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Rep. Frank to step down at end of term (1 Viewer)

Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True but Cuse with the zone is more susceptible. 5th highest in 3PA/FGA and 4th highest in opponents points from 3.
This. Ennis/Cooney is not MCW/Triche at the top of the zone. They get an A for effort, but they just dont have the physical gifts that MCW had/has.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.
I disagree with that. Teams that give us problems play tough, physical D, especially up top and pass well in the interior. We want teams to be chucking it from deep. Boeheim dares them to do it.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.
I disagree with that. Teams that give us problems play tough, physical D, especially up top and pass well in the interior. We want teams to be chucking it from deep. Boeheim dares them to do it.
Agree...that is JB's strategy and it works incredibly well. It just has less chance to work than usual because Ennis/Cooney arent as strong out top as what we had last year and while Grant has the physical gifts, he still finds himself out of place too frequently.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.
I disagree with that. Teams that give us problems play tough, physical D, especially up top and pass well in the interior. We want teams to be chucking it from deep. Boeheim dares them to do it.
After you said this to me yesterday, I went back and looked at the box scores of the last several games when Cuse got bounced out of the tournament. To my surprise, you are correct. None of the winning teams had a particularly noteworthy game from beyond the arc.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.
I disagree with that. Teams that give us problems play tough, physical D, especially up top and pass well in the interior. We want teams to be chucking it from deep. Boeheim dares them to do it.
Agree...that is JB's strategy and it works incredibly well. It just has less chance to work than usual because Ennis/Cooney arent as strong out top as what we had last year and while Grant has the physical gifts, he still finds himself out of place too frequently.
No doubt the zone isn't as good as last season but it's been great this year when it mattered. Ennis-Cooney are 1-2 in the conference in steals (I think). I'd still trade last year's guards for this year's guys because these guys can shoot. MCW and Triche couldn't throw it into the ocean most games.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.
I disagree with that. Teams that give us problems play tough, physical D, especially up top and pass well in the interior. We want teams to be chucking it from deep. Boeheim dares them to do it.
After you said this to me yesterday, I went back and looked at the box scores of the last several games when Cuse got bounced out of the tournament. To my surprise, you are correct. None of the winning teams had a particularly noteworthy game from beyond the arc.
The only game i can remember that mattered where we got beat because a team made a ton of 3's was Cincinnati in the BE tourney a few years ago. They just couldn't miss early in that game. We still almost overcame that and beat them. I'm sure there have been other games but that's the only time I can remember losing because someone made a bunch of 3's. Duke made a bunch a few weeks ago but a lot of it was due to their passing. They worked the ball inside out as good as anyone we've ever played. They had more deep open looks in that game than any game I can remember. There's a bunch a great shooting teams we could play in the tournament but none are going to pass the ball like Duke did. The shots those teams take will be contested especially after Boeheim extends the zone. I'd much rather play one of those great shooting teams (Creighton, Wichita) than I would Pittsburgh. Keep Pittsburgh the hell out of the east.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.
I disagree with that. Teams that give us problems play tough, physical D, especially up top and pass well in the interior. We want teams to be chucking it from deep. Boeheim dares them to do it.
You certainly know better than I. But I think we both agree that Syracuse's strategy is to get teams to chuck from deep all game. It's the reason I put a boatload on Cuse vs. Villanova because I knew they'd fall into the trap and just chuck and chuck and chuck and I was counting on them to miss a bunch. What I'm saying is that a team could do exactly what Boehiem wants but if they start hitting everything Syracuse is in trouble.

