Ronnie Brown (1 Viewer)

[Sweet Love]

Every year there are a couple of players, I just can't get a pulse on. It can be for various reasons, like new staff, coming back from an injury, etc., but even then we can look at past history with said coach or how a RB at an elite status came back the year folowing an ACL repair, etc. to make some type of projections on his performance in the coming season. Brown is now 18+ months removed from his ACL injury and obviously had a pretty good year in his bounce back year, so you would think he would he would progress as expected. Same RB stable, same coach and same QB...really very little has changed in Miami from last year. What is different is that last year Brown ran the Wildcat offense that Miami unveiled against the Pats and others tried to replicate. My question is with the drafting of Pat White (who many feel is a natural for the Wildcat), how will this affect his numbers? Will Brown run all, some or none of the Wildcat? His 5 TD game against the Pats was special, but will he have opportunities like that again this year, and if not, how will his numbers differ.

I think it is almost impossible to project numbers for him until we know how he will fit into the Wildcat equation. Is there a way to go back and pull out his Wildcat versus non-wildcat numbers? I would love to see a breakdown of what he did in one versus the other. How do you all see this situation shaking out?

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Every year there are a couple of players, I just can't get a pulse on. It can be for various reasons, like new staff, coming back from an injury, etc., but even then we can look at past history with said coach or how a RB at an elite status came back the year folowing an ACL repair, etc. to make some type of projections on his performance in the coming season. Brown is now 18+ months removed from his ACL injury and obviously had a pretty good year in his bounce back year, so you would think he would he would progress as expected. Same RB stable, same coach and same QB...really very little has changed in Miami from last year. What is different is that last year Brown ran the Wildcat offense that Miami unveiled against the Pats and others tried to replicate. My question is with the drafting of Pat White (who many feel is a natural for the Wildcat), how will this affect his numbers? Will Brown run all, some or none of the Wildcat? His 5 TD game against the Pats was special, but will he have opportunities like that again this year, and if not, how will his numbers differ.I think it is almost impossible to project numbers for him until we know how he will fit into the Wildcat equation. Is there a way to go back and pull out his Wildcat versus non-wildcat numbers? I would love to see a breakdown of what he did in one versus the other. How do you all see this situation shaking out?

Don't even look at last year. He's now 2 years removed from injury and looks to be in great shape in a contract year. 2009 imo will be Browns comming out party. Very undervalued.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Under

Tuna is molding that Oline into a top 5 unit. tryin to snag him this year as rb2 every chance I get

 

[Blackjacks]

If your glass is half empty you can think of Brown losing all his touches from last year from his spot in the wildcat offense due to the drafting of Pat White.

If your glass is half full you can see Ronnie getting all of Ricky's carries now in the wildcat offense

Personally, I think the wildcat is dead, it might raise it's head every great once in awhile but with the additions to the oline and having Pennington or a first time starting qb behind center I think Miami wants to be a heavy run first team this year. Reports out of Miami have Ronnie looking "outstanding" and Ricky, not so much. The only thing that scares me about Brown is his touches. If he gets alot of those and can hold up I see a bid season ahead of him. I think he is very undervalued right now in drafts and could be a huge asset to your team.

I do think Patrick Cobbs is the handcuff and not Ricky Williams this year.

I think he has top 5 ceiling and a top 15 floor (assuming healthy)

 

[evilempire]

I think Ronnie is primed for a big season ... in fact, I have him in my top 10 among RBs at the moment. He's completely healthy, and the Dolphins have made some upgrades to the line. I also wouldn't be shocked if Ricky Williams becomes merely a bit player this season.

He's being passed over in favor of unproven runners, so I would say he's definitely undervalued right now.

 

[Sea Bass]

From Rotoworld:

ESPN's K.C. Joyner noted that Dolphins C Jake Grove had a 90.6 win percentage at the point of attack on running plays last season.

The stat measures whether the opposing defender stuffs the hole or makes contact with the runner. Grove's rate, a significant improvement over Samson Satele's 79.5 percent, should help open holes for Ronnie Brown this season

 

[DrJamesAndrews Fan]

From Rotoworld:

ESPN's K.C. Joyner noted that Dolphins C Jake Grove had a 90.6 win percentage at the point of attack on running plays last season.

