Ryan Howard signs 5-year, $125 million deal (1 Viewer)

[crewmember]

And that contradicts anything I've stated how, exactly? Oh that's right, it doesn't remotely.Read a little more closely. I said "Hitting in the middle of the line up, playing half their games in that home park, there are no less than 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers". That's saying that players who don't have the benefit of hitting in that park OR have the benefit of that line up around them could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers if they also got to play with those benefits. Pujols puts up routinely better numbers across the board playing in one of the worst hitter's parks in baseball. What would Matt Kemp do if you switched him and Howard? Longoria?

Why even mention the park then? I showed how the park DOESN'T inflate Howard's power numbers. Why are you so sure it would inflate another hitter's?And "reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers"?. Really? You mean 20 to 25 other players would be reasonably expected to hit 45 homers and put up 140 RBI's? That's just crazy talk. Sorry.

Because it's easier to hit home runs in Philly than it is in St. Louis, LA, or Tampa. If you take a player who plays 82 games in a park that suppresses HR production and move them to a park that inflates HR production, you could reasonably expect their production numbers to increase. As for my "crazy talk", it's only crazy to those who don't understand that there are objective ways to measure such things, and those objective measures very strongly suggest that there are at least 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers.

if only they weren't on other teams. Phils could really save some money.

 

[igbomb]

No you don't.

Not to be a jerk, but if you don't go out and read the background material, you simply won't understand why RBIs indeed are a useless measure of a player.

RBIs are certainly strongly correlated to overall performance, i.e. a great player will likely have more RBIs. RBIs are like wins in that way. In the absence of all else, they are a decent measure of a player's performance. But given that we have the ability to measure a player's performance with other metrics that measure ONLY their performance, unlike wins and RBIs which also measure other players' performance, RBIs become a useless measure.

No I do, for some reason it just bothers people like you when others cite 140 rbi's and not all the more in-depth stats you like to cite. Someone will says rbi and you'll cite a different stat and say they are wrong for using rbi even if your in agreement on your conclusion of a player. Like I say pujols is good because he had 140 rbi and you'll say no that's useless, he's good because his vorp. We are both saying the same thing, but you have the need to act like I'm stupid although it's an obvious conclusion watching Albert that he is good. I'll like his batting average and you'll laugh and cite his slugging percentage. 140 rbi every year is relevant, when your lead the league or near the lead every year, guess what? That's a great player. It's not rocket surgery so no need to act like it is. I know Albert Pujols would have more rbi for phillies then howard, but I also know he is close to the best that anyone could do. I understand what your saying about it being team dependent, that doesn't mean the term can never ever be uttered again. Save the rbi hatred for when someone is overvalues someone on the yankees or devalues someone on the royals.

First bolded: That is a completely wrong statement. Pujols is not good because he has 140 RBIs. He has 140 RBIs because he is good. Second bolded: It's okay to suggest that RBIs can overvalue someone on the Yankees but not on the Phils? The Phillies have every bit the overpowering offense that players like Howard get to enjoy the benefits of that the Yankees do. This isn't Phillies hate, I wish like hell that the Tigers had the offense they do. But to suggest that the Yankees players can be overvalued because of the surrounding talent but not the Philles is just silly.

And frankly, I wan't acting like you were stupid. If I thought that, I wouldn't have replied. But you are wrong. Feel free to paint me as a condescending stats snob, but don't engage in the discussion if you're afraid of being told that you are wrong.

 

[the moops]

that's fine but the phillies don't have the option of signing the 2nd best hitter. Only had the option of Ryan Howard and evidently this is what it took to extend him.

The Phillies had the much better option of doing nothing. Howard was signed for 2011 and 2012. They didnt need to do this now. The ony reason you sign, or extend guys like this is 1) buy out some arbitration years or 2) get somewhat of a discount in that the player gives up some yearly money for longer years. The Phillies didnt do either of these things. They just decided to give a very good player an outrageous extension that covers his decline years. It is a baffling deal.

 

[Genedoc]

Add Adam Dunn to the list of players the Phillies just made millions of dollars for.

Adam Dunn isn't nearly as good as Howard. He's hits a bunch of homers but lacks in comparison in the other categories. Besides, he is already making something like 10 million a year. He's not hurting.

The numbers disagree. Looks like Dunn's at least a comparable player by any objective analysis. The biggest statistical differences - runs and RBIs - are products of the teams they're playing on. Everything else is very comparable, with Howard coming out a little ahead. Swap Howard and Dunn, and Dunn's #'s would look a lot more like Howard, and vica-versa. There's nothing whatsoever to suggest that Howard is worth more than twice the money Dunn is.

MLB GM's don't agree with you.

And MLB GM's never make mistakes by signing demonstrably awful contracts.

 

[Guest]

And that contradicts anything I've stated how, exactly? Oh that's right, it doesn't remotely.Read a little more closely. I said "Hitting in the middle of the line up, playing half their games in that home park, there are no less than 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers". That's saying that players who don't have the benefit of hitting in that park OR have the benefit of that line up around them could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers if they also got to play with those benefits. Pujols puts up routinely better numbers across the board playing in one of the worst hitter's parks in baseball. What would Matt Kemp do if you switched him and Howard? Longoria?

Why even mention the park then? I showed how the park DOESN'T inflate Howard's power numbers. Why are you so sure it would inflate another hitter's?And "reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers"?. Really? You mean 20 to 25 other players would be reasonably expected to hit 45 homers and put up 140 RBI's? That's just crazy talk. Sorry.

Because it's easier to hit home runs in Philly than it is in St. Louis, LA, or Tampa. If you take a player who plays 82 games in a park that suppresses HR production and move them to a park that inflates HR production, you could reasonably expect their production numbers to increase. As for my "crazy talk", it's only crazy to those who don't understand that there are objective ways to measure such things, and those objective measures very strongly suggest that there are at least 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers.

:sigh:

How can you be so sure that the park doesn't inflate Howard's numbers? Because he's hit more HRs on the road the last 3 years?First, there's such a thing as statistical variance. Just because Howard hit fewer HRs at home doesn't mean that he wouldn't have hit even fewer than he did if his home park was Petco.Second, why not look at his career. Why stop at 3 years. At home, he has hit 108 HRs and away he has hit 117. You win, you say!!!! Not so fast. That's over 1305 home ABs vs 1465 away ABs. So his HR per AB is actually higher at home.There's other problems but those are the big ones. You haven't really shown anything.

 

[eoMMan]

And that contradicts anything I've stated how, exactly? Oh that's right, it doesn't remotely.

Read a little more closely. I said "Hitting in the middle of the line up, playing half their games in that home park, there are no less than 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers". That's saying that players who don't have the benefit of hitting in that park OR have the benefit of that line up around them could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers if they also got to play with those benefits. Pujols puts up routinely better numbers across the board playing in one of the worst hitter's parks in baseball. What would Matt Kemp do if you switched him and Howard? Longoria?

Why even mention the park then? I showed how the park DOESN'T inflate Howard's power numbers. Why are you so sure it would inflate another hitter's?

And "reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers"?. Really? You mean 20 to 25 other players would be reasonably expected to hit 45 homers and put up 140 RBI's? That's just crazy talk. Sorry.

Because it's easier to hit home runs in Philly than it is in St. Louis, LA, or Tampa. If you take a player who plays 82 games in a park that suppresses HR production and move them to a park that inflates HR production, you could reasonably expect their production numbers to increase. As for my "crazy talk", it's only crazy to those who don't understand that there are objective ways to measure such things, and those objective measures very strongly suggest that there are at least 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers.

:sigh:

How can you be so sure that the park doesn't inflate Howard's numbers? Because he's hit more HRs on the road the last 3 years?First, there's such a thing as statistical variance. Just because Howard hit fewer HRs at home doesn't mean that he wouldn't have hit even fewer than he did if his home park was Petco.

Yes, I know what statistical variance is. That's why I used 3 years instead of a single year.

Second, why not look at his career. Why stop at 3 years. At home, he has hit 108 HRs and away he has hit 117. You win, you say!!!! Not so fast. That's over 1305 home ABs vs 1465 away ABs. So his HR per AB is actually higher at home.

