Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Ryan Mathews Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[doowain]

True breakout season for one of the very few 3 down workhorse backs in the league. No more Tolbert. No VJax so they may rely on running game more than ever. Elite skills. Love this kid. Very high floor and #1RB upside. The stars are aligning.

290 carries

1450 yards

55 catches

450 yards

15 total TDs

 

[Tony Soprano]

I think there's a case to be made for Mathews to be the 4th running back selected in redrafts.

Mathews finished 7th in standard PPR scoring in 2011, despite playing in only 14 games. He averaged 4.9 YPC and caught 50 balls.

Tolbert and his 174 touches and 10 touchdowns are gone. I expect Mathews to gain at least 1/3 of those touches. Most importantly, I think Mathews will get the goal-line carries.

SD brings in a host of new receivers this year; it may take some time for the passing offense to get going, providing plenty of opportunity for the clear-cut starting RB.

rushing: 250 attempts, 1,110 yards, 12 TDs.

receiving: 70 receptions, 525 yards, 2 TDs.

 

[Nero]

330car 1400yds 8td

40rec 350yds 1td

 

[JetMaxx]

If I could get past the Mathews=Fragile Freddy comparisons I'd be stoked like the above. Guy gets nicked like a coffee table at a bar mitzvah after party.

 

[Jason Wood]

Ryan Mathews is reminding me a lot of the way Shaun Alexander used to be discussed in his prime. Alexander put up enormous numbers yet a lot of pundits would decry his ability to repeat for nebulous reasons, largely centered on a perception that he somehow avoided contact at times. Yet, Alexander was a fantasy dynamo for half a decade like clockwork. Cue Ryan Mathews. The only reason I hear people talk down Mathews is for those same nebulous reasons, implying that he's not "tough" or doesn't give it his all. But I see a guy that once he got the ball last year became a true fantasy star, and enters 2012 in his prime and the clear focal point of that offense. In an era where you can't come up with a list of 10 RBs that have even a shot at 300 carries, Mathews is to me among the most attractive options out there.

 

[mphtrilogy]

well, the knock is health, and with tolbert gone, it will be the RM show..., no vjax, no tolbert will lead to even more touches. I like him for 275 carries, 1350 yards, 50 catches 500 yards, 15 all purpose tds. IF hes on the field.. a big iffffff

 

[Jason Wood]

well, the knock is health, and with tolbert gone, it will be the RM show..., no vjax, no tolbert will lead to even more touches. I like him for 275 carries, 1350 yards, 50 catches 500 yards, 15 all purpose tds. IF hes on the field.. a big iffffff

The knock is health for EVERY back entering 2012, save for maybe LeSean McCoy. That's one of the frustrating things about this year's RB rankings and projections, can you remember a time when there were so few RBs that you could presume a full workload and weren't coming off missed time for minor or major injuries?

 

[Prussian]

Mathews could be one of the only RBs left inthe league not looking at a RBBC related loss of carries. That, along with his talent, means stud potential. Two more considerations, the perceived drop in value of the WR corps after losing VJax, and the health risk associated with his performance last year. I expect Mathews to become the game-time manager for San Diego's game this year. Especially given the quick strike potential of teams like Denver and Oakland in the division.

All things considered, Mathews should perform well.

305 carries, 1475 yards, 12 TD

50 catches, 350 yards, 3 TD

 

[TS Garp]

Ryan Mathews is reminding me a lot of the way Shaun Alexander used to be discussed in his prime. Alexander put up enormous numbers yet a lot of pundits would decry his ability to repeat for nebulous reasons, largely centered on a perception that he somehow avoided contact at times. Yet, Alexander was a fantasy dynamo for half a decade like clockwork. Cue Ryan Mathews. The only reason I hear people talk down Mathews is for those same nebulous reasons, implying that he's not "tough" or doesn't give it his all. But I see a guy that once he got the ball last year became a true fantasy star, and enters 2012 in his prime and the clear focal point of that offense. In an era where you can't come up with a list of 10 RBs that have even a shot at 300 carries, Mathews is to me among the most attractive options out there.

The reasons are not nebulous -- his injury history is fairly extensive dating back to college and I think the doubts about whether he can ultimately handle 300 carries in a season are legitimate. It's always up to individual owners in terms of how much stock they choose to put in the "injury-prone" label, but I don't think it can be completely dismissed. There's also the fact that he's poor in pass protection and he's fumbled 10 times in 380 career carries. Don't get me wrong -- there's a ton to like about Mathews. He's a dynamic player in a great situation and the fact that the Chargers lost Tolbert and haven't made it a priority to bring in another RB seems to indicate that they plan to ride Mathews heavily, for better or worse. You can ultimately poke holes in any player, so maybe the injury history, the fumbling, and the pass protection issues aren't ultimately a huge deal, but I do think they're worth looking at.

 

[Touchdown There]

Ryan Mathews is reminding me a lot of the way Shaun Alexander used to be discussed in his prime. Alexander put up enormous numbers yet a lot of pundits would decry his ability to repeat for nebulous reasons, largely centered on a perception that he somehow avoided contact at times. Yet, Alexander was a fantasy dynamo for half a decade like clockwork. Cue Ryan Mathews. The only reason I hear people talk down Mathews is for those same nebulous reasons, implying that he's not "tough" or doesn't give it his all. But I see a guy that once he got the ball last year became a true fantasy star, and enters 2012 in his prime and the clear focal point of that offense. In an era where you can't come up with a list of 10 RBs that have even a shot at 300 carries, Mathews is to me among the most attractive options out there.

