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Seventh Heaven: The Top 7 Fantasy Rookie RB's for 2009 (2 Viewers)

JGalligan

Footballguy
While the 2009 Draft didn't have a super-flashy, number-one consensus pick, the class as a whole does look to have a lot of depth and could potentially turn out to be very deep indeed.

In the interests of putting everything into perspective so that it can be better organized and put into useful form, I've gone and done the UNTHINKABLE and ranked the Top 7 rookie running backs of 2009 as I see them, followed by some honorable mentions dealing with some toss-ups and late round super-sleepers.

So go and get a drink, put on your slippers, do some push-ups -- whatever it is that your crazy ### does to get ready to read some delicious fantasy football analysis. Please don't hesitate to print this bad-boy out and take it with you on your marathon outings into the bathroom either. Nothing makes bathroom reading better than rookie running back rankings (in my opinion, at least).

Ready. Steady. GO!

7. Donald Brown (IND)

I like Brown a lot, but just can't shake the feeling that Joseph Addai isn't going anywhere anytime soon and as long as Peyton Manning is the QB, the Colts RB2 would be worth a serious look only in much deeper leagues.

For Addai owners though, it's obvious that Brown would be a viable and practically mandatory handcuff unless you want to be beating yourself with a toaster if Addai possibly goes down with an injury and Brown steps into the starter role and starts tearing it up. That's never fun. Oh no!

On the skill set front though, Donald Brown is an absolute beast of a workhorse. He had a ridiculous 367 carries last year en route to 2,083 yards and 18 touchdowns. While 2,083 yards is certainly impressive no matter what division it was accomplished in, I'm much more impressed and infatuated with those 367 carries. Say what you want about his yardage totals and how they correlate to less-than-stellar opposing defenses, but no matter how poor the defenses you face are, if you run the rock 367 times than you my friend are what I like to call, "a house".

Bottom line: An extremely tempting handcuff for any and all Addai owners as well as a worthy "roll the dice" pick in deeper leagues. This kid has the potential to be an absolute train of a workhorse RB and is also one of the best off-the-field rookie prospects there is. This kid has his #### together and you won't have to worry about him being suspended for a few games during the season for trying to stab a taxi cab driver or something.

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): :lmao:

6. James Davis (CLE)

Despite the fact that Eric Mangini has gone on record to state that he plans to use Jerome Harrison frequently in a spell roll for rumbling, bumbling starting RB Jamal Lewis, we should all take this with a grain of salt since this is, in fact, Eric Mangini we're talking about here.

Seriously though, while it remains to be seen if Browns rookie RB James Davis' skill set will be more worthwhile for the Browns to use to spell Lewis this year instead of Harrison, we can take a look at the formers career stats thus far and then go from there.

Jerome Harrisons career statistics (2006-08): 77 carries for 448 yards (5.8 average), 1 TD and 23 receptions for 182 yards and 1 TD

Not bad until you take into account that he's only ran the ball an average of 25 times per year and most of these carries came near the end of games when the defense had become weakened by a constant barrage of Jamal Lewis' He-Man runs.

So what you really have to do is decide whether or not you think Harrison is going to keep up this fantastic pace when the team starts to use him more in the rushing game. Personally, I don't think he will and would be best used on third-and-long, Wildcat or special RB/WR-reverse type plays and situations.

Davis on the other hand has solid speed, is consistent and has stayed healthy for nearly his entire career. Although he split carries in 2008 with fellow Clemson RB C.J. Spiller, Davis still managed to rack up 751 yards rushing and cross the goal line a total of 11 times despite only 171 carries. He also tacked on 14 receptions for 123 yards as well.

In 2006 and 2007 Davis had much better years as the teams feature back and nearly left school early to declare for the NFL Draft, but instead decided to go back to school and finish up his degree. In those two years combined, Davis amassed a total of 2,251 yards on the ground from 417 carries (5.3 average) and 27 touchdowns. So while many people have been less than impressed with Davis' 2008 campaign, it seems that the young rookie does a lot better when he's the one getting the majority of the carries.

With Jamal Lewis not getting any younger – especially from his style of running that, while punishing to opposing defenders, certainly can't be good for his own body either, it's really going to come down to whether James Davis can outshine Jerome Harrison to claim the future starting role. You also have to wonder if they'll both perform well and we'll be seeing them transition into a fearsome, two-headed RBBC once Jamal Lewis hangs up his train cleats.

With Brady Quinn a definite possibility to become the Browns starting QB (it'd be a near certainty if anyone but Mangini was at the coaching helm), the opportunity for lots and lots of carries is definitely something that could become a reality.

Bottom line: No matter of how you think the Browns RB situation will unfold just make sure you keep your eye on James Davis.

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): :shock: 1/2

5. LeSean McCoy (PHI)

The heir apparent to the Brian Westbrook era, LeSean McCoy might not see too much on-the-field action in 2009. Or then again, he very well could.

Let's focus on what we know.

Brian Westbrook is rare and special talent who, while getting up there in age, certainly has a ways to go before he's ready to be replaced for good. We also know that the entire Eagles offense runs through, around, and on top of the versatile star. Add to this that Westbrook rarely leaves the field because he can run, catch and block equally well and what you're left with is a puzzled look on your face as you try and predict how much on-the-field playing time rookie RB LeSean McCoy will see.

Well, again, let's focus on what we KNOW.

We know that there's a definite possibility that McCoy could be the featured star of the Eagles own Wildcat formation, should they decide to run it very often this year. But with the success that the formation has had thus far in the league, it would probably be a safe bet to assume that this will end up becoming a reality.

We also know that the only real threat for the RB2 job in regards to McCoy is Lorenzo Booker who again, as we know, is no real threat at all (2.7 rushing average last year).

Taking a look at the past, last year's backup to Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, was given 76 carries on the year. Buckhalter was also the backup in 2006 and 2007 as well and was actually given 83 and 62 carries in those years respectively. Now, in an effort to steer clear of trying to forecast injuries too much, those three yearly carry totals give us a pretty solid look at how the Eagles dish out rushes to their RB2's.

It's not out of the question to think that McCoy will get 75 carries this year as well as at least 25 Wildcat plays (again, if they choose to use the formation) to put him at the century mark for touches. For a backup to a player like Westbrook that is on the field so much, that isn't bad. It isn't bad at all.

Bottom line: An even MORE mandatory handcuff for Westbrook owners, especially when you consider that McCoy is just as versatile and would be given just as much focus should Westbrook go down. But as we just mapped out, even as an RB2, McCoy is definitely worth a look if you like what you've seen from him.