Okay, so that's 160 home ABs that he's missing. Even if he stayed the same pace, the split home versus away is pretty much the same. There's no clear indication that the home park as helped his power numbers and no clear indication that it would help another power hitter in his place.

Also, you mentioned Petco. I guess if Adrian Gonzalez can hit 40 homers there, he must be the best power hitter since Hank Aaron, right, being that it's such a hard park to hit homers at?

There's other problems but those are the big ones. You haven't really shown anything.

 

[Guest]

Phillies can't sign any of these guys so I don't know what the point of listing guys you like over Howard is.

My point is the 15th best hitter in baseball got paid like the 2nd best

that's fine but the phillies don't have the option of signing the 2nd best hitter. Only had the option of Ryan Howard and evidently this is what it took to extend him. If you don't think they should have that's fine but don't see point of talking about other great hitters. The next contracts in a year or 2 the players will be making more then Howard. If not then it was a really bad deal.

Not this very second the Phillies don't have the option of signing the 2nd best hitter, no. But the Phillies didn't have to act this very second. They had a year and a half to think about what to do with Howard. But in the next 2 years the following 1B's should be FAs: Berkman, Pujols, Konerko, Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. And there's always some talent available to teams willing to take other teams' bad contracts.The Phillies had much more in the way of options than resigning Howard.

 

[Guest]

How can you be so sure that the park doesn't inflate Howard's numbers? Because he's hit more HRs on the road the last 3 years?

First, there's such a thing as statistical variance. Just because Howard hit fewer HRs at home doesn't mean that he wouldn't have hit even fewer than he did if his home park was Petco.

Yes, I know what statistical variance is. That's why I used 3 years instead of a single year.

Second, why not look at his career. Why stop at 3 years. At home, he has hit 108 HRs and away he has hit 117. You win, you say!!!! Not so fast. That's over 1305 home ABs vs 1465 away ABs. So his HR per AB is actually higher at home.

Okay, so that's 160 home ABs that he's missing. Even if he stayed the same pace, the split home versus away is pretty much the same. There's no clear indication that the home park as helped his power numbers and no clear indication that it would help another power hitter in his place.

Also, you mentioned Petco. I guess if Adrian Gonzalez can hit 40 homers there, he must be the best power hitter since Hank Aaron, right, being that it's such a hard park to hit homers at?

There's other problems but those are the big ones. You haven't really shown anything.

Adding 2 years doesn't mean you grasp statistical variance and it certainly doesn't mean that you've proven anything. As far as clear indication that his home park helped his power numbers, actually it does exist. Here: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php?...er&sort=asc Most of Howard's HRs would have been out in any park but 3 of his home HRs last year would have only been out in under a third and one of them only in Citizens Park and one other.

You act like this is either hocus pocus or something so complicated that nobody can figure it out. It's not and they have.

 

[crewmember]

No you don't.

Not to be a jerk, but if you don't go out and read the background material, you simply won't understand why RBIs indeed are a useless measure of a player.

RBIs are certainly strongly correlated to overall performance, i.e. a great player will likely have more RBIs. RBIs are like wins in that way. In the absence of all else, they are a decent measure of a player's performance. But given that we have the ability to measure a player's performance with other metrics that measure ONLY their performance, unlike wins and RBIs which also measure other players' performance, RBIs become a useless measure.

No I do, for some reason it just bothers people like you when others cite 140 rbi's and not all the more in-depth stats you like to cite. Someone will says rbi and you'll cite a different stat and say they are wrong for using rbi even if your in agreement on your conclusion of a player. Like I say pujols is good because he had 140 rbi and you'll say no that's useless, he's good because his vorp. We are both saying the same thing, but you have the need to act like I'm stupid although it's an obvious conclusion watching Albert that he is good. I'll like his batting average and you'll laugh and cite his slugging percentage. 140 rbi every year is relevant, when your lead the league or near the lead every year, guess what? That's a great player. It's not rocket surgery so no need to act like it is. I know Albert Pujols would have more rbi for phillies then howard, but I also know he is close to the best that anyone could do. I understand what your saying about it being team dependent, that doesn't mean the term can never ever be uttered again. Save the rbi hatred for when someone is overvalues someone on the yankees or devalues someone on the royals.

First bolded: That is a completely wrong statement. Pujols is not good because he has 140 RBIs. He has 140 RBIs because he is good. Second bolded: It's okay to suggest that RBIs can overvalue someone on the Yankees but not on the Phils? The Phillies have every bit the overpowering offense that players like Howard get to enjoy the benefits of that the Yankees do. This isn't Phillies hate, I wish like hell that the Tigers had the offense they do. But to suggest that the Yankees players can be overvalued because of the surrounding talent but not the Philles is just silly.

And frankly, I wan't acting like you were stupid. If I thought that, I wouldn't have replied. But you are wrong. Feel free to paint me as a condescending stats snob, but don't engage in the discussion if you're afraid of being told that you are wrong.

1st- of course, didn't think that deeply about how i phrased it.2nd- No Phillies can def be suggested in that area. I always found Pat Burrell's rbi's to be inflated and it will by funny to see what a guy like polanco ends up with this year. It's just my opinion when you talk about 140+ rbi for howard, I don't see how inflated that can be. How much can be expected in that slot 160? 170? I think 140+ proves him to be one of the best guys in the league at driving in runs. Maybe a couple guys could knock in 160 but that's rather picky. Howard does about the best that anyone could do.

3rd- I said I understood the concept, and then you said no you don't. Then you proceeded to say the same things I said about it being team dependent. So I may not understand all the different stats but I still understand the concept about rbi. Just because I still give it some value doesn't mean I don't understand it. I give it value because it is often a mutual thing like you said, great players will have a lot of rbi. It won't always be mutual but when it is, theres no reason to act like the rbi stat can't be citied. just like average and obp aren't as good as things beyond my head like wOBA but more often then not when they have great stats in those more complicated stats they have great stats in the simple ones(.avg, .obp)

 

[eoMMan]

How can you be so sure that the park doesn't inflate Howard's numbers? Because he's hit more HRs on the road the last 3 years?

First, there's such a thing as statistical variance. Just because Howard hit fewer HRs at home doesn't mean that he wouldn't have hit even fewer than he did if his home park was Petco.

Yes, I know what statistical variance is. That's why I used 3 years instead of a single year.

Second, why not look at his career. Why stop at 3 years. At home, he has hit 108 HRs and away he has hit 117. You win, you say!!!! Not so fast. That's over 1305 home ABs vs 1465 away ABs. So his HR per AB is actually higher at home.

Okay, so that's 160 home ABs that he's missing. Even if he stayed the same pace, the split home versus away is pretty much the same. There's no clear indication that the home park as helped his power numbers and no clear indication that it would help another power hitter in his place.

Also, you mentioned Petco. I guess if Adrian Gonzalez can hit 40 homers there, he must be the best power hitter since Hank Aaron, right, being that it's such a hard park to hit homers at?

There's other problems but those are the big ones. You haven't really shown anything.

Adding 2 years doesn't mean you grasp statistical variance and it certainly doesn't mean that you've proven anything. As far as clear indication that his home park helped his power numbers, actually it does exist. Here: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php?...er&sort=asc Most of Howard's HRs would have been out in any park but 3 of his home HRs last year would have only been out in under a third and one of them only in Citizens Park and one other.

You act like this is either hocus pocus or something so complicated that nobody can figure it out. It's not and they have.

Adding more years does lower variance because your sample is bigger.Your link doesn't say anything about Howard.

And you are literally arguing with me over a couple of homers. Really?

Face it. The guy is a legit power hitter....whether it's PetCo field or Citizens. Citizens hasn't made him a great power hitter and it shouldn't be expected to make another player a great power hitter.

 

[crewmember]

that's fine but the phillies don't have the option of signing the 2nd best hitter. Only had the option of Ryan Howard and evidently this is what it took to extend him.

The Phillies had the much better option of doing nothing. Howard was signed for 2011 and 2012. They didnt need to do this now. The ony reason you sign, or extend guys like this is 1) buy out some arbitration years or 2) get somewhat of a discount in that the player gives up some yearly money for longer years. The Phillies didnt do either of these things. They just decided to give a very good player an outrageous extension that covers his decline years. It is a baffling deal.