The stat measures whether the opposing defender stuffs the hole or makes contact with the runner. Grove's rate, a significant improvement over Samson Satele's 79.5 percent, should help open holes for Ronnie Brown this season

I believe the Dolphins schedule is significantly tougher this year. Just something to consider

 

[dwashington]

From Rotoworld:

ESPN's K.C. Joyner noted that Dolphins C Jake Grove had a 90.6 win percentage at the point of attack on running plays last season.

The stat measures whether the opposing defender stuffs the hole or makes contact with the runner. Grove's rate, a significant improvement over Samson Satele's 79.5 percent, should help open holes for Ronnie Brown this season

I believe the Dolphins schedule is significantly tougher this year. Just something to consider

Good point. What I can't understand is the footballguys strength of schedule rating for Miami weeks 14-16 is a 17+?? They are @ Jac, @Tenn, vs Texans.Superbowl would be nice, but 14 and 15 are tough.

 

[gregjcross]

If your glass is half empty you can think of Brown losing all his touches from last year from his spot in the wildcat offense due to the drafting of Pat White.If your glass is half full you can see Ronnie getting all of Ricky's carries now in the wildcat offense Personally, I think the wildcat is dead, it might raise it's head every great once in awhile but with the additions to the oline and having Pennington or a first time starting qb behind center I think Miami wants to be a heavy run first team this year. Reports out of Miami have Ronnie looking "outstanding" and Ricky, not so much. The only thing that scares me about Brown is his touches. If he gets alot of those and can hold up I see a bid season ahead of him. I think he is very undervalued right now in drafts and could be a huge asset to your team.I do think Patrick Cobbs is the handcuff and not Ricky Williams this year.I think he has top 5 ceiling and a top 15 floor (assuming healthy)

Every team wants to be "run heavy" so what is the evidence that Miami will be? Probably becase they dont have an all pro QB nor a great WR or TE people assume they will grind. I think Miami will be competitive this year but their schedule gets harder. I think we have to see if Sparano is truly interested in featuring one person in the backfield or if he likes the Swiss army approach from last year where even Patrick Cobbs was in on the action. No doubt Brown *can* do it. But will he be allowed to do it from week to week and series to series is the big question in my mind. I dont see teh Fins being dominant enough to control the ground the way the Panthers did last year. But i think they could be succesful and rush for 20 Tds combined.

 

[Jercules]

What's the general history of guys coming off torn ACLs? James came back, and was productive as a system back, but was never the same. Jamal Lewis tore both his ACLs, and rushed for 2000 yards later on. Is it realistic to think Brown could come in this year and look like he did before the injury 2 seasons ago, when he was a top 3 RB (albeit for only 7 games)? Even if he is "completely recovered," do we have ample past evidence to support the idea that he'll be a beast this year?

 

[simmonjm]

Im staying far away from Ronnie Brown this year. I think the Dolphins are going to struggle this year on both sides of the ball. Very reminescent of when Parcells first took over the Cowboys and got them in the playoffs with smoke and mirrors. The Cowboys got destroyed by the Panthers in the playoffs just like the Dolphins got crushed by the Ravens last year. The following year under Parcells the Cowboys went 6-10.

Ronnie Brown outside of his 4 td game last year was not a reliable #2 RB. I dont understand what has changed this year that will make Ronnie Brown a reliable #1 RB. FWIW I think the oline upgrades cancel out with the increased SOS. The wildcard in all of this is Mike Vick, if he can play and signs with the Fins then you could make a better case for Ronnie Brown.

 

[Birdie048]

Bear in mind I am a biased Ronnie Owner everywhere I play....

I see him as the 25+ touches a game RB who will see a variety of formations (Wildcat is just part of it). There might be some 2 RB sets also. Pennington is holding the job for Henne. Bess, Camarilo and company are just developing into above average WR group. Fasano was a high pick by Parcels in Dallas (2nd round). His history of talent discovery is hard to question.

I see Ronnie as a Top 5. He is undervalued as his ADP is #18 range. The changes in Miami are OL based. The "contract" year theory is also heavy on the calculations of his projections. He wants to prove he is the caliber of RB he was drafted to be (1.02 pick in 2005). He has a chip on his shoulder and has a solid work ethic. That to me says expectations are high.

 

[Blackjacks]

If your glass is half empty you can think of Brown losing all his touches from last year from his spot in the wildcat offense due to the drafting of Pat White.

