Reggie Wayne (1 Viewer)

[Bayhawks]

I don't want to give away subscriber info, but FBG has Wayne ranked really low.

I know there are serious questions about Manning, but they have him projected for (IMO) way too few receptions and yards. Look at what Fitzgerald did last year with 2nd-string Pop Warner QBs throwing him the ball for the entire season. Even if Manning misses a month, Wayne will still have him at QB for 11-12 games?

Does everyone think Wayne will drop out of the top-15 WRs this year?

 

[ponchsox]

He may be finish on the outside looking in this year. Manning's health, Wayne's age, and the emergence of Collie and Garcon all factor in to this.

 

[Ian F]

I buy into this - Wayne appears very much in decline but his FPT have been propped up based on volume

Manning threw the ball 680 times last year and Reggie got 170+ targets. That is not going to happen again a) IND will pass less and b) other players will be around to spread the targets

If you look at his YPA (ie yards per target) it has gone down steadily from his prime of 9.6 to 8.7 then 8.5 then 7.7.

If you average his TDs per season its 8 (v hard to predict yoy)

So net net if his targets drop to a more reasonable 130-140 you are looking at just over 1000yds on 80ish grabs and 8 scores or pretty much WR15. Any further decline from last year ito of YPA or historic TD avg and you have him outside the top 15!

 

[Bayhawks]

I buy into this - Wayne appears very much in decline but his FPT have been propped up based on volume

Manning threw the ball 680 times last year and Reggie got 170+ targets. That is not going to happen again a) IND will pass less and b) other players will be around to spread the targets

If you look at his YPA (ie yards per target) it has gone down steadily from his prime of 9.6 to 8.7 then 8.5 then 7.7.

If you average his TDs per season its 8 (v hard to predict yoy)

So net net if his targets drop to a more reasonable 130-140 you are looking at just over 1000yds on 80ish grabs and 8 scores or pretty much WR15. Any further decline from last year ito of YPA or historic TD avg and you have him outside the top 15!

Well, then shouldn't the bolded (volume of targets) bode well for him?If Painter is the QB, he's likely to lock onto his main WR (as he seemed to do last game). When Manning comes back, I don't see him suddenly deciding not to throw to Wayne, especially if Garcon continues to drop balls as he has in the past.

I would be surprised if Wayne is under 1100 yards this year, much less under 1,000, as FBG projects.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

I buy into this - Wayne appears very much in decline but his FPT have been propped up based on volume

Manning threw the ball 680 times last year and Reggie got 170+ targets. That is not going to happen again a) IND will pass less and b) other players will be around to spread the targets

If you look at his YPA (ie yards per target) it has gone down steadily from his prime of 9.6 to 8.7 then 8.5 then 7.7.

If you average his TDs per season its 8 (v hard to predict yoy)

So net net if his targets drop to a more reasonable 130-140 you are looking at just over 1000yds on 80ish grabs and 8 scores or pretty much WR15. Any further decline from last year ito of YPA or historic TD avg and you have him outside the top 15!

Why will Indy pass less? Defense isn't any better and given that teams are probably more likely to get a lead, Indy will be playing from behind. And the "other players" theory doesn't really hold water either. The team is the same. In fact, solid "other" players should lift double coverage off of Wayne.

He's getting older but he's not dead yet.

 

[Late225]

he's a lock for top 10 - probably finishes top 5 again

 

[ponchsox]

he's a lock for top 10 - probably finishes top 5 again

Ahead of who? AJ, Calvin, White, Fitz, and VJax? Not sure about that one.

 

[runner06]

Vincent Jackson is a bit overrated. His top two receptions seasons are 68 and 59 receptions while his top two touchdown seasons are 9 and 7. He's talented but Wayne's track record is superior. Wayne is probably one of the safer bets to finish in the 3 to 10 range.

