S. Jackson or L. Johnson? (1 Viewer)

[Pitch12]

Who do you think is the No. 2 pick. Each have their own positives, but I am curious as to your opinion

 

[kurtrudder]

Personally, I'd go with SJax. Both are great running backs but it's Jackson's situation that I like more than LJ.

In essentially 1 and a half seasons, Larry Johnson has logged 750 carries including 416 last season. Historically there are not too many running backs who can put back to back 400 carry seasons together. All the talk coming from Herm Edwards is they want to get him even more involved in the passing game.

It's the Chiefs outlook for 2007 which scares me especially if they go with Croyle at QB. If that's the case they will rely heavily on LJ and whilst that sounds like fantasy football gold, I wouldn't take the risk on him holding up under that type of workload again.

 

[TheWick]

I'd take Jackson for the following reasons

1 = I play in a PPR league

2 = STL much better offense than KC

3 = less miles on him

4 = I'm a Rams fan

 

[Banger]

I'd take Jackson for the following reasons1 = I play in a PPR league2 = STL much better offense than KC3 = less miles on him4 = I'm a Rams fan

5= SJax looks to have a MUCH easier schedule

 

[ShadowMaster]

SJax

Stronger Team, stronger O, better coach, better schedule

Actually, I'd like to hear your arguments FOR LJ since you think both have pros as the #2

 

[TheWick]

SJaxStronger Team, stronger O, better coach, better scheduleActually, I'd like to hear your arguments FOR LJ since you think both have pros as the #2

I'd say in a TD heavy league LJ may be the pick. The rams will spread the ball around so much in the red zone, LJ will probably have 3 or 4 more TDS than Sjax and probably 100-300 more Rushing yards.

 

[Blackjacks]

S-Jax here and in my opinon it isn't even close.

 

[TheGreatest]

I'd take Jackson for the following reasons1 = I play in a PPR league2 = STL much better offense than KC3 = less miles on him4 = I'm a Rams fan

5= SJax looks to have a MUCH easier schedule

6 = Rams have a QB

 

[SSOG]

S-Jax here and in my opinon it isn't even close.

Agreed. LJ isn't even the #3 player on my board.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

SJaxStronger Team, stronger O, better coach, better scheduleActually, I'd like to hear your arguments FOR LJ since you think both have pros as the #2

I'd say in a TD heavy league LJ may be the pick. The rams will spread the ball around so much in the red zone, LJ will probably have 3 or 4 more TDS than Sjax and probably 100-300 more Rushing yards.

TD heavy w/o ppr, I would take LJ first.Thankfully I am only doing ppr leagues this year, so SJ is the pick. If I do get the #1, the thought of taking him over LT2 would cross my mind.

 

[Fantasy Warrior]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby. Some may argue LT is a "special" back and "exception" to the general rule. My argument is LJ is awfully "special" and "exceptional" is his own right. LJ averages 1 touchdown for every 19 times he touches the ball. LT = 1 TD for every 22 touches, while SJ = 1 in every 30. While on the topic of touches, LJ averages more yards per touch than S. Jackson and LT.

I know LT is known as a TD and yardage machine. LT averages 127 yards/game and 1.2 TD's/game. In LT's 6 year career he has started every game he has played in, and has only missed 1 game. Now, LJ ONLY averages 1.1 TD/game (.1 less than LT) and 109 yds/game. LJ however, averages far fewer touches per game than Ladanian (LJ = 21 LT =26), due to only starting 3 games in 2003 and 6 games in 2004. LJ has started only 28 games in his regular season career, but has played in 45 games. S.Jackson averages almost .7 touchdowns per game and 101 yds/game. Again, his numbers are a little lower due to starting only 34 games over his career, while his numbers are based on playing in 45 games.

I guess I'll also hear from the board the argument about the QB and O-Line situations in KC, so I'll address those briefly, and with minimal defense. LJ's QB situation may very well suck big time next year. Remember however that Huard bosted the best passer rating in the NFL during the weeks he started for the injured T. Green. KC has lost a lot on the O-Line, 2 hall of fame pro-bowlers in w. Roaf and W. Shields over the past 2 off-seasons. Remember however, KC still has a 6 year starter at center in C. Wiegman and a pro-bowl guard in Brian Waters. I believe the O-line will not be great this coming season, but it won't be as bad as LT's O-line circa 2002-2003 either. Remember the stats he put up?

Call it man love or whatever......it's just my 2 pennies.

 

[toxicbees]

I think it's a lot closer in my opinion. For a couple of reasons:

We're not sure how Brian Leonard is going to be used. Is he going to be used on passing downs?
With both San Francisco and Arizona improving, I truly believe the Rams are now the worst team in the NFC West. I don't think their schedule is as good as people think.
With the youth movement in the passing game, I fully expect Herm to run LJ to the ground again this year. Which means he'll probably lead the league in rushes again.
Until LJ actually gets injured, there is no reason to believe he'll break down.

 

[SSOG]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

 

[SSOG]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

 

[Banger]

I believe the O-line will not be great this coming season, but it won't be as bad as LT's O-line circa 2002-2003 either. Remember the stats he put up?

ya, but LT>>LJ. LJ will still be top 5 this year based on workload alone. His ypc will continue to drop as will his td total but I'd still probably take him 3rd off the board.

