Seems like qb is the deepest first tier this year (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

If you go with 1st tier of qb as being a reasonable chance to get 4300+ yards and eclipse 26 tds then I'd say your tier is this:

brees

Brady

pmanning

rivers

Rogers

schaub

romo

will get close

favre

pretty big tier 1

if your line for rb is over 1700 combined and 10+ tds the. Your tier is likely

adp

cj

mjd

gore

maybe turner

wr if it's 1350 and 8 it's

aj

Marshall

fitz

moss

s smith? Car

seems like a good year to wait on a qb til the fifth

 

[valence]

Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Rivers

Romo

Brady

Schaub

I think you listed three tiers there, not one.

 

[Thomsen]

Rice needs to be in the RB tier 1.

 

[oukurt]

RodgersBreesManning RiversRomoBradySchaubI think you listed three tiers there, not one.

Agreed. I see Romo becoming a Tier 1 this season. He seemed to start getting it last year. Enter Dez Bryant.

 

[valence]

RodgersBreesManning RiversRomoBradySchaubI think you listed three tiers there, not one.

Agreed. I see Romo becoming a Tier 1 this season. He seemed to start getting it last year. Enter Dez Bryant.

Possible, but you can wait until at least four QBs are off the board to take him. I still like the other 4 better than him.

 

[oukurt]

RodgersBreesManning RiversRomoBradySchaubI think you listed three tiers there, not one.

Agreed. I see Romo becoming a Tier 1 this season. He seemed to start getting it last year. Enter Dez Bryant.

Possible, but you can wait until at least four QBs are off the board to take him. I still like the other 4 better than him.

Oh I know. I love where I am able to draft him. I think he becomes the top scoring QB in 2010. He finally figured it out last year and that was with what I consider an average receiving corps. The addition of Dez Bryant put him over the top. I can't wait for Sundays watching him fling the ball around to Austin, Dez, Witten, and yes even Roy.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

RodgersBreesManning RiversRomoBradySchaubI think you listed three tiers there, not one.

I agree that you could break it down this way (and agree with your breakdown) but the way I read what sholditch is saying is there are a great numbers of QBs this year who could finish #1. With the exception of Rivers, I would not be surprised if any of the names above finished at the top. We also may see a tight cluster of high performers with little difference between 1-4. So yes: a deep first tier of QBs this year.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Personally, I think Rodgers and Brees are quite a bit ahead of the next tier of QBs, but I agree that there are a LOT of QBs who could land at #3 on the QB board by year's end:

Manning, P

Schaub

Romo

Brady

Rivers

I have the spread between Manning, P and Rivers to be ~20 FP, which could easily be overcome by a few extra TDs and a few less interceptions variance from my projections. Essentially, these five are all equally likely to be #3 by year's end, IMO.

and then a third tier (drop ~10 FP between Rivers and Favre, then a spread of ~27 fp from Favre to McNabb) to close out the top 12:

Favre

Cutler

Garrard

Ryan

McNabb

I think unless you pull the trigger on Rodgers in the mid-late first or Brees in the second, you could comfortably wait on QB1 into the fourth round and come out with a top-10 fantasy player at QB in a typical scoring paradigm.

 

[Disc Shark]

Oh, no, Footballguys! Please don't try to sell me Garrard again this year. I drank the Kool-ade and picked him as my #1QB last year. Thank goodness I also drafted Schaub.

 

[sholditch]

FWIW i do not now nor have ever considered Garrard a QB1. Just saying that there seems to be a lot more QBs that I would consider elite than there are RBs or WRs. Also, lets remember that last year's tier 1 did not include Rodgers. I honestly think it could easily be a 6-7 horse race for best QB at week 15.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Oh, no, Footballguys! Please don't try to sell me Garrard again this year. I drank the Kool-ade and picked him as my #1QB last year. Thank goodness I also drafted Schaub.

Hey Dodds time to switch that up, Garrard has been the target 2 straight year now. QBBC IMO has gone the way of the dodo bird. Kinda like drafting RB-RB-RB

 

[David Yudkin]

Oh, no, Footballguys! Please don't try to sell me Garrard again this year. I drank the Kool-ade and picked him as my #1QB last year. Thank goodness I also drafted Schaub.

You really shouldn't have that big a complaint over Garrard. IIRC, by the time the regular season rolled around, he was ranked in the QB10-12 range. He scored 11 more fantasy points than the year before (but ranked lower due to the insane QB totals posted last year). Had 2008 repeated itself QB scoring wire, he would have ranked 9th. I see nothing wrong with that based on what Dodds had projected. I'm also guessing that the cost for Garrard came at a hefty discount compared to other big name QBs, so your team should have been better at other spots by waiting on Garrard. Long story short, Garrard was not a wasted pick last year and many other players were a lot less productive than he was. Unfortunately, teams that only had Garrard would be on the short of QB scoring against most opponents, but that's why teams that wait on QB or use a QBBC need to have other options . . .

