him to do.We've seen philbin use bush as a primary runner, and he is willing to use him on inside and outside runs, and has indicated that he wants bush to catch more, too. Again, bush is a rock solid rb2, borderline rb1 with some injury risk. If healthy, he should end up between 1400 and 1800 total yards, with 45-85 receptions, and 6-10 tds. After week 1, against a tough houston defense where many teams would have abandoned the run, bush is ahead of that pace. The fact he didn't score a td may mean you can still get him at or around his original price, but a few more weeks of this production and people will want more for him.

Yup. Bush was definitely one of those Stat Picks that you (or at least me) didn't feel good about making but you just knew if he was healthy he's a great ppr RB2 simply based on the fact he was going to get a ton of touches. Actually would have liked to have seen Tannenhill check down to him more. Feeling really good about this pick now as he's going to be that team's entire offense. I'll bet he's responsible for 50% of their yards or more when all is said and done.

 

[Kiddnets]

Great stats yesterday but I didnt get a chance to see the game - was it a matter of Bush being great or a lousy defense? Tougher D vs the Jets next week....

 

[zed2283]

Bump for injury updates.

 

[rickyg]

So far I've read 4 sources saying it was not season threatening and Mri tomorrow and 1 source saying it does look bad...

 

[zed2283]

Looked bad to me.