Sebastian Janikowski - Was he worth a 1st rd pick? (1 Viewer)

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

I don't see how Janikowski makes the HOF, so can't answer that. 

Well, joke's on you -- he already did, with literally one foot getting in the door.

His shoe that he used to kick and tie the all-time distance FG of 63 yards was put in, along with Blanda's and Dempsey's (and, I'm assuming, Akers' and Elam's). Not sure they removed it when Prater beat it by a yard in 2013.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

No. For the exact same reason that you'd never draft a kicker first in your fantasy league. It's shocking that any fantasy players would not get this,.

Sorry, I don't see much real-life correlation between football and fantasy football. The NFL isn't a redraft league. You don't get a point per reception, or points for rushing for 100 yards.You can play defense in the NFL. It's a pretend game loosely based on a real one.

Fantasy football is more like golf. You play by yourself, and compare scores with other people who are playing at the same time. You can't hurt your opponent, and they can't hurt you. Whoever did the best "won." 

Yes, the consensus is that kickers are interchangeable and worthless. But plenty of NFL coaches have lost their jobs over not making the playoffs, and those teams have often missed the postseason by one game. Now factor in how many games they lost due to poor kicking and you can see how they're undervalued in the real game. Execs get hired and fired over kickers (indirectly).

The Patriots don't go cheap on a kicker, and Vinatieri won two rings with pressure kicks. They didn't pick them in the 1st, of course. But the Raiders were trying to solidify an important position, and they did that for 15+ years. Could they have done as well or better by rotating kickers like everyone else does? We don't know, anymore than we know who they would have drafted with that pick.

What we do know is Janikowski hasn't been the reason for their failures. In an era where kickers cost teams games ALL THE TIME, the Raiders have basically avoided that trap. 

Yes, fans would be upset at a team for doing that because it's a big risk. But he's still here, so maybe they got lucky. Or maybe they saw stability and wanted it. Either way, he doesn't cost them games and he's been a steady presence at a position that often has a lot of variables. So I consider him "worth it" in hindsight.

 

[spider321]

Everyone who voted "yes", please block me.

I'd rather not see your posts about football, real or fantasy, in the future.

Thanks.

 

[Nugget]

I'd rather have Seabass over Sly Morris. He sucked. 

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Week 1 both the panthers and cardinals lost the game on game ending kicks. The browns lost a game in OT where their kicker missed kicks. Having a valuable kicker is invaluable. Spending a 1st on it might be wrong but i think people don't respect the position.

I'm a ravens though and i know how much Justin Tucker has done for the team.

 

[Garrett]

Everyone who voted "yes", please block me.

I'd rather not see your posts about football, real or fantasy, in the future.

Thanks.

Don't act like a kid.

 

[One]

Yes.  Its not even close.  Period

 

[CalBear]

Week 1 both the panthers and cardinals lost the game on game ending kicks. The browns lost a game in OT where their kicker missed kicks. Having a valuable kicker is invaluable. Spending a 1st on it might be wrong but i think people don't respect the position.

I'm a ravens though and i know how much Justin Tucker has done for the team.

You mean Justin Tucker, the kicker the Ravens signed as an undrafted free agent in 2012?

That's exactly the point. Seabass has not provided significant value over replacement-level players.

 

[NREC34]

On one hand I think they would've picked a stiff anyway so it was a good pick. 

But on the other hand think they could have gotten him much later anyway. 

I'm torn. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think if a team could use a crystal ball to pick out a kicker that was going to be as good/clutch as guys like Tucker, Gostowski, Vinatieri then they would be worth a 1st round pick.

Seabass is not one of those guys though, and while I totally disagree with Spider's point that there is no difference between a great kicker and an average kicker, I do agree that there is little difference between Seabass and an average kicker.

 

[CalBear]

Vinatieri isn't "clutch." He's just a solid kicker who happens to have had a few opportunities to kick in critical situations. 

Guess which kicker holds the record for most missed Super Bowl kicks?

The Patriots loved thought he provided so much value that they let him walk to their biggest competitor.

