Rookiegeddon 2025 (6 Viewers)

[Smack Tripper]

Not you Tyler Warren

Just a little surprising to me they basically all look crappy. Was this a bad draft class? I feel like some are with "earn your stripes" coaches so thats part of it.

Jeanty looks good at least, the line stinks

Hampton hasn't looked great and caused a turnover with the game on the line

Henderson living the McDaniel split

Harvey MIA

Kaleb Johnson is slow

Loveland... curious usage.

 

[wgoldsph]

Kaleb Johnson didn't know the kickoff rules and cost his team a td

 

[Proteus]

The most amazing part is how the hype train derails our memory of so many antecedents.

Upcoming chapters: Some of these guys who are deemed busts will get dropped. Some of these guys will break out after weeks 4-6. Some maybe not until weeks 8-12. Then the faithful summer hype train engineers will reappear out of nowhere with delayed victory laps. Then a team with Henderson, Harvey, and/or Hampton will go deep into the playoffs because of burgeoning usage and confidence, not to mention fresh legs, and maybe win your league.

 

[zamboni]

I do think the expectations have been raised in recent years with so many rookies coming in and producing right away. Although that is mainly with WRs and TEs, who historically have taken more time to develop.

RBs often produce right away given the nature of the position, and it's surprising with this supposedly historic RB class that it's gotten off to such a slow start.

 

[Smack Tripper]

The most amazing part is how the hype train derails our memory of so many antecedents.

Upcoming chapters: Some of these guys who are deemed busts will get dropped. Some of these guys will break out after weeks 4-6. Some maybe not until weeks 8-12. Then the faithful summer hype train engineers will reappear out of nowhere with delayed victory laps. Then a team with Henderson, Harvey, and/or Hampton will go deep into the playoffs because of burgeoning usage and confidence, not to mention fresh legs, and maybe win your league.

I did see it said, those guys are going to win a lot of consolation brackets

 

[Desert_Power]

Tet McMillan already looks like he belongs

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Seems like every year we see the draft, and get preconceived notions of which veterans will be pushed aside for the shiny new toy that the teams draft.

Guys like Corrum & Trey Benson come to mind. ADP reflected a “changing of the guard” mentality”, with hype building to the point that Corrum went a couple picks before Williams in one of my redraft leagues.

Now Williams is being looked at by the Rams for a contract extension & Corrum could struggle to get touches. Meanwhile Conner is trending in a surprising direction of both health and production, improving his YPC every year for the last couple.

I still believe Benson has a bright future, but barring injury it won’t be 2025.

Those are just a couple of examples of a bigger picture trend I’ve noticed—- we love us some rookies, and we go nuts over them every year post-NFL draft. The natural follow-up to that seems to be the anointing of the new guard, at the expense of incumbent veterans. It’s always great when we’re right, but the hit rate always seems to be lower than expected. It’s a lesson we never seem to learn, and often miss in our evaluations.

Who of this year’s rookie crop do you see as being anointed too quickly, but may end up as a roster clogger for 2025?

I’ll go first: I love everything I’ve seen/read about Arroyo. Fant isn’t exactly Kelce when it comes to incumbent talent, but he is a good athlete, a decent blocker, and can be a solid target. Arroyo seems like a very raw talent who might need a year or two of seasoning. Add in the fact that TEs are often slower to develop at the pro level, it seems like the buzz over Arroyo is a little too buzzy. I’m not saying Fant will be a pro-bowl TE this year, nor am I saying folks shouldn’t draft Arroyo in dynasty. Just feels a stitch early to send Fant out to pasture.

Another player that comes to mind is James. Guerendo looked great last year, and I’m not convinced James will push him down to RB3, or become the starter if CMC misses time. Shanny loved seeing Guerendo slide instead of scoring on not one but 2 game-sealing runs, and that sort of smarts & his much better burst make him a much more likely candidate to hold onto the RB2 job IMO, despite many seemingly preferring James as the SF lottery ticket.

Anoint to disappoint - who ya got?

From a June thread.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Tet McMillan already looks like he belongs

Thats a good one I missed, yes him and Egbuka both coming through

Though Golden looks a ways away

 

[Gally]

Though Golden looks a ways away

I think Golden is more stuck with the situation than him not being ready. GB always spreads around and that will limit Golden this year at least.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Tet McMillan already looks like he belongs

Thats a good one I missed, yes him and Egbuka both coming through

Though Golden looks a ways away

Funny how it used to be the rookie WR's where you felt there was an acclimation process more detailed/involved than RB.

