JohnnyU
Footballguy
Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, and Jalin Hyatt
Kind of agree with this guy - https://www.youtube.com/shorts/otq1H3F4c4k
Kind of agree with this guy - https://www.youtube.com/shorts/otq1H3F4c4k
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Sell low on these rookie WRs? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
zamboni
Footballguy
Yeah, I think that YouTube guy is doing some lazy, misguided analysis on Hyatt based on his production for most of the season and the expectation that he'll be catching passes from Daniel Jones next year.
I agree to some extent that Quentin and Mingo may never be a thing, but it's also premature to bury guys right away. Not everyone comes out like Addison, Dell, etc. I think QJ's draft stock will keep him in the mix next year, although I don't expect the same for Mingo's 2nd round draft stock to be a factor, especially with a new regime coming in.
OTHO I was listening to Daniel Jeremiah and Brooks have a discussion a few weeks ago on WR's and they were saying the game kind of changed, that with so much 7 on 7 year round that WR's were coming into the league considerably more advanced and that if they did not show something in year one it was a giant red flag. They went on to say the list of WR's who did not show something, did not flash off the bat, did not have much of a solid history of turning it around the last few years. It's not such a developmental position any longer, don't need to be a finished product but need to show something.
I know I gave up on Skyy Moore, who I used first round picks, earlier then I've ever given up on a WR I've drafted that high. Traded him for peanuts this off-season, just straight cut him in two other leagues after like week 2 or 3, where he was picked up and cut again.
I'll make excuses for some players. Like health for someone like say Treylon Burks, but for the most part I need to see something by end of year one to hang my hat on or I'm moving on.
wlwiles
Footballguy
I may be lighting a pick on fire but I'm seriously considering offering 2024 late 2nd (hopefully the 2.12 as I'm in 1st place) for QJ to stack with my Herbert. The draft capital is there, Staley could be gone next year, and a 2.12 is almost getting into dart throw territory anyway (1QB league). Everything I've read about QJ (aside from everyone burying him already) is that he's being misused in the current offense.
I forgot to add I think QJ will also be under a new regime next year. 100% a new head coach.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
......and that new regime didn't draft him, so if he doesn't improve, I'm not so sure having a new regime is a good thing.
No not a good thing, I was trying to make the point he's probably going to be in the same boat as Mingo.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I liked Mingo and drafted him in a couple rookie drafts and startups. Managed to move him in all but one league while he still had some value. Just didn’t like what I saw from the whole team and got out as quickly as I could.
That said, I’m not sure I’d sell at todays prices. Leaning toward saying he’s JAG at best, but cannot rule out he wasn’t put in a hopeless situation for this year. And he was supposed to be more of a project to begin with. There is still a glimmer of hope that a new regime can fix Bryce and the offense in general, then maybe he takes a leap.
In general though, I agree with the idea of WRs need to flash year 1 now. And I’m looking very closely at the first half, even quarter of the season to update my thoughts about them. Got no problem moving on quickly if I don’t like what I see.
QJ was miles from my board in the first place, so he’d be an easy sell. Don’t have a strong opinion about Hyatt, but I’m not chasing too many Will Fuller types in this NFL.
That said, I’m not sure I’d sell at todays prices. Leaning toward saying he’s JAG at best, but cannot rule out he wasn’t put in a hopeless situation for this year. And he was supposed to be more of a project to begin with. There is still a glimmer of hope that a new regime can fix Bryce and the offense in general, then maybe he takes a leap.
In general though, I agree with the idea of WRs need to flash year 1 now. And I’m looking very closely at the first half, even quarter of the season to update my thoughts about them. Got no problem moving on quickly if I don’t like what I see.
QJ was miles from my board in the first place, so he’d be an easy sell. Don’t have a strong opinion about Hyatt, but I’m not chasing too many Will Fuller types in this NFL.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Feel like JJ Zachariason was laying out stats this off-season that pointed to this as well. They don't need to blow up to be immediate WR1s, but if their route success rates, YPRR, target share by end of season, etc. all look bleak... trending shows a very low percentage completely turn it around. It's not to say they won't be usable, but they are unlikely to be returning the draft capital you spent on them. There are always outliers, but statistically speaking a rookie who does nothing/looks bad year 1 tends to never become a top performing fantasy WR.