Yea I actually agree with most all this, I'm not crazy about the deal although I am defending Howard in here. I'd rather wait too but maybe Ruben wants to do it so he can plan ahead with werth or elsewhere, at least now he can plan somewhat more. Not the biggest fan of the GM but I have a little faith he either has a plan or knows what the market is. You are right though and extension without a discount is dumb. But if he makes the same amount as fielder and adrian then I won't be too upset.

 

[crewmember]

Add Adam Dunn to the list of players the Phillies just made millions of dollars for.

Adam Dunn isn't nearly as good as Howard. He's hits a bunch of homers but lacks in comparison in the other categories. Besides, he is already making something like 10 million a year. He's not hurting.

The numbers disagree. Looks like Dunn's at least a comparable player by any objective analysis. The biggest statistical differences - runs and RBIs - are products of the teams they're playing on. Everything else is very comparable, with Howard coming out a little ahead. Swap Howard and Dunn, and Dunn's #'s would look a lot more like Howard, and vica-versa. There's nothing whatsoever to suggest that Howard is worth more than twice the money Dunn is.

MLB GM's don't agree with you.

And MLB GM's never make mistakes by signing demonstrably awful contracts.

Exactly, if they throwing away money then you would think they would give something to a guy as good as Howard. Or trade for him now, washington doesn't need him. Dunn does he get a bad rap, but from the few times I watch him and what I hear he really can't play defense at all. not in the outfield, not at first.

 

[Guest]

How can you be so sure that the park doesn't inflate Howard's numbers? Because he's hit more HRs on the road the last 3 years?

First, there's such a thing as statistical variance. Just because Howard hit fewer HRs at home doesn't mean that he wouldn't have hit even fewer than he did if his home park was Petco.

Yes, I know what statistical variance is. That's why I used 3 years instead of a single year.

Second, why not look at his career. Why stop at 3 years. At home, he has hit 108 HRs and away he has hit 117. You win, you say!!!! Not so fast. That's over 1305 home ABs vs 1465 away ABs. So his HR per AB is actually higher at home.

Okay, so that's 160 home ABs that he's missing. Even if he stayed the same pace, the split home versus away is pretty much the same. There's no clear indication that the home park as helped his power numbers and no clear indication that it would help another power hitter in his place.

Also, you mentioned Petco. I guess if Adrian Gonzalez can hit 40 homers there, he must be the best power hitter since Hank Aaron, right, being that it's such a hard park to hit homers at?

There's other problems but those are the big ones. You haven't really shown anything.

Adding 2 years doesn't mean you grasp statistical variance and it certainly doesn't mean that you've proven anything. As far as clear indication that his home park helped his power numbers, actually it does exist. Here: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php?...er&sort=asc Most of Howard's HRs would have been out in any park but 3 of his home HRs last year would have only been out in under a third and one of them only in Citizens Park and one other.

You act like this is either hocus pocus or something so complicated that nobody can figure it out. It's not and they have.

Adding more years does lower variance because your sample is bigger.Your link doesn't say anything about Howard.

And you are literally arguing with me over a couple of homers. Really?

Face it. The guy is a legit power hitter....whether it's PetCo field or Citizens. Citizens hasn't made him a great power hitter and it shouldn't be expected to make another player a great power hitter.

A. I never said Howard wasn't a power hitter. Actually, I said the exact reverse. I said he is a power hitter and that's a bad thing for how his skills are going to age.B. My link does say something about Howard. If you scroll down, you'll see all of Howard's home HRs from last year. All the relevant information is there including who threw it, how far it would have went if it had been hit in an open field, and how many parks it would have gone out in.

C. I'm arguing with your idea that Howard is not helped out by his home park or rather, the idea that you "proved" that he wasn't. He clearly was. It might not have been a great amount, so he only would have hit 42 instead of 45 last year, but this proves more than your home road splits and more importantly, undermines this idea that you seem to have that these things can't be measured. They can be. And they have.

Basically, this thread has split people into 3 camps.

1. People who follow baseball statistics and who believe something meaningful can be said about player values now that could not have been, or were not, twenty years ago.

2. People who follow baseball and believe that all the statistics you need to identify a good player have been around for much longer than twenty years.

3. Phillies homers who are taking whatever position they are but I don't know if it's because if they belong to camp 2 or because they don't want to admit their FO just really screwed up.

I'm very clearly in camp 1. And everyone in camp 1 seems to agree that this was a bad, bad deal for the Phillies. Ryan Howard is a good hitter. Yes. Ryan Howard is a power hitter. Yes. Ryan Howard has a scary chance of falling off the cliff in 2 or 3 years right when this contract is starting. It's a bad deal.

 

[crewmember]

Phillies can't sign any of these guys so I don't know what the point of listing guys you like over Howard is.

My point is the 15th best hitter in baseball got paid like the 2nd best

that's fine but the phillies don't have the option of signing the 2nd best hitter. Only had the option of Ryan Howard and evidently this is what it took to extend him. If you don't think they should have that's fine but don't see point of talking about other great hitters. The next contracts in a year or 2 the players will be making more then Howard. If not then it was a really bad deal.

Not this very second the Phillies don't have the option of signing the 2nd best hitter, no. But the Phillies didn't have to act this very second. They had a year and a half to think about what to do with Howard. But in the next 2 years the following 1B's should be FAs: Berkman, Pujols, Konerko, Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. And there's always some talent available to teams willing to take other teams' bad contracts.The Phillies had much more in the way of options than resigning Howard.

YUCK, talking about howard dropping off with age. lance, paulie, and derrick in 2 years? no thank you. then the other three might never hit free agency. i don't know much about pena though.

 

[eoMMan]

How can you be so sure that the park doesn't inflate Howard's numbers? Because he's hit more HRs on the road the last 3 years?

First, there's such a thing as statistical variance. Just because Howard hit fewer HRs at home doesn't mean that he wouldn't have hit even fewer than he did if his home park was Petco.

Yes, I know what statistical variance is. That's why I used 3 years instead of a single year.

Second, why not look at his career. Why stop at 3 years. At home, he has hit 108 HRs and away he has hit 117. You win, you say!!!! Not so fast. That's over 1305 home ABs vs 1465 away ABs. So his HR per AB is actually higher at home.

Okay, so that's 160 home ABs that he's missing. Even if he stayed the same pace, the split home versus away is pretty much the same. There's no clear indication that the home park as helped his power numbers and no clear indication that it would help another power hitter in his place.

Also, you mentioned Petco. I guess if Adrian Gonzalez can hit 40 homers there, he must be the best power hitter since Hank Aaron, right, being that it's such a hard park to hit homers at?

There's other problems but those are the big ones. You haven't really shown anything.

Adding 2 years doesn't mean you grasp statistical variance and it certainly doesn't mean that you've proven anything. As far as clear indication that his home park helped his power numbers, actually it does exist. Here: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php?...er&sort=asc Most of Howard's HRs would have been out in any park but 3 of his home HRs last year would have only been out in under a third and one of them only in Citizens Park and one other.

You act like this is either hocus pocus or something so complicated that nobody can figure it out. It's not and they have.

Adding more years does lower variance because your sample is bigger.Your link doesn't say anything about Howard.

And you are literally arguing with me over a couple of homers. Really?

Face it. The guy is a legit power hitter....whether it's PetCo field or Citizens. Citizens hasn't made him a great power hitter and it shouldn't be expected to make another player a great power hitter.

A. I never said Howard wasn't a power hitter. Actually, I said the exact reverse. I said he is a power hitter and that's a bad thing for how his skills are going to age.I never said that you said he wasn't a power hitter. My whole point has been about Howard and Citizens.

B. My link does say something about Howard. If you scroll down, you'll see all of Howard's home HRs from last year. All the relevant information is there including who threw it, how far it would have went if it had been hit in an open field, and how many parks it would have gone out in.

To be honest, your link sucks and is hard to navigate. I have to do some digging to even find his name.