The reasons are not nebulous -- his injury history is fairly extensive dating back to college and I think the doubts about whether he can ultimately handle 300 carries in a season are legitimate. It's always up to individual owners in terms of how much stock they choose to put in the "injury-prone" label, but I don't think it can be completely dismissed. There's also the fact that he's poor in pass protection and he's fumbled 10 times in 380 career carries. Don't get me wrong -- there's a ton to like about Mathews. He's a dynamic player in a great situation and the fact that the Chargers lost Tolbert and haven't made it a priority to bring in another RB seems to indicate that they plan to ride Mathews heavily, for better or worse. You can ultimately poke holes in any player, so maybe the injury history, the fumbling, and the pass protection issues aren't ultimately a huge deal, but I do think they're worth looking at.

Not really. No concussion history and no major ACL/knee/shoulder issues in the past. He has only had minor stuff that all RBs go through.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

1100 rushing, 300 receiving. 9 TD's. Respectable but meh.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Ryan Mathews is reminding me a lot of the way Shaun Alexander used to be discussed in his prime. Alexander put up enormous numbers yet a lot of pundits would decry his ability to repeat for nebulous reasons, largely centered on a perception that he somehow avoided contact at times. Yet, Alexander was a fantasy dynamo for half a decade like clockwork. Cue Ryan Mathews. The only reason I hear people talk down Mathews is for those same nebulous reasons, implying that he's not "tough" or doesn't give it his all. But I see a guy that once he got the ball last year became a true fantasy star, and enters 2012 in his prime and the clear focal point of that offense. In an era where you can't come up with a list of 10 RBs that have even a shot at 300 carries, Mathews is to me among the most attractive options out there.

The reasons are not nebulous -- his injury history is fairly extensive dating back to college and I think the doubts about whether he can ultimately handle 300 carries in a season are legitimate. It's always up to individual owners in terms of how much stock they choose to put in the "injury-prone" label, but I don't think it can be completely dismissed. There's also the fact that he's poor in pass protection and he's fumbled 10 times in 380 career carries. Don't get me wrong -- there's a ton to like about Mathews. He's a dynamic player in a great situation and the fact that the Chargers lost Tolbert and haven't made it a priority to bring in another RB seems to indicate that they plan to ride Mathews heavily, for better or worse. You can ultimately poke holes in any player, so maybe the injury history, the fumbling, and the pass protection issues aren't ultimately a huge deal, but I do think they're worth looking at.

Not really. No concussion history and no major ACL/knee/shoulder issues in the past. He has only had minor stuff that all RBs go through.

To me he just needs to toughen up a bit. Play through the minor ankle twist and hammy tweak or what have you.Sky is the limit, back in January when we did WSL on this board I got him in mid round2.

his value is through the roof now, going as high as 1.08. Too expensive there, however I did take him at 1.12 in a recent dynasty start up.

I got a feeling by August he will be the RB4/5 off the board and he might not live up to those stats. But there are not many bellcows left.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

This will be Mathews first full off season. His rookie year he missed time with contract negotiations, and his working out improperly during the lockout has been discussed time and time again. The past two years he's matured, and I just read a column with him saying he now knows what he needs to do to be the player the Chargers want him to be.

He seems focused and driven to be one of the truly elite backs in the league.

What I think gets lost last year is how well he played with everything around him falling apart. Rivers was turning the ball over left and right, the line was in shambles, and Mathews put on a show.

250 carries, 1275 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD's

65 receptions, 590 receiving yards, 4 receiving TD's

I'm as high as anyone when it comes to Mathews, to the point where I'd consider him as the RB3. I would absolutely take him as the RB4, ahead of MJD.

 

[meyerj31]

Ryan Mathews is reminding me a lot of the way Shaun Alexander used to be discussed in his prime. Alexander put up enormous numbers yet a lot of pundits would decry his ability to repeat for nebulous reasons, largely centered on a perception that he somehow avoided contact at times. Yet, Alexander was a fantasy dynamo for half a decade like clockwork. Cue Ryan Mathews. The only reason I hear people talk down Mathews is for those same nebulous reasons, implying that he's not "tough" or doesn't give it his all. But I see a guy that once he got the ball last year became a true fantasy star, and enters 2012 in his prime and the clear focal point of that offense. In an era where you can't come up with a list of 10 RBs that have even a shot at 300 carries, Mathews is to me among the most attractive options out there.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Matthews' situation reminds me of Ray Rice's from last year. Very talented guy who split time with a goal line back. Once the goal line back vacates then the TD opportunities will be there in a big way. SD's offense is still pretty good, and if Matthews is getting the carries inside the 5 yard line I think he could see 13+ TDs in a do-everything role this year.

1300 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, 14 TDs.

