Secrets of the Sharks (1 Viewer)

[TheWalkmen]

I've been playing fantasy for a while and feel like I'm pretty hardcore, but I usually don't win my league. I usually finish in the 4 - 6 spot. I creep my way into the playoffs but then fizzle out quickly (my league mates say I'm like a weak fart on a cold night - whatever the hell that means).

I read the boards, I do my homework. I try to pick undervalued players during the draft. I think I sell high, I think I buy low. I watch the waiver wire. But I never win the freakin super bowl!

I'm asking advice from those that win year in and year out. What are your secrets?

 

[FavreCo]

Dynasty league? listen to what I say.

Redraft? Can't help ya.

 

[Tibetan Sherpa]

Seriously....ask this guy...

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;#entry9153942

 

[:ptts:]

 

[TheWalkmen]

Dynasty league? listen to what I say. Redraft? Can't help ya.

I'm in both so any advice is welcome!

 

[Gr00vus]

Watch the games.

Watch the preseason games to see how guys look with your own eyes. Way too many people around here base everything on stats, hype and heresay. Your own eyes are the only counter balance to that. If you aren't able to tell who looks good and who doesn't - well, just keep watching and eventually you'll be able to. Watch late into the preseason games too - you can find a gem there every now and then. Sure you have to put performances in the proper context, and most of those guys won't make the squad, but all it takes is identifying one or two who will and could pay off down the road.

Watch the regular season games. Same reason as above.

Watch college games. Same reason as above.

Watch the games, otherwise all you really know is what other people are telling you and it's tough to separate the useful opinions and info from the garbage without your own knowledge base.

 

[FavreCo]

Dynasty league? listen to what I say. Redraft? Can't help ya.

I'm in both so any advice is welcome!

What do ya want to know?

 

[FavreCo]

Watch the games.

Watch the preseason games to see how guys look with your own eyes. Way too many people around here base everything on stats, hype and heresay. Your own eyes are the only counter balance to that. If you aren't able to tell who looks good and who doesn't - well, just keep watching and eventually you'll be able to. Watch late into the preseason games too - you can find a gem there every now and then. Sure you have to put performances in the proper context, and most of those guys won't make the squad, but all it takes is identifying one or two who will and could pay off down the road.

Watch the regular season games. Same reason as above.

Watch college games. Same reason as above.

Watch the games, otherwise all you really know is what other people are telling you and it's tough to separate the useful opinions and info from the garbage without your own knowledge base.

There's a start right there.

Don't let some college player on some highly ranked team fool you (BMW). Take note of the smaller school players. Use NFL Draftcoundown for analysis.

Don't pick WR's on teams with horrible QB's (Tenn, Oak, Chi, etc.). Take the WR who has a chance to put up #'s the 1st year with a legit QB. For instance, Earl Bennett never made my list because he will never be a superstar where he is now. Had he been drafted by say Denver, he would have made my list.

 

[TheWalkmen]

Dynasty league? listen to what I say. Redraft? Can't help ya.

I'm in both so any advice is welcome!

What do ya want to know?

How you win your league year after year, or are at least near the top.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

winning championships is not easy....once you get into the playoffs you never know what can happen....you could have a better team on paper, but that week you run into a buzzsaw while your guys lay an egg....it happens

keep doing the things you are doing and try to build as much depth on your roster as possible...

the only other thing I can think to mention is that when you are considering add/drops,etc....don%t just look at your roster, think about what other owners might need, their strengths and weaknesses....try to anticipate what you think they need to do to improve their teams.....and then maybe do things like pick up guys you think they might need, beat them to the punch, even if you don%t neccessarily need them....if someone is sitting on your bench, at least he is not scoring points for someone else that might need him....then try to use this to our advantage through trades, etc....ultimately it is about making your team the best, while also weakening the other teams.....keep doing all these things and you will get closer to having the better team as you enter the playoffs, and also improving your playoff seed which should help you improve in the playoffs

making moves that keep other teams from improving their lineups is somethng that is overlooked by many fantasy players....you can gain an edge by picking up that guy you really don%t need just by the simple fact that another guy needs him more then you do....