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): :lmao: :excited:

4. Bernard Scott (CIN)

Rookie RB Bernard Scott has found himself on a Bengals squad in which he is surrounded by mediocre, patchwork running backs on the depth chart. This fact alone would make him a promising chance to see a lot of playing time and even become the starter, but luckily (for the Bengals), there's a whole lot more.

Scott was a BEAST in college, racking up more than 4,200 yards and finding the end zone 62 times in just TWO years at Abilene Christian University. It's been reported that the Bengals are VERY impressed with his quickness and speed when getting to the perimeter. This kids athleticism is obviously already on the NFL level and he has a small level of competition for the starting job – so why isn't everyone ranting and raving over him?

Well, in typical Cincinnati Bengal fashion, Scott was drafted despite the fact that he's had some pretty hefty off-the-field issues, reportedly bring arrested five different times and playing for THREE other colleges before Abilene Christian. You know, cause it's not like the Bengals have had problems with their players off-the-field criminal activity before…

Seriously, not only will it be a travesty if this kids talent is never allowed to come to fruition because of his off-the-field troubles, it will be absolutely disgusting that the Bengals allowed it to happen again. I sincerely hope their lax disciplinary rules in regards to this stuff doesn't contribute from robbing us of the opportunity to potentially see this kid blossom into a star.

Bottom line: He's a risk and a big one at that, but along with big-risk, comes big-reward. The choice is yours, young grasshopper!

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): :excited: :excited: 1/2

3. Shonn Greene (NYJ)

If you haven't yet heard about Shonn Greene and how the Jets organization was literally giggling with glee when he fell into their lap on day two of the Draft, then you MIGT want to go about finding a new crew of whom you can discuss football with, because Greene is as hot a topic as there is currently in regards to the rookie class.

Green promptly exploded onto the college football scene last year when he absolutely TORE it UP with 307 carries for 1,850 yards and 20 TD's. He had 8 receptions for 49 yards too but as you can see, that's really not worth mentioning because he's more of a runner than a receiver.

New Jets head coach Rex Ryan was very happy with the teams acquisition of Greene and the teams running back coach Anthony Lynn actually had Greene as his #1 RB prospect in the entire draft. That's almost certainly a lie but I'm sure he had him ranked pretty high up and was very surprised he was taken in day one of the Draft.

Rex Ryan is all about running the rock and playing a hard-nosed, smash mouth, conservative style of football that will most certainly be enhanced with the inevitability of either an inexperienced or rookie QB about to take the signal calling duties.

To sum it up, the Jets are going to run the football a lot and they are going to run the football successfully. They have one of the best offensive lines in the game and although Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are on the RB depth chart as well, Jones will be 31 this season which is practically AARP worthy in "running back years" (like cats and dogs) and Washington is the teams resident sparkplug whom is not played too often in order to maximize his effectiveness.

There is risk in banking too highly on Greene however, since Jones could have another stellar year and Washington could dazzle with a few big plays out the get-go while Greene is still struggling to get up to NFL speed.

However looking down the road, Jones is going to be gone soon and the Greene/Washington duo RBBC has a lot of potential and would also most certainly see Greene as the RB1 of the bunch. The Jets could very well play a card out of the Patriots and Giants books and run a three player RBBC.

If Greene can translate well enough, he should be given enough carries to at least be a spot-starter or even full-starter should Jones go down. He'd also be a very nice handcuff for Jones as well, but I'm sure you already knew that didn't you?

Bottom line: There's a reason that there's a ton of buzz around this kid. But don't be swept up in it too much, because while he has a lot of upside, he also has some road blocks that could stand in his way to truly fulfilling his potential (for THIS year at least).

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): :excited: :excited: 1/2

2. Knowshon Moreno (DEN)

Say whaaaaaaat!?

I know, I know, but please bear with me. All will soon be revealed to you, just have some patience. Please and thank you.

To start off, here's a list of the current Denver running backs on the roster (in addition to Moreno of course):

Correll Buckhalter

LaMont Jordan

Darius Walker

Ryan Torain

Now even though Mike "I pioneered the RBBC and get incredibly rosy red cheeks in cold weather games" Shanahan is no longer the head coach, you still have to expect the team to use some kind of RBBC along with Moreno – especially when you consider that Buckhalter and Jordan were brought in this past off-season and Ryan Torain hasn't exactly proven to be a bust by any means at all.

On the Moreno front, he certainly has the talent to outclass all of the others and be the RB1 in the committee, but with so many running backs… I don't know. I'm just not as incredibly excited as some other people may be about him.

It's certainly not enough to warrant not taking a good, hard and serious look at him, but as you can see from this article, there's plenty of other rookie running backs available that will probably end up being just as good as him – if not better.

Bottom line: He's the best running back on a team with a sea of running backs that the team is probably going to try and utilize all of. The kid sure is talented, though, that's for sure.

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): :excited: :excited: :excited:

1. Chris Wells (ARI)

You may disagree, but I think the whole Hightower bandwagon last year had a lot to do with Edgerrin James early season knack for being a mortal lock to have a 2.1 rushing average per game. Hightower would be given three chances in a row on the goal-line and BAM! He's a end-zone nosed juggernaut powerhouse!

Color me unimpressed.

Chris Wells on the other hand (I refuse to use his nickname), is everything that people were making Hightower out to be last year AND then some. He's tough. He's edgy. He wanted to sacrifice long-term injury last year to play in some of Ohio State's big time games. He's been injured here and there, but that can probably be explained away by his never-say-die nature and knack for taking it right into the teeth of the defensive time after time.

Not only is he a hard-nosed runner, but he has just enough breakaway speed to potentially be a game-breaking RB as well. Ken Whisenhunt is of the Pittsburgh, smash mouth football mold and I for one think that he likes to succeed on the first smash mouth attempt and not the third or sometimes fourth… (I'm looking at you Mr. Hightower)

Wells is surely going to share some of the playing time with Hightower but I just don't see it being split too evenly if Wells skill set transitions to the NFL like everyone thinks it will. The situation in Arizona that he landed in was perhaps one of the best possible with its lethal air attack, strong offensive line, and veteran QB who will tell him what needs to be done.

Bottom line: Apparently some things turn out NOT too good to be true after all!

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces): :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited:

Honorable mentions (consider them a 1/4 to 1/2, "Wow I am excited" face):

Javon Ringer (TEN), Glen Coffee (SF)

Commence your feedback and analysis!