If your glass is half full you can see Ronnie getting all of Ricky's carries now in the wildcat offense

Personally, I think the wildcat is dead, it might raise it's head every great once in awhile but with the additions to the oline and having Pennington or a first time starting qb behind center I think Miami wants to be a heavy run first team this year. Reports out of Miami have Ronnie looking "outstanding" and Ricky, not so much. The only thing that scares me about Brown is his touches. If he gets alot of those and can hold up I see a bid season ahead of him. I think he is very undervalued right now in drafts and could be a huge asset to your team.

I do think Patrick Cobbs is the handcuff and not Ricky Williams this year.

I think he has top 5 ceiling and a top 15 floor (assuming healthy)

Every team wants to be "run heavy" so what is the evidence that Miami will be? Probably becase they dont have an all pro QB nor a great WR or TE people assume they will grind. I think Miami will be competitive this year but their schedule gets harder. I think we have to see if Sparano is truly interested in featuring one person in the backfield or if he likes the Swiss army approach from last year where even Patrick Cobbs was in on the action. No doubt Brown *can* do it. But will he be allowed to do it from week to week and series to series is the big question in my mind.

I dont see teh Fins being dominant enough to control the ground the way the Panthers did last year. But i think they could be succesful and rush for 20 Tds combined.

I'd say adding Grove, going defense early in the draft and adding Pat White indicates that they aren't wanting to be in an aerial show. However, I do agree somewhat that during the offseason every coach say she wants to run more.

 

[Blackjacks]

Bear in mind I am a biased Ronnie Owner everywhere I play....I see him as the 25+ touches a game RB who will see a variety of formations (Wildcat is just part of it). There might be some 2 RB sets also. Pennington is holding the job for Henne. Bess, Camarilo and company are just developing into above average WR group. Fasano was a high pick by Parcels in Dallas (2nd round). His history of talent discovery is hard to question. I see Ronnie as a Top 5. He is undervalued as his ADP is #18 range. The changes in Miami are OL based. The "contract" year theory is also heavy on the calculations of his projections. He wants to prove he is the caliber of RB he was drafted to be (1.02 pick in 2005). He has a chip on his shoulder and has a solid work ethic. That to me says expectations are high.

I own him as well. I hope your right

 

[FFFIEND]

I am planning on targeting Brown in most of my leagues. I am pretty sure he will be mine in my auction leagues, but in the snake drafts we will just have to see how things shake out. I expect him to return in great form since he has had some separation between himself and his injury. His play last season was amazing and it is a feat rarely accomplished. Pat White is no real threat to Brown. He is the original NFL Wildcat. Brown will remain the team's go to guy. It is funny how Parcells always has good RBs around him...

Here is a little more on the ACL Injury. http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html A nice little Brown booster to make you feel warm and fuzzy about the Phins go-to-guy. I know it makes me excited about Brown's 2009 prospects.

 

[Sweet Love]

Bear in mind I am a biased Ronnie Owner everywhere I play....I see him as the 25+ touches a game RB who will see a variety of formations (Wildcat is just part of it). There might be some 2 RB sets also. Pennington is holding the job for Henne. Bess, Camarilo and company are just developing into above average WR group. Fasano was a high pick by Parcels in Dallas (2nd round). His history of talent discovery is hard to question. I see Ronnie as a Top 5. He is undervalued as his ADP is #18 range. The changes in Miami are OL based. The "contract" year theory is also heavy on the calculations of his projections. He wants to prove he is the caliber of RB he was drafted to be (1.02 pick in 2005). He has a chip on his shoulder and has a solid work ethic. That to me says expectations are high.

I actually think he can be a top 7-type guy, but the question is whether he will have the opportunity. If White gets the ball on the Wildcat, goes in and scores, they are done...no chance for RB to get his yards/TDs on that particular opportunity. Since it was a successful package last year, teams are going to be studying it heavily this offseason; but Miami may already be ahead of the curve again, by getting a guy who can run like a RB and throw like a QB to boot. I don't really question him mentally or physically at this point...I question his opportunities. It would not surprise me if he put up Dunn-type numbers (when he rolled with Alstott). RB may get more yards and TDs, but he has never been a TD monster and White and Ricky will certainly get their opportunities regardless of what Brown does between the 20s. 1500 total yards and 5 TDs is very good, but it puts him at a high-end RB2 in our league. Again, this is all assuming he does not get many Wildcat opportunities, but honestly, with White onboard, why would you put Brown back there?

 

[Routilla]

I would think opposing teams will play the run and take their chances with Pennington beating them through the air.