 

[fightingillini]

My opinion on Mathews is simple. If he can stay healthy, he is an elite RB. In the category with Foster, Rice, McCoy, and MJD. Can do it all. Good speed, great vision, excellent receiver. Now without Tolbert and VJax in the mix, I suspect SD is going to go back to a more balanced offense....the one when SD had LT. IMO, the offense will go through Mathews more this year. I wouldn't hesitate to take him at #5-6 overall in a PPR league unless it's a 6 pt per TD pass league and Rodgers was available.

290 car, 1325 yds, 11 TD

55 rec, 450 yds, 3 TD

 

[TheDirtyWord]

While Matthews was one of the better pass catching RB's in the NFL in 2011, his counterpart Mike Tolbert, it could be argued was better. For 2012, that's neither here no there, but between the two of them...they accumulated 138 targets. The previous year, SD had Sproles as well. Between those 3, they had 130 targets. For the last two years, 1 out of every four targets have gone to primary RB's in SD passing game. The big outlier is Tolbert's increase in targets from 29 to 79 between 2010 & 2011. So it's quite possible Matthews won't be the primary beneficiary of Tolbert's (and Sproles) absense. But given his role in the offense, 80-85 targets seems like a reasonable projection and if he can do that...400 receiving yards seems like a floor for him.

The question will be if Matthews will approach 300 carries. Leron McClain was brought in to offset the loss of Tolbert. But he hasn't had a big workload in terms of carries since 2008 - with that said, he looks like a prototypical short yardage/goal line player. Jacob Hester hasn't amounted to much in his 4 NFL seasons (sporting a 3.4 YPC). Everyone else on the roster RB wise appears to be from hodgepodgeville. The drawback is that SD is a team that pretty much tops out at 450 rushes. And there could be a commitment to get Matthews in open space via the passing game versus milage producing runs through the LOS. I think the ceiling for him even with Tolbert gone is going to be 260 carries. Fact is, this is the first time in ages that the Chargers are sporting lackluster depth at RB. I think because of that, they'll be cognizant to not overwork a player whose durability/toughness is still a question mark. He could prove that wrong by Game 4, but I suspect McClain/Hester will carve out roles that were smaller than what Turner/Sproles/Tobert had done before them to ease Matthews workload. However, Matthews has clear sailing toward legitimate RB1 status, however, I could see him being drafted in a similar place with such numbers in 2013 because his projections seem to have already been built in to his draft value.

Prediction: 257 rushes, 1189 rushing yards, 8 TD's; 63 receptions 463 receiving yards, 2 TD's.

 

[chook]

While Matthews was one of the better pass catching RB's in the NFL in 2011, his counterpart Mike Tolbert, it could be argued was better. For 2012, that's neither here no there, but between the two of them...they accumulated 138 targets. The previous year, SD had Sproles as well. Between those 3, they had 130 targets. For the last two years, 1 out of every four targets have gone to primary RB's in SD passing game. The big outlier is Tolbert's increase in targets from 29 to 79 between 2010 & 2011. So it's quite possible Matthews won't be the primary beneficiary of Tolbert's (and Sproles) absense. But given his role in the offense, 80-85 targets seems like a reasonable projection and if he can do that...400 receiving yards seems like a floor for him.

The question will be if Matthews will approach 300 carries. Leron McClain was brought in to offset the loss of Tolbert. But he hasn't had a big workload in terms of carries since 2008 - with that said, he looks like a prototypical short yardage/goal line player. Jacob Hester hasn't amounted to much in his 4 NFL seasons (sporting a 3.4 YPC). Everyone else on the roster RB wise appears to be from hodgepodgeville. The drawback is that SD is a team that pretty much tops out at 450 rushes. And there could be a commitment to get Matthews in open space via the passing game versus milage producing runs through the LOS. I think the ceiling for him even with Tolbert gone is going to be 260 carries. Fact is, this is the first time in ages that the Chargers are sporting lackluster depth at RB. I think because of that, they'll be cognizant to not overwork a player whose durability/toughness is still a question mark. He could prove that wrong by Game 4, but I suspect McClain/Hester will carve out roles that were smaller than what Turner/Sproles/Tobert had done before them to ease Matthews workload. However, Matthews has clear sailing toward legitimate RB1 status, however, I could see him being drafted in a similar place with such numbers in 2013 because his projections seem to have already been built in to his draft value.

Prediction: 257 rushes, 1189 rushing yards, 8 TD's; 63 receptions 463 receiving yards, 2 TD's.

Wow. I'd go as far to say he will go close to matching that by the time the bye comes around.Put me down for 280 rushes, 1400 yards, 17 TD's; 65 rec, 600 yards, 3 TD's.

I agree that McClain's signing could seem like Tolbert v2.0. But with a full, non-rookie offseason for the first time, Mathews will charge out of the gate and show everyone that he's the real deal. Very excited about his prospects.

