Shark Pool Strategies (1 Viewer)

[MLBrandow]

Let's talk some shark strats for drafting...

Mine here is for 12-team redraft 3WR/flex no-ppr, but I run all of my drafts on the same point-tier basis. Once you set your personal rankings, bracket off your skill players and compare it to the ADPs.

That's where your targets lie, and let that dictate your draft strategy. Concentrate on TIER-PPG NOT PPG. The name of the game is maximizing value, not loading up on ADP charts but abusing them. For me, here's my strat this year and how I got to it....

Here's a strat for you:

Draft RB WR WR QB RB WR RB WR WR RB TE QB .... DEF K RB WR

There is an insane dropoff from top WRs to mediocrity this year... and a wealth of depth at RB.

A lot of the RB2s drafted I don't even like.

And if you're drafting later in the round, go QB WR WR RB WR RB

grab a Manning/Palmer....

I'm not even kidding....

check out this 12-team 10-round mock employing a few different strategies. I made this the other day for sportsforum.ws ' new '06 collab rankings. It's loaded with my own biases and I played this like a real draft, drafting against myself with each pick.

1.01 - Larry Johnson, RB, KCC

1.02 - LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SDC

1.03 - Shaun Alexander, RB, SEA

1.04 - Clinton Portis, RB, WAS

1.05 - Tiki Barber, RB, NYG

1.06 - Peyton Manning, QB, IND

1.07 - Edgerrin James, RB, ARI

1.08 - Domanick Davis, RB, HOU

1.09 - Cadillac Williams, RB, TBB

1.10 - LaMont Jordan, RB, OAK

1.11 - Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI

1.12 - Steve Smith, WR, CAR

2.01 - Torry Holt, WR, STL

2.02 - Chad Johnson, WR, CIN

2.03 - Marvin Harrison, WR, IND

2.04 - Rudi Johnson, RB, CIN

2.05 - Willis McGahee, RB, BUF

2.06 - Terrell Owens, WR, DAL

2.07 - Antonio Gates, TE, SDC

2.08 - Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG

2.09 - Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI

2.10 - Steven Jackson, RB, STL

2.11 - Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI

2.12 - Reggie Wayne, WR, IND

3.01 - Randy Moss, WR, OAK

3.02 - Corey Dillon, RB, NEP

3.03 - Santana Moss, WR, WAS

3.04 - Carson Palmer, QB, CIN

3.05 - Jamal Lewis, RB, BAL

3.06 - Kevin Jones, RB, DET

3.07 - Tony Gonzalez, TE, KCC

3.08 - Donald Driver, WR, GBP

3.09 - Hines Ward, WR, PIT

3.10 - Warrick Dunn, RB, ATL

3.11 - Reuben Droughns, RB, CLE

3.12 - Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA

4.01 - Deuce McAllister, RB, NOS

4.02 - Javon Walker, WR, DEN

4.03 - Andre Johnson, WR, HOU

4.04 - TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR, CIN

4.05 - Joe Horn, WR, NOS

4.06 - Roy Williams, WR, DET

4.07 - Cedric Benson, RB, CHI

4.08 - Julius Jones, RB, DAL

4.09 - Derrick Mason, WR, BAL

4.10 - Jeremy Shockey, TE, NYG

4.11 - Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA

4.12 - Marc Bulger, QB, STL

5.01 - LenDale White, RB, TEN

5.02 - Chris Chambers, WR, MIA

5.03 - Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI

5.04 - DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR

5.05 - Joey Galloway, WR, TBB

5.06 - Deion Branch, WR, NEP

5.07 - Eli Manninng, QB, NYG

5.08 - Alge Crumpler, TE, ATL