 

[Sea Bass]

The Wildcat, with the addition of Pat White, widens the field. With the addition of Jake Grove at Center, Brown may be able to break quick hitters up the gut.

 

[the 'boys]

If you had to pick between him and Knowshon Moreno in a Keeper League who would you take??

 

[FFFIEND]

If you had to pick between him and Knowshon Moreno in a Keeper League who would you take??

I think I would go for Moreno. Brown is going to be 28 this season and that doesn't leave a lot of time on his RB clock. I think Brown will be WAY better in 2009, but the long term outlook for Moreno has more upside IMO.

 

[tdmills]

I don't get all the man love for this guy.

In his four year career, he has had 1 season over 1,000 yards(1,008 in 06).

In his great stretch run of being a great RB early in 07 he put it up vs some very soft defenses(Jets, Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland were his big games).

28 when he begins the season....he has no great QB to keep defenses out of crowding the box.

Those are all not good signs.....I'm selling while all of this Lee Evans potential is still there.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I'm selling while all of this Lee Evans potential is still there.

I love this line. Still, if you're in an auction league he might go for cheap and I'd rather have him than other guys (Grant, Smith) who are ranked around where he is right now.

 

[Sweet Love]

I'm selling while all of this Lee Evans potential is still there.

I love this line. Still, if you're in an auction league he might go for cheap and I'd rather have him than other guys (Grant, Smith) who are ranked around where he is right now.

I was going to post the same thing...and couldn't agree more with the comparison. It doesn't mean that Lee Evans or Ronnie in Brown in this case could not be elite, but for some reason they have not achieved that status. I am not a "hater" and in both cases I believe it is due to lack of opportunity coupled by where their strengths lie, but either way we are left wanting.

 

[tdmills]

I'm selling while all of this Lee Evans potential is still there.

I love this line. Still, if you're in an auction league he might go for cheap and I'd rather have him than other guys (Grant, Smith) who are ranked around where he is right now.

I was going to post the same thing...and couldn't agree more with the comparison. It doesn't mean that Lee Evans or Ronnie in Brown in this case could not be elite, but for some reason they have not achieved that status. I am not a "hater" and in both cases I believe it is due to lack of opportunity coupled by where their strengths lie, but either way we are left wanting.

Very well done. Every year he seems like the sexy pick and in the end leaves you alone at the prom.

 

[two_dollars]

I don't get all the man love for this guy.

In his four year career, he has had 1 season over 1,000 yards(1,008 in 06).

In his great stretch run of being a great RB early in 07 he put it up vs some very soft defenses(Jets, Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland were his big games).

28 when he begins the season....he has no great QB to keep defenses out of crowding the box.

Those are all not good signs.....I'm selling while all of this Lee Evans potential is still there.

Umm.. Pennington was a top 10 QB last year.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

I don't get all the man love for this guy.

In his four year career, he has had 1 season over 1,000 yards(1,008 in 06).

In his great stretch run of being a great RB early in 07 he put it up vs some very soft defenses(Jets, Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland were his big games).

28 when he begins the season....he has no great QB to keep defenses out of crowding the box.

Those are all not good signs.....I'm selling while all of this Lee Evans potential is still there.

Umm.. Pennington was a top 10 QB last year.

Some people don't like to bother with facts.

 

[tdmills]

I don't get all the man love for this guy.

In his four year career, he has had 1 season over 1,000 yards(1,008 in 06).

In his great stretch run of being a great RB early in 07 he put it up vs some very soft defenses(Jets, Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland were his big games).

28 when he begins the season....he has no great QB to keep defenses out of crowding the box.

Those are all not good signs.....I'm selling while all of this Lee Evans potential is still there.

Umm.. Pennington was a top 10 QB last year.

Some people don't like to bother with facts.

Pennington has one of the weakest arms of any starting QB in the NFL. He doesn't scare opposing defenses with the long ball and yes they will crowd the LOS.

 

[FFFIEND]

I'm selling while all of this Lee Evans potential is still there.

I love this line. Still, if you're in an auction league he might go for cheap and I'd rather have him than other guys (Grant, Smith) who are ranked around where he is right now.

I was going to post the same thing...and couldn't agree more with the comparison. It doesn't mean that Lee Evans or Ronnie in Brown in this case could not be elite, but for some reason they have not achieved that status. I am not a "hater" and in both cases I believe it is due to lack of opportunity coupled by where their strengths lie, but either way we are left wanting.

