Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Sam Bradford Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

In Bradford’s rookie year, it felt like he got a lot of accolades and a lot of people providing the proverbial ‘once he gets the hang of this NFL thing…watch out’ treatment. Sure his WR’s stunk and for a franchise that had won a combined 6 games the previous 3 seasons, playing for a playoff berth in the final game of the season was noteworthy. But his YPA was an anemic 5.95. In two seasons encompassing 947 passing attempts, Bradford has completed but 25 passes that have travelled 20+ yards in the air. Cam Newton by comparison has already completed 29 in 430 fewer pass attempts.

I get that Bradford was hurt last season. I get that Newton had Steve Smith and that Bradford did not when doing a side by side comparison – although the Rams did get him one. But Bradford has to prove that he can threaten a defense. In 2010 he did a decent job in taking what the defense was giving him. But as you get closer to the end zone, there’s less for the defense to give. And as such, even in Bradford’s good year, the Rams scored more points than only 5 other teams.

While you could have provided logic that the Rams should have traded Bradford instead of the rights to RGIII, I suspect that Bradford’s pre CBA deal would have been an extraordinary detriment and what the Rams could have gotten back would have been minimal. In fact, Bradford’s legacy may be the anchor he was around the Rams options this off-season, even if he is able to become productive. But with the Rams counting on Brian Quick to almost come in and be their #1 WR off the bat…straight from Appalachian State, this could take a while (quick –when was the last time the Rams had a WR eclipse 800 yards receiving in a season? 2007 – Torry Holt – 1189). Fact is this is the WR corps of the Rams:

Steve Smith

Greg Salas

Brian Quick

Austin Pettis

Brandon Gibson

Danario Alexander

Danny Amendola

Dominique Curry

Lance Kendricks showed potential at TE, but there simply isn’t a lot here to work with. Now potentially the stage is set for teams to take this part of the Rams franchise so lightly that the Rams overachieve and surprise teams who lack focus during the match-up. But this group is raw…the two most accomplished WR’s above play the slot (Amendola/Smith). And with Jeff Fisher, a coach who has built his offensive reputation on the legs of Eddie George, Chris Johnson, Lendale White and even a tough mobile QB in Steve McNair…I don’t see the Rams making much headway in the passing game from an FF perspective. Bradford will continue to develop, but won’t be seen as a QB perhaps even in the Top 2/3’s of signal callers in the NFL by seasons end. I suspect his attempts will be dramatically reduced on a per game basis – think from a career average of 36.4 down to the 30-31 range with an emphasis placed on game management. The Rams simply don’t have the playmakers to be prolific and so Bradford’s charge will be to keep the TO’s down and leverage Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead in an RBBC situation that could exceed 425 carries.

Prediction: 288 Completions, 487 Attempts, 3180 Passing Yards, 17 TD’s 10 INT’s

 

[King of the Jungle]

In Bradford’s rookie year, it felt like he got a lot of accolades and a lot of people providing the proverbial ‘once he gets the hang of this NFL thing…watch out’ treatment. Sure his WR’s stunk and for a franchise that had won a combined 6 games the previous 3 seasons, playing for a playoff berth in the final game of the season was noteworthy. But his YPA was an anemic 5.95. In two seasons encompassing 947 passing attempts, Bradford has completed but 25 passes that have travelled 20+ yards in the air. Cam Newton by comparison has already completed 29 in 430 fewer pass attempts.

I get that Bradford was hurt last season. I get that Newton had Steve Smith and that Bradford did not when doing a side by side comparison – although the Rams did get him one. But Bradford has to prove that he can threaten a defense. In 2010 he did a decent job in taking what the defense was giving him. But as you get closer to the end zone, there’s less for the defense to give. And as such, even in Bradford’s good year, the Rams scored more points than only 5 other teams.

While you could have provided logic that the Rams should have traded Bradford instead of the rights to RGIII, I suspect that Bradford’s pre CBA deal would have been an extraordinary detriment and what the Rams could have gotten back would have been minimal. In fact, Bradford’s legacy may be the anchor he was around the Rams options this off-season, even if he is able to become productive. But with the Rams counting on Brian Quick to almost come in and be their #1 WR off the bat…straight from Appalachian State, this could take a while (quick –when was the last time the Rams had a WR eclipse 800 yards receiving in a season? 2007 – Torry Holt – 1189). Fact is this is the WR corps of the Rams:

Steve Smith

Greg Salas

Brian Quick

Austin Pettis

Brandon Gibson

Danario Alexander

Danny Amendola

Dominique Curry

Lance Kendricks showed potential at TE, but there simply isn’t a lot here to work with. Now potentially the stage is set for teams to take this part of the Rams franchise so lightly that the Rams overachieve and surprise teams who lack focus during the match-up. But this group is raw…the two most accomplished WR’s above play the slot (Amendola/Smith). And with Jeff Fisher, a coach who has built his offensive reputation on the legs of Eddie George, Chris Johnson, Lendale White and even a tough mobile QB in Steve McNair…I don’t see the Rams making much headway in the passing game from an FF perspective. Bradford will continue to develop, but won’t be seen as a QB perhaps even in the Top 2/3’s of signal callers in the NFL by seasons end. I suspect his attempts will be dramatically reduced on a per game basis – think from a career average of 36.4 down to the 30-31 range with an emphasis placed on game management. The Rams simply don’t have the playmakers to be prolific and so Bradford’s charge will be to keep the TO’s down and leverage Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead in an RBBC situation that could exceed 425 carries.

Prediction: 288 Completions, 487 Attempts, 3180 Passing Yards, 17 TD’s 10 INT’s

You do good work here.

 

[lbouchard]

The only thing I would add is that you forgot Chris Givens, who I like more than Quick to emerge

 

[mphtrilogy]

shotty scares the crap out of me...

sorry sam

3300 yards

21 tds

10 picks