Santonio Holmes trade value (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Gladly I only own him in a couple of leagues. That said, while I wouldn't mind moving him, I think the overreaction to his entire situation is a bit extreme. I can understand others not wanting to invest in Holmes as I'm not looking to buy him in other leagues. However, Holmes might actually represent a good buy for the following reasons:

--The guy is still only 26 years old

--He's put up decent #'s so far, particularly last year in his career. He's a safe bet in terms of talent to not "bust", IMO

--Look at what happened with Marshall just last year. Marshall was suspended by his own team, talks of trade surfaced, his value plummeted, and in the end, he's back to playing and is still viewed as a top WR with top value. Those that bought low on Marshall last year should be quite happy at this point

--Look at V. Jackson. He is also scheduled to be suspended, is older than Holmes, and is also one strike away from facing a lengthy suspension (not to mention prison sentence) if he gets yet another DUI. Why is his value considerably higher than Holmes despite both facing suspensions?

--Look at Dwayne Bowe. He too is coming off a 4 game suspension from last year. He too is one strike away from getting dinged for a full year. Why should his value be higher than Holmes?

In other words, there's reasons to be concerned with Holmes for sure. But, he's certainly not the 1st player to receive a suspension and there's plenty that have, returned to play well, and not had any future issues.

Holmes may actually be a nice buy if owners are overreacting and panic has set in.

 

[Reaper]

What about the fact that he's 1 of 3 #1 WR"s on a Run 1st team with a QB who has little experience and is coming off knee surgery who isn't even practicing? Then he has to quickly try to get in tune with his QB.

Fantasy wise this guy is Dead to me.

Dynasty wise - He very well might be on another team next year (or Braylon gone) - In which case I'd stash him if I could get him for peanuts.

 

[gianmarco]

What about the fact that he's 1 of 3 #1 WR"s on a Run 1st team with a QB who has little experience and is coming off knee surgery who isn't even practicing? Then he has to quickly try to get in tune with his QB.Fantasy wise this guy is Dead to me.Dynasty wise - He very well might be on another team next year (or Braylon gone) - In which case I'd stash him if I could get him for peanuts.

In terms of talent, I think it's pretty safe to say Holmes > Braylon/Cotch. Yes, ignoring the suspension, his situation isn't as nice as it was in Pitt, but it's not a death notice. There are FAR worse situations and plenty of WRs in a similar situation have put up solid #'s. That's not to mention the fact that it's unlikely all 3 of those WRs are there beyond a year.

 

[JPeso]

Majority says 1.10 or worse in rookie pick value here.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=528163

 

[JPeso]

What about the fact that he's 1 of 3 #1 WR"s on a Run 1st team with a QB who has little experience and is coming off knee surgery who isn't even practicing? Then he has to quickly try to get in tune with his QB.Fantasy wise this guy is Dead to me.Dynasty wise - He very well might be on another team next year (or Braylon gone) - In which case I'd stash him if I could get him for peanuts.

In terms of talent, I think it's pretty safe to say Holmes > Braylon/Cotch.

Cotchery? Easily. Braylon? Much closer in my eyes. If Braylon lands in a pass-happy offense after this year and Holmes is resigned in NYJ, I'd think they'd be drafted alongside each other.

 

[gianmarco]

Majority says 1.10 or worse in rookie pick value here.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=528163

I'd say the 1.9-1.10 is about right, which is a significant drop from his previous value. I don't get the "+" part. There's no way he should be sold for a 2nd round pick.

 

[Patoons]

Was offered Malcolm Kelly and Manningham for Holmes - I rejected.

I offered Holmes for Garcon - rejected.

 

[Patoons]

What about the fact that he's 1 of 3 #1 WR"s on a Run 1st team with a QB who has little experience and is coming off knee surgery who isn't even practicing? Then he has to quickly try to get in tune with his QB.Fantasy wise this guy is Dead to me.Dynasty wise - He very well might be on another team next year (or Braylon gone) - In which case I'd stash him if I could get him for peanuts.