 

[Protocols of Stringer Bell]

Given the projections around here, there's almost no way I'm going to end up with this guy in any league. There's something that just strikes me as too easy about the situation that isn't quite backed up by what I've seen on the field from the guy. In no way are their styles similar, but rather than Shaun Alexander, I'm reminded of how obvious the ascension of Marion Barber seemed after Julius Jones was removed from the situation. It just never quite made that leap. I know Mathews has better yardage, but I just see too much Gates/McClain in short yardage. Good season, something like 250 carries for 1100 yards and 6 tds, another 40 catches for 350 yards and a score, kind of guy that makes a dream number 2 rb but not a dream #1, which is where he seems to be drafted now

 

[Jercules]

While Matthews was one of the better pass catching RB's in the NFL in 2011, his counterpart Mike Tolbert, it could be argued was better. For 2012, that's neither here no there, but between the two of them...they accumulated 138 targets. The previous year, SD had Sproles as well. Between those 3, they had 130 targets. For the last two years, 1 out of every four targets have gone to primary RB's in SD passing game. The big outlier is Tolbert's increase in targets from 29 to 79 between 2010 & 2011. So it's quite possible Matthews won't be the primary beneficiary of Tolbert's (and Sproles) absense. But given his role in the offense, 80-85 targets seems like a reasonable projection and if he can do that...400 receiving yards seems like a floor for him.

The question will be if Matthews will approach 300 carries. Leron McClain was brought in to offset the loss of Tolbert. But he hasn't had a big workload in terms of carries since 2008 - with that said, he looks like a prototypical short yardage/goal line player. Jacob Hester hasn't amounted to much in his 4 NFL seasons (sporting a 3.4 YPC). Everyone else on the roster RB wise appears to be from hodgepodgeville. The drawback is that SD is a team that pretty much tops out at 450 rushes. And there could be a commitment to get Matthews in open space via the passing game versus milage producing runs through the LOS. I think the ceiling for him even with Tolbert gone is going to be 260 carries. Fact is, this is the first time in ages that the Chargers are sporting lackluster depth at RB. I think because of that, they'll be cognizant to not overwork a player whose durability/toughness is still a question mark. He could prove that wrong by Game 4, but I suspect McClain/Hester will carve out roles that were smaller than what Turner/Sproles/Tobert had done before them to ease Matthews workload. However, Matthews has clear sailing toward legitimate RB1 status, however, I could see him being drafted in a similar place with such numbers in 2013 because his projections seem to have already been built in to his draft value.

Prediction: 257 rushes, 1189 rushing yards, 8 TD's; 63 receptions 463 receiving yards, 2 TD's.

Thank God someone better informed than me voiced their opinion. Of course, the true question is: Does he stay healthy? And no one on the planet can answer that.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Put me down for 280 rushes, 1400 yards, 17 TD's; 65 rec, 600 yards, 3 TD's.

Are you his brother?

 

[MAC_32]

well, the knock is health, and with tolbert gone, it will be the RM show..., no vjax, no tolbert will lead to even more touches. I like him for 275 carries, 1350 yards, 50 catches 500 yards, 15 all purpose tds. IF hes on the field.. a big iffffff

The knock is health for EVERY back entering 2012, save for maybe LeSean McCoy. That's one of the frustrating things about this year's RB rankings and projections, can you remember a time when there were so few RBs that you could presume a full workload and weren't coming off missed time for minor or major injuries?

The difference between those RB's and Matthews is dating back to college Mathews has always been nicked up. Missing games, portions of games, and practice for injuries that at least to my knowledge have often been deemed minor. I'm not willing to give him the Beanie Wells treatment just yet, but if he does it again this year he may earn it.I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

from a the OL perspective, the Chargers line isn't good. I have them at 26th in the league. their lineup looks to be Gaither - Green - Hardwick - Vazquez - Clary. Hardwick was awesome... in 2006. Gaither can be very good but he also can be worthless (not consistent). the other players would probably be backups on other squads. Clary is especially bad. Losing Kris Dielman hurts the unit and they made no moves in the draft or free agency to improve. If Mathews has 17 TD it will be a Barry Sanders-like effort, cause he's not getting help from this line.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

He was the #5 scoring RB in most PPR leagues last year. :Shrugs: , He was #7 RB in FBG standard scoring. I can see CJ2k, but Richardson? not in re-draft, no way

 

[MAC_32]

I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

He was the #5 scoring RB in most PPR leagues last year. :Shrugs: , He was #7 RB in FBG standard scoring. I can see CJ2k, but Richardson? not in re-draft, no way

I think Richardson is a better player and I trust him to stay healthy, Mathews being in the better offense just isn't enough for me to take him first.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

He was the #5 scoring RB in most PPR leagues last year. :Shrugs: , He was #7 RB in FBG standard scoring. I can see CJ2k, but Richardson? not in re-draft, no way

I think Richardson is a better player and I trust him to stay healthy, Mathews being in the better offense just isn't enough for me to take him first.

So ADP and everything else be damned you going to take TRichardson in the first round just to have him in re-draft? Friendly wager on who has more FFL points in 2012? Trich v mathews? regardless of scorign system?

 

[doowain]

well, the knock is health, and with tolbert gone, it will be the RM show..., no vjax, no tolbert will lead to even more touches. I like him for 275 carries, 1350 yards, 50 catches 500 yards, 15 all purpose tds. IF hes on the field.. a big iffffff

The knock is health for EVERY back entering 2012, save for maybe LeSean McCoy. That's one of the frustrating things about this year's RB rankings and projections, can you remember a time when there were so few RBs that you could presume a full workload and weren't coming off missed time for minor or major injuries?

