Ronnie Brown Compared to Mcgahee Last Year (1 Viewer)

[Bauer]

The last couple of years I have been burnt on taking running-backs based on their upside in the first round, rather than taking a consistent back such as Rudi Johnson. I took Mcgahee last year and was disappointed and this year I want a consist back that doesn't have alot of risk/reward to him. I was wondering if you think that Ronnie Brown could be this year's Willis Mcgahee, in that he disappoints everyone's expectations with his first year as a full starter. What do you think the chances are that Ronnie Brown is a dud this season?

 

[Sabertooth]

Tough to say. I'd say it's more like than

Shaun Alexander

Rudi Johnson

Larry Johnson

Clinton Portis

Ladainian Tomlinson

Tiki Barber

After that, it's anyone's guess. Those are about the safest picks and even those are like to have few dissapointments.

 

[sjdogs]

Not at all. BRown plays for a decent to good team that finished very strong. Everyone knew that WIllis and buffalo would suck last year and had a qb who would not keep defenses honest. I worry about Brown a bit and am struggling between taking him and jackson but i think this analogy is weak. Also Miami has a very easy run schedule this year.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I would not be the least bit surprised if Brown disappointed folks.

 

[Homey]

I was extremely high on Brown, but am now somewhat concerned to to the starting LG being out for 2-3 months.

 

[lionsroar]

I too am seriously on the fence with Brown this year. I have Jackson just ahead of Brown. I like both of there schedules this year..

 

[Bauer]

Tough to say. I'd say it's more like than Shaun AlexanderRudi JohnsonLarry JohnsonClinton PortisLadainian TomlinsonTiki BarberAfter that, it's anyone's guess. Those are about the safest picks and even those are like to have few dissapointments.

I agree with this however at picking at the 1.07 spot this year in a 10 team re-draft, I am going through the worse possible cases, and if all these players go in front of me, I have to choose between SJax, Brown, and Jordan in that order and I want the safest possible pick.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Is Caddy available there, or are you leaving him out?

 

[Bauer]

I am assuming Caddy will be there, but I see him as more of a risk(injury wise) than any of the player's I listed above.

 

[MLBrandow]

The last couple of years I have been burnt on taking running-backs based on their upside in the first round, rather than taking a consistent back such as Rudi Johnson. I took Mcgahee last year and was disappointed and this year I want a consist back that doesn't have alot of risk/reward to him. I was wondering if you think that Ronnie Brown could be this year's Willis Mcgahee, in that he disappoints everyone's expectations with his first year as a full starter. What do you think the chances are that Ronnie Brown is a dud this season?

I'd say they are pretty good. A lot of "new"s this year, and a lot of questions.That said, does he have any more risk than any other upside pick relative to his ADP? Not really.Is he more likely to bust? Perhaps.But he's also got a higher floor than a lot of these guys, presuming he can stay healthy.The guys picking Brown are obviously not worried about the risk factor, as I believe his ADP is something like 1.07 or so.That said, if you are one of the guys who makes picks based on what other people project and have not been analyzing the situation yourself, you are just asking to get burned by the next "pop pick" who busts.If I were you, I would be wary of taking an unproven back, given your recent unsuccessful history with unproven backs. The First round is not the round you want to play the high risk game.While it won't prevent you from winning your league by any means, it certainly makes it more difficult.Unless you can say with a real degree of certainty that he'll beat 1500/12, I'd take Rudi and be happy with your low-risk, high floor pick.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Is Caddy available there, or are you leaving him out?

I'm sure he's there, since he said he was picking 7th...However, I wouldn't even consider himm, personally. I have SJax, LaMont, and Ronnie a good ways ahead of Caddy. I'd easily draft Westy over him too in a PPR.

 

[Tau837]

Not at all. BRown plays for a decent to good team that finished very strong. Everyone knew that WIllis and buffalo would suck last year and had a qb who would not keep defenses honest. I worry about Brown a bit and am struggling between taking him and jackson but i think this analogy is weak. Also Miami has a very easy run schedule this year.

 

[Bauer]

Also, how much of Ronnie Brown's stock relies on how well CPep is able to come back from his injury?