I have said this in other threads...but pass pro is a must at the RB position. I watched Jeanty get blown up last night and while you can see the talent is there...he's having some welcome to the NFL moments. But teams are built around Daniels/Maye/Caleb/Penix...so if you're not trusted here, you're simply going to have your snaps cut because it takes one shot.

I watched Bucky Irving last night, and I know he's Year 2...but you can see a world of difference between him and Jeanty in this area.

But as the season progresses, these guys will get better...so to your point about consolation brackets, well RJ Harvey...we're waiting!

 

[Smack Tripper]

Tet McMillan already looks like he belongs

Thats a good one I missed, yes him and Egbuka both coming through

Though Golden looks a ways away

Funny how it used to be the rookie WR's where you felt there was an acclimation process more detailed/involved than RB.

I have said this in other threads...but pass pro is a must at the RB position. I watched Jeanty get blown up last night and while you can see the talent is there...he's having some welcome to the NFL moments. But teams are built around Daniels/Maye/Caleb/Penix...so if you're not trusted here, you're simply going to have your snaps cut because it takes one shot.

I watched Bucky Irving last night, and I know he's Year 2...but you can see a world of difference between him and Jeanty in this area.

But as the season progresses, these guys will get better...so to your point about consolation brackets, well RJ Harvey...we're waiting!

Excellent points! This is the most actionable thing for next year.

I guess its all about balance, I have one team with Jeanty, Hampton and Henderson, thought I had a steal

But I do agree, logic would dictate at least one will break out once they get acclimated

 

[Smack Tripper]

Not that we weren't warned but I think I'm most flummoxed by the Loveland usage.

I didn't love him as a player though, Warren was the far better specimen in my mind but with that draft capital to not really have a plan with him, is odd.

 

[Desert_Power]

Add Ayomanor to the list of guys who is impressing so far.

Ollie Gordon looks really good but unlikely to have a big impact outside of injury to Achane.

 

[Desert_Power]

Great thread BTW!

 

[jobarules]

Not you Tyler Warren

Just a little surprising to me they basically all look crappy. Was this a bad draft class? I feel like some are with "earn your stripes" coaches so thats part of it.

Jeanty looks good at least, the line stinks

Hampton hasn't looked great and caused a turnover with the game on the line

Henderson living the McDaniel split

Harvey MIA

Kaleb Johnson is slow

Loveland... curious usage.

Don't forget Hunter looks like a JAG (pun intended), Golden barely targeted.

Tet and Egbuka look good.

 

[wlwiles]

Are we thinking Skattebo is going to outcarry Tracy going forward? He had 11 carries to Tracy's 5 yesterday. Fantasy stat line looked good because of the TD but so far he's showing promise.

 

[mjb03003]

Fannin also looks great and his usage has been extremely encouraging.

 

[zamboni]

Not that we weren't warned but I think I'm most flummoxed by the Loveland usage.

I think this one is the least surprising. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago and he's playing alongside a solid TE in Kmet. Loveland's time will probably come but it may not be this year.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Not that we weren't warned but I think I'm most flummoxed by the Loveland usage.

I think this one is the least surprising. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago and he's playing alongside a solid TE in Kmet. Loveland's time will probably come but it may not be this year.

On the surface, I agree, I didn't target him aggressively, I ended up with him in a few leagues but from a coaching standpoint, I just would have expected more scheming

Then again, the line stinks and Williams has been a mixed bag at best, Odonze is breaking out, so there was enough there as you say

 

[Dez]

Reminder Gibbs was being called a bust after 4 few games in his rookie year and he ended up being the #7 RB in PPR PPG in his rookie year.

Gibbs went for 8, 12, 9 and 9 pts then missed 2 games with injury and was proclaimed a huge bust. We know the rest of that story.

I think Henderson compares the closes to Gibbs for someone people are feeling bad about right now.

Gibbs was sharing with Montgomery and Henderson is sharing with Stevenson and it feels pretty much the same low touches were early on Gibbs back then like Henderson now.

The worst part about Jeanty is he is being taken off the field on passing situations and didn't play in the final 4 minutes of the game when it was obvious passing time for the Raiders last year.

Jeanty was supposed to be a clear 3 down back and when the winds early in the offseason were blowing that Mostert would be the 3rd down back I laughed it off as coach speak while it isn't Mostert it is Laube and this is a huge problem for Jeanty.

