Santonio Holmes (1 Viewer)

[3nOut]

If Holmes was not suspended, where would he be ranked? Would he be a FF WR2? Right now he's ranked pretty low but I am assuming that that is because of his suspension. What will his fantasy PPG be when he comes back? Hoe does that compare?

Not sure what to make of him. Too many targets to go around? Sanchez unproven at QB? Jets a run-first team? He is the most talented (IMO) WR on the Jets and seems to have an improved attitude. I think he will be targetted often when he returns, but does that warrant him as a WR2? If you don't already own him, will you be targetting him as someone to trade for around week 3 or 4?

 

[-jb-]

I think he'll be a very strong WR3 after he comes back. Flirting with WR2 status, but never getting there.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Things I believe this season...

- That the Jets are going to make every attempt to win each week with running and defense, and the pass will be an afterthought.

- That there's no real reason to assume Sanchez is able to make particularly effective use of a true #1 wideout.

- That there are plenty of viable targets for the Jets' presumably smallish number of passes to be spread around to.

In a full season, I'm not sure I'd project much more than 1000/6-7. In this offense, I see him as a Lee Evans boom or bust type, with way too much busting to feel confident using him as a weekly starter.

 

[David Yudkin]

If he weren't suspended, he'd probably still be in Pittsburgh.

As for the question, until Sanchez learns and gets more productive, I don't see any NYJ receiver having a lot of consistency or fantasy value (although I think Holmes will be the most productive once he comes back).

 

[Sabertooth]

He's the best they've got by a large margin. That said, I don't think Sanchez has the juice to tap his potential. WR3 and inconsistent.

 

[Clifford]

I think Holmes becomes an instant WR2 upon return.

 

[WFR]

I think Holmes becomes an instant WR2 upon return.

 

[Topes]

I think he'll be a very strong WR3 after he comes back. Flirting with WR2 status, but never getting there.

As a Holmes owner, I wish for better. But that's what I'm expecting. Built into that expectation is a modest improvement by Sanchez.

 

[Godsbrother]

He's the best they've got by a large margin. That said, I don't think Sanchez has the juice to tap his potential. WR3 and inconsistent.

I agree with this. Santonio could be WR#2 but I am not convinced Sanchez will get him the ball on a consistent basis.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

If he weren't suspended, he'd probably still be in Pittsburgh.

As for the question, until Sanchez learns and gets more productive, I don't see any NYJ receiver having a lot of consistency or fantasy value (although I think Holmes will be the most productive once he comes back).

Came in here to post exactly that.

 

[3nOut]

I think Holmes becomes an instant WR2 upon return.

So where do you think he would be ranked right now if he wan't suspended? Somewhere in the 13-16, 17-20, or 21-24 range?

 

[3nOut]

If he weren't suspended, he'd probably still be in Pittsburgh.

As for the question, until Sanchez learns and gets more productive, I don't see any NYJ receiver having a lot of consistency or fantasy value (although I think Holmes will be the most productive once he comes back).

Came in here to post exactly that.

Just to be funny? But that doesn't answer the question, Leeroy. He was suspended, and he isn't on the Steelers.

 

[Clifford]

I think Holmes becomes an instant WR2 upon return.

So where do you think he would be ranked right now if he wan't suspended? Somewhere in the 13-16, 17-20, or 21-24 range?

Always depends on who you're drafting against. Jets passing game is up in the air. (no pun intended)

 

[Spark026]

Target in dynasty league. Will try to trade for him before week 3.

 

[Sabertooth]

He gets dinged in value because of Sanchez. And yet Fitzgerald has a worse QB and his value is sustaining.

 

[Cenobite]

He gets dinged in value because of Sanchez. And yet Fitzgerald has a worse QB and his value is sustaining.

That is because Fitzgerald is a far better receiver than Holmes.

 

[Sabertooth]

He gets dinged in value because of Sanchez. And yet Fitzgerald has a worse QB and his value is sustaining.

That is because Fitzgerald is a far better receiver than Holmes.

Do you care to unpack that a little bit? Why does it matter? I'm not saying Holmes is awesome, he's only got one Super Bowl MVP award. But he has improved every year he's been in the league. Fitzgerald is great. But he's got a guy throwing him the ball that couldn't keep Brady Quinn on the bench. Just saying, seems like a double standard and people seeing what they want to see.

 

[cstu]

He gets dinged in value because of Sanchez. And yet Fitzgerald has a worse QB and his value is sustaining.