*obv. these "hit rates" all take another significant hit if that continues on in year two. More statistically significant after two years, but his argument was vs. the value they maintained in the community sometimes it's better to just sell while they still hold a higher value then hang on another year just to verify the first years results and then lose significant trade value.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I tend to agree with what they are saying and they put more time into evaluating these college players than I do by a ton.
I talked about this somewhat in the QJ thread. IIRC Davante Adams is the only star who took some time to develop into that. So he could be the exception, there does seem to always be one or more exceptions to any rule of thumb type opinion, but maybe people think he flashed enough as a rookie to not be an exception. What flashing means isn't clearly defined here.
I do think their point stands as far as WR being more developed now coming into the league compared to say 20 years ago when college teams were not quite as pass happy as they have become now.
I do think the excellent 2014 WR class has moved the needle a lot as far as our expectations about the development period for young WRs now. So I am still open to the possibility of the pendulum swinging back at some point, but we are almost 10 years past that point now, so if we don't have some other slow developing WR besides Adams emerge soon, there won't be much of a counter point to this debate.
Hyatt is a big buy IMO.
I'd be targeting Mingo and QJ if the price is low enough. CAR is a dumpster fire but cleaning house was a good start, Theilen has to retire at some point. Hard to know what you’ve got in Mingo with that situation. As for QJ as pointed out in his thread, Mike Williams looked like a bust his first season for the Chargers as well. QJ’s already doubled MW’s rookie production in as many games. It’s no guarantee of future success of course but a possible counterpoint to those already shoveling dirt on QJ. Not exactly apples to apples but look at a guy like Nico Collins, QJ’s on pace to come close to his rookie #’s. The Texans sucked but still produced a 1k yard receiver that year in Cooks kind of like Allen hoovering up the majority of targets for the Chargers right now.
I'd be targeting Mingo and QJ if the price is low enough. CAR is a dumpster fire but cleaning house was a good start, Theilen has to retire at some point. Hard to know what you’ve got in Mingo with that situation. As for QJ as pointed out in his thread, Mike Williams looked like a bust his first season for the Chargers as well. QJ’s already doubled MW’s rookie production in as many games. It’s no guarantee of future success of course but a possible counterpoint to those already shoveling dirt on QJ. Not exactly apples to apples but look at a guy like Nico Collins, QJ’s on pace to come close to his rookie #’s. The Texans sucked but still produced a 1k yard receiver that year in Cooks kind of like Allen hoovering up the majority of targets for the Chargers right now.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Adam Thielen might be considered a late bloomer here as well, he didn't put up significant numbers until his 3rd season in the NFL.
However there were extrutionating circumstances here that Thielen was not even drafted and so didn't really get the opportunity to show anything as he was behind other WR the Vikings had heavily invested into being ahead of him although he did show "flashes" by making plays in training camp his rookie season which is why he made the team.
Which brings us back to how do we define showing some flashes early on in these WR careers?
However there were extrutionating circumstances here that Thielen was not even drafted and so didn't really get the opportunity to show anything as he was behind other WR the Vikings had heavily invested into being ahead of him although he did show "flashes" by making plays in training camp his rookie season which is why he made the team.
Which brings us back to how do we define showing some flashes early on in these WR careers?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
OK maybe add Mike Williams to the list of WR who started producing after their rookie season to the list.
Who else?
I did look into this for awhile earlier this year but most of the late bloomers I found were prior to the 2014 season.
But I maybe didn't dig deep enough and there are some more examples out there.
I wouldn't consider Thielen into this discussion because his situation is so atypical. He wasn't really a late bloomer as much as he was a late get-a-chancer. But once he got a chance he ran with it.
zamboni
Footballguy
Tyler Lockett could be another one, but the list doesn't seem to be very long if we're talking only the last 10 years.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I agree.
He kind of beat out Cordarralle Patterson in rookie camp but since Patterson was a 1st round pick they had to give him a shot first.
2nd season Norv Turner was set on Mike Wallace starting and Diggs emerged ahead of Thielen as well. Thielen still ended up starting 2 games in year 2 though.