 

[[scooter]]

He would have been available in the 2nd, 3rd, and probably 4th rounds. But that's the Raiders for you.

The old Raiders cleverly selected Bo Jackson in the 7th round of the 1987 NFL draft. The 2000 Raiders would have traded up to draft Jackson 1st overall.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

You mean Justin Tucker, the kicker the Ravens signed as an undrafted free agent in 2012?

That's exactly the point. Seabass has not provided significant value over replacement-level players.

I think that is the point, but not necessarily the one you're making.

Sure, you could hope to hit on that undrafted free agent and save yourself some money for a few years (when his first contract would be up you'd have to pay market value). While you're looking for him, you're going through a litany of scrubs, missing kicks, costing you games (maybe the playoffs) and coaches getting fired. That dead coach money could easily outweigh the money you save on a cheap kicker, and you've hurt the team with some agonizing losses over a period of years.

And maybe you never find a Justin Tucker at all. Maybe you stick with the cheap kicker strategy and always have this problem. More losses, more coaching changes. If you did find a Tucker, you lucked out. But what about the cost in not having him all those years?

With Janikowski, the kicker didn't cause any of that. You didn't have to play the free agent lottery, hoping you came across a solid kicker and losing games for x years if you didn't. If you could eliminate all of that with one 1st round draft pick, I think that's worth it. I'm sure other people would rather take the risk with the scrub-of-the-month kicker and hope he's the guy. But if you end up 9-7 instead of 10-6, and you miss out on the playoffs because of it, and the coach loses his job, how much money did that cost the team in lost revenue and dead money? 

I'm not even saying he's HoF worthy. I know you *could* pick up someone reliable off the street. I'm saying finding that reliable street guy better happen fast, or it's going to cost the team a lot more than a 1st round pick and the money associated with it. 

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Vinatieri isn't "clutch." He's just a solid kicker who happens to have had a few opportunities to kick in critical situations. 

Guess which kicker holds the record for most missed Super Bowl kicks?

The Patriots loved thought he provided so much value that they let him walk to their biggest competitor.

All kickers miss kicks. Isn't making the critical ones what makes someone clutch?

 

[petekrum]

Don't act like a kid.

Why? He's absolutely correct. 

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

He would have been available in the 2nd, 3rd, and probably 4th rounds. But that's the Raiders for you.

The old Raiders cleverly selected Bo Jackson in the 7th round of the 1987 NFL draft. The 2000 Raiders would have traded up to draft Jackson 1st overall.

This is the argument that makes the most sense to me. And it does actually have a fantasy football correlation. If you have a late-round guy you really like and target in your drafts, you don't take him in the 2nd round. The whole point is to get them where they way out-produce their draft spot. 

I still think Janikowski was worth it, but it's hard to argue that having him as a 3rd round pick was almost as likely and would have been much better value. So I see the point here.

 

[petekrum]

Go back and look at where the top kickers in the league over the past 15 years were drafted. 4th round or later and many were UFA's. No matter how you slice it this was a bad choice. 

 

[Chaka]

How do you not understand that there is very little difference between a very good kicker, and an average kicker?

I am not arguing in favor of Sebass as a first rounder but I am not sure some of the arguments against stand up to scrutiny.  

How much difference is there between a very good player at any position and an average player at any position?  Is it measurable or just a matter of perception?  If you want to compare best all time players like Walter Payton, Jerry Rice, Dan Marino etc. vs average players like Chris Ivory, Michael Floyd or Jeff Hostetler the difference becomes obvious but I don't think we are talking about those stark differences here.

The thing that Sebass brings to the table that sets him apart from most of his peers is that he extends the potential scoring distance by a couple yards over almost any kicker in NFL history.  He hasn't been super accurate and has been on some truly terrible teams but his range has a value above that of his peers. Can't that be viewed as the difference between very good and average?  Enough to justify the draft position?  Not sure but it is a value add that should be considered.

 

[CalBear]

All kickers miss kicks. Isn't making the critical ones what makes someone clutch?

I'm not satisfied with n=2 for defining characteristics of a player.