 

[mightyeskimo]

First of all, don't go into your league thinking you're going to win the Super Bowl year in and year out. There is a large amount of pure chance involved in actually winning the whole thing. Dynasty speaking, I started with absolute crap. Troy Hambrick was my RB1! Now look at my roster below. It takes time but it can be done. I always use a long term value when I sell my guys. If no one wants to pony up the cost fine, sit tight. Make good draft choices and valuable trades. Keep going at it would be my best advice.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Watch the games.Watch the preseason games to see how guys look with your own eyes. Way too many people around here base everything on stats, hype and heresay. Your own eyes are the only counter balance to that. If you aren't able to tell who looks good and who doesn't - well, just keep watching and eventually you'll be able to. Watch late into the preseason games too - you can find a gem there every now and then. Sure you have to put performances in the proper context, and most of those guys won't make the squad, but all it takes is identifying one or two who will and could pay off down the road.Watch the regular season games. Same reason as above.Watch college games. Same reason as above.Watch the games, otherwise all you really know is what other people are telling you and it's tough to separate the useful opinions and info from the garbage without your own knowledge base.

This is seriously one of the best posts I've ever seen in here.

 

[valhallan]

Watch the games.

Your own eyes can see things way before they show up on the stat sheet.

 

[Bankerguy]

Keep in mind this a game. There is also a luck factor involved that cannot be denied.

 

[MG345]

I think that is the best piece of advice, watch the games. If you have NFL network and a DVR, record as many games as you can, and watch them all. I literally watched every single preseason game the last few years, and have done resoundingly better in my leagues because of it. Reading message boards can help, same with rankings and stats, but none of it matters if you don't put it into context.

As the season goes on look for teams that will have easy schedules during your playoffs, but also identify which teams will have it sown up by then. You want guys with easy matchups, with something to play for during the playoffs, not necessarily the "best players". You would be amazed at how many times championships are won with guys that don't finish in the top 10 at their respective position.

 

[shader]

Watch the games.Watch the preseason games to see how guys look with your own eyes. Way too many people around here base everything on stats, hype and heresay. Your own eyes are the only counter balance to that. If you aren't able to tell who looks good and who doesn't - well, just keep watching and eventually you'll be able to. Watch late into the preseason games too - you can find a gem there every now and then. Sure you have to put performances in the proper context, and most of those guys won't make the squad, but all it takes is identifying one or two who will and could pay off down the road.Watch the regular season games. Same reason as above.Watch college games. Same reason as above.Watch the games, otherwise all you really know is what other people are telling you and it's tough to separate the useful opinions and info from the garbage without your own knowledge base.

Follow this advice, except for one part:Always watch the games and trust your OWN instincts. Try to make your own rankings.But my advice is to never watch the pre-season. It's a waste of time, and I've always been better off not paying it any attention.Maybe watch the rookies, but don't use it to judge veterans. If you want to know how a veteran looks, watch clips or games of him from the year before. My biggest advice is to play to the strength of your roster. Get areas of definite superiority (best RB's in league, best WR's in league, etc), and then try and shore up the other areas through trades and waivers.Also, in my leagues, it seems like everyone comes out of the drafts ok. But the teams that dominate are the ones that trade successfully. Note the guys in your league that are easy to trade with, and take all their players. It's like taking candy from a baby. Because if you aren't doing it, someone else is.Never stand pat with your roster. A roster that stays the same, slowly falls apart. It takes constant attention.

 

[H.K.]

I've been playing fantasy for a while and feel like I'm pretty hardcore, but I usually don't win my league. I usually finish in the 4 - 6 spot. I creep my way into the playoffs but then fizzle out quickly (my league mates say I'm like a weak fart on a cold night - whatever the hell that means). I read the boards, I do my homework. I try to pick undervalued players during the draft. I think I sell high, I think I buy low. I watch the waiver wire. But I never win the freakin super bowl!I'm asking advice from those that win year in and year out. What are your secrets?

1) Drink heavily.2) If what you've done in the past hasn't worked, try something different.

 

[FavreCo]

Dynasty league? listen to what I say. Redraft? Can't help ya.

I'm in both so any advice is welcome!

What do ya want to know?

How you win your league year after year, or are at least near the top.

You can't. Even the greatest team in our league's history (mine) had to go thru back to back 3-10 seasons to climb back to the top. I'm climbing back via the draft with a new nucleus of Andre Johnson, Gore, Calvin, Marshall, Jennings, and the newly acquired draft pick of Kevin Smith...if he works out.

 

[TheWalkmen]

Good stuff in here so far. I definitely need to watch more games.... Good stuff on picking up people someone else might need in order to weaken their team. Didn't ever really think of that.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Watch the games.Watch the preseason games to see how guys look with your own eyes. Way too many people around here base everything on stats, hype and heresay. Your own eyes are the only counter balance to that. If you aren't able to tell who looks good and who doesn't - well, just keep watching and eventually you'll be able to. Watch late into the preseason games too - you can find a gem there every now and then. Sure you have to put performances in the proper context, and most of those guys won't make the squad, but all it takes is identifying one or two who will and could pay off down the road.Watch the regular season games. Same reason as above.Watch college games. Same reason as above.Watch the games, otherwise all you really know is what other people are telling you and it's tough to separate the useful opinions and info from the garbage without your own knowledge base.

