Running Back flying under the Radar (1 Viewer)

[zilladog]

I simply don't trust him to:

1. Stay healthy for any significant length,

2. Be used as much more than a Sproles type receiving scat back,

3. Stay healthy for any significant length,

4. Play well vs. good teams,

5. Stay healthy for any significant length.

I'll take the unknown in Dan Thomas. And yes, he is still an unknown. Playing all but 2 of your games with an injured hammy doesn't exactly close the book on a 2nd rd pick. Especially when he averaged Over 100 yds a game and almost 5 ypc in the 2 games that he was healthy in.

 

[Chazzhawk]

6 years in the league = a possible 96 career games. He has missed 21 games and it isn't like he missed 14 of them in one year. Not to mention he was on one of the best offenses in the league and for the first 5 years and he was very average for most of it. I am not buying, and I can't believe people are because of a decent 8 game straight, which at the end of it he got hurt, as usual.

 

[hotboyz]

6 years in the league = a possible 96 career games. He has missed 21 games and it isn't like he missed 14 of them in one year. Not to mention he was on one of the best offenses in the league and for the first 5 years and he was very average for most of it. I am not buying, and I can't believe people are because of a decent 8 game straight, which at the end of it he got hurt, as usual.

It happens in the Nfl where it takes a player a few yrs to get it Thomas jones Tiki Barber. Go back and look at Tiki Babers first 6 seasonshttp://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm?mobile=false

 

[Tybeeman]

Bush finished 12th in standard Zealots (non PPR) scoring last season in 15 games. He did not play vs the Jets. Rushing 225/1100/8; 4.8 YPC; receiving 43/296/1; 11.53 YPC. Theirs a new regime in Miami, but Bush is the best weapon on offense that they have. I don't believe for a moment that they change direction or philosophy and not do everything they can to get their best playmaker the ball as often as possible.

Reggie will never ever live up to all the hype he got coming out of college; which doesn't surprise me as I'm not sure anyone else could have either. But in the middle rounds of a fantasy draft he's a solid option as your RB2 and a fantastic RB3, who could easily put up RB1 type numbers.

My $0.02

 

[hotboyz]

Bush finished 12th in standard Zealots (non PPR) scoring last season in 15 games. He did not play vs the Jets. Rushing 225/1100/8; 4.8 YPC; receiving 43/296/1; 11.53 YPC. Theirs a new regime in Miami, but Bush is the best weapon on offense that they have. I don't believe for a moment that they change direction or philosophy and not do everything they can to get their best playmaker the ball as often as possible. Reggie will never ever live up to all the hype he got coming out of college; which doesn't surprise me as I'm not sure anyone else could have either. But in the middle rounds of a fantasy draft he's a solid option as your RB2 and a fantastic RB3, who could easily put up RB1 type numbers.My $0.02

Exactly and he finishe #12 in ya league in a non PPR now put him on a league with PPR and on a team with no wr and a rookie QB I think 60 rec is his floor he may catch 80 passes this yr!

 

[Banger]

If his name was John Smith and not Reggie Bush he'd be getting a lot more love. Fine by me as he's likely being drafted around his floor.

 

[zilladog]

If his name was John Smith and not Reggie Bush he'd be getting a lot more love. Fine by me as he's likely being drafted around his floor.

That's because he has 6 years of history to draw from. Could we be on the verge of a "new and improved and healthy" Reggie in Miami? Sure we could. Do you really want to count on that? Tiki Barber is the exception, not the rule.

 

[Banger]

If his name was John Smith and not Reggie Bush he'd be getting a lot more love. Fine by me as he's likely being drafted around his floor.

That's because he has 6 years of history to draw from. Could we be on the verge of a "new and improved and healthy" Reggie in Miami? Sure we could. Do you really want to count on that? Tiki Barber is the exception, not the rule.

it's not as if you are taking him as a RB1...he's being taken right around Shonne Greene near the bottom of RB2's. Look at M. Lynch...he was a bust, washed up and an after thought...same with Benson several years ago, Vick, etc.....it happens all the time where people feel the books have been written on players but they get in a different situation, get healthy, see the light, whatever it is. Based on his talent, the situation, role in the offense and his draft position I see him as a pretty safe pick.

