Rookie WR comparisons (1 Viewer)

[purplehaze67]

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnews...X&folio=CGI

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson

Maclin = Isaac Bruce

DHB = Ocho Cinco

Britt = Fitz

Nicks = Boldin

Harvin = Steve Smith

I don't get much of a chance to follow the college game, so something like this is helpful to me but only if it's reasonably accurate. Any thoughts? Any of these guys have a better comp?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Sorry, but OMG I disagree with these

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson - No freaking way. Crabtree doesn't have the speed or size of Calvin Johnson.

Maclin = Isaac Bruce - More like Torry Holt

DHB = Ocho Cinco - More like Cliff Branch. Not in size, but in ability.

Britt = Fitz More like Vincent Jackson, but Mayock says he compares to TO.

 

[Trey]

I'm not even sure how to respond to some of these. Maclin's downside in their article is that he doesn't run crisp routes, yet he is compared to Isaac Bruce. Crabtree lacks speed, but is compared to Calvin?

Just poorly done.

 

[identikit]

the Nicks and Harvin comparisons look ok to me...

The rest , not so much...

 

[gianmarco]

So essentially all these rookie WR's are gonna be elite studs. Gotcha.

 

[EBF]

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnews...X&folio=CGI

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson

Maclin = Isaac Bruce

DHB = Ocho Cinco

Britt = Fitz

Nicks = Boldin

Harvin = Steve Smith

I don't get much of a chance to follow the college game, so something like this is helpful to me but only if it's reasonably accurate. Any thoughts? Any of these guys have a better comp?

Terrible.

 

[JamesTheScot]

So essentially all these rookie WR's are gonna be elite studs. Gotcha.

Exactly. Those comparisons are essentially worthless. It's an attempt to evoke a style of play for you to visualize but nothing more. The problem is you still have no idea if this guy is going to be able to cut it in the NFL no matter what his style of play is. That's the problem. C.Johnson, L.Fitzgerald, R.Moss, A.Boldin and S.Smith all have different styles yet all are very successful in the NFL. Yet the NFL is full of unspectacular players that also fit in those same kind of general molds as well.

 

[The Man With No Name]

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnews...X&folio=CGI

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson

Maclin = Isaac Bruce

DHB = Ocho Cinco

Britt = Fitz

Nicks = Boldin

Harvin = Steve Smith

I don't get much of a chance to follow the college game, so something like this is helpful to me but only if it's reasonably accurate. Any thoughts? Any of these guys have a better comp?

Well, they compared Calvin Johnson to Terrell OwensThey compared Chad Johnson to Torry Holt

They compared Larry Fitzgerald to Terrell Owens

They compared Anquan Boldin to Hines Ward

They compared Steve Smith to Az-Zahir Hakim

I wouldn't bother paying attention to the comparisons. What are they gonna do, compare them to Troy Williamson or Peter Warrick? Of course not. By the way, they compared Warrick to Jerry Rice and Williamson to Chad Johnson.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

So essentially all these rookie WR's are gonna be elite studs. Gotcha.

Exactly. Those comparisons are essentially worthless. It's an attempt to evoke a style of play for you to visualize but nothing more. The problem is you still have no idea if this guy is going to be able to cut it in the NFL no matter what his style of play is. That's the problem. C.Johnson, L.Fitzgerald, R.Moss, A.Boldin and S.Smith all have different styles yet all are very successful in the NFL. Yet the NFL is full of unspectacular players that also fit in those same kind of general molds as well.

Isn't that the truth !!

 

[lyon812]

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnews...X&folio=CGI

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson

Maclin = Isaac Bruce

DHB = Ocho Cinco

Britt = Fitz

Nicks = Boldin

Harvin = Steve Smith

I don't get much of a chance to follow the college game, so something like this is helpful to me but only if it's reasonably accurate. Any thoughts? Any of these guys have a better comp?

The only one I agree with is Boldin. The rest annoy me. If you want to see some great comps, check out Waldman's 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Seriously.