This is seriously one of the best posts I've ever seen in here.

Totally agree. All of the guys that continuously win in my $ league have the Direct TV season ticket. It REALLY helps to put your own eyeballs on as much football as you can. Just sayin'. (I realize I totally regurgitated what has already been said, but hey, it was a great point). Always going on the gut feelings of others really gets you nowhere. And luck...there is a lot of luck involved.

 

[Banger]

Dynasty league? listen to what I say. Redraft? Can%t help ya.

I%m in both so any advice is welcome!

What do ya want to know?

How you win your league year after year, or are at least near the top.

Get in a league with a bunch of dopes is a start. The draft is obviously an important part of your success but I believe an equally/more important part is the in-season management. Not only waiver pickups but constantly reviewing your roster, and identifying strengths and weakness. I constantly try and upgrade my spots and never waste a roster spot on a player with no upside. You need to constantly evaluate your opponents roster and know what their strengths and weakness%s, who is injured, who is slumping and offer trades, even small ones that can make marginal improvements in your roster. In a dynasty league last year I watched a few Bronco games over the first 2-3 weeks and watched Marshall and fell in love with his crazy ability ( ). The guy who had him was 4 deep at wr and weak at RB so we made a relatively small trade and the rest is history. This year a guy like that you may want to target is a guy like Ginn. He%s done nothing, he looks to be on a bad offense and he%s cheap but he%s got talent and opportunity (#1 wr) so he%s worth a shot. If he flames out, no big deal because he doesn%t cost you a lot but if they blow up those are the guys you can never get your hands on. You need to get the guys before they blow up.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Watching the preseason games is great advice.

Example: a couple of years ago, I was preparing for my annual dynasty auction draft. I had two slots open for RBs. I decided to watch the 49ers at Dallas to see how Gore looked in his new starting role. I knew about Gore's pedigree, but you'd hear a lot about his injury history and that he was a big risk. Dallas had a pretty solid D line, and Parcells left the starting defense in there for almost the entire first half. Well, Gore absolutely shredded Dallas. Killed them. That was all I need to see. I drafted Gore for cheap, and he was one of my best players that year.

Some fantasy owners do not see enough of these players in games, and that is a disadvantage.

 

[gianmarco]

1. Know your scoring. I see too many people that will have similar looking teams in different leagues with different settings. PPR vs. non-PPR.

2. Know how many you have to start. Smaller leagues with fewer starting skill spots require a different looking team than larger leagues with more starting spots. 12 team leagues that only start 2 RB/2 WR, for example, require studs. Deeper leagues that start 2 RB/3WR and even 1 or 2 flex spots require more depth. Building depth for those shallower leagues is a great way to finish 4th-6th but never close the deal.

3. I subscribe to the elite/stud theory. These are the guys that help win championships. Sometimes you're lucky enough to draft them. Other times, you need to work hard to acquire them through trades. There are times to overpay in a trade and if you can afford to do so for a bona fide stud, do it.

4. Start the season off with depth, consolidate toward the mid-end of season. Depth will help you keep a good record during byes/injuries, but at the end it does you little good. You want the best starting lineup you can get. Target playoff-fringe teams and bundle depth for a hurting team to get a stud. It may backfire but it also gives you the best chance to win. Similar to poker, it's the difference of just making the money and going for it all at the final table and winning 1st. I don't like to just "make the money" and would rather bubble while going all out for 1st.

5. Be prepared to give up "emotional" attachments to players. We all have guys we like and don't like, but when it interferes with what you do and what you want to believe, you're going to hurt yourself. Don't be the guy that can't give up on a guy he drafted when he's obviously failing to perform.

6. You may want to pay closer attention to playoff schedules. Last year, for example, J. Lewis was a CLEAR buy-low given who he was going to face to finish the year off. Look for guys that struggle early because of a tough schedule that is going to lighten up. Maybe in your case, pay even more attention to it.

7. Figure out if you're making lineup decision errors. Are you afraid to gamble? Do you sit your studs incorrectly for gut picks? Hard to say without knowing where you're going wrong, but pay attention to those things and if its an area to fix, then fix it.

8. Finally, there may not be much you can do. Luck plays a big part of this. If you have the best team on paper and they simply fail to perform, that's just how it goes sometimes. Just remember it should equal out over the long-run.

 

[hostile]

I can%t agree more with watching the games. You also need to play the waiver wire well.

