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I couldn't disagree more. You can really destroy your whole draft and team if you swing for the fences early. And I wouldn't say Grant's ADP is quite a bit higher than Charles (higher, yeah, but it's close). You have people on this board that would draft Charles before Grant.
The same people that would take Charles over Grant, took Forte and CJ over Steven Jackson. One hit a home run, the other struck out. But to say that the safe rout leads to any more success than the risky, seems silly to me. And honestly, it seems the winners are the guys that snag the Jamaal Charles and Austin Miles of any given season.
Yes, but in the later rounds....not in rounds 1 to 3.
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Grant: 4.05Charles 6.0710 team PPR last saturday. People taking Charles in the 2nd are pushing their luck. Charles mid 3rd and beyond is good. Getting charles after the 4th is a steal IMO. MUCH higher chance at 1000 yards and a half dozen (or more) TDs than most folks you're getting in that slot.
In 2008 when everyone was at Deangelo Williams' fantasy funeral, I picked him as my RB2 and rode him to a title. Of course I have missed in other years, but I would rather do that every time than picking Ryan Grant/Santana Moss. In one league last year I took Chris Johnson as my RB1 and Ray Rice as my RB3 and that worked out pretty well...http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=544263&hl=MA posted an ADP list in this thread. It has Grant at #27 overall and Charles at #26 overall. I think that was based on 47 drafts or so.
Exactly, and I'm sure you picked him in a later round.In 2008 when everyone was at Deangelo Williams' fantasy funeral, I picked him as my RB2 and rode him to a title. Of course I have missed in other years, but I would rather do that every time than picking Ryan Grant/Santana Moss. In one league last year I took Chris Johnson as my RB1 and Ray Rice as my RB3 and that worked out pretty well...
Who? Johnson was 16th overall I think.Exactly, and I'm sure you picked him in a later round.
No, silly, the guy you "rode to the title"......Williams.Who? Johnson was 16th overall I think.Exactly, and I'm sure you picked him in a later round.
It was a keeper league and he was unprotected - 2nd round.No, silly, the guy you "rode to the title"......Williams.Who? Johnson was 16th overall I think.Exactly, and I'm sure you picked him in a later round.
I would draft Charles before Grant in a heartbeat. I had Grant last year and think he is overvalued this year. I also like Charles to finish top 10 easily barring injury on the strength of his ridiculous talent.So tell me why I should take Grant again, when I have him projected to be several notches behind Charles? I'll bet that Charles is on a lot more championship teams than Grant is.
You pick them where you can get them. There is no round that is too valuable to be immune to risky picks. If it takes a 2nd to draft Charles, that is where you draft him. You can't want and say, "I will take a risk on him later" because he won't be there. IF he plays the way he did over the 2nd half of the season, he is a steal even in the 2nd. If he doesn't, he could be a bust. But that is a risk you take. If you aren't one to take that risk, I respect that. But that is more of a personality thing than it is a FF strategy thing. I have yet to see any facts support the argument that safer picks win leagues more often than risky picks.Exactly, and I'm sure you picked him in a later round.In 2008 when everyone was at Deangelo Williams' fantasy funeral, I picked him as my RB2 and rode him to a title. Of course I have missed in other years, but I would rather do that every time than picking Ryan Grant/Santana Moss. In one league last year I took Chris Johnson as my RB1 and Ray Rice as my RB3 and that worked out pretty well...
If you have to wait and he's not there for you, oh well. Let him hurt someone else's team. Yeah, you'll hit your pick sometimes but most of the time, your pick will be the wrong pick. I think you can look at EV (expected value) when looking at risk/reward in fantasy football.Think of it like poker. It's like chasing a flush when you are suited and the flop has two of your suits. You might hit your hand on the turn or the river, but you'll be -EV over time.And FWIW, Charles and Grant were just examples. I have nothing against Charles. I just think he's a high risk/reward player this year and he's going too early. Think about the concept and not the specific players.You pick them where you can get them. There is no round that is too valuable to be immune to risky picks. If it takes a 2nd to draft Charles, that is where you draft him. You can't want and say, "I will take a risk on him later" because he won't be there. IF he plays the way he did over the 2nd half of the season, he is a steal even in the 2nd. If he doesn't, he could be a bust. But that is a risk you take. If you aren't one to take that risk, I respect that. But that is more of a personality thing than it is a FF strategy thing. I have yet to see any facts support the argument that safer picks win leagues more often than risky picks.Exactly, and I'm sure you picked him in a later round.
What, people would really draft Charles before Grant?!?!Form a committee, we must do something before it's too late!!!Wait, so what if someone prefers the upside of Charles to the consistency of Grant?I really disagree with the notion that someone would "destroy your whole draft and team" by missing on a high risk/high reward pick or two fairly early in the draft. I don't know about everyone else, but I expect that some of my later picks will pan out. So I draft Charles late in rd 2 and he bombs, but I drafted Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty late, and one of them hits. I also make trades, work the waiver wire, etc. Point being, hope isn't lost if you miss on a player or two. You can actually improve your team after the draft in most leagues.
