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Rep. Frank to step down at end of term (1 Viewer)

Koya said:
Scoresman said:
Koya said:
Scoresman said:
Nipsey said:
TobiasFunke said:
Scoresman said:
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
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Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
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Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
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It's the history. :shrug: Teams with that slow a tempo simply have never won the tournament and as such it's hard to include them in the discussion.
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Does history not come with context? I think what Nipsey is pointing out is that this is less 'Cuse's tempo than their opponents, largely due to 'Cuse's defense. It's not as if the Orange look to take a slow down approach at all... and when needed, they have ramped it up and can score in bunches.

You can make arguements for other teams, and you can validly point out that the Orange may be vulnerable (who isn't?) - but to say "its hard to include them in the discussion" for an undefeated #1 ranked team in the country (unanimous, mind you), that seems a bit ludicrous.
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So if their zone is causing the slow tempo, how is that not attributable to their team as a whole? Whatever the reason, Syracuse plays less possessions per game than most teams, and that can cause more variability in the tournament. They also have a low PPG, so if they really can ramp it up, it doesn't show in the numbers, and this is all during a year where scoring is up pretty much across the board.

Yes, all teams are vulnerable but when you look at the numbers, Syracuse is about 4th or 5th most likely to win the tournament at this point going by history.

AP rankings are an incredibly poor indicator of anything. Remember, Gonzaga was ranked number 1 for over a month last year.
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I agree that AP rankings are not a great indicator, but even if they are 4th or 5th most likely going by history how does that mean they are not in the discussion?

As to the point above about 'Cuse not fairing well in March of late it's true and yet has some more context. Some years they just fell flat and choked. No excuse. But we've had some real bummer injuries / loss of players, really really key players, that could very well have made the difference between at the least a long run if not a real chance to win it all.

But don't think that every 'Cuse fan out there (well, maybe not Nipsey) is worried to #### about a similar weak ending to a previously stellar season.
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"not in the discussion" was a poor choice of words. I certainly wont be penciling them into my brackets as the winner though.

 
Scoresman said:
Koya said:
Scoresman said:
Koya said:
Scoresman said:
Nipsey said:
TobiasFunke said:
Scoresman said:
I've started my annual pre-March Madness stat crunching and this is a tough year to pick a "best team", at least at this point.

Syracuse is the obvious answer, but they have one of the lowest scoring margins a one seed has ever had. (SM is one of the more reliable indicators of tourney success.) Also, in a year where scoring is up across the board, Syracuse has a shockingly low PPG, again lower than any one seed in history. There's a lot to like about Syracuse, but I see them as potentially vulnerable.

Wichita State has about a 75% chance to stay undefeated through the regular season according to kenpom and if they do, it will be talked about a lot and a lot of brackets will have them advancing far because of it. The concern here is that high seeded mid-majors historically do poorly in the tourney, and their SOS is pretty bad. Remember Gonzaga last year? Yeah...

Arizona's PPG took a huge hit once Ashley went down and I fear they will be seeded based on what they did prior to that than how they are performing now. Their kenpom efficiency numbers are also pretty bad for a top seed.

Florida is probably my choice right now, since they currently have the most balanced offensive and defensive efficiency stats. They have a similar PPG problem that Syracuse has, however. Duke is probably my number 2 based on a combination of their offensive output and SOS, but their defense is suspect and defense matters in March.
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Syracuse's best win away from the Carrier Dome is at Pittsburgh last weekend on that half-court miracle buzzer beater. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 6, by the way. Their next best non-home win is a 5 point "road" win over St. Johns at MSG. They go to Duke this weekend and UVa next weekend; if they win one and keep the other close I might think more of them, but until them I wonder if they've been more lucky than good.