5.09 - Curtis Martin, RB, NYJ

5.10 - Chester Taylor, RB, MIN

5.11 - Tom Brady, QB, NEP

5.12 - Michael Clayton, WR, TB

6.01 - Reggie Bush, RB, NOS

6.02 - Willie Parker, RB, PIT

6.03 - Drew Bennett, WR, TEN

6.04 - Lee Evans, WR, BUF

6.05 - Nate Burleson, WR MIN

6.06 - Joseph Addai, RB, IND

6.07 - Koren Robinson, wR, MIN

6.08 - LJ Smith, TE, PHI

6.09 - DeShaun Foster, RB, CAR

6.10 - Reggie Brown, WR, PHI

6.11 - Laveranues Coles, wR, NYJ

6.12 - Dominic Rhodes, RB, IND

7.01 - Ahman Green, RB, GBP

7.02 - Ron Dayne, RB, DEN

7.03 - Eddie Kennison, WR, KCC

7.04 - Rod Smith, WR, DEN

7.05 - Matt Jones, WR, JAC

7.06 - Kevin Curtis, WR, STL

7.07 - Frank Gore, RB, SFO

7.08 - Tatum Bell, RB, DEN

7.09 - Kellen Winslow, TE, CLE

7.10 - Randy McMichael, TE, MIA

7.11 - Muhsin Muhammad, WR, CHI

7.12 - Jason Witten, TE, DAL

8.01 - Brett Favre, QB, GBP

8.02 - Thomas Jones, RB, CHI

8.03 - Daunte Culpepper, QB, MIA

8.04 - Eric Moulds, WR, HOU

8.05 - Jerry Porter, WR, OAK

8.06 - Chris Brown, RB, TEN

8.07 - Antonio Bryant, WR, SFO

8.08 - David Carr, QB, HOU

8.09 - Ben Watson, TE, NEP

8.10 - Marion Barber, RB, DAL

8.11 - Heath Miller, TE, PIT

8.12 - Keyshawn Johnson, WR, CAR

9.01 - Donte' Stallworth, WR, NOS

9.02 - Laurence Maroney, RB, NEP

9.03 - Fred Taylor, RB, JAC

9.04 - Sam Gado, RB, GBP

9.05 - Jake Delhomme, QB, CAR

9.06 - Chris Perry, RB, CIN

9.07 - Michael Vick, QB, ATL

9.08 - Aaron Brooks, QB, OAK

9.09 - Mark Brunell, QB, WAS

9.10 - Mewelde Moore, RB, MIN

9.11 - Todd Heap, TE, BAL

9.12 - Mike Anderson, RB, BAL

10.01 - Braylon Edwards, wR, CLE

10.02 - Terry Glenn, WR, DAL

10.03 - Mike Williams, WR, DET

10.04 - Kurt Warner, QB, ARI

10.05 - Seattle Seahawks, DT, SEA

10.06 - Keenan McCardell, WR, SD

10.07 - Maurice Drew, RB, JAX

10.08 - Mark Clayton, WR, BAL

10.09 - Najeh Davenport, RB, GBP

10.10 - Chicago Bears, DT, CHI

10.11 - Baltimore Ravens, DT, BAL

10.12 - Vernon Davis, TE, SFO

1

1.01 - Larry Johnson, RB, KCC

2.12 - Reggie Wayne, WR, IND

3.01 - Randy Moss, WR, OAK

4.12 - Marc Bulger, QB, STL

5.01 - LenDale White, RB, TEN

6.12 - Dominic Rhodes, RB, IND

7.01 - Ahman Green, RB, GBP

8.12 - Keyshawn Johnson, WR, CAR

9.01 - Donte' Stallworth, WR, NOS

10.12 - Vernon Davis, TE, SFO

2

1.02 - LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SDC

2.11 - Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI

3.02 - Corey Dillon, RB, NEP

4.11 - Matt Hasselbeck, QB, SEA

5.02 - Chris Chambers, WR, MIA

6.11 - Laveranues Coles, wR, NYJ

7.02 - Ron Dayne, RB, DEN

8.11 - Heath Miller, TE, PIT

9.02 - Laurence Maroney, RB, NEP

10.11 - Baltimore Ravens, DT, BAL

3

1.03 - Shaun Alexander, RB, SEA

2.10 - Steven Jackson, RB, STL

3.03 - Santana Moss, WR, WAS

4.10 - Jeremy Shockey, TE, NYG

5.03 - Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI

6.10 - Reggie Brown, WR, PHI

7.03 - Eddie Kennison, WR, KCC

8.10 - Marion Barber, RB, DAL

9.03 - Fred Taylor, RB, JAC

10.10 - Chicago Bears, DT, CHI

4

1.04 - Clinton Portis, RB, WAS

2.09 - Anquan Boldin, WR, ARI

3.04 - Carson Palmer, QB, CIN

4.09 - Derrick Mason, WR, BAL

5.04 - DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR

6.09 - DeShaun Foster, RB, CAR

7.04 - Rod Smith, WR, DEN

8.09 - Ben Watson, TE, NEP

9.04 - Sam Gado, RB, GBP

10.09 - Najeh Davenport, RB, GBP

5

1.05 - Tiki Barber, RB, NYG

2.08 - Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG

3.05 - Jamal Lewis, RB, BAL

4.08 - Julius Jones, RB, DAL

5.05 - Joey Galloway, WR, TBB

6.08 - LJ Smith, TE, PHI

7.05 - Matt Jones, WR, JAC

8.08 - David Carr, QB, HOU

9.05 - Jake Delhomme, QB, CAR

10.08 - Mark Clayton, WR, BAL

6

1.06 - Peyton Manning, QB, IND

2.07 - Antonio Gates, TE, SDC

3.06 - Kevin Jones, RB, DET

4.07 - Cedric Benson, RB, CHI

5.06 - Deion Branch, WR, NEP

6.07 - Koren Robinson, wR, MIN

7.06 - Kevin Curtis, WR, STL

8.07 - Antonio Bryant, WR, SFO

9.06 - Chris Perry, RB, CIN

10.07 - Maurice Drew, RB, JAX

7

1.07 - Edgerrin James, RB, ARI

2.06 - Terrell Owens, WR, DAL

3.07 - Tony Gonzalez, TE, KCC

4.06 - Roy Williams, WR, DET

5.07 - Eli Manninng, QB, NYG

6.06 - Joseph Addai, RB, IND

7.07 - Frank Gore, RB, SFO

8.06 - Chris Brown, RB, TEN

9.07 - Michael Vick, QB, ATL

10.06 - Keenan McCardell, WR, SD

8

1.08 - Domanick Davis, RB, HOU

2.05 - Willis McGahee, RB, BUF

3.08 - Donald Driver, WR, GBP

4.05 - Joe Horn, WR, NOS

5.08 - Alge Crumpler, TE, ATL

6.05 - Nate Burleson, WR MIN

7.08 - Tatum Bell, RB, DEN

8.05 - Jerry Porter, WR, OAK

9.08 - Aaron Brooks, QB, OAK

10.05 - Seattle Seahawks, DT, SEA

9

1.09 - Cadillac Williams, RB, TBB

2.04 - Rudi Johnson, RB, CIN

3.09 - Hines Ward, WR, PIT

4.04 - TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR, CIN

5.09 - Curtis Martin, RB, NYJ

6.04 - Lee Evans, WR, BUF

7.09 - Kellen Winslow, TE, CLE

8.04 - Eric Moulds, WR, HOU

9.09 - Mark Brunell, QB, WAS

10.04 - Kurt Warner, QB, ARI

10

1.10 - LaMont Jordan, RB, OAK

2.03 - Marvin Harrison, WR, IND

3.10 - Warrick Dunn, RB, ATL

4.03 - Andre Johnson, WR, HOU

5.10 - Chester Taylor, RB, MIN

6.03 - Drew Bennett, WR, TEN

7.10 - Randy McMichael, TE, MIA

8.03 - Daunte Culpepper, QB, MIA

9.10 - Mewelde Moore, RB, MIN

10.03 - Mike Williams, WR, DET

11

1.11 - Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI

2.02 - Chad Johnson, WR, CIN

3.11 - Reuben Droughns, RB, CLE

4.02 - Javon Walker, WR, DEN

5.11 - Tom Brady, QB, NEP

6.02 - Willie Parker, RB, PIT

7.11 - Muhsin Muhammad, WR, CHI

8.02 - Thomas Jones, RB, CHI

9.11 - Todd Heap, TE, BAL

10.02 - Terry Glenn, WR, DAL

12

1.12 - Steve Smith, WR, CAR

2.01 - Torry Holt, WR, STL

3.12 - Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA

4.01 - Deuce McAllister, RB, NOS

5.12 - Michael Clayton, WR,

6.01 - Reggie Bush, RB, NOS

7.12 - Jason Witten, TE, DAL

8.01 - Brett Favre, QB, GBP

9.12 - Mike Anderson, RB, BAL

10.01 - Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE

Still available:

82. Chris Cooley TE WAS 7.10.38 6.01 8.11 08.25 29

83. Drew Bledsoe QB DAL 7.10.45 5.12 10.08 10.78 31

95. Jake Plummer QB DEN 8.10.09 7.08 9.12 09.12 23

97. Trent Green QB KCC 8.12.00 7.04 10.03 09.70 28

102. Kevan Barlow RB SFO 9.11.25 8.05 13.11 14.68 20

105. Vernon Davis TE FA 9.12.17 7.04 12.08 15.32 30

106. Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 9.12.36 7.05 12.09 13.93 22