I have always been very critical of a Rotoballer show I listen to on the way to work from 6 AM ET to 7 AM ET every day because they usually have a lot of terrible advice but they certainly nailed 1 thing when they said they would draft Dobbins over Harvey. This one seemed obvious now in hindsight but clearly wasn't during draft season. I was heavy on JK when he had no team drafting 40% JK in underdog in rounds 16-17 then when he singed I was still drafting JK rounds 11-12 but once redrafts starting happening for my high stakes I went back to Harvey in rounds 4/5/6 while no longer drafting JK in rounds 8/9 range. Harvey has the end of season upside to become huge though so I wouldn't write him off yet you just can't start him until something changes there or JK goes down. Badie being in the mix was not in my plans. Can't split it up 3 ways.

Hampton has not looked anything like I thought he would. Najee wasn't exactly good either until the final grind it out drive to end the game then Najee did look good on that final drive.

I was really high on Skattebo and had him ranked over Tracy all season long until the very end where I let a couple teammates talk me into Tracy which I regret badly now. I think Tracy will still be involved but I kept saying Skattebo was my last year's Bucky Irving (not to that level of success) but the guy who takes the job from the starter at some point. I also barely drafted Skattebo should have stuck to my gut feeling there.

Tuten has looked decent but ETN is doing way better than I thought after sucking so bad last year I was totally off ETN in redraft season took him 1 time in like 50 drafts. Was taking him a lot in underdog early when he was going behind Tuten in rounds 10/11 range.

Judkins looked surprisingly good considering little practice and against Baltimore D on a wrecked offense with a 40 year old QB.

I drafted Judkins 13 times this year in redraft between rounds 10-12 and while I don't feel like he is some league winner that is a solid RB 2 you can start for such a small price.

In my FFPC dynasty league I made the monumental mistake of taking Loveland over Warren. I had Warren ranked over Loveland but all the talk got inside my head about how Warren would struggle with Indy QB's. Probably my most regretful mistake this year considering it is dynasty.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Egbuka looks great. With that said, I wonder if the fantasy rookie premium has just gone too far. I do want to make clear that I'm not talking about best ball leagues with no in season management or transactions ,dynasty leagues, and I'm not talking about leagues that are tied to giant progressive tournaments come fantasy playoff time. For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players. I think that building your core around high priced rookies might limit their potential return on investment, and drafting them high just makes it so that you are depleted of established fantasy players.

 

[Gally]

I think Henderson compares the closes to Gibbs for someone people are feeling bad about right now.

Gibbs was sharing with Montgomery and Henderson is sharing with Stevenson and it feels pretty much the same low touches were early on Gibbs back then like Henderson now

The difference is the coaching staffs and their proclivity to use rookies. Hendo is in a situation where the coach doesn't typically use rookies much. Gibbs just needed to get going and Detroit was going to use him. To me that is a huge difference in situation.

 

[Gally]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

 

[SanDawg]

Great thread. I am one of those fools always chasing the rookies and then not having the patience to see it out. Doing my best this year to hold guys like Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb as I am still winning despite them. Hopefully these guys at least start seeing some more volume. That's my biggest concern right now is the lack of opportunity.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

We're two weeks in. I think there are some great rookie buys out there in re-draft leagues right now.

I know better than to think that any half-competent dynasty manager is going to give me a great deal on Henderson, Hampton, Loveland, Burden, KJ after week 2. If this usage continues closer to mid-season, I'm absolutely going to see if I can make my move on some of these guys in dynasty.

 

[Chardo1]

Are we thinking Skattebo is going to outcarry Tracy going forward? He had 11 carries to Tracy's 5 yesterday. Fantasy stat line looked good because of the TD but so far he's showing promise.

Skattebo is a concussion waiting to happen.

 

[Gally]

I know better than to think that any half-competent dynasty manager is going to give me a great deal on Henderson, Hampton, Loveland, Burden, KJ after week 2. I

You would be surprised how many quarter-competent dynasty managers are out there that will do this.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

Exactly--but sometimes it's tough because so many fantasy experts will hype up these rookie players--which effectively raises their ADP's across most formats. A lot of the research done by home league players is basically an ADP sheet and maybe some research in the form of youtube videos or subscriptions to fantasy football expert sites. I can imagine so many home players seeing Hampton available in the late third just pulilng the trigger and drafting him--even if they had no desire to draft him iniitally--because of the "ADP" value. I'm generally like you---but man-- I can totally understand caving into the lure and hype--as the fantasy experts can lay it on thick. The reality of the situation is that if you draft a rookie in the first/second/third round---it's going to be very difficult for them to return any positive ROI--and even getting neutral value will be difficult.