C. I'm arguing with your idea that Howard is not helped out by his home park or rather, the idea that you "proved" that he wasn't. He clearly was. It might not have been a great amount, so he only would have hit 42 instead of 45 last year, but this proves more than your home road splits and more importantly, undermines this idea that you seem to have that these things can't be measured. They can be. And they have.

Like I said above, your link sucks. And if your whole argument is that Howard was helped by a difference of a couple of home runs, then it can't be expected that any good power hitter will come in and hit 45 homers consistently and 140 RBI's. Based on your "Citizens increase", this hitter would have to already pretty much be a 40 homer, 130 RBI type guy and quite frankly, there aren't many of those players around.

Basically, this thread has split people into 3 camps.

1. People who follow baseball statistics and who believe something meaningful can be said about player values now that could not have been, or were not, twenty years ago.

2. People who follow baseball and believe that all the statistics you need to identify a good player have been around for much longer than twenty years.

3. Phillies homers who are taking whatever position they are but I don't know if it's because if they belong to camp 2 or because they don't want to admit their FO just really screwed up.

I'm very clearly in camp 1. And everyone in camp 1 seems to agree that this was a bad, bad deal for the Phillies. Ryan Howard is a good hitter. Yes. Ryan Howard is a power hitter. Yes. Ryan Howard has a scary chance of falling off the cliff in 2 or 3 years right when this contract is starting. It's a bad deal.

Is it because he's black?

 

[the moops]

2nd- No Phillies can def be suggested in that area. I always found Pat Burrell's rbi's to be inflated and it will by funny to see what a guy like polanco ends up with this year. It's just my opinion when you talk about 140+ rbi for howard, I don't see how inflated that can be. How much can be expected in that slot 160? 170? I think 140+ proves him to be one of the best guys in the league at driving in runs. Maybe a couple guys could knock in 160 but that's rather picky. Howard does about the best that anyone could do.

Howard, for his career has a 995 OPS with RISP. Compared with a career 955 OPS.I'm just going to pick a few random 1B to see how they compare.Youkilis 1.010 RISP. 879 career.Miguel Cabrera 941 RISP. 928 career.Prince Fielder 899 RISP. 926 career.Teixeira 1.024 RISP. 917 career.Adrian Gonzalez 943 RISP. 874 career. Pujols 1.158 RISP. 1.055 career (good god this guy is awesome)So, he is better at the plate with RISP than Cabrera, Fielder and Gonzalez. Worse than Youkilis, Teixeira and Pujols. These were the 6 guys that came to mind, I didnt look any further. So, Howard does indeed do very well with RISP. But it seems that a few other guys could also drive in 160 if they were in his spot. And this is only limited to 1B. I am sure there are quite a few other guys with similar, or better numbers with RISP.

 

[Snotbubbles]

And that contradicts anything I've stated how, exactly? Oh that's right, it doesn't remotely.Read a little more closely. I said "Hitting in the middle of the line up, playing half their games in that home park, there are no less than 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers". That's saying that players who don't have the benefit of hitting in that park OR have the benefit of that line up around them could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers if they also got to play with those benefits. Pujols puts up routinely better numbers across the board playing in one of the worst hitter's parks in baseball. What would Matt Kemp do if you switched him and Howard? Longoria?

Why even mention the park then? I showed how the park DOESN'T inflate Howard's power numbers. Why are you so sure it would inflate another hitter's?And "reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers"?. Really? You mean 20 to 25 other players would be reasonably expected to hit 45 homers and put up 140 RBI's? That's just crazy talk. Sorry.

Because it's easier to hit home runs in Philly than it is in St. Louis, LA, or Tampa. If you take a player who plays 82 games in a park that suppresses HR production and move them to a park that inflates HR production, you could reasonably expect their production numbers to increase. As for my "crazy talk", it's only crazy to those who don't understand that there are objective ways to measure such things, and those objective measures very strongly suggest that there are at least 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers.

:sigh:

How can you be so sure that the park doesn't inflate Howard's numbers? Because he's hit more HRs on the road the last 3 years?First, there's such a thing as statistical variance. Just because Howard hit fewer HRs at home doesn't mean that he wouldn't have hit even fewer than he did if his home park was Petco.Second, why not look at his career. Why stop at 3 years. At home, he has hit 108 HRs and away he has hit 117. You win, you say!!!! Not so fast. That's over 1305 home ABs vs 1465 away ABs. So his HR per AB is actually higher at home.There's other problems but those are the big ones. You haven't really shown anything.

The difference in HR splits is negligible. In 2009 CBP ranked 16th in HR factor, Howard still hit 45 HRs.When you and Babe Ruth are the only players to hit 45 HRs and have 135 RBIs in 4 consecutive seasons, I'd say you are doing something right. I used to have the same line of thinking that you did. I thought park factors mattered. I thought Matt Holliday was a product of Coors field. His home/road splits were like night and day. Then when he got to St. Louis he tore it up and I totally changed my thinking about park factor.

 

[Guest]

How can you be so sure that the park doesn't inflate Howard's numbers? Because he's hit more HRs on the road the last 3 years?

First, there's such a thing as statistical variance. Just because Howard hit fewer HRs at home doesn't mean that he wouldn't have hit even fewer than he did if his home park was Petco.

Yes, I know what statistical variance is. That's why I used 3 years instead of a single year.

Second, why not look at his career. Why stop at 3 years. At home, he has hit 108 HRs and away he has hit 117. You win, you say!!!! Not so fast. That's over 1305 home ABs vs 1465 away ABs. So his HR per AB is actually higher at home.

Okay, so that's 160 home ABs that he's missing. Even if he stayed the same pace, the split home versus away is pretty much the same. There's no clear indication that the home park as helped his power numbers and no clear indication that it would help another power hitter in his place.

Also, you mentioned Petco. I guess if Adrian Gonzalez can hit 40 homers there, he must be the best power hitter since Hank Aaron, right, being that it's such a hard park to hit homers at?

There's other problems but those are the big ones. You haven't really shown anything.

Adding 2 years doesn't mean you grasp statistical variance and it certainly doesn't mean that you've proven anything. As far as clear indication that his home park helped his power numbers, actually it does exist. Here: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php?...er&sort=asc Most of Howard's HRs would have been out in any park but 3 of his home HRs last year would have only been out in under a third and one of them only in Citizens Park and one other.

You act like this is either hocus pocus or something so complicated that nobody can figure it out. It's not and they have.

Adding more years does lower variance because your sample is bigger.Your link doesn't say anything about Howard.

And you are literally arguing with me over a couple of homers. Really?

Face it. The guy is a legit power hitter....whether it's PetCo field or Citizens. Citizens hasn't made him a great power hitter and it shouldn't be expected to make another player a great power hitter.

A. I never said Howard wasn't a power hitter. Actually, I said the exact reverse. I said he is a power hitter and that's a bad thing for how his skills are going to age.I never said that you said he wasn't a power hitter. My whole point has been about Howard and Citizens.

B. My link does say something about Howard. If you scroll down, you'll see all of Howard's home HRs from last year. All the relevant information is there including who threw it, how far it would have went if it had been hit in an open field, and how many parks it would have gone out in.

To be honest, your link sucks and is hard to navigate. I have to do some digging to even find his name.

C. I'm arguing with your idea that Howard is not helped out by his home park or rather, the idea that you "proved" that he wasn't. He clearly was. It might not have been a great amount, so he only would have hit 42 instead of 45 last year, but this proves more than your home road splits and more importantly, undermines this idea that you seem to have that these things can't be measured. They can be. And they have.

Like I said above, your link sucks. And if your whole argument is that Howard was helped by a difference of a couple of home runs, then it can't be expected that any good power hitter will come in and hit 45 homers consistently and 140 RBI's. Based on your "Citizens increase", this hitter would have to already pretty much be a 40 homer, 130 RBI type guy and quite frankly, there aren't many of those players around.

Basically, this thread has split people into 3 camps.

1. People who follow baseball statistics and who believe something meaningful can be said about player values now that could not have been, or were not, twenty years ago.

2. People who follow baseball and believe that all the statistics you need to identify a good player have been around for much longer than twenty years.

3. Phillies homers who are taking whatever position they are but I don't know if it's because if they belong to camp 2 or because they don't want to admit their FO just really screwed up.