We can use any example you want. My point is this: You saying that you are going to "flop more often than not" means nothing without numbers to suggest that. The term "risky" is subjective and really depends on your individual definition, as well as your projections. Charles is a good example to use. So I will continue to do so.If your only reasoning for taking Grant over Charles is that you think Grant is the safer pick, fine. But say that and acknowledge that as your opinion or gut feeling - because that is all it is. Again, unless you have something to back your gut feeling or personal stance on risk, this conversation is pointless. All you are saying is that you prefer not to take risks in the early rounds, nothing more. Poker is a poor example, as there is a very clear and definable system of odds to follow in poker. Every single play can be analyzed to a point that clearly defines the "right" and "wrong" play. FF and poker have very little in common in that reguard.If you have to wait and he's not there for you, oh well. Let him hurt someone else's team. Yeah, you'll hit your pick sometimes but most of the time, your pick will be the wrong pick. I think you can look at EV (expected value) when looking at risk/reward in fantasy football.Think of it like poker. It's like chasing a flush when you are suited and the flop has two of your suits. You might hit your hand on the turn or the river, but you'll be -EV over time.And FWIW, Charles and Grant were just examples. I have nothing against Charles. I just think he's a high risk/reward player this year and he's going too early. Think about the concept and not the specific players.You pick them where you can get them. There is no round that is too valuable to be immune to risky picks. If it takes a 2nd to draft Charles, that is where you draft him. You can't want and say, "I will take a risk on him later" because he won't be there. IF he plays the way he did over the 2nd half of the season, he is a steal even in the 2nd. If he doesn't, he could be a bust. But that is a risk you take. If you aren't one to take that risk, I respect that. But that is more of a personality thing than it is a FF strategy thing. I have yet to see any facts support the argument that safer picks win leagues more often than risky picks.Exactly, and I'm sure you picked him in a later round.In 2008 when everyone was at Deangelo Williams' fantasy funeral, I picked him as my RB2 and rode him to a title. Of course I have missed in other years, but I would rather do that every time than picking Ryan Grant/Santana Moss. In one league last year I took Chris Johnson as my RB1 and Ray Rice as my RB3 and that worked out pretty well...
Thomas Jones.
Thank you.
I understand what you're saying, but I think the problem with your thinking is that hitting on the homeruns isn't really random. People who take Charles over Grant, using your example, do so because through their analysis they believe Charles has a better EV than Grant. You think otherwise. It's not like people are going, I'm going to swing for the fences here and take Charles over Grant. They believe Charles is going to have a better season. With Grant theres a good chance you're going to get 1200/8, but almost no chance you're going to get the 1500/12 many think Charles is capable of. So while some risks may fail, others will surely succeed and the teams that do succeed, will have an advantage of yours. That's not to say that you shouldn't take the less-risky players, you need a mix. For example, a team starting Grant, H. Ward and D. Mason probably isn't going to win you a championship. Substitute Charles for Grant and now you've got a team much more likely (imo) to win a championship. It's the breakout players that win championships (ADP's rookie year, CJIII, M. Austin, S. Rice) and that's what most of us are here to do, win the championship, not just make the playoffs.
I think you take Jahvid best in the 2nd round....:championship:
Seriously? That's your response?
You can say that about anyone really. There is 0% chance that Grant finished top 5. I would bet mass amounts of money that I don't have, that Grant won't be top 5. Charles is cleary the "safer" bet, if you are asking who is more likely to be top 5. But, back on point...Drafting Grant in the 3rd is not going to win your league for you. Drafting Charles in the 3rd could. If you don't like the risk, fine. But unless you have stats to back your opinion, that is all it is. You don't like to take risks in the first 3,4 rounds. That is really all you needed to say, because that is all you are saying.
Charles isn't even listed as the starter right now, won't get goal line carries and you're saying he's safer than Grant?
If you want to think of it like poker, think of it as eight other guys at the table are playing a flush draw and you're sitting on two pair. Half of the guys won't hit their flush, but the other half will, and they will cream you.Those risky players are going to get drafted where their ADP is, whether it's you who takes them or someone else. Some of them are going to bust, but one thing you can be sure of is that some of them are going to hit it big, and you're going to have a very very difficult time keeping up with those teams that do.You can either have a 50% chance of being the best team in the league, or a 90% chance of being mediocre.This came up years ago. At that time yahoo (or some FF site) had a program where you could look at percentage of championship teams that had a certain player (for instance, xx% of championship teams had this player on their roster). The high risk guys who paid off bigtime accounted for a huge percentage, whereas the guys who came at a high ADP but had low upside had low percentages. This makes sense, because they're starting at a big disadvantage to half the league.If you passed on Chris Johnson for a "safe" pick last year, you're starting out 1000 yards and 8 TDs behind the guy who got Chris Johnson. What are the chances you're going to make that up with your "risky" 12th round pick? Risky 12th rounders are 12th rounders because they have an extremely low chance of working out. If you're counting on making up stud production with a late pick then you're banking on a lottery ticket.Picking safe early on may make you less likely to finish last, but it will also make you less likely to finish first, and that's what this game is all about.