The zone by definition and your admission wants teams to shoot a bunch of threes, mostly contested. Their exists a chance that an inferior team just hits everything. It's happened to teams before.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.
I disagree with that. Teams that give us problems play tough, physical D, especially up top and pass well in the interior. We want teams to be chucking it from deep. Boeheim dares them to do it.
After you said this to me yesterday, I went back and looked at the box scores of the last several games when Cuse got bounced out of the tournament. To my surprise, you are correct. None of the winning teams had a particularly noteworthy game from beyond the arc.
The only game i can remember that mattered where we got beat because a team made a ton of 3's was Cincinnati in the BE tourney a few years ago. They just couldn't miss early in that game. We still almost overcame that and beat them. I'm sure there have been other games but that's the only time I can remember losing because someone made a bunch of 3's. Duke made a bunch a few weeks ago but a lot of it was due to their passing. They worked the ball inside out as good as anyone we've ever played. They had more deep open looks in that game than any game I can remember. There's a bunch a great shooting teams we could play in the tournament but none are going to pass the ball like Duke did. The shots those teams take will be contested especially after Boeheim extends the zone. I'd much rather play one of those great shooting teams (Creighton, Wichita) than I would Pittsburgh. Keep Pittsburgh the hell out of the east.
Like I said, you certainly know better than I. Looking at the numbers and watching a handful of games doesn't tell the whole story especially compared to somebody who watches every game.

 
Hard to argue against Syracuse this year. ...They're vulnerable to a hot team
Never understood this argument. Who isn't vulnerable to a hot shooting team?
True. With Syracuse it's a bit different because they allow teams to shoot far more 3s than almost anybody else in the country. They defend them well, but a hot shooting team from 3 can do more damage against Syracuse than other teams simply by volume. I don't necessarily think it will happen or anything, but if Syracuse gets bounced before the Final Four I'd be willing to bet it's against a team that hits a ridiculous amount of 3s in that game.
I disagree with that. Teams that give us problems play tough, physical D, especially up top and pass well in the interior. We want teams to be chucking it from deep. Boeheim dares them to do it.
You certainly know better than I. But I think we both agree that Syracuse's strategy is to get teams to chuck from deep all game. It's the reason I put a boatload on Cuse vs. Villanova because I knew they'd fall into the trap and just chuck and chuck and chuck and I was counting on them to miss a bunch. What I'm saying is that a team could do exactly what Boehiem wants but if they start hitting everything Syracuse is in trouble.

The zone by definition and your admission wants teams to shoot a bunch of threes, mostly contested. Their exists a chance that an inferior team just hits everything. It's happened to teams before.
Our strategy is to make teams work hard to take tough shots no matter where they take them from. Yes, if they make them all we lose but that's no different than any team. I just think the hot shooting team from deep thing is a myth with us because it so rarely happens that's the reason the team loses. Historically we lose to teams that force a lot of turnovers, pass it well down low and rebound the thing. Duke just made like 16 3's against us and we beat them anyway. Watch what happens when teams or a guy starts making shots. Boeheim takes what they're doing away. he did it tonight after Turner made his last 3. Just keyed on the guy and he got nothing after that time out. We couldn't stop Duke because their bigs kicked it out so well. Not many teams can do that. You really have to work the ball (usually) to get those open looks from 3. Every team tries to screen up top but we just extend and take that away (usually). Opponents shooting something like 33% from 3. 507 attempts in 24 games. Opponents of Michigan state taken 512 attempts. Wichita st 511. You don't hear people saying those teams are vulnerable to a hot shooting team though.

 
Nipsey is actually Lawrence Moten.
He's my all time favorite. He used to go to parties with condoms taped to his jacket. Like 6 of them taped right on the front of his windbreaker. Just walk in and stand there and wait for chicks to come up to him. Then he'd disappear for awhile and come back with one less condom. Chicks loved the bald stress spot on his head. Haven't seen one since.

 
Nipsey is actually Lawrence Moten.
He's my all time favorite. He used to go to parties with condoms taped to his jacket. Like 6 of them taped right on the front of his windbreaker. Just walk in and stand there and wait for chicks to come up to him. Then he'd disappear for awhile and come back with one less condom. Chicks loved the bald stress spot on his head. Haven't seen one since.
He's one of the first guys I always name when the topic of "Guys you were sure were going to be good NBA players" comes up. He was so :moneybag: in college. I guess he was the classic tweener without a true position.