 

[Dez]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

Last year with that same thought u would not have had Nabers either.

Last year had I taken Nabers over Waddle in the 3rd round I would won $500K instead of $25K.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

Last year with that same thought u would not have had Nabers either.

Last year had I taken Nabers over Waddle in the 3rd round I would won $500K instead of $25K.

so you are playing in a format that is linked to a big tournament/progressive--which is why I stipulated that my stance was regarding standard home leagues.

 

[Gally]

Last year with that same thought u would not have had Nabers either.

And i am fine with that. There are plenty of players in that range that are more likely to continue with what they have shown in the NFL already over an unknown rookie. Of course there are also players that underperform (like your Waddle example) but I would rather take a chance on a guy in those high rounds that have shown they can produce at the NFL level. It is just minimizing the risk.

ETA: in typical home leagues. Tourney's are a different animal. Upside is king there because it's essentially all or nothing with big payouts if they hit.

 

[Zow]

Guys that I like so far and think will perform at or above their ADP:

Tet McMillan
Warren
Cam Ward (seriously looks like he's go "it" - in the non "info" sense)
Woody Marks
Judkins
Jeanty (looks the part even if numbers aren't there yet)
Egbuka

I'm slightly worried about Hampton - though he still passes the eye test. Not sure what to make of Hunter as the Jags just look like, well, the Jags.

I did not buy the hype on Harvey and the Henderson split seemed inevitable to me so their starts are in the neighborhood of what I expected. Loveland looks fine they just have too many mouths to feed and Caleb hasn't taken a step forward like most hoped.

 

[Desert_Power]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

Exactly--but sometimes it's tough because so many fantasy experts will hype up these rookie players--which effectively raises their ADP's across most formats. A lot of the research done by home league players is basically an ADP sheet and maybe some research in the form of youtube videos or subscriptions to fantasy football expert sites. I can imagine so many home players seeing Hampton available in the late third just pulilng the trigger and drafting him--even if they had no desire to draft him iniitally--because of the "ADP" value. I'm generally like you---but man-- I can totally understand caving into the lure and hype--as the fantasy experts can lay it on thick. The reality of the situation is that if you draft a rookie in the first/second/third round---it's going to be very difficult for them to return any positive ROI--and even getting neutral value will be difficult.

Gets even worse when you consider how much those best ball leagues can distort ADP in the early August period.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Guys that I like so far and think will perform at or above their ADP:

Tet McMillan
Warren
Cam Ward (seriously looks like he's go "it" - in the non "info" sense)
Woody Marks
Judkins
Jeanty (looks the part even if numbers aren't there yet)

I'm slightly worried about Hampton - though he still passes the eye test. Not sure what to make of Hunter as the Jags just look like, well, the Jags.

I did not buy the hype on Harvey and the Henderson split seemed inevitable to me so their starts are in the neighborhood of what I expected. Loveland looks fine they just have too many mouths to feed and Caleb hasn't taken a step forward like most hoped.

interesting not to see egbuka on your list

 

[jvdesigns2002]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

Exactly--but sometimes it's tough because so many fantasy experts will hype up these rookie players--which effectively raises their ADP's across most formats. A lot of the research done by home league players is basically an ADP sheet and maybe some research in the form of youtube videos or subscriptions to fantasy football expert sites. I can imagine so many home players seeing Hampton available in the late third just pulilng the trigger and drafting him--even if they had no desire to draft him iniitally--because of the "ADP" value. I'm generally like you---but man-- I can totally understand caving into the lure and hype--as the fantasy experts can lay it on thick. The reality of the situation is that if you draft a rookie in the first/second/third round---it's going to be very difficult for them to return any positive ROI--and even getting neutral value will be difficult.

Gets even worse when you consider how much those best ball leagues can distort ADP in the early August period.

there is just a giant disconnect when it comes to drafting a team where you are hoping to finish in the top 2-3 amongst 12 teams--in a format that involves team management, drops+adds, and trades. When the format or tournament size involves trying to create a team that finishes in the top amongst thousands (or tens of thousands) of teams with little or no in season management/ potentally no trades--you are incentivized to swing for the fences. I imagine a lot of the experts that inflate these rookie/adp values wouldn't do it as much in formats where the max prize is maybe 6-10x the entry fee and you only need to outperform 9 or 11 other opponents.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

This is just not true, at least when it comes to guys like Jeanty.

This was covered in the Jeanty thread, but if you consider RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft in the modern NFL, there is statistically no safer pick in all of fantasy football.