107. Pittsburgh Steelers DT PIT 9.12.78 8.06 12.02 11.61 23

108. Drew Brees QB NOS 10.01.36 8.04 12.05 11.55 28

116. Carolina Panthers DT CAR 10.05.32 8.11 12.05 11.21 31

117. Ernest Wilford WR JAC 10.07.77 7.07 13.03 16.43 31

118. Greg Jones RB JAC 10.08.11 7.12 14.07 17.70 28

119. T.J. Duckett RB ATL 10.08.47 8.12 12.12 12.76 19

121. Byron Leftwich QB JAC 10.12.32 9.10 12.07 08.21 25

122. Steve McNair QB TEN 10.12.35 8.10 12.11 11.03 26

125. Neil Rackers PK ARI 11.04.07 7.09 13.10 16.35 30

126. Adam Vinatieri PK IND 11.04.12 8.03 14.05 16.51 25

129. Dallas Clark TE IND 11.08.19 8.06 16.12 24.10 27

130. Isaac Bruce WR STL 11.08.90 8.11 13.11 15.63 29

133. David Givens WR NEP 12.02.00 8.09 15.01 16.22 27

135. Priest Holmes RB KCC 12.04.95 9.01 14.05 16.44 20

137. Ryan Moats RB PHI 12.05.08 9.12 16.08 19.93 25

138. Indianapolis Colts DT IND 12.05.70 10.08 14.11 14.14 30

139. Jerramy Stevens TE SEA 12.06.16 9.08 16.07 20.69 31

140. Tampa Bay Buccaneers DT TBB 12.09.68 9.06 15.02 16.75 31

141. Chris Simms QB TBB 12.12.08 11.02 16.09 12.17 26

143. Jon Kitna QB DET 12.12.96 10.07 16.05 18.36 25

144. Duce Staley RB PIT 13.02.07 6.12 16.01 23.50 29

145. Mike Vanderjagt PK DAL 13.02.26 11.02 14.10 12.99 31

146. Billy Volek QB TEN 13.02.86 10.11 15.11 15.76 28

147. Joe Jurevicius WR SEA 13.02.96 10.03 15.10 15.55 27

148. Philip Rivers QB SDC 13.04.10 10.11 16.09 20.75 20

150. Travis Henry RB TEN 13.05.76 11.08 15.09 14.11 17

152. Dallas Cowboys DT DAL 13.08.00 10.03 15.09 16.24 21

153. Ben Troupe TE TEN 13.08.14 10.11 16.12 20.54 29

154. Brandon Lloyd WR SFO 13.10.12 11.07 16.01 12.72 25

155. Jerious Norwood RB FA 13.10.93 11.09 16.04 17.92 14

156. Washington Redskins DT WAS 13.10.96 11.01 16.08 15.83 28

157. Vince Young QB FA 13.11.71 11.12 15.07 15.26 7

158. Jacksonville Jaguars DT JAC 13.12.35 11.08 16.07 16.62 23

159. Chad Jackson WR FA 13.12.50 11.07 16.11 18.02 24

160. Shayne Graham PK CIN 13.12.67 11.12 15.09 12.68 30

161. Brandon Stokley WR IND 13.12.70 11.03 16.09 17.74 20

162. Rex Grossman QB CHI 14.01.13 11.06 16.09 23.93 8

163. Charles Rogers WR DET 14.01.33 12.08 16.07 17.05 6

164. Jermaine Wiggins TE MIN 14.01.37 11.04 16.06 19.84 19

165. Reggie Williams WR JAC 14.01.38 10.03 16.08 21.06 13

166. Atlanta Falcons DT ATL 14.01.74 11.11 15.11 12.02 31

167. Jason Elam PK DEN 14.01.75 12.04 16.01 10.12 24

168. Roddy White WR ATL 14.01.79 12.03 16.03 14.84 24

169. Amani Toomer WR NYG 14.04.11 12.10 16.04 11.70 19

Team 1 and 4 here look like the best two here IMO, and both went RB, WRx2/QB, RB