 
Nipsey is actually Lawrence Moten.
He's my all time favorite. He used to go to parties with condoms taped to his jacket. Like 6 of them taped right on the front of his windbreaker. Just walk in and stand there and wait for chicks to come up to him. Then he'd disappear for awhile and come back with one less condom. Chicks loved the bald stress spot on his head. Haven't seen one since.
He's one of the first guys I always name when the topic of "Guys you were sure were going to be good NBA players" comes up. He was so :moneybag: in college. I guess he was the classic tweener without a true position.
Yeah. He wasn't the fastest guy either. Was just so smooth.

 
I went there. We. I'm not talking about the Whalers here.
Unless you're suiting up, no we.
You're wrong on this one. No we when referring to pro teams. Colleges you attended, we is allowed. My school = "we", "us". Stick to telling us who gets the roses each week.

:own3d:
Nipsey, I'm sorry. Take a moment, say your goodbyes.

 
I'll say we, us, them and whatever else I feel like when referring to my teams. Don't give a crap what "rules" a bunch of online nerds have made up.

 
No doubt the zone isn't as good as last season but it's been great this year when it mattered. Ennis-Cooney are 1-2 in the conference in steals (I think). I'd still trade last year's guards for this year's guys because these guys can shoot. MCW and Triche couldn't throw it into the ocean most games.
True, the shooting was spotty and Triche fell off for sure (plus Cooney was a deer in headlights all year), but MCW's offense got us to the F4 IMHO. His penetration and the ability to stop short an rise above the D & score, which wasnt there through mid-Feb, became the centerpiece of the offense in March.

As an aside, this is where I dont understand the Ennis love by pros. Nearly every penetration by Ennis results in a scoop shot because he does not have the body to rise above the defense in the lane like MCW does/did. I'm a huge fan of Ennis of course, but his body is light-years away from MCW and it affects his ability to penetrate and play D. His intangibles will need to be off the charts to be effective at the next level.

 
LOL @ NC State. Up 1 with the ball.... turnover ----> layup. Thanks for coming.

:gag:
This post made me cringe almost as much as the ending of that game.
Which part did I get wrong?
The LOL @ State is pretty demeaning considering NC State played very well against the #1 team in the country, and @ that teams house.
Of course they played a nice game. The "LOL" was in reference to that one specific play. They won't be able to sleep tonight. Inbound the ball, hit a couple of FTs and close it out.
Warren should have been shooting FTs on that long pass to layup play he was fouled on.
:no: He had a good step and a half before he laid the ball up. Good no call
If that isn't continuation, then the refs make a lot of bad calls.
It absolutely was. He got fouled just after the foul line, kept moving, took another step + and took his shot and made it. All one continuous motion. Only that continuation rule is an NBA one not college. Not to say it doesn't get called more than a little, but it's not supposed to count when it does.

 
Still UK. They are basically unstoppable, other than when they lose. They can make dunk shots, bank shots, as well as other free shots. The one guy that they have can make rebounds too! He's real, real good, plus he is strong.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.

 
Give me Kansas. 4 legit NBA players and a solid, experienced PG. Assuming Embiid is healthy, too many options offensively between Selden, Ellis, Wiggins, Embiid to go cold and their defense should be good enough.

They did lose SU to Florida. Didn't catch that game so maybe I'll try to watch that since I'm not well versed on Florida.

 
Give me Kansas. 4 legit NBA players and a solid, experienced PG. Assuming Embiid is healthy, too many options offensively between Selden, Ellis, Wiggins, Embiid to go cold and their defense should be good enough.

They did lose SU to Florida. Didn't catch that game so maybe I'll try to watch that since I'm not well versed on Florida.
Kansas is legit. They also have the toughest schedule in the land. I also think nova's up there too.

 
Give me Kansas. 4 legit NBA players and a solid, experienced PG. Assuming Embiid is healthy, too many options offensively between Selden, Ellis, Wiggins, Embiid to go cold and their defense should be good enough.

They did lose SU to Florida. Didn't catch that game so maybe I'll try to watch that since I'm not well versed on Florida.
Kansas is legit. They also have the toughest schedule in the land. I also think nova's up there too.
Not high on Nova at all. They have 2 wins which they are hanging their hat on. Both came in the Bahamas in November. Since then, losses to Creighton and 'Cuse in noncompetitive games.