 

[kbleck]

Most people say SJAX > LJ

But is LJ > Gore? I think there is less of a distance between Gore and LJ than LJ and SJAX

 

[jurb26]

Of last years top 5 RBs:

LT

LJ

Jackson

Gore

Parker

I expect only 2 will finish in the top 5 again. LT is a given. The other I'm not sure about yet. I am sure I will not have LJ there though. So, I have to vote for Jackson.

 

[Gandalf]

I'd vote SJax.

The KC o-line has lost some talent and I'm not a fan of this contract stuff.

 

[Dhizz]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

So ****, Saunders, Roaf all left and LJ crashed and burned for 2,200 yards, 19 TDs, on a horrible offense, with a horrible offensive line, and garbage QB play.The line is going to actually improve this year, and I hold out hope the offense might actually evolve a little (Bowe should help). And what's LJ nightmarishly low floor? 15 tds and 2000 total yards? Ahhh the horrors.And there's no solid research to project injuries. With the sample size, 100s of variables, most of these RBs are more or less in unique situations. Along with changes in equipment, medicine, nutrition, eras. I doubt there are even 50 cases remotely close to LJs, it's probably close to 0. (1st year as starter, 400+ carries, at his age)And lastly, it's hilarious to see people pimping Gore, and talking about LJs coming injuries. Gore has had major surgeries on BOTH knees, and BOTH shoulders. Gores medical sheet is probably an inch think. So an arbitrary number (400 carries) carries more weight then Gore's history of major injuries to the legs ands shoulders. Uh yah. You go ride that workhorse Gore, I'll take the guy with 7 less surgeries and take my changes with the 400 carry club curse.

 

[SSOG]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

So ****, Saunders, Roaf all left and LJ crashed and burned for 2,200 yards, 19 TDs, on a horrible offense, with a horrible offensive line, and garbage QB play.

****, Saunders, and Roaf all left and LJ dropped from 5.2 yards per carry to 4.3. If his ypc drops by .9 again, it'll take him 513 touches to reach 2,000. Unless you think LJ is going to break his carries record again, it's hard not to predict a severe drop, even if he doesn't get hurt.

The line is going to actually improve this year, and I hold out hope the offense might actually evolve a little (Bowe should help). And what's LJ nightmarishly low floor? 15 tds and 2000 total yards? Ahhh the horrors.

How is LJ's line going to improve? How is the loss of a HoFer who is still playing at an incredibly high level an "improvement"? As for LJ's floor... LJ's floor is catastrophic injury or total implosion... say, 3.5 yards per carry times 300 carries... that's 1050 rushing. Seems like a reasonable floor to me.

And there's no solid research to project injuries. With the sample size, 100s of variables, most of these RBs are more or less in unique situations. Along with changes in equipment, medicine, nutrition, eras. I doubt there are even 50 cases remotely close to LJs, it's probably close to 0. (1st year as starter, 400+ carries, at his age)

There's plenty of solid research to predict injuries. I mean, simple logic says that Larry Johnson is more likely to be injured, because you're more likely to get injured when you're getting hit, and you're more likely to be hit when you have the ball, and nobody has the ball more than LJ.

And lastly, it's hilarious to see people pimping Gore, and talking about LJs coming injuries. Gore has had major surgeries on BOTH knees, and BOTH shoulders. Gores medical sheet is probably an inch think. So an arbitrary number (400 carries) carries more weight then Gore's history of major injuries to the legs ands shoulders. Uh yah. You go ride that workhorse Gore, I'll take the guy with 7 less surgeries and take my changes with the 400 carry club curse.

I believe the question was SJax vs. LJ, not LJ vs. Gore.

 

[SayWhat?]

So LJ's YPC drops by .9 last year, so you think it's even remotely feasible that he drops ANOTHER .9, down to 3.4ypc? Some of your points are definitely valid SSOG, but that's one of the five dumbest statements I've ever read on these boards.

 

[Fantasy Warrior]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.

Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

So ****, Saunders, Roaf all left and LJ crashed and burned for 2,200 yards, 19 TDs, on a horrible offense, with a horrible offensive line, and garbage QB play.

****, Saunders, and Roaf all left and LJ dropped from 5.2 yards per carry to 4.3. If his ypc drops by .9 again, it'll take him 513 touches to reach 2,000. Unless you think LJ is going to break his carries record again, it's hard not to predict a severe drop, even if he doesn't get hurt.

The line is going to actually improve this year, and I hold out hope the offense might actually evolve a little (Bowe should help). And what's LJ nightmarishly low floor? 15 tds and 2000 total yards? Ahhh the horrors.

How is LJ's line going to improve? How is the loss of a HoFer who is still playing at an incredibly high level an "improvement"? As for LJ's floor... LJ's floor is catastrophic injury or total implosion... say, 3.5 yards per carry times 300 carries... that's 1050 rushing. Seems like a reasonable floor to me.