 

[Chaka]

I think everyone knew the Bills would be a losing team last year and RBs on losing teams typically disappoint so McGahee's fall was not a huge shock.

If you believe Miami will be a winning team this season then don't hesitate on Brown.

Personally I think they are probably a .500 team but with a few lucky bounces they could win 10-11 games. So Brown should be a safe, though probably unspectacular, pick. On a good team I see him as a Rudi Johnson type runner with better hands, but why take Brown when you know that Rudi will give you 1,500 yards and 12 scores?

 

[goonsquad]

Not at all. BRown plays for a decent to good team that finished very strong. Everyone knew that WIllis and buffalo would suck last year and had a qb who would not keep defenses honest. I worry about Brown a bit and am struggling between taking him and jackson but i think this analogy is weak. Also Miami has a very easy run schedule this year.

If everybody knew this then McGahee wouldn't have been drafted in the top 5 - 10 last year. Granted, there were major questions at QB and WR, but nobody knew for sure how bad they'd be. In fact, most were even counting on Buffalo's D being a top squad, giving McGahee tons of 4Q carries while running out the clock. Didn't pan out on either side of the ball last year, but to say everybody knew they would suck so bad is 20/20 hindsight.And fact is there are significant questions about Brown and Miami this year. The chances that they'll implode like Buffalo last year may be slim, but it could happen. I think the comparison to McGahee has some validity.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Not at all. BRown plays for a decent to good team that finished very strong. Everyone knew that WIllis and buffalo would suck last year and had a qb who would not keep defenses honest. I worry about Brown a bit and am struggling between taking him and jackson but i think this analogy is weak. Also Miami has a very easy run schedule this year.

If everybody knew this then McGahee wouldn't have been drafted in the top 5 - 10 last year. Granted, there were major questions at QB and WR, but nobody knew for sure how bad they'd be. In fact, most were even counting on Buffalo's D being a top squad, giving McGahee tons of 4Q carries while running out the clock. Didn't pan out on either side of the ball last year, but to say everybody knew they would suck so bad is 20/20 hindsight.And fact is there are significant questions about Brown and Miami this year. The chances that they'll implode like Buffalo last year may be slim, but it could happen. I think the comparison to McGahee has some validity.

 

[Shiver44]

The Dolphins have a solid passing game, and a good O-Line. Something Willis McGahee didn't have last year.

 

[doomsdaydoc]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

 

[Pied Piper]

I think everyone knew the Bills would be a losing team last year and RBs on losing teams typically disappoint so McGahee's fall was not a huge shock.

If you believe Miami will be a winning team this season then don't hesitate on Brown.

Personally I think they are probably a .500 team but with a few lucky bounces they could win 10-11 games. So Brown should be a safe, though probably unspectacular, pick. On a good team I see him as a Rudi Johnson type runner with better hands, but why take Brown when you know that Rudi will give you 1,500 yards and 12 scores?

Curious to know why you think Miami is a .500 team this year.

 

[Homey]

The Dolphins have a solid passing game, and a good O-Line. Something Willis McGahee didn't have last year.

I was quite high on Brown for this reason (players and a proven o-line coach who has produced probowl RB one after another). I am concerned, however, with the neck injury to their starting guard Mckinney who is supposed to be out 2-3 months. Any new news on this and/or his replacement on the line???

 

[Chaka]

I think everyone knew the Bills would be a losing team last year and RBs on losing teams typically disappoint so McGahee's fall was not a huge shock.

If you believe Miami will be a winning team this season then don't hesitate on Brown.

Personally I think they are probably a .500 team but with a few lucky bounces they could win 10-11 games. So Brown should be a safe, though probably unspectacular, pick. On a good team I see him as a Rudi Johnson type runner with better hands, but why take Brown when you know that Rudi will give you 1,500 yards and 12 scores?

Curious to know why you think Miami is a .500 team this year.