 

[Matt Waldman]

I have a great deal of respect for TSN and I enjoy their draft guide, something I get as a treat when I'm done with the RSP so I can compare what they say. That said, I agree that these comparisons of players are really off - but to me they are every year - and it's something I've noticed but never really said.

Part of the problem might be that they don't explain what part of a player's game is comparable to another. To me, the Crabtree-Johnson comparison is just way off. Now I'd understand it if they do something like Bloom might do: "Crabtree is a slower Johnson with similar hands and skill fighting for the ball in the air." But they aren't that thorough and as a result the comparison seems lazy.

 

[FavreCo]

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson That's just stupid.

Maclin = Isaac Bruce - maybe.

DHB = Ocho Cinco - doubtful

Britt = Fitz

Nicks = Boldin - The only one that is remotely close.

Harvin = Steve Smith

 

[Couch Potato]

I'll play.

Crabtree = Boldin. Will make it big at this level, using strength, toughness, hands, overall field awareness and football smarts.

Maclin = Isaac Bruce, the #2 yardage leader in the history of football?!?! Get real. I like Maclin, think he'll do well. Let's aim more for something like Roddy White. Could just be another Mark Clayton though (the Raven, not the old Dolphin).

DHB = Ashley Lelie. There, I said it. Don't like that one? OK, Donte Stallworth.

Britt = Fitz? No, closer to Dwayne Jarrett I'm afraid. Remember, all these guys aren't going to be studs.

Nicks = I almost want to say David Terrell, but I want this guy to succeed. Let's say Amani Toomer, or maybe even Eric Moulds. I love the guy's football sense; I just wish he were faster.

Harvin = Donnie Avery maybe, or maybe even Lee Evans (let's stay away from Steve Smith comparisons until we see how well he can punch a team mate in the mouth). But truthfully, I think Harvin busts, just another one of many gifted talents who never "get it" at the next level. I think he's another Peter Warrick or Troy Edwards or Freddie Mitchell.

History tells us half of these guys will amount to little, no matter how impossible that may seem to those watching highlight clip after highlight clip. My bet is Heyward-Bey, Britt, Harvin will be those guys.

Lest we forget, Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, David Terrell, Reggie Williams, Travis Taylor, Donte Stallworth, Michael Clayton, and Rod Gardner were all taken in the top half of the 1st round in this decade.

 

[EBF]

Lest we forget, Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, David Terrell, Reggie Williams, Travis Taylor, Donte Stallworth, Michael Clayton, and Rod Gardner were all taken in the top half of the 1st round in this decade.

I agree with your overall sentiment and most of your takes (except for Harvin). If you look at the consensus top 6 WRs in the draft this year, it's likely that at least three of them will be disappointments. 1-2 of them will probably be utter disasters.However, when talking about previous busts it's important to remember that a lot of those guys failed for reasons that were unrelated to football talent. I think Charles Rogers could've been great if he hadn't stopped caring. He got fat and lazy. By the time the Lions cut him, his 4.3 speed had turned into 4.7 speed. To a lesser extent, character was the demise of Rod Gardner, Reggie Williams, and Donte Stallworth. They all had enough talent to contribute in the NFL, but they didn't have enough sense to stay motivated and keep out of trouble. It's hard to predict that at the prospect stage, though there are often warning signs. Warrick should've been an obvious bust candidate since he's small and slow. Bad combination.

 

[Couch Potato]

And EBF, character is the concern with Harvin as well. Not talent. He's a disaster waiting to happen. In fact, of all teams, Dallas has taken him off their board completely due to character concerns. Dallas, character concerns! LOL!

 

[EBF]

And EBF, character is the concern with Harvin as well. Not talent. He's a disaster waiting to happen. In fact, of all teams, Dallas has taken him off their board completely due to character concerns. Dallas, character concerns! LOL!

That sounds familiar.http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2007/0429/nfl_g_moss_195.jpg

Like I said in another thread, I would rather gamble on a freak athlete with attitude problems than a mediocre Boy Scout. I think Harvin has what it takes to be an effective player at the next level. He always took care of business on the field at Florida, so I'm not convinced that he's going to be a chronic problem in the NFL.