Very well done. Every year he seems like the sexy pick and in the end leaves you alone at the prom.

Fair enough on Brown not producing all that much thus far. However, he doesn't need to be number 1 to outproduce his draft status. He just needs to have a solid season. I don't have a lot of long term faith in him, but I think his short term value is pretty solid for 2009. The Dolphins are going to run the ball and Brown has little competition to take away his carries. The fact that he is great in the Wildcat formation is just a really good bonus. There isn't a very long list of RBs who are going to get a workload like Brown will be getting. Working off FBG rankings I would rather have Brown than these guys that are all ranked above him:RB Brandon Jacobs - Splits too much time and is too darn bug to be an effective NFL RB over the long haul. Plus, Brown already chased him out of Auburn.

RB Brian Westbrook - The wheels are falling off this wagon.

RB Marion Barber - Barber will be splitting time with not 1 but 2 other backs!

HOWEVER, I might take Pierre Thomas ahead of Brown... but that is another post.

 

[Post Corner]

I am planning on targeting Brown in most of my leagues. I am pretty sure he will be mine in my auction leagues, but in the snake drafts we will just have to see how things shake out. I expect him to return in great form since he has had some separation between himself and his injury. His play last season was amazing and it is a feat rarely accomplished. Pat White is no real threat to Brown. He is the original NFL Wildcat. Brown will remain the team's go to guy. It is funny how Parcells always has good RBs around him...

Here is a little more on the ACL Injury. http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html A nice little Brown booster to make you feel warm and fuzzy about the Phins go-to-guy. I know it makes me excited about Brown's 2009 prospects.

I think Brown is setup to have a HUGE year. I am liking that Ronnie Brown Kool Aid!!

 

[Tanner9919]

From Rotoworld:

ESPN's K.C. Joyner noted that Dolphins C Jake Grove had a 90.6 win percentage at the point of attack on running plays last season.

The stat measures whether the opposing defender stuffs the hole or makes contact with the runner. Grove's rate, a significant improvement over Samson Satele's 79.5 percent, should help open holes for Ronnie Brown this season

I believe the Dolphins schedule is significantly tougher this year. Just something to consider

Good point. What I can't understand is the footballguys strength of schedule rating for Miami weeks 14-16 is a 17+?? They are @ Jac, @Tenn, vs Texans.Superbowl would be nice, but 14 and 15 are tough.

I dunno, Jax wasn't a 'great' defense last season, and the 2009 Titans' defense won't look anything like the 2008 version, sans Haynesworth..they'll probably drop quite a few spots..Brown is primed for a breakout year.Parcells was playing head-games with the fake attempt to trade Brown in the off-season..

everywhere Parcells has gone, a great running game has followed..Miami is no different..Brown should get at least 300 carries this season..Ricky is quickly approaching the end of the road, so he'll be nothing more than a spot player..

 

[tdmills]

From Rotoworld:

ESPN's K.C. Joyner noted that Dolphins C Jake Grove had a 90.6 win percentage at the point of attack on running plays last season.

The stat measures whether the opposing defender stuffs the hole or makes contact with the runner. Grove's rate, a significant improvement over Samson Satele's 79.5 percent, should help open holes for Ronnie Brown this season

I believe the Dolphins schedule is significantly tougher this year. Just something to consider

Good point. What I can't understand is the footballguys strength of schedule rating for Miami weeks 14-16 is a 17+?? They are @ Jac, @Tenn, vs Texans.Superbowl would be nice, but 14 and 15 are tough.

I dunno, Jax wasn't a 'great' defense last season, and the 2009 Titans' defense won't look anything like the 2008 version, sans Haynesworth..they'll probably drop quite a few spots..Brown is primed for a breakout year.Parcells was playing head-games with the fake attempt to trade Brown in the off-season..

everywhere Parcells has gone, a great running game has followed..Miami is no different..Brown should get at least 300 carries this season..Ricky is quickly approaching the end of the road, so he'll be nothing more than a spot player..

Parcells isn't the coach....why do people keep saying his name? He makes personel decisions.....not X's and O's.

 

[iSnitch]

Why will this year be so different than last, when they used rbbc? I get that Brown should be fully healthy, but that doesn't mean they'll automatically start giving him every carry...

Has the coach even said he's going to run Ronnie into the ground?