Back in the day, i.e. 2-3 years ago, a player took 18 months to come back from an ACL injury now Daunte is coming back from ACL, MCL AND PCL replacement surgery in 10 months. He is in a relatively new system, though Saban says he is keeping elements of Linehan's system there is a different guy (Mularkey) calling the plays. I do not think Joey Harrington, learning a completely new system to him, is the answer if Daunte can't last the year. The offensive line is average at best. They have one good WR and Randy McMichael has never done anything past week 6 of any season. They also have nothing behind Ronnie Brown, who is still an unknown commodity when it comes to what kind of workload he can handle. The defense was solid but is another year older, plus Jason Taylor is nursing a back problem (and who knows what kind of impact his divorce from Zach Thomas' sister will have in the locker room)/Saban appears to be a solid coach but I am not convinced after one season. The six game win streak at the end of the season was nice but it doesn't mean squat 9 months later. There have been plenty of six game stretches of high productivity at the end of a season that have not materialized into anything the following year (Buffalo two years ago is a great example and on an individual level Kevin Jones and William Green come to mind).

Like I said, if they get a few lucky bounces they could be an 11 win team but I see a razor thin margin for error with this team, i.e. lots of games decided by 7 points or less.

 

[Padraig]

Have you seen their schedule? They get Buffalo and the Jets twice,Tenn,Houston,Green Bay,Chicago,Minnesota and Detroit. Plus they get Indy week 17,which should be a meaningless game for Indy where they rest Manning for the playoffs.

You really think 8 wins without lucky bounces??

 

[gump]

Saban appears to be a solid coach but I am not convinced after one season. The six game win streak at the end of the season was nice but it doesn't mean squat 9 months later. There have been plenty of six game stretches of high productivity at the end of a season that have not materialized into anything the following year

Solid analysis, but here is where I disagree. I think Saban and Gruden are the two coaches I would be choosing from if starting a new team. He won on every level, and he has the Belichek influence...and intense to a fault.

 

[Joe T]

Everyone knew that WIllis and buffalo would suck last year and had a qb who would not keep defenses honest.

Aaron Rudnicki down?

 

[Chaka]

Saban appears to be a solid coach but I am not convinced after one season. The six game win streak at the end of the season was nice but it doesn't mean squat 9 months later. There have been plenty of six game stretches of high productivity at the end of a season that have not materialized into anything the following year

Solid analysis, but here is where I disagree. I think Saban and Gruden are the two coaches I would be choosing from if starting a new team. He won on every level, and he has the Belichek influence...and intense to a fault.

He is definitely off to a good start but I am going to hold off on comparing him to a proven commodity like Gruden just yet. And coaching trees don't mean so much to me.

 

[Chaka]

Have you seen their schedule? They get Buffalo and the Jets twice,Tenn,Houston,Green Bay,Chicago,Minnesota and Detroit. Plus they get Indy week 17,which should be a meaningless game for Indy where they rest Manning for the playoffs.You really think 8 wins without lucky bounces??

It is a tricky business predicting SOS from one season to the next in todays NFL and to me Chicago, Minnesota, Houston and Detroit all look like much improved teams to me, and winning in Buffalo on Dec 17 is a tough proposition regardless of the perceived weakness of Buffalo.Like I said, I see lots of games decided by 7 points or less for this Miami team.

 

[chedha]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

The problem with that is, McGahee was suffering the same problem in 2004 with bledsoe at the helm, and finished the season as the #9 ranked fantasy back. The key with McGahee is having a strong defense that puts him on a short field. This increases his chances of scoring, which is really where his value lies.

 

[Chaka]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

The problem with that is, McGahee was suffering the same problem in 2004 with bledsoe at the helm, and finished the season as the #9 ranked fantasy back. The key with McGahee is having a strong defense that puts him on a short field. This increases his chances of scoring, which is really where his value lies.

RBs from losing teams are bad fantasy propositions.You have been warned.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

The problem with that is, McGahee was suffering the same problem in 2004 with bledsoe at the helm, and finished the season as the #9 ranked fantasy back. The key with McGahee is having a strong defense that puts him on a short field. This increases his chances of scoring, which is really where his value lies.

RBs from losing teams are bad fantasy propositions.You have been warned.

Please see...Domanick Davis

Lamont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Reuben Droughns

Brian Westbrook

Warrick Dunn

Chris Brown

Out of the top 24 RBs from the past year, 8 of them did not play for winning teams.