That's the money strat this year if you ask me...

Draft for your tiers, don't worry about "well this RB is more FP than this WR...."

Look at your drop-offs and maximize your higher-tier picks.

 

[EBF]

Dynasty:

- Once the veteran talent dries up, use your late picks on young players with potential. High-profile first round picks tend to be overvalued and overrated, but you can always grab guys like Roddy White, Mark Bradley, Derek Hagan and Willie Reid well below their actual value. Second and third round NFL picks have a pretty decent success rate and are usually much cheaper than first round picks.

In the past few years, I've been able to land guys like Michael Turner, Kevin Curtis, Anquan Boldin, and Santana Moss in rounds 10-30.

- Have patience. Every league has several owners who lose patience with their rookies if those players don't immediately produce. Use this against them by offering trades when good rookies stumble out of the gate.

 

[VTjkru]

I dont want to poo poo your strategy but that only looks nice if everyone drafts that way. They obviously dont and you have to adjust for that. If everyone decides to make a run on RBs in that second round after grabbing a RB in the first round youre pretty much screwed.

 

[einstein2u]

it also helps when you have the #1 pick

no way ronnie last until 3.12

 

[bigfeet_88]

2.08 - Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG

 

[Ozymandias]

Thank you for sharing.

 

[Duke1948]

it also helps when you have the #1 pick

no way ronnie last until 3.12

that's what i thought as well.i have gone rb,wr,wr,rb in several drafts at experts and the team "looks" pretty good. time will tell.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

If your starting requirements are 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1K/1D....

If you've got the cajones and you're high on a few of the injury-prone RB's this season, get a late draft pick and employ the stud WR theory. For example, here is a team that you may end up with:

1.12 - Steve Smith

2.1 - Chad Johnson

3.12 - Reggie Wayne

4.1 - Deshaun Foster

5.12 - Chris Brown

6.1 - Todd Heap

7.12 - DeAngelo Williams

8.1 - Lendale White

9.12 - Kurt Warner

10.1 - Aaron Brooks

11.12 - Chicago D

I think this team is a real possibility. Most, if not all of those players should be available at those picks. The question is, would you be happy with this team?

 

[radballs]

I really like the idea of taking a WR in rounds 2 and 3 but it really depends on who's available and I'm usually doing this in ppr leagues. With no ppr, RBs have a lot more weight.