That is because Fitzgerald is a far better receiver than Holmes.

Do you care to unpack that a little bit? Why does it matter? I'm not saying Holmes is awesome, he's only got one Super Bowl MVP award. But he has improved every year he's been in the league. Fitzgerald is great. But he's got a guy throwing him the ball that couldn't keep Brady Quinn on the bench. Just saying, seems like a double standard and people seeing what they want to see.

Fitzgerald is ranked too high but he's too good of a WR to rank much lower, even with the scrub who is throwing him the ball.

 

[cstu]

He gets dinged in value because of Sanchez. And yet Fitzgerald has a worse QB and his value is sustaining.

That is because Fitzgerald is a far better receiver than Holmes.

Do you care to unpack that a little bit? Why does it matter? I'm not saying Holmes is awesome, he's only got one Super Bowl MVP award. But he has improved every year he's been in the league. Fitzgerald is great. But he's got a guy throwing him the ball that couldn't keep Brady Quinn on the bench. Just saying, seems like a double standard and people seeing what they want to see.

Fitzgerald is ranked too high but he's too good of a WR to rank much lower, even with the scrub who is throwing him the ball.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

He gets dinged in value because of Sanchez. And yet Fitzgerald has a worse QB and his value is sustaining.

That is because Fitzgerald is a far better receiver than Holmes.

Do you care to unpack that a little bit? Why does it matter? I'm not saying Holmes is awesome, he's only got one Super Bowl MVP award. But he has improved every year he's been in the league. Fitzgerald is great. But he's got a guy throwing him the ball that couldn't keep Brady Quinn on the bench. Just saying, seems like a double standard and people seeing what they want to see.

Anderson sucks because he makes idiotic decisions and horrible throws that kill his team. Despite that, he will have every opportunity to present a favorable opportunity for his receivers to excel. He does have the physical tools to get the ball to his receiver anywhere on the field at any time, and should get lots of opportunities to do so as his team fights to stay in ballgames with the long ball and other ways of keeping the ball in the hands of their best assets...the receivers.Sanchez? He may still sort of suck for those same reasons...or he may be improving on the mistake proneness. But either way, the Jets are in a position where they're not going to allow these things to get in the way of the pursuit of victory. With a world class defense and run game, it doesn't MATTER if he's got the tools to get the ball to his receiver anywhere on the field at any time. He's not going to be allowed to try it. He's going to be asked to game-manage and make the safest decisions he can. This isn't going to give his guys nearly the opportunity to create numbers that the ARZ guys are going to get.

 

[redBourne]

He gets dinged in value because of Sanchez. And yet Fitzgerald has a worse QB and his value is sustaining.

That is because Fitzgerald is a far better receiver than Holmes.

Do you care to unpack that a little bit? Why does it matter? I'm not saying Holmes is awesome, he's only got one Super Bowl MVP award. But he has improved every year he's been in the league. Fitzgerald is great. But he's got a guy throwing him the ball that couldn't keep Brady Quinn on the bench. Just saying, seems like a double standard and people seeing what they want to see.

Lets assume that Fitz and Santonio are at least close to the same skill level. I truly believe that the Jets will have a significantly higher run to pass ratio just because that's the football they believe in and their team is built around it. The Cards, on the other hand, will not. They will still try to feed their best weapon on offense because it's the best chance they have at winning games. Now add into the fact that I believe Fitz is the #2 wideout in the league. Part of an ELITE tier that I would consider could put good stats regardless of the qb or team. I don't consider Holmes to be a part of this tier.

 

[Buclove]

What did Holmes do in Pittsburg? he sucks. He made a great catch in the Super Bowl and everyone goes nuts over him. Fact is he was getting out played in Pittsburg by Wallace and Ward.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

What did Holmes do in Pittsburg? he sucks. He made a great catch in the Super Bowl and everyone goes nuts over him. Fact is he was getting out played in Pittsburg by Wallace and Ward.

Oy.

 

[cstu]

Target in dynasty league. Will try to trade for him before week 3.

Why would you wait since his value is going to get higher as his suspension gets closer to ending. BTW, I received a 2011 1st and 3rd for him a few days ago.

 

[Grahamburn]

What did Holmes do in Pittsburg? he sucks. He made a great catch in the Super Bowl and everyone goes nuts over him. Fact is he was getting out played in Pittsburg by Wallace and Ward.

First post here? You should read more, post less.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Target in dynasty league. Will try to trade for him before week 3.