 

[Chaka]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

The problem with that is, McGahee was suffering the same problem in 2004 with bledsoe at the helm, and finished the season as the #9 ranked fantasy back. The key with McGahee is having a strong defense that puts him on a short field. This increases his chances of scoring, which is really where his value lies.

RBs from losing teams are bad fantasy propositions.You have been warned.

Please see...Domanick Davis

Lamont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Reuben Droughns

Brian Westbrook

Warrick Dunn

Chris Brown

Out of the top 24 RBs from the past year, 8 of them did not play for winning teams.

So 2/3 of the top running backs came from winning teams? Sounds like we are in agreement. Also in this scoring system (standard FBGI assume) how many of these guys were top 10? I see two (SJax and Lamont) so 80% of the top 10 came from winning teams. And how many were top 5? None that I see, so 100% of the top 5 came from winning teams.I didn't say that there are no good RBs on losing teams just that they are not good propositions fantasy wise, I will add to that and say "when compared to RBs from winning teams."

 

[goonsquad]

The Dolphins have a solid passing game, and a good O-Line. Something Willis McGahee didn't have last year.

That's the thing, you don't know the Dolphins will have a solid passing game. You are assuming they will, but there are some strong arguments to be made that maybe they will struggle. The o-line is average to questionable due to injury, Culpepper is coming back from major knee damage, and even before the knee last year C-Pep was terrible. Now he has a rebuilt knee and a new system to learn. And worst case if he re-injures the knee, you've got Joey Harrington sitting in the wings. That's not a guarentee for a successful passing game.

 

[flranger]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

The problem with that is, McGahee was suffering the same problem in 2004 with bledsoe at the helm, and finished the season as the #9 ranked fantasy back. The key with McGahee is having a strong defense that puts him on a short field. This increases his chances of scoring, which is really where his value lies.

RBs from losing teams are bad fantasy propositions.You have been warned.

Please see...Domanick Davis

Lamont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Reuben Droughns

Brian Westbrook

Warrick Dunn

Chris Brown

Out of the top 24 RBs from the past year, 8 of them did not play for winning teams.

No chiot Sherlock, that is true every year. There are only 32 teams in the league, 16 will generally have good records, 16 won't. I'd venture to say 8 of the top 24 will normally not play for winning teams.

 

[acefootball]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

The problem with that is, McGahee was suffering the same problem in 2004 with bledsoe at the helm, and finished the season as the #9 ranked fantasy back. The key with McGahee is having a strong defense that puts him on a short field. This increases his chances of scoring, which is really where his value lies.

RBs from losing teams are bad fantasy propositions.You have been warned.

Please see...Domanick Davis

Lamont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Reuben Droughns

Brian Westbrook

Warrick Dunn

Chris Brown

Out of the top 24 RBs from the past year, 8 of them did not play for winning teams.

No chiot Sherlock, that is true every year. There are only 32 teams in the league, 16 will generally have good records, 16 won't. I'd venture to say 8 of the top 24 will normally not play for winning teams.

 

[Tau837]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

The problem with that is, McGahee was suffering the same problem in 2004 with bledsoe at the helm, and finished the season as the #9 ranked fantasy back. The key with McGahee is having a strong defense that puts him on a short field. This increases his chances of scoring, which is really where his value lies.

RBs from losing teams are bad fantasy propositions.You have been warned.

Please see...Domanick Davis

Lamont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Reuben Droughns

Brian Westbrook

Warrick Dunn

Chris Brown

Out of the top 24 RBs from the past year, 8 of them did not play for winning teams.

No chiot Sherlock, that is true every year. There are only 32 teams in the league, 16 will generally have good records, 16 won't. I'd venture to say 8 of the top 24 will normally not play for winning teams.

 

[brakeyawself]

I think this comparison should end with the fact that McGahee is an injury risk at all times. Brown is not. Brown I believe will be one of the most solid, least injury risks at RB, reguardless of how well he preforms.

 

[goonsquad]

I think this comparison should end with the fact that McGahee is an injury risk at all times. Brown is not. Brown I believe will be one of the most solid, least injury risks at RB, reguardless of how well he preforms.