As a side note, it always seems like every year there are people claiming that there is exceptional RB depth. Well, there is in June. But once training camp and preseason games get under way, the RB picture gets much clearer and all of a sudden the number of viable RBs decreases tremendously. When this happens, the laws of supply and demand generally force you to move back to a stud RB strategy assuming your draft is close to the beginning of the season.

 

[MLBrandow]

They say that, but this year is even more so.

The rookie RB crop adds 3 RBs off the bat.

IMO a real shark strat is drafting Foster/DWill, even reaching a small bit if you have to to land both.

I guarantee you they won't split carries, and also that Williams will overtake Foster by midseason if Foster's not injured by then. Both are stud-capable RBs.

For a couple mid-rounds pick, you get a stud back.. I think that's more than a fair trade-off.

I dont want to poo poo your strategy but that only looks nice if everyone drafts that way.  They obviously dont and you have to adjust for that.  If everyone decides to make a run on RBs in that second round after grabbing a RB in the first round youre pretty much screwed.

As you will see if you mock and try this yourself (against real players), you'll see the same run on RBs, just flip-flop the rounds with WRs/RBs. The RBs you'd be targeting won't be taken earlier, and having a 2nd round run on RBs actually helps you, because you get better an even better WR1/2.The most important principle that guides my drafting is tiering. You can't go "well I should take 3 RBs in a row and not worry about a TE until round 10 because RBs outproduce WRs by a lot usually, and TEs are all the same.

Well, yes that's true, but looking at relative drop-offs and drafting to land as many guys in the higher groups as possible is what's going to make your team better.

But the only way that can happen is ranking your own WR/RB/QB/TEs and then tiering them off. then you just compare ADPs and you're set.

Few people draft like me because I do a lot of goofy things. I watch games and then try to validate and invalidate my assumptions from the stats I can find. Certainly to get a 12-team league of guys like me would be rare indeed....

You really should let the first round selections dictate your entire draft strategy, and don't go in with anything but routes you can take if each happens.

People get scared when 18 RBs go in the first couple rounds, but after those RBs, people load up on WRs. Grabbing the best two plus the best QB first is comparable to drafting 1, 2, 3 in your league....

Grabbing like a Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Carson Palmer is a vicious combo, especially when you've got a guy like LenDale White and your Foster/DWill combo available in those early-mid-rounds. If you can't grab foster, getting a Rhodes/DWill would be just as solid. Addai won't get any playing time beyond a few set packages until he can absorb more of Peyton's uber-complex offense, which won't happen for well-into the season.

Also, think of GB RB corps. Green will be out until what, october? What's Gado's/Davenport's ADPs? Very, very low.

Grab them both and you have a guaranteed RB2 for half a season.

 

[LHUCKS]

I really like the idea of taking a WR in rounds 2 and 3 but it really depends on who's available and I'm usually doing this in ppr leagues. With no ppr, RBs have a lot more weight.

As a side note, it always seems like every year there are people claiming that there is exceptional RB depth. Well, there is in June. But once training camp and preseason games get under way, the RB picture gets much clearer and all of a sudden the number of viable RBs decreases tremendously. When this happens, the laws of supply and demand generally force you to move back to a stud RB strategy assuming your draft is close to the beginning of the season.

I pretty much agree with all of this.

 

[LHUCKS]

Here's a strat for you:

Draft RB WR WR QB RB WR RB WR WR RB TE QB .... DEF K RB WR

I would go RB/TE in round 5/6 instead of QB/RB, mostly because I really like my QB sleepers this year. TE really drops off after my second tier.

 

[John Mamula]

strat?

 

[Chiefs Transplant]

strat?

 

[MLBrandow]

strat?

Thanks both for your fantastic contributions to this thread.