In terms of talent, I think it's pretty safe to say Holmes > Braylon/Cotch.

Cotchery? Easily. Braylon? Much closer in my eyes. If Braylon lands in a pass-happy offense after this year and Holmes is resigned in NYJ, I'd think they'd be drafted alongside each other.

Not to get too much off topic, but I'm not sure I agree re: Braylon = Holmes.After watching Braylon for a year in NY, I can see why Cleveland fans were frustrated with him. He disappears frequently and definitely has a case of the dropsies.

 

[Sup_Yo]

I gave up 1.12 this morning for Holmes. PPR Dynasty league.

 

[Reaper]

What about the fact that he's 1 of 3 #1 WR"s on a Run 1st team with a QB who has little experience and is coming off knee surgery who isn't even practicing? Then he has to quickly try to get in tune with his QB.

Fantasy wise this guy is Dead to me.

Dynasty wise - He very well might be on another team next year (or Braylon gone) - In which case I'd stash him if I could get him for peanuts.

In terms of talent, I think it's pretty safe to say Holmes > Braylon/Cotch. Yes, ignoring the suspension, his situation isn't as nice as it was in Pitt, but it's not a death notice. There are FAR worse situations and plenty of WRs in a similar situation have put up solid #'s. That's not to mention the fact that it's unlikely all 3 of those WRs are there beyond a year.

You can mention it, I did as well....

But, I don't see Holme's talent that far ahead of Braylon or Cotchery + the familiararity he has with Sanchez already for THIS year.

The only way I see Holmes value spiking is if the RB's get dinged and or the OL or D gets to a point where they have to pass more...

But, the defense should be even better and this team shouldn't be in too many shootouts.

 

[KoolKat]

Just saw this trade happen right after the NFL trade. Personally, I think the guy who got Holmes is a moron for doing this trade. Start 12 team start 3 WR PPR dynasty, 6 pt QB TDs/1 pt per 20 yards passing.

Team A Receives: Holmes, Chester Taylor, and the 2.21

Team B Receives: Matt Schaub, 2.13

The guy traded away his number 1 QB in a QB friendly league for this? I wouldn't have done it for Schaub straight up, but then he goes ahead and moves to the end of the 2nd round rookie draft too. I wish I'd have known Schaub was on the market. No wonder he has the perennial worst team. All I can think of is that he is maneuvering to take Bradford at 1.01.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What about the fact that he's 1 of 3 #1 WR"s on a Run 1st team with a QB who has little experience and is coming off knee surgery who isn't even practicing? Then he has to quickly try to get in tune with his QB.Fantasy wise this guy is Dead to me.Dynasty wise - He very well might be on another team next year (or Braylon gone) - In which case I'd stash him if I could get him for peanuts.

In terms of talent, I think it's pretty safe to say Holmes > Braylon/Cotch.

Not sure that's such a sure thing as they all have different skill sets. I think Bryalon is actually more talented (from and atheltic standpoint), but isn't as good of a footbally player as he isn't as smart as Holmes and obviously his stone hands are far too unrealible. Cotchery is vastly under-rated by people that don't watch him consistently. He's tough/strong as heck, has very sticky hands and is more exploisve that he's given credit for.Let's not forget that Dustin Keller is in the mix and is basically a WR is a small TE body.Bottom line is Holme's immediate value definately takes a hit. The Jets are starting a promising but inexperienced QB and still want to be identified as a run first team. There's nothing to like about this trade if you are a Holme's owner. It's not a death sentance as some of your points are well taken (young and talented, plus either he or Edwards are gone next offseason for sure), but it's an immediate hit.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Just saw this trade happen right after the NFL trade. Personally, I think the guy who got Holmes is a moron for doing this trade. Start 12 team start 3 WR PPR dynasty, 6 pt QB TDs/1 pt per 20 yards passing.Team A Receives: Holmes, Chester Taylor, and the 2.21Team B Receives: Matt Schaub, 2.13The guy traded away his number 1 QB in a QB friendly league for this? I wouldn't have done it for Schaub straight up, but then he goes ahead and moves to the end of the 2nd round rookie draft too. I wish I'd have known Schaub was on the market. No wonder he has the perennial worst team. All I can think of is that he is maneuvering to take Bradford at 1.01.