 

[gorf]

i don't see pat white being a factor this year. he'll be the emergency QB, and won't see any game action unless there's an injury to one of the guys in front of him and he goes into a game as the #2 QB. if that's the case, he might see some wildcat touches, but if he's the #3 QB he never sees the field.

i'm not sure about ronnie brown's chances this year, but i wouldn't downgrade him based on pat white taking his wildcat opportunities.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Why will this year be so different than last, when they used rbbc? I get that Brown should be fully healthy, but that doesn't mean they'll automatically start giving him every carry...

Has the coach even said he's going to run Ronnie into the ground?

Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano said RB Ronnie Brown does not have any restrictions on the field and the team doesn't have to worry about him getting through practice like they did last year when he was recovering from a severe knee injury. He noted Brown can receive the number of plays they feel he needs. David J. Neal, of The Miami Herald, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown is in great shape and has looked explosive during offseason workouts. "As far as shape goes, he's outstanding right now," head coach Tony Sparano said. "That sounds like a company line, but I mean it. In the weight room the guy is super right now. He weighs 230 pounds, he's running better, he is stronger, so all of those things from a progress standpoint I see as positives."

Sounds like he will give Brown every carry he wants. Brown is in a contract year with an opt out clause so you can bet he's going to want every carry. So yeah it's like they will automatically give him every carry.

Also note the Dolphins O-line should be much improved with the additions and Long in year 2.

 

[FFFIEND]

Parcells isn't the coach....why do people keep saying his name? He makes personel decisions.....not X's and O's.

I think this is because there isn't a long history of head coaching experience for this Tony Soprano.Thus, people are using the long history of Parcells to give some insight as to wow Sparano might coach.

 

[Fantaholic]

Undervalued.

Very likely to finish top 10. Very unlikely to be picked top 10 or 15 in my leagues anyway.

My strongest reasons for this are the fact that he is a player fully recovered from knee surgery with "getting paid" on his mind. The shelf life of pro Rb's is short. He needs to cash in sooner rather than later. Contract year's are huge. The previously stated reasons of an improved OL and Parcell's tendency to pound the ball help as well. I'm a fan, and I never was before.

 

[seabronc]

i don't see pat white being a factor this year. he'll be the emergency QB, and won't see any game action unless there's an injury to one of the guys in front of him and he goes into a game as the #2 QB. if that's the case, he might see some wildcat touches, but if he's the #3 QB he never sees the field.i'm not sure about ronnie brown's chances this year, but i wouldn't downgrade him based on pat white taking his wildcat opportunities.

Do you have a source to back this up? I've been wondering about how Miami will juggle QBs and I don't know that it's a sure thing White will be the emergency. Without having heard anything, I could just as easily see Henne being the #3--- or is there any talk of making all three active?

 

[gorf]

i don't see pat white being a factor this year. he'll be the emergency QB, and won't see any game action unless there's an injury to one of the guys in front of him and he goes into a game as the #2 QB. if that's the case, he might see some wildcat touches, but if he's the #3 QB he never sees the field.i'm not sure about ronnie brown's chances this year, but i wouldn't downgrade him based on pat white taking his wildcat opportunities.

Do you have a source to back this up? I've been wondering about how Miami will juggle QBs and I don't know that it's a sure thing White will be the emergency. Without having heard anything, I could just as easily see Henne being the #3--- or is there any talk of making all three active?

a team's #3 QB only ever gets into a game if the first 2 go down. and the reports i'm hearing from miami are that henne is pretty impressive this offseason, and will almost certainly be the backup, with an eye toward starting next year at the latest.

 

[gorf]

Undervalued.Very likely to finish top 10. Very unlikely to be picked top 10 or 15 in my leagues anyway.My strongest reasons for this are the fact that he is a player fully recovered from knee surgery with "getting paid" on his mind. The shelf life of pro Rb's is short. He needs to cash in sooner rather than later. Contract year's are huge. The previously stated reasons of an improved OL and Parcell's tendency to pound the ball help as well. I'm a fan, and I never was before.

do you think he's going to try harder this year because it's a contract year? doesn't that suggest that he gives something less than 100% in other years? that may be the case, but i'm guessing most professional athletes would be offended by that idea.

 

[Fantaholic]

Undervalued.

Very likely to finish top 10. Very unlikely to be picked top 10 or 15 in my leagues anyway.

