Please See Mine
Footballguy
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Ryan Howard signs 5-year, $125 million deal (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Please See Mine
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Good move by the Phillies.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
So much for him being traded for Pujols. 
igbomb
Footballguy
Moderately overpaid. But hey, it isn't my money. Smart move.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
WOW, didn't think we be able to keep him. Good move, way to go Phightins.
otello
Footballguy
Probably right, but they needed to lock him up.
G
Guest
Guest
Correct.He's locked up for this year and the next. My guess is, 5 years from now, they're going to wish they hadn't made this extension.
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G
Guest
Guest
David Ortiz says hi.
whoknew
Footballguy
Terrible news for the Cards.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Ryan Howard never did steroids, no comparison.
whoknew
Footballguy
1) No way you can know that.
2) As I'm sure you know, the career trajectories for fat guys with "old man skills" is not good. They generally fall off a cliff fast and early.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
What are "old man skills"?
Billy Bats
Footballguy
1) He continues to produce the same as he did when he first came up, with all the testing that's going on. Ortiz, not so much.
2) He's not even close to being fat. He's gotten in better and better shape every year and he's only 30, will be 35 when his deal ends. I can't forsee a drop off a cliff like alot would assume. We'll see.
Anyway, this is great news for the once pinch-a-penny Phillies. We're running with the big dogs, and it feels pretty damn good.
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Eephus
Footballguy
Jim Thome is an example of a guy with old man skills who's retained value into his late 30s.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
FTR, he will turn 37 on November 19, 2016, just after the deal ends (sans option).
whoknew
Footballguy
It's certainly possible that Howard will perform well into his late 30s. I just wouldn't bet on it.Old man skills are generally used to describe big, husky guys don't move well, don't run well, don't field well but walk a lot and pull the ball a ton with power. Think Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, etc. The track record isn't good for those guys to maintain their excellence into their late 30s. But who knows? Maybe Howard will be Thome.
igbomb
Footballguy
Only Howard doesn't walk alot. Like I said earlier, not my money. But if anyone on the Phillies should be making that kind of scratch, it's Utley.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Howard actually gets in better shape as the years go by and his fielding is getting better and better. Nowadays, I think it's easier for players to maintain their skills as they get older because of the advances in training and medicine.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
He's already signed long term.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Are you really comparing Ryan Howard to those fat pigs?? Seriously?!?
pollardsvision
Footballguy
You find that amazing?Mauer has never driven in or scored 100 runs in a single season. He's hit more than 13 HRs exactly once. Howard has driven in at least 136 RBI and hit 45 HR for 4 straight years. Power costs alot of money. I realize Mauer's position and defense increase his value, but at some point, it's very likely that that will be sacrificed to preserve his offense. Either that, or his offensive production will go down and he'll have durability issues (as he's already slightly prone to). I think the Twins paid for Mauer's career year. Phillies paid for Howard's average year. I could see Howard's deal being a burden toward the end of the deal, but Howard making a little more than Mauer on a yearly basis should not be a shock.
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Eephus
Footballguy
Even allowing for inflation, there's not a high chance of Howard performing up to his $25M salary in the last two years of his contract. While there's some advantage to the Phillies is by locking him in now and keeping him happy, there's significant downside risk that you'll have a diminished Howard clogging up the payroll and the right side of the fielding spectrum five years from now. Age will take away some of his power but he can lose 10% of that and still be productive. I'd be more concerned about aging reflexes affecting his strikeouts. He's already among the league leaders. If his AB/SO falls off a cliff, he's in trouble.It's certainly possible that Howard will perform well into his late 30s. I just wouldn't bet on it.Old man skills are generally used to describe big, husky guys don't move well, don't run well, don't field well but walk a lot and pull the ball a ton with power. Think Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, etc. The track record isn't good for those guys to maintain their excellence into their late 30s. But who knows? Maybe Howard will be Thome.
the moops
Footballguy
Who exactly would you compare him to?
G
Guest
Guest
This is basically it. Another example of old man skills is Pronk. Remember him? AL MVP contender of 3 or 4 years ago? Yah.Maybe the Phillies get lucky on this one. Maybe Howard turns into Thome. But if we make a bet for $1,000 on who wins next year's Super Bowl and I win if it's any of: Vikings, Saints, Colts, or Patriots and you win if it's any of: Raiders, Redskins, Bills, or Texans, even if the Raiders hoist the Lombardi Trophy you still made a bad bet. You just got lucky.I say the Phillies already had the years covered that Howard was going to be productive. It's silly, a waste of money, and constrains payroll to tie him up for years where he's probably not going to be very good.It's certainly possible that Howard will perform well into his late 30s. I just wouldn't bet on it.Old man skills are generally used to describe big, husky guys don't move well, don't run well, don't field well but walk a lot and pull the ball a ton with power. Think Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, etc. The track record isn't good for those guys to maintain their excellence into their late 30s. But who knows? Maybe Howard will be Thome.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Who is Pronk? Paul Konerko?
