Ronnie and Ricky: 2010 and beyond. (1 Viewer)

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

Miami homers, I haven't heard or read a lot of discussion on what to expect from Miami's running game this year and beyond with regard to fantasy purposes. I'm curious why the Dolphins didn't take a flyer on RB somewhere in the draft considering their situation the next year or two. Brown hasn't signed his RFA tender, but apparently showed up looking good at OTAs recently even though he wasn't expected to be ready for camp, even. We all know what he's capable of until his next injury.

Ricky on the other hand showed flashes of 2002 last season, but what do you think he'll do this year? Didn't he say he was retiring after 2010? Does Miami keep Ronnie or do they move on next year?

Will this be a RBBC in 2010, or are they going to let Ricky run until Brown is 100%?

As a side note, this article:

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2010/...ly-six-pack-run

...is interesting regarding RW's interview. One quote that disturbed me is, "Having said that Ricky has many flaws and is certainly not innocent in his inability to stay clean, but looking at Williams numbers especially if he plays another two solid seasons we could be witnessing one of the strangest journeys ever taken by a player to Canton, Ohio."

Is Mineo serious? Is RW really 2 solid seasons from being a HOF consideration? I say no way in hell, but maybe I'm way off in my thinking.

 

[David Yudkin]

If by "solid" he means two more years of Williams circa 2002, then sure he'd be a candidate. But I don't see that happening as a 33 year old non-featured back.

 

[az_prof]

I have to say that I was surprised Miami didn't draft a HB this year. The reality is that in 2010 it is going to be the Ronnie and Ricky show again, and although I think the team will pass more to the WRs, still, I see no reason why the two won't do similar to what they have done the past two years.

Beyond 2010, it sounds like Ricky is thinking about retirement. If he is thinking about it now in the off season then I think it is pretty likely. I also expect Ronnie to be gone after 2010. If he manages to stay healthy and has a great season he will want a bigger pay day than Miami is going to want to pay for a guy who will be 29 next year. So he will go somewhere else if he has a great year and is healthy. If he gets hurt again, I see Ronnie retiring too.

So, last year for Ricky. Maybe the last year for Ronnie. Both should have between 750-1100 yards in 2010. I think if healthy Ronnie gets the 60% of the 60/40 breakdown.

 

[=Smackdown=]

Reasons they didn't draft a RB this year . . .

Ronnie Brown - RW was quoted that Ronnie beat him in a wind sprint not too long ago. Sounds liek he's ahead of schedule

Ricky Williams - Doubt he's retiring after 2010 - he just hired an agent and has mentioned that he is interested in playing beyond 2010.

Patrick Cobbs - also coming off injury but the Dolphins really like this guy - can do it all

Lex Hilliard

Korey Sheets

Can definitely see them drafting a RB next year though

 

[grateful zed]

Reasons they didn't draft a RB this year . . .

Ronnie Brown - RW was quoted that Ronnie beat him in a wind sprint not too long ago. Sounds liek he's ahead of schedule

Ricky Williams - Doubt he's retiring after 2010 - he just hired an agent and has mentioned that he is interested in playing beyond 2010.

Patrick Cobbs - also coming off injury but the Dolphins really like this guy - can do it all

Lex Hilliard

Korey Sheets

Can definitely see them drafting a RB next year though

GO GRIZ !!!

 

[Andrew Garda]

I think MIA is hoping Brown can stay healthy and productive but he's lost a chunk of two seasons to being hurt and been nicked up every other season. He's on a tender now and isn't happy.

I'd say this is his year to stay healthy and prove himself worth another long term investment. RW might play a few more years and Hilliard/Cobbs is intriguing but I don't see a lot of long term security at the position if Ronnie can't play and be healthy.

I think you're looking a pretty good split here, with Brown getting more carries if healthy and receptions for both guys.

 

[=Smackdown=]

He's on a tender now and isn't happy.

Link?

 

[finito]

There is no way Ricky Williams is a HOF candidate IMO. I don't care what he does for the next couple of seasons.

 

[Andrew Garda]

He's on a tender now and isn't happy.

Link?

From the FBG news feed:

Dolphins | Ronnie Brown still has not signed tender Wed Apr 28, 10:36 AM

Armando Salguero, of the Miami Herald, reports Miami Dolphins restricted free-agent RB Ronnie Brown has yet to sign his tender. Brown would like a long-term deal but that does not seem imminent because the Dolphins don't really have to offer one

The link to the story is here - he wants along term contract, will not get one. I've heard a few things from beat reporters on twitter that he's not excited about that but it's not a stretch to infer he isn't based on the fact he hasn't bothered to sign his tender yet.