Vinatieri has made 7 of 10 Super Bowl kicks, well below his career average of 84.7%. Though n=10 is also not large enough. I'd be willing to bet that if you let Vinatieri kick a million Super Bowl kicks, he'd make about 847,000 of them. plus or minus a couple of percentage points. He's a very good kicker. 

Janikowski would make about 802,000 of them at his career rate of 80.2%. Which is also not bad, but isn't anything special. Since 2000 when he came into the league, 44 kickers have a success rate of 80% or higher on at least 100 kicks. 24 of those came into the league since 2000, including Neil Rackers who started the same year as Seabass as an undrafted free agent. How many more games has Oakland won because it had Janikowski instead of Rackers? Or any of the 23 other options they may have picked up at K?

Adding to these stats: Guess which NFL kicker is #2 all time in missed game-winning FGs with 12?

 

[dickey moe]

Go to kicker for over a decade? Sure.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

https://twitter.com/VicTafur/status/782616702236266496

Tucker vs SeaBass stats

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Why? He's absolutely correct. 

No, he is completely, utterly, and undeniably wrong.

If those who voted yes blocked spider, they would no longer see his posts. However, unless spider blocks them in return, he would still posts from the yes crowd throughout threads. 

 

[petekrum]

No, he is completely, utterly, and undeniably wrong.

If those who voted yes blocked spider, they would no longer see his posts. However, unless spider blocks them in return, he would still posts from the yes crowd throughout threads. 

That wasn't his point.

 

[squistion]

Adam Schefter‏ @AdamSchefter 7m7 minutes ago

Raiders informed kicker Sebastian Janikowski today that they do not plan to bring him back for the 2018 season, per source. An 18-year run with Raiders comes to an end.

 

[petekrum]

Adam Schefter‏ @AdamSchefter 7m7 minutes ago

Raiders informed kicker Sebastian Janikowski today that they do not plan to bring him back for the 2018 season, per source. An 18-year run with Raiders comes to an end.

And 18 years later it was still a stupid pick.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

And 18 years later it was still a stupid pick.

Definitely debatable whether it was smart to go K in the first round -- no question he likely would have been available later -- but I don't think it was stupid.

Apologies if it renders badly (I don't know how to format a table on this site), but below are the picks made in the 2000 draft between the Raiders taking Seabass #17 overall and their next pick in Round 2 (47th overall). I don't see any "no-brainers" (acknowledging the luxury of 20/20 hindsight, but I think it's salient here that we actually know how these players turned out).

There could be a case that Bulluck, Chad Clifton, and Mike Brown are better choices given the more central nature of their position to the game, the delta of play between them and the next guy (vs Jano and the next best K), the Pro-Bowl caliber of play, and overall longevity they had. But it's far from a no-brainer in terms of impact and utility to the team. An intangible is the fact that the Raiders did not have to worry about the position for 17 years, which is pretty damned meaningful, given that they could focus picks/acquisitions elsewhere across that entire time span.

Like it or not, he's the likeliest candidate for HOF on that list as well (and he already has one foot in the door), which I think in itself makes the pick worthwhile. There are four kickers inducted, and only two were pure Ks (Blanda and Groza also played QB and T, respectively). Pat Kirwan once made a solid case for Seabass for HOF in comparing his stats to Stenerud: Janikowski has an NFL record 55 field goals over 50 yards (along with 7 other NFL records); Stenerud had 17. Janikowski has 414 field goals with an 80.4 percent success rate; Stenerud has 373 field goals at 66.8 percent. While Mortensen's totals are a little gaudier, he played in over 100 more games and his success rate percentage is lower (perhaps expected given the additional number of games). 

IMHO, I think the pick was a good one in its own right, and also in relation to who else the Raiders could have gone with in that draft.

