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Sell me on Mike Willams (TB) (1 Viewer)

The_Wolfman

Footballguy
There's been a ton of hype surrounding this guy during the pre-season, but I don't understand what it's all about. I don't follow the Bucs closely so I haven't seen him play, but from the outside it's hard to see why everyone is so excited about a rookie 4th round WR with a questionable QB situation. What makes this guy so great?

 
- He was a high 4th round draft pick despite a litany of off-field issues, which suggests that he might have been viewed as a 2nd-3rd round prospect on talent alone.

- He was a productive college player, averaging over 100 yards per game in 2009.

- He has the size and athletic ability of a #1 NFL WR.

- He has earned glowing reports throughout his entire time with the Bucs.

- He won the competition for the team's #1 WR job in a landslide.

The last point is the most important. Teams don't hand starting jobs to 4th round rookies unless they're really desperate or really impressed. All of the buzz about Williams makes me think it's more the latter and less the former. He's been stellar in practices. He's been stellar in preseason games. He's the clear #1 WR on a team that will be playing catch up more often than not.

I see shades of Michael Clayton/Eddie Royal/Marques Colston/Anquan Boldin. This guy has the talent/opportunity combination to be an FF starter from day one. I'm starting him with confidence in two leagues where I have viable alternatives because I expect a strong season from Little Mike Williams (LMW).

 
Watch him and you'll understand. He's talented and physical and he's the #1 wr. He's relatively cheap with nice upside, what's not to like.

 
He was a 1st round grade but dropped due to character concerns in the draft. Several sources have confirmed this.

 
Teams don't hand starting jobs to 4th round rookies unless they're really desperate or really impressed. All of the buzz about Williams makes me think it's more the latter and less the former.
Why isn't it the former?
 
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1. He's only $19.99

2. He'll make your floors shine like never before

3. If you act now, we'll throw in a free extra bottle of Mike Williams (TB) hotsauce.

 
Otis said:
Teams don't hand starting jobs to 4th round rookies unless they're really desperate or really impressed. All of the buzz about Williams makes me think it's more the latter and less the former.
Why isn't it the former?
That's what I was wondering about. Who did he even have to beat out to be the #1 WR? Maurice Stovall, Reggie Brown and an injured Arrelious Benn? Not exactly a hall of fame group they have there. Can any Tampa homers chime in on what they expect out of the offense this year?
 
Otis said:
Teams don't hand starting jobs to 4th round rookies unless they're really desperate or really impressed. All of the buzz about Williams makes me think it's more the latter and less the former.
Why isn't it the former?
The fact that coaches clearly and decisively made him the WR1 almost immediately says a lot about the separation that he displayed between himself and the rest of the WRs on the roster. I think we can agree that it's not a Herculean feat to beat out the likes of Brown/Clayton/Stovall/Stroughter/Benn, but those guys are NFL caliber WRs and it's pretty impressive that a rookie was able to lap them immediately. If his WR1 promotion been based more on desperation and less on merit, it wouldn't have happened so rapidly and his WR1 status wouldn't be so firm. Williams is probably still undervalued in dynasty and definitely undervalued in redraft. I can't think of many reasons not to like his chances this season besides the fact that he's a rookie who hasn't proven his ability in meaningful games yet.
 
Banger said:
Watch him and you'll understand.
Yes. I don't really get the OP, he hasn't been paying attention, and hasn't seen the kid, and is questioning why there is hype. Going to a team that has been bad doesn't mean he cannot be a great player, or put up numbers. Steve Smith put up numbers on bad teams, lots of players do it, and they do it every year. Just go to nfl.com, and watch the Bucs highlights. Great WRs, when they are young, what you want them to show as rookies is exactly what Williams showed this preseason. It's a long way to go before he is a known quantity, and people can trust him to start for them, but (and I said this before), if he was on the Ravens or Jets, was a late 1st or 2nd round pick, and had this preseason, there would be hysteria. Take advantage of the fact that this kid is playing for Tampa, and off the radar a bit.
 
Banger said:
Watch him and you'll understand.
Yes. I don't really get the OP, he hasn't been paying attention, and hasn't seen the kid, and is questioning why there is hype. Going to a team that has been bad doesn't mean he cannot be a great player, or put up numbers. Steve Smith put up numbers on bad teams, lots of players do it, and they do it every year. Just go to nfl.com, and watch the Bucs highlights. Great WRs, when they are young, what you want them to show as rookies is exactly what Williams showed this preseason. It's a long way to go before he is a known quantity, and people can trust him to start for them, but (and I said this before), if he was on the Ravens or Jets, was a late 1st or 2nd round pick, and had this preseason, there would be hysteria. Take advantage of the fact that this kid is playing for Tampa, and off the radar a bit.
So we should roll with this guy this week as a WR# 3 right?
 