The difference between those RB's and Matthews is dating back to college Mathews has always been nicked up. Missing games, portions of games, and practice for injuries that at least to my knowledge have often been deemed minor. I'm not willing to give him the Beanie Wells treatment just yet, but if he does it again this year he may earn it.I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

Show you? Didn't he do that last year? Man, everyone is really missing how efficient Mathews was last year on 272 touches. According to Football Outsiders, he was the #5 RB in DYAR (rushing), or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, with 197 yards. As for receptions, he ranked 3rd in DYAR behind only Sproles and Rice.

Football Outsiders RB 2011

He also averaged 5.7 yards per touch last year, which was tops among all running backs with 200+ touches.

The only knock on his stats was the low number of TDs. He was routinely pulled inside the 5 or 10 yard line. With Tolbert gone, those TDs should go up.

 

[MAC_32]

I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

He was the #5 scoring RB in most PPR leagues last year. :Shrugs: , He was #7 RB in FBG standard scoring. I can see CJ2k, but Richardson? not in re-draft, no way

I think Richardson is a better player and I trust him to stay healthy, Mathews being in the better offense just isn't enough for me to take him first.

So ADP and everything else be damned you going to take TRichardson in the first round just to have him in re-draft? Friendly wager on who has more FFL points in 2012? Trich v mathews? regardless of scorign system?

Richardson may be as high as #3 or as low as #7 on my RB board come August - depends on Adrian's knee, Forte and Rice's contract, and whether I waffle or not on him vs. Chris Johnson. Whether I take him in the top 10 depends on the league, I play in a variety of styles with different people so I may go QB or Calvin before him some places if given the option.

 

[MAC_32]

Show you? Didn't he do that last year?

He did not show me he can be healthy enough to be a productive 325-350 touch back, I know he can be a productive 250-275 touch back but that's not what I expect out of my 1st round RB. 2nd round? Hell yea, but not 1st.

 

[doowain]

Show you? Didn't he do that last year?

He did not show me he can be healthy enough to be a productive 325-350 touch back, I know he can be a productive 250-275 touch back but that's not what I expect out of my 1st round RB. 2nd round? Hell yea, but not 1st.

Now you qualify your "show me you can do it" statement. It has to do with whether he can handle the load, not what he'll do with it. Slight back-peddle.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

He was the #5 scoring RB in most PPR leagues last year. :Shrugs: , He was #7 RB in FBG standard scoring. I can see CJ2k, but Richardson? not in re-draft, no way

I don't figure it to be a popular pick, but I'm not drafing for what has happened in the past. GL

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

He was the #5 scoring RB in most PPR leagues last year. :Shrugs: , He was #7 RB in FBG standard scoring. I can see CJ2k, but Richardson? not in re-draft, no way

I don't figure it to be a popular pick, but I'm not drafing for what has happened in the past. GL

exactly. mathews will have an even better season this year. No toblert means more touches.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I think there are enough people out there that see a top 5 back to take him in round 1, so he probably won't be on my teams. personally, I'll take Richardson and Chris Johnson before Mathews. Upside is absolutely there, could even be the #1 RB but...show me you can do it. Norv will give him the goal line if he shows he can do it but to date he hasn't so Norv hasn't given it to him and has taken other snaps away from him for the same reason. If his value slips for whatever reason and he's there in round 2 I'm all about him but round 1 I see better alternatives.

He was the #5 scoring RB in most PPR leagues last year. :Shrugs: , He was #7 RB in FBG standard scoring. I can see CJ2k, but Richardson? not in re-draft, no way

I don't figure it to be a popular pick, but I'm not drafing for what has happened in the past. GL

exactly. mathews will have an even better season this year. No toblert means more touches.

In my opinion Tolbert kept him fresh which is why we saw the 4.9 yards per carry. I don't think more touches will necessarily be all that good.Mathews is a very good RB. He's exciting because he can give you the big play. I just don't believe he's an everydown, give me the ball kind of RB. I see a ton of skill but less may be more with him.

In Richardson I see a guy that wants the ball every down. Feed it to him 20-25 times per game.

ETA: Watching highlights of both guys I see 2 totally different RB's. Mathews busts his runs outside as much as possible and makes plays with his speed. Richardson more willingly runs between the tackles and relies more on his vision. JMHO

 

[Hoosier16]

400 carries, 1600 yards, and 16 TDs rushing and 114 receptions, 1000 yards, and 5 TDs receiving. That is the average over the last 4 years of what the SD RBs produce. The numbers are even higher over the last 2 years during the Mathews era.

So, if you're going to project Mathews for 1400-1600 total yards and 8-10 TDs, you have to explain where the other 1000-1200 yards and 11-13 TDs are going.

275 carries, 1250 yards, 10 TDs rushing and 60 receptions, 550 yards, and 2 TDs receiving. That leaves 800 yards and 9 TDs for everyone else.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

Show you? Didn't he do that last year?

He did not show me he can be healthy enough to be a productive 325-350 touch back, I know he can be a productive 250-275 touch back but that's not what I expect out of my 1st round RB. 2nd round? Hell yea, but not 1st.

How many first round runningbacks are there then, if 325-350 touches is mandatory?