 

[super sleeper]

Aren't first round WRs are supposed to become elite players in the NFL? I think that was the point of the article in making comparisons.

Britt, btw, looks more like Owens than Fitz to me. Except he's not a diva, despite the way-overblown reports of attitude problems that seem to have disappeared post-Combine.

 

[Rodeojones]

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnews...X&folio=CGI

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson

Maclin = Isaac Bruce

DHB = Ocho Cinco

Britt = Fitz

Nicks = Boldin

Harvin = Steve Smith

I don't get much of a chance to follow the college game, so something like this is helpful to me but only if it's reasonably accurate. Any thoughts? Any of these guys have a better comp?

Terrible.

 

[Matt Waldman]

CP - I think the Dallas concern is probably more of a reflection of the pendulum swinging from "let's take a chance on Pacman, TAnk, and TO" back to "maybe we need to avoid having these choices blow up in our faces"

I agree with EBF that Harvin is probably more of a Ocho Cinco - TO kind of concern than a Plaxico, PacMan, Rae Carruth kind of concern. Not that I would necessarily want that on my squad, but Harvin has skills to be a quality receiver with a refinement.

EBF makes great points about Stallworth and guys like that...it's why I might sacrifice a little on the physical skills front for a guy who shows he can catch the ball in any situation and use good form doing so.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

On Harvin and character:

Link

The Way We Hear It — draft edition

Harvin headlines first round’s five most risky picks

By Nolan Nawrocki

April 9, 2009

When it comes to stacking talent, most teams abide by the belief that talent and character can be separated. They grade the talent for what it is, setting their draft boards based on who the best talent is, from top to bottom, and then massage grades to a point where they feel comfortable taking a chance on a player with great risk — if they feel comfortable taking him at all — and do not remove his card from their draft board altogether.

With Jay Cutler forcing his trade out of Denver after losing part of the locker room and completely losing ownership, Michael Vick currently serving time in prison for killing dogs, Plaxico Burress on the street after needlessly carrying a gun, and Adam Jones potentially not getting back into the league after far too many run-ins with the law, the importance of character in the decision-making process has come to the forefront, especially when major investments are required early in the first round, where all of the above-mentioned players were drafted.

“I don’t know what it is,” one NFL executive said. “I’m not sure if it is a societal thing, but everyone seems like they have hickeys nowadays. Maybe it’s the Internet and the access to more information than we ever had — I don’t know — but it’s difficult to find many players that do not have blemishes.”

PFW polled five high-level league executives, asking them to rank five players with suspect track records — (listed alphabetically) Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree, Illinois CB Vontae Davis, Florida WR Percy Harvin, USC ILB Rey Maualuga and Boston College DT B.J. Raji — in the order in which character is most likely to be a negative factor in the pros. All participants were granted anonymity in exchange for honesty.

One top-ranking official, who said he would not draft any of them, compared the exercise to trying to decide between whether he’d rather eat cow manure, drink monkey urine or ingest rabbit turds. None of the choices seemed attractive enough to place one over the other, and, it should be noted, not all felt strongly that character would be an issue that would prevent them from drafting the following players or affect their ability to succeed in the pros. Teams with strong locker rooms, veteran leadership and consistent, demanding coaches may be able to better tolerate concerns.

More specific details on these players are included in Pro Football Weekly’s 2009 Draft Preview than what is included below, and much is best left unsaid, but following are the results of how teams rated the greatest risk concerns.

1) WR Percy Harvin, Florida (Jr.)

The first player mentioned by all five executives, Harvin is the clear-cut favorite in this year’s draft class to find trouble after receiving a giant payday. He was very competitive at Florida, even battling through a broken bone in his foot that was publicly referred to as a sprained ankle, helping the Gators win two national championships the past three years. The mention of character concerns about Harvin drew outrage from ardent supporters of Gator Nation after PFW’s 2009 Draft Guide was released. Nonetheless, one executive said Harvin would have to slip to the fourth round for him to consider rolling the dice on Harvin's character. Two others said they would not entertain the idea of drafting him at any price. Coachability, a posse of hangers-on, his lack of respect for authority and drug usage made Harvin a unanimous selection to become a repeated problem in the pros.

2) WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (Soph.-3)

Crabtree may not have a laundry list of arrests, but his ego is abnormally large to the point where he repeatedly demeaned training staff, his work ethic has been described as “marginal at best,” and his intelligence and ability to handle success remain major question marks. One thorough evaluator compared Crabtree’s mental makeup to that of former LSU and Buccaneers 2004 15th overall pick Michael Clayton, who made a big splash in the NFL as a rookie before going on to average 31 catches, 378 yards and a half-TD catch each of the past four years as he lost focus, bought into the hype and stopped working at his craft the way young receivers must do to be great. Crabtree's competitiveness noticeably stands out on tape, and he did play through injury last season. However, when the Red Raiders were getting whipped by better competition (Oklahoma and Mississippi) during the final two games of the season, Crabtree did not finish either game. After he gets a taste of success in the pros, evaluators are not confident he will be able to handle the trappings of the pro game.

3) ILB Rey Maualuga, USC

Football is clearly very important to him, and he has endearingly been described as a “war daddy” by evaluators, but questions remain about his maturity, accountability, trustworthiness, intelligence and ability to responsibly handle alcohol. His coaches publicly have contended that he has matured greatly, but some of his actions have continued to suggest otherwise. One executive said he had positioned Maualuga just far enough down in the first round so that he would not be considered with the team’s first pick, hoping he would be gone by the time the second pick came around. Another evaluator said he did not envision Maualuga’s position on his team’s draft board being altered based on his character but, when pressed as to whether he would draft Maualuga in the top 10, said the pick would be “too scary.”

4) CB Vontae Davis, Illinois (Jr.)

Outside of being demoted several times throughout his career, in the spring and in the fall, Davis may not seem like he has a lot of issues on the surface — with no noted arrests or incidents that scream “problem.” However, his team interviews have been received very poorly, raising questions about his mental instability, lack of maturity and intelligence issues that clearly show up on tape consistently. He was regularly in the coaches’ doghouse, is very difficult to manage, does not respond well to coaching and may never easily blend into a locker room, as he beats to his own drum.

5) DT B.J. Raji, Boston College

Defensive tackles may need to be held to a different standard, with the modern-day widebody not needed to play as many snaps in the pros as most are asked to play in college, where fewer schools rotate their defensive linemen the way NFL teams tend to do. In a league where extra mass is rewarded and girth is a big plus defending the run, not all teams even penalize their linemen for not being able to control their weight. However, Raji’s work habits, intelligence and overall maturity, including at least one verified failed drug test, were distractions in college, especially early on, and several executives said they would not be willing to invest a first-round pick in a player with so many questions. Among the aforementioned five players with concerns, however, Raji drew the least criticism because of the improved maturity he showed as a senior after a clerical error cost him his junior season.

Others who could be affected by character issues:

WR Brandon Tate, North Carolina

WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina

OT Michael Oher, Mississippi

TE Travis Beckum, Wisconsin

LB Dannell Ellerbe, Georgia

 

[Couch Potato]

Aren't first round WRs are supposed to become elite players in the NFL?

All six of the WRs in the OP's post won't be 1st rounders, first of all. And no, I wouldn't say 1st rounders are supposed to become elite players. Top-5 or top-10 or so, yes I think teams expect that, but as you get deep into the round, I think teams just hope they can be significant contributors.Here are the 98 WRs taken in the 1st round since 1980, in order of career yards. While some are still playing, note that only about a third so far have exceeded 5,200 yards in their careers. That's really only about 2 to 3 1,000 yard seasons with lesser yardage years added on. And, about a third of the list will never even reach 3,000 yards.