Then year 3 they couldn't really sit Thielen anymore even though they drafted Treadwell and still had Patterson also.
Thielen definitely earned his job. There were a lot of obstacles in his path to opportunity.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think Lockett "flashed" enough as a rookie. He did score 6 TD and the Seahawks threw less than 500 times with other incumbents splitting opportunities with him.
While the list may not be long, the longer the list is the stronger the case becomes for being paitient with these rookie WR.
While I do think there is a strong case for not waiting too long to make a decision they are rookies and I am not against giving rookies the benefit of the doubt either. That seems wise as well.
The Gator
Footballguy
Yeah I get writing guys off early. However, I had QJ and Mimms as avoids before the season. They’ve done nothing to change my mind there so it makes it a little easier.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same. QB situation has a lot to do with Hyatt, but QJ has hands of stone & I’ve never been a Mingo guy.
Gjallarhorn
Footballguy
I tend to give Mingo a bit more leash due to the complete incompetence at QB. There is no reason for QJ not to be producing right now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not just that but the total failure on the eye test
He’s had so much opportunity - dropping wide open would-be touchdowns that hit his hands in stride, and other concentration lapses.
He’s putting up a really bad resume, and it’s hard to give him any benefit of the doubt.
Occam’s razor: He’s just bad at football.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Jordy Nelson had 55 catches for ~660 yds and 4TDs in his first two seasons combined. Granted, he was stuck behind Donald Driver and Greg Jennings…..
BespokeJort
Footballguy
I love getting those types of guys for close to free but hate paying anything significant for em. I try to buy em at off-season roster cutdown time for a 3 or 4 at most
Biabreakable
Footballguy
When I have made rookie rankings I do so by trying to guess each players upside in terms of if they can become a top 12 RB/WR or top 13-24 RB/WR or top 25... RB/WR by their 3rd season in the NFL.
I know stuff happens. Players get hurt. Rookies just don't get it and they need a full offseason program to get their diet and training right to be the best they can be at their job. They need to earn the coaches trust and they need to earn playing time vs veteran players at their position who are doing everything they can to not lose their jobs to these players. There are other intangibles mixed in here as far as their development that I have likely failed to mention so far.
I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is the least productive on average for the first six seasons of their careers. I am willing to give them a pass if they don't put it all together as rookies and I look for them to make a big jump in their second season.
So why would that be any different for a WR who arguably has more to learn and develop than a RB does before reaching their full potential?
Well one thing is just a matter of scarcity. There are so many more WR in the NFL playing and fighting for targets compared to RBs who might time share but most running back by committees are also running back by competition, and once a RB has won that competition the lions share is theirs, while a WR might claw and scratch just to be the 2nd best WR on their team.
The bar is just higher for a WR to actually become fantasy relevant.
Yes there are 60 to 80 WR in the league at any time that might be considered a WR 3s in terms of fantasy point production, but that is part of the problem. There are 60 to 80 WRs who could be considered WR 3s in terms of fantasy production. So which of them is really worthy of large investment in terms of draft capital when there are so many of them? That type of production is a lot easier to replace with another 100 or so WR who might move up into that spectrum at any time. You have to be very selective and focus on the WR who might actually be able to become WR 2s for fantasy at some point from this large pool of players as a way of differentiating them.
With the RBs not so much. Its mostly about talent and opportunity. If they have talent the opportunity will come in one way or another. While their careers won't last as long its at least a bit easier to identify the RB who can put up difference making points compared to the tier 3 WRs where there are so many of them at parity.
Anyhow I would say by default that rookies are rookies and give them a 2nd season at least to fully show us who they are and who they can be regardless of position, but as counter intuitive as it may sound I think I am actually willing to be a little more patient with a RB than a WR because the payoff is higher with the RB. It just doesn't help my team enough waiting around for a WR to become a WR 3 as it does waiting for a RB to possibly become a RB 2 or even a RB 1 for a handful of games if things break right for them.
If the WR actually has the upside to be a difference maker like a semi consistent fantasy WR 2? I think they are going to show us that, and its more likely they show us that early on if they are going to show us that at all. Because the talent level has to be very high for them to reach that bar.