 

[Adebisi]

There is no way Ricky Williams is a HOF candidate IMO. I don't care what he does for the next couple of seasons.

But this is the Shark Pool, where everyone's a HOFer!

 

[ookook]

I do care what he does the next few seasons, but think it very unlikely he will do enough to merit any consideration.

His past does not exclude him in my opinion.

But he would have to play for quite a few more seasons and move to be a featured back on another team, and as I said I think that highly unlikely.

Say he went to Cleveland or somewhere are was a stud for 4 to 5 seasons...not happening.

 

[CalBear]

Rasta is #31 on the rushing yardage list, #36 on the rushing TD list. Lots of non-HOF backs are ahead of him. I think to get any consideration (given that he's really only had one excellent season), he'd have to have big numbers in both of those areas. He'd need to get ahead of a number of contemporary HOF backs. That probably means passing Marshall Faulk, which would mean 3000 more rushing yards and 38 more TDs. That would at least get him into the conversation. That means three more seasons like 2009 or slightly better.

Silly to think about it.

 

[cstu]

Ricky Williams - Doubt he's retiring after 2010 - he just hired an agent and has mentioned that he is interested in playing beyond 2010.

Ricky threw away a lot of money in his career so I expect him to hang on as long as possible to get paid. If he can run he'll keep playing.

 

[cstu]

** Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown was back on the practice field yesterday. It was surprising news considering we weren’t even sure he’d be ready for training camp in a couple months as he rehabs from last year’s Lisfranc fracture. But Brown was also reportedly "limping noticeably" during team drills. Not surprisingly, Brown isn’t at 100% yet. We’ll continue to monitor his progress leading up to Week 1.

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

** Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown was back on the practice field yesterday. It was surprising news considering we weren’t even sure he’d be ready for training camp in a couple months as he rehabs from last year’s Lisfranc fracture. But Brown was also reportedly "limping noticeably" during team drills. Not surprisingly, Brown isn’t at 100% yet. We’ll continue to monitor his progress leading up to Week 1.

3.5 months is a lot of time left to recover, and it's amazing he was even participating.

 

[jude]

Both are going to be high-risks this year. Ricky for his age, Ronnie for his injuries. Combined, they can be good for a real team but I don't see either one providing a season's worth of first round production like we got last year. I'm staying away unless the price is extremely right.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Both are going to be high-risks this year. Ricky for his age, Ronnie for his injuries. Combined, they can be good for a real team but I don't see either one providing a season's worth of first round production like we got last year. I'm staying away unless the price is extremely right.

Their risk is what makes them a great pair to own. As others have pointed out, prior to Brown's injury, Brown was 10th and Ricky was 12th. After the injury, Ricky was a top 5 RB. If they are healthy, there isn't any reason they shouldn't produce like the 1st half of last year. Their OL isn't any worse and they actually have passing game threat this year. If one of them is not healthy, then you likely end up with a top 5 RB.

 

[CalBear]

Both are going to be high-risks this year. Ricky for his age, Ronnie for his injuries. Combined, they can be good for a real team but I don't see either one providing a season's worth of first round production like we got last year. I'm staying away unless the price is extremely right.

Their risk is what makes them a great pair to own. As others have pointed out, prior to Brown's injury, Brown was 10th and Ricky was 12th. After the injury, Ricky was a top 5 RB. If they are healthy, there isn't any reason they shouldn't produce like the 1st half of last year. Their OL isn't any worse and they actually have passing game threat this year. If one of them is not healthy, then you likely end up with a top 5 RB.

I think expecting either of these guys to be a top-5 RB is wildly optimistic, regardless of their situation. Ricky hardly tore it up in his 7 starts; he had 634 total yards and 6 TDs, which is #9 in the league over that time period (not top 5). And he got weaker as the season went on, finishing up with 10/35 and 12/31 rushing in two losses in games that could have put the Dolphins in the playoffs.Also, Miami was #26 in the league in pass attempts in the first half of the season, and #2 in the league in pass attempts in the second half. In rushing attempts they dropped from #3 to #9 in the second half. The improved passing game (Henne improvement plus addition of Marshall) will result in fewer rushing attempts. Neither of these guys is a great receiving RB, either.