 

[Disc Shark]

Oh, no, Footballguys! Please don't try to sell me Garrard again this year. I drank the Kool-ade and picked him as my #1QB last year. Thank goodness I also drafted Schaub.

You really shouldn't have that big a complaint over Garrard. IIRC, by the time the regular season rolled around, he was ranked in the QB10-12 range. He scored 11 more fantasy points than the year before (but ranked lower due to the insane QB totals posted last year). Had 2008 repeated itself QB scoring wire, he would have ranked 9th. I see nothing wrong with that based on what Dodds had projected. I'm also guessing that the cost for Garrard came at a hefty discount compared to other big name QBs, so your team should have been better at other spots by waiting on Garrard. Long story short, Garrard was not a wasted pick last year and many other players were a lot less productive than he was. Unfortunately, teams that only had Garrard would be on the short of QB scoring against most opponents, but that's why teams that wait on QB or use a QBBC need to have other options . . .

You're right, David. Garrard was servicable and his overall numbers were good, but he had a lot of very good games and a lot of very bad games, so that it was difficult to predict when to start him. Generally, he was good at home, but not always. And I really shouldn't complain, since I think I took him in the 9th round in a 10-team redraft league, so I did have the opportunity to draft very good players at other positions.That said, I think I'd rather have any of the other QBs in Mark's third tier (Favre, Cutler, Ryan and McNabb) than Garrard.

 

[sholditch]

Bottom line: Garrard will never win you a fantasy championship if he starts for your team. Draft away.

 

[cr8f]

Oh, no, Footballguys! Please don't try to sell me Garrard again this year. I drank the Kool-ade and picked him as my #1QB last year. Thank goodness I also drafted Schaub.

You really shouldn't have that big a complaint over Garrard. IIRC, by the time the regular season rolled around, he was ranked in the QB10-12 range. He scored 11 more fantasy points than the year before (but ranked lower due to the insane QB totals posted last year). Had 2008 repeated itself QB scoring wire, he would have ranked 9th. I see nothing wrong with that based on what Dodds had projected. I'm also guessing that the cost for Garrard came at a hefty discount compared to other big name QBs, so your team should have been better at other spots by waiting on Garrard. Long story short, Garrard was not a wasted pick last year and many other players were a lot less productive than he was. Unfortunately, teams that only had Garrard would be on the short of QB scoring against most opponents, but that's why teams that wait on QB or use a QBBC need to have other options . . .

You're right, David. Garrard was servicable and his overall numbers were good, but he had a lot of very good games and a lot of very bad games, so that it was difficult to predict when to start him. Generally, he was good at home, but not always. And I really shouldn't complain, since I think I took him in the 9th round in a 10-team redraft league, so I did have the opportunity to draft very good players at other positions.That said, I think I'd rather have any of the other QBs in Mark's third tier (Favre, Cutler, Ryan and McNabb) than Garrard.

No kidding.

This year I think Cutler and Flacco will move up.

 

[Tarlyn]

I would add Cutler to at least the 2nd tier with 1st tier potential....he was close to 4k yards last season with a horrible OC, inexperienced WR's, and by all accounts a horrible season in general......27 TD's.

Assuming you dont get killed by penalty INT points.....I doubt he throws over 20 this season but will still be high compared to other top tier QB's.....he will break 4k yards and roughly 30 TD's with more experienced WR's...more of a pass first offense and a MUCH better OC.

He will be undervalued due to everyone's view on his last season as well compared to other QB's in his range.

Dont see you going wrong unless you feel that he will either get injured or him and Martz will blow up at each other.

 

[mdlane]

FWIW i do not now nor have ever considered Garrard a QB1. Just saying that there seems to be a lot more QBs that I would consider elite than there are RBs or WRs. Also, lets remember that last year's tier 1 did not include Rodgers. I honestly think it could easily be a 6-7 horse race for best QB at week 15.

The thing is, you are always going to pick a tier 1 RB over a tier 1 QB. So those ~6 RBs you listed are no brainer picks over QBs. Tier 1 WRs get a little trickier, depending on the scoring system. In most scoring systems, you'd probably take 1-2 of your tier 1 WRs before it becomes a hard decision (AJ, Fitz, CJ). Again, though, after Calvin Johnson, it becomes a harder decision. Basically, OF COURSE you are going to wait until the RBs you listed (and 1-3 of the WR you listed) are gone before thinking about drafting a QB. But that only takes you to the end of round 1.So what you really have to think about when you're making this comparison is the number of tier 2-3 RBs and WRs. Because THOSE are the guys you are going to seriously consider taking a QB in front of. Tier 2-3 RBs/WRs tend to go beginning at the end of round 1 depending on whether you got one of those "I MUST HAVE 2 RBs in the first two rounds" type guys/girls in your league. I think if you have a shortage of RBs/WRs in this category, you want to wait on QBs. But in my FF experience, all the tier 2-3 RB guys kind of blend together into a mediocre gulash where you're buying lottery tickets - kind of like picking up a Flacco and Eli Manning as a QBBC. Plus there are a ton of lower tier RBs later in the draft that will perform like tier 1-3 RBs that you can stock up on. So there never seems to be a worrisome shortage of those kind of RBs to make you hesitate on pulling the trigger on a legitimate tier 1 QB. The WRs are a different story. Once you get past tier 1-2 types, the rest become VERY sketchy and are going at a premium rate in the serpentine draft so it's hard to stock up on the Crabtrees/Nicks/etc. WRs and you're left praying on a prospect. The draft is an exciting fluid organism - probably the most fun part in fantasy football - so it's hard to make a blanket statement like "wait on QBs" but easier to make a statement like "I'm not considering QBs of this tier until there aren't RBs/WRs of this tier left". It's really all about value. And at pick #10 in the first round, it doesn't matter what CJ4.24's value is relative to Felix Jones. Because CJ4.24 is long gone. The problem I've seen with most of the "Don't pick a QB in early rounds!" strategy articles is that they ignore this fact and construct awkward situations to support their predisposed point of view.