 

[RBM]

If his name was John Smith and not Reggie Bush he'd be getting a lot more love. Fine by me as he's likely being drafted around his floor.

That's because he has 6 years of history to draw from. Could we be on the verge of a "new and improved and healthy" Reggie in Miami? Sure we could. Do you really want to count on that? Tiki Barber is the exception, not the rule.

it's not as if you are taking him as a RB1...he's being taken right around Shonne Greene near the bottom of RB2's. Look at M. Lynch...he was a bust, washed up and an after thought...same with Benson several years ago, Vick, etc.....it happens all the time where people feel the books have been written on players but they get in a different situation, get healthy, see the light, whatever it is. Based on his talent, the situation, role in the offense and his draft position I see him as a pretty safe pick.

Very

 

[baconisgood]

He missed one game last year and touched the ball 20 + times in only 4 games.

On the other hand he had 18+ touches in 9 games and 11+ touches in 14 games. 15 touches a game at 5 yards a touch + and a hair under 0.5 TDs a game (roughly his career average) is 10+ points a game.

 

[LOCO]

rather have willis mcghaee.

 

[zilladog]

I'll admit that as long as your not over drafting him and your not counting on him to be any more than an rb3/flex, than he's worth taking a shot on him. I could see him being drafted as an rb2 if your going with an upside down draft and waiting till late to take your rb's. Just make sure you have 2 or 3 other Reggie Bush types as depth.

I too, would rather have McGahee.

 

[hotboyz]

I'll admit that as long as your not over drafting him and your not counting on him to be any more than an rb3/flex, than he's worth taking a shot on him. I could see him being drafted as an rb2 if your going with an upside down draft and waiting till late to take your rb's. Just make sure you have 2 or 3 other Reggie Bush types as depth. I too, would rather have McGahee.

I really like McGahee too but in a PPR Bush is the pick

 

[baconisgood]

I'll admit that as long as your not over drafting him and your not counting on him to be any more than an rb3/flex, than he's worth taking a shot on him. I could see him being drafted as an rb2 if your going with an upside down draft and waiting till late to take your rb's. Just make sure you have 2 or 3 other Reggie Bush types as depth. I too, would rather have McGahee.

I think there is at least as much risk with McGahee as there is with Bush, maybe more. Lead backs under Manning tend to average 2-3 receptions a game. (Quick count) Total RB receptions in 2008 for Ind- 75, 2009 67, 2010 55. Mcgahee hasn't even average 1 full reception per game the past 3 seasons. I worry that there will be a lot of packages where he just isn't on the field and he will end up being an 8-10 carry a game guy.

 

[Banger]

I'll admit that as long as your not over drafting him and your not counting on him to be any more than an rb3/flex, than he's worth taking a shot on him. I could see him being drafted as an rb2 if your going with an upside down draft and waiting till late to take your rb's. Just make sure you have 2 or 3 other Reggie Bush types as depth. I too, would rather have McGahee.

I like McGahee also but think Bush will be more of a focal point, 3 down back than McGahee will. I probably have Bush only a couple spots higher.

 

[Chazzhawk]

6 years in the league = a possible 96 career games. He has missed 21 games and it isn't like he missed 14 of them in one year. Not to mention he was on one of the best offenses in the league and for the first 5 years and he was very average for most of it. I am not buying, and I can't believe people are because of a decent 8 game straight, which at the end of it he got hurt, as usual.