What is this statement based on? I agree any RB's floor would be a major injury or total drop in production, but wouldn't that statement hold true for any player, at any position, in any sport? :X

And there's no solid research to project injuries. With the sample size, 100s of variables, most of these RBs are more or less in unique situations. Along with changes in equipment, medicine, nutrition, eras. I doubt there are even 50 cases remotely close to LJs, it's probably close to 0. (1st year as starter, 400+ carries, at his age)

There's plenty of solid research to predict injuries. Did you mean evidence or truely just research. I can research anything based on my own personal theory or theories of others, this doesn't mean however,these theories will be founded on any evidence. If you do have evidence, please provide it. I mean, simple logic says that Larry Johnson is more likely to be injured, because you're more likely to get injured when you're getting hit, and you're more likely to be hit when you have the ball, and nobody has the ball more than LJ. Did you not look at the evidence I provided for LT's 2002 season of 451 touches and subsequent 2003 production. You know, I could just as easily argue that more touches = more opportunities for production. Please provide numbers to back up all this "solid research" and "simple logic".

 

[SSOG]

What is this statement based on? I agree any RB's floor would be a major injury or total drop in production, but wouldn't that statement hold true for any player, at any position, in any sport?

Yes, but it's especially true for any player who just set a record for most punishment ever taken in a single season in the history of the sport.

There's plenty of solid research to predict injuries. Did you mean evidence or truely just research. I can research anything based on my own personal theory or theories of others, this doesn't mean however,these theories will be founded on any evidence. If you do have evidence, please provide it. I mean, simple logic says that Larry Johnson is more likely to be injured, because you're more likely to get injured when you're getting hit, and you're more likely to be hit when you have the ball, and nobody has the ball more than LJ. Did you not look at the evidence I provided for LT's 2002 season of 451 touches and subsequent 2003 production. You know, I could just as easily argue that more touches = more opportunities for production. Please provide numbers to back up all this "solid research" and "simple logic".

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=4764http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2004/07/2...t-analysis/236/

I also keep a spreadsheet that I update every season with the Year N+1 results of high-carry RBs. I don't have access to it at the moment (it's on a different computer), but if you want, I can pull some numbers from it and post them here for you. Generally speaking, high-carry RBs are significantly more likely to suffer catastrophic injury or see a serious decline in per-play production than moderate-carry RBs.

Sure, there are exceptions (LT 2002, pretty much all of Eric Dickerson's career), but that's going to be true of every "rule" in Football because of all of the lurking variables and the inherently small sample sizes. Still, there's enough to suggest that Larry Johnson is more likely to fall off a cliff than Steven Jackson is.

 

[SSOG]

So LJ's YPC drops by .9 last year, so you think it's even remotely feasible that he drops ANOTHER .9, down to 3.4ypc? Some of your points are definitely valid SSOG, but that's one of the five dumbest statements I've ever read on these boards.

Sure, I think it's remotely feasible. Jamal Lewis dropped from 5.3 to 4.3 to 3.4 over a three year span, so it's feasible. Do I think it's likely? No, but I do expect another drop in ypc, and even with a small drop (say .2 or .3 ypc), the loss of production is going to be magnified by the fact that there's no way Johnson is setting the carries record again. Also, everyone is expecting KC to have a pretty mediocre offense (or worse) this season, but nobody seems to be adjusting LJ's TDs downards any.

 

[Fantasy Warrior]

What is this statement based on? I agree any RB's floor would be a major injury or total drop in production, but wouldn't that statement hold true for any player, at any position, in any sport?

Yes, but it's especially true for any player who just set a record for most punishment ever taken in a single season in the history of the sport.

There's plenty of solid research to predict injuries. Did you mean evidence or truely just research. I can research anything based on my own personal theory or theories of others, this doesn't mean however,these theories will be founded on any evidence. If you do have evidence, please provide it. I mean, simple logic says that Larry Johnson is more likely to be injured, because you're more likely to get injured when you're getting hit, and you're more likely to be hit when you have the ball, and nobody has the ball more than LJ. Did you not look at the evidence I provided for LT's 2002 season of 451 touches and subsequent 2003 production. You know, I could just as easily argue that more touches = more opportunities for production. Please provide numbers to back up all this "solid research" and "simple logic".

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=4764http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2004/07/2...t-analysis/236/

I also keep a spreadsheet that I update every season with the Year N+1 results of high-carry RBs. I don't have access to it at the moment (it's on a different computer), but if you want, I can pull some numbers from it and post them here for you. Generally speaking, high-carry RBs are significantly more likely to suffer catastrophic injury or see a serious decline in per-play production than moderate-carry RBs.

Thank you for providing the article. I enjoyed it very much. It does indeed provide very relevent correlational evidence suggesting a relationship between #'s of carries to injury or drop in production. It is a correlation however and not a cause and effect relationship. Many of these players had other significant changes occuring within their respective careers at the time of the YPC decrease or injury following a high mileage season. I'd like to also point out most of these running backs listed, unlike LJ had very little tread left on their tires at the time of the injury or drop in production. Most had played relatively long NFL careers before those injuries. Again, a correlation is not a cause-and-effect relationship. I enjoy this argument, however none of us will be able to make anything more than an educated guess as to which RB (LJ or S. Jackson) will have the better 2007 season. I'm putting my money on LJ.