 
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Good read but Brown at #7 is just silly. :goodposting:
Maybe so, but I still think a lot of people are underestimating and forgetting what Addai can do when he's running on all cylinders.But I can definitely see where people would think Brown was too low. I like him a lot as both a player and a person and actually hope he does well, but don't think the Colts are going to utilize him as much as some of the other RB's on the list -- potentially.Then again, you never know. We'll see!
 
As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).

In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:

23rd in rushing attempts

24th in rushing yards

19th in rushing TD

24th in ypc

That's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.

I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal.

I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).

And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.

Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.

Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.

 
Good read but Brown at #7 is just silly. :goodposting:
Maybe so, but I still think a lot of people are underestimating and forgetting what Addai can do when he's running on all cylinders.But I can definitely see where people would think Brown was too low. I like him a lot as both a player and a person and actually hope he does well, but don't think the Colts are going to utilize him as much as some of the other RB's on the list -- potentially.Then again, you never know. We'll see!
In looking at this year only I can see where you might rank Brown that low.Bernard Scott looks too high IMO and since in most re-draft leagues he will probably be waiver wire fodder, worth keeping an eye on though, or snaggin him with round17 pick
 
As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:23rd in rushing attempts24th in rushing yards19th in rushing TD24th in ypcThat's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal. I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.
I'm saying this off the top of my head since I don't know who they had back in day, but since when have they had an above-averagely skilled RB with which to run?
 
I'm saying this off the top of my head since I don't know who they had back in day, but since when have they had an above-averagely skilled RB with which to run?
Even if we say Wells is above average (which at this point certainly is a guess but not yet proven), when have they had a decent OL, a decent defense, did not pass profusely, and had guys that could block.To answer your question, Ronald Moore, Garrison Heart, Adrian Murrell, and Edge all had 1,000 yard russing seasons. Emmitt Smith was past his prime but not totally terrible. They also had Michael Pittman, Thomas Jones, and Marcel Shipp . . . all of whom were decent at one point or another either on or off of the Cardinals.
 
As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:23rd in rushing attempts24th in rushing yards19th in rushing TD24th in ypcThat's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal. I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.
I'm saying this off the top of my head since I don't know who they had back in day, but since when have they had an above-averagely skilled RB with which to run?
:clap: Thomas Jones started looking like a heck of an RB shortly after leaving ARI.....
 
Nice list though I disagree with the placement of Brown and Wells in particular. Also wanted to add that the early word from OTAs in Denver is that Torain still does not have a timetable for his return to full practices and may not be ready for minicamp in July. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him start the season on the PUP list.

 
As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:23rd in rushing attempts24th in rushing yards19th in rushing TD24th in ypcThat's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal. I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.
It is kind of strange how unproductive they've been at the position. Jones couldn't seem to do anything until he left. James had 2 "decent" years, but he was obviously a player on the downside of his career when he got there. Ask yourselft this...take away the fact that it is Arizona...keep the QB...keep the O-line...keep all their great wideouts...keep Whis as coach...put them in Chicago...and would you still feel this way? Cause it just doesn't make sense to me to just look at a team's history beyond the current coaching regime as a predictor for failure.
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.

 
As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:23rd in rushing attempts24th in rushing yards19th in rushing TD24th in ypcThat's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal. I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.
It is kind of strange how unproductive they've been at the position. Jones couldn't seem to do anything until he left. James had 2 "decent" years, but he was obviously a player on the downside of his career when he got there. Ask yourselft this...take away the fact that it is Arizona...keep the QB...keep the O-line...keep all their great wideouts...keep Whis as coach...put them in Chicago...and would you still feel this way? Cause it just doesn't make sense to me to just look at a team's history beyond the current coaching regime as a predictor for failure.
Yeah and I would think Whisenhunt would be working his hardest at trying to build a formidable running game and turn their franchises ills around.But again, Wells could be a bust for all we know. If he isn't though, I just don't see how they wouldn't try and build up some kind of respectable rushing attack. The fact that their passing game is so ridiculous should even go so far as to help things open up for the running game.And I would like to add that the Cardinals have been historically horrible for much of their franchises history -- so that may be to blame as well.
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
 
It is kind of strange how unproductive they've been at the position. Jones couldn't seem to do anything until he left. James had 2 "decent" years, but he was obviously a player on the downside of his career when he got there. Ask yourselft this...take away the fact that it is Arizona...keep the QB...keep the O-line...keep all their great wideouts...keep Whis as coach...put them in Chicago...and would you still feel this way? Cause it just doesn't make sense to me to just look at a team's history beyond the current coaching regime as a predictor for failure.
OK . . . so you have a passing team that now plays in Chicago that still doesn't run block well. They'd still have almost twice as many passing attempts as running attempts and would move the ball far more effectively through the air. So to answer what I think you are asking, I still would not see that as a great environment for a RB.BTW, I am not suggesting that the Cardinlas will automatically "fail" in running the football, I am only indicating that IMO there is lesser chance of "success" (and thus being a strong running team). Arizona may go from Bottom 3 to Bottom 10 in running with Wells. I would not call that "successful." I would say that that's an improvement . . . but that to me does not necessarily equate to strong fantasy totals.
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
Yah i did. I guess i just don't think Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, or Ryan Torain are talented enough to keep Moreno off the field.
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
Yah i did. I guess i just don't think Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, or Ryan Torain are talented enough to keep Moreno off the field.
Fair point. You very well could be right. I guess it's all going to depend on how Josh McDaniels wants to run the rushing game, but I refer you to the massively large RBBC the Patriots ran last year with him as the offensive coordinator.
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
I could be way off here but I find it hard to believe Moreno's situation can be that much worse than Wells' in Arizona. Denver drafted Moreno with the #12 pick over any front 7 player they coveted at that spot including Orakpo and Ayers. That alone tells me they think Moreno is the type of guy who can have an instant impact for the offense. Moreno has also been touted as one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. Having watched Moreno play, I have no doubt that he is the most complete and gifted RB on the Denver roster right now. Look who we are comparing him to: LaMont Jordan who was brought in partly because he knows the complex offensive system and can help teach it to his fellow RBs (a la the Jabar Gaffney signing) and Correll Buckhalter who has shown flashes but lacks the burst and complete game that Moreno has. Darius Walker screams camp fodder and Torain is still healing form a nasty knee injury. I think people are making more out of the Denver RBBC than they should be at this point.
 