 

[Late225]

he's a lock for top 10 - probably finishes top 5 again

Ahead of who? AJ, Calvin, White, Fitz, and VJax? Not sure about that one.

Yes I do. Quite easily. (sidenote - every one of my leagues are PPR)Last season, he outscored all of those players except Roddy White (LLoyd also outscored him as Wayne was #3). If Wayne's production drops 20%, he still catches 90 balls - 12 more than CJ's career high.

 

[Sullie]

In my league of 12 that consists of pretty well seasoned guys openly talking about using the Draft Dominator, etc., and in the city of Indianapolis - Reggie Wayne was the 10th WR taken in the draft (3rd round) in the middle of a big WR run. Personally, I think Reggie is a top 10-13 WR and I think that because Indy didn't really address the weak running game and because of the soft defense you know the Colts are going to throw a lot. On the flip side, Wayne is getting older, he is double teamed a lot and with Manning missing all of camp and pre-season and possibly a game or two (who knows really at this point?) Wayne's numbers may be down a little bit if Manning is rusty and not at 100%. Still, I agree with OP, Wayne seems undervalued by the FBG's.

 

[TwinTurbo]

In PPR, Wayne is still gold. Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. I would rank him #6 in PPR after AJ, CJ, Fitz, Roddy, and Nicks.

Manning will return sooner rather than later and Indy will still need to pass it a ton this year. Indy D and run game are both below average.

 

[Sweetness_34]

he's a lock for top 10 - probably finishes top 5 again

Ahead of who? AJ, Calvin, White, Fitz, and VJax? Not sure about that one.

What has VJax ever done? Call me when he catches 80 catches in a year, which he has never done BTW. I am enjoying every league in which some fool picks this guy up in the 2nd or 3rd round, letting me pick up Reggie Wayne. I would rather have Colston than that joker VJax

 

[DoubleG]

He may be finish on the outside looking in this year. Manning's health, Wayne's age, and the emergence of Collie and Garcon all factor in to this.

Collie has become an injury (or concussion) waiting to happen. Garcon's "emergence" already seems to be plateuing a bit. Garcon has bad hands and as Peyton's deep-ball skills diminish (which I think is more the issue of Manning's "decline" - and his neck issue), that only hurts Garcon's productivity all the more. The point here is that guys like Wayne, Clark and Collie are better route runners than Garcon and Garcon's strength is deep speed - all of which work against Garcon when your QB seems to be losing his deep pass ability.I sat in awe this weekend as I watched one of the stuanchest Garcon aplogists I know trade him away in a dynasty league...for Steve Smith (CAR) and a late draft pick in 2012. Garcon is becoming Bernard Berrian - a guy who showed some ability that many thought would automatically "progress" from a WR3 to a WR2 - but he just stayed a WR3 (if that).

In 2010 Garcon and backup TE Jacob Tamme both ended the season with 72 receptions...except that Tamme played in 4 less games and had 24 less targets - remember, that's with Collie and Clark missing significant time. The point being, Garcon is targetted as much as others and when he is, his catch % is bad (58% when Manning is throwing the ball isn't good). Incidentally that poor catch% is also part of the reason he doesn't (won't ?) see more targets. Either Manning doesn't trust him, or doesn't feel he can get him the ball deep. Either way it means less targets for Garcon and more for Wayne, Clark and Collie.

I, for one, think Wayne has another year or two of 1000+. He may not crack top 5, but 10 is probable and top 15 is a virutal lock this season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Reggie Wayne is one of those guys that will be written off by fantasy experts each offseason (it started about two to three years ago), until they're eventually right. Then they'll say "we told you so".

 

[Tau837]

he's a lock for top 10 - probably finishes top 5 again

Ahead of who? AJ, Calvin, White, Fitz, and VJax? Not sure about that one.