McGahee played all 16 games last year and had 353 touches (325 rush / 28 rec). Brown has never carried the full load in college or the pros. How can you make the claim that Willis is more of an injury risk this year than Brown?

 

[brakeyawself]

I think this comparison should end with the fact that McGahee is an injury risk at all times. Brown is not. Brown I believe will be one of the most solid, least injury risks at RB, reguardless of how well he preforms.

McGahee played all 16 games last year and had 353 touches (325 rush / 28 rec). Brown has never carried the full load in college or the pros. How can you make the claim that Willis is more of an injury risk this year than Brown?

Durability, is not injury. Brown has been knocked for possibly not having the durability to carry the full load. Meaning he might ware down. McGahee on the other hand I think is more of an injury risk. He had reconstructive knee surgery after the fiesta bowl in college. He tore his mcl and acl I believe. Im not totally informed about his pro injury history, however I know he had the dreaded Red Flag after the fiesta bowl. However, I cant say for sure Brown will be able to carry the load all season. But as far as INJURIES go, id rather have him.

 

[duaneok66]

I think everyone knew the Bills would be a losing team last year and RBs on losing teams typically disappoint so McGahee's fall was not a huge shock.

If you believe Miami will be a winning team this season then don't hesitate on Brown.

Personally I think they are probably a .500 team but with a few lucky bounces they could win 10-11 games. So Brown should be a safe, though probably unspectacular, pick. On a good team I see him as a Rudi Johnson type runner with better hands, but why take Brown when you know that Rudi will give you 1,500 yards and 12 scores?

Curious to know why you think Miami is a .500 team this year.

Back in the day, i.e. 2-3 years ago, a player took 18 months to come back from an ACL injury now Daunte is coming back from ACL, MCL AND PCL replacement surgery in 10 months. He is in a relatively new system, though Saban says he is keeping elements of Linehan's system there is a different guy (Mularkey) calling the plays. I do not think Joey Harrington, learning a completely new system to him, is the answer if Daunte can't last the year. The offensive line is average at best. They have one good WR and Randy McMichael has never done anything past week 6 of any season. They also have nothing behind Ronnie Brown, who is still an unknown commodity when it comes to what kind of workload he can handle. The defense was solid but is another year older, plus Jason Taylor is nursing a back problem (and who knows what kind of impact his divorce from Zach Thomas' sister will have in the locker room)/Saban appears to be a solid coach but I am not convinced after one season. The six game win streak at the end of the season was nice but it doesn't mean squat 9 months later. There have been plenty of six game stretches of high productivity at the end of a season that have not materialized into anything the following year (Buffalo two years ago is a great example and on an individual level Kevin Jones and William Green come to mind).

Like I said, if they get a few lucky bounces they could be an 11 win team but I see a razor thin margin for error with this team, i.e. lots of games decided by 7 points or less.

Daunte is NOT back yet . . . witness his VERY brief performance two nights ago . . .

 

[Chaka]

I think everyone knew the Bills would be a losing team last year and RBs on losing teams typically disappoint so McGahee's fall was not a huge shock.

If you believe Miami will be a winning team this season then don't hesitate on Brown.

Personally I think they are probably a .500 team but with a few lucky bounces they could win 10-11 games. So Brown should be a safe, though probably unspectacular, pick. On a good team I see him as a Rudi Johnson type runner with better hands, but why take Brown when you know that Rudi will give you 1,500 yards and 12 scores?

Curious to know why you think Miami is a .500 team this year.

Back in the day, i.e. 2-3 years ago, a player took 18 months to come back from an ACL injury now Daunte is coming back from ACL, MCL AND PCL replacement surgery in 10 months. He is in a relatively new system, though Saban says he is keeping elements of Linehan's system there is a different guy (Mularkey) calling the plays. I do not think Joey Harrington, learning a completely new system to him, is the answer if Daunte can't last the year. The offensive line is average at best. They have one good WR and Randy McMichael has never done anything past week 6 of any season. They also have nothing behind Ronnie Brown, who is still an unknown commodity when it comes to what kind of workload he can handle. The defense was solid but is another year older, plus Jason Taylor is nursing a back problem (and who knows what kind of impact his divorce from Zach Thomas' sister will have in the locker room)/Saban appears to be a solid coach but I am not convinced after one season. The six game win streak at the end of the season was nice but it doesn't mean squat 9 months later. There have been plenty of six game stretches of high productivity at the end of a season that have not materialized into anything the following year (Buffalo two years ago is a great example and on an individual level Kevin Jones and William Green come to mind).