 

[Duke1948]

IMO a real shark strat is drafting Foster/DWill, even reaching a small bit if you have to to land both.

ive done the same with rudi/perry and westbrook/moats. guess you could throw benson/jones in as well. the benson/jones is a little harder to swallow as they are off week 7 and you are going to have other options later with that week.

 

[Wingnut]

last year at pick 3 I went RB/WR/WR/RB/RB/QB/TE/WR in the 1st eight rounds in a 12 team league serpentine redraft (start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE)

Ended with starting lineup that looked like this

Palmer

Alexander and Dunn (or F Taylor)

C Johnson, J Walker, Stallworth

Witten

Ill probably try to see if that same stragety would work as well again this year (of course Walkers injury put a monkey wrench into my game so I traded Dunn for Branch). I still won my league though. This year I have #1 and think its the way to go again...outstanding value presenting itself notwithstanding.

 

[Shark Attack]

3.10 Ronnie Brown... strat over.

 

[gocats]

strat?

Thanks both for your fantastic contributions to this thread.

 

[MLBrandow]

3.10 Ronnie Brown... strat over.

don't get me started. You clearly didn't read or absorb any of the key points myself or anyone else in this thread have made, and apparently anything divergent from your tunnel vision alarms you enough to completely disregard it. If you're not going to contribute anything, don't post.Trolling a thread doesn't help, and going back to a point from the thread which this one spawned from, the reason we don't get many of these is because they are drowned out by boneheads like you who memorize espn cheat sheets and laugh at everyone who disagrees.

Don't be a tool.

 

[nittanylion]

Trading down is a very underrated strategy that can be effectively employed by the savvy drafter...

...when I'm fortunate enough to hold one of the top spots in any of my redraft Leagues, I try to employ a strategy where I trade down twice in the first round...

Not sure how effective this would be in smaller or larger Leagues, as I pretty much favor 12 teamers, but this is what I try to do:

First trade: Into the middle of the first round, for additional picks in the first 12 Rounds. Obviously, it depends on who you're dealing with how much you stand to gain by this, but I like collecting additional picks in the first half of the draft. If you have a Top-3 pick, you should be able to ransom it for a pretty hefty sum...

Second trade: Down to the bottom of the first round, or even out of it, with the Owners drafting at 10, 11, and 12, once again for additional picks, but just as, if not more importantly, swapping picks to improve in-round position as much as possible throughout the first half of the draft. While it's nice having a slew of picks, it can be very effective bunching them up as close to the top as possible, especially when moving down. The Owners with 12/13, 11/14, 10/15 might jump at the chance and overpay for a shot at a guy in the 6-9 range, and if they don't, you're still sitting pretty with that pick, plus the real estate you've gained from the first trade down...

This year, in particular, looks pretty deep early on. There are opportunities to stockpile some real solid depth by shuffling picks around to your advantage...

...just something else to consider, if you have a high first round pick. Of course you have to convince yourself to go without the Uber-Stud staring you in the face if you have a top 3, or even top 5 pick. That can be daunting, for sure, and I woudn't blame anyone for standing pat...

 

[Chiefs Transplant]

strat?

Thanks both for your fantastic contributions to this thread.

Your welcome. Anytime i can help just let me know.

 

[~OMM~]

strat?

Thanks both for your fantastic contributions to this thread.

Your welcome. Anytime i can help just let me know.

According to this statement... Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools talk because they have to say something. -- Plato

I guess Plato and the rest of us think you are a complete fool and hypocrite. Good luck in life, you seem to need all you can acquire ~2 cents-OMM~

Interesting thread and thanks for most of the thoughtful replies, even though I did not create.

 

[Tiger Fan]

They say that, but this year is even more so.

The rookie RB crop adds 3 RBs off the bat

Only if all 3 RBs start. Right now, it looks like Addai has the best chance of starting, but can't say the same about Maroney or Williams.

IMO a real shark strat is drafting Foster/DWill, even reaching a small bit if you have to to land both. I guarantee you they won't split carries, and also that Williams will overtake Foster by midseason if Foster's not injured by then. Both are stud-capable RBs. For a couple mid-rounds pick, you get a stud back.. I think that's more than a fair trade-off.