I just gave up Felix Jones to get him in my dyansty. (disclaimer: I know nobody cares about my team, but just posting this as an example of what he's going for)

 

[34=Sweetness]

It's a shame he was suspended over something as harmless as marijuana, but that's a countrywide issue moreso than NFL. ANyways, he's a very strong WR3, but I can't see the Jets doing much to put him in any higher tier. I'm dealing him for picks to a player who needs a WR when he comes back in my dynasty.

 

[Pots]

I think if you're betting on Holmes to give your team WR2 production upon return, you need to get better depth at the position. Could he? Sure. Any starting WR has the potential for those numbers. But chances are he's likely an inconsistant WR3 production or bye-week filler and there will be little confidence in starting him first few weeks back.

Run-First team with a QB who passed for 2400 yards and 12 TDs in 15 starts last season whom he's never played a down for yet and chemsitry is a question mark. Chips are stacked against him being an immediate jump-start contributer on any FF squad.

 

[Clifford]

He gets dinged in value because of Sanchez. And yet Fitzgerald has a worse QB and his value is sustaining.

That is because Fitzgerald is a far better receiver than Holmes.

Do you care to unpack that a little bit? Why does it matter? I'm not saying Holmes is awesome, he's only got one Super Bowl MVP award. But he has improved every year he's been in the league. Fitzgerald is great. But he's got a guy throwing him the ball that couldn't keep Brady Quinn on the bench. Just saying, seems like a double standard and people seeing what they want to see.

Brady doesn't need anyone's help keeping him on the bench. He does just fine.

 

[Clifford]

I think if you're betting on Holmes to give your team WR2 production upon return, you need to get better depth at the position. Could he? Sure. Any starting WR has the potential for those numbers. But chances are he's likely an inconsistant WR3 production or bye-week filler and there will be little confidence in starting him first few weeks back.Run-First team with a QB who passed for 2400 yards and 12 TDs in 15 starts last season whom he's never played a down for yet and chemsitry is a question mark. Chips are stacked against him being an immediate jump-start contributer on any FF squad.

I think people are crazy to not expect the Jets to pass a lot more. Who did they lose to in the playoffs and why? They care about winning more than about how they do it.

 

[cstu]

I think if you're betting on Holmes to give your team WR2 production upon return, you need to get better depth at the position. Could he? Sure. Any starting WR has the potential for those numbers. But chances are he's likely an inconsistant WR3 production or bye-week filler and there will be little confidence in starting him first few weeks back.Run-First team with a QB who passed for 2400 yards and 12 TDs in 15 starts last season whom he's never played a down for yet and chemsitry is a question mark. Chips are stacked against him being an immediate jump-start contributer on any FF squad.

I think people are crazy to not expect the Jets to pass a lot more. Who did they lose to in the playoffs and why? They care about winning more than about how they do it.

Sanchez threw the ball 30 times against the Colts in the playoffs and had a good day passing. They lost because they allowed 30 points and could only rush for 83 yards on 26 carries.

 

[Clifford]

Right, because they couldn't keep pace when their defense finally let them down a bit and couldn't come back. So what do you think they're going to try and improve this season? Their first-ranked defense, their first-ranked running game, or their 31st-ranked passing game?

This isn't complicated stuff folks.

 

[Ralph Furley]

I see him as WR2. Jets front office/coaching staff is in love with him. It is pretty well known that either he or BE will not be signed next year, so there is a real incentive for him to make an immediate impact. The only thing IMO that's holding him back is Sanchez, but he should be able to post 80 yds week in week out, with a TD sprinkled in every other week or so, not to mention the occasional 100+ multi-TD game.

 

[ponchsox]

I think if you're betting on Holmes to give your team WR2 production upon return, you need to get better depth at the position. Could he? Sure. Any starting WR has the potential for those numbers. But chances are he's likely an inconsistant WR3 production or bye-week filler and there will be little confidence in starting him first few weeks back.Run-First team with a QB who passed for 2400 yards and 12 TDs in 15 starts last season whom he's never played a down for yet and chemsitry is a question mark. Chips are stacked against him being an immediate jump-start contributer on any FF squad.

I think people are crazy to not expect the Jets to pass a lot more. Who did they lose to in the playoffs and why? They care about winning more than about how they do it.

Passing more = more INTs for Dirty Sanchez. I wouldn't be suprised to see the Jets start off 0-2.