The other thing that concerns me with the Cardinals even with Whisenhunt there for two years now is that teams overplayed the pass and Arizona STILL couldn't run the ball. It's not like teams knew they were going to run and stacked 8 or 9 guys in the box. Most of the time the secondary played off the line and teams were in nickel or dime coverage to try to combat the passing machine. So in theory, Arizona should have had the upper hand in running the ball and even mediocre backs should have been able to get 4-5 yards with only 5 or 6 guys near the line of scrimmage.

 
As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:23rd in rushing attempts24th in rushing yards19th in rushing TD24th in ypcThat's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal. I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.
Much of this is fine historical data, and I always appreciate your posts. However, the first 15 years is useless. Last year is relevant, and the year before a little less so, and my "usefulness" quotient ends at 5 years ago.They have a coach who has a stated purpose of wanting to run the ball. Someday it will happen. It could be this year. I would bet they definitely run the ball more than last year.Obviously, things change. We could have argued last summer that based on historical data that Arizona has about a 2% chance of going to the Super Bowl in 2008. We would have been wrong.
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
I could be way off here but I find it hard to believe Moreno's situation can be that much worse than Wells' in Arizona. Denver drafted Moreno with the #12 pick over any front 7 player they coveted at that spot including Orakpo and Ayers. That alone tells me they think Moreno is the type of guy who can have an instant impact for the offense. Moreno has also been touted as one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. Having watched Moreno play, I have no doubt that he is the most complete and gifted RB on the Denver roster right now. Look who we are comparing him to: LaMont Jordan who was brought in partly because he knows the complex offensive system and can help teach it to his fellow RBs (a la the Jabar Gaffney signing) and Correll Buckhalter who has shown flashes but lacks the burst and complete game that Moreno has. Darius Walker screams camp fodder and Torain is still healing form a nasty knee injury. I think people are making more out of the Denver RBBC than they should be at this point.
Have you seen him play in the NFL?This "burst" that you've seen from Moreno cannot easily be compared to the same "burst" Buckhalter has exhibited in the NFL. They are two entirely different playing speeds.

Buckhalter and Torain (when healthy) will cut into Moreno's carries early on at least until Moreno shows that he's something special -- which he very well could turn out not to be.

And as for Buckhalter, if he's good enough to take snaps away from Brian Westbrook, he's certainly good enough to take some away from rookie Knowshon Moreno.

 
Much of this is fine historical data, and I always appreciate your posts. However, the first 15 years is useless. Last year is relevant, and the year before a little less so, and my "usefulness" quotient ends at 5 years ago.They have a coach who has a stated purpose of wanting to run the ball. Someday it will happen. It could be this year. I would bet they definitely run the ball more than last year.Obviously, things change. We could have argued last summer that based on historical data that Arizona has about a 2% chance of going to the Super Bowl in 2008. We would have been wrong.
Even if we make it as current and apples to apples as possible and use only the last two years of data (aka as "the Whisenhunt years," ARI was not a good running team.I only brought up the history because I think running in Arizona in the heat may be a factor that plays into it. Who knows, may be it doesn't.Even with Whisenhunt, long thought to be the guru of the ground game, the Cardinals were Bottom 5 in rushing in 2007 and dead last in 2008.I agree that at some point something will have to change. Adding Wells certainly is a step in the right direction. But IMO more needs to change than just that to go from bottom of the barrell to near the top. I concur that ARI should be BETTER, but that may not translate into VERY GOOD at running the football.The converse to that, of course, is that IF Wells and the Cardinals do FAR BETTER running the ball, that means all the projections for Warner, Fitz, Boldin, Breaston, etc. will be WAY OFF.
 
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So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
Really? How do you know that?
Well to this point in his career he's shown that he can't catch, he can't run routes, and he's shown little willingness to block. So at this point i haven't seen any evidence that would suggest he is capable of being a 3rd down back.
 
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So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
I could be way off here but I find it hard to believe Moreno's situation can be that much worse than Wells' in Arizona. Denver drafted Moreno with the #12 pick over any front 7 player they coveted at that spot including Orakpo and Ayers. That alone tells me they think Moreno is the type of guy who can have an instant impact for the offense. Moreno has also been touted as one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. Having watched Moreno play, I have no doubt that he is the most complete and gifted RB on the Denver roster right now. Look who we are comparing him to: LaMont Jordan who was brought in partly because he knows the complex offensive system and can help teach it to his fellow RBs (a la the Jabar Gaffney signing) and Correll Buckhalter who has shown flashes but lacks the burst and complete game that Moreno has. Darius Walker screams camp fodder and Torain is still healing form a nasty knee injury. I think people are making more out of the Denver RBBC than they should be at this point.
Have you seen him play in the NFL?This "burst" that you've seen from Moreno cannot easily be compared to the same "burst" Buckhalter has exhibited in the NFL. They are two entirely different playing speeds.

Buckhalter and Torain (when healthy) will cut into Moreno's carries early on at least until Moreno shows that he's something special -- which he very well could turn out not to be.

And as for Buckhalter, if he's good enough to take snaps away from Brian Westbrook, he's certainly good enough to take some away from rookie Knowshon Moreno.
The "have you seen him play in the NFL" argument/question is pretty lame. You can watch a player play in a conference such as the SEC, Big XII, etc... at a high level as Moreno has and understand that he is a stud in the making. I'm not arguing that Buckhalter will not take any snaps from Moreno. I am arguing that what he and the rest of the guys do take away will not be enough to downgrade him from the #1 rookie RB this year. Note that I did say I might be way off but I think the evidence is there that Moreno has a large role in the offense assuming full health. I am not going to buy into the Torain hype until he gets back on the field and proves the knee is not an issue. He's also a hold over from the old regime and I think it's obvious McDaniels has shown little loyalty to the old regimes favorites. So assuming Torain even has a roster spot is a little premature at this point.
 
While we can bash on the Cards running game look at a few others that might be surprising:

Cards - Avg: 3.5 - 14 TD's

Steelers - Avg: 3.7 - 16 TD's

Colts - Avg: 3.4 - 13 TD's

I would think Well's has a pretty good chance to get at least 8-9 of these TD's

 
Good read but Brown at #7 is just silly. :whistle:
Maybe so, but I still think a lot of people are underestimating and forgetting what Addai can do when he's running on all cylinders.But I can definitely see where people would think Brown was too low. I like him a lot as both a player and a person and actually hope he does well, but don't think the Colts are going to utilize him as much as some of the other RB's on the list -- potentially.Then again, you never know. We'll see!
In looking at this year only I can see where you might rank Brown that low.Bernard Scott looks too high IMO and since in most re-draft leagues he will probably be waiver wire fodder, worth keeping an eye on though, or snaggin him with round17 pick
To me Berard Scott is another shiny dazzling object; kinda like Cecil Collins and Mo Clarrett of yesteryear. Huge longshot because maturity is half the game int the NFL when all athletes are superior. He really hasnt shown any.
 