You can pick any subset you like virtually. Last year's vet RB1. Last year's vet top 3 RBs. This year's vet top 3 RBs. Whatever it is. The rookies drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft have a lower bust rate and a higher hit rate. They more often finish in the top 10, more often finish in the top 5, and less often finish outside the top 12 or top 20 or top 30.

Jeanty may buck the trend, but that doesn't really change the numbers. Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

The lone exception was CJ Spiller, 15 years ago.

 

[Desert_Power]

Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

Curious, if you have it handy, what the average finish is.

 

[Statorama]

Add Ayomanor to the list of guys who is impressing so far.

He's really good.

 

[Gally]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

This is just not true, at least when it comes to guys like Jeanty.

This was covered in the Jeanty thread, but if you consider RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft in the modern NFL, there is statistically no safer pick in all of fantasy football.

You can pick any subset you like virtually. Last year's vet RB1. Last year's vet top 3 RBs. This year's vet top 3 RBs. Whatever it is. The rookies drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft have a lower bust rate and a higher hit rate. They more often finish in the top 10, more often finish in the top 5, and less often finish outside the top 12 or top 20 or top 30.

Jeanty may buck the trend, but that doesn't really change the numbers. Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

The lone exception was CJ Spiller, 15 years ago.

My point is that you are drafting him at a spot that he has to be a top 10 RB. You are drafting at ceiling on a player that hasn't had a down in the NFL. There is no room for missing that. I am also passing on WR's in the draft at the point that Jeanty was taken that I would rather have than a rookie RB.

I understand what you are saying but that doesn't take away my point that you are drafting a rookie at his ceiling value and he has to hit that ceiling or it damages your team.

Based on your stats this only applies to NFL top 10 drafted RB's. There aren't many of those so maybe in those few instances I could be talked into looking at them a little more closely but most rookies don't fall into that category yet still are drafted at their ceiling. From an overall drafting a rookie strategy they are generally not good value (with a couple exceptions per your stats).

 

[msudaisy26]

The real list for rookies in fantasy.

Jeanty - looks good, the line looks bad and the Chargers are a tough match up
Hampton - looks bad
Hunter - looks misused and like he has too much on his plate.
McMillan - looks very good
Henderson- very curious usage, doesn't look great or bad just not enough data
Judkins - looked good in a limited action
Harvey - looked okay, but a lot like Henderson
Egbuka- looks great
Warren - awesome
Loveland - weird usage.
Skattebo - looks good had an injury preseason
Tuten - looks good got a rb traded
Kaleb - looks awful
Burden - not enough usage to tell
Golden - meh, needs more usage.
Ward - looks really good and is hurt by his wrs and line
Fannin - looks like a future top 5 tight end
Ayomanor - looks good

Everyone else doesn't really have the usage to pass judgement yet.

I don't think the sky is falling at all, actually through two weeks I would say this class looks above average.

 

[Zow]

Guys that I like so far and think will perform at or above their ADP:

Tet McMillan
Warren
Cam Ward (seriously looks like he's go "it" - in the non "info" sense)
Woody Marks
Judkins
Jeanty (looks the part even if numbers aren't there yet)

I'm slightly worried about Hampton - though he still passes the eye test. Not sure what to make of Hunter as the Jags just look like, well, the Jags.

I did not buy the hype on Harvey and the Henderson split seemed inevitable to me so their starts are in the neighborhood of what I expected. Loveland looks fine they just have too many mouths to feed and Caleb hasn't taken a step forward like most hoped.

interesting not to see egbuka on your list

Total oversight!

Wrote that quickly as I was running late for a meeting.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

This is just not true, at least when it comes to guys like Jeanty.

This was covered in the Jeanty thread, but if you consider RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft in the modern NFL, there is statistically no safer pick in all of fantasy football.

You can pick any subset you like virtually. Last year's vet RB1. Last year's vet top 3 RBs. This year's vet top 3 RBs. Whatever it is. The rookies drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft have a lower bust rate and a higher hit rate. They more often finish in the top 10, more often finish in the top 5, and less often finish outside the top 12 or top 20 or top 30.

Jeanty may buck the trend, but that doesn't really change the numbers. Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

The lone exception was CJ Spiller, 15 years ago.

thats a fair point in the cases of rbs picked in the top 10 of nfl drafts. The most recent that I can remember was Bijan Robinson. His adp in 0.5ppr was 7 and he finished as the rb 9 if you do weeks 1-18. If you do weeks 1-16 (which is what most home fantasy leagues do)--he finsihed as Rb12. That's certainly decent ROI--but I certainly wouldn't call that a steal. To me--I think that in home leagues, thinking about established wr's or rbs--and pairing them with mid/later round rookie rb lotto tickets makes more sense. Players like Kyren williams, bucky irving, chase brown come into mind. WIth that said--your point is valid and you have historical data that backs it up--so I have to respect it.

