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Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Roddy White Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Roddy White is a very good NFL receiver and a great fantasy player. He is the unquestioned favorite WR target on his team and he is reliable. He has not missed a single game in his five NFL seasons. His targets have increased in each of the previous three seasons, even while Tony Gonzalez was added to the Falcon's roster. He had 137 (8.6 per game) targets in 07. That increased to 148 (9.3) in 08 and again to 165 (10.3) last season. In each of those three seasons, he has caught over 80 passes and averages 1246 yards and 8 TDs. He has a young talented QB that appears ready to improve.

He is definitely a solid fantasy option at WR. In addition to his not missing a game in five seasons, consider that in 09, he only had five games with less than double digit targets and none less than 5. He is without a doubt the favorite target of his QB. He only had two huge games in 09 and with Michael Turner recovered, his opportunities at the goal line could be reduced. He did score 11 TDs in 09 which was his first season where he scored more than 7 TDs.

His current ADP is also difficult to swallow as he is ranked WR 6 and 19 overall. If you want him on your squad, you have to take him early. Another indication of his steady performances is that lowest ranking by FBG staff is as WR 10. One other has him at WR 9 and all 15 others have him slotted between #4 and #8.

I see another year similar to last season with possibly a few more yards and receptions and a few less TDs as the Falcons lean again on Turner.

Roddy White 16 gms 160 targets (10 per game) 91 catches 1310 yards 14.4 ypc and 8 TDs

 
Solid option at WR. Upcoming talent at QB in Matt Ryan. After AJ, he might have the least amount of question marks of the next tier of WRs. Probably can't explode like Randy Moss can, but I think is downside is pretty limited.

87 Rec, 1250 rec yds, 8 TD

 
Can't believe this thread only has two posts since June 1st.

This is one of the best WRs in the league with Top 5 potential, maybe even Top 3.

I'm projecting career bests in each major WR stat category, maybe except TDs because of a healthy Turner.

100 catches, 1400 yards, 9-12 TDs.

The guy gets his targets. What else do you want.

And one more thing.....

For the LOLs

 
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With Turner at full strength I doubt he'll match his td total from last year. he'll still get the targets but I think his total points drop.

 
Bump for this BEAST.

Top 5 WR this year? Im all for it! Turner back to healthy, Gonzo playing great, and the #2 and 3 WRs on the team are looking good in camp. Kerry Meier on Return duties. The teams looking solid this year!!

90+ Catches

1400 Yds

14 TDs

 
I actually have RW ranked as my no1 WR for the 2010 season.

A healthy Turner, improving young QB and supreme talent will all equate to monsterous year for this beast of a man.

Tony G and Jenkins will keep double coverage from White and Matt Ryan will thread the needle to white in excess of 95times

prediction

98 receptions / 1529yds / 12tds

ballsy, yes.... always liked white. LOVE him this year

 
I actually have RW ranked as my no1 WR for the 2010 season.A healthy Turner, improving young QB and supreme talent will all equate to monsterous year for this beast of a man. Tony G and Jenkins will keep double coverage from White and Matt Ryan will thread the needle to white in excess of 95timesprediction98 receptions / 1529yds / 12tdsballsy, yes.... always liked white. LOVE him this year
I like it, I don't necessarily agree but I like the thought process. I like him also because he's very consistent. End of year stats are great, but consistency helps you get consistent fantasy wins. Guys like that are very valuable to me.
 
Sabertooth said:
-jb- said:
lakermadness07 said:
is he better than miles austin?
better talent, worse situation.
Why is his situation worse? I'm not convinced of that at all.
While I'm sure it's possible, I don't believe that Atlanta will throw as much as Dallas, and I also don't believe that Ryan's completion percentage will be as strong as Romo's. So, that says to me that it's a worse situation. However, I do agree that he's the better talent, and that could make enough difference for him to finish well ahead of Austin. I don't see a huge difference between the two.
 