Rnd.    Pick #    NFL team        Player        Pos.    College
1    17    Oakland Raiders        Sebastian Janikowski K    Florida State
1    18    New York Jets        Chad Pennington QB    Marshall
1    19    Seattle Seahawks    Shaun Alexander RB    Alabama
1    20    Detroit Lions        Stockar McDougleOT    Oklahoma
1    21    Kansas City Chiefs    Sylvester MorrisWR    Jackson State
1    22    Seattle Seahawks    Chris McIntosh     OT    Wisconsin
1    23    Carolina Panthers    Rashard AndersonCB    Jackson State
1    24    San Francisco 49ers    Ahmed Plummer     CB    Ohio State
1    25    Minnesota Vikings    Chris Hovan     DT    Boston College
1    26    Buffalo Bills        Erik Flowers     DE    Arizona State
1    27    New York Jets        Anthony Becht     TE    West Virginia
1    28    Indianapolis Colts    Rob Morris     LB    BYU
1    29    Jacksonville Jaguars    R. Jay Soward     WR    USC
1    30    Tennessee Titans    Keith Bulluck †    LB    Syracuse
1    31    St. Louis Rams        Trung Canidate     RB    Arizona
2    32    Cleveland Browns    Dennis NorthcuttWR    Arizona
2    33    New Orleans Saints    Darren Howard     DE    Kansas State
2    34    Cincinnati Bengals    Mark Roman     S    LSU
2    35    San Francisco 49ers    John EngelbergerDE    Virginia Tech
2    36    Philadelphia Eagles    Todd Pinkston     WR    Southern Miss
2    37    Atlanta Falcons        Travis Claridge G    USC
2    38    Pittsburgh Steelers    Marvel Smith †    OT    Arizona State
2    39    Chicago Bears        Mike Brown †    SS    Nebraska
2    40    Denver Broncos        Ian Gold †    LB    Michigan
2    41    Arizona Cardinals    Raynoch ThompsonLB    Tennessee
2    42    New York Giants    Cornelius Griffin     DT    Alabama
2    43    San Diego Chargers    Rogers Beckett     SS    Marshall
2    44    Green Bay Packers    Chad Clifton †    OT    Tennessee
2    45    Denver Broncos        Kenoy Kennedy     SS    Arkansas
2    46    New England Patriots    Adrian Klemm     OT    Hawaii
2    47    Oakland Raiders        Jerry Porter     WR    West Virginia

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Many are failing to realize the Raiders are a business and a brand, not a fantasy hobby.  It was a great pick at the time, and only gets better in hindsight.  The Polish Cannon, probably the only Raider I can name of any significance over the past 15 years.  

 

[Anarchy99]

Not going to repost everything from back when this thread started but to summarize:

1) The opportunity to draft an impact player in the first round far exceeds taking a kicker at that spot. 

2) Along those lines, way easier to find a top kicker much later or even from undrafted players. 

3) Over his career, was Sea Bass really that much better than the other kickers? I don’t mean over his career, I mean year to year. I don’t believe he was. So if the option was having multiple other kickers over the same 18 years and their numbers would have added up to more made kicks, then the Raiders actually hurt the team by sticking with SJ.

4) I would have to look up his salaries, but I recall SJ was at times the highest paid kicker n the league and usually near the top of the market.

5) Factoring in the draft pick, his performance, and his pay, I personally don’t think any of that justifies his draft pick.

6) I can’t speak to things that go into a team that is not on the field. If there were additionally marketing opportunities or merchandise sales that brought the Raiders more money, then maybe they made some extra revenue. I am guessing a kicker doesn’t put fannies in the seats, but maybe I’m wrong.

 7) IMO, the only real compelling argument to SJ being worth a first round pick is that they got 18 years of service from him, which clearly doesn’t happen much. To me that shouldn’t trump the other things, but that led him to set the team scoring record. That doesn’t mean much to me, but it might to others.

 

[Arodin]

This sounds like the real-football version of fantasy football's streaming QB debate.

If I can sign various kickers as UDFAs and come close to the production generated by Janikowski early, then he was a wasted pick.  On the other side is the argument that certainty and confidence in a position have value, but how much is difficult to quantify.

 

[CalBear]

This sounds like the real-football version of fantasy football's streaming QB debate.