What has VJax ever done? Call me when he catches 80 catches in a year, which he has never done BTW. I am enjoying every league in which some fool picks this guy up in the 2nd or 3rd round, letting me pick up Reggie Wayne. I would rather have Colston than that joker VJax

VJax hasn't needed 80 catches to finish as WR12 and WR10 in 2008 and 2009, respectively. And he outscored Colston in both of those seasons. Not that that has anything to do with this thread...

 

[Reepicheep]

Reggie Wayne is one of those guys that will be written off by fantasy experts each offseason (it started about two to three years ago), until they're eventually right. Then they'll say "we told you so".

If lots of experts have been writing him off, nobody has been listening, as Wayne was being drafted as a top 5 WR from 2007-2010. In that timeframe he finished 4th,14th,6th, and 7th. Now he's turning 33 in Nov and entering his 11th season, Manning's health is a question mark, and everyone still has nightmares about the Great Marvin Harrison Debacle of '07, when Harrison was entering his 12th season. So Wayne is going 10th/11th, it's probably fair to say he's being drafted close to his floor, but I can't blame anyone for taking the stance that it's better to get out a year early than a year late.

 

[rjv]

he's a lock for top 10 - probably finishes top 5 again

 

[NeverEnough]

Wayne finishes top 10. I am thrilled I got him in the 5th round as my WR2!

 

[Shutout]

In PPR, Wayne is still gold. Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. I would rank him #6 in PPR after AJ, CJ, Fitz, Roddy, and Nicks. Manning will return sooner rather than later and Indy will still need to pass it a ton this year. Indy D and run game are both below average.

Sums it up.Its kind of funny how some "logic" things run in fantasy circles. If a guy has one good year and he is young, people will proclaim him as the next big thing. If a guy has 8 straight years of 80+ catches, 1000+ yards, and never misses a game BUT he is over 30, then he is dead...Its really just he isn't the hot new topic anymore and he gets overlooked and to be honest, even when he was 28-29, I can remember arguing for Wayne despite the fact that he had had 3 or 4 good years at the time. Just generally overlooked.But I am more than happy to take him after the first 5 or so and feel like he will justify that spot.

 

[runner06]

he's a lock for top 10 - probably finishes top 5 again

Really? He's finished in the top 4 WRs in PPR four out of the last five seasons. The year he missed he still finished 13th.

 

[Sweet Love]

In my league of 12 that consists of pretty well seasoned guys openly talking about using the Draft Dominator, etc., and in the city of Indianapolis - Reggie Wayne was the 10th WR taken in the draft (3rd round) in the middle of a big WR run. Personally, I think Reggie is a top 10-13 WR and I think that because Indy didn't really address the weak running game and because of the soft defense you know the Colts are going to throw a lot. On the flip side, Wayne is getting older, he is double teamed a lot and with Manning missing all of camp and pre-season and possibly a game or two (who knows really at this point?) Wayne's numbers may be down a little bit if Manning is rusty and not at 100%. Still, I agree with OP, Wayne seems undervalued by the FBG's.

I like the insight you bring to your post as a local, yet would take it with a grain of salt. The reason I do this is because I happen to be in an NC (local) FBG keep 3 league and have found a similar scenario with Steve Smith. Usually, the local "darling" of the NFL team goes a round or two ahead of where he should go, and I have found that the "wily vet" seems to almost bore the locals, and is put to bed too early. You try to get James Stewart in my league and he will cost you an arm and a leg (this for a guy who has accomplished as much as Steve Slaton thus far in his career), yet when I took Steve Smith as my WR2, in what equals the 7th round, I was almost laughed off the internet. I am not knocking you or your opinion, but sometimes when you are too close, it is almost a detriment versus a pro.

 

[skillz]

He dropped quite a bit in my draft yesterday. 12 team league, no PPR- he went 4.5 all these WR's went ahead of him:

AJ

Calvin

Nicks

White

Fitz

V-Jax

Mike Williams

Dez Bryant

Desean Jackson

Wallace

Jennings

Bowe

Everyone was afraid of father time catching up and Manning being hurt.