Horrible trade. No other way to put it.

 

[gianmarco]

Just offered this in one league and was rejected:

Offered: 2011 1st round pick for S. Holmes

 

[roarlions]

Have been offered Addai for Holmes and rookie pick 2.07 in a 12 team PPR dynasty league.

 

[Crippler]

Glad to see some take advantage of the situtaion. Love getting Holmes for 1.12 in this draft.

The Addai offer is interesting but the other guy is trying to take advantage of the decrease in Holmes value

He is probably a hold right now and wait a year till his value goes back up or at least trade deadline if he becomes the guy in Jetland. I own him and would not trade him for the 1.9, 1.12 or any other late 1st. And I have had great success in my leagues draft but this one does not entice me at all.

 

[boojee]

I offered:

2011 2nd

2011 3rd

Nate Washington

Danny Ware

for

Holmes

4.04

and was rejected....

 

[Instinctive]

I heard rumors that in one league he went for a 5th rounder...

 

[Pack43]

This trade happened in one of my leagues today:

Holmes

3.12

for

1.11

Massaquoi

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Gladly I only own him in a couple of leagues. That said, while I wouldn't mind moving him, I think the overreaction to his entire situation is a bit extreme. I can understand others not wanting to invest in Holmes as I'm not looking to buy him in other leagues. However, Holmes might actually represent a good buy for the following reasons:--The guy is still only 26 years old--He's put up decent #'s so far, particularly last year in his career. He's a safe bet in terms of talent to not "bust", IMO--Look at what happened with Marshall just last year. Marshall was suspended by his own team, talks of trade surfaced, his value plummeted, and in the end, he's back to playing and is still viewed as a top WR with top value. Those that bought low on Marshall last year should be quite happy at this point--Look at V. Jackson. He is also scheduled to be suspended, is older than Holmes, and is also one strike away from facing a lengthy suspension (not to mention prison sentence) if he gets yet another DUI. Why is his value considerably higher than Holmes despite both facing suspensions?--Look at Dwayne Bowe. He too is coming off a 4 game suspension from last year. He too is one strike away from getting dinged for a full year. Why should his value be higher than Holmes?In other words, there's reasons to be concerned with Holmes for sure. But, he's certainly not the 1st player to receive a suspension and there's plenty that have, returned to play well, and not had any future issues. Holmes may actually be a nice buy if owners are overreacting and panic has set in.

I say Holmes slips alittle bit. Somewhere down to WR35 or so.

 

[EBF]

For rookies pick I would still need 1.06 or higher to move him. He's a proven talent in the prime of his career. Even if there's only a 50% chance of him staying out of trouble, that's higher than the odds of a late first round rookie pick succeeding.

Now is the time to buy because his value will never be lower for the next 4-5 years unless he washes out of football. Having seen people give up on guys like Cedric Benson and Antonio Bryant prematurely because of their off-field troubles, I would advise keeping Holmes if you own him. Talent earns endless opportunities and he will be back in your lineup producing by the middle of the season.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I was trying to peddle Holmes before the suspension and trade because of his impending departure from Pitt in '11. That and he's a knucklehead. Managed to get a late 1st and early 2nd round pick plus a RB prospect immediately after the trade happened. No skin off my back, since I can plug in MSW as my #3 WR for Holmes and still have promising #4 & 5 WRs. I figured it was time to bail on this guy and get something in return before he goes Plaxico.

 

[Reaper]

Now is the time to buy because his value will never be lower for the next 4-5 years unless he washes out of football. Having seen people give up on guys like Cedric Benson and Antonio Bryant prematurely because of their off-field troubles, I would advise keeping Holmes if you own him. Talent earns endless opportunities and he will be back in your lineup producing by the middle of the season.