Sure, there are exceptions (LT 2002, pretty much all of Eric Dickerson's career), but that's going to be true of every "rule" in Football because of all of the lurking variables and the inherently small sample sizes. Still, there's enough to suggest that Larry Johnson is more likely to fall off a cliff than Steven Jackson is.

 

[SSOG]

Thank you for providing the article. I enjoyed it very much. It does indeed provide very relevent correlational evidence suggesting a relationship between #'s of carries to injury or drop in production. It is a correlation however and not a cause and effect relationship. Many of these players had other significant changes occuring within their respective careers at the time of the YPC decrease or injury following a high mileage season. I'd like to also point out most of these running backs listed, unlike LJ had very little tread left on their tires at the time of the injury or drop in production. Most had played relatively long NFL careers before those injuries. Again, a correlation is not a cause-and-effect relationship. I enjoy this argument, however none of us will be able to make anything more than an educated guess as to which RB (LJ or S. Jackson) will have the better 2007 season. I'm putting my money on LJ.

I'm aware that correlation does not imply causation, and I certainly wouldn't drop LJ out of the top 4-5 or so (depending on scoring system)... but as far as I'm concerned, it's just one more red flag to worry about, and LJ certainly doesn't have any shortage of red flags (workload, offensive line, QB, the offense in general). The end result is that I have LJ ranked lower than pretty much everyone else, so it's hard to envision winding up with him on any of my rosters (although I certainly wouldn't shy away if he dropped a touch).

 

[kensat30]

I vote LJ.

When KC gets in the redzone and near the goalline you know who the ball is going to. You can't say the same thing for Steven Jackson and the Ram's.

I also don't think Jackson is as good of a pure RB as LJ. He tends to bounce things to the outside way too much for my tastes, especially considering his size. LJ is almost the polar opposite of Jackson, in that he does not F around near the line of scrimmage, and is one of the quickest RBs to hit the hole in the league. His decisiveness is the key to LJ's success IMO and makes him the ideal goalline and redzone RB. Regarding Steven Jackson, I think that the St. Louis coaching staff realizes his tendencies and that is the reason they went out and picked up a FB/RB hybrid like Leonard in the draft. At times last season, I remember the Rma's bringing in a decreipt Stephen Davis on some short yardage and goal to go carries, and I think that could potentially be a minor factor for Jackson this season as well. Even as a change of pace and breather RB, Leonard could have an impact on the number of short yardage TDs Jackson receives...

Another reason I prefer LJ to Jackson is that SJax relies way more on his receiving game to bolster his stats. Last year Jackson had 90 catches and 800 yards receiving... that doesn't happen very often and it won't happen again this coming year. Why? This year Bruce is healthy again, they replaced Curtis with an equally talented Bennett, and with the McMichael signing they gained their first legit pass catching TE in forever. McMichael's impact in the passing game could potentially directly affect Jackson's numbers. I'm seeing the potential for a 25-50% decline in receiving from Jackson. That would leave him with a still significant base of receiving points (~50-60 catches), but still not as much as last season. Also, LJ can catch the ball just as well Jackson and Edwards has hinted at LJ's increased role in the passing game this season. I think the playing field will be a little more level on the receiving end of things with LJ's presence increasing and Jackson's decreasing.

Bottomline for me, the TDs tell the story. LJ is much more likely to have 15+ TDs in 2007. The guy has been ultra-productive around the goalline and Herm Edwards has shown that he is intent on making LJ has one and only weapon in that respect. Jackson had trouble getting into the endzone in the first half of last season and I think the potential is there for him to struggle again at some point in 2007. The Ram's have been a passing team for so long that I don't think they will ever fully allow Jackson to carry them at the goalline like LJ can and will for KC. St. Louis has Torry Holt, Bruce, and now Bennett, and McMichael so I really can't blame them for not forcefeeding Jackson.

 

[SSOG]

I vote LJ. When KC gets in the redzone and near the goalline you know who the ball is going to. You can't say the same thing for Steven Jackson and the Ram's.

Actually, one of my biggest criticisms of the Rams offense at the beginning of last season (and all Scott Linehan offenses, truth be told) is that they got too much away from the running game as soon as they got in the red zone... but they really changed their stripes about halfway through the season last year. SJax had 1 TD in his first 5 games last year (.2 TDs per game), then 5 TDs over his next 7 games (.7 TDs per game), and then 10 TDs over his last 4 games (2.5 TDs per game). St. Louis really started funneling their red zone offense through SJax, and the team really improved as a result. I honestly believe that St. Louis learned their lesson, and that SJax will remain an integral part of their red-zone offense this year... and since St. Louis is probably going to score more TDs than KC this season, I like SJax's chances to score more TDs than LJ.