I had a bad draft last year, and had to take Dunn as my RB2. I wont even mention my RB3/4.

I was watching the NYG game when BJ went down, and I immediately ran downstairs and plucked Ward off the wire. He was solid in Jacobs% absence.

I can say the same thing happened while watching TB... I signed Graham before anyone in my league knew what he was. As far as they were concerned, he was a "waiver wire scrub"... ya well, that scrub turned out to be a pretty decent option, didnt he?

Someone in that same league had to put Fred Taylor to the wire to clear a roster spot for a bye. Waivers opened at 9:00AM on the Tuesday, and by 9:00:01, Taylor was on my roster. The guy thought he could sneak Taylor to the wire, then easily pick him up again without anyone noticing. WOW did I ever get an evil email that day. Down the stretch last year, Taylor was a very consistent producer for me as a matchup guy with Graham and K Jones (another WW pickup).

If you had watched you would have known to stay far, far away from an obviously lessened Shaun Alexander.

Paying attention to boards like this, watching the games, drafting reasonably well, working the waiver wire well, making a key trade or two which help give you that one little push it takes tp put you over the hump.

.. oh ya, and luck.

 

[FavreCo]

Totally agree. All of the guys that continuously win in my $ league have the Direct TV season ticket. It REALLY helps to put your own eyeballs on as much football as you can. Just sayin'. (I realize I totally regurgitated what has already been said, but hey, it was a great point). Always going on the gut feelings of others really gets you nowhere. And luck...there is a lot of luck involved.

You see a player's potential before the other owners do. Mistake I made last year even though I have Direct TV: I should have had Ryan Grant but I couldn't beleive what I was seeing was real last season. I knew about him in NY and how well he played there in the previous pre-season, knew about his injury there and then saw him run....I still missed out (should have bid higher) after he was showcasing his talent.

 

[Banger]

4. Start the season off with depth, consolidate toward the mid-end of season. Depth will help you keep a good record during byes/injuries, but at the end it does you little good. You want the best starting lineup you can get. Target playoff-fringe teams and bundle depth for a hurting team to get a stud. It may backfire but it also gives you the best chance to win. Similar to poker, it's the difference of just making the money and going for it all at the final table and winning 1st. I don't like to just "make the money" and would rather bubble while going all out for 1st.

Agree completely.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I honestly equate FF with poker in terms of the chances to win. Just because you are an awesome poker player, does not mean you%ll win every game you play.

You hear alot about poker players being able to carve out a good living because what they can essentially do is play in alot of %guppy games%. I think alot of people on this board could find guppy leagues and win them too. However, the big variable in poker is the cards and the big variable in FF are the players and their performance.

The best advice I can give is this: Stay as up to date as possible on all NFL news and league developments and understand its/their ramifications. I may not have Marshawn Lynch, but Jason Peters ending his holdout increases Lynch%s value. Does his owner know that - maybe/maybe not. But you should know that. Is an owner continually churning players at a specific position? Might be ripe for a trade - he thinks that%s a weak area. It%s just paying attention to those details that IMO give the real sharks the leg up. They may not win their leagues all the time, but sharks are always competitive.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I don't know much regarding dynasties but in redraft leagues I think most owners pay way too much attention to the regular season. I'm constantly trading away/for players based upon sweet playoff matchups. Strength of schedule is a nice tool. I'll gladly suffer a loss or two in the regular season because of byes if it gives me a better playoff team. Also I believe too many people focus on depth - since I've played this game I'm usually one injury away from being crippled. But I've made it to the championship 4 years running. One last thing - trade up. Don't settle for a team full of several good players. Package them up and get uber studs. Scour the waiver wire for some passable scrub to fill the vacancy and you'll usually end up with strange names on your team but scoring more points.

You've struggled for a few years - there is an element of luck. If you've had one of the better teams on paper each season but suffered some fluke losses then keep up what you've been doing and the luck will eventually turn in your favor. If you haven't been the clear favorite or if your team really is just scraping into the playoffs you obviously need to change up your style. Lots of people have different tacticts-keep it up and you'll find a style that works for you. Best of luck.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

4. Start the season off with depth, consolidate toward the mid-end of season. Depth will help you keep a good record during byes/injuries, but at the end it does you little good. You want the best starting lineup you can get. Target playoff-fringe teams and bundle depth for a hurting team to get a stud. It may backfire but it also gives you the best chance to win. Similar to poker, it's the difference of just making the money and going for it all at the final table and winning 1st. I don't like to just "make the money" and would rather bubble while going all out for 1st.

:IBTL: Agree completely.