 

[MAC_32]

Show you? Didn't he do that last year?

He did not show me he can be healthy enough to be a productive 325-350 touch back, I know he can be a productive 250-275 touch back but that's not what I expect out of my 1st round RB. 2nd round? Hell yea, but not 1st.

How many first round runningbacks are there then, if 325-350 touches is mandatory?

By my count, 8 - Foster, McCoy, Rice, Forte, AD, Rich, MJD, and Chris Johnson. I think I would take Mathews before MJD though, even if he signs his contract, those knees scare the crap out of me.

 

[Da Guru]

I have had Matthews the last two seasons and watched many of his games. Make no mistake the talent is there..he can do it all. What concerns me is that I have never seen a RB take "himself" out of the game as many times as Matthews did last season. It seemed like after every good hit he took he would get up and wave at the sidelines. Then Tolbert would come in and do well..and stay in. Sometimes it looked like he did not want to be in there.

 

[Touchdown There]

I have had Matthews the last two seasons and watched many of his games. Make no mistake the talent is there..he can do it all. What concerns me is that I have never seen a RB take "himself" out of the game as many times as Matthews did last season. It seemed like after every good hit he took he would get up and wave at the sidelines. Then Tolbert would come in and do well..and stay in. Sometimes it looked like he did not want to be in there.

I saw a few of the plays you are talking about. One that I can remember Mathews went over the top to get a first down and landed hard. Normally your fall is broken by landing on other players, but he pretty much thumped flat on the ground. He laid there for a few seconds, his teammates helped him up and then Mathews waved to the sidelines for Tolbert.These guys are not playing shuffleboard. I have been surprised at Mathews recent ADP. I think he is more of an early second rounder, rather than late first. The sticking point for him seems to be around Chris Johnson. I would still rather have CJ, even as a big Mathews fan.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I have had Matthews the last two seasons and watched many of his games. Make no mistake the talent is there..he can do it all. What concerns me is that I have never seen a RB take "himself" out of the game as many times as Matthews did last season. It seemed like after every good hit he took he would get up and wave at the sidelines. Then Tolbert would come in and do well..and stay in. Sometimes it looked like he did not want to be in there.

I saw a few of the plays you are talking about. One that I can remember Mathews went over the top to get a first down and landed hard. Normally your fall is broken by landing on other players, but he pretty much thumped flat on the ground. He laid there for a few seconds, his teammates helped him up and then Mathews waved to the sidelines for Tolbert.These guys are not playing shuffleboard. I have been surprised at Mathews recent ADP. I think he is more of an early second rounder, rather than late first. The sticking point for him seems to be around Chris Johnson. I would still rather have CJ, even as a big Mathews fan.

No, this isn't shuffleboard. Sometimes you're going to fall on the ground, and it's going to hurt. It happens to a lot of guys every game. Tolbert took plenty of hits and falls as well, but I didn't witness the helmet tap nearly as much as Mathews.Agreed on CJ. It seems like Mathews is being hyped a lot....too much for me. CJ has the talent and more speed than Mathews, and I like CJ's OL better personally. I like Mathews too but it looks like he's climbing too high in the rankings to me.

 

[TS Garp]

I have had Matthews the last two seasons and watched many of his games. Make no mistake the talent is there..he can do it all. What concerns me is that I have never seen a RB take "himself" out of the game as many times as Matthews did last season. It seemed like after every good hit he took he would get up and wave at the sidelines. Then Tolbert would come in and do well..and stay in. Sometimes it looked like he did not want to be in there.

This is what I was referring to earlier in the thread when I said that he has an extensive injury history -- I should have explained better. He's often missing practices, missing games, or leaving games with injuries that other guys would likely play through. I'm a Chargers fan, so I want Mathews to have a huge season and I think he can. The upside is undeniable -- his ceiling is as high as anyone this year. But I worry about his ability to withstand a large increase in touches because he's just never shown the ability to stay on the field consistently. Does he really want to be a bell-cow RB? Time will tell. I also don't think the Chargers will trust him around the goal line until he proves that he can hold on to the ball. 10 fumbles in 26 games/452 touches is concerning.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Some positive news for any who feel that Matheews is geared for a successful season.

Sproles and Tolbert gone.

He's refining certain aspects of his game.

He had an injury last year that effected him and he's healed now.

Another big difference is last year he slacked off during the lockout but this year he's in top shape.

Go to the link for the full article, much snipped, here are the highlights.

Chargers prepping big role for Ryan Mathews

Bolts' Mathews having one of those offseasons

Running back working to take game to next level

... Mathews is having one of those offseasons, the kind that build a buzz about a young player coming into his own, about the strong season that, in a few months’ time, could follow.

... The past two seasons, the Chargers’ backfield has been by committee, split between him and Mike Tolbert to keep a rotation that involved both players’ strengths. Tolbert was featured during the team’s two-minute drill and other passing situations. He also saw most of the work near the goal line.

With Tolbert’s free-agency departure to Carolina, Mathews will assume most of that work. And it’s time, Chargers coaches say.

... “I personally think he’s ready to take that next step,” said Turner, who added he thinks Mathews has what it takes to someday lead the league in rushing. “That means, to me, the production goes way up, and he’s more of the guy that is on the field most of the time. I think he’s grown a lot in terms of understanding his responsibility when the ball is in his hand.”

