Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Ryan Grant Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

260/1066/7 20/145/1

Never been a fan of Grant and think he could be easily overtaken....however the Packers don't have much talent behind him.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Grant's stat line the past 2 years:

2009: 282 carries for 1253 yds (4.4 ypc), 11 TDs; 25 catches for 197 yds (7.9 ypc), 0 TDs

2008: 312 carries for 1203 yds (3.9 ypc), 4 TDs; 18 catches for 116 yds (6.4 ypc), 1 TD

* Note that the last 3 games of 2009 were odd, with 2 blowouts (48-10 vs Seattle, 33-7 vs Arizona), and 1 shootout (37-36 Pittsburgh). In those games, Grant had 35 carries total. In the other 13 games, he had 247 (19 per game).

Let's face it, there is nobody else on this team who provides a running threat. Brandon Jackson is, at best, a solid 3rd-down back. Could rookie James Starks steal some carries? Sure, I guess, maybe. At this point, we haven't seen anything from him, so it's unrealistic to think he challenges Grant for major PT.

Against that backdrop, I expect Grant to get the bulk of carries again. Major assumptions:

> 18 carries per game

> 4.2 yds per carry

> 0.6 TDs per game (closer to 2009 avg than 2008 avg)

> 1.3 catches per game

> 7.0 yds per catch

Projection: 288 carries, 1210 yds, 10 TDs; 21 catches, 147 yds, 0 TDs

As a Packer fan, I see Grant as a solid performer, but basically he's just a guy. He doesn't create opportunities unless the O-line opens a hole. Sometime very soon, he'll be suddenly replaced, though that probably won't be until 2011. Maybe he holds on in a major RBBC during 2011 and is replaced in 2012. Depends on how Starks progresses - and what TT does in the draft next year.

 

[Restricted]

I expect a slight increase in goal line carries this year instead of Rogers rushing for 5 TD, keeping his TD total in the double digits.

273/1200/10

20/180/1

 

[Garts]

good RB that flies under the radar and is a perfect RB2.

292/1255/11

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I'll predict he will be undervalued. AGAIN. It's amazing really. Sometimes a guy gets a fantasy "rep", and almost no matter what he does he can't shake it.

I'll repeat a portion of what I said in this thread from March.

-----------------------------------------

Seems like I read all the time how Green Bay is looking to replace him, and no one would even CONSIDER him in the first round of a fantasy draft. Folks just seem to be really down on his talent level in general.

But I'm not sure all of that makes much sense.

Grant was one of the most effective runners in the NFL last year, running against one of the toughest running strength of schedules. Can you really do that without any talent?

According to DVOA (which I know isn't perfect, but is fairly revealing IMO), Grant was 13% more effective than the average back in the same circumstances. Johnson, with his record breaking year, was about 15% more effective to give you a feel for where that stands. He carried a 4.44 average, had ZERO fumbles on the year, is relatively cheap, and at 27 years old is just entering his prime. He had 6 TDs in his last 4 regular season games, and then was VERY effective despite limited carries in his one playoff game.

Looking back a little bit, you notice that he's had 1200+ yards for two years in a row, and had 900 yards in his rookie year with only 7 starts. He was hurt in 2008, and his production suffered. But he was still out there and was still reasonably effective. Do you know how many backs had 1200+ rushing in both of the last two years? Three; ADP, Thomas Jones, and Ryan Grant.

Why exactly would Green Bay be going out of their way to replace this guy? Is RB REALLY their biggest need? I just don't get the general perception on Grant.

I'm not saying he's the best RB in the NFL or even top 3 or 4, but I do think he's at LEAST an average starting RB talent in a pretty good situation and I don't think his current fantasy value (particularly in dynasty) reflects that. A lot of folks are waiting for him to get replaced, and I'm not sure that's going to happen any time soon.

Then a followup here:

I don't think he has the talent. Just a product of being in a decent offense. Easily replaced, and I mean easily.

This is the exact perception I am talking about. Why do you think that? I've just shown that he has better than average production compared to his peers in the same circumstances (that's what DVOA measures). And if you look at the other backs on his team, he is significantly better than everyone else on the roster, despite all of them likely have more favorable opportunities (3rd downs etc).

Then, on one side people are put off by the "passing offense", and on the other folks seem convinced that his numbers are inflated by being on a "decent offense". Being on a good offense helps, but I'm not convinced you could just plug in any old backup RB off the street and have him run for 4.44 and 1200 yards behind that line.

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

-------------------------------------

I'm not much of a projections guy, but I'll say he does a little better than last year (the run blocking might be a bit better), which was pretty darn good.

 

[Thomsen]

I'll predict he will be undervalued. AGAIN. It's amazing really. Sometimes a guy gets a fantasy "rep", and almost no matter what he does he can't shake it.

I'll repeat a portion of what I said in this thread from March.

-----------------------------------------

Seems like I read all the time how Green Bay is looking to replace him, and no one would even CONSIDER him in the first round of a fantasy draft. Folks just seem to be really down on his talent level in general.

But I'm not sure all of that makes much sense.

Grant was one of the most effective runners in the NFL last year, running against one of the toughest running strength of schedules. Can you really do that without any talent?

According to DVOA (which I know isn't perfect, but is fairly revealing IMO), Grant was 13% more effective than the average back in the same circumstances. Johnson, with his record breaking year, was about 15% more effective to give you a feel for where that stands. He carried a 4.44 average, had ZERO fumbles on the year, is relatively cheap, and at 27 years old is just entering his prime. He had 6 TDs in his last 4 regular season games, and then was VERY effective despite limited carries in his one playoff game.

Looking back a little bit, you notice that he's had 1200+ yards for two years in a row, and had 900 yards in his rookie year with only 7 starts. He was hurt in 2008, and his production suffered. But he was still out there and was still reasonably effective. Do you know how many backs had 1200+ rushing in both of the last two years? Three; ADP, Thomas Jones, and Ryan Grant.

Why exactly would Green Bay be going out of their way to replace this guy? Is RB REALLY their biggest need? I just don't get the general perception on Grant.