 

[da_budman]

Somewhere between wr 24 and wr 30 is my guess. He is definitely the best wr on a team that doesn't really want to throw the ball and usually doesn't have to because of their defense.

 

[Clifford]

Right, because teams always look to repeat exactly what they did last year, and always accomplish that.

 

[cstu]

I see him as WR2. Jets front office/coaching staff is in love with him. It is pretty well known that either he or BE will not be signed next year, so there is a real incentive for him to make an immediate impact. The only thing IMO that's holding him back is Sanchez, but he should be able to post 80 yds week in week out, with a TD sprinkled in every other week or so, not to mention the occasional 100+ multi-TD game.

He wasn't able to do this with the Steelers so why would he be able to do it now? He's only had two 2 TD games in his career and only had over 5 TD's in a season once (all during Ben's 32 TD season).

 

[Traders2001]

The guy never is nt a TD maker , not even close ...

He is at best a #3 wr in FF , nothing exciting ...

Theres another big knock against him is that he has Sanchez as a QB ( To me sanchez is much much worst then Leinart so good luck santonio )..

 

[gsmayes]

Holmes was at best an inconsistent #2 fantasy WR at Pittsburgh, and that's with them throwing a ton the last couple years. I don't see how he's a #2 WR this season on a run-first team with a young QB and plenty of other receiving options. He's a low end #3 WR that might have a big week for you every now again or bye week filler.

 

[Clifford]

Holmes was at best an inconsistent #2 fantasy WR at Pittsburgh, and that's with them throwing a ton the last couple years. I don't see how he's a #2 WR this season on a run-first team with a young QB and plenty of other receiving options. He's a low end #3 WR that might have a big week for you every now again or bye week filler.

OK, a WR2 in a 12-team league should rank between the 13th and the 24th receiver. Last year he ranked 16th out of all wide receivers in non-ppr, standard scoring (16th in .5 ppr too), which not only made him a WR2 but an above average WR2. So if you have another defense of why he was "at best an inconsistent #2" last year I'd like to hear it.As for consistency, keeping in mind he is being judged as a WR2, I seriously doubt you can find a WR2 who was more consistent

(just posting yards and TDs for ease)

131 1

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18

52

50

104

59

bye

93

88

86

74 1

149 1

93

77

86 1

5 1

after the bye he was the picture of consistency

So thus far the arguments against him have been

The Jets are looking to repeat as the league 31st ranked defense

Sanchez is as bad as Matt Leinart

Holmes isn't a WR2, despite finishing as a better-than-average WR2 in all formats

nice reasoning

 

[Buckna]

Target in dynasty league. Will try to trade for him before week 3.

I just gave up Felix Jones to get him in my dyansty. (disclaimer: I know nobody cares about my team, but just posting this as an example of what he's going for)

Traded Pierre Thomas for him last week. Saw him swapped for a late 1st in a non-ppr, heavy RB league a week ago. Traded the #8 pick in a rookie draft for him back in May.

 

[Sabertooth]

Target in dynasty league. Will try to trade for him before week 3.

I just gave up Felix Jones to get him in my dyansty. (disclaimer: I know nobody cares about my team, but just posting this as an example of what he's going for)

Good move on your part. Felix is probably never going to live up to the immense hype in dynasty.

 

[wiersface]

If Holmes can come back and somehow get 55 rec for 850 yds and 4-5 tds in twelve games, I will be more than happy to start him on bye weeks

That's about 4.6 rec, 70 yds per game sprinkle in a td every now and again and that's pretty solid ppr bench numbers.

 

[-jb-]

Holmes was at best an inconsistent #2 fantasy WR at Pittsburgh, and that's with them throwing a ton the last couple years. I don't see how he's a #2 WR this season on a run-first team with a young QB and plenty of other receiving options. He's a low end #3 WR that might have a big week for you every now again or bye week filler.

OK, a WR2 in a 12-team league should rank between the 13th and the 24th receiver. Last year he ranked 16th out of all wide receivers in non-ppr, standard scoring (16th in .5 ppr too), which not only made him a WR2 but an above average WR2. So if you have another defense of why he was "at best an inconsistent #2" last year I'd like to hear it.As for consistency, keeping in mind he is being judged as a WR2, I seriously doubt you can find a WR2 who was more consistent

(just posting yards and TDs for ease)

131 1

83

18

52

50

104

59

bye

93

88

86

74 1

149 1

93

77

86 1

5 1

after the bye he was the picture of consistency

So thus far the arguments against him have been

The Jets are looking to repeat as the league 31st ranked defense

Sanchez is as bad as Matt Leinart

Holmes isn't a WR2, despite finishing as a better-than-average WR2 in all formats

nice reasoning

Steelers had 4,148 pass yards last year.Holmes had 1,248 yards last year.