 

[warpig33]

On the flip side of this, look at all the late round picks/UDFAs that are getting meaningful snaps too. Monangai, JCM, KeAndre Lambert Smith, etc. And then there's the 3rd and 4th Round guys that are getting impressive snap counts. In all my years of watching football, I can't recall a time like this. I think it's great for the game. And now these coaches are trying to gameplan touches for these guys. Don't have to run those early round guys into the ground anymore. Seems like the WRs always get their dough, but with the RB depth, gonna be harder for those early round RBs to get paid.

 

[joey]

In dynasty, I’m dropping all of my rookies for the likes of Renfrow and Thielen.
Careers already decided for these rookies 2 weeks in.

 

[Chemical X]

Fannin also looks great and his usage has been extremely encouraging.

i grabbed fannin late in a rookie draft dynasty. rookie TEs mainly stink, not bowers, but he seems to have something…..football skills.

 

[pinkstapler]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

This is just not true, at least when it comes to guys like Jeanty.

This was covered in the Jeanty thread, but if you consider RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft in the modern NFL, there is statistically no safer pick in all of fantasy football.

You can pick any subset you like virtually. Last year's vet RB1. Last year's vet top 3 RBs. This year's vet top 3 RBs. Whatever it is. The rookies drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft have a lower bust rate and a higher hit rate. They more often finish in the top 10, more often finish in the top 5, and less often finish outside the top 12 or top 20 or top 30.

Jeanty may buck the trend, but that doesn't really change the numbers. Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

The lone exception was CJ Spiller, 15 years ago.

My point is that you are drafting him at a spot that he has to be a top 10 RB. You are drafting at ceiling on a player that hasn't had a down in the NFL. There is no room for missing that. I am also passing on WR's in the draft at the point that Jeanty was taken that I would rather have than a rookie RB.

I understand what you are saying but that doesn't take away my point that you are drafting a rookie at his ceiling value and he has to hit that ceiling or it damages your team.

Based on your stats this only applies to NFL top 10 drafted RB's. There aren't many of those so maybe in those few instances I could be talked into looking at them a little more closely but most rookies don't fall into that category yet still are drafted at their ceiling. From an overall drafting a rookie strategy they are generally not good value (with a couple exceptions per your stats).

I don't care to look up all the exact numbers so feel free to dismiss; but I think if you look into this yourself, or even look up fantasy football analysts who've trended this stuff (I know JJ Zacharison has a couple times over the past few years) rookies are almost always outperforming ADP expectations in redraft. Obviously there will be a few outliers, but they always tended to be the most expensive rookies FWIR a la MHJ his rookie year. So if your point about rookies never providing a value was only about the very rare instances where they are taken in the top 25 picks or so in redraft ADP, sure. But averaged out across all rookies regardless of ADP and position, JJZ and others have shown they have an incredibly high hit rate of giving you more than you paid for them.

 

[Gally]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

This is just not true, at least when it comes to guys like Jeanty.

This was covered in the Jeanty thread, but if you consider RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft in the modern NFL, there is statistically no safer pick in all of fantasy football.

You can pick any subset you like virtually. Last year's vet RB1. Last year's vet top 3 RBs. This year's vet top 3 RBs. Whatever it is. The rookies drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft have a lower bust rate and a higher hit rate. They more often finish in the top 10, more often finish in the top 5, and less often finish outside the top 12 or top 20 or top 30.

Jeanty may buck the trend, but that doesn't really change the numbers. Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

The lone exception was CJ Spiller, 15 years ago.

My point is that you are drafting him at a spot that he has to be a top 10 RB. You are drafting at ceiling on a player that hasn't had a down in the NFL. There is no room for missing that. I am also passing on WR's in the draft at the point that Jeanty was taken that I would rather have than a rookie RB.

I understand what you are saying but that doesn't take away my point that you are drafting a rookie at his ceiling value and he has to hit that ceiling or it damages your team.

Based on your stats this only applies to NFL top 10 drafted RB's. There aren't many of those so maybe in those few instances I could be talked into looking at them a little more closely but most rookies don't fall into that category yet still are drafted at their ceiling. From an overall drafting a rookie strategy they are generally not good value (with a couple exceptions per your stats).