If I can sign various kickers as UDFAs and come close to the production generated by Janikowski early, then he was a wasted pick.  On the other side is the argument that certainty and confidence in a position have value, but how much is difficult to quantify.

Certainty in the kicker position has virtually zero value, as there are a ton of completely reasonable kickers sitting out there without a job. Including, for example, Georgio Tavecchio (Go Bears!) who'd been on the Raiders' practice squad for several years. Tampa Bay decided to fire Nick Folk this year, and picked up Patrick Murray midseason; Murray made 19 of 23 field goals. Dan Bailey went out for Dallas and they brought in Mike Nugent, who made 7 of 9 while Bailey was hurt, got cut, and later in the season made 4 of 4 for Chicago. 

You don't worry about the kicker position. If it's not working you go get a new one.

 

[DocHolliday]

Not going to repost everything from back when this thread started but to summarize:

1) The opportunity to draft an impact player in the first round far exceeds taking a kicker at that spot. 

2) Along those lines, way easier to find a top kicker much later or even from undrafted players. 

3) Over his career, was Sea Bass really that much better than the other kickers? I don’t mean over his career, I mean year to year. I don’t believe he was. So if the option was having multiple other kickers over the same 18 years and their numbers would have added up to more made kicks, then the Raiders actually hurt the team by sticking with SJ.

4) I would have to look up his salaries, but I recall SJ was at times the highest paid kicker n the league and usually near the top of the market.

5) Factoring in the draft pick, his performance, and his pay, I personally don’t think any of that justifies his draft pick.

6) I can’t speak to things that go into a team that is not on the field. If there were additionally marketing opportunities or merchandise sales that brought the Raiders more money, then maybe they made some extra revenue. I am guessing a kicker doesn’t put fannies in the seats, but maybe I’m wrong.

 7) IMO, the only real compelling argument to SJ being worth a first round pick is that they got 18 years of service from him, which clearly doesn’t happen much. To me that shouldn’t trump the other things, but that led him to set the team scoring record. That doesn’t mean much to me, but it might to others.

And the short answer is still no. 

 

[squistion]

Adam Schefter

https://www.facebook.com/AdamSchefter/posts/1774850679234232

Raiders Statement on Sebastian Janikowski:

"The Raider Nation salutes Sebastian Janikowski as the sun sets on his illustrious career with the Oakland Raiders. He joined the team as a surprise first-round pick in the 2000 Draft and finishes his time in Oakland as one of the greatest or perhaps the greatest kicker in pro football history. His powerful left leg produced an NFL-record 55 field goals of 50-or-more yards. The motto 'Once a Raider, Always a Raider' has never been more true as his 18-year career makes him the longest-tenured player in Raiders history. Sebastian, his wife, Lori, and their three children will always be a loved and treasured part of the Raiders family." - Mark Davis

 

[petekrum]

Adam Schefter

https://www.facebook.com/AdamSchefter/posts/1774850679234232

Raiders Statement on Sebastian Janikowski:

"The Raider Nation salutes Sebastian Janikowski as the sun sets on his illustrious career with the Oakland Raiders. He joined the team as a surprise first-round pick in the 2000 Draft and finishes his time in Oakland as one of the greatest or perhaps the greatest kicker in pro football history. His powerful left leg produced an NFL-record 55 field goals of 50-or-more yards. The motto 'Once a Raider, Always a Raider' has never been more true as his 18-year career makes him the longest-tenured player in Raiders history. Sebastian, his wife, Lori, and their three children will always be a loved and treasured part of the Raiders family." - Mark Davis

That’s all very nice, still a dumb pick. 

 

[kface]

Considering plenty of first round picks just flat out fail...sure he was probably worth it

 

[Anarchy99]

Based on CareerAV, SJ ranks as having the 42nd most value of players from the 2000 draft class. Of all first round picks from 1995-2010, he ranks 150th in CareerAV.

Of all drafted kickers since 1960, Janikowski ranks 11th in CareerAV but will be passed by Gostkowski very soon.

 

[scothawk]

Pretty sure he would have been there in the 2nd...