I'm very clearly in camp 1. And everyone in camp 1 seems to agree that this was a bad, bad deal for the Phillies. Ryan Howard is a good hitter. Yes. Ryan Howard is a power hitter. Yes. Ryan Howard has a scary chance of falling off the cliff in 2 or 3 years right when this contract is starting. It's a bad deal.

Is it because he's black?

EOMM: Howard's #s aren't helped by his home park. Here. I'll prove it with his home road splits.

Matthias: His career home road #s he hits slightly more HRs per AB at home than on the road.

EOMM: There's no clear indication that his home park helped his #s. And if this home park thing is so important, is Adrian Gonzalez Hank Aaron?

Matthias: Here's a website that figures out for every HR hit in the majors how far the home run traveled and how many parks it would have gone out in. Last year, Howard was helped out in 3 HRs by having a friendly ballpark. And one of those HRs only would have gone out in 2 ballparks in the majors.

EOMM: Your link sucks. I can't tell what it's saying. And you have to be a power hitter like Howard to get the #s he has. And your link sucks; did I mention that already?

Matthias: WTF.

 

[Guest]

The difference in HR splits is negligible. In 2009 CBP ranked 16th in HR factor, Howard still hit 45 HRs.

When you and Babe Ruth are the only players to hit 45 HRs and have 135 RBIs in 4 consecutive seasons, I'd say you are doing something right.

I used to have the same line of thinking that you did. I thought park factors mattered. I thought Matt Holliday was a product of Coors field. His home/road splits were like night and day. Then when he got to St. Louis he tore it up and I totally changed my thinking about park factor.

EOMM is trying to make this debate with me into something that it's not.Not once in this thread did I say that Ryan Howard was a bad player right now. And not once in this discussion with EOMM did I even say anything about Ryan Howard as a hitter until he brought it in. All I'm disputing with EOMM is that he believes he earlier "proved" that Howard was not helped out by his home ballpark. That is demonstrably false. That's it. End of story.

 

[eoMMan]

EOMM: Howard's #s aren't helped by his home park. Here. I'll prove it with his home road splits.Matthias: His career home road #s he hits slightly more HRs per AB at home than on the road. EOMM: There's no clear indication that his home park helped his #s. And if this home park thing is so important, is Adrian Gonzalez Hank Aaron?Matthias: Here's a website that figures out for every HR hit in the majors how far the home run traveled and how many parks it would have gone out in. Last year, Howard was helped out in 3 HRs by having a friendly ballpark. And one of those HRs only would have gone out in 2 ballparks in the majors.EOMM: Your link sucks. I can't tell what it's saying. And you have to be a power hitter like Howard to get the #s he has. And your link sucks; did I mention that already?Matthias: WTF.

Yeah, that didn't leave anything out.Have a good day, sir.I look forward to seeing Placido Polanco knock out 30 homers this year.

 

[Guest]

EOMM: Howard's #s aren't helped by his home park. Here. I'll prove it with his home road splits.Matthias: His career home road #s he hits slightly more HRs per AB at home than on the road. EOMM: There's no clear indication that his home park helped his #s. And if this home park thing is so important, is Adrian Gonzalez Hank Aaron?Matthias: Here's a website that figures out for every HR hit in the majors how far the home run traveled and how many parks it would have gone out in. Last year, Howard was helped out in 3 HRs by having a friendly ballpark. And one of those HRs only would have gone out in 2 ballparks in the majors.EOMM: Your link sucks. I can't tell what it's saying. And you have to be a power hitter like Howard to get the #s he has. And your link sucks; did I mention that already?Matthias: WTF.

Yeah, that didn't leave anything out.Have a good day, sir.I look forward to seeing Placido Polanco knock out 30 homers this year.

It left out the misleading crap you kept trying to throw in there that I wasn't actually talking about.

 

[Darth Cheney]

I understand the whole argument about the Phillies waiting for another year to see how he holds up...(although I imagine the Phillies FO would say something to the point about them not wanting to go into a contract year with Howard not locked up as he'd probably be more willing to test the FA waters). But, to those who don't like the contract extension, if he were to hit the FA market in 2012, how much and what kind of contract do you think he'd get?

 

[eoMMan]

The difference in HR splits is negligible. In 2009 CBP ranked 16th in HR factor, Howard still hit 45 HRs.

When you and Babe Ruth are the only players to hit 45 HRs and have 135 RBIs in 4 consecutive seasons, I'd say you are doing something right.

I used to have the same line of thinking that you did. I thought park factors mattered. I thought Matt Holliday was a product of Coors field. His home/road splits were like night and day. Then when he got to St. Louis he tore it up and I totally changed my thinking about park factor.

EOMM is trying to make this debate with me into something that it's not.Not once in this thread did I say that Ryan Howard was a bad player right now. And not once in this discussion with EOMM did I even say anything about Ryan Howard as a hitter until he brought it in. All I'm disputing with EOMM is that he believes he earlier "proved" that Howard was not helped out by his home ballpark. That is demonstrably false. That's it. End of story.

And if we are just looking at last year, like you want to....How do you explain this?

2009

Home: 291 ABs, 18 HR's, 57 RBI

Away: 325 ABs, 27 HR's, 84 RBI

I'll hang up and listen....

Link

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...g&year=2009

 

[eoMMan]

What's even funnier, if you look at the link I posted, Howard had 2 homers in 11 at bats at PetCo field, which is supposedly a bad hitter's park.

 

[Guest]

I understand the whole argument about the Phillies waiting for another year to see how he holds up...(although I imagine the Phillies FO would say something to the point about them not wanting to go into a contract year with Howard not locked up as he'd probably be more willing to test the FA waters). But, to those who don't like the contract extension, if he were to hit the FA market in 2012, how much and what kind of contract do you think he'd get?

Assuming this year and next year he's basically the same as he has been? I would guess he'd get a 5 & $90MM deal. Miguel Cabrera signed for just $1MM more in AAV 2 years ago and he's still very young and in his prime. But even at 5 & 90 I'd call it a bad contract but it's still not as bad as the one the Phillies wrote and frankly, you let someone else make those mistakes.

 

[Guest]

The difference in HR splits is negligible. In 2009 CBP ranked 16th in HR factor, Howard still hit 45 HRs.

When you and Babe Ruth are the only players to hit 45 HRs and have 135 RBIs in 4 consecutive seasons, I'd say you are doing something right.

I used to have the same line of thinking that you did. I thought park factors mattered. I thought Matt Holliday was a product of Coors field. His home/road splits were like night and day. Then when he got to St. Louis he tore it up and I totally changed my thinking about park factor.

EOMM is trying to make this debate with me into something that it's not.Not once in this thread did I say that Ryan Howard was a bad player right now. And not once in this discussion with EOMM did I even say anything about Ryan Howard as a hitter until he brought it in. All I'm disputing with EOMM is that he believes he earlier "proved" that Howard was not helped out by his home ballpark. That is demonstrably false. That's it. End of story.

And if we are just looking at last year, like you want to....How do you explain this?

2009

Home: 291 ABs, 18 HR's, 57 RBI

Away: 325 ABs, 27 HR's, 84 RBI

I'll hang up and listen....

Link

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...g&year=2009

The only reason I looked at only last year is because hittracker doesn't do it by career. It only does it by year. And the point was proven for that one year. It would have been pointless to do it for every year and every park favored HR Howard has ever had.How do I "explain" your #s above? Easy. The same way that I "explain" someone flipping Heads 8 times in a row. It's unlikely but it happens. You have noise in the data. Again, you think that you're "proving" something when all that you're proving is that you don't understand what it is we're talking about.

Re: the 2 HRs in Petco. Howard hits a # of HRs 450 feet. Those go out in lots of ballparks. However, he also sometimes hits balls that go 325 feet. And those go out in his home park as HRs that wouldn't in others.

I've explained, and you've refused to understand, all that I have the time or inclination to do. So I'm done with this little dance.

 

[Eephus]

I understand the whole argument about the Phillies waiting for another year to see how he holds up...(although I imagine the Phillies FO would say something to the point about them not wanting to go into a contract year with Howard not locked up as he'd probably be more willing to test the FA waters). But, to those who don't like the contract extension, if he were to hit the FA market in 2012, how much and what kind of contract do you think he'd get?