I don't care to look up all the exact numbers so feel free to dismiss; but I think if you look into this yourself, or even look up fantasy football analysts who've trended this stuff (I know JJ Zacharison has a couple times over the past few years) rookies are almost always outperforming ADP expectations in redraft. Obviously there will be a few outliers, but they always tended to be the most expensive rookies FWIR a la MHJ his rookie year. So if your point about rookies never providing a value was only about the very rare instances where they are taken in the top 25 picks or so in redraft ADP, sure. But averaged out across all rookies regardless of ADP and position, JJZ and others have shown they have an incredibly high hit rate of giving you more than you paid for them.

My point was for the first few rookies taken. The MHJ's of the world. (if you look at my first post referenced him and Jeanty as the two most recent examples of ADP getting out of hand). Basically if you take the first couple rookies whose ADP's went too high (call it the Icarus Theory) they have to hit their ceiling to make the pick worth it.

 

[pinkstapler]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

This is just not true, at least when it comes to guys like Jeanty.

This was covered in the Jeanty thread, but if you consider RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft in the modern NFL, there is statistically no safer pick in all of fantasy football.

You can pick any subset you like virtually. Last year's vet RB1. Last year's vet top 3 RBs. This year's vet top 3 RBs. Whatever it is. The rookies drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft have a lower bust rate and a higher hit rate. They more often finish in the top 10, more often finish in the top 5, and less often finish outside the top 12 or top 20 or top 30.

Jeanty may buck the trend, but that doesn't really change the numbers. Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

The lone exception was CJ Spiller, 15 years ago.

My point is that you are drafting him at a spot that he has to be a top 10 RB. You are drafting at ceiling on a player that hasn't had a down in the NFL. There is no room for missing that. I am also passing on WR's in the draft at the point that Jeanty was taken that I would rather have than a rookie RB.

I understand what you are saying but that doesn't take away my point that you are drafting a rookie at his ceiling value and he has to hit that ceiling or it damages your team.

Based on your stats this only applies to NFL top 10 drafted RB's. There aren't many of those so maybe in those few instances I could be talked into looking at them a little more closely but most rookies don't fall into that category yet still are drafted at their ceiling. From an overall drafting a rookie strategy they are generally not good value (with a couple exceptions per your stats).

I don't care to look up all the exact numbers so feel free to dismiss; but I think if you look into this yourself, or even look up fantasy football analysts who've trended this stuff (I know JJ Zacharison has a couple times over the past few years) rookies are almost always outperforming ADP expectations in redraft. Obviously there will be a few outliers, but they always tended to be the most expensive rookies FWIR a la MHJ his rookie year. So if your point about rookies never providing a value was only about the very rare instances where they are taken in the top 25 picks or so in redraft ADP, sure. But averaged out across all rookies regardless of ADP and position, JJZ and others have shown they have an incredibly high hit rate of giving you more than you paid for them.

My point was for the first few rookies taken. The MHJ's of the world. (if you look at my first post referenced him and Jeanty as the two most recent examples of ADP getting out of hand). Basically if you take the first couple rookies whose ADP's went too high (call it the Icarus Theory) they have to hit their ceiling to make the pick worth it.

I get that. And semi agree; at least from the perspective I wasn't in on either MHJ or Jeanty at ADP. But I also just don't love the reasoning of "this rookie 2nd round pick needs to perform at their ceiling in order to make the pick worth it" because I can remove the word rookie from the sentence and it still holds true. So IOW, it doesn't really have the meaning you are trying to attribute to it. Pretty much anyone picked in the first two rounds of a redraft league is priced at their ceiling. This is why there's a debate every year about avoiding volatile and risky players; rookies would certainly be in that group, but so are constantly injured players like a CMC, so are poor value propositions (like a non-rushing QB, or a TE past the top 3 who are realistically the WR2 on their teams, etc.).

Looking back over the past decade + there really aren't that many rookies even being taken that high. MHJ feels like the highest ADP rookie WR I ever remember. And most people justifiably called it out as a red flag. And others in the thread pointed out that rookie RBs taken high first round of the NFL draft justify and have a track record proving out their super high redraft ADP in fantasy. So really what are we talking about? Because otherwise it doesn't feel like we have much a group to talk about. Who other than MHJ and Jeanty (jury is still out on him) have been taken in the first two rounds of redraft and bombed out? It just doesn't feel like something that actually happens for anyone to be making this argument to begin with.