 

[Arodin]

Certainty in the kicker position has virtually zero value, as there are a ton of completely reasonable kickers sitting out there without a job. Including, for example, Georgio Tavecchio (Go Bears!) who'd been on the Raiders' practice squad for several years. Tampa Bay decided to fire Nick Folk this year, and picked up Patrick Murray midseason; Murray made 19 of 23 field goals. Dan Bailey went out for Dallas and they brought in Mike Nugent, who made 7 of 9 while Bailey was hurt, got cut, and later in the season made 4 of 4 for Chicago. 

You don't worry about the kicker position. If it's not working you go get a new one.

As a counter, the examples you provide include 6 missed field goals out of 36...a not very desirable miss rate.  How many games those misses occurred in would have become wins for the team had they had a reliable kicker on the roster?

The fact that people do not value kickers is not, a priori, evidence that kickers do not have value.

 

[hoffman0001]

I know it's February, but are we really talking about a washed-up kicker that was on IR last year? 

 

[squistion]

I know it's February, but are we really talking about a washed-up kicker that was on IR last year? 

 

[CalBear]

As a counter, the examples you provide include 6 missed field goals out of 36...a not very desirable miss rate.  How many games those misses occurred in would have become wins for the team had they had a reliable kicker on the roster?

The fact that people do not value kickers is not, a priori, evidence that kickers do not have value.

30/36 (83.3%) is better than Seabass's career percentage (80.4%). So how many more games did the Raiders lose by the extra kick Seabass missed over the replacement-level kickers available?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Based on CareerAV, SJ ranks as having the 42nd most value of players from the 2000 draft class. Of all first round picks from 1995-2010, he ranks 150th in CareerAV.

Of all drafted kickers since 1960, Janikowski ranks 11th in CareerAV but will be passed by Gostkowski very soon.

This seems counter to your other points as this makes it sound like pretty good value out of a 1st round pick.  Obviously you'd prefer 16th value from the 16th pick but when a majority of the first round picks probably aren't even providing top 100 value, 42nd seems pretty solid.

Likewise compared to all other 1st rounders from 1995-2010.  He lands in the 71st percentile.  Not terrible.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Not going to repost everything from back when this thread started but to summarize:

1) The opportunity to draft an impact player in the first round far exceeds taking a kicker at that spot. 

2) Along those lines, way easier to find a top kicker much later or even from undrafted players. 

3) Over his career, was Sea Bass really that much better than the other kickers? I don’t mean over his career, I mean year to year. I don’t believe he was. So if the option was having multiple other kickers over the same 18 years and their numbers would have added up to more made kicks, then the Raiders actually hurt the team by sticking with SJ.

4) I would have to look up his salaries, but I recall SJ was at times the highest paid kicker n the league and usually near the top of the market.

5) Factoring in the draft pick, his performance, and his pay, I personally don’t think any of that justifies his draft pick.

6) I can’t speak to things that go into a team that is not on the field. If there were additionally marketing opportunities or merchandise sales that brought the Raiders more money, then maybe they made some extra revenue. I am guessing a kicker doesn’t put fannies in the seats, but maybe I’m wrong.

 7) IMO, the only real compelling argument to SJ being worth a first round pick is that they got 18 years of service from him, which clearly doesn’t happen much. To me that shouldn’t trump the other things, but that led him to set the team scoring record. That doesn’t mean much to me, but it might to others.

I am not one of those that thinks he was worth the pick but how much of this was true at the time he was drafted and early in his career?  Kickers are a LOT better and there are a LOT more of them now than there were 18 years ago.

There were ten teams that made 90+ percent of their FGs this year.  In 2002 (furthest back I could find data) there was one (and even that was 90% exactly so barely made the cut).

 

[Anarchy99]

I am not one of those that thinks he was worth the pick but how much of this was true at the time he was drafted and early in his career?  Kickers are a LOT better and there are a LOT more of them now than there were 18 years ago.

There were ten teams that made 90+ percent of their FGs this year.  In 2002 (furthest back I could find data) there was one (and even that was 90% exactly so barely made the cut).