You have to be talking Super Deep Dynasty Leagues, right?

Cedric Benson was ranked 86, 38, 36, 42 and 16 in FBG scoring.... You would have had some Awesome patience and Roster room to wait 5 seasons to lock down a nice #2 RB for last year.... Sure he looks good for this upcoming season but, I think alot of us had plenty of time to jump on that train...

Same with Bryant - 1 Really good season out of 7.... I'd rather not stash such a guy.

 

[Nagle2998]

As a Holmes owner I wouldn't trade him for 1.6 because at best your going to get Thomas, Benn or Dwyer and I rather wait another year and have Holmes then any of them.

 

[EBF]

Now is the time to buy because his value will never be lower for the next 4-5 years unless he washes out of football. Having seen people give up on guys like Cedric Benson and Antonio Bryant prematurely because of their off-field troubles, I would advise keeping Holmes if you own him. Talent earns endless opportunities and he will be back in your lineup producing by the middle of the season.

You have to be talking Super Deep Dynasty Leagues, right?

Cedric Benson was ranked 86, 38, 36, 42 and 16 in FBG scoring.... You would have had some Awesome patience and Roster room to wait 5 seasons to lock down a nice #2 RB for last year.... Sure he looks good for this upcoming season but, I think alot of us had plenty of time to jump on that train...

Same with Bryant - 1 Really good season out of 7.... I'd rather not stash such a guy.

You're missing the point. People often give up on players when they hit a rough patch. It's usually a mistake.Talent doesn't disappear overnight. Sure, you can cut Ricky Williams or Antonio Bryant when he gets into legal trouble, but he's just going to find his way back onto the field and make you regret it.

Same deal with Holmes. Now is the absolute worst time to sell him. He will get back onto the field and produce again. When that happens, people will realize that he's still a good player and his value will climb.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Now is the time to buy because his value will never be lower for the next 4-5 years unless he washes out of football. Having seen people give up on guys like Cedric Benson and Antonio Bryant prematurely because of their off-field troubles, I would advise keeping Holmes if you own him. Talent earns endless opportunities and he will be back in your lineup producing by the middle of the season.

You have to be talking Super Deep Dynasty Leagues, right?

Cedric Benson was ranked 86, 38, 36, 42 and 16 in FBG scoring.... You would have had some Awesome patience and Roster room to wait 5 seasons to lock down a nice #2 RB for last year.... Sure he looks good for this upcoming season but, I think alot of us had plenty of time to jump on that train...

Same with Bryant - 1 Really good season out of 7.... I'd rather not stash such a guy.

You're missing the point. People often give up on players when they hit a rough patch. It's usually a mistake.Talent doesn't disappear overnight. Sure, you can cut Ricky Williams or Antonio Bryant when he gets into legal trouble, but he's just going to find his way back onto the field and make you regret it.

Same deal with Holmes. Now is the absolute worst time to sell him. He will get back onto the field and produce again. When that happens, people will realize that he's still a good player and his value will climb.

So Plaxico is still on your roster?

 

[destro]

I was offered Chaz Schilens, Ryan Torain, and the 2010 5.01 for Holmes.

It was a tough call, but in the end, I rejected it. Maybe if Ryan Torain was on an NFL roster...

 

[stp-d]

Traded

Holmes

Marshawn Lynch

2.11

for

Donald Brown

Brian Hartline

1.6

1.10

I moved 2 trouble makers but feel he won the upside battle...

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Now is the time to buy because his value will never be lower for the next 4-5 years unless he washes out of football. Having seen people give up on guys like Cedric Benson and Antonio Bryant prematurely because of their off-field troubles, I would advise keeping Holmes if you own him. Talent earns endless opportunities and he will be back in your lineup producing by the middle of the season.

You have to be talking Super Deep Dynasty Leagues, right?