 

[Gally]

For regular home leagues, paying a huge premium for guys like Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, Kaleb has been rough. They were being drafted in positions ahead of really good (sometimes elite) fantasy players that are established. i feel like a lottery ticket rookie can help you win a league if you draft him in the mid/latter rounds to where the solid return on investment occurs when you already have an established core of solid fantasy players.

This is why I will never have the Jeanty's or MHJ's. They just go way too high and are being drafted at best case scenario value where they really have no upside. Not a good way to win a typical league. Just way too much downside in a round that hurts bad when they don't live up to the cost.

This is just not true, at least when it comes to guys like Jeanty.

This was covered in the Jeanty thread, but if you consider RBs drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft in the modern NFL, there is statistically no safer pick in all of fantasy football.

You can pick any subset you like virtually. Last year's vet RB1. Last year's vet top 3 RBs. This year's vet top 3 RBs. Whatever it is. The rookies drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft have a lower bust rate and a higher hit rate. They more often finish in the top 10, more often finish in the top 5, and less often finish outside the top 12 or top 20 or top 30.

Jeanty may buck the trend, but that doesn't really change the numbers. Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

The lone exception was CJ Spiller, 15 years ago.

My point is that you are drafting him at a spot that he has to be a top 10 RB. You are drafting at ceiling on a player that hasn't had a down in the NFL. There is no room for missing that. I am also passing on WR's in the draft at the point that Jeanty was taken that I would rather have than a rookie RB.

I understand what you are saying but that doesn't take away my point that you are drafting a rookie at his ceiling value and he has to hit that ceiling or it damages your team.

Based on your stats this only applies to NFL top 10 drafted RB's. There aren't many of those so maybe in those few instances I could be talked into looking at them a little more closely but most rookies don't fall into that category yet still are drafted at their ceiling. From an overall drafting a rookie strategy they are generally not good value (with a couple exceptions per your stats).

I don't care to look up all the exact numbers so feel free to dismiss; but I think if you look into this yourself, or even look up fantasy football analysts who've trended this stuff (I know JJ Zacharison has a couple times over the past few years) rookies are almost always outperforming ADP expectations in redraft. Obviously there will be a few outliers, but they always tended to be the most expensive rookies FWIR a la MHJ his rookie year. So if your point about rookies never providing a value was only about the very rare instances where they are taken in the top 25 picks or so in redraft ADP, sure. But averaged out across all rookies regardless of ADP and position, JJZ and others have shown they have an incredibly high hit rate of giving you more than you paid for them.

My point was for the first few rookies taken. The MHJ's of the world. (if you look at my first post referenced him and Jeanty as the two most recent examples of ADP getting out of hand). Basically if you take the first couple rookies whose ADP's went too high (call it the Icarus Theory) they have to hit their ceiling to make the pick worth it.

I get that. And semi agree; at least from the perspective I wasn't in on either MHJ or Jeanty at ADP. But I also just don't love the reasoning of "this rookie 2nd round pick needs to perform at their ceiling in order to make the pick worth it" because I can remove the word rookie from the sentence and it still holds true. So IOW, it doesn't really have the meaning you are trying to attribute to it. Pretty much anyone picked in the first two rounds of a redraft league is priced at their ceiling. This is why there's a debate every year about avoiding volatile and risky players; rookies would certainly be in that group, but so are constantly injured players like a CMC, so are poor value propositions (like a non-rushing QB, or a TE past the top 3 who are realistically the WR2 on their teams, etc.).

But with rookies you have never seen them do it. Nobody really knows anything about rookies. With guys that have done it before there is history which shows they can do it.

The JJ piece you referenced about rookies being good value is because for the later round guys there is a ceiling that is unkown so the value is built it taking them later. That unkowns upside makes it worthwhile to take them later because the risk of not hitting that isn't that big of deal.

However with early round rookies that risk (which is generally more likely with a rookie to happen) doesn't make the high pick worth it IMO. I mean all of this is just guesses and probabilities. You can cherry pick any player to prove your point. When speaking in generalities if a rookie is being picked at their ceiling then it isn't worth the risk to me to take the rookie when there are other more proven players also available with less risk of just missing because they have done it before. That is essentially my entire argument.

 

[Chaka]

Going back almost 20 years, 12 of the last 13 RBs picked in the top 10 of the NFL draft finished as a top 10 fantasy RB as a rookie.

Curious, if you have it handy, what the average finish is.

I don't have it "handy" but I broke it down in the Jeanty thread. RBs drafted in the top 10 average something like 1,500 yards and 10 TDs, I want to say with 30+ receptions but the memory is a bit fuzzy.