It's obviously dependent on how he performs in 2010-2 and what happens with payroll inflation. If he was a 32 year old 1B coming off a season like he had last year, I think the market would set his salary near the $20M-$25M he's making with the extension. I'm less sure about the duration of the contact. Howard might be willing to settle for a lower annual figure in exchange for a longer term. The Yankees probably wouldn't be involved in the bidding but the Mets could be a player depending on whether they acquire someone in the interim. I guess we'll never know now.

 

[eoMMan]

The difference in HR splits is negligible. In 2009 CBP ranked 16th in HR factor, Howard still hit 45 HRs.

When you and Babe Ruth are the only players to hit 45 HRs and have 135 RBIs in 4 consecutive seasons, I'd say you are doing something right.

I used to have the same line of thinking that you did. I thought park factors mattered. I thought Matt Holliday was a product of Coors field. His home/road splits were like night and day. Then when he got to St. Louis he tore it up and I totally changed my thinking about park factor.

EOMM is trying to make this debate with me into something that it's not.Not once in this thread did I say that Ryan Howard was a bad player right now. And not once in this discussion with EOMM did I even say anything about Ryan Howard as a hitter until he brought it in. All I'm disputing with EOMM is that he believes he earlier "proved" that Howard was not helped out by his home ballpark. That is demonstrably false. That's it. End of story.

And if we are just looking at last year, like you want to....How do you explain this?

2009

Home: 291 ABs, 18 HR's, 57 RBI

Away: 325 ABs, 27 HR's, 84 RBI

I'll hang up and listen....

Link

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...g&year=2009

The only reason I looked at only last year is because hittracker doesn't do it by career. It only does it by year. And the point was proven for that one year. It would have been pointless to do it for every year and every park favored HR Howard has ever had.How do I "explain" your #s above? Easy. The same way that I "explain" someone flipping Heads 8 times in a row. It's unlikely but it happens. You have noise in the data. Again, you think that you're "proving" something when all that you're proving is that you don't understand what it is we're talking about.

Re: the 2 HRs in Petco. Howard hits a # of HRs 450 feet. Those go out in lots of ballparks. However, he also sometimes hits balls that go 325 feet. And those go out in his home park as HRs that wouldn't in others.

I've explained, and you've refused to understand, all that I have the time or inclination to do. So I'm done with this little dance.

 

[Guest]

I understand the whole argument about the Phillies waiting for another year to see how he holds up...(although I imagine the Phillies FO would say something to the point about them not wanting to go into a contract year with Howard not locked up as he'd probably be more willing to test the FA waters). But, to those who don't like the contract extension, if he were to hit the FA market in 2012, how much and what kind of contract do you think he'd get?

Here's an interesting POV: the hometown discount is actually a hometown tax. In other words, Howard got more than he would have on the open market so the Phillies could prove to their fanbase that they mean serious business.

 

[Darth Cheney]

I understand the whole argument about the Phillies waiting for another year to see how he holds up...(although I imagine the Phillies FO would say something to the point about them not wanting to go into a contract year with Howard not locked up as he'd probably be more willing to test the FA waters). But, to those who don't like the contract extension, if he were to hit the FA market in 2012, how much and what kind of contract do you think he'd get?

It's obviously dependent on how he performs in 2010-2 and what happens with payroll inflation. If he was a 32 year old 1B coming off a season like he had last year, I think the market would set his salary near the $20M-$25M he's making with the extension. I'm less sure about the duration of the contact. Howard might be willing to settle for a lower annual figure in exchange for a longer term. The Yankees probably wouldn't be involved in the bidding but the Mets could be a player depending on whether they acquire someone in the interim. I guess we'll never know now.

Let's take out his MVP year and say he averages his last three years for the next two. I don't think for that production, 20 - 25M for 4 or 5 years is out of the question. As far as the Phils FO go, I'm sure they're looking at a number of reasons other than just his expected production that the rest of the league would pay for (which obviously should account of the bulk of his salary) for giving him the money they did.

I imagine they think

[*]The window for WS championships with the majority of this group now extends until 2013.That would have been more difficult if Howard walked after 2011.

[*]That it sends a message to other players and FA that the team is committed to its players and is looking to be a legit contender until at least 2013.

[*]The work ethic that Howard has shown in regards to both his D and his cutting of his "baby fat" will continue.

[*]With the continuation of his work ethic and if's lucky enough to not amass a significant injuries...the end of the contract should see him pushing for 500 career HR. That in itself could help revenue regardless of what the team has done.

[*]The Devil that you know is better than the devil you don't. Howard has shown that he can handle the pressure of Philadelphia....maybe the FO thinks someone like A-Gon might not be able to do that. Prince Fielder's contract will be up around that time....maybe Philly doesn't think his work ethic is quite as good or that he (more that Howard) fits the architypical "Fat guy who falls off the cliff at 33" body type of such notable porkers as David Ortiz, Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn. Albert Pujols...? There's not a lot you can defend Ryan with in regards to comparisons with Prince Albert....but maybe they know his cost will be too high for them, they're worried about an injury or two or think that juiced in the past?

 

[whoknew]

that's fine but the phillies don't have the option of signing the 2nd best hitter. Only had the option of Ryan Howard and evidently this is what it took to extend him.

The Phillies had the much better option of doing nothing. Howard was signed for 2011 and 2012. They didnt need to do this now. The ony reason you sign, or extend guys like this is 1) buy out some arbitration years or 2) get somewhat of a discount in that the player gives up some yearly money for longer years. The Phillies didnt do either of these things. They just decided to give a very good player an outrageous extension that covers his decline years. It is a baffling deal.

Yea I actually agree with most all this, I'm not crazy about the deal although I am defending Howard in here. I'd rather wait too but maybe Ruben wants to do it so he can plan ahead with werth or elsewhere, at least now he can plan somewhat more. Not the biggest fan of the GM but I have a little faith he either has a plan or knows what the market is. You are right though and extension without a discount is dumb. But if he makes the same amount as fielder and adrian then I won't be too upset.

Why do the Phillies specifically avoid statistical analysis? Or more appropriately - advanced statistical analysis? It's my understanding they are basically proud of the fact that they don't have any statisticians on staff.

 

[JaxBill]

I understand the whole argument about the Phillies waiting for another year to see how he holds up...(although I imagine the Phillies FO would say something to the point about them not wanting to go into a contract year with Howard not locked up as he'd probably be more willing to test the FA waters). But, to those who don't like the contract extension, if he were to hit the FA market in 2012, how much and what kind of contract do you think he'd get?

It's obviously dependent on how he performs in 2010-2 and what happens with payroll inflation. If he was a 32 year old 1B coming off a season like he had last year, I think the market would set his salary near the $20M-$25M he's making with the extension. I'm less sure about the duration of the contact. Howard might be willing to settle for a lower annual figure in exchange for a longer term. The Yankees probably wouldn't be involved in the bidding but the Mets could be a player depending on whether they acquire someone in the interim. I guess we'll never know now.

That's one thing people are overlooking. He was already making 19 Mil this year and 20 Mil in 2011. If he put up last year's numbers in 2011, do people really think he'd play in 2012-2013 without a raise?Like Darth Cheney says, by signing him early, they pushed the window out to 2013.

 

[Eephus]

I understand the whole argument about the Phillies waiting for another year to see how he holds up...(although I imagine the Phillies FO would say something to the point about them not wanting to go into a contract year with Howard not locked up as he'd probably be more willing to test the FA waters). But, to those who don't like the contract extension, if he were to hit the FA market in 2012, how much and what kind of contract do you think he'd get?

It's obviously dependent on how he performs in 2010-2 and what happens with payroll inflation. If he was a 32 year old 1B coming off a season like he had last year, I think the market would set his salary near the $20M-$25M he's making with the extension. I'm less sure about the duration of the contact. Howard might be willing to settle for a lower annual figure in exchange for a longer term. The Yankees probably wouldn't be involved in the bidding but the Mets could be a player depending on whether they acquire someone in the interim. I guess we'll never know now.