 

[Penguin]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

So ****, Saunders, Roaf all left and LJ crashed and burned for 2,200 yards, 19 TDs, on a horrible offense, with a horrible offensive line, and garbage QB play.The line is going to actually improve this year, and I hold out hope the offense might actually evolve a little (Bowe should help). And what's LJ nightmarishly low floor? 15 tds and 2000 total yards? Ahhh the horrors.And there's no solid research to project injuries. With the sample size, 100s of variables, most of these RBs are more or less in unique situations. Along with changes in equipment, medicine, nutrition, eras. I doubt there are even 50 cases remotely close to LJs, it's probably close to 0. (1st year as starter, 400+ carries, at his age)And lastly, it's hilarious to see people pimping Gore, and talking about LJs coming injuries. Gore has had major surgeries on BOTH knees, and BOTH shoulders. Gores medical sheet is probably an inch think. So an arbitrary number (400 carries) carries more weight then Gore's history of major injuries to the legs ands shoulders. Uh yah. You go ride that workhorse Gore, I'll take the guy with 7 less surgeries and take my changes with the 400 carry club curse.

I can tell you from listening to Serius' NFL Radio daily the past few weeks that Issac Bruce said Brian Leonard would be used extensively in passing situations and at the goal line, 50-60 targets is quite possible.My feeling: I wouldn't be suprised in the least if SJax's reception total dropped from 90 to 45-55 this season. As far as the goaline stuff, I'll believe it when I see it.Carl Peterson, GM of the Chiefs said that he believes that the 2007 O-Line will be as good if not better than the 2006 version. My feeling: They're going to force feed this guy the ball, especially if Croyle is in there as the starting QB, they don't care if they wear him out and he's completely useless after 2008/09I don't think it's nearly as big of a gap as some people are implying here, JMHO

 

[Blackjacks]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

So ****, Saunders, Roaf all left and LJ crashed and burned for 2,200 yards, 19 TDs, on a horrible offense, with a horrible offensive line, and garbage QB play.The line is going to actually improve this year, and I hold out hope the offense might actually evolve a little (Bowe should help). And what's LJ nightmarishly low floor? 15 tds and 2000 total yards? Ahhh the horrors.

And there's no solid research to project injuries. With the sample size, 100s of variables, most of these RBs are more or less in unique situations. Along with changes in equipment, medicine, nutrition, eras. I doubt there are even 50 cases remotely close to LJs, it's probably close to 0. (1st year as starter, 400+ carries, at his age)

And lastly, it's hilarious to see people pimping Gore, and talking about LJs coming injuries. Gore has had major surgeries on BOTH knees, and BOTH shoulders. Gores medical sheet is probably an inch think. So an arbitrary number (400 carries) carries more weight then Gore's history of major injuries to the legs ands shoulders. Uh yah. You go ride that workhorse Gore, I'll take the guy with 7 less surgeries and take my changes with the 400 carry club curse.

Name me one guy that has had 400+ carries the year before and not gotten hurt in the past 25 years. When the answer is 4 out of 4 I don't see that as luck. I can make the comment "he'll probably get hurt cause every other rb who has had that many carries has gotten hurt as well" and be telling the absolute truth. I'm not a Gore fan either and would take LJ before him also. I see LJ about #12-15 next year and personally Gore is out of my top 15.

To say the KC will be better without Shields is just silly. Give me some reasons why you said that.

 

[lord_helmet]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

So ****, Saunders, Roaf all left and LJ crashed and burned for 2,200 yards, 19 TDs, on a horrible offense, with a horrible offensive line, and garbage QB play.The line is going to actually improve this year, and I hold out hope the offense might actually evolve a little (Bowe should help). And what's LJ nightmarishly low floor? 15 tds and 2000 total yards? Ahhh the horrors.And there's no solid research to project injuries. With the sample size, 100s of variables, most of these RBs are more or less in unique situations. Along with changes in equipment, medicine, nutrition, eras. I doubt there are even 50 cases remotely close to LJs, it's probably close to 0. (1st year as starter, 400+ carries, at his age)And lastly, it's hilarious to see people pimping Gore, and talking about LJs coming injuries. Gore has had major surgeries on BOTH knees, and BOTH shoulders. Gores medical sheet is probably an inch think. So an arbitrary number (400 carries) carries more weight then Gore's history of major injuries to the legs ands shoulders. Uh yah. You go ride that workhorse Gore, I'll take the guy with 7 less surgeries and take my changes with the 400 carry club curse.

Wait.. A voice of reason in a Larry Johnson thread ? The "sharks" won't take kindly to such a thing

 

[JuSt CuZ]

S. JAX wins Fantasy Championships, at least in MY league. LJ burns out at the end, I had them both last year in 2 seperate leagues, LJ had a better supporting cast and still did not win me a title.

 

[jurrassic]

I play in a 2 player keeper league and have LT, LJ, and Addai. LJ is a pretty solid #2 back, but based on opinions here I should keep Addai over him.

 

[Sup_Yo]

I play in a 2 player keeper league and have LT, LJ, and Addai. LJ is a pretty solid #2 back, but based on opinions here I should keep Addai over him.

uhhhh... yes.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

I'd take Jackson for the following reasons1 = I play in a PPR league2 = STL much better offense than KC3 = less miles on him4 = I'm a Rams fan

5= SJax looks to have a MUCH easier schedule

SOS has Johnson with the easier schedule.As most others have said, I'd go Jackson without hesitation.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

S. JAX wins Fantasy Championships, at least in MY league. LJ burns out at the end, I had them both last year in 2 seperate leagues, LJ had a better supporting cast and still did not win me a title.