Banger said:
Watch him and you'll understand.
Yes. I don't really get the OP, he hasn't been paying attention, and hasn't seen the kid, and is questioning why there is hype. Going to a team that has been bad doesn't mean he cannot be a great player, or put up numbers. Steve Smith put up numbers on bad teams, lots of players do it, and they do it every year. Just go to nfl.com, and watch the Bucs highlights. Great WRs, when they are young, what you want them to show as rookies is exactly what Williams showed this preseason. It's a long way to go before he is a known quantity, and people can trust him to start for them, but (and I said this before), if he was on the Ravens or Jets, was a late 1st or 2nd round pick, and had this preseason, there would be hysteria. Take advantage of the fact that this kid is playing for Tampa, and off the radar a bit.
So we should roll with this guy this week as a WR# 3 right?
Well, I think anyone that has MW as a #3 either took a wrong turn somewhere, or has really nice QB and RB depth.
 
Banger said:
Watch him and you'll understand.
Yes. I don't really get the OP, he hasn't been paying attention, and hasn't seen the kid, and is questioning why there is hype. Going to a team that has been bad doesn't mean he cannot be a great player, or put up numbers. Steve Smith put up numbers on bad teams, lots of players do it, and they do it every year. Just go to nfl.com, and watch the Bucs highlights. Great WRs, when they are young, what you want them to show as rookies is exactly what Williams showed this preseason. It's a long way to go before he is a known quantity, and people can trust him to start for them, but (and I said this before), if he was on the Ravens or Jets, was a late 1st or 2nd round pick, and had this preseason, there would be hysteria. Take advantage of the fact that this kid is playing for Tampa, and off the radar a bit.
So we should roll with this guy this week as a WR# 3 right?
I would treat him about the same as Dez Bryant. what I saw was excellent leaping ability and abilty to control his body in midair. I think he will be an awesome red zone target, but may need to refine his route running a bit. you have to remember he is a rookie, and there will be some growing pains there. In my 12 team league where you start 3 WR's he would be treated as a backup for now. I dont have him on my team, but if I did he would be my #4 guy. I'd predict about 800-900 yards receiving and I would guess the first 2-3 weeks of the year will be where he learns what it really takes to be a pro. so I wouldnt start him right away.by mid season you may be starting him, but I wouldnt start him yet. Just stash him on your roster for a couple weeks and see how he does before choosing to start him.
 
I'm starting MW as my #3, confidently I might add...

love what the kid has shown in his entire career to this point... I expect midrange wr2 out of him by season end.

 
I think he has a realistic chance at 1000 yards this year. I would say that a reasonable expectation for an average week would be 4 catches for 70 yards with a 40% chance at a TD.

 
I think he has a realistic chance at 1000 yards this year. I would say that a reasonable expectation for an average week would be 4 catches for 70 yards with a 40% chance at a TD.
If he achieved those numbers, would you say he would be a sell high candidate in dynasty leagues? The last person to break 1000 yards in their rookie year was Colston in 2006
 
I think he has a realistic chance at 1000 yards this year. I would say that a reasonable expectation for an average week would be 4 catches for 70 yards with a 40% chance at a TD.
If he achieved those numbers, would you say he would be a sell high candidate in dynasty leagues? The last person to break 1000 yards in their rookie year was Colston in 2006
I think he would be a hold. Maybe a sell if you're worried about his character problems or Benn overshadowing him.
 
In a redraft, you have to temper your enthusiasm. I posted this elsewhere but Fantasy Football Index states there is a slim chance that Freeman is going to impove his performance. Improvement in QB production does not usually occur in year 1 to 2. The increased production is only a result of more starts (meaning his averages should remain close to the same with no spike in production). That should put Freeman in the 18 TD range.

There's probably not a lot of TD's to get excited about for any WR.