A good base for this offseason was built last year when Mathews rushed 222 times for 1,091 yards and six touchdowns, also totaling 50 catches for 455 yards. He averaged 5.7 yards per touch, second most in the league among players with at least 210 touches.

... It’s getting to that point. I think he’s going to be fine. He’s well on his way from what he’s doing offseason-wise to have a great year. ... He’s in the best shape I’ve seen since he’s been here.”

That, as many remember, couldn’t have been said last year.

Mathews reported to Chargers training camp in July after the lockout and took a conditioning test with the rest of his teammate. He did not complete it.

The enduring image is of Mathews standing with his head down and chest heaving, trying to catch his breath, but what Mathews remembers more vividly are his teammates’ faces once he lifted his head.

... During the season’s first five games, Mathews averaged 134.8 yards from scrimmage, third-most in the NFL over that span. In the sixth game, his thumb broke when it wrenched inside a Jets defender’s face mask.

... As for those individual goals, Mathews is keeping them quiet.

He’s improving this offseason, and he’ll leave it at that.

“You guys are going to see,” Mathews said with a smile. “You guys are really going to see.”

 

[King of the Jungle]

The sleeping giant will wake this season....I am buying.

 

[lbouchard]

Buy before he joins the top tier

 

[ImTheScientist]

Every year there seems to be one or two RBs that get hyped based on limited sample sizes and then falter. This is that guy this year. He hasn't played a full season and he has yet to show he can stand up to that type of punishment.....this has been his M.O. since college.

I'll let someone else buy the hype and load up on two guys for the price of Mathews in my auction. Nice times out of ten people take chances on guys just like this and it backfires. If his price was about half what he is going for now I would take a chance, but the risk of a first round pick or what he is going for in auctions is not worth the reward when there are similar proven commodities at that same price.

NO THANKS.

 

[mikel2014]

Every year there seems to be one or two RBs that get hyped based on limited sample sizes and then falter. This is that guy this year. He hasn't played a full season and he has yet to show he can stand up to that type of punishment.....this has been his M.O. since college. I'll let someone else buy the hype and load up on two guys for the price of Mathews in my auction. Nice times out of ten people take chances on guys just like this and it backfires. If his price was about half what he is going for now I would take a chance, but the risk of a first round pick or what he is going for in auctions is not worth the reward when there are similar proven commodities at that same price.NO THANKS.

Agreed, I prefer a guy who has proven himself with a finish as a top 10 RB, 270+ touches, over 1000 yards rushing, and 1500 total yards. ...Fortunately Mathews has done all of that. Injuries have definitely played a part over his career, but for the numbers he's produced and the immense upside going forward he's worth at least a 2nd round pick.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

Show you? Didn't he do that last year?

He did not show me he can be healthy enough to be a productive 325-350 touch back, I know he can be a productive 250-275 touch back but that's not what I expect out of my 1st round RB. 2nd round? Hell yea, but not 1st.

How many first round runningbacks are there then, if 325-350 touches is mandatory?

By my count, 8 - Foster, McCoy, Rice, Forte, AD, Rich, MJD, and Chris Johnson. I think I would take Mathews before MJD though, even if he signs his contract, those knees scare the crap out of me.

Chicago has said they wouldn't use Forte they way they have, and have voiced concern over balky knees. They also have Mike Bush to come in and steal some of the redzone work.Peterson is coming off a shredded knee.Mathews ran for 50 more yards on 40 less attempts than Johnson. 40 more receiving yards on seven less receptions. I don't expect Johnson's attempts to sky rocket, where as Mathews won't have Tolbert spelling Mathews for the third down work. I understand the hype surrounding Trent Richardson, but the odds are against him putting an Adrian Peterson type rookie year together. The only thing that can prevent Mathews from being a top 5 back is health. If everything goes well, I feel extremely confident that he'll outscore almost everyone at the position. Heck, I won't be surprised if he finishes at the top of that list.

 

[Tau837]

Let's look at RB usage under Norv Turner in San Diego:

2007:

San Diego RBs had 440/1987/18 (4.5 ypc) rushing and 83/550/4 (6.6 ypr) receiving on 120 targets.

LT was the workhorse, with 315/1474/15 rushing and 60/475/3 receiving on 86 targets.

2008:

San Diego RBs had 383/1564/13 (4.1 ypc) rushing and 105/1021/8 (9.7 ypr) receiving on 138 targets.

LT was still the workhorse, but faded significantly, with 292/1110/11 rushing and 52/426/1 receiving on 77 targets.

Sproles emerged as a threat in the passing game, with 29/342/5 (11.8 ypr) receiving on just 34 targets.

This was the season the passing game really exploded.

2009:

San Diego RBs had 385/1360/16 (3.5 ypc) rushing and 97/932/7 (9.6 ypr) receiving on 127 targets.

LT hit bottom and took the San Diego rushing game with him. He had just 223/730/12 (3.3 ypc) rushing and 20/154/0 receiving on 30 targets in 14 games.

Sproles continued to be strong in the passing game, with 45/497/4 (11.0 ypr) receiving on 57 targets.