I'm not saying he's the best RB in the NFL or even top 3 or 4, but I do think he's at LEAST an average starting RB talent in a pretty good situation and I don't think his current fantasy value (particularly in dynasty) reflects that. A lot of folks are waiting for him to get replaced, and I'm not sure that's going to happen any time soon.

Then a followup here:

I don't think he has the talent. Just a product of being in a decent offense. Easily replaced, and I mean easily.

This is the exact perception I am talking about. Why do you think that? I've just shown that he has better than average production compared to his peers in the same circumstances (that's what DVOA measures). And if you look at the other backs on his team, he is significantly better than everyone else on the roster, despite all of them likely have more favorable opportunities (3rd downs etc).

Then, on one side people are put off by the "passing offense", and on the other folks seem convinced that his numbers are inflated by being on a "decent offense". Being on a good offense helps, but I'm not convinced you could just plug in any old backup RB off the street and have him run for 4.44 and 1200 yards behind that line.

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

-------------------------------------

I'm not much of a projections guy, but I'll say he does a little better than last year (the run blocking might be a bit better), which was pretty darn good.

Totally agree, what does this guy have to do to earn respect? I think I picked him at 3.14 last season and he was a big part of my championship team. The O-line had all sorts of problems, and Grant kept on producing. He's not the highlight reel most people want, but upside and big plays isn't everything. I like solid, constant players on my roster. Players I can count on every week. Grant is that kind of guy. With the Packers only getting better, and the O-line being healthy, I expect Grant to be even better this season.

 

[jwb]

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

That handful of weeks where he gets you big FF points. That's what he's missing - the elite guys get you solid double digits all the time (as does Grant), but they also throw in a 28+ point game a few times a year, too. That's why the fantasy perception of him is what it is - Grant rarely gives you that huge game.

 

[gianmarco]

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

That handful of weeks where he gets you big FF points. That's what he's missing - the elite guys get you solid double digits all the time (as does Grant), but they also throw in a 28+ point game a few times a year, too. That's why the fantasy perception of him is what it is - Grant rarely gives you that huge game.

You mean like the 22 points in week 7 when he ran for almost 150 yds and a TD? Or maybe the 23 pts in week 11. Maybe the 28 pts in the fantasy playoffs in week 14? Or the 22 pts in week 16 in most fantasy championship games? Factor in that he had double digits in 13 of 16 weeks for the year and I'm not sure what there isn't to love. For comparison's sake, Steven Jackson only had 4 games over 20 pts himself all year. Sure, he's not Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, but he's also a fraction of the cost of those guys.

 

[jwb]

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

That handful of weeks where he gets you big FF points. That's what he's missing - the elite guys get you solid double digits all the time (as does Grant), but they also throw in a 28+ point game a few times a year, too. That's why the fantasy perception of him is what it is - Grant rarely gives you that huge game.

You mean like the 22 points in week 7 when he ran for almost 150 yds and a TD? Or maybe the 23 pts in week 11. Maybe the 28 pts in the fantasy playoffs in week 14? Or the 22 pts in week 16 in most fantasy championship games? Factor in that he had double digits in 13 of 16 weeks for the year and I'm not sure what there isn't to love. For comparison's sake, Steven Jackson only had 4 games over 20 pts himself all year. Sure, he's not Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, but he's also a fraction of the cost of those guys.

But that's what I mean though - Grant is never getting you that big, sexy game. For Grant, 22-28 is about the best you are getting. That's his huge game. That's why the perception of him is what it is. And there's nothing wrong with that. I didn't mean to imply that there was - he's a solid, workman-like RB2 who's welcome on my fantasy teams.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

That handful of weeks where he gets you big FF points. That's what he's missing - the elite guys get you solid double digits all the time (as does Grant), but they also throw in a 28+ point game a few times a year, too. That's why the fantasy perception of him is what it is - Grant rarely gives you that huge game.

In week 14 (either end of regular season for many or the first round of playoffs) he gave you 137 yards and 2 TDs on the ground and threw in 7 yards receiving. In week 16 (many league's bowl game), he gave you 97 and 2 TDs.

What exactly are you looking for?

He isn't Chris Johnson, but outside of that, he's in the same league as everyone else in terms of "big games". Plus, any other time, people are CLAMORING for the "consistent" guy over the "couple big weeks" guy. Personally, I'll take the points any way I can get them. It all evens out in the end for the most part.

By the way, the other slam on him is that he doesn't provide "big plays". He had 10 plays of 20 or more yards last year. Looking at the top 5 rushers:

CJ had about 20 (too hard to count them all up ). Benson had 8. SJax had 12. T Jones had 7. MJD had 7.

Edit, looks like gianmarco beat me to it.

 

[jwb]

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

That handful of weeks where he gets you big FF points. That's what he's missing - the elite guys get you solid double digits all the time (as does Grant), but they also throw in a 28+ point game a few times a year, too. That's why the fantasy perception of him is what it is - Grant rarely gives you that huge game.

In week 14 (either end of regular season for many or the first round of playoffs) he gave you 137 yards and 2 TDs on the ground and threw in 7 yards receiving. In week 16 (many league's bowl game), he gave you 97 and 2 TDs.

What exactly are you looking for?

He isn't Chris Johnson, but outside of that, he's in the same league as everyone else in terms of "big games". Plus, any other time, people are CLAMORING for the "consistent" guy over the "couple big weeks" guy. Personally, I'll take the points any way I can get them. It all evens out in the end for the most part.

By the way, the other slam on him is that he doesn't provide "big plays". He had 10 plays of 20 or more yards last year. Looking at the top 5 rushers:

CJ had about 20 (too hard to count them all up ). Benson had 8. SJax had 12. T Jones had 7. MJD had 7.

Edit, looks like gianmarco beat me to it.

I'm not looking for anything - I like Grant. I'm just saying why I feel the perception of him is what it is. The weeks you are pointing to are his "big" games. And, for better or worse, Grant's big games are not like a lot of other guy's big games. In the regular season last year, Grant cracked 20 points 4 times. And only one of those broke 25. And none broke 30. That's FF good, but it's not FF great. And "FF Good" really doesn't have that much value to start with (rightly or wrongly). Throw in his "age" (and no, I do not feel he's old, but he's not 23, either), and you have a recipe where he productive, but unspectacular, and valued little. I see veeery few trades involving Grant, because nobody wants to pay anything for him (again, rightly or wrongly).