They also play at an extremely slow tempo- adjusted tempo is 61.0. Nobody who plays anywhere near that slow for all the season that KenPom has data has won a national title. I think the slowest was UConn at 65.4 in that weird 2011 season where all the 1 seeds were gone before the Final Four. IMO playing slow makes high seeds more vulnerable to upsets- fewer possessions means more variance.
Click to expand...
Pretty much every team SU has played doesn't initiate their offense until the shot clock is under 10. When SU has been down they've been able to hurry teams up with a press but they haven't really had to do it much. Then they get late in games and boehiem takes the air out of the ball. I just don't buy the slow tempo is the reason they lose argument. If they lose it's going to be because they run into a great defensive team on the wrong night. That and it's really hard to win the whole thing. The win at Pitt was a great win because that is THE team that knows exactly how to beat SU and has the ability to execute the blueprint. If Cuse beats Duke we'll hear it was because Duke had to play that makeup game. if they beat Virginia it'll be because Virginia isn't that good. Whatever. They'll lose eventually and it's going to be tough to win a title but this team is loaded and arguably the best the school has ever had.
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It's the history. :shrug: Teams with that slow a tempo simply have never won the tournament and as such it's hard to include them in the discussion.
Click to expand...
Does history not come with context? I think what Nipsey is pointing out is that this is less 'Cuse's tempo than their opponents, largely due to 'Cuse's defense. It's not as if the Orange look to take a slow down approach at all... and when needed, they have ramped it up and can score in bunches.

You can make arguements for other teams, and you can validly point out that the Orange may be vulnerable (who isn't?) - but to say "its hard to include them in the discussion" for an undefeated #1 ranked team in the country (unanimous, mind you), that seems a bit ludicrous.
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So if their zone is causing the slow tempo, how is that not attributable to their team as a whole? Whatever the reason, Syracuse plays less possessions per game than most teams, and that can cause more variability in the tournament. They also have a low PPG, so if they really can ramp it up, it doesn't show in the numbers, and this is all during a year where scoring is up pretty much across the board.

Yes, all teams are vulnerable but when you look at the numbers, Syracuse is about 4th or 5th most likely to win the tournament at this point going by history.

AP rankings are an incredibly poor indicator of anything. Remember, Gonzaga was ranked number 1 for over a month last year.
Click to expand...
I agree that AP rankings are not a great indicator, but even if they are 4th or 5th most likely going by history how does that mean they are not in the discussion?

As to the point above about 'Cuse not fairing well in March of late it's true and yet has some more context. Some years they just fell flat and choked. No excuse. But we've had some real bummer injuries / loss of players, really really key players, that could very well have made the difference between at the least a long run if not a real chance to win it all.

But don't think that every 'Cuse fan out there (well, maybe not Nipsey) is worried to #### about a similar weak ending to a previously stellar season.
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"not in the discussion" was a poor choice of words. I certainly wont be penciling them into my brackets as the winner though.
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Fair enough. I do think they are as or more primed than recent teams but can see why you'd go another way as a betting man.

 
Pretty much every team has been playing syracuse the same way in terms of taking it all the way down in the shot clock. BC will do it tonight. The line dropped 1 1/2 points with the majority of the money on SU which says to me the game is going under. I'd love it if Boeheim pressed early against these bottom feeders but he just won't do it at all unless he has to. Last time he did it was in that first Miami game.

 
In case Syracuse getting taken to OT at home against NC State wasn't enough, they are now getting taken to OT at home against a fiesty 6-19 Boston College squad (2-10 in the ACC). Sorry, they're going nowhere.

 
Raider Nation said:
In case Syracuse getting taken to OT at home against NC State wasn't enough, they are now getting taken to OT at home against a fiesty 6-19 Boston College squad (2-10 in the ACC). Sorry, they're going nowhere.
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and the score in an overtime game is in the 50s. lol.

 
Raider Nation said:
In case Syracuse getting taken to OT at home against NC State wasn't enough, they are now getting taken to OT at home against a fiesty 6-19 Boston College squad (2-10 in the ACC). Sorry, they're going nowhere.
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Going nowhere? Then who's going "somewhere", UF (w/Auburn playing them to the wire right now)?

SU is in the usual funk that any team in the modern era goes through for a certain stretch. ...yet they've won every game even in the funk (so far).

 
Is anyone going to be shocked if all four #1 seeds are out of the tournament by the end of the first round of sweet 16 games? If ever there was a time that "best" was a fluid term, it would be this year.

 
Tango said:
Raider Nation said:
In case Syracuse getting taken to OT at home against NC State wasn't enough, they are now getting taken to OT at home against a fiesty 6-19 Boston College squad (2-10 in the ACC). Sorry, they're going nowhere.
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Going nowhere? Then who's going "somewhere", UF (w/Auburn playing them to the wire right now)?