Like I said, if they get a few lucky bounces they could be an 11 win team but I see a razor thin margin for error with this team, i.e. lots of games decided by 7 points or less.

Daunte is NOT back yet . . . witness his VERY brief performance two nights ago . . .

I don't reacall saying he was back. And I try not to evaluate players based on preseason. Preseason games are to filter out the NFL players from the UPS drivers.

 

[Synthesizer]

If you're a gambler who wants to take a chance at dominating your league, go with Ronnie. Might pay off, might not. If you're p**** who wants to play it safe with a boring plodder as your RB1, go with Rudi. He won't lose you any games but it's not like he'll win you any either.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Everyone knew that WIllis and buffalo would suck last year and had a qb who would not keep defenses honest.

Aaron Rudnicki down?

 

[tommyGunZ]

FYI, I'm picking 4th in both of my long time annual redrafts, and I'm STRONGLY considering Brown after the Portis injury.

 

[Raiders37]

I think everyone knew the Bills would be a losing team last year and RBs on losing teams typically disappoint so McGahee's fall was not a huge shock.

If you believe Miami will be a winning team this season then don't hesitate on Brown.

Personally I think they are probably a .500 team but with a few lucky bounces they could win 10-11 games. So Brown should be a safe, though probably unspectacular, pick. On a good team I see him as a Rudi Johnson type runner with better hands, but why take Brown when you know that Rudi will give you 1,500 yards and 12 scores?

Curious to know why you think Miami is a .500 team this year.

Back in the day, i.e. 2-3 years ago, a player took 18 months to come back from an ACL injury now Daunte is coming back from ACL, MCL AND PCL replacement surgery in 10 months. He is in a relatively new system, though Saban says he is keeping elements of Linehan's system there is a different guy (Mularkey) calling the plays. I do not think Joey Harrington, learning a completely new system to him, is the answer if Daunte can't last the year. The offensive line is average at best. They have one good WR and Randy McMichael has never done anything past week 6 of any season. They also have nothing behind Ronnie Brown, who is still an unknown commodity when it comes to what kind of workload he can handle. The defense was solid but is another year older, plus Jason Taylor is nursing a back problem (and who knows what kind of impact his divorce from Zach Thomas' sister will have in the locker room)/Saban appears to be a solid coach but I am not convinced after one season. The six game win streak at the end of the season was nice but it doesn't mean squat 9 months later. There have been plenty of six game stretches of high productivity at the end of a season that have not materialized into anything the following year (Buffalo two years ago is a great example and on an individual level Kevin Jones and William Green come to mind).

Like I said, if they get a few lucky bounces they could be an 11 win team but I see a razor thin margin for error with this team, i.e. lots of games decided by 7 points or less.

Daunte is NOT back yet . . . witness his VERY brief performance two nights ago . . .

I don't reacall saying he was back. And I try not to evaluate players based on preseason. Preseason games are to filter out the NFL players from the UPS drivers.

I might just have to disagree with that.In preseason, sometimes they look good, and sometimes they don't. Look at Andrew Walter last year, his rookie year. He looked awesome in preseason. Then look at him tonight, not so good. Preseason is pretty much for the fans, something for them to watch for the month or so before the "real" games start. The coaches watch too, don't get me wrong, but they pretty much know what they have already, and what the guys can do from other scenarios. Sometimes they look awesome, sometimes they suck. Ya just gotta just take it for what it's worth. No one will know much of anything for certain until maybe the 3rd week of the season... Ya might THINK you know for sure, but you won't, not until the season is underway. It's all speculation until then.

JMO.....

 

[TheLaw]

FYI, I'm picking 4th in both of my long time annual redrafts, and I'm STRONGLY considering Brown after the Portis injury.

### ####it Tommy, now I have to change my rankings.

 

[TheLaw]

The Dolphins have a solid passing game, and a good O-Line. Something Willis McGahee didn't have last year.