 
In a redraft, you have to temper your enthusiasm. I posted this elsewhere but Fantasy Football Index states there is a slim chance that Freeman is going to impove his performance. Improvement in QB production does not usually occur in year 1 to 2. The increased production is only a result of more starts (meaning his averages should remain close to the same with no spike in production). That should put Freeman in the 18 TD range. There's probably not a lot of TD's to get excited about for any WR.
This is a very good point. And add to that Freeman is on the injury report with his thumb. This gets mentioned intermittently but tends to get drowned by the hype and enthusiasm of preseason. Everybody COULD win the SB or be the MVP/ROY this time of year after all. Still, a key target, even on a low power offense, could be great in FF, especially in a PPR. Welker doesn't score a ton of TD's either but that's not where he makes you money. Rather, its in the fact that he gets like 10-12 targets a contest or 15+ ffpts or so like clockwork. Sims-Walker was extremely consistent last year for this reason. I can see this kid having a somewhat similar season and situation as MSW of last year.I agree we need to temper the love with the situation but I'm really glad to be on this particular bandwagon.
 
I think he has a realistic chance at 1000 yards this year. I would say that a reasonable expectation for an average week would be 4 catches for 70 yards with a 40% chance at a TD.
History tells us this is very unlikely.. I am doubtful. For one, TB stinks. Their D will be bad. Their running game will be bad. The passing game will be bad. They won't score a lot of points. 4 win team, here.So he's a "first round talent". Maybe, but that doesn't matter. Even first round WR struggle in year one. Pretty much all of them, no matter how talented. Nobody's talking about Thomas or Dez Bryant. Hakeem Nicks is a stud, didn't get 1000 yards last year. He may even lead the Bucs in receiving. But if he does, IMO, it's to the tune of 750/3. I do not think TB has a 1,000 yard WR in that passing game.I agree the kid has talent. And for a dynasty league, particularly PPR, I'd love it. Freeman to Williams, all day baby.In 2 years, though.
 
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Watch him and you'll understand.
Yes. I don't really get the OP, he hasn't been paying attention, and hasn't seen the kid, and is questioning why there is hype. Going to a team that has been bad doesn't mean he cannot be a great player, or put up numbers. Steve Smith put up numbers on bad teams, lots of players do it, and they do it every year. Just go to nfl.com, and watch the Bucs highlights. Great WRs, when they are young, what you want them to show as rookies is exactly what Williams showed this preseason. It's a long way to go before he is a known quantity, and people can trust him to start for them, but (and I said this before), if he was on the Ravens or Jets, was a late 1st or 2nd round pick, and had this preseason, there would be hysteria. Take advantage of the fact that this kid is playing for Tampa, and off the radar a bit.
So we should roll with this guy this week as a WR# 3 right?
I am. Own him in several leagues but he's only going to start in one. In a league with only 5 bench spots (9 starters, 5 bench spots) he will be my #3 this week. My other option (singular) is Mike Wallace. I could chicken out and plug in Wallace but it's unlikely due to Dixon. Santonio Holmes is taking one of my 5 precious bench spots.
 
I almost think the Rams Clayton and Amendole may be better than Williams this year because Bradford is so much more accurate that Freeman. The only reason that may be wrong is because the Rams will run the ball a lot with SJax and because there isn't a true #1 for the Rams. Clayton, Robinson and Amendole may split the receptions, while Williams is their main target.

 
I am. Own him in several leagues but he's only going to start in one. In a league with only 5 bench spots (9 starters, 5 bench spots) he will be my #3 this week. My other option (singular) is Mike Wallace. I could chicken out and plug in Wallace but it's unlikely due to Dixon. Santonio Holmes is taking one of my 5 precious bench spots.
I'm starting Mike Williams over Wallace in my WR/TE flex. I don't trust Dixon, either. :mellow:
 
In a redraft, you have to temper your enthusiasm. I posted this elsewhere but Fantasy Football Index states there is a slim chance that Freeman is going to impove his performance. Improvement in QB production does not usually occur in year 1 to 2. The increased production is only a result of more starts (meaning his averages should remain close to the same with no spike in production). That should put Freeman in the 18 TD range. There's probably not a lot of TD's to get excited about for any WR.
This is a very good point. And add to that Freeman is on the injury report with his thumb. This gets mentioned intermittently but tends to get drowned by the hype and enthusiasm of preseason. Everybody COULD win the SB or be the MVP/ROY this time of year after all. Still, a key target, even on a low power offense, could be great in FF, especially in a PPR. Welker doesn't score a ton of TD's either but that's not where he makes you money. Rather, its in the fact that he gets like 10-12 targets a contest or 15+ ffpts or so like clockwork. Sims-Walker was extremely consistent last year for this reason. I can see this kid having a somewhat similar season and situation as MSW of last year.I agree we need to temper the love with the situation but I'm really glad to be on this particular bandwagon.
This is the correct answer. :grad:
 
I'm really surprised with his ranking by Dodds this week especially when you add to that how low his QB's ranking is as well.