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

That handful of weeks where he gets you big FF points. That's what he's missing - the elite guys get you solid double digits all the time (as does Grant), but they also throw in a 28+ point game a few times a year, too. That's why the fantasy perception of him is what it is - Grant rarely gives you that huge game.

Huh. I would suggest that it isn't absence of big plays that harms his fantasy perception, but (especially in dynasty leagues) rather a view that Grant isn't a "special talent" (the Giants cut him - and he wasn't exactly a high draft pick initially) and while he puts up solid stats, he doesn't play like a "special talent". I know, I kwow - what does that mean?

What it means is that he doesn't have great vision, he is at best an adequate receiver, he lacks short-range explosiveness, can't make guys miss, etc etc etc. He's above average at many things, but what is he great at? Can someone point to a trait that makes him special?

In dynasty, is he really undervalued? FBG's staff have him as the #19 RB, tied with LeSean McCoy, and just below K Moreno, S Greene, C Benson, J Best, F Jones. Is that some kind of travesty? Oh, and he's ranked above P Thomas, R Brown, CJ Spiller. Seems like a relatively fair ranking.

What about redraft then? He's ranked #10. Yep, that's right. A borderline RB1. Ahead of J Stewart, C Wells, S Greene, R Matthews. Behind CJ, AP, MJD, R Rice, F Gore, D Williams, S Jackson, M Turner, R Mendenhall.

In light of the FBGs rankings, does he still seem undervalued?

 

[Thomsen]

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

That handful of weeks where he gets you big FF points. That's what he's missing - the elite guys get you solid double digits all the time (as does Grant), but they also throw in a 28+ point game a few times a year, too. That's why the fantasy perception of him is what it is - Grant rarely gives you that huge game.

Huh. I would suggest that it isn't absence of big plays that harms his fantasy perception, but (especially in dynasty leagues) rather a view that Grant isn't a "special talent" (the Giants cut him - and he wasn't exactly a high draft pick initially) and while he puts up solid stats, he doesn't play like a "special talent". I know, I kwow - what does that mean?

What it means is that he doesn't have great vision, he is at best an adequate receiver, he lacks short-range explosiveness, can't make guys miss, etc etc etc. He's above average at many things, but what is he great at? Can someone point to a trait that makes him special?

In dynasty, is he really undervalued? FBG's staff have him as the #19 RB, tied with LeSean McCoy, and just below K Moreno, S Greene, C Benson, J Best, F Jones. Is that some kind of travesty? Oh, and he's ranked above P Thomas, R Brown, CJ Spiller. Seems like a relatively fair ranking.

What about redraft then? He's ranked #10. Yep, that's right. A borderline RB1. Ahead of J Stewart, C Wells, S Greene, R Matthews. Behind CJ, AP, MJD, R Rice, F Gore, D Williams, S Jackson, M Turner, R Mendenhall.

In light of the FBGs rankings, does he still seem undervalued?

Ranked 10? Wow, that's not how he's viewed in my league. Of course mine is a 0.5 PPR, but still.

 

[rzrback77]

The Packers have a dynamic QB and several excellent receiving options. Ryan Grant is an undrafted RB and not very highly regarded. Those two facts combine to make Grant one of the lower drafted RBs that gets the lion's share of the carries.

First a review of the Packer team stats over the past three seasons.

07 - 383 completions 578 passes 66.2% 4463 yds 7.7 ypa 30 TDs 15 ints 386 rushes 1590 yds 4.12 ypc 13 TDs

08 - 343 completions 541 passes 63.4% 4044 yds 7.5 ypa 28 TDs 13 ints 436 rushes 1805 yds 4.14 ypc 11 TDs

09 - 357 completions 553 passes 64.6% 4492 yds 8.1 ypa 30 TDs 8 ints 439 rushes 1873 yds 4.27 ypc 20 TDs

The thing that stands out is very good passing numbers and better than thought rushing statistics. I think that the offensive line should be better than in recent seasons and I see little to discourage optimism in the Packers offense. I also see that Ryan Grant's effectiveness is more likely to improve than not. His number of carries over the last three seasons are 188 (48.7%) in 07, 312 (71.6%) in 08, and 282 (64.2%) in 09. I expect him to continue to get 65% of the rushing attempts. His TDs really took off last season after averaging only 6 per year in his first two years, went up to eleven. I agree with an earlier poster who suggested the high number of Rodgers TD runs could be deflected to Grant.

The most surprising fact that I discovered in my review of Ryan Grant's outlook was that his current ADP is 20 overall and RB11. I expected him to be lower. I think that he does offer value, but not as much as I anticipated, which was more like RB 15. A quick review of the FBG Staff rankings finds that twelve of the staff rank Grant as RB 11 or higher, with only five ranking him lower and two of those were at 12 and 13. I see another season very much like the year he had last year and being a value pick, particularly when he slides below his ADP.

Ryan Grant 16 gms 280 carries 1250 yards 4.46 ypc 36 targets 26 catches 195 yards 7.5 ypc and 12 total TDs

