What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Risk Management (1 Viewer)

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
For the last couple weeks I've had some interesting decisions as some of bye weeks and injuries piled up, and after setting my lineups today I'm wondering if anyone else does something similar to what I did.

I'm in a dozen dynasty leagues, all of them PPR. After setting my lineups based on what I thought gave me the best chance to win I found that I had Cecil Shorts in seven lineups and Alex Green in three. And those were my flex plays/last starters in every case.

But looking at that 7/3 split I didn't like it. And running Shorts vs Green through a couple WDIS services I got results that suggest it's pretty close to a coin flip.

So I went back through and found a couple leagues where I could sub Green in for Shorts to make it five Week 9 starts for each guy. The net result is that even though I have a slight preference for Shorts heads up with Green I feel better about seeing the two split evenly than having seven of my ten eggs in a basket where they could bust with a bad week from Gabbert or the Jags offense.

Does anyone else in many leagues approach lineup decisions like this? Occasionally sitting a player you like somewhat better to manage the weekly risk as a portfolio rather than dealing with each league in isolation?

(ETA: I'm not looking for help making the WDIS decision here...I'm pretty much settled on that. I'm interested in a general discussion of risk management across many leagues and how people approach that.)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The least risk is starting the guy you expect will score the most points. If you don't have any confidence in one over the other, then might as well split them equal.

 
I'm the opposite. I go all in with the guy who I think will produce more. Nothing like getting a big touchdown that helps you in 5 leagues.

 
You have a point.

With fringe players such as shorts and/or Green, there are usually a couple of others on the waiver wire that I place a similar value upon. in cases such as this, I will sometimes grab one for one league and another for a different league. sometimes you have no choice in the matter as someone else has grabbed one or more of them.

I do tend to lean towards the player I like better for that week (often matchup based for WR3 and WR4 types) However, it is sometimes the case where you may be looking for a permanent roster spot due to injury or poor performance of current starters. That has to play a role in the decision. Ie. if your team may need a permanent replacement at WR as compared to RB due to an injury where the status is still in question, then you grab the WR.

Shorts looks like he may be a legitimate WR3 (I had previously classified him as a WR4 or Flex WR) and my WR4 happened to be underperforming.

I recently picked him up as a WR4 and still use him as such. But my starting WR's are Cruz, Jordy Nelson, and Reggie Wayne. If Nelson misses this week, he will become my WR3, but he will not permanently unseat any of those guys unless the wheels fall off for any of them or their teams.

Green is in a similar situation. Not really a RB2, but is a solid RB3 who can step in and be your RB2 if needed due to injury or if the matchup is good.

the fact you are using them in a flex spot is irrelevant. You seem to value them the same and that's fine. the situation is more or less the same. I'd do it on a case by case basis depending on the individual rosters and risks at the position with each. If it happens that you have one player in 7 leagues and the other in 3 then so be it.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top