Law of averages says among Crabtree, Heyward-Bey, Harvin, Britt, Maclin, and Nicks, one becomes elite, one becomes pretty productive over a career, two are just okay, and two end up being either bit players or total washouts.

Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Yds TD

1 1985 1 16 Jerry Rice 22895 197

2 1988 1 6 Tim Brown 14934 100

3 1996 1 19 Marvin Harrison 14580 128

4 1998 1 21 Randy Moss 13201 135

5 1984 1 1 Irving Fryar 12785 84

6 1980 1 18 Art Monk 12721 68

7 1999 1 6 Torry Holt 12660 74

8 1988 1 11 Michael Irvin 11904 65

9 1995 1 8 Joey Galloway 10710 77

10 1996 1 1 Keyshawn Johnson 10571 64

11 1989 1 22 Andre Rison 10205 84

12 1996 1 24 Eric Moulds 9995 49

13 1991 1 10 Herman Moore 9174 62

14 1988 1 15 Anthony Miller 9148 63

15 1996 1 7 Terry Glenn 8823 44

16 1994 1 21 Johnnie Morton 8719 43

17 1996 1 18 Eddie Kennison 8345 42

18 1993 1 7 Curtis Conway 8230 52

19 1988 1 7 Sterling Sharpe 8134 65

20 2001 1 30 Reggie Wayne 8129 53

21 2000 1 8 Plaxico Burress 7845 55

22 1994 1 29 Derrick Alexander 6971 40

23 1983 1 18 Willie Gault 6635 44

24 1985 1 10 Al Toon 6605 31

25 2001 1 16 Santana Moss 6541 43

26 1982 1 20 Mike Quick 6464 61

27 1997 1 7 Ike Hilliard 6397 35

28 2003 1 3 Andre Johnson 6379 33

29 1987 1 20 Haywood Jeffires 6334 50

30 1993 1 16 Sean Dawkins 6291 25

31 1985 1 13 Eddie Brown 6134 41

32 1984 1 23 Louis Lipps 6019 39

33 2004 1 3 Larry Fitzgerald 5975 46

34 1985 1 23 Jessie Hester 5850 29

---------------------------------------------------

35 1986 1 21 Tim McGee 5203 28

36 1991 1 13 Mike Pritchard 5187 26

37 1993 1 25 O.J. McDuffie 5074 29

38 2004 1 13 Lee Evans 4744 32

39 1999 1 8 David Boston 4699 25

40 1994 1 17 Charles Johnson 4606 24

41 2002 1 13 Donte Stallworth 4383 32

42 1995 1 4 Michael Westbrook 4374 26

43 1995 1 10 J.J. Stokes 4293 30

44 2001 1 9 Koren Robinson 4244 16

45 2004 1 7 Roy E. Williams 4082 30

46 2000 1 10 Travis Taylor 4017 22

47 2002 1 20 Javon Walker 4011 31

48 1986 1 18 Mike Sherrard 3931 22

49 1987 1 28 Mark Ingram 3926 26

50 1991 1 23 Randal Hill 3849 14

51 2002 1 19 Ashley Lelie 3749 15

52 2005 1 3 Braylon Edwards 3558 28

53 2005 1 27 Roddy White 3536 16

54 1991 1 12 Alvin Harper 3473 21

55 2003 1 17 Bryant Johnson 3221 12

56 2001 1 15 Rod Gardner 3165 23

57 1988 1 27 Wendell Davis 3000 14

---------------------------------------------------

58 2000 1 4 Peter Warrick 2991 18

59 2004 1 15 Michael Clayton 2706 9

60 2005 1 22 Mark Clayton 2636 10

61 2006 1 25 Santonio Holmes 2587 15

62 1999 1 13 Troy Edwards 2404 11

63 2004 1 29 Michael Jenkins 2372 17

64 1998 1 16 Kevin Dyson 2325 18

65 2004 1 9 Reggie Williams 2322 18

66 1980 1 2 Lam Jones 2322 13

67 1981 1 16 Mark Nichols 2235 9

68 1984 1 4 Kenny Jackson 2170 11

69 2005 1 21 Matt Jones 2153 15

70 2007 1 2 Calvin Johnson 2087 16

71 2007 1 23 Dwayne Bowe 2017 12

72 1987 1 27 Ricky Nattiel 1972 8

73 1997 1 16 Reidel Anthony 1846 16

74 1988 1 20 Aaron Cox 1732 8

75 2001 1 8 David Terrell 1602 9

76 1992 1 4 Desmond Howard 1597 7

77 1989 1 27 Shawn Collins 1433 5

78 1989 1 16 Hart Lee Dykes 1344 7

79 1982 1 11 Anthony Hancock 1266 5

80 2001 1 25 Freddie Mitchell 1263 5

81 2007 1 32 Anthony Gonzalez 1240 7