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

The Packers have a dynamic QB and several excellent receiving options. Ryan Grant is an undrafted RB and not very highly regarded. Those two facts combine to make Grant one of the lower drafted RBs that gets the lion's share of the carries.First a review of the Packer team stats over the past three seasons.07 - 383 completions 578 passes 66.2% 4463 yds 7.7 ypa 30 TDs 15 ints 386 rushes 1590 yds 4.12 ypc 13 TDs08 - 343 completions 541 passes 63.4% 4044 yds 7.5 ypa 28 TDs 13 ints 436 rushes 1805 yds 4.14 ypc 11 TDs09 - 357 completions 553 passes 64.6% 4492 yds 8.1 ypa 30 TDs 8 ints 439 rushes 1873 yds 4.27 ypc 20 TDsThe thing that stands out is very good passing numbers and better than thought rushing statistics. I think that the offensive line should be better than in recent seasons and I see little to discourage optimism in the Packers offense. I also see that Ryan Grant's effectiveness is more likely to improve than not. His number of carries over the last three seasons are 188 (48.7%) in 07, 312 (71.6%) in 08, and 282 (64.2%) in 09. I expect him to continue to get 65% of the rushing attempts. His TDs really took off last season after averaging only 6 per year in his first two years, went up to eleven. I agree with an earlier poster who suggested the high number of Rodgers TD runs could be deflected to Grant.The most surprising fact that I discovered in my review of Ryan Grant's outlook was that his current ADP is 20 overall and RB11. I expected him to be lower. I think that he does offer value, but not as much as I anticipated, which was more like RB 15. A quick review of the FBG Staff rankings finds that twelve of the staff rank Grant as RB 11 or higher, with only five ranking him lower and two of those were at 12 and 13. I see another season very much like the year he had last year and being a value pick, particularly when he slides below his ADP.Ryan Grant 16 gms 280 carries 1250 yards 4.46 ypc 36 targets 26 catches 195 yards 7.5 ypc and 12 total TDs

Solid breakdown rzr. Quick question though: Grant finished as RB8 last year with almost identical stats. If his ADP is RB11, is he really presenting extreme value? I mean, 3 slots different? On FBGs staff rankings, he's at RB10. So it's only 2 slots. Guess I'm still not understanding where people get the idea that Grant is somehow massively undervalued.

 

[Hillbilly]

What about redraft then? He's ranked #10. Yep, that's right. A borderline RB1. Ahead of J Stewart, C Wells, S Greene, R Matthews. Behind CJ, AP, MJD, R Rice, F Gore, D Williams, S Jackson, M Turner, R Mendenhall. In light of the FBGs rankings, does he still seem undervalued?

Would put Mendenhall and Jackson behind Grant this year.

 

[jwb]

What do you think is lacking in his game? We can all agree that he doesn't seem to offer much in the passing game, but that's not his role. As a runner, what is he missing? Vision? Speed? Elusiveness? Tackle-breaking? I contend that opinions of him suffer from a lack of one particular overwhelming skill. When folks think of Chris Johnson they think speed. When folks think of Steven Jackson, they think balance and power. When they think of Deangelo Williams, they think shifty. But with Grant, he doesn't seem to be great at any one thing, but he has enough of ALL of those traits to make a really solid skill package. He's not outrageously fast, but he can break a big play (he ran a surprising mid 4.4 at his combine) . He doesn't break many ankles, but he generally seems to get a few more yards than you might expect. He doesn't dominate defenders with a vicious stiff-arm like Peterson might do, but he doesn't go down particularly easily either.

I'm just looking for a little more than "he isn't talented", when most of his results so far in his career suggest otherwise.

That handful of weeks where he gets you big FF points. That's what he's missing - the elite guys get you solid double digits all the time (as does Grant), but they also throw in a 28+ point game a few times a year, too. That's why the fantasy perception of him is what it is - Grant rarely gives you that huge game.

Huh. I would suggest that it isn't absence of big plays that harms his fantasy perception, but (especially in dynasty leagues) rather a view that Grant isn't a "special talent" (the Giants cut him - and he wasn't exactly a high draft pick initially) and while he puts up solid stats, he doesn't play like a "special talent". I know, I kwow - what does that mean?

What it means is that he doesn't have great vision, he is at best an adequate receiver, he lacks short-range explosiveness, can't make guys miss, etc etc etc. He's above average at many things, but what is he great at? Can someone point to a trait that makes him special?

In dynasty, is he really undervalued? FBG's staff have him as the #19 RB, tied with LeSean McCoy, and just below K Moreno, S Greene, C Benson, J Best, F Jones. Is that some kind of travesty? Oh, and he's ranked above P Thomas, R Brown, CJ Spiller. Seems like a relatively fair ranking.

What about redraft then? He's ranked #10. Yep, that's right. A borderline RB1. Ahead of J Stewart, C Wells, S Greene, R Matthews. Behind CJ, AP, MJD, R Rice, F Gore, D Williams, S Jackson, M Turner, R Mendenhall.

In light of the FBGs rankings, does he still seem undervalued?

Personally, when I think of / discuss value, I (generally) am talking about trade value, not ranking (although rankings get used in trades sometimes). And thus, can only go by what I see in my own leagues, and what my FF buddies tell me when we discuss trades. He doesn't live up to his ranking in trade talk. He likely will out-perform his rankings, though. (again, I like the guy)

 

[rzrback77]

The Packers have a dynamic QB and several excellent receiving options. Ryan Grant is an undrafted RB and not very highly regarded. Those two facts combine to make Grant one of the lower drafted RBs that gets the lion's share of the carries.First a review of the Packer team stats over the past three seasons.07 - 383 completions 578 passes 66.2% 4463 yds 7.7 ypa 30 TDs 15 ints 386 rushes 1590 yds 4.12 ypc 13 TDs08 - 343 completions 541 passes 63.4% 4044 yds 7.5 ypa 28 TDs 13 ints 436 rushes 1805 yds 4.14 ypc 11 TDs09 - 357 completions 553 passes 64.6% 4492 yds 8.1 ypa 30 TDs 8 ints 439 rushes 1873 yds 4.27 ypc 20 TDsThe thing that stands out is very good passing numbers and better than thought rushing statistics. I think that the offensive line should be better than in recent seasons and I see little to discourage optimism in the Packers offense. I also see that Ryan Grant's effectiveness is more likely to improve than not. His number of carries over the last three seasons are 188 (48.7%) in 07, 312 (71.6%) in 08, and 282 (64.2%) in 09. I expect him to continue to get 65% of the rushing attempts. His TDs really took off last season after averaging only 6 per year in his first two years, went up to eleven. I agree with an earlier poster who suggested the high number of Rodgers TD runs could be deflected to Grant.The most surprising fact that I discovered in my review of Ryan Grant's outlook was that his current ADP is 20 overall and RB11. I expected him to be lower. I think that he does offer value, but not as much as I anticipated, which was more like RB 15. A quick review of the FBG Staff rankings finds that twelve of the staff rank Grant as RB 11 or higher, with only five ranking him lower and two of those were at 12 and 13. I see another season very much like the year he had last year and being a value pick, particularly when he slides below his ADP.Ryan Grant 16 gms 280 carries 1250 yards 4.46 ypc 36 targets 26 catches 195 yards 7.5 ypc and 12 total TDs

Solid breakdown rzr. Quick question though: Grant finished as RB8 last year with almost identical stats. If his ADP is RB11, is he really presenting extreme value? I mean, 3 slots different? On FBGs staff rankings, he's at RB10. So it's only 2 slots. Guess I'm still not understanding where people get the idea that Grant is somehow massively undervalued.

agree and that is why I stated surprise at where his ADP was. Maybe that is because most of the FBG scoring and ranking is based on non-ppr and a lot more play in ppr. But, the subsequent lowering in ADP would also present a lowered value since he does not get that many targets. He presents some value, but not a huge amount, unless he slips farther than his current ADP in your specific league.