That's one thing people are overlooking. He was already making 19 Mil this year and 20 Mil in 2011. If he put up last year's numbers in 2011, do people really think he'd play in 2012-2013 without a raise?Like Darth Cheney says, by signing him early, they pushed the window out to 2013.

True, but the Phillies are committing out to his age 35 season based on his production as a 29 year old. Howard holding value from age 30-32 is the best case scenario. He's unlikely to improve from where he is now, and the thread has already mentioned indications of age-based regression.

 

[dparker713]

I understand the whole argument about the Phillies waiting for another year to see how he holds up...(although I imagine the Phillies FO would say something to the point about them not wanting to go into a contract year with Howard not locked up as he'd probably be more willing to test the FA waters). But, to those who don't like the contract extension, if he were to hit the FA market in 2012, how much and what kind of contract do you think he'd get?

2 offseasons is a long time in the future to project. The first major factor is the economy. This past offseason, salaries in general went down. I wouldn't expect much of a raise this upcoming offseason, so best case would seem to be a return to 2008-9 levels in 2011-2. Next, the big questions are who else is on the market and who needs 1B help. If Adrian Gonzalez, Fielder, and Pujols are on the market, his salary goes way down. Now I'd have expected atleast one and maybe two to get locked up before hitting the market. As for who would need a 1B and might be in the market, there are alot of maybes, but of the really big market teams only really the Cubs are likely to have a big hole at 1B (unless of course the Dodgers start spending money again)That said, I think 3-4 years at 17-18 mil maybe. Something in the Bay neighborhood.

 

[pollardsvision]

I really want to like this deal, but there's really not much defending it.

I like to see guys get paid and with all the whining about a lack of character, loyalty and team continuity in professional sports these days, it's nice to see a team lock up a guy who helped bring a city a championship after a long, miserable drought. Howard's power production is nothing short of breathtaking and I hate to see the panty-waste sabermatricians right about everything.

Problem is, the panty-waste sabermatricians keep being right. Plus, it doesn't take a stat nerd to hate this deal. They didn't need the deal. They are already old and letting Howard walk in 2 years probably would've been the smart thing to do anyway. All of the Philly fans I know always assumed Howard be gone because, well, it would've ludicrous to keep him. You'd think this move would be great for the fans, but I'd imagine most of the fans had already assumed Howard would go somewhere else to get overpaid. Now they all seem to be dreading that Howard will be the Phillies' Bagwell.

I want to love the deal, but it's really hard to see this being a good thing.

 

[Guest]

At the end of the day, I think the Ryan Howard contract will be what is known in my fantasy league as, "He hit 38 home runs last year!!!!"

In 2009, Carlos Delgado one guy paid $14 for Carlos Delgado at the auction. When it was pointed out to him that was a lot of money for someone who was 36 years old and a bad risk, he said, "He hit 38 Home Runs last year!!!!"

Ryan Howard hit 45 Home Runs last year!!!!

 

[Finless]

Don't like the deal at all but I wouldn't compare Howard to the rest of these overweight 1Bs and DH's. He's a beast. I would not consider him fat or in the same mold as Ortiz or Fielder.

A good deal would have been 4 years $80-$84M.

 

[Genedoc]

I really want to like this deal, but there's really not much defending it. I like to see guys get paid and with all the whining about a lack of character, loyalty and team continuity in professional sports these days, it's nice to see a team lock up a guy who helped bring a city a championship after a long, miserable drought. Howard's power production is nothing short of breathtaking and I hate to see the panty-waste sabermatricians right about everything.Problem is, the panty-waste sabermatricians keep being right. Plus, it doesn't take a stat nerd to hate this deal. They didn't need the deal. They are already old and letting Howard walk in 2 years probably would've been the smart thing to do anyway. All of the Philly fans I know always assumed Howard be gone because, well, it would've ludicrous to keep him. You'd think this move would be great for the fans, but I'd imagine most of the fans had already assumed Howard would go somewhere else to get overpaid. Now they all seem to be dreading that Howard will be the Phillies' Bagwell. I want to love the deal, but it's really hard to see this being a good thing.

Absolute best case scenario - Howard maintains his pace, and the Phillies have him signed to a market level deal for years. Median scenario - Howard produces at current pace for 2-3 years and begins to decline such that he's overpaid, but not a complete anchor the last few years. Worst case scenario - Howard produces at current pace for another year, maybe 2, and then David Ortiz's off a cliff. There is no realistic scenario where the Phillies got a steal. They either paid market if they're lucky, most likely overpaid by a fair amount, or possibly hamstrung themselves.

 

[Finless]

At the end of the day, I think the Ryan Howard contract will be what is known in my fantasy league as, "He hit 38 home runs last year!!!!"In 2009, Carlos Delgado one guy paid $14 for Carlos Delgado at the auction. When it was pointed out to him that was a lot of money for someone who was 36 years old and a bad risk, he said, "He hit 38 Home Runs last year!!!!"Ryan Howard hit 45 Home Runs last year!!!!

There's a track record here. He hits that many every year. Comparing him to Delgado is pointless.

 

[Guest]

At the end of the day, I think the Ryan Howard contract will be what is known in my fantasy league as, "He hit 38 home runs last year!!!!"In 2009, Carlos Delgado one guy paid $14 for Carlos Delgado at the auction. When it was pointed out to him that was a lot of money for someone who was 36 years old and a bad risk, he said, "He hit 38 Home Runs last year!!!!"Ryan Howard hit 45 Home Runs last year!!!!

There's a track record here. He hits that many every year. Comparing him to Delgado is pointless.

Check Carlos Delado's track record.

 

[Guest]

Don't like the deal at all but I wouldn't compare Howard to the rest of these overweight 1Bs and DH's. He's a beast. I would not consider him fat or in the same mold as Ortiz or Fielder.

A good deal would have been 4 years $80-$84M.

You might not consider him in the same mold as Ortiz or Cecil Fielder but according to Baseball Reference, they are two of his top comparables.It's not like we're just sitting around picking guys at random.

 

[Guest]

I really want to like this deal, but there's really not much defending it. I like to see guys get paid and with all the whining about a lack of character, loyalty and team continuity in professional sports these days, it's nice to see a team lock up a guy who helped bring a city a championship after a long, miserable drought. Howard's power production is nothing short of breathtaking and I hate to see the panty-waste sabermatricians right about everything.Problem is, the panty-waste sabermatricians keep being right. Plus, it doesn't take a stat nerd to hate this deal. They didn't need the deal. They are already old and letting Howard walk in 2 years probably would've been the smart thing to do anyway. All of the Philly fans I know always assumed Howard be gone because, well, it would've ludicrous to keep him. You'd think this move would be great for the fans, but I'd imagine most of the fans had already assumed Howard would go somewhere else to get overpaid. Now they all seem to be dreading that Howard will be the Phillies' Bagwell. I want to love the deal, but it's really hard to see this being a good thing.

Absolute best case scenario - Howard maintains his pace, and the Phillies have him signed to a market level deal for years. Median scenario - Howard produces at current pace for 2-3 years and begins to decline such that he's overpaid, but not a complete anchor the last few years. Worst case scenario - Howard produces at current pace for another year, maybe 2, and then David Ortiz's off a cliff. There is no realistic scenario where the Phillies got a steal. They either paid market if they're lucky, most likely overpaid by a fair amount, or possibly hamstrung themselves.

:

 

[Genedoc]

At the end of the day, I think the Ryan Howard contract will be what is known in my fantasy league as, "He hit 38 home runs last year!!!!"In 2009, Carlos Delgado one guy paid $14 for Carlos Delgado at the auction. When it was pointed out to him that was a lot of money for someone who was 36 years old and a bad risk, he said, "He hit 38 Home Runs last year!!!!"Ryan Howard hit 45 Home Runs last year!!!!

There's a track record here. He hits that many every year. Comparing him to Delgado is pointless.

Delgado averaged 38HRs/year for more than a decade, until he hit his mid-30's. And by the way, Delgado's career #'s are virtually identical to Howard's: Avg/OBP/Slug/OPS/OPS+.280 .383 .546 .929 138.279 .373 .582 .955 141

 

[Finless]

At the end of the day, I think the Ryan Howard contract will be what is known in my fantasy league as, "He hit 38 home runs last year!!!!"In 2009, Carlos Delgado one guy paid $14 for Carlos Delgado at the auction. When it was pointed out to him that was a lot of money for someone who was 36 years old and a bad risk, he said, "He hit 38 Home Runs last year!!!!"Ryan Howard hit 45 Home Runs last year!!!!

