THE AVERAGE: 41 catches, 565 yards, 4 TDs
I'm not a fan of this number being thrown around so much... look at the last 5 seasons. If a guy is highlighted in red it means he didn't play more than 12 games (not start, just suit up) as a rookie. Because this whole 'rookie average' thing that keeps being mentioned around the fantasy community is complete BS in my eyes.
If a rookie wideout in the last 5 seasons actually suited up for over 3/4 of the games (which we know Beckham, Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin will 100% be doing short of injury), here's how they performed.
...THE AVERAGE: 52 Receptions, 721 yards, 4.7 TDs
That is a much more reasonable stat line when we're trying to predict one of these guys who we know will see immediate field time from day one.
Unfortunately the problem we really do not know for certain which players will or won't suit up for 3/4 of the games.
I do like using the most recent stats but also having the longer view with more data points is also a big help.
See, I think we have a pretty good idea that Watkins and Evans will be starting most of the games if healthy, they were drafted to high to sit on the sidelines. Buffalo didn't give up a 2015 1st to move up and get Watkins to leave him on the bench in gym shorts. Same goes for OBJ, I can't see a scenario where he isn't suiting up every game and out on the field for a bulk of plays. Cooks is probably the biggest question mark of the above group but I think he too will see a good amount of playing time this season.
As for the 2nd thing, I actually don't think a longer view is relevant in the slightest form to this situation. Maybe including 2007 and 2008 could warrant some discussion but prior to that this was a whole different league. Even then, you had one or two offenses that were high flying. These days that's everyone more or less. The opportunity for rookie production is so much higher in the past 5 seasons that every before which is why I chose that number. It wasn't arbitrary. Here, lets look at it this way.
Here are the NFL passing stats from 2008 (6 years ago) to last season:
2008 - 16,526 Passing Attempts, 108,177 yards, 646 TDs
2009 - 17,033 Passing Attempts, 111,851 yards, 710 TDs
2010 - 17,269 Passing Attempts, 113,450 yards, 751 TDs
2011 - 17,410 Passing Attempts, 117,601 yards, 745 TDs
2012 - 17,788 Passing Attempts, 118,418 yards, 757 TDs
2013 - 18,136 Passing Attempts, 120,626 yards, 804 TDs
Do you see why I feel like the last 5 years is really all that's relevant? The gap between 2013 and 2008 is 1610 attempts, 12449 yards and 158 TDs
That's about the equivalent of 2.5 2013 Peyton Manning's added to the league between 2008 and 2013. We're talking an extra 2192.9 fantasy points to go around to receivers since then. It's such a glaring abnormality it's not only irrelevant it's actually reckless to include anything earlier than 2009. Because even 2008 vs 2009 was absolutely hilarious in it's gap... 507 Attempts, 3674 yards, 64 TDs. Apparently between 2008 and 2009 there was an expansion team that was just on fire or something... (joking of course).
Khy this is an interesting point that you bring up and I agree that over the last 5 years there has been significant change in the NFL in terms of total plays being run and the higher frequency of passing plays compared to running plays.
2013 total plays 33302 18136pa 13871ra
Team averages 1040.7 plays 556.8pa 433.5ra
2012 total plays 32882 17788pa 13925ra
Team averages 1027.6 plays 555.9pa 435.2ra
2011 total plays 32569 17410pa 13971ra
Team averages 1017.8 plays 544.1pa 436.6ra
2010 total plays 32319 17269pa 13920ra
Team averages 1010 plays 539.7pa 435ra 4.2ypc
2009 total plays 32222 17033pa 14088ra
Team averages 1006.9 plays 532.3pa 440.3ra
2008 31681 plays 16526pa 14119ra
Team averages 990 plays 516pa 441ra
2007 32133 plays 17045pa 13986ra
Team averages 1004 plays 532pa 437ra
2006 32000 plays 16389pa 14447ra
Team averages 1000 plays 512pa 451ra
2005 32021 plays 16464pa 14375ra
Team averages 1000 plays 515pa 449ra
2004 31978 plays 16354pa 14428ra
Team averages 999 plays 511pa 450ra
So you see the total plays keep going up corresponding with an increase in pass attempts compared to rushing attempts. This is no accident either as evaluation and studies have incentivised coaches to keep calling more passing plays because it improves their chances at points and 1st downs which win games.
This also has to do with the valuation of personnel. Teams will draft offensive linemen for their pass protecting abilities over their run blocking. So the players who are better run blockers are not valued as highly. This somewhat locks teams into passing the ball more as their team is not really built to run the ball well. It takes a long term commitment with front office and coaching staff in agreement to run the ball and there are only a few teams in the league who seem committed to that philosophy. While the rest of the teams are focusing on what they consider to be the highest priority, passing the ball to win.
However the event that I believe has changed the league the most was the enforcement of the no chuck rule in 2004. It may have taken a season or 2 for that momentum to shift, you see in 2007 rushing attempts dropped to 437ra for the 1st time then followed by 2 years of a correction to the 440 level before settling in at about 435ra the last 4 years.
The largest jump in total plays has been occurring over the last 3 seasons however. I think this is due to more teams adopting the no huddle or up tempo offensive philosophy. Momentum on that seems to be building also as more teams adopt the philosophy across the NFL. Right now I think close to 50% of the teams are planning to employ this increased pacing in their offenses. So I am thinking that plays go up again in 2014. The run heavy up tempo offense seems like one of the few things keeping rushing attempts league wide from falling even further than they have.
So I agree this is a more favorable environment for all WR including rookies. There has been a big boost for rookie TE production over the past few seasons as well. At the same time I do consider 2004 to be a relevant time frame to consider, because that is when I think the major change began due to the no chuck rule being re-enforced at that time. If you go back to seasons prior to 2004 the run ratios are for the most part with teams running the ball 440 or more times a season compared to the 435 they seem to be now.
Great rookie seasons come from all eras however. So I wouldn't go so far as to say looking at anything before 2009 is irrelevant. It still comes down to each player and situation.