With the team using the wildcat less often, Brown coming off a serious injury, and Williams turning 33 tomorrow (happy birthday, Rasta!), I don't see either of these guys topping 250 carries. One of them might make the top 10, but this looks like RBBC with the overall role of the running game reduced.

Best bet is probably to get the cheaper RB late as an RB4 with RB2 potential if there's an injury.

 

[QUEZILLA]

I think as long as he is doing yoga he should have 5 more good seasons.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Also, Miami was #26 in the league in pass attempts in the first half of the season, and #2 in the league in pass attempts in the second half. In rushing attempts they dropped from #3 to #9 in the second half. The improved passing game (Henne improvement plus addition of Marshall) will result in fewer rushing attempts. Neither of these guys is a great receiving RB, either.

With the team using the wildcat less often, Brown coming off a serious injury, and Williams turning 33 tomorrow (happy birthday, Rasta!), I don't see either of these guys topping 250 carries. One of them might make the top 10, but this looks like RBBC with the overall role of the running game reduced.

Best bet is probably to get the cheaper RB late as an RB4 with RB2 potential if there's an injury.

Regarding the #2 in passing attempts in the 2nd half: That number is skewed by the three games out of the final 5 in which Henne attempted 46, 52, and 55 passes. I'm guessing Miami isn't going to want to come close to that number with any regularity.Miami can run the ball. They may well run less this year, but they will run plenty. I also think both Ronnie and Ricky are perfectly capable receivers and will be involved in the passing game. I think less use of the wildcat will give them a few more targets. They won't combine for 100 catches or anything, but should get 50+ combined, with upside.

I agree that we are looking at RBBC, but I really like the Miami RB if one guy totes the load due to injury to the other guy. Ricky finished weakly, but in week 16 Miami fell behind and had to pass all day, and in week 17 they played Pittsburg, and not many can run on Pitt. From weeks 11 through 15 Ricky did quite well.

It will be interesting to see where they go in drafts... if you can get Ronnie at a reasonable cost, Miami is a high upside situation for a RB. If you lock them both up, you likely have at least one RB2... I don't think it will cost that much to do.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Both are going to be high-risks this year. Ricky for his age, Ronnie for his injuries. Combined, they can be good for a real team but I don't see either one providing a season's worth of first round production like we got last year. I'm staying away unless the price is extremely right.

Their risk is what makes them a great pair to own. As others have pointed out, prior to Brown's injury, Brown was 10th and Ricky was 12th. After the injury, Ricky was a top 5 RB. If they are healthy, there isn't any reason they shouldn't produce like the 1st half of last year. Their OL isn't any worse and they actually have passing game threat this year. If one of them is not healthy, then you likely end up with a top 5 RB.

I think expecting either of these guys to be a top-5 RB is wildly optimistic, regardless of their situation. Ricky hardly tore it up in his 7 starts; he had 634 total yards and 6 TDs, which is #9 in the league over that time period (not top 5). And he got weaker as the season went on, finishing up with 10/35 and 12/31 rushing in two losses in games that could have put the Dolphins in the playoffs.

Brown got hurt week 10 so I used weeks 11-16, the weeks that Ricky was the sole RB. He was 4th.If one were injured, the other is no longer in a RBBC and benefits from one of the better OL in the league. Top 5, in that situation, is not out of the question.

Also, Miami was #26 in the league in pass attempts in the first half of the season, and #2 in the league in pass attempts in the second half. In rushing attempts they dropped from #3 to #9 in the second half. The improved passing game (Henne improvement plus addition of Marshall) will result in fewer rushing attempts. Neither of these guys is a great receiving RB, either.

They had fewer team rushing attempts because they lost a RB and were forced to throw. A better passing attack may lead to slightly fewer rushing attempts but it should also lead to more productive rushing attempts.

With the team using the wildcat less often, Brown coming off a serious injury, and Williams turning 33 tomorrow (happy birthday, Rasta!), I don't see either of these guys topping 250 carries. One of them might make the top 10, but this looks like RBBC with the overall role of the running game reduced.

Best bet is probably to get the cheaper RB late as an RB4 with RB2 potential if there's an injury.

Neither topped 250 last year either, yet Ricky finished 7th. Through week 9, Brown was on pace for 270 carries and a 9th place finish, despite being in an RBBC. At the same time, Williams was on pace for 170 and an 11th place finish. Through week 9.The point is that the Miami offense can produce a top 10 RB, even in a RBBC. And, the lesser of the two in a RBBC can be a RB2. The bonus is that if one gets hurt, the other is no longer in a RBBC and receives almost all of the carries. That situation can't be found in too many places. Carolina is one, but it's going to cost a lot more. DWill and Stewart (total of 372.1 FP last year), will cost about a 7th and 21st pick right now in a redraft. Brown and Ricky (total of 342.2), about a 47th and 49th. Which is a better value?

