S. Jackson or L. Johnson? (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

You mean 5.2 yards split between backup and partial year starter? The biggest slight on LJ is a dip in his YPC? His first full season, 400+ carries. Only 4.3?

LT dropped him 5.3 to 3.9 in the middle of his career. And it meant??? Not a whole bunch.

LT dropped because he was nursing injuries (hamstring, iirc).

SJAX had just as many touches. Yes you get hit when you catch the ball. There's no research. That's not called research. Thats extremely small sample size theorizing, with limited real world date. Which is worth as much as the paper it's printed on. Emmitt Smith had 440 carries in 1992. OooOo. The horrors. Show me all the 1st year starters, who went for 400+ carries, and had less then 1,000 career carries. I'll wait...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=4764And I quote...

"The first issue is whether “touches” are a better measure of workload than carries, with touches equaling the total of each back’s carries and receptions for a given year. From 1978 through 2004, 60 running backs had seasons of at least 340 carries. Comparing the number of carries for each running back with the number of yards he gained the following year gives us a correlation coefficient of -.24. In other words, as players carry the ball more, they are less likely to run for as many yards the following year, due to a mixture of lost effectiveness and injury. If we want to measure only effectiveness (yards per carry) or playing time (total carries) the correlations are similar.

If we take the same 60 running backs and compare touches to yards the following year, the correlations are roughly half as large. This suggests that carries are a better indicator of workload than touches. Compare just receptions to rushing yards the following year, not even considering carries, and it is clear why: the correlation between receptions and yards the following year is actually positive, albeit tiny. If more receptions indicate anything, it is that a player will gain more yards the following year, in particular more yards per carry."

 

[kensat30]

I remember the Rma's bringing in a decreipt Stephen Davis on some short yardage and goal to go carries, and I think that could potentially be a minor factor for Jackson this season as well.

Jackson received 19 of the 20 carries the Rams had from inside the 5 last year (95%). Davis received one.In comparison to the other top backs, LJ got 89% (24 out of 27, Dee Brown had the other 3), and LT got 79%.In fact, I would guess that Sjax was in the top 3 in the league in terms of percentage of the teams' goaline carries, if not the top 1..

Here's one example I remember from last year that wouldn't show up in the sample you just pulled. Close game coming down to the wire, and Stephen Davis gets thrown there during a critical series in the 4th quarter.1-10-DET26 (4:28) S.Jackson right tackle to DET 23 for 3 yards (S.Wilson). 2-7-DET23 (3:47) S.Davis up the middle to DET 11 for 12 yards (S.Wilson). DET-L.Woods was injured during the play. 1-10-DET11 (3:08) S.Davis up the middle to DET 9 for 2 yards (S.Cody). 2-8-DET9 (2:19) S.Davis right guard to DET 5 for 4 yards (D.Bullocks). 3-4-DET5 (2:00) M.Bulger pass short right to I.Bruce for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Torry Holt was having trouble with a knee injury last year...with Bruce being older than all but a handful of players and Holt being hurt, I'm not amazed by the fact they rushed last year.

Holt is healthy and they have more weapons. Will SJax get as much work as last year? Will Holt and company get more redzone looks now that there is actually another option besides SJax?

 

[SSOG]

Torry Holt was having trouble with a knee injury last year...with Bruce being older than all but a handful of players and Holt being hurt, I'm not amazed by the fact they rushed last year. Holt is healthy and they have more weapons. Will SJax get as much work as last year? Will Holt and company get more redzone looks now that there is actually another option besides SJax?

Holt was never very much of a weapon in goal-to-go situations. Most of his TDs were of the longer variety, and he's never been a huge TD producer, anyway.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Torry Holt was having trouble with a knee injury last year...with Bruce being older than all but a handful of players and Holt being hurt, I'm not amazed by the fact they rushed last year. Holt is healthy and they have more weapons. Will SJax get as much work as last year? Will Holt and company get more redzone looks now that there is actually another option besides SJax?

The Rams already threw more times inside the 10 last year than any team has in the last 5 years. I wouldn't exactly call that an "off" year in terms of how often they're throwing in the redzone.You really expect those already outlier numbers to go even higher?

 

[Routilla]

I have LJ as #2 unless it's a PPR league in which case I have SJAX.

 

[greenf7cat]

Wow, very little support for Larry. I myself would draft LT 1st hands down. I may draft S. Jackson 2nd if playing in a ppr league, however I would give serious consideration to LJ. In a non-ppr league I would draft LJ 2nd, without thinking twice. I know a lot of people are hesitent to draft LJ because of his touches last season (457 = a hell of a lot). However, do you know LT had almost as many touches in 2002 (451 just 6 shy of LJ) and bounced back for a 17 TD season and 5.3 ypc in 2003......not too shaby.

Don't go off of touches, go off of carries. Research has shown less correlation between total touches and the risk of breakdown than between pure rushes and the risk of breakdown.Also, it's silly to talk about LJ's career numbers. He put those numbers up with Vermeil, Roaf, and Shields in town. How many of those guys are still around? How did LJ handle the loss of Roaf last season (hint: check out his ypc), and how do you think he's going to handle the loss of Shields, too?

And lastly, it's hilarious to see people pimping Gore, and talking about LJs coming injuries. Gore has had major surgeries on BOTH knees, and BOTH shoulders. Gores medical sheet is probably an inch think. So an arbitrary number (400 carries) carries more weight then Gore's history of major injuries to the legs ands shoulders. Uh yah. You go ride that workhorse Gore, I'll take the guy with 7 less surgeries and take my changes with the 400 carry club curse.

lets not all forget about Gore's "fumbalitis"