 

[baconisgood]

The Packers have a dynamic QB and several excellent receiving options. Ryan Grant is an undrafted RB and not very highly regarded. Those two facts combine to make Grant one of the lower drafted RBs that gets the lion's share of the carries.First a review of the Packer team stats over the past three seasons.07 - 383 completions 578 passes 66.2% 4463 yds 7.7 ypa 30 TDs 15 ints 386 rushes 1590 yds 4.12 ypc 13 TDs08 - 343 completions 541 passes 63.4% 4044 yds 7.5 ypa 28 TDs 13 ints 436 rushes 1805 yds 4.14 ypc 11 TDs09 - 357 completions 553 passes 64.6% 4492 yds 8.1 ypa 30 TDs 8 ints 439 rushes 1873 yds 4.27 ypc 20 TDsThe thing that stands out is very good passing numbers and better than thought rushing statistics. I think that the offensive line should be better than in recent seasons and I see little to discourage optimism in the Packers offense. I also see that Ryan Grant's effectiveness is more likely to improve than not. His number of carries over the last three seasons are 188 (48.7%) in 07, 312 (71.6%) in 08, and 282 (64.2%) in 09. I expect him to continue to get 65% of the rushing attempts. His TDs really took off last season after averaging only 6 per year in his first two years, went up to eleven. I agree with an earlier poster who suggested the high number of Rodgers TD runs could be deflected to Grant.The most surprising fact that I discovered in my review of Ryan Grant's outlook was that his current ADP is 20 overall and RB11. I expected him to be lower. I think that he does offer value, but not as much as I anticipated, which was more like RB 15. A quick review of the FBG Staff rankings finds that twelve of the staff rank Grant as RB 11 or higher, with only five ranking him lower and two of those were at 12 and 13. I see another season very much like the year he had last year and being a value pick, particularly when he slides below his ADP.Ryan Grant 16 gms 280 carries 1250 yards 4.46 ypc 36 targets 26 catches 195 yards 7.5 ypc and 12 total TDs

Solid breakdown rzr. Quick question though: Grant finished as RB8 last year with almost identical stats. If his ADP is RB11, is he really presenting extreme value? I mean, 3 slots different? On FBGs staff rankings, he's at RB10. So it's only 2 slots. Guess I'm still not understanding where people get the idea that Grant is somehow massively undervalued.

Depending on your league setup RB8 is usually comes off the board at pick #10/11, but RB#11 is often taken ~ pick #20. If Grant is RB#8 while getting picked in spot 11 you are gaining nearly a full round of value- and since he is a 2nd round pick that is about as much value as one can gain in this section of the draft.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Some of the things I wrote about Grant last year...

Week 6...Ryan Grant has been waiting for the break out game, even with people hyping him as solid, last year he didn't even make an impact for the 1st 5 weeks of the season.

Week 10...Ryan Grant: He is avg top12 over the last 4 weeks even with a very ho hum performance against the Bucs last week. Grant is a great RB2 on your roster, consistent but doesn’t pop thru for 20 very often, doesn’t dip below 10 too often either

Yeah, he's likely to grind out 1,200 yds, 8-10Td, and a few receptions along the way too. But he rarely makes a pop on your roster. I like him as an RB2 but he really never has explosive games and he plays on a potentially explosive offense.

 

[sho nuff]

FF wise...he is Rudi Johnson.

He will give you about 1200 and 10TDs...its not spectacular...its a low risk option as a very good RB2....but not the upside you usually see in your RB1...but still a low end RB1.

Though, I believe a poster said he was cut by the Giants...well, they had him and GB traded for him.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

good RB that flies under the radar and is a perfect RB2.292/1255/11

The problem is that every projection and every mock I've been involved in have him going at the end of a 12 team first or the beginning on the second round. I think the 11 td's you mention is his ceiling. My guess is something along these lines:1450 total yards and 7 total td's.I think he'll kill your team if you draft him where he'll likely be drafted.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

By the way, I think Pierre Thomas gives you better numbers in the third round and Forte gives you comparable numbers in the 4 or 5th round.

 

[ratbast]

By the way, I think Pierre Thomas gives you better numbers in the third round and Forte gives you comparable numbers in the 4 or 5th round.

I dont. Forte may lose solid carries to Taylor and Thomas is always banged up.Ill stick with what I know. Grant is the RB for a good team and they dont seem to be panicking about that.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Some of the things I wrote about Grant last year...

Week 6...Ryan Grant has been waiting for the break out game, even with people hyping him as solid, last year he didn't even make an impact for the 1st 5 weeks of the season.

Week 10...Ryan Grant: He is avg top12 over the last 4 weeks even with a very ho hum performance against the Bucs last week. Grant is a great RB2 on your roster, consistent but doesn’t pop thru for 20 very often, doesn’t dip below 10 too often either

Yeah, he's likely to grind out 1,200 yds, 8-10Td, and a few receptions along the way too. But he rarely makes a pop on your roster. I like him as an RB2 but he really never has explosive games and he plays on a potentially explosive offense.

He hit 20 points three times last year (non PPR). The only guys who hit 20 points more often than that were CJ, ADP, and MJD (the top three backs in the league). Again, perception doesn't quite mesh with reality.The knocks people have on him are based mostly on two things IMO. The first is the lack of pedigree. It took folks a LONG time to accept Priest Holmes as an elite performer considering what he was doing the time, the lack of pedigree scared them off. He had to start breaking records before he was accepted as a "stud". I'm not saying Grant is Holmes, just that the pedigree thing is a factor.

