Santana Moss: Dynasty Value (1 Viewer)

[PatsWillWin]

I think we can all agree that this has been a hugely disappointing year for Santana Moss. His numbers aren't AWFUL considering he missed a few games with a hamstring injury: 43 for 621 and 4 TD's, but much of that came in a single game in which he went for 140 and 3 TD's. Virtually all of his numbers are down from last season, including an alarmingly low (for him) 14.4 yards per catch - a number that ties his career worst in 2002. For a big play like Moss, that's hard to ignore.

So - what is his value moving forward with respect to a dynasty league?

My quick thoughts:

Pros:

Has had some huge seasons in the past and obviously has the talent.

Is still young at 27 years old.

Mark Brunell is no longer in WAS.

Cons:

Has been inconsistent - had a huge 2003, a bust in 2004, a huge 2005, and now this season.

Nagging hamstring injuries are never a good thing for wide receivers.

Jason Campbell is in WAS*.

* - Personally, I don't think this is a con. Not in dynasty leagues, anwyay - I think Campbell will be a fine quarterback and won't hinder Moss at all. I only mention it because of the perceived con that when a team has a QB change to a rookie starter, the general thought is that there will be a downgrade in the passing attack in the short-term. This is something that would factor into the thinking of the managers you'd be talking with about acquiring Santana.

I'll hang up and listen.

 

[-OZ-]

If his owners view Campbell as a significant reason to downgrade Moss, he probably is a buy-low.

He's around #30 right now, this year, which I'd view as pretty close to his floor. Unfortunetly, a big chunk came in one game (which I won't use to downgrade, but some do). If you can get him for the value you normally would give for a #30 WR, I'd certainly buy. I just don't know that his owners will value him there. I wouldn't put him quite in my top 20 right now.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

definitely a buy low

 

[redman]

Yup, buy low.

Moss' inconsistent numbers seem to have more to do with QB play and injuries than anything else. If he's healthy and with a QB that throws deep, he's money. Ignoring the size difference and therefore the different style that that requires, he's as good as Big Moss when the ball is in the air.

Campbell and this offense under Saunders figure to only get better, and Campbell already has shown he's willing and able to hit his receivers deep. Of note, as mediocre as the 'Skins offense has been this year, Wheelhouse's last stats thread indicated that the 'Skins are one of only 9 teams with 8 passing plays of greater than 40 yards this year.