SU is in the usual funk that any team in the modern era goes through for a certain stretch. ...yet they've won every game even in the funk (so far).
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I've been wrong plenty of times. One more won't matter. I just don't see a championship team here.

 
Raider Nation said:
Tango said:
Raider Nation said:
In case Syracuse getting taken to OT at home against NC State wasn't enough, they are now getting taken to OT at home against a fiesty 6-19 Boston College squad (2-10 in the ACC). Sorry, they're going nowhere.
Click to expand...
Going nowhere? Then who's going "somewhere", UF (w/Auburn playing them to the wire right now)?

SU is in the usual funk that any team in the modern era goes through for a certain stretch. ...yet they've won every game even in the funk (so far).
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I've been wrong plenty of times. One more won't matter. I just don't see a championship team here.
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Senior leader in Fair

Floor general in Ennis

Athletic scorer in Grant

More than a 3pt sniper in Cooney

Emerging Otis Hill type (but thinner) in Christmas

...just not much of a bench other than Keita.

Can beat anyone this year. Im usually very skeptical, but the ingredients are there this year and the competition is meh too.

 
Raider Nation said:
Nipsey said:
Like clockwork. Lose to a team that can't miss in 2nd half and OT. Great game by BC, whatyagonna do?
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Cue the "a loss is probably a good thing when you think about it" camp?

Fatty Francesa has been hammering away with this theory for weeks.
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I don't think so. Only thing you can take from the game is you get up by double digits and go into sleepwalk mode, you can lose. We weren't going undefeated but I can't imagine this helps us in the next 3 games. We play like this saturday we'll get trounced. Figured that game saturday would be our first loss. If Keita is healthy he's gotta get his minutes. Grant in the middle with Gbinje up front should be in emergency situation only. i get they want to work him back slowly but need that guy big time in March. Still think they need to press more when teams do this. Waited until overtime to press. Biden did this team no favors with that phone call.

 
Was pretty much inevitable, you can't play this poorly for an extended period of time and keep coming up with close wins. I don't think it's "a loss is probably a good thing when you think about it" as RN suggested, but more of a validation that their play in the last few games isn't anywhere close to where it needs to be to be an elite team.

And by the way RN, claiming a team won't win the national championship and saying they're going nowhere if they don't is kind of silly. Obviously only one team can do it, and it's damn tough to do. Hardly a bold prediction to pick a team and say they won't win it all.

 
Raider Nation said:
Nipsey said:
Like clockwork. Lose to a team that can't miss in 2nd half and OT. Great game by BC, whatyagonna do?
Click to expand...
Cue the "a loss is probably a good thing when you think about it" camp?

Fatty Francesa has been hammering away with this theory for weeks.
Click to expand...
As much as I try to tell myself "we needed to lose one" this sucked. As much for how just pitiful we looked as the fact that we got the loss. It was a ####in' awesome ride for a regular season, now we do need to work on some of the weaknesses and more importantly get a groove back.

 
scoobus said:
And by the way RN, claiming a team won't win the national championship and saying they're going nowhere if they don't is kind of silly. Obviously only one team can do it, and it's damn tough to do. Hardly a bold prediction to pick a team and say they won't win it all.
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They're the #1 team in the country. It's not like I said Air Force won't win it all. :shrug:

 
Raider Nation said:
scoobus said:
And by the way RN, claiming a team won't win the national championship and saying they're going nowhere if they don't is kind of silly. Obviously only one team can do it, and it's damn tough to do. Hardly a bold prediction to pick a team and say they won't win it all.
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They're the #1 team in the country. It's not like I said Air Force won't win it all. :shrug:
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Saying blah-blah isn't any good because they won't win it all is silly. There's probably about 12 teams that have a chance give or take, and Syracuse is one of them. But even being one of those teams, the chances are still obviously small.

 
scoobus said:
Raider Nation said:
scoobus said:
And by the way RN, claiming a team won't win the national championship and saying they're going nowhere if they don't is kind of silly. Obviously only one team can do it, and it's damn tough to do. Hardly a bold prediction to pick a team and say they won't win it all.
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They're the #1 team in the country. It's not like I said Air Force won't win it all. :shrug:
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Saying blah-blah isn't any good because they won't win it all is silly. There's probably about 12 teams that have a chance give or take, and Syracuse is one of them. But even being one of those teams, the chances are still obviously small.
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Now you are attributing quotes to me erroneously. I never said they weren't any good.