I agree as well...I mentioned getting depth earlier in this thread, but this may be the most important part of getting depth....using it to your advantage.....trade some depth for potential game changers prior to playoffs

 

[BroadwayG]

Spend some time in the ACF answering questions to build up some positive FF karma.

 

[AnonymousBob]

And read the Shark Pool threads in the off-season. That's when some of the best discussions take place.

 

[Genester]

2) If what you've done in the past hasn't worked, try something different.

Based on what you've described, what you do now doesn't work. I remember the days of Chetasheets.net (the long long time ago predecessor to footballguys), and the early days of VBD. At that time, if you new the concept, you could dominate drafts at will and most of the time that was enough. Now, your average fantasy player is pretty darn good - just following "sounds advice" isn't enough. So, you must change things. For example:Tier players - that's still a concept your average fantasy guy doesn't understand. Take home run types earlier than others would, VBD be damned (if you believe these players will succeed, based on your assessment of their skills and situation). AD, Megatron, Run DMC are just some examples.If you want to win over consistency - take bigger risks. You'll finish 8-10/12 in many leagues, but you'll do well where your risks pay out. Eventually, as success comes, you'll find consistency is much harder than winning - in my most challenging league I would be happier finishing 2nd 8 times out of 10 and winning twice than finishing 1st 4 times and 10th the rest of the time. As someone pointed out, winning it all involves an element of luck we can't control. Consistently making the play-offs is something we should all strive for.

 

[pollardsvision]

winning championships is not easy....once you get into the playoffs you never know what can happen....you could have a better team on paper, but that week you run into a buzzsaw while your guys lay an egg....it happenskeep doing the things you are doing and try to build as much depth on your roster as possible...the only other thing I can think to mention is that when you are considering add/drops,etc....don%t just look at your roster, think about what other owners might need, their strengths and weaknesses....try to anticipate what you think they need to do to improve their teams.....and then maybe do things like pick up guys you think they might need, beat them to the punch, even if you don%t neccessarily need them....if someone is sitting on your bench, at least he is not scoring points for someone else that might need him....then try to use this to our advantage through trades, etc....ultimately it is about making your team the best, while also weakening the other teams.....keep doing all these things and you will get closer to having the better team as you enter the playoffs, and also improving your playoff seed which should help you improve in the playoffsmaking moves that keep other teams from improving their lineups is somethng that is overlooked by many fantasy players....you can gain an edge by picking up that guy you really don%t need just by the simple fact that another guy needs him more then you do....

the greatest draft pick i ever made came about because i happened to be over at a friends house who had the nfl network and sat down to watch a jacksonville jaguars pre-season game. i noticed this guy, who i'd read was going to be a kick off specialist, possibly a 3rd down specialist, at best, actually ran with some power with his low center of gravity and tree trunk thighs.everywhere i read, people said to take greg jones to handcuff fred taylor, i drafted MJD in the 14th round in my large keeper league that year (2006). most importantly, what i saw in that preseason game gave me the confidence to keep him on my roster after he gained a total of 12 yards in his 1st 2 NFL games. i'll stop trying to make myself sound like a shark now. preseason games are good to watch.

 

[baconisgood]

I've been playing fantasy for a while and feel like I'm pretty hardcore, but I usually don't win my league. I usually finish in the 4 - 6 spot. I creep my way into the playoffs but then fizzle out quickly (my league mates say I'm like a weak fart on a cold night - whatever the hell that means). I read the boards, I do my homework. I try to pick undervalued players during the draft. I think I sell high, I think I buy low. I watch the waiver wire. But I never win the freakin super bowl!I'm asking advice from those that win year in and year out. What are your secrets?