They're both cheap. Best bet is to get them both.

 

[CalBear]

Brown got hurt week 10 so I used weeks 11-16, the weeks that Ricky was the sole RB. He was 4th.

If one were injured, the other is no longer in a RBBC and benefits from one of the better OL in the league. Top 5, in that situation, is not out of the question.

I don't see why you wouldn't include week 17, when Ricky started and went 12/31/0 with 3 catches for 4 yards. Top 5 is not out of the question--it's just very, very unlikely.

They had fewer team rushing attempts because they lost a RB and were forced to throw. A better passing attack may lead to slightly fewer rushing attempts but it should also lead to more productive rushing attempts.

I think it is unlikely that they will have 509 rushing attempts (#3 in the league in 2009), or that they'll average 4.4 yards/attempt (#10) with an injured Brown and an aging Williams. It is also very unlikely that they'll lead the league in rushing TDs as they did in 2009. So I don't see the rushing attempts being more productive in 2010. They also led the league in plays from scrimmage in 2009, which is unlikely to repeat, and that was required for them to put up numbers, since they were #23 in yards per offensive play.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

RUN RICKY RUN!!!

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Brown got hurt week 10 so I used weeks 11-16, the weeks that Ricky was the sole RB. He was 4th.

If one were injured, the other is no longer in a RBBC and benefits from one of the better OL in the league. Top 5, in that situation, is not out of the question.

I don't see why you wouldn't include week 17, when Ricky started and went 12/31/0 with 3 catches for 4 yards. Top 5 is not out of the question--it's just very, very unlikely.

I guess it's just out of habit to exclude week 17 when discussing fantasy stats.

They had fewer team rushing attempts because they lost a RB and were forced to throw. A better passing attack may lead to slightly fewer rushing attempts but it should also lead to more productive rushing attempts.

I think it is unlikely that they will have 509 rushing attempts (#3 in the league in 2009), or that they'll average 4.4 yards/attempt (#10) with an injured Brown and an aging Williams. It is also very unlikely that they'll lead the league in rushing TDs as they did in 2009. So I don't see the rushing attempts being more productive in 2010. They also led the league in plays from scrimmage in 2009, which is unlikely to repeat, and that was required for them to put up numbers, since they were #23 in yards per offensive play.

It looks like you're just applying a blanket regression to the mean without any fundamental reasons. With a threat of a passing attack, why wouldn't they average 4.4 ypa again (or even more)? They don't need to lead the league in rushing TDs but why wouldn't you expect them to finish near the top again? Of the top ten last year, 8 of them were in the top ten in 2008. 22 TDs is not an unusually high number of TDs. Of the 7 teams who had 20 or more in 2008, all but Atlanta had at least 18 in 2009 (and Atlanta likely would have joined the others had Turner not been hurt). With a more experienced Henne and a top WR, why wouldn't you expect that to help the rushing attack and make it more productive?

 

[CalBear]

I don't see why you wouldn't include week 17, when Ricky started and went 12/31/0 with 3 catches for 4 yards. Top 5 is not out of the question--it's just very, very unlikely.

I guess it's just out of habit to exclude week 17 when discussing fantasy stats.

We're discussing how Ricky Williams performed as a starter. He didn't know your fantasy team 's super bowl was in week 16.

I think it is unlikely that they will have 509 rushing attempts (#3 in the league in 2009), or that they'll average 4.4 yards/attempt (#10) with an injured Brown and an aging Williams. It is also very unlikely that they'll lead the league in rushing TDs as they did in 2009. So I don't see the rushing attempts being more productive in 2010. They also led the league in plays from scrimmage in 2009, which is unlikely to repeat, and that was required for them to put up numbers, since they were #23 in yards per offensive play.

It looks like you're just applying a blanket regression to the mean without any fundamental reasons. With a threat of a passing attack, why wouldn't they average 4.4 ypa again (or even more)? They don't need to lead the league in rushing TDs but why wouldn't you expect them to finish near the top again? Of the top ten last year, 8 of them were in the top ten in 2008. 22 TDs is not an unusually high number of TDs. Of the 7 teams who had 20 or more in 2008, all but Atlanta had at least 18 in 2009 (and Atlanta likely would have joined the others had Turner not been hurt). With a more experienced Henne and a top WR, why wouldn't you expect that to help the rushing attack and make it more productive?