There's a track record here. He hits that many every year. Comparing him to Delgado is pointless.

Check Carlos Delado's track record.

I think there was a bit of an age difference there. And as far and comparing goes I wasn't talking numbers. I was talking body type. He's no Cecil Fielder or Mo Vaughn. And he's proved he can hit HR's at a rate higher than just about anyone.As stated I don't think it's a good deal at all but some of the things being posted in here are silly.

 

[Guest]

At the end of the day, I think the Ryan Howard contract will be what is known in my fantasy league as, "He hit 38 home runs last year!!!!"In 2009, Carlos Delgado one guy paid $14 for Carlos Delgado at the auction. When it was pointed out to him that was a lot of money for someone who was 36 years old and a bad risk, he said, "He hit 38 Home Runs last year!!!!"Ryan Howard hit 45 Home Runs last year!!!!

There's a track record here. He hits that many every year. Comparing him to Delgado is pointless.

Check Carlos Delado's track record.

I think there was a bit of an age difference there. And as far and comparing goes I wasn't talking numbers. I was talking body type. He's no Cecil Fielder or Mo Vaughn. And he's proved he can hit HR's at a rate higher than just about anyone.As stated I don't think it's a good deal at all but some of the things being posted in here are silly.

Ryan Howard will be in his mid 30's during this new extension. The age comparison is even valid.Howard might have slimmed down a little bit but he's still an undeniably big guy. And when you look at the players that his skill set compares to, the players he compares to are Ortiz, Fielder, and others. And those players have experienced fast, and severe, declines just as this new contract is kicking in. Nobody is saying, "This is a bad contract. Ryan Howard is fat." What you think you're disagreeing with doesn't exist.

 

[Finless]

At the end of the day, I think the Ryan Howard contract will be what is known in my fantasy league as, "He hit 38 home runs last year!!!!"In 2009, Carlos Delgado one guy paid $14 for Carlos Delgado at the auction. When it was pointed out to him that was a lot of money for someone who was 36 years old and a bad risk, he said, "He hit 38 Home Runs last year!!!!"Ryan Howard hit 45 Home Runs last year!!!!

There's a track record here. He hits that many every year. Comparing him to Delgado is pointless.

Delgado averaged 38HRs/year for more than a decade, until he hit his mid-30's. And by the way, Delgado's career #'s are virtually identical to Howard's: Avg/OBP/Slug/OPS/OPS+.280 .383 .546 .929 138.279 .373 .582 .955 141

YES! And Howard is 30, not mid 30's. He'll be right where most of his contemporaries where when they started to fall off when his contract ends. I better bail before the Sabermetrics Clan get hostile.One thing I will say is if his WORB and BIRP begin to decline this year, we'll know the real story.

 

[Michael Brown]

The difference in HR splits is negligible. In 2009 CBP ranked 16th in HR factor, Howard still hit 45 HRs.

When you and Babe Ruth are the only players to hit 45 HRs and have 135 RBIs in 4 consecutive seasons, I'd say you are doing something right.

I used to have the same line of thinking that you did. I thought park factors mattered. I thought Matt Holliday was a product of Coors field. His home/road splits were like night and day. Then when he got to St. Louis he tore it up and I totally changed my thinking about park factor.

EOMM is trying to make this debate with me into something that it's not.Not once in this thread did I say that Ryan Howard was a bad player right now. And not once in this discussion with EOMM did I even say anything about Ryan Howard as a hitter until he brought it in. All I'm disputing with EOMM is that he believes he earlier "proved" that Howard was not helped out by his home ballpark. That is demonstrably false. That's it. End of story.

And if we are just looking at last year, like you want to....How do you explain this?

2009

Home: 291 ABs, 18 HR's, 57 RBI

Away: 325 ABs, 27 HR's, 84 RBI

I'll hang up and listen....

Link

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...g&year=2009

The only reason I looked at only last year is because hittracker doesn't do it by career. It only does it by year. And the point was proven for that one year. It would have been pointless to do it for every year and every park favored HR Howard has ever had.How do I "explain" your #s above? Easy. The same way that I "explain" someone flipping Heads 8 times in a row. It's unlikely but it happens. You have noise in the data. Again, you think that you're "proving" something when all that you're proving is that you don't understand what it is we're talking about.

Re: the 2 HRs in Petco. Howard hits a # of HRs 450 feet. Those go out in lots of ballparks. However, he also sometimes hits balls that go 325 feet. And those go out in his home park as HRs that wouldn't in others.

I've explained, and you've refused to understand, all that I have the time or inclination to do. So I'm done with this little dance.

I understand your point entirely and I have no dog in the fight, but I do have curiosity about one thing. Are there any balls that Howard hit that weren't HRs at home that WOULD be HRs elsewhere? I understand he hit 3 HR in CBP that would've been outs just about everywhere else, but is there data on the LCF gap or dead CF where he crushed a ball to the wall for an out (or even a double) but that would've cleared the wall in an odder, angular stadium? Or even one with a shorter CF wall?

 

[Guest]

YES! And Howard is 30, not mid 30's. He'll be right where most of his contemporaries where when they started to fall off when his contract ends. I better bail before the Sabermetrics Clan get hostile.

One thing I will say is if his WORB and BIRP begin to decline this year, we'll know the real story.

No.Ryan Howard will be 31 in the first year this extension kicks in. Here's the production of his top comparables from their age 31 year and onward.

Sim  Player			  From  To Yrs   G	AB	R	H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO	BA   OBP   SLG   SB   CS OPS+ +---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+	  Ryan Howard		 Was not playing, is not playing, or has not yet played at this age. 918  Richie Sexson	   2006-2008  3  375  1305  162  307  70   0  67  206  158  340  .235  .320  .443	3   1  100 893  Cecil Fielder	   1995-1998  4  511  1862  244  460  70   2 100  328  266  453  .247  .345  .448	2   2  103 891  Mo Vaughn		   1999-2003  4  466  1704  233  455  71   0  98  312  206  475  .267  .356  .481	2   1  114 891* Willie McCovey	  1969-1980 12 1363  4239  570 1111 202  10 253  822  794  776  .262  .378  .494	7   4  142 890  David Ortiz		 2007-2010  4  422  1556  271  429 122   3  87  309  260  330  .276  .380  .526	4   4  131 890  Tony Clark		  2003-2009  7  697  1426  176  348  65   3  92  281  163  431  .244  .322  .487	0   0  106 889  Mark McGwire		1995-2001  7  884  2845  621  792 115   1 345  757  732  840  .278  .430  .683	6   1  183 889  Carlos Delgado	  2003-2009  7  901  3303  543  920 204   8 211  698  460  755  .279  .375  .537	5   2  136 885  Fred McGriff		1995-2004 10 1313  4773  646 1354 239   8 231  840  626  962  .284  .367  .482   27  15  119 876  Norm Cash		   1966-1974  9 1157  3759  542  996 130  20 196  559  496  652  .265  .355  .467   11   9  132

Most of those numbers do not look worth $25MM per year.

 

[Guest]

I understand your point entirely and I have no dog in the fight, but I do have curiosity about one thing. Are there any balls that Howard hit that weren't HRs at home that WOULD be HRs elsewhere? I understand he hit 3 HR in CBP that would've been outs just about everywhere else, but is there data on the LCF gap or dead CF where he crushed a ball to the wall for an out (or even a double) but that would've cleared the wall in an odder, angular stadium? Or even one with a shorter CF wall?

Possibly. I know Hittracker keeps this data on long fly outs for the past few seasons and I know when Manny Ramirez was traded to the Dodgers someone used hittracker, or something like it, to say that his HRs should actually go up playing in Dodger Stadium because of the height of the Green Monster. That said, I've nosed around their site and am not sure on where this is or how to answer your question. So: maybe, but I don't know.

 

[Billy Bats]

There's a whole lot of stupid going on in this thread.