While we can bash on the Cards running game look at a few others that might be surprising:

Cards - Avg: 3.5 - 14 TD's

Steelers - Avg: 3.7 - 16 TD's

Colts - Avg: 3.4 - 13 TD's

I would think Well's has a pretty good chance to get at least 8-9 of these TD's
What's interesting is that based on average FBG staff rankings, Wells is the highest rank back from any of those teams . . .Wells 27, Addai 28, and Parker 32

 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
I could be way off here but I find it hard to believe Moreno's situation can be that much worse than Wells' in Arizona. Denver drafted Moreno with the #12 pick over any front 7 player they coveted at that spot including Orakpo and Ayers. That alone tells me they think Moreno is the type of guy who can have an instant impact for the offense. Moreno has also been touted as one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. Having watched Moreno play, I have no doubt that he is the most complete and gifted RB on the Denver roster right now. Look who we are comparing him to: LaMont Jordan who was brought in partly because he knows the complex offensive system and can help teach it to his fellow RBs (a la the Jabar Gaffney signing) and Correll Buckhalter who has shown flashes but lacks the burst and complete game that Moreno has. Darius Walker screams camp fodder and Torain is still healing form a nasty knee injury. I think people are making more out of the Denver RBBC than they should be at this point.
Have you seen him play in the NFL?This "burst" that you've seen from Moreno cannot easily be compared to the same "burst" Buckhalter has exhibited in the NFL. They are two entirely different playing speeds.

Buckhalter and Torain (when healthy) will cut into Moreno's carries early on at least until Moreno shows that he's something special -- which he very well could turn out not to be.

And as for Buckhalter, if he's good enough to take snaps away from Brian Westbrook, he's certainly good enough to take some away from rookie Knowshon Moreno.
The "have you seen him play in the NFL" argument/question is pretty lame. You can watch a player play in a conference such as the SEC, Big XII, etc... at a high level as Moreno has and understand that he is a stud in the making. I'm not arguing that Buckhalter will not take any snaps from Moreno. I am arguing that what he and the rest of the guys do take away will not be enough to downgrade him from the #1 rookie RB this year. Note that I did say I might be way off but I think the evidence is there that Moreno has a large role in the offense assuming full health. I am not going to buy into the Torain hype until he gets back on the field and proves the knee is not an issue. He's also a hold over from the old regime and I think it's obvious McDaniels has shown little loyalty to the old regimes favorites. So assuming Torain even has a roster spot is a little premature at this point.
It's lame? How in the world is it lame?Are you trying to say that college football plays at the same speed as the NFL? If so, you'd be calling several former professional players liars because they talk about rookie transition to the "NFL's speed of play" all the time.

In college, you have some good players that are very athletic on all sorts of teams where in the NFL you have pretty much everyone being an athletic freak. Huge defensive lineman that are faster than some safeties in college? I'd definitely call that a transition and not lame in the slightest.

I have nothing wrong with you thinking Moreno will prove to be the superior back and get the majority of the carries. That may very well happen. However, with all of the RB's on the roster, the risk IS there. And it's not like I ranked him less than the top two spots -- the #2 ranking is still very promising!

 
Good read but Brown at #7 is just silly. :bag:
Maybe so, but I still think a lot of people are underestimating and forgetting what Addai can do when he's running on all cylinders.But I can definitely see where people would think Brown was too low. I like him a lot as both a player and a person and actually hope he does well, but don't think the Colts are going to utilize him as much as some of the other RB's on the list -- potentially.Then again, you never know. We'll see!
Does he even have 4 cylinders these days?
 
It's lame? How in the world is it lame?Are you trying to say that college football plays at the same speed as the NFL? If so, you'd be calling several former professional players liars because they talk about rookie transition to the "NFL's speed of play" all the time.In college, you have some good players that are very athletic on all sorts of teams where in the NFL you have pretty much everyone being an athletic freak. Huge defensive lineman that are faster than some safeties in college? I'd definitely call that a transition and not lame in the slightest.I have nothing wrong with you thinking Moreno will prove to be the superior back and get the majority of the carries. That may very well happen. However, with all of the RB's on the roster, the risk IS there. And it's not like I ranked him less than the top two spots -- the #2 ranking is still very promising!
Maybe lame was the wrong word but my point is I think with some players, RB in particular, you can get a good idea of how he is going to transition to the NFL. Adrian Peterson is an example (No, I'm not saying Moreno will have the impact as a rookie that Peterson had). RB is, traditionally, one of the easier positions to acclimate to when entering the NFL with the biggest issue usually being pass protection. There is definitely a transition to speed of the game from NCAA to NFL but I think that becomes somewhat a moot point when we are comparing rookies such as Wells and Moreno against each other as each will have to make the adjustment. I'm not trying to trash your list, I actually agree with some of the rankings. I'm just giving an alternate viewpoint.
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
I could be way off here but I find it hard to believe Moreno's situation can be that much worse than Wells' in Arizona. Denver drafted Moreno with the #12 pick over any front 7 player they coveted at that spot including Orakpo and Ayers. That alone tells me they think Moreno is the type of guy who can have an instant impact for the offense. Moreno has also been touted as one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. Having watched Moreno play, I have no doubt that he is the most complete and gifted RB on the Denver roster right now. Look who we are comparing him to: LaMont Jordan who was brought in partly because he knows the complex offensive system and can help teach it to his fellow RBs (a la the Jabar Gaffney signing) and Correll Buckhalter who has shown flashes but lacks the burst and complete game that Moreno has. Darius Walker screams camp fodder and Torain is still healing form a nasty knee injury. I think people are making more out of the Denver RBBC than they should be at this point.
Have you seen him play in the NFL?This "burst" that you've seen from Moreno cannot easily be compared to the same "burst" Buckhalter has exhibited in the NFL. They are two entirely different playing speeds.

Buckhalter and Torain (when healthy) will cut into Moreno's carries early on at least until Moreno shows that he's something special -- which he very well could turn out not to be.