The second thing is his 2008 performance which really was lackluster. Grant was very beat up in 2008 (hamstring issue hampered him all season) and had little to no explosion. He slogged through the season and still put up decent stats, but the long gainers weren't there. HOWEVER, in both season bookending that one he HAS showed the ability to break big plays, and folks can't seem to acknowledge that. People were actually pretty excited about Grant's ability going into 2008 after a very impressive 2007 (over 1000 total yards in 10 games with 8 TDs). Then the hamstring year and people seem to refuse to even look at 2009 in a fair way.

Do the many folks that don't think Grant can run or be explosive remember that in 2007, Ryan Grant had a run of over 20 yards in eight out of nine games to end the season? That's outrageous. Chris Johnson is the only guy I can think that has a streak like that since then. Yet he's always described as a plodding back with no explosion. Oh well.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Here are Grant's rushing numbers in his 3 years with the Packers:

2007: 188/956/8, 5.1 ypc

2008: 213/1203/4, 3.9 ypc

2009: 282/1253/11, 4.4 ypc

In 2008, when Grant struggled, he was a holdout and when he returned, he injured his hamstring. He did not play until late in preseason and was really never right all year. Even though there are exceptions to this, I normally think it's wise to avoid RBs who either hold out or get hurt in camp or preseason.

Last year seems to me to be the most accurate judge of Grant. He is what he is...a solid move-the-chains RB who is not overly great at anything, but is pretty solid in most aspects of the game. He is a player who is probably more appreciated by the team than by fans because he is not overly talented or spectacular. But I think Grant is one of the safest players in drafts. He is durable, plays in a powerhouse offense, and has no competition for touches. I see numbers similar to last year with a few less TDs.

Rushing: 295/1295/8 TDs

Receiving: 23/180/1

Basically, 1500 or so yards and close to 10 TDs...not too shabby. Because of his lack of eye-popping talent, players like Grant will slide sometimes in drafts because people will take chances on players in the same tier with more upside...but also more risk. Grant is not a sexy pick, but he is safe and I see very little downside.

 

[fightingillini]

Ryan Grant gets no respect. He's not the most talented RB, but he makes the most out of what he has. He'll post solid but not spectacular numbers. Solid, safe #2RB. He would be higher up the rankings if Rodgers wouldn't vulture TDs from him.

280 car, 1150 yds rushing, 8 TD

30 rec, 225 yds rec, 1 TD

 

[Todem]

Grant's stat line the past 2 years:2009: 282 carries for 1253 yds (4.4 ypc), 11 TDs; 25 catches for 197 yds (7.9 ypc), 0 TDs2008: 312 carries for 1203 yds (3.9 ypc), 4 TDs; 18 catches for 116 yds (6.4 ypc), 1 TD* Note that the last 3 games of 2009 were odd, with 2 blowouts (48-10 vs Seattle, 33-7 vs Arizona), and 1 shootout (37-36 Pittsburgh). In those games, Grant had 35 carries total. In the other 13 games, he had 247 (19 per game). Let's face it, there is nobody else on this team who provides a running threat. Brandon Jackson is, at best, a solid 3rd-down back. Could rookie James Starks steal some carries? Sure, I guess, maybe. At this point, we haven't seen anything from him, so it's unrealistic to think he challenges Grant for major PT.Against that backdrop, I expect Grant to get the bulk of carries again. Major assumptions:> 18 carries per game> 4.2 yds per carry> 0.6 TDs per game (closer to 2009 avg than 2008 avg)> 1.3 catches per game> 7.0 yds per catchProjection: 288 carries, 1210 yds, 10 TDs; 21 catches, 147 yds, 0 TDsAs a Packer fan, I see Grant as a solid performer, but basically he's just a guy. He doesn't create opportunities unless the O-line opens a hole. Sometime very soon, he'll be suddenly replaced, though that probably won't be until 2011. Maybe he holds on in a major RBBC during 2011 and is replaced in 2012. Depends on how Starks progresses - and what TT does in the draft next year.

Spot on...in a redraft a very nice #2Dynasty....enjoy this season.

 

[We Tigers]

I think a lot of people giving projections and then saying Grant is a solid RB2 are still letting their perceptions get in the way and punking themselves a little bit. Just to pick a couple:

Ryan Grant gets no respect. He's not the most talented RB, but he makes the most out of what he has. He'll post solid but not spectacular numbers. Solid, safe #2RB. He would be higher up the rankings if Rodgers wouldn't vulture TDs from him.

280 car, 1150 yds rushing, 8 TD

30 rec, 225 yds rec, 1 TD

That's 191.5 points, which would have made him RB12, RB13, and RB9 in the last 3 seasons, respectively.

good RB that flies under the radar and is a perfect RB2.

292/1255/11

That's 191.5 points again (whoa, spooky) without any receiving numbers included. Probably more like 210-215 points.I know we all want our first RB to be the guy who scores 300 points--and it is worth looking at the deviation from the top scoring RB and comparing that to the herd, too--but projections that suggest a guy will be averaging RB11 numbers or better says a lot more than RB2. If he's your RB2 and gives you that, you're probably winning your league. Show him some love.

 

[Ducegonads]

Rudi Johnson is as close as I'd go. 2004- 2006 he was as nice a RB 1/2 out there. Had him help me win 2 Championships within a 3 year run where he was a top 10 RB every week.

Gotta be ready for the 35 yard game but there's also the 100+ and a TD out there too. Grant had a game a couple of years ago where he fumbled on, I think, the first play on O and then he may of had a second as well but he ran for 100+ and a TD in that game. Indy, Chicago?

Slow starter but has thoses nice games sprinkled through the season. Could do alot worse with your RB #2.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

By the way, I think Pierre Thomas gives you better numbers in the third round and Forte gives you comparable numbers in the 4 or 5th round.

I dont. Forte may lose solid carries to Taylor and Thomas is always banged up.Ill stick with what I know. Grant is the RB for a good team and they dont seem to be panicking about that.