They won't average 4.4 ypa because one of their two lead backs is coming off a Lisfranc injury, and the other is 33 years old. Here's the complete set of 33-year-old RBs who've had 100+ carries and averaged 4.4 yards per carry in the Super Bowl era:<crickets>Marcus Allen is the only candidate who comes close; he had two 200-carry seasons with over 4 YPC in Kansas City. He didn't break 1000 yards in either of those seasons. How do you think Ricky Williams compares to Marcus Allen?Really the only possibility for a top-5 back in Miami is Ronnie Brown coming back fully healthy, with limited carries for Ricky. Neither of those things seems very likely.

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

Yes RW is 33, but is it age or is it mileage that wears these guys down? RW missed a few seasons, so one could argue he's still in his late 20's. 30 at most.

 

[CalBear]

Yes RW is 33, but is it age or is it mileage that wears these guys down? RW missed a few seasons, so one could argue he's still in his late 20's. 30 at most.

It's age; various studies have shown that. No 33-year-old RB of any mileage has averaged 4.4 ypc. In fact, as a starter in 2009 Ricky himself only had one game where he averaged 4.4 ypc--and that was his first game as a starter. 5.41, 4.26, 4.17, 3.86, 4.21, 3.50, 2.58. Looking at that trend, would you predict 4.4 ypc going forward?

 

[BuckeyeArt]

They won't average 4.4 ypa because one of their two lead backs is coming off a Lisfranc injury,

The reports all winter were that Brown was either on or ahead of schedule. Now, he has started practicing. Unless you have some reason to doubt his physicians, I think you have to assume he'll be healthy three and a half months from now.

and the other is 33 years old. Here's the complete set of 33-year-old RBs who've had 100+ carries and averaged 4.4 yards per carry in the Super Bowl era:<crickets>

You should probably start by listing all the 32 yo RBs who averaged 4.65 ypc.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Yes RW is 33, but is it age or is it mileage that wears these guys down? RW missed a few seasons, so one could argue he's still in his late 20's. 30 at most.

It's age; various studies have shown that. No 33-year-old RB of any mileage has averaged 4.4 ypc. In fact, as a starter in 2009 Ricky himself only had one game where he averaged 4.4 ypc--and that was his first game as a starter. 5.41, 4.26, 4.17, 3.86, 4.21, 3.50, 2.58. Looking at that trend, would you predict 4.4 ypc going forward?

Why would you only include his games as a starter? I thought your statement was about whether the team could average 4.4 ypc.Anyway, even as a starter, weeks 11 - 17, he averaged 4.26 ypc. If you include the game Brown got hurt and Ricky received 20 carries (certainly 'starter' carries), his average was 4.36 ypc.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

It's worth noting that football outsiders' statistics ranked Miami's offensive line 1st in adjusted line yards and in stuffs (lowest % of runs for negative or 0 yardage). They were also 2nd in power running. Some of that is due to wildcat and scheming, but some credit goes to the line. Due to the lisfranc injury, Ronnie Brown can be acquired pretty cheaply for a RB running behind an excellent line who projects to average at least 15 touches a game. Consider that he's not removed in short yardage or 3rd down situations, and we have plenty of reason for optimism.

 

[CalBear]

You should probably start by listing all the 32 yo RBs who averaged 4.65 ypc.

Two others before Ricky: Herschel Walker and James Brooks. They followed up with 4.1 and 3.8 ypc.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Yes RW is 33, but is it age or is it mileage that wears these guys down? RW missed a few seasons, so one could argue he's still in his late 20's. 30 at most.

It's age; various studies have shown that.

And even if it wasn't, he still has the mileage. Ricky Williams was run into the ground early on in Miami. He has 2,474 career touches (#30 all time) -- more than Clinton Portis, way more than Brian Westbrook.

 

[mbuehner]

You know what they say- 'It's the Hall of Fame. Not the Hall of I'm a base head that pissed away my most productive years smoking weed and exploring the Himalayas, playing in the CFL, and finally come back as a modestly decent part-time RB'.

 

[jude]

You know what they say- 'It's the Hall of Fame. Not the Hall of I'm a base head that pissed away my most productive years smoking weed and exploring the Himalayas, playing in the CFL, and finally come back as a modestly decent part-time RB'.

base head=smoking weed:fail