I was quite high on Brown for this reason (players and a proven o-line coach who has produced probowl RB one after another). I am concerned, however, with the neck injury to their starting guard Mckinney who is supposed to be out 2-3 months. Any new news on this and/or his replacement on the line???

anybody w/ the o-line info?

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I think the comparison is without validity. McGahee suffered from poor QB play and 8 men in the box. Brown will have a viable (potentially a star this season) QB and good receivers. He will not be running against 8 man fronts. Brown is in a great position to excel.

The problem with that is, McGahee was suffering the same problem in 2004 with bledsoe at the helm, and finished the season as the #9 ranked fantasy back. The key with McGahee is having a strong defense that puts him on a short field. This increases his chances of scoring, which is really where his value lies.

RBs from losing teams are bad fantasy propositions.You have been warned.

Please see...Domanick Davis

Lamont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Reuben Droughns

Brian Westbrook

Warrick Dunn

Chris Brown

Out of the top 24 RBs from the past year, 8 of them did not play for winning teams.

No chiot Sherlock, that is true every year. There are only 32 teams in the league, 16 will generally have good records, 16 won't. I'd venture to say 8 of the top 24 will normally not play for winning teams.

Whats your point? My point was that Top RBs can in fact come from losing teams. This was in response to the comment that RBs from bad teams are bad news.

 

[MLBrandow]

Whats your point? My point was that Top RBs can in fact come from losing teams. This was in response to the comment that RBs from bad teams are bad news.

Exceptions do not make rules. LJ barely squeaked into the top-10 because of his freakish 70 receptions last year.BUF isn't just sub-.500, they are terrible and quite possibly the worst team in the league.Why take the added risk without the tangible benefit?What separates McGahee from the rest of the backs that warrants him on the turn?You think he's going to run better against 9 man fronts this year than last year?

 

[The Jerk]

Not at all. BRown plays for a decent to good team that finished very strong. Everyone knew that WIllis and buffalo would suck last year and had a qb who would not keep defenses honest. I worry about Brown a bit and am struggling between taking him and jackson but i think this analogy is weak. Also Miami has a very easy run schedule this year.

If everybody knew this then McGahee wouldn't have been drafted in the top 5 - 10 last year. Granted, there were major questions at QB and WR, but nobody knew for sure how bad they'd be. In fact, most were even counting on Buffalo's D being a top squad, giving McGahee tons of 4Q carries while running out the clock. Didn't pan out on either side of the ball last year, but to say everybody knew they would suck so bad is 20/20 hindsight.And fact is there are significant questions about Brown and Miami this year. The chances that they'll implode like Buffalo last year may be slim, but it could happen. I think the comparison to McGahee has some validity.

Miami keeps being touted because of their strong finish to 2005. I'll give them credit for winning their final 6 games. It's an accomplishment any time a team wins 6 straight in the NFL. But just look a little deeper into the numbers...4 of the 6 wins were by a combined 9 points

4 of the 6 wins were over teams that finished 4-12 (three) and 5-11 (one)

one of the other wins was over the Patriots, who were decidedly not trying their hardest to win

That leaves a win at San Diego as the only significant accomplishment in that stretch. And even the Dolphins acknowledge the Chargers were likely looking ahead to their next game at Indy (LINKY LINK)

"Yeah, I think they were looking ahead," said free safety Yeremiah Bell, who forced a critical fumble by Drew Brees late in the game. "Getting a feeling from them, I don't think they really looked at us as competition. They looked like we were just going to come up here and roll over. But we're not going to do that."

None of this means the Dolphins cannot build off of their 2005 finish. It just shows yet again that media hype need not be based on deep analysis of the facts.

 

[tommyGunZ]

FYI, I'm picking 4th in both of my long time annual redrafts, and I'm STRONGLY considering Brown after the Portis injury.

### ####it Tommy, now I have to change my rankings.

solid. drop Stephen Jackson a couple notches also - he's the pick if it's not Brown.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

if Mike Mularkey is calling plays in Miami, I'd downgrade Ronnie Brown.

look for plenty of QB bootlegs and play action passes to the fullback from the 1-yard line.