G
Guest
Guest
Travis Hafner. It's his nickname for him because when he was a young player his teammates thought he was half project and half donkey.
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Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
OOF
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
That's funny.
G
Guest
Guest
Mauer is going to earn much more of his paycheck than Howard will his. Bank it.
whoknew
Footballguy
From Keith Law. A little harsh but, that's Keith Law. He's snarky.
"This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."
"This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."
G
Guest
Guest
That's what I'm sayin'.
the moops
Footballguy
636 OPS vs lefites this year.653 last year.
746 in 2008.
Seems to be an average defender. His UZR numbers are pretty consistently average. Good chance they get worse though.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Howard has actually done a lot to shed that fat guy body type.
G
Guest
Guest
So has Ortiz.In any case, Howard's body type and skill set (which is almost more important) still fit into the mold. It might work out for the Phillies but odds say it won't.
Can I represent Albert Pujols in his next contract negotiation?
2009 - Howard was the #27 position player in baseball in VORP, #9 1b, trailing Joey Votto and Derrick Lee. Pujols was #1 overall.
2008 - Howard was the #49 position player in baseball in VORP, #9 1b, trailing Carlos Delgado and Fielder. Pujols was #1 overall.
2007 - Howard was the #20 position player in baseball in VORP, #4 1b, trailing Carlos Pena. Pujols was #8 overall, #1 1b.
2006 - Howard was the #2 position player in baseball in VORP, #2 1b. Three guesses who he was behind. Pujols, #1 overall.
2005 - Howard was the #93 position player in baseball in VORP, #14 1b, trailing Chris Shelton. Pujols was #3 overall, #2 1b behind Derrick Lee's career year.
Howard's average VORP = #38 among position players, #7 among first basemen. Pujols averages #2.8 among position players - far and away the best average in baseball over that time frame - and #1 among 1b.
If guys like Mauer and Howard are $25M/year players, anything less than $40M/year for Pujols is a steal. $50m/year wouldn't be stupid unless it's for too many years.
2009 - Howard was the #27 position player in baseball in VORP, #9 1b, trailing Joey Votto and Derrick Lee. Pujols was #1 overall.
2008 - Howard was the #49 position player in baseball in VORP, #9 1b, trailing Carlos Delgado and Fielder. Pujols was #1 overall.
2007 - Howard was the #20 position player in baseball in VORP, #4 1b, trailing Carlos Pena. Pujols was #8 overall, #1 1b.
2006 - Howard was the #2 position player in baseball in VORP, #2 1b. Three guesses who he was behind. Pujols, #1 overall.
2005 - Howard was the #93 position player in baseball in VORP, #14 1b, trailing Chris Shelton. Pujols was #3 overall, #2 1b behind Derrick Lee's career year.
Howard's average VORP = #38 among position players, #7 among first basemen. Pujols averages #2.8 among position players - far and away the best average in baseball over that time frame - and #1 among 1b.
If guys like Mauer and Howard are $25M/year players, anything less than $40M/year for Pujols is a steal. $50m/year wouldn't be stupid unless it's for too many years.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/w...llies-thinking/
Deal doesn't look good according to the heavy stats nerds (no offense to any of you heavy stats nerds, I'm with you). I think there's very little chance that Howard lives up to this contract, but I agree with the previous poster that it's simply an ok deal for the first 3 years.....with a player like Howard who has hardware and puts up huge HR and RBI numbers (despite the fact that those stats are only marginally useful in determining the value of a player) I feel like most teams will end up overpaying...
Deal doesn't look good according to the heavy stats nerds (no offense to any of you heavy stats nerds, I'm with you). I think there's very little chance that Howard lives up to this contract, but I agree with the previous poster that it's simply an ok deal for the first 3 years.....with a player like Howard who has hardware and puts up huge HR and RBI numbers (despite the fact that those stats are only marginally useful in determining the value of a player) I feel like most teams will end up overpaying...
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the moops
Footballguy
We’re not only looking very far into the future, but we’re doing so with a hitting profile that historically ages awfully. Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaugn, David Ortiz, Tony Clark and others are among Ryan Howard’s most comparable hitters according to Baseball-Reference. All of them dropped off harshly in their early 30s. About the only success story in Howard’s top ten comparables in Willie McCovey.Oof
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dparker713
Footballguy
Its a good day to be a Mets fan.
Eephus
Footballguy
A 40 year old Ryan Howard would be better than anybody the Mets can run out at 1B
Don't worry, I'm sure there will eventually be a report saying that Beltran is out until July. Then we'll all panic and continue to watch the Mets struggle to score 3 runs a game.Also, I was pretty amazed to see that Howard didn't even walk 80 times last season. Looking more and more like 2006 was an aberration for Howard.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Meh... Ortiz started when he was 33 (at the earliest). Howard started this two years ago.And if the Phillies win another WS....noone's going to care that they are paying a two time Series winner and probable future HOFer "well done" money at the end of his career....and that's even saying he will falter.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Nah...that Murphy kid has batter SNIP and DOINK numbers...