Cedric Benson was ranked 86, 38, 36, 42 and 16 in FBG scoring.... You would have had some Awesome patience and Roster room to wait 5 seasons to lock down a nice #2 RB for last year.... Sure he looks good for this upcoming season but, I think alot of us had plenty of time to jump on that train...

Same with Bryant - 1 Really good season out of 7.... I'd rather not stash such a guy.

You're missing the point. People often give up on players when they hit a rough patch. It's usually a mistake.Talent doesn't disappear overnight. Sure, you can cut Ricky Williams or Antonio Bryant when he gets into legal trouble, but he's just going to find his way back onto the field and make you regret it.

Same deal with Holmes. Now is the absolute worst time to sell him. He will get back onto the field and produce again. When that happens, people will realize that he's still a good player and his value will climb.

So Plaxico is still on your roster?

I still have Plaxico and Losman on my 52 man IDP roster

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Something was said to me today that I am still chewing on, "Holmes especially, and Cotch/Edwards to a lesser degree, might not be startable in fantasy leagues all of 2010"

As much as I wish this was not true, I think it could be dead on. It is difficult to imagine a series of events where an owner can start Holmes with confidence any given week.

Agree? Disagree?

 

[Bandite]

Holmes has the most talent of the 3.

I say Holmes's value goes from a Borderline WR1/WR2 fantasy player to a WR3.

While Braylon and Cotch both now go to WR4 and WR5 respectively

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

I sincerely believe fantasy owners don't pay enough attention to character issues, then wonder what happened to them when something jumps up and bites them in the butt.

 

[poopdawg]

Just gave up my 1.11 and massoquai for holmes and a third. I have the depth at wr and like his upside.

 

[Getinthemix]

Holmes has the most talent of the 3.

I say Holmes's value goes from a Borderline WR1/WR2 fantasy player to a WR3.

While Braylon and Cotch both now go to WR4 and WR5 respectively

Disagree. Braylon's combine numbers are better. His size/speed numbers are better. His best year is better. His draft position is a lot better. He has the "dropsies", but he has more talent, even including the "dropsies"

 

[coolnerd]

Something was said to me today that I am still chewing on, "Holmes especially, and Cotch/Edwards to a lesser degree, might not be startable in fantasy leagues all of 2010"As much as I wish this was not true, I think it could be dead on. It is difficult to imagine a series of events where an owner can start Holmes with confidence any given week. Agree? Disagree?

Think that the issue will be Sanchez. While the Jets threw less than any other team in the league, by trading for Edwards and Holmes it indicates that they have a desire to throw more. Even so-called running teams in today's NFL will throw 30 times a game ( only 6 teams did not in 2009, 2 of them were at 29.8). If Sanchez develops into a 60% passer 30 attempts will leave 18 catches to divide up in a given week. Assuming relative even distribution I could see three guys with 4 catches 55 yards. Depending your scoring system and league size that may or may not be worth anything to an owner. The good news for the Edward/Croth owner is that they will hae aat least four weeks with no Holmes at all and maybe a week or two before he is fully inegrated into the offense. After that my sense, is that all three will have weeks were if I did not start (insert Jets WR) that I wish I would have.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Something was said to me today that I am still chewing on, "Holmes especially, and Cotch/Edwards to a lesser degree, might not be startable in fantasy leagues all of 2010"As much as I wish this was not true, I think it could be dead on. It is difficult to imagine a series of events where an owner can start Holmes with confidence any given week. Agree? Disagree?

Think that the issue will be Sanchez. While the Jets threw less than any other team in the league, by trading for Edwards and Holmes it indicates that they have a desire to throw more. Even so-called running teams in today's NFL will throw 30 times a game ( only 6 teams did not in 2009, 2 of them were at 29.8). If Sanchez develops into a 60% passer 30 attempts will leave 18 catches to divide up in a given week. Assuming relative even distribution I could see three guys with 4 catches 55 yards. Depending your scoring system and league size that may or may not be worth anything to an owner. The good news for the Edward/Cotch owner is that they will have at least four weeks with no Holmes at all and maybe a week or two before he is fully integrated into the offense. After that my sense, is that all three will have weeks were if I did not start (insert Jets WR) that I wish I would have.