 
Actually the takeaway from the TD is Freeman threw it way behind him, but Tampa Mike had the ball tracking skills and werewithal to grab it and keep his feet inbounds.

 
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His touchdown was incredible concentration. Tracked a tipped ball and got both feet down in the back of the end zone. Really nice play.

He also smoked a corner in the 4th quarter and was wide open at the 5 yard line, but Freeman missed him. Josh said after the game that Mike was almost too wide open

 
killrobotkill said:
I didn't see the game - did he get a decent amount of targets? Any dropsies?
I don't know about drops, but he was the most targeted player on the Bucs with 9 of em. Had Freeman not misthrown so horribly on what would've been an easy TD for the wide open Williams, he would've had a 6 receptions, 83 yards, 2 TD day and he'd be one of the hottest adds on the waiver wire. The kid is legit and Freeman is gonna look for him a ton.
 
killrobotkill said:
I didn't see the game - did he get a decent amount of targets? Any dropsies?
I don't know about drops, but he was the most targeted player on the Bucs with 9 of em. Had Freeman not misthrown so horribly on what would've been an easy TD for the wide open Williams, he would've had a 6 receptions, 83 yards, 2 TD day and he'd be one of the hottest adds on the waiver wire. The kid is legit and Freeman is gonna look for him a ton.
Here is a clip of Freeman overthrowing Williams.

EDIT: He was also open on another bomb, but had to slow down on the underthrown ball and lost it.

 
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Mike Williams-WR-Buccaneers Sep. 13 - 11:58 am et Josh Freeman admits that rookie Mike Williams should have had a second touchdown in the Week 1 win over Cleveland, as he overthrew Williams one play before he connected with Micheal Spurlock for a 33-yard score."He was just… so… wide… open," Freeman said. "I overthrew him. It should've been an easy touchdown. I apologized to Mike because… that should've been his touchdown." Williams is easily the team's best receiver and appears ready to cash in on the "sleeper" tag he was given during the offseason.Rotoworld
 
killrobotkill said:
I didn't see the game - did he get a decent amount of targets? Any dropsies?
I don't know about drops, but he was the most targeted player on the Bucs with 9 of em. Had Freeman not misthrown so horribly on what would've been an easy TD for the wide open Williams, he would've had a 6 receptions, 83 yards, 2 TD day and he'd be one of the hottest adds on the waiver wire. The kid is legit and Freeman is gonna look for him a ton.
Here is a clip of Freeman overthrowing Williams.

EDIT: He was also open on another bomb, but had to slow down on the underthrown ball and lost it.
Wobbling duck tossed up there by Freeman, looks like that thumb is still bothering him. Here's a clearer video of his touchdown catch: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-pl...tacular-TD-snag

The ball was thrown well behind him, but he's able to make an unbelievable adjustment on the tip and come down with it in the endzone. What I like most about that play is even though he looked like he was already going to come down in bounds he still has the presence of mind to drag his feet to make sure.

 
Otis said:
captbly said:
M. Williams 5 rec 30 yards 1 Td

did ok in my PPR league.
The 1TD was a deflected ball. Not a routinely executed play. For whatever that is worth.
:confused: Freeman threw threw the ball behind him and didn't appear to have enough zip on the ball all day long. The bright side is that he almost had a huge TD that Joe Haden broke up and another one that Freeman missed him on. He was clearly the #1 target for Freeman and got a few Red-Zone targets.

He should have had 3 TDs yesterday.

 
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As the topic creator I have to say I've bought into this kid and added him to my team. All of my leaguemates must not be FBGs because he was available on the WW. Leaning strongly towards rolling him out there against Carolina. :ptts:

 
:confused: Not sure why some are giving the impression TMW caught a tipped pass for a TD is a negative.... The fact is, he was the intended target. My only reservation about him is Freeman's thumb injury; it clearly affected a couple passes I saw. I know this is a young QB/WR combo, but if Freeman's thumb were 100%, I'd feel very comfortable starting TMW as my WR3 every single week.
 

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