Last year, the Falcons attempted 451 passes, and the WRs caught 118. Here was the breakdown:
+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name | G | RSH YARD AVG TD | REC YARD AVG TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Romby Bryant | 3 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 || Brian Finneran | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 50 611 12.2 2 || Michael Jenkins | 14 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 36 508 14.1 3 || Jerome Pathon | 8 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 1 18 18.0 0 || Dez White | 6 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 2 25 12.5 1 || Roddy White | 16 | 4 12 3.0 0 | 29 446 15.4 3 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+Who here thinks Finneran will catch 50 again? I don't. In 2004, he was the #3 receiver with 23 catches, though he did also miss 4 games.Consider targets. Last season, here were the WR targets:
Finneran 81
Jenkins 71
Roddy 68
Dez 10
Pathon 3
Roddy White had only 29 catches last season, but he was targeted often. Clearly he was raw last season, and has potential for significant improvement this season. That could lead both to catching more of his targets and to being targeted more frequently.
I could easily see White adding one catch per game, even if WR catches don't increase. That would leave Jenkins & Finneran to split the the other 70 from this trio last year. This would push him to 45 catches. If he maintains his ypc and TD % averages, that would give him a statline like this: 45/693/5
Last year, that would have ranked as WR37. I think that qualifies as sleeper material... FBG says his current ADP is WR57.
Now, is that the ceiling, either for White or this passing game? No. Add 50 more plays as was discussed earlier and call 20 of them passing plays, which would give Atlanta 471 passing attempts. WRs have caught ~26% of Atlanta's passes over the past two years, so that means a few more catches for the WRs. If White is the leading receiver, that could give him a few more catches.
More importantly, is it possible for the WRs to get more passes this season? I think so. In 2002, Vick's best passing year, WRs caught 28.6% of Atlanta's 479 passing attempts. Entering his third year with the same coaching staff & offense, I could see Vick's confidence as improved, plus he is healthy unlike last year. So I could see him looking downfield more. If the WRs could catch 28.6% of 471 passes instead of 26%, that is 135 catches for the WRs, 17 more than last year. Again assuming White is the #1, or at least co-#1, that could be 7-10 more catches for him over the numbers I showed earlier. That could get him to 55/847/6... WR28 last year.
Finally, consider his splits from last season:
First 8 games: 8/94/0 receiving, with 23 targets
Last 8 games: 21/352/3, with 45 targets
If he was able to carry his second half performance forward to this year and maintain it all season, that would be 90 targets and 42/704/6, which last season would have ranked as WR35.
Looks to me like there is a reasonable chance for White to end up in the WR30-W40 range, and he is currently being drafted far below that. Hence, he would seem to be a good value.