Forte lost carries last year as it is. The way I see it, Grant will get about 1400 all purpose yards next year. There is no reason to believe Forte will not run for 950-1000 and catch for 300 yards in the Mike martz offense. TD's will be close. With all that in mind, I see Forte as a very comparable player for will be drafted 4 rounds later.

 

[baconisgood]

good RB that flies under the radar and is a perfect RB2.292/1255/11

The problem is that every projection and every mock I've been involved in have him going at the end of a 12 team first or the beginning on the second round. I think the 11 td's you mention is his ceiling. My guess is something along these lines:1450 total yards and 7 total td's.I think he'll kill your team if you draft him where he'll likely be drafted.

Why would that be his ceiling? His o-line was all messed up last year and his QB ran in like 5 TD. I think 11 is about his floor this coming year. If I can get him, I will. 16g x 18 carries = 288 x 4.5 ypc = 1296 yds 12 TD, 20 rec x 8 ypr = 160 yds 0 TD

Rodgers ran in 4 the previous year- the QB run is in the playbook and will be used in GB.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

Ryan Grant gets no respect. He's not the most talented RB, but he makes the most out of what he has. He'll post solid but not spectacular numbers. Solid, safe #2RB. He would be higher up the rankings if Rodgers wouldn't vulture TDs from him.280 car, 1150 yds rushing, 8 TD30 rec, 225 yds rec, 1 TD

I like Grant a lot. I've used in various leagues over the past 2 years. This year though it seems like he has been given too much respect. As I mentioned earlier, in expert rankings I've seen and mock drafts that I have been involved in he's been slotted between 12-16. That's way high for a guy who's best suited as a RB2. While he's consistent I am advising people avoid drafting him that high and look for comparable players in lower rounds to maximize value.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think a previous poster made the comparison to Rudi Johnson and that's a comparison I find myself agreeing with. Chances are, he will produce for your team and justify his draft position He does have some upside because of the offense he is in, but he's not an elite talent himself. Like Rudi Johnson, I think that when the end comes, it will be swift and might be replaced pretty quickly. I believe the average running back in the nfl has a shelf life of not much more than four years, so he probably won't find himself on my roster unless he falls. In my attempt to stay ahead of the curve, I could be wrong and he could be a borderline fantasy RB1, or I might have avoided one of the many RBs who bust next year. Those are my thoughts on Ryan Grant in a nutshell.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

By the way, I think Pierre Thomas gives you better numbers in the third round and Forte gives you comparable numbers in the 4 or 5th round.

I dont. Forte may lose solid carries to Taylor and Thomas is always banged up.Ill stick with what I know. Grant is the RB for a good team and they dont seem to be panicking about that.

Forte lost carries last year as it is. The way I see it, Grant will get about 1400 all purpose yards next year. There is no reason to believe Forte will not run for 950-1000 and catch for 300 yards in the Mike martz offense. TD's will be close. With all that in mind, I see Forte as a very comparable player for will be drafted 4 rounds later.

Sorry, but there are plenty of people who believe Chester Taylor will be more involved in the Martz offense than Forte. So it's a bit misleading to say the bolded above.

 

[fightingillini]

I think a lot of people giving projections and then saying Grant is a solid RB2 are still letting their perceptions get in the way and punking themselves a little bit. Just to pick a couple:

Ryan Grant gets no respect. He's not the most talented RB, but he makes the most out of what he has. He'll post solid but not spectacular numbers. Solid, safe #2RB. He would be higher up the rankings if Rodgers wouldn't vulture TDs from him.

280 car, 1150 yds rushing, 8 TD

30 rec, 225 yds rec, 1 TD

That's 191.5 points, which would have made him RB12, RB13, and RB9 in the last 3 seasons, respectively.

good RB that flies under the radar and is a perfect RB2.

292/1255/11

That's 191.5 points again (whoa, spooky) without any receiving numbers included. Probably more like 210-215 points.I know we all want our first RB to be the guy who scores 300 points--and it is worth looking at the deviation from the top scoring RB and comparing that to the herd, too--but projections that suggest a guy will be averaging RB11 numbers or better says a lot more than RB2. If he's your RB2 and gives you that, you're probably winning your league. Show him some love.

Ranking based on total points can be an illusion. I project each player to play all 16 games. The average games played for RBs is probably 14 games, so on PPG basis, Grant is a decent RB2.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

By the way, I think Pierre Thomas gives you better numbers in the third round and Forte gives you comparable numbers in the 4 or 5th round.

I dont. Forte may lose solid carries to Taylor and Thomas is always banged up.Ill stick with what I know. Grant is the RB for a good team and they dont seem to be panicking about that.

Forte lost carries last year as it is. The way I see it, Grant will get about 1400 all purpose yards next year. There is no reason to believe Forte will not run for 950-1000 and catch for 300 yards in the Mike martz offense. TD's will be close. With all that in mind, I see Forte as a very comparable player for will be drafted 4 rounds later.

Sorry, but there are plenty of people who believe Chester Taylor will be more involved in the Martz offense than Forte. So it's a bit misleading to say the bolded above.

Forte will be on the field more, thus getting more opportunities for the screens. The only way my stance on the debate isn't valid is if Taylor was brought in to be the starter and Martz has already said how excited he is to use Forte's skill set in his offense. Forte is the perfect RB for this offense.

 

[We Tigers]

I think a lot of people giving projections and then saying Grant is a solid RB2 are still letting their perceptions get in the way and punking themselves a little bit. Just to pick a couple:

Ryan Grant gets no respect. He's not the most talented RB, but he makes the most out of what he has. He'll post solid but not spectacular numbers. Solid, safe #2RB. He would be higher up the rankings if Rodgers wouldn't vulture TDs from him.

280 car, 1150 yds rushing, 8 TD

30 rec, 225 yds rec, 1 TD

That's 191.5 points, which would have made him RB12, RB13, and RB9 in the last 3 seasons, respectively.

good RB that flies under the radar and is a perfect RB2.