SJax was a total stud last year, particularly during fantasy playoffs, but it's a stretch to say LJ burns out. You could say that about LT even, but not LJ. Here's LTs performance during fantasy playoffs the last 2 yearsRush-Yards-TD-Rec-Yards-TD25-199-2-1-5-0 22-123-0-1-10-0 16-66-0-2-14 Good numbers but weak in the finals, when you'd need him most.Here's 200521-75-0-1-0-0 24-76-0-4-9-0 14-47-0-3-18-0 Bad game every week of the playoffs.Here's LJ23-120-0-1-4-019-84-0-3-9-031-135-1-0-0-0Those look pretty solid to me...200530-140-2-2-9-026-143-3-3-28-031-167-2-2-17-0Those are stellar numbers. I'm not sure where you're getting the "LJ burns out" bit.I think the comment about LJ having a better supporting cast is questionable as well..

 

[Dhizz]

Wait.. A voice of reason in a Larry Johnson thread ? The "sharks" won't take kindly to such a thing

There's an abnormally high amount of LJ haters out there. It goes back to 2005. LJ was taken in the 4th/5th, and sharks freaked out. Take a cuff in the 4th/5th?! Add in Holmes owners, and the forum freaked out. So you had the "wasted value" crowd and the Holmes owners who were happily bashing the LJ lovers.Of course, when LJ ran for 110 and 2 tds on 9 CARRIES, the war took off. Then when Holmes went down, LJ carried a lot of teams to the championship. Between the threads bashing LJ, the horrible draft pick, Holmes owners laughing at a wasted pick, it still runs bitter to this day.Then 2006, Roaf is gone, Dicky is gone, LJ has never carried the load, he's not proven.Woops. 400+ carries, 19 TDs, 2200 total yards. Top 3 RB. Thanks.Jackson wasn't even a top 10 RB after 8 games last year. He had a huge finish, now he's LJs Daddy? Both are great. SJAX is great. LJ is great. But don't put down LJ. The guy has been a TD machine since he joined the league. No reason to hate his game, he's a great RB. Just enjoy it. You like redheads. I like brunettes. LT owners have their blondes. Let the good times roll.

 

[dickey moe]

I'm not a Gore fan either and would take LJ before him also. I see LJ about #12-15 next year and personally Gore is out of my top 15.

Would you like to join all of my leagues?

 

[kensat30]

I vote LJ. When KC gets in the redzone and near the goalline you know who the ball is going to. You can't say the same thing for Steven Jackson and the Ram's.

Actually, one of my biggest criticisms of the Rams offense at the beginning of last season (and all Scott Linehan offenses, truth be told) is that they got too much away from the running game as soon as they got in the red zone... but they really changed their stripes about halfway through the season last year. SJax had 1 TD in his first 5 games last year (.2 TDs per game), then 5 TDs over his next 7 games (.7 TDs per game), and then 10 TDs over his last 4 games (2.5 TDs per game). St. Louis really started funneling their red zone offense through SJax, and the team really improved as a result. I honestly believe that St. Louis learned their lesson, and that SJax will remain an integral part of their red-zone offense this year... and since St. Louis is probably going to score more TDs than KC this season, I like SJax's chances to score more TDs than LJ.

You wanna place the #2 pick based on half a season be my guest. I don't trust St. Louis to feed Steven Jackson one bit. The guy scored half of his touchdowns in a 4 game period last year. HALF. Those TDs came in shootout games, after they had been eliminated from playoff contention, and the games were likewise meaningless to their opponents as well. Fast forward to week 1 of 2007, and I think it will more closely resemble week 1 of 2006 versus week 17 of 2006.

 

[greggorymac]

I'd take Jackson for the following reasons1 = I play in a PPR league2 = STL much better offense than KC3 = less miles on him4 = I'm a Rams fan

5= SJax looks to have a MUCH easier schedule

6 = Rams have a QB

Just think of how many people are going to be in the box on every play. Croyle will not scare anyone.

 

[greggorymac]

Wait.. A voice of reason in a Larry Johnson thread ? The "sharks" won't take kindly to such a thing

There's an abnormally high amount of LJ haters out there. It goes back to 2005. LJ was taken in the 4th/5th, and sharks freaked out. Take a cuff in the 4th/5th?! Add in Holmes owners, and the forum freaked out. So you had the "wasted value" crowd and the Holmes owners who were happily bashing the LJ lovers.Of course, when LJ ran for 110 and 2 tds on 9 CARRIES, the war took off. Then when Holmes went down, LJ carried a lot of teams to the championship. Between the threads bashing LJ, the horrible draft pick, Holmes owners laughing at a wasted pick, it still runs bitter to this day.Then 2006, Roaf is gone, Dicky is gone, LJ has never carried the load, he's not proven.Woops. 400+ carries, 19 TDs, 2200 total yards. Top 3 RB. Thanks.Jackson wasn't even a top 10 RB after 8 games last year. He had a huge finish, now he's LJs Daddy? Both are great. SJAX is great. LJ is great. But don't put down LJ. The guy has been a TD machine since he joined the league. No reason to hate his game, he's a great RB. Just enjoy it. You like redheads. I like brunettes. LT owners have their blondes. Let the good times roll.