 

[slayer666]

Oh, no, Footballguys! Please don't try to sell me Garrard again this year. I drank the Kool-ade and picked him as my #1QB last year. Thank goodness I also drafted Schaub.

You really shouldn't have that big a complaint over Garrard. IIRC, by the time the regular season rolled around, he was ranked in the QB10-12 range. He scored 11 more fantasy points than the year before (but ranked lower due to the insane QB totals posted last year). Had 2008 repeated itself QB scoring wire, he would have ranked 9th. I see nothing wrong with that based on what Dodds had projected. I'm also guessing that the cost for Garrard came at a hefty discount compared to other big name QBs, so your team should have been better at other spots by waiting on Garrard. Long story short, Garrard was not a wasted pick last year and many other players were a lot less productive than he was. Unfortunately, teams that only had Garrard would be on the short of QB scoring against most opponents, but that's why teams that wait on QB or use a QBBC need to have other options . . .

The biggest issue with Garrard was that he was a turd away from home last year. In eight road games, he averaged 197 passing yards and compiled three touchdowns against five picks. He failed to throw a touchdown pass in six of eight road games. On the positive tip, Garrard did post three rushing touchdowns, but he was still horrible. Bottom line: He sucked ###.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Oh, no, Footballguys! Please don't try to sell me Garrard again this year. I drank the Kool-ade and picked him as my #1QB last year. Thank goodness I also drafted Schaub.

You really shouldn't have that big a complaint over Garrard. IIRC, by the time the regular season rolled around, he was ranked in the QB10-12 range. He scored 11 more fantasy points than the year before (but ranked lower due to the insane QB totals posted last year). Had 2008 repeated itself QB scoring wire, he would have ranked 9th. I see nothing wrong with that based on what Dodds had projected. I'm also guessing that the cost for Garrard came at a hefty discount compared to other big name QBs, so your team should have been better at other spots by waiting on Garrard. Long story short, Garrard was not a wasted pick last year and many other players were a lot less productive than he was. Unfortunately, teams that only had Garrard would be on the short of QB scoring against most opponents, but that's why teams that wait on QB or use a QBBC need to have other options . . .

The biggest issue with Garrard was that he was a turd away from home last year. In eight road games, he averaged 197 passing yards and compiled three touchdowns against five picks. He failed to throw a touchdown pass in six of eight road games. On the positive tip, Garrard did post three rushing touchdowns, but he was still horrible. Bottom line: He sucked ###.

except that he didn't ...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Oh, no, Footballguys! Please don't try to sell me Garrard again this year. I drank the Kool-ade and picked him as my #1QB last year. Thank goodness I also drafted Schaub.

You really shouldn't have that big a complaint over Garrard. IIRC, by the time the regular season rolled around, he was ranked in the QB10-12 range. He scored 11 more fantasy points than the year before (but ranked lower due to the insane QB totals posted last year). Had 2008 repeated itself QB scoring wire, he would have ranked 9th. I see nothing wrong with that based on what Dodds had projected. I'm also guessing that the cost for Garrard came at a hefty discount compared to other big name QBs, so your team should have been better at other spots by waiting on Garrard. Long story short, Garrard was not a wasted pick last year and many other players were a lot less productive than he was. Unfortunately, teams that only had Garrard would be on the short of QB scoring against most opponents, but that's why teams that wait on QB or use a QBBC need to have other options . . .

The biggest issue with Garrard was that he was a turd away from home last year. In eight road games, he averaged 197 passing yards and compiled three touchdowns against five picks. He failed to throw a touchdown pass in six of eight road games. On the positive tip, Garrard did post three rushing touchdowns, but he was still horrible. Bottom line: He sucked ###.

except that he didn't ...

yes he did. QB10 isnt going to help you when Brady/Peyton/Brees throw up 330 and 3 tds in the playoffs. your toast

 

[LawFitz]

After the big five: Ind, NO, GB, Dal, SD, there are some other potential high flyers with more risk: NE, Hou, Min, NYG, Phi and some deep sleepers with even more risk week to week.

I like the big five and maybe NE and then I feel left out in the cold somewhat.