Which is why I said comparing SJ to his peers each year will not help his cause. In 18 seasons, he ranked in the Top 5 in FG% only twice (ranking 4th once and 5th once).  If we set the bar at Top 10 seasons in FG accuracy, he had 6 such seasons. Put another way, he had 12 seasons when he was not a Top 10 kicker in terms of accuracy. 

Certainly it’s not quite that simple, as he did take a lot of longer field goal attempts. Range was more of a strength of his than accuracy. 

Which brings me back to the question of the thread. IMO, the answer still should be no. 

 

[Anarchy99]

This seems counter to your other points as this makes it sound like pretty good value out of a 1st round pick.  Obviously you'd prefer 16th value from the 16th pick but when a majority of the first round picks probably aren't even providing top 100 value, 42nd seems pretty solid.

Likewise compared to all other 1st rounders from 1995-2010.  He lands in the 71st percentile.  Not terrible.

Not really. SJ scores so high in career value because he played for so long. In an individual season, an AV score of 4 is a good season for a kicker. 5 = very good. 6 = excellent. Anything higher is exceptional. Tucker last season scored an 8.

Here were the number of seasons some recent kickers had with yearly scores of 4 or more. 

Hanson 13

Vinatieri 11

Kasay 10

Longwell 10

Stover 10

Janikowski 8

Ryan 7

Dawson 7

Feely 7

Gostkowski 6

Gould 6

Brown 6

Tucker 5

Most of those othe kickers were not close to being first round picks. 

 

[renesauz]

Based on the data it would seem the answer is no, he wasn't worth a first.....but he also wasn't a bust. He provided value for a good long time. There is a middle ground on this one.

 

[jabarony]

Not really. SJ scores so high in career value because he played for so long. In an individual season, an AV score of 4 is a good season for a kicker. 5 = very good. 6 = excellent. Anything higher is exceptional. Tucker last season scored an 8.

Here were the number of seasons some recent kickers had with yearly scores of 4 or more. 

Hanson 13

Vinatieri 11

Kasay 10

Longwell 10

Stover 10

Janikowski 8

Ryan 7

Dawson 7

Feely 7

Gostkowski 6

Gould 6

Brown 6

Tucker 5

Most of those othe kickers were not close to being first round picks. 

Hanson was a 2nd round pick.  And probably one of the best 2nd rounders the Lions ever drafted since the eighties.

 

[jabarony]

Lions 2nd round draft picks since Jason Hanson:

Ryan McNeil

Van Malone

Juan Roque  (XFL!)

Kevin Abrams

Germaine Crowell

Charlie Batch

Louis Delmar

Jordan Dixon

Drew Stanton

I. Alana Francis

Gerald Alexander 

Daniel Bullocks 

Shaun Cody

Teddy Lehman

Boss Bailey

Making a Edwards  (spell check won't even let me spell Ks name).

Dominic Raiola

Shaun Rogers

Barrett Green

Jarvis Best

Titus Young 

Mikel Leshoure

Ryan Broyles

Darius Slay

...

Might as well use a 2nd rounders on a kicker if chances are you're going to waste the pick anyways. 

 

[petekrum]

Lions 2nd round draft picks since Jason Hanson:

Ryan McNeil

Van Malone

Juan Roque  (XFL!)

Kevin Abrams

Germaine Crowell

Charlie Batch

Louis Delmar

Jordan Dixon

Drew Stanton

I. Alana Francis

Gerald Alexander 

Daniel Bullocks 

Shaun Cody

Teddy Lehman

Boss Bailey

Making a Edwards  (spell check won't even let me spell Ks name).

Dominic Raiola

Shaun Rogers

Barrett Green

Jarvis Best

Titus Young 

Mikel Leshoure

Ryan Broyles

Darius Slay

...

Might as well use a 2nd rounders on a kicker if chances are you're going to waste the pick anyways. 

That’s a losers mentality towards drafting. 

 

[Anarchy99]

The Lions should have made a list of everyone they wanted to draft in the second round and then forced themselves to randomly take someone not on their list. Would have done much better that way.