And as for Buckhalter, if he's good enough to take snaps away from Brian Westbrook, he's certainly good enough to take some away from rookie Knowshon Moreno.
Nobody has even mentioned Peyton "I do a LOT of things well" Hillis in these discussions. The man might not have a 2nd gear, but he tore up some good yardage last season so I wouldn't be too quick to forget about him. McDaniels is already on record saying he's going to be involved in many different aspects of the offense.
 
It's lame? How in the world is it lame?Are you trying to say that college football plays at the same speed as the NFL? If so, you'd be calling several former professional players liars because they talk about rookie transition to the "NFL's speed of play" all the time.In college, you have some good players that are very athletic on all sorts of teams where in the NFL you have pretty much everyone being an athletic freak. Huge defensive lineman that are faster than some safeties in college? I'd definitely call that a transition and not lame in the slightest.I have nothing wrong with you thinking Moreno will prove to be the superior back and get the majority of the carries. That may very well happen. However, with all of the RB's on the roster, the risk IS there. And it's not like I ranked him less than the top two spots -- the #2 ranking is still very promising!
Maybe lame was the wrong word but my point is I think with some players, RB in particular, you can get a good idea of how he is going to transition to the NFL. Adrian Peterson is an example (No, I'm not saying Moreno will have the impact as a rookie that Peterson had). RB is, traditionally, one of the easier positions to acclimate to when entering the NFL with the biggest issue usually being pass protection. There is definitely a transition to speed of the game from NCAA to NFL but I think that becomes somewhat a moot point when we are comparing rookies such as Wells and Moreno against each other as each will have to make the adjustment. I'm not trying to trash your list, I actually agree with some of the rankings. I'm just giving an alternate viewpoint.
Okay, I see what you're saying now. I can't argue with the fact that Moreno showed he could be great while running in college -- he even had some people claiming he was the closest thing to Barry Sanders even though there will never, ever, ever, ever be another Barry Sanders (unfortunately). Good points on all fronts though. :lmao: Guess we'll have to wait the long, long wait until we see what happens... :bag:
 
It's lame? How in the world is it lame?

Are you trying to say that college football plays at the same speed as the NFL? If so, you'd be calling several former professional players liars because they talk about rookie transition to the "NFL's speed of play" all the time.

In college, you have some good players that are very athletic on all sorts of teams where in the NFL you have pretty much everyone being an athletic freak. Huge defensive lineman that are faster than some safeties in college? I'd definitely call that a transition and not lame in the slightest.

I have nothing wrong with you thinking Moreno will prove to be the superior back and get the majority of the carries. That may very well happen. However, with all of the RB's on the roster, the risk IS there. And it's not like I ranked him less than the top two spots -- the #2 ranking is still very promising!
Maybe lame was the wrong word but my point is I think with some players, RB in particular, you can get a good idea of how he is going to transition to the NFL. Adrian Peterson is an example (No, I'm not saying Moreno will have the impact as a rookie that Peterson had). RB is, traditionally, one of the easier positions to acclimate to when entering the NFL with the biggest issue usually being pass protection. There is definitely a transition to speed of the game from NCAA to NFL but I think that becomes somewhat a moot point when we are comparing rookies such as Wells and Moreno against each other as each will have to make the adjustment. I'm not trying to trash your list, I actually agree with some of the rankings. I'm just giving an alternate viewpoint.
Okay, I see what you're saying now. I can't argue with the fact that Moreno showed he could be great while running in college -- he even had some people claiming he was the closest thing to Barry Sanders even though there will never, ever, ever, ever be another Barry Sanders (unfortunately). Good points on all fronts though. :lmao: Guess we'll have to wait the long, long wait until we see what happens... ;)
:bag:
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
The RBBC in Denver and the RBBC in Arizona are two entirely different things. Did you read the Moreno section?
I could be way off here but I find it hard to believe Moreno's situation can be that much worse than Wells' in Arizona. Denver drafted Moreno with the #12 pick over any front 7 player they coveted at that spot including Orakpo and Ayers. That alone tells me they think Moreno is the type of guy who can have an instant impact for the offense. Moreno has also been touted as one of the best receiving backs to come out in some time. Having watched Moreno play, I have no doubt that he is the most complete and gifted RB on the Denver roster right now. Look who we are comparing him to: LaMont Jordan who was brought in partly because he knows the complex offensive system and can help teach it to his fellow RBs (a la the Jabar Gaffney signing) and Correll Buckhalter who has shown flashes but lacks the burst and complete game that Moreno has. Darius Walker screams camp fodder and Torain is still healing form a nasty knee injury. I think people are making more out of the Denver RBBC than they should be at this point.
Have you seen him play in the NFL?This "burst" that you've seen from Moreno cannot easily be compared to the same "burst" Buckhalter has exhibited in the NFL. They are two entirely different playing speeds.

Buckhalter and Torain (when healthy) will cut into Moreno's carries early on at least until Moreno shows that he's something special -- which he very well could turn out not to be.

And as for Buckhalter, if he's good enough to take snaps away from Brian Westbrook, he's certainly good enough to take some away from rookie Knowshon Moreno.
Nobody has even mentioned Peyton "I do a LOT of things well" Hillis in these discussions. The man might not have a 2nd gear, but he tore up some good yardage last season so I wouldn't be too quick to forget about him. McDaniels is already on record saying he's going to be involved in many different aspects of the offense.
Completely forgot about him. Good point!
 
So you don't like Moreno because he might be in a RBBC? If that's the case i don't know why you like Beanie Wells so much since we know he's only going to be a 2 down back.
Really? How do you know that?
Well to this point in his career he's shown that he can't catch, he can't run routes, and he's shown little willingness to block. So at this point i haven't seen any evidence that would suggest he is capable of being a 3rd down back.
I agree his routes need to improve. But he gets his head around quickly, finds the ball and catches it naturally with his hands though and is a strong face up blocker vs both DL and LBs. Underutilzed and unable are 2 completely different things. Not sure what you were watching or what you have been reading but I have to disagree that he cannot be a 3 down back.
 
While we can bash on the Cards running game look at a few others that might be surprising:

Cards - Avg: 3.5 - 14 TD's

Steelers - Avg: 3.7 - 16 TD's

Colts - Avg: 3.4 - 13 TD's

I would think Well's has a pretty good chance to get at least 8-9 of these TD's
What's interesting is that based on average FBG staff rankings, Wells is the highest rank back from any of those teams . . .Wells 27, Addai 28, and Parker 32
:lmao: That probably has more to do with Wells having the least competition of any of those backs than anything else.