My strongest reasons for this are the fact that he is a player fully recovered from knee surgery with "getting paid" on his mind. The shelf life of pro Rb's is short. He needs to cash in sooner rather than later. Contract year's are huge. The previously stated reasons of an improved OL and Parcell's tendency to pound the ball help as well. I'm a fan, and I never was before.

do you think he's going to try harder this year because it's a contract year? doesn't that suggest that he gives something less than 100% in other years? that may be the case, but i'm guessing most professional athletes would be offended by that idea.

Yes. Over the years I have witnessed many player's seasons that were arguably enhanced by their motivation to make the money. As recent as last year, I think that some of Boldin's actions were directly related to his contract situation that was near it's end. He may have let his facial fracure heal an extra week or two had he not been trying to prove something. Frankly, I think it's kind of crazy that you believe athletes today are motivated by much other than money.

 

[=Smackdown=]

Under valued IMO with an ADP currently around 28ish.

2 years removed from surgery

Contract year

Improved Oline

I'll be targeting him as my RB2 in the 2nd round of every draft.

IF he stays healthy and plays all 16 games he has a chance to finish in the Top 5.

 

[iSnitch]

Undervalued.

Very likely to finish top 10. Very unlikely to be picked top 10 or 15 in my leagues anyway.

My strongest reasons for this are the fact that he is a player fully recovered from knee surgery with "getting paid" on his mind. The shelf life of pro Rb's is short. He needs to cash in sooner rather than later. Contract year's are huge. The previously stated reasons of an improved OL and Parcell's tendency to pound the ball help as well. I'm a fan, and I never was before.

do you think he's going to try harder this year because it's a contract year? doesn't that suggest that he gives something less than 100% in other years? that may be the case, but i'm guessing most professional athletes would be offended by that idea.

Yes. Over the years I have witnessed many player's seasons that were arguably enhanced by their motivation to make the money. As recent as last year, I think that some of Boldin's actions were directly related to his contract situation that was near it's end. He may have let his facial fracure heal an extra week or two had he not been trying to prove something. Frankly, I think it's kind of crazy that you believe athletes today are motivated by much other than money.

Drinen or one of the other staffers did a study and showed there is no difference between a contract year and a non-contract year.He may do better because he's healthy, the line is improved, Ricky is yet another year older, but because he's going to get a new contract? I don't think so.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'm a bit torn. I like Brown, the 2nd year back from ACL thing, the OL and that he seems to have a lot of talent.

I don't like the schedule. At all. Carlton Gray has it 15% harder than last year for RBs.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

where does he seem to be going in redrafts?

 

[LOCO]

where does he seem to be going in redrafts?

late second/early third.with the likes of pierre thomas and ryan grant.

 

[Instinctive]

^ I would take Ryan Grant over Brown every day of the week.

 

[JDub15]

Ronnie Brown certainly seems like one of the most polarizing players this off-season.

I also believe that he's has several factors in his favor for the upcoming season:

- Pat White unlikely to unsurp touches because he will likely be the emergency QB (as previously mentioned)

- Noticeably more effective than Ricky Williams both rushing and receiving

- Oline upgrades, J.Long gains a year of exp, C J.Grove is more suited for the scheme than C S.Setele, G J.Smiley is healthy

- Offensive uptick? Football Outsiders notes that offenses that perform very well (based on their DVOA statistic) on 1st and 2nd down, but poor on 3rd down, tend to perform much better the following season. The 2008 Dolphins fit this profile, they finished 4th on first down, 3rd on second down, but 23rd on third down. The most notable example was the 2003 Chargers who were terrible on offense but showed the same tendencies, the next season they broke out and Drew Brees went to the Pro Bowl.

- Week 16 they play Houston at home, a great Fantasy Bowl matchup.

Downside:

- The schedule is tougher this season, FO predicts 10th hardest schedule

- Week 14 they play on the road at Jacksonville, week 15 they play on the road at Tennessee, both terrible matchups for the playoffs.

Brown's current ADP puts him early/mid 3rd in 12 team PPR. So it really depends who you are targeting/end up with in round 1-2, but it's hard to justify selecting him ahead of Wes Welker or Dwayne Bowe in a PPR league.

In Non-PPR his an early 4th rounder which would be fantastic value.

23. 2.11 Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

24. 2.12 Boldin, Anquan ARI WR

25. 3.01 Portis, Clinton WAS RB

26. 3.02 Colston, Marques NOS

27. 3.03 Bush, Reggie NOS

28. 3.04 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR

29. 3.05 Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

30. 3.06 Welker, Wes NEP WR

31. 3.07 Manning, Peyton IND QB

32. 3.08 Smith, Kevin DET RB

33. 3.09 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

34. 3.10 Witten, Jason DAL TE

 

[ChuckLiddell]

^ I would take Ryan Grant over Brown every day of the week.