292/1255/11

That's 191.5 points again (whoa, spooky) without any receiving numbers included. Probably more like 210-215 points.I know we all want our first RB to be the guy who scores 300 points--and it is worth looking at the deviation from the top scoring RB and comparing that to the herd, too--but projections that suggest a guy will be averaging RB11 numbers or better says a lot more than RB2. If he's your RB2 and gives you that, you're probably winning your league. Show him some love.

Ranking based on total points can be an illusion. I project each player to play all 16 games. The average games played for RBs is probably 14 games, so on PPG basis, Grant is a decent RB2.

That shouldn't really matter, though. If you believe the average is 14 games played, then realistically you're looking at same or similar risk factors for all backs, so the number of games played vs. your 16-game projection is irrelevant. PPG is valuable but your 16-game projections for all players should be perfectly acceptable for figuring out where a player is valued against historical data.

 

[rascal]

I have him grouped around DeAngelo, Mendenhall, and Greene. However, his risk is all lower than those three. If he is your #1 RB he won't be special and won't win you a league championship (whereas the other three might), but if he is your RB#2 you couldn't be happier.

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

I have him grouped around DeAngelo, Mendenhall, and Greene. However, his risk is all lower than those three. If he is your #1 RB he won't be special and won't win you a league championship (whereas the other three might), but if he is your RB#2 you couldn't be happier.

How is his risk any lower? He has no legitimate guy behind him but he hasn't been an ironman in his career, the qb vultures a lot of touchdowns, and his coach often likes to abandon the run. He has the best qb but the worst o-line. DeAngelo missed a few games (two full games and most of a third) yet finished about 100 yards behind Grant.

 

[sho nuff]

I have him grouped around DeAngelo, Mendenhall, and Greene. However, his risk is all lower than those three. If he is your #1 RB he won't be special and won't win you a league championship (whereas the other three might), but if he is your RB#2 you couldn't be happier.

How is his risk any lower? He has no legitimate guy behind him but he hasn't been an ironman in his career, the qb vultures a lot of touchdowns, and his coach often likes to abandon the run. He has the best qb but the worst o-line. DeAngelo missed a few games (two full games and most of a third) yet finished about 100 yards behind Grant.

Id guess his risk is low because he is basically a lock to give you close to 1200 yards and about 8 TDs. He is Rudi Johnson part 2.He shows up, plays every game, does not really fumble and does not have a threat to steal carries.

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

I have him grouped around DeAngelo, Mendenhall, and Greene. However, his risk is all lower than those three. If he is your #1 RB he won't be special and won't win you a league championship (whereas the other three might), but if he is your RB#2 you couldn't be happier.

How is his risk any lower? He has no legitimate guy behind him but he hasn't been an ironman in his career, the qb vultures a lot of touchdowns, and his coach often likes to abandon the run. He has the best qb but the worst o-line. DeAngelo missed a few games (two full games and most of a third) yet finished about 100 yards behind Grant.

Id guess his risk is low because he is basically a lock to give you close to 1200 yards and about 8 TDs. He is Rudi Johnson part 2.He shows up, plays every game, does not really fumble and does not have a threat to steal carries.

I can see how Greene is no sure thing but how is DeAngelo not a lock for that as well?

 

[rascal]

I have him grouped around DeAngelo, Mendenhall, and Greene. However, his risk is all lower than those three. If he is your #1 RB he won't be special and won't win you a league championship (whereas the other three might), but if he is your RB#2 you couldn't be happier.

How is his risk any lower? He has no legitimate guy behind him but he hasn't been an ironman in his career, the qb vultures a lot of touchdowns, and his coach often likes to abandon the run. He has the best qb but the worst o-line. DeAngelo missed a few games (two full games and most of a third) yet finished about 100 yards behind Grant.

Id guess his risk is low because he is basically a lock to give you close to 1200 yards and about 8 TDs. He is Rudi Johnson part 2.He shows up, plays every game, does not really fumble and does not have a threat to steal carries.

Exactly.My problem with the Carolina situation is that you are almost forced to pick both RBs.

 

[rascal]

I have him grouped around DeAngelo, Mendenhall, and Greene. However, his risk is all lower than those three. If he is your #1 RB he won't be special and won't win you a league championship (whereas the other three might), but if he is your RB#2 you couldn't be happier.

How is his risk any lower? He has no legitimate guy behind him but he hasn't been an ironman in his career, the qb vultures a lot of touchdowns, and his coach often likes to abandon the run. He has the best qb but the worst o-line. DeAngelo missed a few games (two full games and most of a third) yet finished about 100 yards behind Grant.

Id guess his risk is low because he is basically a lock to give you close to 1200 yards and about 8 TDs. He is Rudi Johnson part 2.He shows up, plays every game, does not really fumble and does not have a threat to steal carries.

I can see how Greene is no sure thing but how is DeAngelo not a lock for that as well?

How certain are you that Stewart won't take over?I'd rather trust a RB who I know won't be in a RBBC situation.

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

I have him grouped around DeAngelo, Mendenhall, and Greene. However, his risk is all lower than those three. If he is your #1 RB he won't be special and won't win you a league championship (whereas the other three might), but if he is your RB#2 you couldn't be happier.

How is his risk any lower? He has no legitimate guy behind him but he hasn't been an ironman in his career, the qb vultures a lot of touchdowns, and his coach often likes to abandon the run. He has the best qb but the worst o-line. DeAngelo missed a few games (two full games and most of a third) yet finished about 100 yards behind Grant.

Id guess his risk is low because he is basically a lock to give you close to 1200 yards and about 8 TDs. He is Rudi Johnson part 2.He shows up, plays every game, does not really fumble and does not have a threat to steal carries.

I can see how Greene is no sure thing but how is DeAngelo not a lock for that as well?

How certain are you that Stewart won't take over?I'd rather trust a RB who I know won't be in a RBBC situation.

I'm willing to bet a lot of money on it. In fact I'm doing just that (by drafting him in my money league). I'm certainly not saying Grant is crap (he's a very good rb to have).But DeAngelo is not only keeping his job, he's going to get lots of carries. The Panthers run, run, and run some more. The same cannot be said of Green Bay.ETA as great as I believe Stewart to be, I think there's a greater chance of Grant losing his job than DeAngelo losing his.