 
While we can bash on the Cards running game look at a few others that might be surprising:

Cards - Avg: 3.5 - 14 TD's

Steelers - Avg: 3.7 - 16 TD's

Colts - Avg: 3.4 - 13 TD's

I would think Well's has a pretty good chance to get at least 8-9 of these TD's
What's interesting is that based on average FBG staff rankings, Wells is the highest rank back from any of those teams . . .Wells 27, Addai 28, and Parker 32
:rolleyes: That probably has more to do with Wells having the least competition of any of those backs than anything else.
And the most talent.
 
Wells and Moreno are a pretty clear top 2 because of their situations. I don't think Wells will be a good franchise back in the long haul, but the only thing preventing him from putting up a top 15 season in 2009 is his durability.

I'm also bullish on Greene, but he probably won't help you much this year unless Jones gets injured.

I'm not on board with the Bernard Scott <3. He doesn't look like anything special to me.

I think Gartrell Johnson has Mike Anderson potential. If LT continues to struggle with durability, Johnson could surprise some people.

 
As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:23rd in rushing attempts24th in rushing yards19th in rushing TD24th in ypcThat's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal. I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.
Edge ranked #10 and #20 in 2006 and 2007 and he was way past his prime too. Wells has the ideal size to be a very productive RB in this league and doesn't have much competition for carries. I expect the Cardinals to run more this year (about 60-40 pass-run ratio) after selecting Wells in the 1st round of the draft.
 
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Donald Brown, Moreno, and the Eagles RB are 3 situations to watch very closely in camp and preseason. Don't necessarily focus on the preseason YPC, but look for good flashes, camp reports. etc

 
OK . . . so you have a passing team that now plays in Chicago that still doesn't run block well. They'd still have almost twice as many passing attempts as running attempts and would move the ball far more effectively through the air. So to answer what I think you are asking, I still would not see that as a great environment for a RB.BTW, I am not suggesting that the Cardinlas will automatically "fail" in running the football, I am only indicating that IMO there is lesser chance of "success" (and thus being a strong running team). Arizona may go from Bottom 3 to Bottom 10 in running with Wells. I would not call that "successful." I would say that that's an improvement . . . but that to me does not necessarily equate to strong fantasy totals.
Fair enough. What I was trying to get at though is that aside from using data from the last several years the time before that is not very relevant. Edge had a decent year in 2006. In 2007 he got more production on less touches in Whisenhunt's first year. And by that point, he was already showing LOTS of wear. When I watch Hightower I just see a tough, situational runner...nothing more. I think the AZ RBs were pretty average-heck even JJ Arrington started to look like a playmaker compared to those guys. Despite the glaring needs on Defense they still took Wells; that tells me a lot. With those wideouts and a talented RB I would be VERY surprised if they are in the bottom 10 of the league in rushing. And you mentioned the AZ heat possibly being a factor-didn't they move to a dome last year? I know its a new stadium, but maybe its not a dome.
 
footballman_696969 said:
Edge ranked #10 and #20 in 2006 and 2007 and he was way past his prime too. Wells has the ideal size to be a very productive RB in this league and doesn't have much competition for carries. I expect the Cardinals to run more this year (about 60-40 pass-run ratio) after selecting Wells in the 1st round of the draft.
Those rankings are misleading to the extent that they say Arizona's OL or climate or whatever produces good situations for fantasy RBs. Here are Arizona's team fantasy rankings from the RB position (i.e., the rank of each team's RBs combined FPs each season) since moving to the desert:
Code:
2008	272007	272006	262005	322004	172003	322002	212001	272000	251999	261998	 81997	301996	 71995	201994	181993	 91992	151991	271990	241989	271988	16
Yudkin was also correct with his guess that Arizona RBs have been the worst in the league since the move. Here's every team's average FP production from the RB position since '88, with their number of seasons in the league since '88 and total FPs listed as well. Note: 'oti' stands for the Tennessee/Houston franchise.
Code:
team  #sea   totFP   avgFPkan	21	7385	352den	21	7183	342sfo	21	7113	339nyg	21	6987	333sdg	21	6973	332phi	21	6808	324was	21	6742	321pit	21	6698	319ram	21	6687	318sea	21	6650	317dal	21	6630	316buf	21	6613	315jax	14	4405	315mia	21	6492	309nwe	21	6447	307nyj	21	6442	307min	21	6357	303rai	21	6355	303cin	21	6293	300clt	21	6249	298gnb	21	6221	296nor	21	6147	293chi	21	6141	292tam	21	6049	288rav	13	3719	286car	14	3928	281oti	21	5816	277atl	21	5778	275det	21	5725	273cle	18	4857	270htx	 7	1846	264crd	21	5424	258
 
Much of this is fine historical data, and I always appreciate your posts. However, the first 15 years is useless. Last year is relevant, and the year before a little less so, and my "usefulness" quotient ends at 5 years ago.They have a coach who has a stated purpose of wanting to run the ball. Someday it will happen. It could be this year. I would bet they definitely run the ball more than last year.Obviously, things change. We could have argued last summer that based on historical data that Arizona has about a 2% chance of going to the Super Bowl in 2008. We would have been wrong.
I only brought up the history because I think running in Arizona in the heat may be a factor that plays into it. Who knows, may be it doesn't.
Really? Wait, really?
 
footballman_696969 said:
Edge ranked #10 and #20 in 2006 and 2007 and he was way past his prime too. Wells has the ideal size to be a very productive RB in this league and doesn't have much competition for carries. I expect the Cardinals to run more this year (about 60-40 pass-run ratio) after selecting Wells in the 1st round of the draft.
Those rankings are misleading to the extent that they say Arizona's OL or climate or whatever produces good situations for fantasy RBs. Here are Arizona's team fantasy rankings from the RB position (i.e., the rank of each team's RBs combined FPs each season) since moving to the desert:
Code:
2008	272007	272006	262005	322004	172003	322002	212001	272000	251999	261998	 81997	301996	 71995	201994	181993	 91992	151991	271990	241989	271988	16
Yudkin was also correct with his guess that Arizona RBs have been the worst in the league since the move. Here's every team's average FP production from the RB position since '88, with their number of seasons in the league since '88 and total FPs listed as well. Note: 'oti' stands for the Tennessee/Houston franchise.
Code:
team  #sea   totFP   avgFPkan	21	7385	352den	21	7183	342sfo	21	7113	339nyg	21	6987	333sdg	21	6973	332phi	21	6808	324was	21	6742	321pit	21	6698	319ram	21	6687	318sea	21	6650	317dal	21	6630	316buf	21	6613	315jax	14	4405	315mia	21	6492	309nwe	21	6447	307nyj	21	6442	307min	21	6357	303rai	21	6355	303cin	21	6293	300clt	21	6249	298gnb	21	6221	296nor	21	6147	293chi	21	6141	292tam	21	6049	288rav	13	3719	286car	14	3928	281oti	21	5816	277atl	21	5778	275det	21	5725	273cle	18	4857	270htx	 7	1846	264crd	21	5424	258
Interesting stats, but I fail to see what 1989 has to do with 2009.
 