Really? That decisively? Based upon what?I dont think it is reasonable to argue that Grant is more talented. He has had 1.5 seasons of relevance in the NFL. For the last half of 07 he was money. Brown was better though for the first half of 07 than Grant was for the second half. In 08 Brown was recovering from a torn ACL and playing for a team that was 1-15 the previous year, and he was still more fantasy-relevant than Grant. To me, Grant is a very average RB. Granted, he is in a solid offense without much competition. On the other hand, Ronnie is a very talented RB - maybe a top 5-10 talent. He is far more versatile than Grant. He does have more competion for carries than Grant does, but that is really the only leg up that I see Grant having over Brown. I guess it can be argued that the Green Bay offense will present more opportunity - and thats a solid point - but Pennington is a bit underrated in these parts. The Miami OL should be very good this season, and even if White steals some wildcat snaps, Ronnie will likely still be the RB in that formation most of the time. Ricky logged some good yardage playing that role.Personally, there is no shot I would take Grant over Brown even one day a week - especially not on Sundays.

 

[iSnitch]

I think situation plays a much greater role than talent in predicting production.

 

[Instinctive]

^ I would take Ryan Grant over Brown every day of the week.

Really? That decisively? Based upon what?I dont think it is reasonable to argue that Grant is more talented. He has had 1.5 seasons of relevance in the NFL. For the last half of 07 he was money. Brown was better though for the first half of 07 than Grant was for the second half. In 08 Brown was recovering from a torn ACL and playing for a team that was 1-15 the previous year, and he was still more fantasy-relevant than Grant.

To me, Grant is a very average RB. Granted, he is in a solid offense without much competition.

On the other hand, Ronnie is a very talented RB - maybe a top 5-10 talent. He is far more versatile than Grant. He does have more competion for carries than Grant does, but that is really the only leg up that I see Grant having over Brown. I guess it can be argued that the Green Bay offense will present more opportunity - and thats a solid point - but Pennington is a bit underrated in these parts. The Miami OL should be very good this season, and even if White steals some wildcat snaps, Ronnie will likely still be the RB in that formation most of the time. Ricky logged some good yardage playing that role.

Personally, there is no shot I would take Grant over Brown even one day a week - especially not on Sundays.

Focus on bolded portion for a second please...how the hell can you believe that? Grant rushed for 1200+ yards. After missign training camp and battling a hamstring injury. As a matter of fact, lets look here:Lets say that after week 4, Grant was back in shape. And I believe even then he was battling the hammy injury. He had 1 game under 50 yards rushing from that point on. Brown on the other hand had 6 games under 50 yards rushing. I know we like Brown's yfs totals, but after adding in receiving, he still has 4 games under 50 total.

Don't tell me I conveniently left out the game against NE with the Wildcat, I think we can all say it was a new formation, totally unprepared defense, and will not be repeated. Besides, it wasn't his highest yardage game, his highest was week 5 with 132 yfs. Grant's best was 151 yfs in week 11.

Yards per carry are similar. In fact, if you do eliminate the Patriots game as an outlier (which according to a Q1/Q3 analysis and IQR it is a statistical outlier) they have the same ypc.

On the issue of 2007:

Throwing out yet another statistical outlier for Brown, his week 4 against Oakland (8.9 ypc that game) he ends with a 4.5 ypc for that year. He does add a lot of yfs, and Cam Cameron is forcefeeding him the ball. We see production, but we see lots of other bakcs with the same per catch and per carry stats that didn't have that scheme. Btw, that scheme is now gone.

Grant's 2007 ypc, after throwing out a statistical outlier in week 17 (9.5 ypc that game) is 4.9. That to me says he was gaining more yards per carry than Brown. Huh. Good to look at actual numbers sometimes I suppose.

Adn again, even after all that, Grant doesn't lose carries to anybody. Grant doesn't have the ACL questions remaining. Which Brown does. Grant is not in a timeshare. Brown is. Grant has an offense that can effectively move the chains on 3rd down. Brown does not.

Could you tell me a reason I should like Brown? Grant should be even better this year after meshing a year with Rodgers and spending a summer involved in OTAs and TC. Maybe you should take a second to remove the glasses and look at the facts.