What you don't get, is if it's 2/3 through the season and they are not in playoff contention, KC will try and force Coyle as their starter. If Coyle comes in, LJ's value is dead as they will stack the line every down. I think most of the posters here are basing their LJ opinnions on KC's current QB situation, not harsh feelings from 2005.

 

[Dhizz]

What you don't get, is if it's 2/3 through the season and they are not in playoff contention, KC will try and force Coyle as their starter. If Coyle comes in, LJ's value is dead as they will stack the line every down. I think most of the posters here are basing their LJ opinnions on KC's current QB situation, not harsh feelings from 2005.

What you don't get is, you didn't watch KC play last year, AT ALL. Huard? Green? No wrs? Herm running LJ 400+ times?Don't talk to me about LJ facing 8 in the box. That's ALL he faced last year. So again, last year, crappy o-line, predictable offense, run LJ into a wall, crappy QB play, no WRs, no playmakers. So what you're scared about, happened last year.

 

[SSOG]

Wait.. A voice of reason in a Larry Johnson thread ? The "sharks" won't take kindly to such a thing

There are lots of voices of reason in here, it just so happens that this was the only one you agreed with. Just because you disagree with someone else's points doesn't make them invalid, poorly researched, or unreasonable.

Wait.. A voice of reason in a Larry Johnson thread ? The "sharks" won't take kindly to such a thing

There's an abnormally high amount of LJ haters out there. It goes back to 2005. LJ was taken in the 4th/5th, and sharks freaked out. Take a cuff in the 4th/5th?! Add in Holmes owners, and the forum freaked out. So you had the "wasted value" crowd and the Holmes owners who were happily bashing the LJ lovers.Of course, when LJ ran for 110 and 2 tds on 9 CARRIES, the war took off. Then when Holmes went down, LJ carried a lot of teams to the championship. Between the threads bashing LJ, the horrible draft pick, Holmes owners laughing at a wasted pick, it still runs bitter to this day.

Don't quit your day job (well, unless your day job is psychology, in which case, do). I suppose I qualify as an LJ "hater" here, but I fervently supported taking LJ in the 4th/5th two years ago, arguing that even if he never won the starting job, the RB pie was so huge in Kansas City that if LJ even got a third of it he'd justify his cost.The difference between then and now? Well, back then I thought LJ presented value, and now I don't, simple as that. Why? Well, first off, the RB pie in Kansas City looks to be getting a heckuvalot smaller all of a sudden (between the loss of Saunders/Vermeil, the retirement of Roaf/Shields, the loss of Green, and the potential addition of a QB with no real game experience- Kansas City isn't going to rush for 30 TDs this year. It's possible their entire offense won't score 30 TDs COMBINED this year). Second off, LJ's had a very scary workload over the past two years, which just raises another red flag for me. Third off, LJ's not going for a 4th or 5th rounder anymore- LJ is now going for the #2 or #3 overall pick.Besides, how am I a hater? I'm calling him easily one of the top 5 fantasy players in the entire NFL! I just think that Tomlinson is clearly tier1, SJax is tier2, and LJ/Gore are tier3 (plus Westy in PPR). Oh wow, I'm really hating on LJ by saying that there are two players who I'd clearly rather have than him.

I vote LJ. When KC gets in the redzone and near the goalline you know who the ball is going to. You can't say the same thing for Steven Jackson and the Ram's.

Actually, one of my biggest criticisms of the Rams offense at the beginning of last season (and all Scott Linehan offenses, truth be told) is that they got too much away from the running game as soon as they got in the red zone... but they really changed their stripes about halfway through the season last year. SJax had 1 TD in his first 5 games last year (.2 TDs per game), then 5 TDs over his next 7 games (.7 TDs per game), and then 10 TDs over his last 4 games (2.5 TDs per game). St. Louis really started funneling their red zone offense through SJax, and the team really improved as a result. I honestly believe that St. Louis learned their lesson, and that SJax will remain an integral part of their red-zone offense this year... and since St. Louis is probably going to score more TDs than KC this season, I like SJax's chances to score more TDs than LJ.

You wanna place the #2 pick based on half a season be my guest. I don't trust St. Louis to feed Steven Jackson one bit. The guy scored half of his touchdowns in a 4 game period last year. HALF. Those TDs came in shootout games, after they had been eliminated from playoff contention, and the games were likewise meaningless to their opponents as well. Fast forward to week 1 of 2007, and I think it will more closely resemble week 1 of 2006 versus week 17 of 2006.

St. Louis had one of the most inefficient red zone offenses in the league over the first half of the season. That offense was drastically improved during the second half, when they started feeding S-Jax the rock. I'm banking on the fact that Linehan likes scoring TDs, and saw firsthand that the best way to do that last season was to give SJax the rock in the red zone.

 

[Dulymus Mudhounds]

With these two you HAVE to break it down to ppr, non ppr.

ppr - SJ - no question

non ppr - LJ - no question

I have the 3rd pick in our draft and our league is non-ppr. I'm VERY happy to have LJ sitting there at #3 since I know, barring injuries before our draft, the guy picking 2nd is taking SJ.