I agree. But, I do think Ryan will look to run the ball in the second to close out games. I expect each of the Jet WRs to have big weeks, but predictability will be difficult. Also, I am looking forward to seeing how Sanchez progresses in year two.

 

[coolnerd]

Something was said to me today that I am still chewing on, "Holmes especially, and Cotch/Edwards to a lesser degree, might not be startable in fantasy leagues all of 2010"As much as I wish this was not true, I think it could be dead on. It is difficult to imagine a series of events where an owner can start Holmes with confidence any given week. Agree? Disagree?

Think that the issue will be Sanchez. While the Jets threw less than any other team in the league, by trading for Edwards and Holmes it indicates that they have a desire to throw more. Even so-called running teams in today's NFL will throw 30 times a game ( only 6 teams did not in 2009, 2 of them were at 29.8). If Sanchez develops into a 60% passer 30 attempts will leave 18 catches to divide up in a given week. Assuming relative even distribution I could see three guys with 4 catches 55 yards. Depending your scoring system and league size that may or may not be worth anything to an owner. The good news for the Edward/Cotch owner is that they will have at least four weeks with no Holmes at all and maybe a week or two before he is fully integrated into the offense. After that my sense, is that all three will have weeks were if I did not start (insert Jets WR) that I wish I would have.

I agree. But, I do think Ryan will look to run the ball in the second to close out games. I expect each of the Jet WRs to have big weeks, but predictability will be difficult. Also, I am looking forward to seeing how Sanchez progresses in year two.

I think most coaches want to run the ball to close out a game that they are up. At the same time, there will be games that the Jets will need to throw to win, which they were not really able to do in 2009, but is more possible in 2010. I think at some point either performance or injury will probably make the crew more predictable than it seems in April, but this is one of the more intriguing fantasy situations going into the year.

 

[Buckna]

TradedHolmesMarshawn Lynch2.11forDonald BrownBrian Hartline1.61.10I moved 2 trouble makers but feel he won the upside battle...

You made out like a bandit. Based on their current market values and their high level of risk to be out the league in another year or two, I'm not sure I would trade the 1.6 + 1.10 for those two guys, much less add Donald Brown on top.

 

[Reaper]

Something was said to me today that I am still chewing on, "Holmes especially, and Cotch/Edwards to a lesser degree, might not be startable in fantasy leagues all of 2010"As much as I wish this was not true, I think it could be dead on. It is difficult to imagine a series of events where an owner can start Holmes with confidence any given week. Agree? Disagree?

I said in post 2 that Holmes was "dead to me" fantasy wise - yeah, reactionary at the time and overboard but, yeah, even as a Jets fan I'm not going to be chasing after any of these guys - Sometimes in this situation it's just best to grab the last one as late as you can....I'm starting to think that Cotchery could be the rock - The guy with the most experience with Sanchez, the guy most guaranteed to stay in NY long term and the guy who has sure hands and will probably be more of a possesion guy with more receptions... Lowest upside but, most consistent.It might drive owners nuts trying to chase points from Edwards / Holmes as each week goes by and 1 of em happens to catch the long TD of the week for juicy stats.

 

[purplehaze67]

I gave up 1.12 this morning for Holmes. PPR Dynasty league.

Just did the same in a Zealots (non PPR).

 

[Todem]

Majority says 1.10 or worse in rookie pick value here.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=528163

That's almost exactly what I gave up for him before the deadline last season....a 1.09 to be exact. And I still make that deal. Holmes is the best Jet WR....easy. He will become Sanchez's favorite target. I don't see much debate. Edwards has hands of stone.....Holmes is a play maker and can make all the tough receptions. A steal for the Jets. He just needs to behave.