Reggie Bush (1 Viewer)

[AnonymousBob]

I'm not a USC homer. I'm rather indifferent to The Saints and I don't care that Reggie pimps Subway. I just care about players that can help me win championships. I've been a Reggie "hater" the last couple of seasons and I still don't think he's an extrordinary football player. But I'm beginning to think he may represent some value this year. When a player underperforms expectations for so long *everybody* starts hating him and that player starts becoming a sneaky pick.

I think Reggie Bush may have reached that level.

First, let's take a look at his ADP - FBG's has him as the #15 rb and CBS has him ranked as the #20 rb. In 2007 he missed the last 4 games of the season and finished as rb #24. Had he stayed healthy and maintained his ppg he would have finished in the top 12. That may or may not be something you were already aware of but it certainly surprised me.

Let's look at his competition for carries this season...Deuce McAllister? The guy is coming off a couple ACL injuries, multiple knee surgeries over the last couple of seasons and has hit the age of 30. I'm not willing to bet on him being able to play this season or being very effective is he does. He got hurt in the 3rd game last season but up to that point had been averaging 3.8 ypc. Reggie Bush for the season averaged 3.7 ypc...Bush may or may not be the inferior rb but is 0.1 ypc really a huge difference maker in showing a massive talent disparity? Pierre Thomas is the only possible threat but I'm skeptical the Saints will stop using their #2 back to a great extent.

You can certainly point to his rookie season and while it's true he struggled starting off, over his last 10 games he averaged 4.7 ypc...while Deuce averaged 4.3 ypc

He averages 80+ yards and .5 touchdown per game...meaning if he were to play 16 games he'd rank...at rb #15!

He doesn't have an injury history so I don't think you should knock him for last year's PCL tear as it seems he's recovered from that.

Last thing, his schedule doesn't scare me:

TB

@Wash

@Den

SF

Minnesota

Oak

@Car

SD

Bye

@Atlanta

@KC

GB

@TB

Atlanta

@Chicago

@ Detroit

Carolina

He's being drafted at his floor.

 

[burd]

hmm .. interesting things to consider. you didn't mention that this Saints offense has the talent to be among the league's high scoring and high yardage offenses... that should count for something. The Saints have a top-notch QB, an elite WR and picked up an elite TE. If Duece can stay healthy, Bush will be singled up a lot and i can see him doing a lot of damage in the receiving dept as he blows by LBs and overpowers CBs.

 

[AnonymousBob]

hmm .. interesting things to consider. you didn't mention that this Saints offense has the talent to be among the league's high scoring and high yardage offenses... that should count for something. The Saints have a top-notch QB, an elite WR and picked up an elite TE. If Duece can stay healthy, Bush will be singled up a lot and i can see him doing a lot of damage in the receiving dept as he blows by LBs and overpowers CBs.

A point I forgot to mention. It's not like he's on the Bears. This is a team that has shown it's going to be amongst the league leaders in points scored.Brees had the third most pass attempts in the history of the league last season.

 

[valhallan]

I think you're on the right track. There's no reason to suspect he'll play less than a full slate of games and he will most certainly average at least 10-15 carries and 5 catches per outing. With the weapons the Saints have, it's possible teams will stop focusing as much on Reggie and he'll have a bit more space this season. Certainly not a risky pick at RB15.

 

[Jayrod]

He's being drafted at his floor.

LJ, MJD and Bush are all being drafted at their floor right now (if healthy, of course).

 

[Isotopes]

I agree, especially if you get PPR. I could see him cracking in the top 10 this year, which is great value for a late 3rd, early 4th round pick.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I agree, especially if you get PPR. I could see him cracking in the top 10 this year, which is great value for a late 3rd, early 4th round pick.

In what PPR leagues is he sliding to 3/4 ???????

 

[valhallan]

I agree, especially if you get PPR. I could see him cracking in the top 10 this year, which is great value for a late 3rd, early 4th round pick.

He's been #8 and #12 (while missing 4 games) in PPR the last two years.. I think the OP was strictly speaking about traditional scoring.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I agree, especially if you get PPR. I could see him cracking in the top 10 this year, which is great value for a late 3rd, early 4th round pick.

He's been #8 and #12 (while missing 4 games) in PPR the last two years.. I think the OP was strictly speaking about traditional scoring.

Yes I was. I should have clarified that. In PPR leagues I'm well aware he's a monster but my post was in regard to traditional scoring.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

What I love about Reggie Bush this year is Jeremy Shockey. Shockey (IMO) is one of the best blocking TEs in football. If Shockey can stay healthy I think Bush will have a much easier time turning those corners that he loves so much.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

IF he's given the same workload as last year, he is a reasonable value.

I personally don't that will happen again this year, particularly in the 2nd half of the season. Last year, nearly all of his FF value came from a RIDICULOUS amount of opportunity on a good offense. But if he continues to "struggle" with running the ball, he just won't be featured as much. Now they know that Thomas can produce, and they have Deuce back (for as long as he lasts anyway), they won't be forced to go to Bush.