2010:

San Diego RBs had 416/1743/18 (4.2 ypc) rushing and 127/998/3 (7.9 ypr) receiving on 154 targets.

LT was gone, Mathews was in and out of the lineup as a rookie, and Tolbert emerged.

Sproles continued to be the primary RB target in the passing game, but Tolbert and Mathews both showed potential there.

2011:

San Diego RBs had 400/1775/15 (4.4 ypc) and 123/977/3 (7.9 ypr) receiving on 165 targets.

Mathews broke out despite missing 2 games, with 222/1091/6 (4.9 ypr) rushing and 50/455/0 (9.1 ypr) receiving on 59 targets. Stud performance.

Sproles was gone, yet the RB targets were higher than ever. Tolbert had 79 targets in addition to Mathews' 59 targets.

Mathews showed last season that he is capable of top level RB play as both a rusher and receiver. The last time San Diego had a proven stud RB who was not in obvious decline was 2007. Despite the fact that they had both Michael Turner and Sproles on the bench, the Chargers gave Tomlinson 72% of the RB rushing attempts and 72% of the RB targets. In 2008, Michael Turner was gone and, even with LT fading, the Chargers gave him 76% of the RB rushing attempts.

I think those numbers are a reasonable starting point for Mathews this season, given that the Chargers have no RBs as talented as Michael Turner or Sproles or even Tolbert on their bench this season.

Given the lack of RB depth, I don't see the Chargers increasing last season's RB rushing attempts much, if at all, so I'll stick with 400 RB rushing attempts as a projection. This is right in line with their average under Turner, which is 405 per season. It's hard to see the RB targets staying as high as last season. I think 140, which is a 15% drop from last season, is a reasonable projection.

I think it's fair to assume Mathews will get 75% of the rushing attempts and 70% of the RB targets. That is 300 rushing attempts and 105 targets for Mathews.

Mathews averaged 4.3 ypc as a rookie and 4.9 ypc last season; his career average is 4.7 ypc. However, Mathews and Tolbert split short yardage carries last season (17 carries for Mathews with 2 yards or fewer to go, 22 carries for Tolbert); Mathews should get most or all of these carries this year, which should reduce his ypc a bit. Combine that with an expected increase in usage, and I think it's reasonable to project 4.5 ypc.

In his career, Mathews has caught 72 of 85 targets (85%), which is quite impressive. Last year, he caught 50 of 59 targets, again right at 85%. I think this might go down a bit given a bit more attention from the defense and perhaps due to increased usage, so I'll estimate 75%, which I think is pretty conservative.

Mathews averaged 6.6 ypr as a rookie and 9.1 ypr last season; his career average is 8.3 ypr. In this case, I think last year is more indicative of his ability as a receiver, improvement in his comfort level with and understanding of the passing game, and the team finding better ways to utilize his talent. That said, I think using his career average is reasonably conservative.

As for rushing TDs, Mathews has 13 rushing TDs on 379 rushing attempts, which is 1 TD every 29 carries. On 300 rushing attempts, that projects to 10 rushing TDs.

However, consider rushing attempts near the goal line. Over the past 2 seasons, Mathews only had 19 rushing attempts at the opponent's 10 yard line and closer, compared to 51 rushing attempts for Tolbert. Mathews had 6 rushing TDs on those 19 carries; Tolbert had 18 rushing TDs on his 51 carries. Mathews will be getting most or all of these carries this year, meaning another 20+ carries near the goal line. He is in line to double his TDs in the red zone.

Meanwhile, only McCoy has had more rushing TDs from outside the opponent's 10 yard line over the past 2 seasons than Mathews. So I am seeing a big uptick in rushing TDs.

San Diego has had no fewer than 3 RB receiving TDs per season under Turner, and it seems reasonable to project Mathews to get one.

So, put it all together, and here is my projection: 300/1350/14 (4.5 ypc) rushing and 79/656/1 (8.3 ypr) receiving.

Obviously, this assumes he plays 16 games. I realize many don't think he can do that, but I think he will show an ability to stay on the field this year through the minor injuries, and I never attempt to project major injuries, since I believe them to be unpredictable.

I also realize I am projecting a huge season, but that's what I expect.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Every year there seems to be one or two RBs that get hyped based on limited sample sizes and then falter. This is that guy this year. He hasn't played a full season and he has yet to show he can stand up to that type of punishment.....this has been his M.O. since college. I'll let someone else buy the hype and load up on two guys for the price of Mathews in my auction. Nice times out of ten people take chances on guys just like this and it backfires. If his price was about half what he is going for now I would take a chance, but the risk of a first round pick or what he is going for in auctions is not worth the reward when there are similar proven commodities at that same price.NO THANKS.

Agreed, I prefer a guy who has proven himself with a finish as a top 10 RB, 270+ touches, over 1000 yards rushing, and 1500 total yards. ...Fortunately Mathews has done all of that. Injuries have definitely played a part over his career, but for the numbers he's produced and the immense upside going forward he's worth at least a 2nd round pick.

So last year you were all over peyton hillis? How many times in the last 5 years has mathews played a full season?He is worth a second round pick in a 12 team league ....but I don't think most here are talking about that.