It happens in the Nfl where it takes a player a few yrs to get it Thomas jones Tiki Barber. Go back and look at Tiki Babers first 6 seasonshttp://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm?mobile=false

You are missing the biggest stat of all.Tiki Barber first 6 years = 6 missed gamesThomas Jones first 6 years = 12 missed games (7 of them in 2002)Reggie Bush first 6 years = 21 missed games

 

[hotboyz]

6 years in the league = a possible 96 career games. He has missed 21 games and it isn't like he missed 14 of them in one year. Not to mention he was on one of the best offenses in the league and for the first 5 years and he was very average for most of it. I am not buying, and I can't believe people are because of a decent 8 game straight, which at the end of it he got hurt, as usual.

It happens in the Nfl where it takes a player a few yrs to get it Thomas jones Tiki Barber. Go back and look at Tiki Babers first 6 seasonshttp://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm?mobile=false

You are missing the biggest stat of all.Tiki Barber first 6 years = 6 missed gamesThomas Jones first 6 years = 12 missed games (7 of them in 2002)Reggie Bush first 6 years = 21 missed games

I forgot one Tiki first 6 yrs 527 carries Reggie Bush 740 seems he had a lot more chances to get injured BUSH WILL BE A BEAST THIS SEASON!!

 

[CalBear]

Hey Diamond you got it the next season all we heard was how jamaal Charles would be a good draft pick seems to me these guys have similar skill sets

I dont know how on earth you are trying to compare Jamaal Charles with Reggie Bush. Charles has "track speed" because...well he was on the track team in college.

Bush ran a 10.42 100m in high school. He could have been on the track team and presumably would have bettered his high school time in college. Charles ran a 10.18, which might be a little faster but not a lot. Bush had a faster 40 time at the combine (4.33 to 4.36). They are similarly fast.

 

[chickensoup]

Not at this point in their careers. And there is a very large difference between 10.42 and 10.18 in track. That's the difference between first and like 5th or 6th at least.

Bush has a good situation that's for sure but he is just not the homerun hitter Charles is in the NFL. College against generally weak opponents? Sure bush was awesome. But the NFL is a different beast.

I'm willing to draft Bush, but I'm not expecting anything more than RB 15-18 or so. His biggest plus is the schedule he has likely not forcing the dolphins to throw 40x a game. The dolphins also have 2 other young RB on their team that the front office might want to see more of in Thomas and Miller.

 

[Chazzhawk]

6 years in the league = a possible 96 career games. He has missed 21 games and it isn't like he missed 14 of them in one year. Not to mention he was on one of the best offenses in the league and for the first 5 years and he was very average for most of it. I am not buying, and I can't believe people are because of a decent 8 game straight, which at the end of it he got hurt, as usual.

It happens in the Nfl where it takes a player a few yrs to get it Thomas jones Tiki Barber. Go back and look at Tiki Babers first 6 seasonshttp://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm?mobile=false

You are missing the biggest stat of all.Tiki Barber first 6 years = 6 missed gamesThomas Jones first 6 years = 12 missed games (7 of them in 2002)Reggie Bush first 6 years = 21 missed games

I forgot one Tiki first 6 yrs 527 carries Reggie Bush 740 seems he had a lot more chances to get injured BUSH WILL BE A BEAST THIS SEASON!!

213 carries over 6 years lol seriously. So about 35 carries a season, or 2 carries a game.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'll admit that as long as your not over drafting him and your not counting on him to be any more than an rb3/flex, than he's worth taking a shot on him. I could see him being drafted as an rb2 if your going with an upside down draft and waiting till late to take your rb's. Just make sure you have 2 or 3 other Reggie Bush types as depth. I too, would rather have McGahee.

I think there is at least as much risk with McGahee as there is with Bush, maybe more. Lead backs under Manning tend to average 2-3 receptions a game. (Quick count) Total RB receptions in 2008 for Ind- 75, 2009 67, 2010 55. Mcgahee hasn't even average 1 full reception per game the past 3 seasons. I worry that there will be a lot of packages where he just isn't on the field and he will end up being an 8-10 carry a game guy.

it's true bush has the potential to catch 20 more balls, but I have no idea what makes you think mcgahee can't catch the football.who do you think gets subbed in for mcgahee and why?