IF Bush turns it around and is actually an effective runner early in the season, he will be a good value going forward. If he doesn't, I think his "floor" is a lot lower than people realize (as in his role primarily becomes ST and 3rd down duties for a good chunk of the season).

 

[packersfan]

Not sure why but I couldn't get the link function to work. Anyway, there's more discussion about Bush and his value in the thread below:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...;hl=Reggie+Bush

 

[Afro Samurai]

I got him 1st pick of the 4th round. In a PPR league this is a steal. Say he rushes for 30 yards and catches 5 passes for another 40 (which would be a pretty typical Reggie performance). In my league that's almost 10 points.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

I got him 1st pick of the 4th round. In a PPR league this is a steal. Say he rushes for 30 yards and catches 5 passes for another 40 (which would be a pretty typical Reggie performance). In my league that's almost 10 points.

Just out of curiosity, how many RBs did you take in rounds 1-3?

 

[Afro Samurai]

I got him 1st pick of the 4th round. In a PPR league this is a steal. Say he rushes for 30 yards and catches 5 passes for another 40 (which would be a pretty typical Reggie performance). In my league that's almost 10 points.

Just out of curiosity, how many RBs did you take in rounds 1-3?

Lynch with the last pick in the 1st, Edge with the last pick in the 3rd

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I got him 1st pick of the 4th round. In a PPR league this is a steal. Say he rushes for 30 yards and catches 5 passes for another 40 (which would be a pretty typical Reggie performance). In my league that's almost 10 points.

This makes no sense to me. How can he possibly slip to the 4th round in a PPR league ?!!?!?!? Unless there are some other non-standards like requiring 2 QBs ...

 

[dirtywaters20]

IF he's given the same workload as last year, he is a reasonable value.

I personally don't that will happen again this year, particularly in the 2nd half of the season. Last year, nearly all of his FF value came from a RIDICULOUS amount of opportunity on a good offense. But if he continues to "struggle" with running the ball, he just won't be featured as much. Now they know that Thomas can produce, and they have Deuce back (for as long as he lasts anyway), they won't be forced to go to Bush.

IF Bush turns it around and is actually an effective runner early in the season, he will be a good value going forward. If he doesn't, I think his "floor" is a lot lower than people realize (as in his role primarily becomes ST and 3rd down duties for a good chunk of the season).

Just curious as to what your basing this statement on? Is this really being discussed in the New Orleans area? I am well aware of his limitations as a pure runner @ this point in time, but he's always struck me as a guy who was valuable from a scheme/matchup standpoint regardless of whether he got the ball.

 

[Afro Samurai]

I got him 1st pick of the 4th round. In a PPR league this is a steal. Say he rushes for 30 yards and catches 5 passes for another 40 (which would be a pretty typical Reggie performance). In my league that's almost 10 points.

This makes no sense to me. How can he possibly slip to the 4th round in a PPR league ?!!?!?!? Unless there are some other non-standards like requiring 2 QBs ...

I guess because people are down on him. Believe me, I was surprised as you are.

 

[valhallan]

I got him 1st pick of the 4th round. In a PPR league this is a steal. Say he rushes for 30 yards and catches 5 passes for another 40 (which would be a pretty typical Reggie performance). In my league that's almost 10 points.

This makes no sense to me. How can he possibly slip to the 4th round in a PPR league ?!!?!?!? Unless there are some other non-standards like requiring 2 QBs ...

I guess because people are down on him. Believe me, I was surprised as you are.

Well if 70 yards and 5 catches is "almost 10 points" in your league, then aren't you talking about .5 PPR? That changes things a bit.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

IF he's given the same workload as last year, he is a reasonable value.

I personally don't that will happen again this year, particularly in the 2nd half of the season. Last year, nearly all of his FF value came from a RIDICULOUS amount of opportunity on a good offense. But if he continues to "struggle" with running the ball, he just won't be featured as much. Now they know that Thomas can produce, and they have Deuce back (for as long as he lasts anyway), they won't be forced to go to Bush.

IF Bush turns it around and is actually an effective runner early in the season, he will be a good value going forward. If he doesn't, I think his "floor" is a lot lower than people realize (as in his role primarily becomes ST and 3rd down duties for a good chunk of the season).

Just curious as to what your basing this statement on? Is this really being discussed in the New Orleans area? I am well aware of his limitations as a pure runner @ this point in time, but he's always struck me as a guy who was valuable from a scheme/matchup standpoint regardless of whether he got the ball.

No discussion I'm aware of. Based purely on observation and his career so far.The thing is, he hasn't been that impressive even as a receiver if you really look at it. He catches the ball a lot, but the vast majority of the time, he doesn't get the yardage the team needs to be effective. People seem to think he breaks a lot of big gainers, but the fact is he HASN'T, at all. The "threat" he represents in everyone's minds never seems to materialize.

Below is a thread I started that goes into much more detail. It is based more on a dynasty perspective, but a lot of it applies to this year as well.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=403938