Rookie WRs: Over- and Undervalued (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

I was looking over the ADP data today and was struck at how much the rookie WR crop doesn't reflect some of the realities of their situations (IMHO). Ended up writing a blarticle on the subject:

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/24/ev...nd-undervalued/

Love to hear your thoughts...

 

[PahtyTom]

Good blog. I really agree with your undervalued list. I would take the two Jones' over any other rookie WR besides CJ this year.

 

[Jason Wood]

The Jones' boys are intriguing, particularly James Jones. We shouldn't forget that the Packers started Greg Jennings last year as a rookie, and Favre has shown that he'll throw to whoever lines up at wideout (Bill Schroeder anyone?) no matter what their pedigree.

 

[PahtyTom]

The Jones' boys are intriguing, particularly James Jones. We shouldn't forget that the Packers started Greg Jennings last year as a rookie, and Favre has shown that he'll throw to whoever lines up at wideout (Bill Schroeder anyone?) no matter what their pedigree.

That's a good point. Also worth noting is the fact that it appears Favre already trusts him. IMO, it appears he trusts him more than Jennings. And I'd have to agree with Brett on that one as the way Jones' catches every ball so cleanly with his hands is very impressive.

 

[switz]

I was looking over the ADP data today and was struck at how much the rookie WR crop doesn't reflect some of the realities of their situations (IMHO). Ended up writing a blarticle on the subject:

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/24/ev...nd-undervalued/

Love to hear your thoughts...

Problem is, how many rookies can you stash on your roster? I already have Johnson and Bowe.I would also say Laurent Robinson bears watching and drafting.

 

[Bri]

I was looking over the ADP data today and was struck at how much the rookie WR crop doesn't reflect some of the realities of their situations (IMHO). Ended up writing a blarticle on the subject:

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/24/ev...nd-undervalued/

Love to hear your thoughts...

Meachem, Bowe, Jarrett, and a few others are still being drafted on name and hope. We think we're drafting on summer production with guys like Jones-es and Steve Smith but I would think it wouldn't be that hard, difficult but not that difficult, for a WR to break into the Saints or Panthers or Chiefs starting lineup.Devery is just a deep guy in some people's opinions. Can't be that tough to start opposite Kennison. Panthers haven't had a #2 cement himself since Smith and Muhsin.

Plenty of players have looked good in the summer and NOT in the regular season.

Few, oh so few, have not looked good in the summer and done OK-pretty well in the regular season. For me, this is what's keeping me away from some rook WRs. I figure they're the ones that need time to develop most.

 

[Lord Lucan]

How far back do the drafts go though? If the magazines are included in the consensus then clearly the average draft position is going to be inaccurate. One or two of the WRs you mention have seen their stock rise signficantly in the last two or three weeks. James Jones was the 2nd WR taken in a couple of redrafts I've been involved with this week.

Pretty much agree with how you're ranking them, though.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The problem I see is people drafting rookies in redraft leagues based on their long term outlook, instead of this year. I see this every year I play.

 

[identikit]

The problem I see is people drafting rookies in redraft leagues based on their long term outlook, instead of this year. I see this every year I play.

I agree 100%. I have problems in doing redrafts vs dynasties in adjusting my thought process when drafting.Not just with rookies, either.Id

 

[Jason Wood]

The problem I see is people drafting rookies in redraft leagues based on their long term outlook, instead of this year. I see this every year I play.

EXACTLY That's why I think it's so important for people to remember the realities of the rookie WR. For every Marques Colston (who was way off the fantasy radar obviously), there are guys like Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Travis Wilson, Derek Hagan, Brandon Williams, Maurice Stovall, Willie Reid, Cory Rodgers, Jason Avant, Brandon Marshall, Skyler Green, Domenik Hixon, Jon Orr, Mike Hass, Jeremy Bloom, Jeff Webb, Ethan Kilmer, Todd Watkins, Bennie Brazell, Devin Aromashodu, Ben Obamanu and David Anderson.

 

[Willowdoc]

The problem I see is people drafting rookies in redraft leagues based on their long term outlook, instead of this year. I see this every year I play.

EXACTLY That's why I think it's so important for people to remember the realities of the rookie WR. For every Marques Colston (who was way off the fantasy radar obviously), there are guys like Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Travis Wilson, Derek Hagan, Brandon Williams, Maurice Stovall, Willie Reid, Cory Rodgers, Jason Avant, Brandon Marshall, Skyler Green, Domenik Hixon, Jon Orr, Mike Hass, Jeremy Bloom, Jeff Webb, Ethan Kilmer, Todd Watkins, Bennie Brazell, Devin Aromashodu, Ben Obamanu and David Anderson.

Actually there were some people here pushing Colston last year (especvially after th DStallworth trade) the way alot of people are pushing the Jones boys this year (I wasn't one of them). Colston was taken in all 4 WCOFF drafts/auctions I participated in last year. And James Jones went in the 11th last night in a WCOFF satellite and Jacoby Jones in the 14th. Craig Davis in the 13th. I think you need to use only 1 week of ADP data to know whose being taken where, anything longer than that and players you ant in the end game will disappear before you take them.

 

[Koya]

I think there are some reasons for people to overvalue rookies.

For one, it is a BIG story when a Colston (or a Moss, or a Boldin) breaks out in their Rookie year. It is pretty rare and very rare in terms of the number of Rookie WRs out there (maybe one every year or two, or three that a rookie really has a good-great season) but we ALL notice when it happens. So, people get some gut feeling that "meachem will be the guy" - and enough people get that feeling about enough of the rooks to draft them before their real value.

Second, rookies get more publicity in general. You hear about them at the draft. You see their highlights - how awesome they look and will be. Rookies, especially promising ones, are followed closely all preseason, so they are familiar to people. And once again, you are familiar, so you look out/notice when they make that great preseason catch, and the hype continues to grow.

Meanwhile, a once touted rookie that is one or two years into their career, either on a normal growth progression or even a disappointment to date (Troy Williamson, some guy I cant think of because it's his second year and he was just meh last year as most rookies are) are somewhat forgotten in the mix.

I think these factors really contribute to rookies being overvalued in general.

 

[Chaos Commish]

The problem I see is people drafting rookies in redraft leagues based on their long term outlook, instead of this year. I see this every year I play.

EXACTLY That's why I think it's so important for people to remember the realities of the rookie WR. For every Marques Colston (who was way off the fantasy radar obviously), there are guys like Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Travis Wilson, Derek Hagan, Brandon Williams, Maurice Stovall, Willie Reid, Cory Rodgers, Jason Avant, Brandon Marshall, Skyler Green, Domenik Hixon, Jon Orr, Mike Hass, Jeremy Bloom, Jeff Webb, Ethan Kilmer, Todd Watkins, Bennie Brazell, Devin Aromashodu, Ben Obamanu and David Anderson.

I'm always about the Bruces, Kennisons and Moulds out there, but I think this list of names is a bit unfair to compare to the current list of rookies. We discussed at length the below average crop of WRs who came out in 06. Likewise we discussed what an excellent class 07 is. Is that reason to reach for rook WRs in a redraft? No, not at all. I would avoid pretty much all of them for a known commodity. I would only draft one who is starting. Period. That pretty much narrows it down to Craig Davis with the JJone's being interesting, afaik at this point.