 

[hotboyz]

6 years in the league = a possible 96 career games. He has missed 21 games and it isn't like he missed 14 of them in one year. Not to mention he was on one of the best offenses in the league and for the first 5 years and he was very average for most of it. I am not buying, and I can't believe people are because of a decent 8 game straight, which at the end of it he got hurt, as usual.

It happens in the Nfl where it takes a player a few yrs to get it Thomas jones Tiki Barber. Go back and look at Tiki Babers first 6 seasonshttp://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarbTi00.htm?mobile=false

You are missing the biggest stat of all.Tiki Barber first 6 years = 6 missed gamesThomas Jones first 6 years = 12 missed games (7 of them in 2002)Reggie Bush first 6 years = 21 missed games

I forgot one Tiki first 6 yrs 527 carries Reggie Bush 740 seems he had a lot more chances to get injured BUSH WILL BE A BEAST THIS SEASON!!

213 carries over 6 years lol seriously. So about 35 carries a season, or 2 carries a game.

What? Where U get that number from?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'm gonna guess he got it from 740-537

 

[CalBear]

Not at this point in their careers. And there is a very large difference between 10.42 and 10.18 in track. That's the difference between first and like 5th or 6th at least.

There's also a very large difference between a 17-year-old and a 20-year-old.

Bush has a good situation that's for sure but he is just not the homerun hitter Charles is in the NFL. College against generally weak opponents? Sure bush was awesome. But the NFL is a different beast.

Bush isn't a home run hitter because he dances too much, not because he lacks speed.

 

[hotboyz]

Not at this point in their careers. And there is a very large difference between 10.42 and 10.18 in track. That's the difference between first and like 5th or 6th at least.

There's also a very large difference between a 17-year-old and a 20-year-old.

Bush has a good situation that's for sure but he is just not the homerun hitter Charles is in the NFL. College against generally weak opponents? Sure bush was awesome. But the NFL is a different beast.

Bush isn't a home run hitter because he dances too much, not because he lacks speed.

If you watched bush last yr you noticed he changed his running style he became a very aggressive runner with the ball in his hands he does not dance as much now he's in a uptempo offense who is gonna employ zone blocking system! Perfect storm brewing!!

 

[baconisgood]

I'll admit that as long as your not over drafting him and your not counting on him to be any more than an rb3/flex, than he's worth taking a shot on him. I could see him being drafted as an rb2 if your going with an upside down draft and waiting till late to take your rb's. Just make sure you have 2 or 3 other Reggie Bush types as depth. I too, would rather have McGahee.

I think there is at least as much risk with McGahee as there is with Bush, maybe more. Lead backs under Manning tend to average 2-3 receptions a game. (Quick count) Total RB receptions in 2008 for Ind- 75, 2009 67, 2010 55. Mcgahee hasn't even average 1 full reception per game the past 3 seasons. I worry that there will be a lot of packages where he just isn't on the field and he will end up being an 8-10 carry a game guy.

it's true bush has the potential to catch 20 more balls, but I have no idea what makes you think mcgahee can't catch the football.who do you think gets subbed in for mcgahee and why?

1. Its not lock, its a risk. The same way Bush's injuries are a risk. 2. McGahee hasn't been used as a pass catching back for years. 8 seasons in the league and he has caught 30+ balls once. 31 year old RBs generally don't triple their targets all of a sudden. His y/r has also been poor over his career and has been down right terrible the past 3 seasons. 3. As far as replacements Hillman (assuming a healthy hammy) has a good shot to pick up work in that offense, and Moreno later in the season if that doesn't work out.

 

[VaTerp]

Bush is flying under the radar in terms of who's being talked about this summer. But his ADP of 4.02 in PPR/Flex leagues according to FF Calculator tells me that he is not undervalued at all.

Bush is a hard guy for me to get a read on.

How will new coaching staff use him?

Distribution of touches among Rbs?