Your not giving us a lot to go on. When I see the 4th or 5th best team in the playoffs they often got their because their depth allowed them to stay competitive all year. Does this sound like you? Their major flaw (besides poor luck from injuries) seems to be that they are drafting their depth, often at RB and getting bye with savvy pick ups at other positions. The problem with this is that while they end up with decent WR, TE and QB play they often end up facing a guy with better starters at those positions while their 6th or 7th round picks ride the pine. Take care of your starters before your backups as a rule of thumb (there are times to deviate). I'll walk you through my last draft of this year to give you an idea of this, although its not a perfect example since I made a trade and its the first year of a keeper league. I had the #1 pick (which always helps to), I traded it for the #2 pick and his 11th rounder. This trade is probably a small loser for me in standard leagues, ours we lose the position our keeper was drafted in + 1 round so there is no keeping the number 1, which in my mind increases the value of 9-11th rounders who can potentially be starters the next year. + I was fortunate enough to have LT in two other leagues, and ### #### I love rooting for ADP. League is 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 flex (rb/wr/te), 1TE, 1Def, 1K1. ADP -Not much to talk about here (besides the ADP v Westbrook discussion)2. Andre Johnson- 3. Larry Fitzgerald- Two of my top 5 WRs fell, (I have Braylon at 6) by taking these two I am nearly committing myself to 2 RBs with the next two picks.4. Thomas Jones-5. Jonathan Stewart- Two RBs to fill out my starters and Flex. 6. Chris Cooley- Perry fills out my RBs for now, the choice is between QB, TE and #3WR. I'm not liking what I see at WR given what I expect to be there in later rounds, and I'm targeting Warner in the 9th. This is the highest I have ever taken a TE in a draft. 7. Chris Perry8. Kurt Warner- 9. Joey Galloway-This is why I passed on #3 WRs in the 6th and it worked out nicely. 10. Pakers D11. Javon Walker- The trade allows me to take a high upside guy here. If he returns to form hes depth and a keeper for next year or trade bait. 11. Aaron Rodgers- Targeted as my #2 QB. 12. DJ Hackett- 13. Michael Bush- dearth of RBs14. Neil Rackers- I'll comment on my own draft. I have 3 guys who could be handcuffed at RB. ADP, Stewart, and Perry (heck you could even argue for Leon Washington). I could have chosen Chester at the 6th/7th (I know hes not making it back to me in this league), Deangelo I would have considered but went in the 6th round. Watson went in the 9th round so I would have had to take him over Warner or Galloway. My draft takes shape at the 2/3 turn when I take 2 WRs, which essentially dictates that at least my next 2 and probably 3 of my next 4 are going to be RBs (barring a major value drop). Round 6 my TE pick commits me to a WR at the next turn to go with Warner. If I make the playoffs without major injury or major incorrect projection I'm looking at RB1: StudWR1: StudWR2: StudQB: possible stud with a reasonable backupRB2/Flex: Stud possible in Stewart, solid production from Chris Perry with upside, solid production from TJ. The flex I could also fill in with Galloway who plays Atlanta in week 15 or Walker who plays Houston week 16. TE: Solid production.The weaknesses on my team are- my WR depth is old with an injured hamstring, nuts with a bad knee and a rookie QB and injured with an injured injury for his whole carrier. My 5th RB is two major injuries, instead of one, away from the bulk of carries, just hoping he ends up with the goal line touches during the year.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

3. I subscribe to the elite/stud theory. These are the guys that help win championships. Sometimes you're lucky enough to draft them. Other times, you need to work hard to acquire them through trades. There are times to overpay in a trade and if you can afford to do so for a bona fide stud, do it.

I think this is by far the most important aspect of a dynasty league. When you get a stud, keep them. You will get all kinds of crappy and not so crappy offers for your studs. If you're not getting a stud or potential stud in return, it's just not worth it. Don't trade studs for depth. Be the guy who trades depth for studs.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Watch the games.

Watch the preseason games to see how guys look with your own eyes. Way too many people around here base everything on stats, hype and heresay. Your own eyes are the only counter balance to that. If you aren't able to tell who looks good and who doesn't - well, just keep watching and eventually you'll be able to. Watch late into the preseason games too - you can find a gem there every now and then. Sure you have to put performances in the proper context, and most of those guys won't make the squad, but all it takes is identifying one or two who will and could pay off down the road.

Watch the regular season games. Same reason as above.

Watch college games. Same reason as above.

Watch the games, otherwise all you really know is what other people are telling you and it's tough to separate the useful opinions and info from the garbage without your own knowledge base.

There's a start right there.

Don't let some college player on some highly ranked team fool you (BMW). Take note of the smaller school players. Use NFL Draftcoundown for analysis.

Don't pick WR's on teams with horrible QB's (Tenn, Oak, Chi, etc.). Take the WR who has a chance to put up #'s the 1st year with a legit QB. For instance, Earl Bennett never made my list because he will never be a superstar where he is now. Had he been drafted by say Denver, he would have made my list.

Don't ever watch college football.Everybody knows that 72% of NFL players are great, whereas only 17% of college players are great.

If you think you'll ever learn anything watching Hershell Walker pound kindergardeners into the ground you are delusional.

The only purpose of watching college football is to cheer for you alma mater, root against the schools you hate, and look up cheerleaders skirts.

If you want to understand NFL talent, watch NFL football and take an occasional flyer on a rook based on what some freak like Mel Kiper says.

 

[Banger]

3. I subscribe to the elite/stud theory. These are the guys that help win championships. Sometimes you're lucky enough to draft them. Other times, you need to work hard to acquire them through trades. There are times to overpay in a trade and if you can afford to do so for a bona fide stud, do it.