I know stuff happens. Players get hurt. Rookies just don't get it and they need a full offseason program to get their diet and training right to be the best they can be at their job. They need to earn the coaches trust and they need to earn playing time vs veteran players at their position who are doing everything they can to not lose their jobs to these players. There are other intangibles mixed in here as far as their development that I have likely failed to mention so far.
I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is the least productive on average for the first six seasons of their careers. I am willing to give them a pass if they don't put it all together as rookies and I look for them to make a big jump in their second season.
So why would that be any different for a WR who arguably has more to learn and develop than a RB does before reaching their full potential?
Well one thing is just a matter of scarcity. There are so many more WR in the NFL playing and fighting for targets compared to RBs who might time share but most running back by committees are also running back by competition, and once a RB has won that competition the lions share is theirs, while a WR might claw and scratch just to be the 2nd best WR on their team.
The bar is just higher for a WR to actually become fantasy relevant.
Yes there are 60 to 80 WR in the league at any time that might be considered a WR 3s in terms of fantasy point production, but that is part of the problem. There are 60 to 80 WRs who could be considered WR 3s in terms of fantasy production. So which of them is really worthy of large investment in terms of draft capital when there are so many of them? That type of production is a lot easier to replace with another 100 or so WR who might move up into that spectrum at any time. You have to be very selective and focus on the WR who might actually be able to become WR 2s for fantasy at some point from this large pool of players as a way of differentiating them.
With the RBs not so much. Its mostly about talent and opportunity. If they have talent the opportunity will come in one way or another. While their careers won't last as long its at least a bit easier to identify the RB who can put up difference making points compared to the tier 3 WRs where there are so many of them at parity.
Anyhow I would say by default that rookies are rookies and give them a 2nd season at least to fully show us who they are and who they can be regardless of position, but as counter intuitive as it may sound I think I am actually willing to be a little more patient with a RB than a WR because the payoff is higher with the RB. It just doesn't help my team enough waiting around for a WR to become a WR 3 as it does waiting for a RB to possibly become a RB 2 or even a RB 1 for a handful of games if things break right for them.
If the WR actually has the upside to be a difference maker like a semi consistent fantasy WR 2? I think they are going to show us that, and its more likely they show us that early on if they are going to show us that at all. Because the talent level has to be very high for them to reach that bar.
TripItUp
Footballguy
it all depends on the situation....I like all three of these players so likely wouldn't be selling low.
Mingo is a great talent but on a **** franchise...he's probably the guy I'd part with first of these three because of situation.
QJ has Herbert...I'm actually a buyer on him. Mike Williams is going to miss a lot of OTA and minicamps so QJ is going to have an opportunity to get reps and mature.
Hyatt is already flashing....he's turning into a sell high, not low.
Mims is more interesting to me...I was a huge buyer on him, and he's flashed but has basically fallen completely off the radar in terms of targets.
Mingo is a great talent but on a **** franchise...he's probably the guy I'd part with first of these three because of situation.
QJ has Herbert...I'm actually a buyer on him. Mike Williams is going to miss a lot of OTA and minicamps so QJ is going to have an opportunity to get reps and mature.
Hyatt is already flashing....he's turning into a sell high, not low.
Mims is more interesting to me...I was a huge buyer on him, and he's flashed but has basically fallen completely off the radar in terms of targets.
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rockaction
Footballguy
I drafted Hyatt with the 2.8 last year, which was a bit of a reach but he wasn't making it back around to my next pick (or so I thought). I'm not selling for cheap. I think he's got a clear-cut path to be WR1 for the Giants next year, and no matter who is throwing to him it's a good place to be.
Birdie048
Footballguy
He went 1.10 in my primary 12 Team league .. And trying to buy him, owner wants a 1st for him since that is "what he paid" and he won't sell short... even if he needs WR help for the playoffs... offered McLaurin in a Pick exchange package ... but FF life is all about risk/reward
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't see the great talent.
I just don't think he can play. He has 1 skill and that is running a sloppy 5 yard route and trying for YAC. That's not how an NFL WR can making a living.
Agree, he's at least matched his preseason value if not increased it. He's not a sell cheap. If they sign Cousins or draft a good young QB and his value is jumping up.
He's a buy low IMO. The lack of reps is a big concern but surely he can be had very very cheap.