Does Miami's lack of threats at WR hurt or help him?

What kind of QB play will they get?

And all those are without even talking about the questions about Bush himself-

Can he build on last year's success and really take advantage of the opportunities he has in what could be the prime years of his career?

Can he have another relatively healthy season?

A lot of questions about Bush this year, as there are with so many RBs. But I just don't have a good sense one way or the other with him. IMO he has one of the biggest floor to ceiling ranges headed into the season.

 

[bostonfred]

IMO he has one of the biggest floor to ceiling ranges headed into the season.

This is why I like him. Name the running backs who get the kind of touches to be high end studs. Rice, foster and mccoy are all top three picks and you have to pay the price for them. Mcfadden and chris johnson have moved up so much you're paying early first round prices for guys with huge question marks. Steven jackson gets the touches but you worry that he's on a bad offense. Then you get into guys like jamaal charles who might not even get half the touches on a good but not great team, and darren sproles who is in a three way backfield, had insane numbers as a pass catching back and has to repeat or close to it to earn back his draft spot. But then you get into the third and fourth rounds and see guys like mathews, wells and bush, and they're going rounds later than the guys I just mentioned, because of legitimate injury risk. But which one of the guys I mentioned isn't a risk? Charles? Mcfadden? But if you look at how beanie started last year, he was a legit top end rb1 for the first few games until he got hurt. Mathews was rb7 in 14 games. And bush was as hot as anyone in the second half, and has upside since he split too many carries early in the season and wasn't used as much in the passing game as he likely will be this year. The dolphins used him exclusively on inside running plays in their first preseason game and he responded with four for 20 including a 12 yarder. That's absolutely enormous when you're trying to earn the trust of the new coach and you alreasy have a reputation for being good at the outside and pass catching stuff. For my money, give me a couple studs in the early rounds, and let me swing for the fences with late round potential gems, even if they're risky. Especially in formats like the ffpc where you want to have the highest scoring overall team when all is said and done. If things work well for these guys - and there are obviously risks - you risk a fourth roundish pick for first round value. That's how you win.

 

[VaTerp]

IMO he has one of the biggest floor to ceiling ranges headed into the season.

This is why I like him. Name the running backs who get the kind of touches to be high end studs. Rice, foster and mccoy are all top three picks and you have to pay the price for them. Mcfadden and chris johnson have moved up so much you're paying early first round prices for guys with huge question marks. Steven jackson gets the touches but you worry that he's on a bad offense. Then you get into guys like jamaal charles who might not even get half the touches on a good but not great team, and darren sproles who is in a three way backfield, had insane numbers as a pass catching back and has to repeat or close to it to earn back his draft spot. But then you get into the third and fourth rounds and see guys like mathews, wells and bush, and they're going rounds later than the guys I just mentioned, because of legitimate injury risk. But which one of the guys I mentioned isn't a risk? Charles? Mcfadden? But if you look at how beanie started last year, he was a legit top end rb1 for the first few games until he got hurt. Mathews was rb7 in 14 games. And bush was as hot as anyone in the second half, and has upside since he split too many carries early in the season and wasn't used as much in the passing game as he likely will be this year. The dolphins used him exclusively on inside running plays in their first preseason game and he responded with four for 20 including a 12 yarder. That's absolutely enormous when you're trying to earn the trust of the new coach and you alreasy have a reputation for being good at the outside and pass catching stuff. For my money, give me a couple studs in the early rounds, and let me swing for the fences with late round potential gems, even if they're risky. Especially in formats like the ffpc where you want to have the highest scoring overall team when all is said and done. If things work well for these guys - and there are obviously risks - you risk a fourth roundish pick for first round value. That's how you win.

Absolutely so many questions about all of the RBs after the top 3 and the price you have to pay to get in on McFadden and CJ2K.I guess I just have more questions about Bush b/c I'm late in my prep this year and haven't taken time to study his situation enough. Thanks for sharing good info.