Much of this is fine historical data, and I always appreciate your posts. However, the first 15 years is useless. Last year is relevant, and the year before a little less so, and my "usefulness" quotient ends at 5 years ago.They have a coach who has a stated purpose of wanting to run the ball. Someday it will happen. It could be this year. I would bet they definitely run the ball more than last year.Obviously, things change. We could have argued last summer that based on historical data that Arizona has about a 2% chance of going to the Super Bowl in 2008. We would have been wrong.
I only brought up the history because I think running in Arizona in the heat may be a factor that plays into it. Who knows, may be it doesn't.
Really? Wait, really?
I don't think it's an implausible theory. They also have had, at least historically, a brutal travel schedule, which is probably just as significant a factor.
 
Much of this is fine historical data, and I always appreciate your posts. However, the first 15 years is useless. Last year is relevant, and the year before a little less so, and my "usefulness" quotient ends at 5 years ago.They have a coach who has a stated purpose of wanting to run the ball. Someday it will happen. It could be this year. I would bet they definitely run the ball more than last year.Obviously, things change. We could have argued last summer that based on historical data that Arizona has about a 2% chance of going to the Super Bowl in 2008. We would have been wrong.
I only brought up the history because I think running in Arizona in the heat may be a factor that plays into it. Who knows, may be it doesn't.
Really? Wait, really?
I don't think it's an implausible theory. They also have had, at least historically, a brutal travel schedule, which is probably just as significant a factor.
Well, there is an easy way to test the theory. Look at how productive their opponents have been running the ball against Arizona, when the Cards are at home, and adjust it for the strength of Arizona's defense.The travel theory makes WAY more sense than the "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football" theory. It isn't that hot in Phoenix in November or December. September? Sure. But wouldn't the WRs get warm running long ball routes? Doesn't seem to hurt Fitz or Boldin at all.
 
Well, there is an easy way to test the theory. Look at how productive their opponents have been running the ball against Arizona, when the Cards are at home, and adjust it for the strength of Arizona's defense.

The travel theory makes WAY more sense than the "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football" theory. It isn't that hot in Phoenix in November or December. September? Sure. But wouldn't the WRs get warm running long ball routes? Doesn't seem to hurt Fitz or Boldin at all.
I don't think the theory is "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football." We might want to look at how Arizona and ASU typically fare at running the football, for more data points. But I think it's plausible that sustained heat interaction could have a very minor impact on player fatigue, which would be magnified in a game where everyone is on almost exactly the same level. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=307

I think what we would want to do is check the fantasy points for Cardinals RBs in Sept/Oct vs. in Nov/Dec. That would isolate this question, I think. And that isn't too difficult to do (but it is too difficult to do tonight).

 
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Well, there is an easy way to test the theory. Look at how productive their opponents have been running the ball against Arizona, when the Cards are at home, and adjust it for the strength of Arizona's defense.

The travel theory makes WAY more sense than the "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football" theory. It isn't that hot in Phoenix in November or December. September? Sure. But wouldn't the WRs get warm running long ball routes? Doesn't seem to hurt Fitz or Boldin at all.
I don't think the theory is "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football." We might want to look at how Arizona and ASU typically fare at running the football, for more data points. But I think it's plausible that sustained heat interaction could have a very minor impact on player fatigue, which would be magnified in a game where everyone is on almost exactly the same level. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=307

I think what we would want to do is check the fantasy points for Cardinals RBs in Sept/Oct vs. in Nov/Dec. That would isolate this question, I think. And that isn't too difficult to do (but it is too difficult to do tonight).
So, we're really going with the weather angle on this one? I know I wondered before whether or not they're in a dome now, so I just confirmed they are in a dome now. It has a retractable roof though. Do they leave it open during the hot months or something? Why have a dome if they do?
 
One thing about Arizona and history. I prefer to look at Kenny Whisenhunt and history instead of Arizona itself. It is the head coach who has stated he wants to run more and now has the RB to do it. I expect Arizona to have more carries this year than normal. Whisenhunt made a star out of Parker for a year. He has passed the ball the first 2 years because of what he inherited. And why just looking at the coach. If you look back at the Cards since 1988, you would have said there is no way they go to the playoffs let alone the SB last year. Wont happen because look at the last 20 years of stats. Well the coach had been to the SB before with his old team and knew how to get there. He knows how to run the ball and will get his team there also. He wants to do it and has changed the entire philosophy and thinking in Arizona. They are not the team of the past.

I have Wells #1 also. I am not worried about the pass catching because he does it naturally well. That was his situation in college in the end. Also read he blocked well in his first taste of NFL. The only concern I have is Ohio State late graduation and missing the camps of the last 2 weeks. But he will pick it up when it really matters.

I also think he is more talented overall than Moreno and Denver does scare me because of the coach again. Coming from a true RBBC type of situation and they have brought in so many backs to do it here also like NE. I do think he is #2 by default at getting a starting spot

McCoy/Brown as must haves if you own Westbrook/Addai even if you overpay a little. There is no reason not to have them 3/4. And I like both of them better than Greene in the end. He is a true 2 down back in the end and Ryan coming from Baltimore looks to be a true RBBC type of guy. I have him down further than most and he might even slip out of my top 7 but I got him at 7

Scott or Davis will not come close to your rankings. I think you get caught up a little in situation here. One might succeed in the end. I can see putting one at the 5 or 6 spot and hoping you got the right guy.

Andre Brown is still someone I like for this list. Giants love to run the ball and I really think he is a better Derrick WArd in the end. And Jacobs is constantly to the injury list because of his style. Cedric Peerman is another guy I would put over Davis or Scott. I like what he brings to the table. I got Brown at the other 5/6 spot and like him better than Greene because of the hands. Peerman will slip out

 

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