Holmes therefore had 30% of the Steelers receiving production.

The Steelers had 28 pass TDs last year.

Holmes had 5 TDs last year.

Holmes therefore had 18% of the Steelers pass TD production

Jets had 2,380 pass yards last year.

If we assume Holmes gets 30% of that, it would be 714 yards.

If we assume that the Jets can improve their pass production by 25%, Holmes would have 893 yards.

Jets had 12 pass TDs last year.

If we assume Holmes gets 18% of the Jets pass TD production, he would have 2 TDs.

If we assume that the Jets can improve their pass production by 25%, Holmes would have 3 TDs.

So, if Holmes comes in at the same participation level for the Jets as he had for the Steelers, and the Jets improve their passing game by 25%, then Holmes finishes at 893/3, or 107 points. 107 points is WR34.

If Holmes were to be a WR2 (WR24 or better), he would need to produce 129 points. Again, assuming that Holmes contribution percentage remains constant, then the Jets would need to improve their passing game by 40%.

Therefore, I think the "reasoning" is sound.

25% increase in pass production, Holmes is WR34.

40% increase in pass production, Holmes is WR24.

As always, the answer is usually in the middle.

 

[Clifford]

I think Sanchez can do better than 25% improvement from rookie to sophomore. I also think there is a strong chance that the receiver pecking order changes from last year to this year. You're also assuming that his role stays exactly the same on a new team with different receiving options.

agree to disagree

 

[-jb-]

I think Sanchez can do better than 25% improvement from rookie to sophomore. I also think there is a strong chance that the receiver pecking order changes from last year to this year. You're also assuming that his role stays exactly the same on a new team with different receiving options.agree to disagree

Sanchez would need to do at least 40% better to make Holmes a WR2. Do you think he can improve that much? We can certainly agree to disagree if you do. Regarding Holmes' role changing, he was the #1 WR for Pitt, averaging 30% of the receiving production. The top 10 FF WRs average the same contribution of 30%. Here are the guys that averaged more:Andre - 34%Austin - 31%White - 32%Rice - 32%Marshall - 31%I just can't imagine the needle moving enough to warrant a big swing in production for the guy when the best WR in the league only averages 4% more in contribution.

 

[Ralph Furley]

I see him as WR2. Jets front office/coaching staff is in love with him. It is pretty well known that either he or BE will not be signed next year, so there is a real incentive for him to make an immediate impact. The only thing IMO that's holding him back is Sanchez, but he should be able to post 80 yds week in week out, with a TD sprinkled in every other week or so, not to mention the occasional 100+ multi-TD game.

He wasn't able to do this with the Steelers so why would he be able to do it now? He's only had two 2 TD games in his career and only had over 5 TD's in a season once (all during Ben's 32 TD season).

Maybe so, but I feel he has an incentive to perform, Sanchez will be looking for him a ton and I believe the Jets want to get him the ball. Either way, I see him mid level WR2, which is about top 20 in a 12 man league. We will see....

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

A good buy low for this year, but I'm not so sure he's a good buy low in dynasty leagues. He hasn't shown very much intelligence and his desire for weed seems to outweigh his desire for football. That my friends is a Molotov cocktail.

 

[Khalua83]

one good note is that him and braylon are both playin for a contract. i feel he will win that battle and they will let edwards walk....so going foward he will be the number 1

 

[redBourne]

I think Sanchez can do better than 25% improvement from rookie to sophomore. I also think there is a strong chance that the receiver pecking order changes from last year to this year. You're also assuming that his role stays exactly the same on a new team with different receiving options.agree to disagree

Sanchez would need to do at least 40% better to make Holmes a WR2. Do you think he can improve that much? We can certainly agree to disagree if you do. Regarding Holmes' role changing, he was the #1 WR for Pitt, averaging 30% of the receiving production. The top 10 FF WRs average the same contribution of 30%. Here are the guys that averaged more:Andre - 34%Austin - 31%White - 32%Rice - 32%Marshall - 31%I just can't imagine the needle moving enough to warrant a big swing in production for the guy when the best WR in the league only averages 4% more in contribution.

Awesome. I was considering making a deal for Holmes with the possibility that he would finish strong as a #2 down the stretch. I'm backing away now.