Mud

 

[The Jacket]

SJaxStronger Team, stronger O, better coach, better scheduleActually, I'd like to hear your arguments FOR LJ since you think both have pros as the #2

Stronger team? Better coach?Lets wait for the Rams to stay within 2 TDs of the Chiefs before we say they're a "stronger team", or perhaps let Scott Linehan sniff the playoffs before he's a better head coach than a guy who's made the playoffs more often than not.

 

[The Jacket]

Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

There's a moronic post if I've ever I've seen one.LJ was elite in fantasy terms last year and that was with no Vermeil ( ), no Roaf and a washed-up Shields.Don't kid yourself if you think Will Shields played at a level last year even remotely close to his pre-2005 form.

 

[The Jacket]

It's funny that the most desperate, pathetic argument against LJ is coming from the bitter Donkey fan who twice saw Johnson run over his sorry team's defense like a piece of garbage. More than 280 yards and over 320 yards combined with his few receptions.

That's what people forget about LJ: unlike a lottttt of the "best" NFL backs, he steps up against the better defenses. Baltimore? 120 yards at 5.2 per pop. Jacksonville? 140 yards and three trips to paydirt. San Diego? 130-some yards and 2 glory-dives.

Don't worry yourself about LJ's schedule.

 

[Dhizz]

****, Saunders, and Roaf all left and LJ dropped from 5.2 yards per carry to 4.3. If his ypc drops by .9 again, it'll take him 513 touches to reach 2,000. Unless you think LJ is going to break his carries record again, it's hard not to predict a severe drop, even if he doesn't get hurt.

You mean 5.2 yards split between backup and partial year starter? The biggest slight on LJ is a dip in his YPC? His first full season, 400+ carries. Only 4.3?LT dropped him 5.3 to 3.9 in the middle of his career. And it meant??? Not a whole bunch.

How is LJ's line going to improve? How is the loss of a HoFer who is still playing at an incredibly high level an "improvement"? As for LJ's floor... LJ's floor is catastrophic injury or total implosion... say, 3.5 yards per carry times 300 carries... that's 1050 rushing. Seems like a reasonable floor to me.

Shields did not play at an incredibily high level. The line was so bad last year, it won't take much to improve. Black was AWFUL at LT, and their RT was cut for being HORRIBLE. Two spots for huge improvement.From ADAM TEICHERWaters at right guard and Casey Wiegmann at center, both longtime starters for the Chiefs at those positions. They added Damion McIntosh, a six-year starter for San Diego and Miami, as the new left tackle. The Chiefs made McIntosh their free-agent priority, bringing him to Kansas City moments after the market opened and signing him before he could move on for another visit. John Welbourn, a right tackle for the Chiefs in recent years, will shift into Shields’ spot at right guard. Chris Terry is the right tackle.McIntosh and Terry will be big improvements at tackle. The Chiefs used the often overmatched Jordan Black on the left side and tried four different starters, mostly without success, on the right.And why exactly does SJAX not share the same floor? LJ was #2 two years ago, and LJ was #2 last year in FBG scoring. Seems like Dicky leaving didn't hurt him that much? Except the meaningless YPC drop from a backup role/limited starter to full time starter. There's 50 examples of stud RBs who had dips during their career. (LT 3.6 ypc his 1st year as a starter - oooo that turned out so horribly)

There's plenty of solid research to predict injuries. I mean, simple logic says that Larry Johnson is more likely to be injured, because you're more likely to get injured when you're getting hit, and you're more likely to be hit when you have the ball, and nobody has the ball more than LJ.

SJAX had just as many touches. Yes you get hit when you catch the ball. There's no research. That's not called research. Thats extremely small sample size theorizing, with limited real world date. Which is worth as much as the paper it's printed on. Emmitt Smith had 440 carries in 1992. OooOo. The horrors. Show me all the 1st year starters, who went for 400+ carries, and had less then 1,000 career carries. I'll wait...

I believe the question was SJax vs. LJ, not LJ vs. Gore.

It's an example of how people ignore major surgeries on both knees/shoulders, and pimp a guy as a horse you can ride, while being down on a guy due to injury concerns who's never had a major surgery. Follow?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I remember the Rma's bringing in a decreipt Stephen Davis on some short yardage and goal to go carries, and I think that could potentially be a minor factor for Jackson this season as well.

Jackson received 19 of the 20 carries the Rams had from inside the 5 last year (95%). Davis received one.In comparison to the other top backs, LJ got 89% (24 out of 27, Dee Brown had the other 3), and LT got 79%.In fact, I would guess that Sjax was in the top 3 in the league in terms of percentage of the teams' goaline carries, if not the top 1..

 

[AnonymousBob]

I remember the Rma's bringing in a decreipt Stephen Davis on some short yardage and goal to go carries, and I think that could potentially be a minor factor for Jackson this season as well.

Jackson received 19 of the 20 carries the Rams had from inside the 5 last year (95%). Davis received one.In comparison to the other top backs, LJ got 89% (24 out of 27, Dee Brown had the other 3), and LT got 79%.In fact, I would guess that Sjax was in the top 3 in the league in terms of percentage of the teams' goaline carries, if not the top 1..

So he has nowhere to go but down.