Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Reggie Wayne Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Pots]

He's not what he used to be, and I think Peyton made him look a lot better than what he would have been in allmost any other team. That said, he should have a slightly better year than last year.

75 catches, 1000 yards, 6 TDs

 

[I was in the pool]

My projections are based on projected floors/ceilings using usage rates and efficiency metrics. I don't like using a specific projection as, let's face it, no one knows exactly what will happen. Here is my range for Wayne in 2012 - my value for him is a combination of the two:

Floor: 67/770/4

Ceiling: 91/1140/8

 

[Shutout]

Seeing as to how his game hasn't been based on speed for a number of seasons and he still is durable, has good hands, and runs good routes, I think he has a very good season now the has Luck throwing to him instead of Painter/Collins, et al.

I can see him be a very stable 3rd WR for fantasy this year. Not the guy he was for so many years but a pleasant surprise that, when you look back at it, he was acquired for peanuts, relatively speaking, compared to his production.

I think you can reasonably expect him to end up as the #17-22 WR.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Who is Andrew Luck going to throw the ball to?

Think about the Colts for a minute. Pierre Garcon? Gone. Dallas Clark? Gone. Joseph Addai? Gone. Jacob Tamme? Gone.

Austin Collie is still around, but if we flash back to 2010, while he was productive, he had difficulty in staying unconcussed. There is a valid argument that says that the Colts QB’s were not capable of getting Collie concussed last year.

In the place of names like Clark, Garcon are Coby Fleener, Dwight Allen, T.Y. Hilton. The Colts are simply going to be EXTREMELY raw in the pass catching department. Except we know that NFL teams at a minimum throw for 3000 yards now. Even the disaster that was last years outfit threw for 3223. And while Andrew Luck’s situation does not appear near as ready-made coming into the NFL as RGIII’s does…there was a reason that Luck was the near unanimous #1 overall selection. He’s pretty good.

Which brings us back to Wayne. Collie is now almost by default the Colts #2 WR. But does that mean he’s the #2 WR playing out of the slot? Or does a guy like Blair White assume that role…or someone else? There just seems to be a lot of flux at WR for the Colts behind Wayne which would make it seem logical that Wayne is entrenched as the primary target for Luck right out of the gate.

So…Wayne is the #1 WR for a team that most likely will struggle to secure leads. The running game for the Colts is suspect in that Donald Brown right now appears to be RB1. Brown did show flashes in 2011 for perhaps the first time in his career, but before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s assume the Colts still will be a bottom half of the NFL rushing outfit as there really is no RB2 that can share the load here.

As I see it, the Colts options on offense are simply limited. The entire offense won’t run through Wayne for sure, but he’s as sure to maintain his 8 targets/game level he hit in 2011 and I could easily see his targets being closer to 9-10/game. Whether he can convert those targets into production...that’s obviously the million dollar question? But with the atrocious QB play Wayne was subjected to in 2011, his catch rate was a relatively decent 57% and his YPR stayed constant. Now, 2009-2010 saw his catch rate at 65.5% so it was an obvious decline, but was that on Wayne? I’d give him the benefit of the doubt here.

He’s going to be 34 this season, so it makes sense to wonder if his skills are eroding. 2011 simply didn’t offer enough G2 on Wayne to truly decipher this. However, in 2010, Wayne still ranked amongst the games elite WR’s (111/1355/6). He can’t be that guy anymore because that guy needed Peyton Manning. But I think Andrew Luck is going to need Reggie Wayne and I suspect he’ll make significant use of him. And for the price of a 6th/7th round selection…Wayne appears awfully undervalued with many writing him off a bit too soon. Guys that are going ahead of Wayne are named Robert Meachem, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker. Certainly in some cases the upside is higher or at least appears that way. But people were writing off Steve Smith last year too in large part because of a suspected steep learning curve for his rookie QB. A year later and Smith is a bonafide WR1 again. I wouldn't predict this for Wayne, but there is under the radar upside here as well.

Prediction: 86 Receptions, 1039 Receiving Yards; 7 TD’s

 

[FF Ninja]

The veteran starters on the Colts all appear to be good value. Wayne at WR30, Collie at WR59, and Brown at RB38 all have limited upside as this isn't going to be a 40-50 TD offense, but to expect 3400 passing yards and 1500 rushing yards sounds reasonable considering they did about that last year in a disasterous season.

If Wayne finished WR29 last year with Collins, Painter, etc. then he should be a safe pick this year with Luck. Not an exciting pick, but if you need a WR3 in the 7th round and want to play it safe then he's your guy. His 132 targets last year should be easy to replicate. His career catch/target % is 66.8% while last year he was at 56.8% which is not surprising as this metric has a high correlation with the QB completion %. In Luck's rookie year, I'm not going to expect anything amazing, so I think that a repeat of 75 receptions is a pretty solid assumption, with a possible bump up to 80. I expect his ypr to be in the 12.5-13.0 range. I am projecting a conservative 6 TD, but I expect at least 18 TD from Luck and they've got to go to someone. I think Fleener is overrated, so I expect the majority to go to the WRs.

75/950/6

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Peyton Manning threw for 3733 and 26 TDs his rookie year. I think we can expect some similar production from Luck this year. I don't think the Colts will baby him too much and dumb down the offense to be run heavy, like the Falcons did for Ryan, the Jets did for Sanchez, or the Bengals did for Dalton. The Colts don't have the defense to do that, in fact they should be way behind in many of their games. So if Luck puts up close to 4000 and 26, then Wayne will be the beneficiary. I see him having a few huge games where the Colts play catch up, and his year end totals finish in the neighborhood of:

85 catches, 1150 yards, 8 TDs

 

[Chase Stuart]

Wayne is definitely one of those guys that you'll bump up if you actually do projections for. If he and Luck stay healthy, I'd be very surprised if he didn't crack the 1,000 yard mark. Honestly, a WR1 season is not out of the question, so I think he's got great upside. The Colts brought in Bruce Arians -- they're going to throw, and throw often. Wayne's a clear WR1 in an offense that should get in around the 4,000 yard mark. He's not sexy, but he's relatively safe with great upside.