Of course this all changes when the match ups are announced but I just don't see Nova being able to beat a top team consistently. I think Vegas futures are probably best indicators granted they favor blue bloods a bit. They have Nova at 12th best.

Leading the way are Florida, Kansas, Cuse, MSU, Wichita State, Duke, Arizona, UK, Louisville, Iowa

 
Florida beat Kansas because the Jayhawks turned it over 24 times. Obviously UF's quality defense deserves some credit for that, but it seemed to me that the KU had issues of their own. Have they gotten better in that area?

 
Give me Kansas. 4 legit NBA players and a solid, experienced PG. Assuming Embiid is healthy, too many options offensively between Selden, Ellis, Wiggins, Embiid to go cold and their defense should be good enough.

They did lose SU to Florida. Didn't catch that game so maybe I'll try to watch that since I'm not well versed on Florida.
Kansas is legit. They also have the toughest schedule in the land. I also think nova's up there too.
Not high on Nova at all. They have 2 wins which they are hanging their hat on. Both came in the Bahamas in November. Since then, losses to Creighton and 'Cuse in noncompetitive games.

Of course this all changes when the match ups are announced but I just don't see Nova being able to beat a top team consistently. I think Vegas futures are probably best indicators granted they favor blue bloods a bit. They have Nova at 12th best.

Leading the way are Florida, Kansas, Cuse, MSU, Wichita State, Duke, Arizona, UK, Louisville, Iowa
I should clarify since I tend to get lost in the stats, I don't consider nova to be the best team right now, but I see them as possibly outperforming their eventual seed in the tournament, and consider them a team that could win it. There's a group of stats that all champs from the last two decades I believe, have had in common, and right now the only teams to have them AND pass the kenpom champ test are Kansas and Nova.

As for some of the other teams you list, I think I take Louisville off of it. Louisville's SOS hardly has them battle tested for the tournament.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
It's the history. :shrug: Teams with that slow a tempo simply have never won the tournament and as such it's hard to include them in the discussion.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
It's the history. :shrug: Teams with that slow a tempo simply have never won the tournament and as such it's hard to include them in the discussion.
Does history not come with context? I think what Nipsey is pointing out is that this is less 'Cuse's tempo than their opponents, largely due to 'Cuse's defense. It's not as if the Orange look to take a slow down approach at all... and when needed, they have ramped it up and can score in bunches.

You can make arguements for other teams, and you can validly point out that the Orange may be vulnerable (who isn't?) - but to say "its hard to include them in the discussion" for an undefeated #1 ranked team in the country (unanimous, mind you), that seems a bit ludicrous.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
It's the history. :shrug: Teams with that slow a tempo simply have never won the tournament and as such it's hard to include them in the discussion.
I'm saying in this case the stat is deceiving.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
This makes sense. Interesting. If they win at Duke and/or at UVa you won't hear those arguments from me.

Unfortunately for them, they've been very highly ranked in January and February many, many times in the last decade, in part due to weak OOC scheduling, and have faltered in March almost every year. Last year was their first Final Four since Carmelo, they haven't won a conference tournament since 2006. And they have had some very lofty records into late January and even February IIRC, along with a couple #1 seeds. That history, plus only being 5th in the KenPom rankings, means you're gonna get a lot of doubters. Seems reasonable to me. I would never say you shouldn't "include them in the discussion," though. I figure they have about the same shot as maybe 6 or so other very good teams.

 
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I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
It's the history. :shrug: Teams with that slow a tempo simply have never won the tournament and as such it's hard to include them in the discussion.
Does history not come with context? I think what Nipsey is pointing out is that this is less 'Cuse's tempo than their opponents, largely due to 'Cuse's defense. It's not as if the Orange look to take a slow down approach at all... and when needed, they have ramped it up and can score in bunches.