 
Couldn't make a shot, they made everything, game still went to OT. What I want to know is why they take 5 minutes scrutinizing the ball Ennis may or may not have thrown out of bounds but play right before when BC player fell in lane and clearly just threw it right out of bounds wasn't reviewed? BC played well, we lost, better now than a month from now. Gotta start hitting shots though. Missed a boatload of fts too. Really think Gbinje shouldn't be on the floor except to give ennis/cooney short rests. boeheim playing him all over, giving him time in critical situations. Moving Grant over to center messes him up offensively. Rakeem hits that little baby hook all is well. Should never have come down to that though. Uncanny how everyone we've played makes contested bombs when they need them. What were they, like 9 of 12 from deep in the second half and ot at one point?

 
Raider Nation said:
scoobus said:
Raider Nation said:
scoobus said:
And by the way RN, claiming a team won't win the national championship and saying they're going nowhere if they don't is kind of silly. Obviously only one team can do it, and it's damn tough to do. Hardly a bold prediction to pick a team and say they won't win it all.
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They're the #1 team in the country. It's not like I said Air Force won't win it all. :shrug:
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Saying blah-blah isn't any good because they won't win it all is silly. There's probably about 12 teams that have a chance give or take, and Syracuse is one of them. But even being one of those teams, the chances are still obviously small.
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Now you are attributing quotes to me erroneously. I never said they weren't any good.
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Yeah I might be over stating it. The "going nowhere" statement kind of bugged me. If going somewhere means winning a national championship, there's a lot of really good teams that will be going nowhere this year.

 
Nipsey said:
Couldn't make a shot, they made everything, game still went to OT. What I want to know is why they take 5 minutes scrutinizing the ball Ennis may or may not have thrown out of bounds but play right before when BC player fell in lane and clearly just threw it right out of bounds wasn't reviewed? BC played well, we lost, better now than a month from now. Gotta start hitting shots though. Missed a boatload of fts too. Really think Gbinje shouldn't be on the floor except to give ennis/cooney short rests. boeheim playing him all over, giving him time in critical situations. Moving Grant over to center messes him up offensively. Rakeem hits that little baby hook all is well. Should never have come down to that though. Uncanny how everyone we've played makes contested bombs when they need them. What were they, like 9 of 12 from deep in the second half and ot at one point?
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eta...watching replay of that out of bounds play. Never mind, Fair did tip it. Didn't see it first time.

 
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Boeheim pretty critical of Christmas postgame. Saying he was non-existent. Saying he didn't think Keita was moving well enough to be effective. Offense needs to open up after this. Clear outs for CJ every time, gotta do more than just one on one. Hope they shake this off quick or it's rout time on saturday.

 
Raider Nation said:
Nipsey said:
Like clockwork. Lose to a team that can't miss in 2nd half and OT. Great game by BC, whatyagonna do?
Click to expand...
Cue the "a loss is probably a good thing when you think about it" camp?

Fatty Francesa has been hammering away with this theory for weeks.
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I wanted us to lose a game. But not a close/OT game. I want us to get punched in the nose. Lose at Duke by 15. Take a hard loss and see if this team reacts. See how they respond. If they're gonna sleepwalk through games, I want to know now. But if it lights a fire under them to fight back and wake up and play out of their minds--the best game of their lives--might as well strike that match this weekend.

 
Scoresman said:
sporthenry said:
Scoresman said:
sporthenry said:
Give me Kansas. 4 legit NBA players and a solid, experienced PG. Assuming Embiid is healthy, too many options offensively between Selden, Ellis, Wiggins, Embiid to go cold and their defense should be good enough.

They did lose SU to Florida. Didn't catch that game so maybe I'll try to watch that since I'm not well versed on Florida.
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Kansas is legit. They also have the toughest schedule in the land. I also think nova's up there too.
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Not high on Nova at all. They have 2 wins which they are hanging their hat on. Both came in the Bahamas in November. Since then, losses to Creighton and 'Cuse in noncompetitive games.

Of course this all changes when the match ups are announced but I just don't see Nova being able to beat a top team consistently. I think Vegas futures are probably best indicators granted they favor blue bloods a bit. They have Nova at 12th best.