I think this is by far the most important aspect of a dynasty league. When you get a stud, keep them. You will get all kinds of crappy and not so crappy offers for your studs. If you're not getting a stud or potential stud in return, it's just not worth it. Don't trade studs for depth. Be the guy who trades depth for studs.

I subscribe to this theory big time. Often times I may give up what seems like a lot to get the guy I want but in a dynasty format sometimes you have to do that to get your guy and that's where the depth comes in.

 

[mightyeskimo]

Also, for your dynasty league, don't ever value your players according to another teams needs. I have a guy in my league who will always value players based on the position they will play on his team. For example, if he's trying to acquire Andre Johnson as his WR3 he'll always value him as a WR3, which is to say unbelievably lower than his actual value. Get at least market value for your players on an overall scale. Make that zero and try never to go below that. There are many times when you can get way more than market value for a player you trade away and way less than market value for a player you acquire if you're patient.

 

[Gr00vus]

If you want to understand NFL talent, watch NFL football and take an occasional flyer on a rook based on what some freak like Mel Kiper says.

Watching college games puts what the "experts" say into context. Did the guy play in a pro-offense or wishbone? Important to know and see for QB prospects. Was the talent level in the PAC10 underrated a given year because they get less media coverage than some other conferences? No way to really know unless you watched. Just look at the threads from last year debating about Peterson. The guys who had seen him play pretty much knew he'd be a top level pro, even if he didn't get all the reps immediately and cashed in last year. The list goes on. And if you watch enough you can actually tell who's being successful because they're beating up on creampuffs and who's truly got the goods to excel at the next level.To toot my own horn a little bit, I was all over these boards a couple years ago telling people Reggie Bush wouldn't live up to the hype he was getting. Why? Because I'd seen a ton of his games and knew his weaknesses. You don't watch the games and you're one of the crowd wondering why the heck would the Texans pass this guy up.

 

[valhallan]

Is an owner continually churning players at a specific position? Might be ripe for a trade - he thinks that's a weak area.

Wow, great advice. I've been playing for a decade and never really thought to look at that.

 

[mightyeskimo]

If you want to understand NFL talent, watch NFL football and take an occasional flyer on a rook based on what some freak like Mel Kiper says.

Watching college games puts what the "experts" say into context. Did the guy play in a pro-offense or wishbone? Important to know and see for QB prospects. Was the talent level in the PAC10 underrated a given year because they get less media coverage than some other conferences? No way to really know unless you watched. Just look at the threads from last year debating about Peterson. The guys who had seen him play pretty much knew he'd be a top level pro, even if he didn't get all the reps immediately and cashed in last year. The list goes on. And if you watch enough you can actually tell who's being successful because they're beating up on creampuffs and who's truly got the goods to excel at the next level.

Context is always important. However, there are always going to be players that come out of nowhere. Present day: Colston. Past tense: Jerry Rice. Watching college football is a great tool to evaluate players coming into the league. Just make sure you use the proper context. There's nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy as long as you've come to some solid conclusions on your own as to why you're doing it.

 

[fruity pebbles]

dynasty-

collect 1st round picks during the summer and sell them the following spring before the draft. You can often get firsts cheap as near throw ins in trades. I like to downgrade slightly (may not even really be a downgrade, just a player preference for him) at a position for a first rounder. Once ive got as many cheap firsts as i can i sell them later for upgrades and established players when the draft hype hits.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

If you want to understand NFL talent, watch NFL football and take an occasional flyer on a rook based on what some freak like Mel Kiper says.

Watching college games puts what the "experts" say into context. Did the guy play in a pro-offense or wishbone? Important to know and see for QB prospects. Was the talent level in the PAC10 underrated a given year because they get less media coverage than some other conferences? No way to really know unless you watched. Just look at the threads from last year debating about Peterson. The guys who had seen him play pretty much knew he'd be a top level pro, even if he didn't get all the reps immediately and cashed in last year. The list goes on. And if you watch enough you can actually tell who's being successful because they're beating up on creampuffs and who's truly got the goods to excel at the next level.To toot my own horn a little bit, I was all over these boards a couple years ago telling people Reggie Bush wouldn't live up to the hype he was getting. Why? Because I'd seen a ton of his games and knew his weaknesses. You don't watch the games and you're one of the crowd wondering why the heck would the Texans pass this guy up.

To be honest, I was just messing with FavreCo. The stealth point is that there are a lot of guys (i.e. you) who understand college ball much better than the average fantasy player (i.e. me), but it doesn't need to be a disadvantage if you keep your ears and mind open...