You can make arguements for other teams, and you can validly point out that the Orange may be vulnerable (who isn't?) - but to say "its hard to include them in the discussion" for an undefeated #1 ranked team in the country (unanimous, mind you), that seems a bit ludicrous.
So if their zone is causing the slow tempo, how is that not attributable to their team as a whole? Whatever the reason, Syracuse plays less possessions per game than most teams, and that can cause more variability in the tournament. They also have a low PPG, so if they really can ramp it up, it doesn't show in the numbers, and this is all during a year where scoring is up pretty much across the board.

Yes, all teams are vulnerable but when you look at the numbers, Syracuse is about 4th or 5th most likely to win the tournament at this point going by history.

AP rankings are an incredibly poor indicator of anything. Remember, Gonzaga was ranked number 1 for over a month last year.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
This makes sense. Interesting. If they win at Duke and/or at UVa you won't hear those arguments from me.

Unfortunately for them, they've been very highly ranked in January and February many, many times in the last decade, in part due to weak OOC scheduling, and have faltered in March almost every year. Last year was their first Final Four since Carmelo, they haven't won a conference tournament since 2006. And they have had some very lofty records into late January and even February IIRC, along with a couple #1 seeds. That history, plus only being 5th in the KenPom rankings, means you're gonna get a lot of doubters. Seems reasonable to me. I would never say you shouldn't "include them in the discussion," though. I figure they have about the same shot as maybe 6 or so other very good teams.
Before this season we've had 3 teams that were legitimate contenders in recent years, 2 of those teams lost key guys (Onuaku, Melo) right before the tournament. Last year's team was the best we had even had up to that point but had 2 guards who couldn't shoot the ball. This year's team is better than that team. The whole "we've seen this before" thing is just inaccurate. We have not seen this before. We've never been this good up front. Our 2 guard is probably the best shooter we've ever had and our freshman PG is arguably playing better than our last guy who went in the lottery. People think we've been lucky these last two games have to remember we've done it without Keita (who is likely back tonight). Keita is extremely important to this team. He's probably better on the defensive side than Christmas is and that's saying something. He started the season closing out games back there and only because Christmas has emerged recently have his minutes decreased. We've had to play for stretches with Grant sliding over to center and a back up guard in Gbinje playing up front. We're probably not going to win the thing but nobody is probably going to win the thing. The whole thing comes down to which teams they put in our region. Keep Pitt the hell out of it.

 
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
It's the history. :shrug: Teams with that slow a tempo simply have never won the tournament and as such it's hard to include them in the discussion.
Does history not come with context? I think what Nipsey is pointing out is that this is less 'Cuse's tempo than their opponents, largely due to 'Cuse's defense. It's not as if the Orange look to take a slow down approach at all... and when needed, they have ramped it up and can score in bunches.

You can make arguements for other teams, and you can validly point out that the Orange may be vulnerable (who isn't?) - but to say "its hard to include them in the discussion" for an undefeated #1 ranked team in the country (unanimous, mind you), that seems a bit ludicrous.
So if their zone is causing the slow tempo, how is that not attributable to their team as a whole? Whatever the reason, Syracuse plays less possessions per game than most teams, and that can cause more variability in the tournament. They also have a low PPG, so if they really can ramp it up, it doesn't show in the numbers, and this is all during a year where scoring is up pretty much across the board.

Yes, all teams are vulnerable but when you look at the numbers, Syracuse is about 4th or 5th most likely to win the tournament at this point going by history.

AP rankings are an incredibly poor indicator of anything. Remember, Gonzaga was ranked number 1 for over a month last year.
I agree that AP rankings are not a great indicator, but even if they are 4th or 5th most likely going by history how does that mean they are not in the discussion?

As to the point above about 'Cuse not fairing well in March of late it's true and yet has some more context. Some years they just fell flat and choked. No excuse. But we've had some real bummer injuries / loss of players, really really key players, that could very well have made the difference between at the least a long run if not a real chance to win it all.

But don't think that every 'Cuse fan out there (well, maybe not Nipsey) is worried to #### about a similar weak ending to a previously stellar season.

 

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