Sabertooth said:
-jb- said:
lakermadness07 said:
is he better than miles austin?
better talent, worse situation.
Why is his situation worse? I'm not convinced of that at all.
While I'm sure it's possible, I don't believe that Atlanta will throw as much as Dallas, and I also don't believe that Ryan's completion percentage will be as strong as Romo's. So, that says to me that it's a worse situation. However, I do agree that he's the better talent, and that could make enough difference for him to finish well ahead of Austin. I don't see a huge difference between the two.
As far as the situation goes, a lot depends on how much Ryan improves in his third year, whereas we know what Romo can do. Romo has been better but it wouldn't surprise me if Ryan becomes better than Romo, yet right now we don't know that. The other thing is while Dallas has more weapons and has a better chance of putting up more yards and points overall, there are more mouthes to feed with carries and looks. Dallas has three capable backs, a great TE, Austin, Dez Bryant, and Roy Williams. So, while his offense may be better, will that equate to more looks? For me, the biggest question mark with Austin is that he has had one great year, but can he do it again? He wouldn't be the first WR to have a great year and then regress. In fact, you don't need to look any further than a fellow teammate, Roy Williams, who just a few years ago people were projecting as a top 10 dynasty Wr. White has put up top numbers for three years now so you can be pretty confident that short of an injury he will be flirting with the top 10 at least.
 
Sabertooth said:
-jb- said:
lakermadness07 said:
is he better than miles austin?
better talent, worse situation.
Why is his situation worse? I'm not convinced of that at all.
While I'm sure it's possible, I don't believe that Atlanta will throw as much as Dallas, and I also don't believe that Ryan's completion percentage will be as strong as Romo's. So, that says to me that it's a worse situation. However, I do agree that he's the better talent, and that could make enough difference for him to finish well ahead of Austin. I don't see a huge difference between the two.
As far as the situation goes, a lot depends on how much Ryan improves in his third year, whereas we know what Romo can do. Romo has been better but it wouldn't surprise me if Ryan becomes better than Romo, yet right now we don't know that. The other thing is while Dallas has more weapons and has a better chance of putting up more yards and points overall, there are more mouthes to feed with carries and looks. Dallas has three capable backs, a great TE, Austin, Dez Bryant, and Roy Williams. So, while his offense may be better, will that equate to more looks? For me, the biggest question mark with Austin is that he has had one great year, but can he do it again? He wouldn't be the first WR to have a great year and then regress. In fact, you don't need to look any further than a fellow teammate, Roy Williams, who just a few years ago people were projecting as a top 10 dynasty Wr. White has put up top numbers for three years now so you can be pretty confident that short of an injury he will be flirting with the top 10 at least.
Yeah, I agree. I just pulled last year's targets for both White (157), and Austin (116). That's pretty telling. I'm starting to rethink this...
 
So, I suppose the question with White is more a question with the Falcons. Will they score enough? All four FBG prognosticators have him <10 TDs. Who sees him getting more than that?

 
Can't believe this thread only has two posts since June 1st.This is one of the best WRs in the league with Top 5 potential, maybe even Top 3.I'm projecting career bests in each major WR stat category, maybe except TDs because of a healthy Turner.100 catches, 1400 yards, 9-12 TDs.The guy gets his targets. What else do you want.
catches
 
Kool-Aid Larry said:
Can't believe this thread only has two posts since June 1st.This is one of the best WRs in the league with Top 5 potential, maybe even Top 3.I'm projecting career bests in each major WR stat category, maybe except TDs because of a healthy Turner.100 catches, 1400 yards, 9-12 TDs.The guy gets his targets. What else do you want.
catches
Ill give you that... Ive seen roddy make some GEMS of a catch, and then drop one right in the numbers.This aside, the kid has been pulling it together in a pretty potent offense. I stand by my prediction
 
this is kind of illustrative of a larger point --- how important are targets.

some guys waste a ton of targets (general or rz) by not catching the ball, so do you like to see a ton of untapped targets thinking the targets will remain steady while the guy's bound to catch more, or do you just figure he'll waste them every year?

conversely, what if a guy is incredibly efficient in his targets --- do you downgrade him thinking he won't repeat the efficiency, or credit him for his utilization?

I think roddy caught something like 50% last year -- that blows on par with braylon edwards.

 
I have White ranked as my #3 WR. I think he is the surest bet to finish as a top 10 WR of anyone outside of Andre Johnson and Randy Moss.

Projections: 84 catches, 1225 yards, 10 tds

 
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