 

[bonesman]

1.) Get a lucky hat, shirt or other article of clothing. What makes it lucky (never washed, lost but found) doesn't matter... just as long as it generates and wields copious amounts of luck

2.) Get a superstition. In addition to donning your lucky clothing, you're going to need other luck generating activities... maybe you sit in the same place every week... perhaps you do a certain dance or other highly ritualized ceremony when your RB's are in the redzone... whatever it is, adopt it as a deeply held belief. Also remember that the key to a good superstition is TIMING

 

[coolnerd]

If you want to understand NFL talent, watch NFL football and take an occasional flyer on a rook based on what some freak like Mel Kiper says.

Watching college games puts what the "experts" say into context. Did the guy play in a pro-offense or wishbone? Important to know and see for QB prospects. Was the talent level in the PAC10 underrated a given year because they get less media coverage than some other conferences? No way to really know unless you watched. Just look at the threads from last year debating about Peterson. The guys who had seen him play pretty much knew he'd be a top level pro, even if he didn't get all the reps immediately and cashed in last year. The list goes on. And if you watch enough you can actually tell who's being successful because they're beating up on creampuffs and who's truly got the goods to excel at the next level.

Context is always important. However, there are always going to be players that come out of nowhere. Present day: Colston. Past tense: Jerry Rice. Watching college football is a great tool to evaluate players coming into the league. Just make sure you use the proper context. There's nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy as long as you've come to some solid conclusions on your own as to why you're doing it.

To further this, it is not enough to identify the best players in a particular or position, but understand where they appear to rank in the context of NFL talent. This iss how to avoid drafting rookies heavily in a mediocore year (remember that Benson, Brown, Caddy) versus trading down if not out of the draft.

 

[Chaka]

How you win your league year after year, or are at least near the top.

Play in 10-20 leagues every year and you are bound to be a champion in at least one of them. Then you can go around telling people that you win championships every year.

 

[captbly]

I'm asking advice from those that win year in and year out. What are your secrets?

subscribe to footballguys.com. use the tools DD, LD. If you just fill your roster based on those alone you would do better... Dont tell anyone in my league though.

 

[Chaka]

I'm asking advice from those that win year in and year out. What are your secrets?

Play in 10+ league per year.Anyone who tells you they win one specific league every year is probably just playing with themselves.

 

[twitch]

In short, winning that one final game of the year in fantasy requires BIG PLAYS. Players who provide consistency are obviously great, and theyll get you to the playoffs. But to win it all, you obviously need a measure of luck. The luck factor in fantasy is the no-brainer of no-brainers. But I realize telling you that doesnt help. But you need BIG plays. And BIG games. And MATCHUPS. I lost a couple of years ago with one of the best redraft teams that Id ever assembled with Manning during his 49TD year, Holmes, LJ, Holt, and I forget who else, but I was so stacked I nearly went undefeated and broke every scoring record that league had ever seen. But in that final game, Manning faced Baltimore and my opponent had Billy Volek, who lit up some team like a Christmas tree and it was game over. So, obviously first, you have to pray for the luck of the fantasy gods. But secondly, and more importantly, you need to look over those matchups, be willing to take a calculated risk on players who can make BIG plays on weak opponents. That tried and true notion of always dancing with the lady who brung ya doesnt always work. Chance. Risk. Gamble. Make it happen. Good luck to all.

 

[mlwinokur]

Watch the games.Watch the preseason games to see how guys look with your own eyes. Way too many people around here base everything on stats, hype and heresay. Your own eyes are the only counter balance to that. If you aren't able to tell who looks good and who doesn't - well, just keep watching and eventually you'll be able to. Watch late into the preseason games too - you can find a gem there every now and then. Sure you have to put performances in the proper context, and most of those guys won't make the squad, but all it takes is identifying one or two who will and could pay off down the road.Watch the regular season games. Same reason as above.Watch college games. Same reason as above.Watch the games, otherwise all you really know is what other people are telling you and it's tough to separate the useful opinions and info from the garbage without your own knowledge base.

This is seriously one of the best posts I've ever seen in here.

Totally agree. All of the guys that continuously win in my $ league have the Direct TV season ticket. It REALLY helps to put your own eyeballs on as much football as you can. Just sayin'. (I realize I totally regurgitated what has already been said, but hey, it was a great point). Always going on the gut feelings of others really gets you nowhere. And luck...there is a lot of luck involved.

Listen to the guys I just quoted here.In my opinion, there is absolutly nothing more crucial to winning than watching the games. In fact, I found THIS THREAD from 2003 covering a similar topic, where I said the exact same thing! In the five years since I posted there my opinion has not changed one bit. If you want to win, watch the games.