Leading the way are Florida, Kansas, Cuse, MSU, Wichita State, Duke, Arizona, UK, Louisville, Iowa
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I should clarify since I tend to get lost in the stats, I don't consider nova to be the best team right now, but I see them as possibly outperforming their eventual seed in the tournament, and consider them a team that could win it. There's a group of stats that all champs from the last two decades I believe, have had in common, and right now the only teams to have them AND pass the kenpom champ test are Kansas and Nova.

As for some of the other teams you list, I think I take Louisville off of it. Louisville's SOS hardly has them battle tested for the tournament.
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Their opponents have been nothing to write home about, but they can only beat who is on their schedule. They look like a damn strong team to me. They'll be a tough out in the tourney.

 
sporthenry said:
Give me Kansas. 4 legit NBA players and a solid, experienced PG. Assuming Embiid is healthy, too many options offensively between Selden, Ellis, Wiggins, Embiid to go cold and their defense should be good enough.

They did lose SU to Florida. Didn't catch that game so maybe I'll try to watch that since I'm not well versed on Florida.
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Teams that can play 3/4 or full court pressure defense, especially pressure on the PG, will give Kansas trouble. Florida opened up a big lead on Kansas running a 3/4 court trap that produced a lot of turnovers 30-40 feet from basket. Villanova did the same thing when they beat KU at Atlantis. The PG situation is average for D-I, subpar for a power conference leader. Selden is a good enough passer to help break presses from SG and Ellis can come up from PF to be a midcourt target against zone traps. Wiggins is great at attacking the basket after the press has been broken from SF, but he's not a good enough dribbler with his off-hand to help break good presses.Overall, PG is KU's weak link. Starting PG Naadir Tharpe has improved in halfcourt offense, but he struggles with pressure D and goes for the SportsCenter pass too often on transition. Back PG Frank Mason can break down his man and get in the lane from out top, but is slow to recognize double-teams.

Self will sometimes play both PGs together to speed the game up. Tharpe is a good enough shooter to play college SG, and is a much better defender in space than on the ball. They also have a 3rd PG option against zone defense in combo guard Connor Frankamp, but his handle isn't tight enough to reset a broken play against man D.

On the strengths side... Lots of depth down low and lots of speed on the perimeter. Backup bigs Tarik Black and Jamari Traylor would start for most power conference teams, but they are 10-15 minute players unless Embiid is hurt or in foul trouble. Selden doesn't look fast at first but he's so smooth he's making it look easy. Wiggins will lull his man to sleep and then go into Blur Mode to draw foul and/or get to the rim. Backup SF Brannen Greene is already an NBA-caliber shooter with NBA wing height and length, but lack of defensive fundamentals on the court and bad decisions off it have limited his playing time. For all his weaknesses, Tharpe has good speed for his position, and Mason has an uncommon breakaway gear with the ball for going coast-to-coast.

There's enough offensive balance to avoid long slumps and to battle through foul trouble, but Greene and Frankamp are the only two guys on the roster capable of shooting 6-for-8 or 7-for-9 on three-pointers, and neither are good enough defensively to play long stretches for Self. Self will forgive a bad shot if you get back on D and stop your man, but he has little patience for defensive lapses.

The teams to look for to knock KU out in the tourney are teams that create a lot of turnovers on defense and makes threes in volume from different sources on offense. The teams that played KU close did have done one of those well, and teams that beat them did both.

Also keep an eye on Embiid's health. He hasn't been 100% since conference play started and he's missed some games and practices. For a guy still learning the game like Embiid is, a missed practice carries more loss than most future lottery picks.

 
The Florida Gators are the new No. 1 team college basketball. While Syracuse, last week’s No. 1, lost to Boston College on Wednesday night, the No. 2 Gators survived a scare against Auburn. On Saturday, they got a win at Ole Miss while the Orange lost again, this time at Duke.The Gators are the fifth No. 1 this season, and it’s their first time atop the polls since 2006-07. As the defending national champions, they were atop the polls for eight weeks that year.

Unbeaten Wichita State, which finishes its regular season on Saturday against Missouri State, moved up to No. 2. Arizona, Syracuse and Kansas rounded out the top five.

Duke, which lost to UNC before beating Syracuse, dropped one spot to No. 6. Louisville moved up four spots to No. 7, followed by No. 8 Villanova, No. 9 Creighton and No. 10 Saint Louis.
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