82 2007 1 9 Ted Ginn Jr. 1210 4

83 2005 1 7 Troy Williamson 1097 4

84 1994 1 24 Thomas Lewis 1032 5

85 1982 1 13 Lindsay Scott 864 1

86 1997 1 27 Rae Carruth 804 4

87 2000 1 21 Sylvester Morris 678 3

88 2005 1 10 Mike Williams 539 2

89 1981 1 10 David Verser 454 3

90 2003 1 2 Charles Rogers 440 4

91 1982 1 19 Perry Tuttle 375 3

92 2007 1 27 Robert Meachem 289 3

93 2007 1 30 Craig Davis 247 1

94 1997 1 15 Yatil Green 234 0

95 2004 1 31 Rashaun Woods 160 1

96 2000 1 29 R. Jay Soward 154 1

97 1998 1 30 Marcus Nash 76 0

98 1984 1 17 Clyde Duncan 39 1

 

[az_prof]

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnews...X&folio=CGI

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson

Maclin = Isaac Bruce

DHB = Ocho Cinco

Britt = Fitz

Nicks = Boldin

Harvin = Steve Smith

I don't get much of a chance to follow the college game, so something like this is helpful to me but only if it's reasonably accurate. Any thoughts? Any of these guys have a better comp?

It's hard to respect SI when they put out something like this--obviously, if there is any merit to this comparison then the 09 class of WRs is the best in history. It just doesn't seem credible that these six would be as good as the six to whom they are compared, so the result is that the whole comparison is meaningless.

 

[az_prof]

Aren't first round WRs are supposed to become elite players in the NFL? I think that was the point of the article in making comparisons.Britt, btw, looks more like Owens than Fitz to me. Except he's not a diva, despite the way-overblown reports of attitude problems that seem to have disappeared post-Combine.

But only about 40-45% will even become starters for their team and productive players, much less perrenial All-Pro type of players. If two of these guys come close to the guy they are compared to then that would be very good.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Crabtree = Michael Irvin/Boldin hybrid

Maclin = Ted Ginn

DHB = Somewhere between Randy Moss and Troy Williamson

Britt = Burress

Nicks = Mushin

Harvin = Steve Smith (Can't think of any better)

 

[Blackjacks]

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnews...X&folio=CGI

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson I'd go more like a slower Andre Johnson

Maclin = Isaac Bruce Chad Johnson

DHB = Ocho Cinco Troy Williamson

Britt = Fitz David Terrell

Nicks = Boldin I actully like this comparison but I know he isn't going to be as good

Harvin = Steve Smith Ted Ginn Jr. with an attitude

I don't get much of a chance to follow the college game, so something like this is helpful to me but only if it's reasonably accurate. Any thoughts? Any of these guys have a better comp?

 

[SugarNuts]

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnews...X&folio=CGI

Crabtree = Calvin Johnson

Maclin = Isaac Bruce

DHB = Ocho Cinco

Britt = Fitz

Nicks = Boldin

Harvin = Steve Smith

I don't get much of a chance to follow the college game, so something like this is helpful to me but only if it's reasonably accurate. Any thoughts? Any of these guys have a better comp?

So there are 6 uber studs in this years draft? Wow! Im glad I got a lot of draft picks in my leagues this year!!