While I think Rudi's a very sound choice, I think people kinda jump the gun when they say he is incredibly low risk. Chris Perry is very talented...what if Rudi gets sidelined for a bit and Perry shines for 2 games or so? As we've seen before, in those cases coaches often love to 'reward' the 2nd rb by going to a form of RBBC.....and since Rudi doesn't catch the ball, dropping to even a 60-40 split with Perry could be devestating.
Anything can happen but I would prefer to speculate based on what we've clearly seen happen already. To whit: Rudi has proven to be very durable. If you're going to be wary of a RB under the "What if he gets hurt" scenario than no RB in the league is safe since all of them could get hurt. Secondly, Perry has yet to prove he can stay healthy for an entire season. Third, as shown above, Perry has not proven to be a threat in terms of vulturing goal-line scores - a critical element IMO when evaluating RB production and potential. Despite Perry's emergence last season, Rudi still remained the primary ballcarrier and he still put up terrific numbers. What would prompt the Bengals to shift away from what's clearly proven to work?
Cadillac and Ronnie Brown are slightly less proven, and more of an injury risk....but they don't have vultures like Perry to worry about. 2 games missed for Brown is just that....but for Rudi? Could make him into a glorified Julius Jones 05......
Brown doesn't but Cadillac still has Pittman and Alstott as well. Like Rudi, Cadillac isn't a good receiver whereas Brown is pretty much a lock to be an every-down threat. The differences I see between these three are durability issues and Rudi being on a much more potent offense than either Williams or Brown. I'll take Rudi over both of them. The debate I'm having is whether I want to take Rudi over Steven Jackson, who I believe could blow up in a big way this year. But admittedly, if I go for Jackson I'll be doing so with the hope of upside paying off while realizing that I'm passing on the safer choice who could prove to be the better choice. And in the first round, that's not a place where you want to make the wrong call.