What else can he say? His notion that risks shouldn't be taken in the early rounds is clearly rubish - personal stance on risk at best. The thread title should have been, "I don't like to draft players that I consider risky early on." There was no need for examples or further explanation without stats or charted history showing that players matching his definition of risky, didn't pan out.
Yes, that is my response. I will add more in bold just for you.
A safer bet to finish a top 5 fantasy back, yes. Over the last 1/2 fo the season, he was top 2. Grant has never done that. I personally don't think he is physically talented enough to do that. He is an average, to below average NFL running back. He just happens to be starting.Charles isn't listed as the starter, but he will get the most carries. He finished top 2 over a 9 game period, without those goal line carries.
Bingo.In fact, what exactly constitutes "consistency"? Many top players are deemed "inconsistent" by statistics but it's because they can produce that HUGE game, one that can carry you to a win. In fact, just because a player was "consistent" last year, doesn't mean that he will be "consistent" this year. The NFL has too many variables for you to predict that with a high level of certainty.You're better off taking the best player available, given your lineup constraints, each time you're up. The goal is to grab players that will outperform their ADP. At his current ADP, Ryan Grant doesn't offer much upside.Making too many safe picks a recipe for finishing in the middle of the pack.You can bust on a 1st round pick and win the title.
Maybe, but his chances of keeping people from that championship game and putting them in the toilet bowl game are greater than Grant's.
You're not getting it. No list of players by either of us is going to prove anything. Obviously, no one player can actually win or lose somewhere their league. There are plenty of times that people have won their league in spite of an early bust, and plenty of people that have lost in spite of an early pick that hit it big.What it can do however, is help you a lot or hurt you a lot, and for that I will present you with this.Exit 1 said:
You can't play the hindsight card. Rudi was considered a "safe" pick only in 2006 (when he played well), and in 2007 (when he busted). In 2004 and 2005 Rudi was considered a risky pick because he was largely an unknown (in 2004) or thought to be a 1-year wonder (in 2005). You can't go back and act like people who took the "safe" pick from 2004-2006 got good, safe production out of him because Rudi wasn't considered one of the "safe" picks until 2006. He was then considered a safe pick again (for only the second time) in 2007, when he flopped.Exit 1 said:
According to Exit1, since in a league last year, I took LT in round 1 and Bowe in round 3, both complete busts, that I should have been toast.Wrong.I easily won that league.....helps that I got Ray Rice, Santonio Holmes, Owen Daniels, Jamaal Charles, Steve Smith NYG and Vernon Davis between rounds 5-18. I missed on some in that range as well, but I nailed a lot of later picks. Sure, I was fortunate that that I nailed these picks, but if you do your homework and maximize value with every pick you make, there will be times that you hit big and win your league.Agree 100% with FreeBagel's first point. I have won 4 titles in one league. 2 of them I had a 1st round bust, and 2 of them I didn't. Many players won their league last year with Chris Johnson as their 1st round or 2nd round pick. It can happen. Many players won their league in 2007 taking a chance on Randy Moss in the 3rd round when he went to NE and had 2 horrible seasons with OAK....many weren't touching him with a ten foot pole at that ADP. In that year, I could have took Moss....I made a "safer pick" with Anquan Boldin, and it cost me the league title.FreeBaGeL said:
I see where you are coming from. But I don't know that it is an exact science either. Bottom line, do your projections and draft according to those. If you project Player A to get 1,000/10, draft him over player B, who you project to get 800/8. After all, you can only draft at the spots you have. These risky players usually only seemed to have been risky after the fact. Meaning that CJ was no more risky than Matt Forte, Beanie Wells, and so on. Trying to balance out "risky" players with "safe" picks, isn't going to get you anywhere, IMO. Miles Austin wasn't a risky pick last season. He was going to give you nothing. Same with Sidney Rice and Jamaal Charles last year.FreeBaGeL said:
I bolded the part here that makes the theory that you shouldn't make "risky" picks in the early rounds flawed. In your HW you're already accounting for the risk. That's why Charles is going in the 3rd round range instead of the first round where his stats over the last 8 games implies he should go. Your HW is also accounting for the fact that R. Grant probably won't be a top 5 RB, thus why you'd never draft him in the first round.
Yeah, that's what it's all about. I can hit or I can miss. I'd rather have a championship caliber team every few years than an above average team every year.I don't actively seek out risky players. I just think avoiding them just because there's any risk, even in the early rounds, will keep your teams from being exceptional.