How will you guarante that they won't split carries? I don't know if Foster is a stud capable RB when he has never even been able to stay healthy for a year. By grabbing these guys in the 5th and 8th rounds, you are really hurting yourself at WR depth.

I dont want to poo poo your strategy but that only looks nice if everyone drafts that way. They obviously dont and you have to adjust for that. If everyone decides to make a run on RBs in that second round after grabbing a RB in the first round youre pretty much screwed.

As you will see if you mock and try this yourself (against real players), you'll see the same run on RBs, just flip-flop the rounds with WRs/RBs. The RBs you'd be targeting won't be taken earlier, and having a 2nd round run on RBs actually helps you, because you get better an even better WR1/2.

Are you mocking according to ADP? Does the ADP mirror your league requirements?

The most important principle that guides my drafting is tiering. You can't go "well I should take 3 RBs in a row and not worry about a TE until round 10 because RBs outproduce WRs by a lot usually, and TEs are all the same.

Well, yes that's true, but looking at relative drop-offs and drafting to land as many guys in the higher groups as possible is what's going to make your team better.

But the only way that can happen is ranking your own WR/RB/QB/TEs and then tiering them off. then you just compare ADPs and you're set

Are you projecting points scored also, or just ranking players?

You really should let the first round selections dictate your entire draft strategy, and don't go in with anything but routes you can take if each happens.

People get scared when 18 RBs go in the first couple rounds, but after those RBs, people load up on WRs. Grabbing the best two plus the best QB first is comparable to drafting 1, 2, 3 in your league

I would never let a certain round selections dictate an entire draft. You need to be ready to identify where the value falls to you

Grabbing like a Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Carson Palmer is a vicious combo, especially when you've got a guy like LenDale White and your Foster/DWill combo available in those early-mid-rounds. If you can't grab foster, getting a Rhodes/DWill would be just as solid. Addai won't get any playing time beyond a few set packages until he can absorb more of Peyton's uber-complex offense, which won't happen for well-into the season.

First off, are you talking about drafting right now? If so, than I think you have your rookie RB blinders on. If you are depending on White/Foster/DWill for 2 of your RBs than you taking a HUGE risk that White will be starting from week 1. If you are talking about drafting in August, than I would assume that some of those RB issues would settle out and the ADPs for the rookie RBs would tend to go up big time.

Also, think of GB RB corps. Green will be out until what, october? What's Gado's/Davenport's ADPs? Very, very low.

Grab them both and you have a guaranteed RB2 for half a season

Not sure about that Green out til October thing....

All in all, I think you are guaging your entire strategy around some extremely big IF's at the RB position and can really set yourself up for failure. If it were up to me, I would go with the sure thing at RB and then take a risk on one of TEN/GB/CAR RB situation later in the draft if it is available.

 

[Warpig]

I appreciate the thread on strategies. Good work.

However, I am concerned about the D Will and Foster talk. I have taken part in about 4 mocks (standard scoring) over the last week. Not saying it was with Sharks or anything, but in atleast half or 3 out of 4 D Will has actually gone BEFORE Foster. And Steven Jackson is normally the 6th or 7th RB taken. I've seen players like Dom Davis and Lamont Jordan slip a little in all of the mocks. So therefore, there is SOME value to be had as far as RB's go in the 3rd to mid rounds.

I agree with your strategy of RB/WR/WR/RB. Another thing...I've seen Carson Palmer slip as well. To me, he should be right there after Manning (who has gone in the 1st round in some mocks). Palmer has been available in the 4th and later!

 

[LHUCKS]

The Deangelo/Foster strategy is a horrible one if you have to reach on Williams.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

The Deangelo/Foster strategy is a horrible one if you have to reach on Williams.

agree

 

[Warpig]

The Deangelo/Foster strategy is a horrible one if you have to reach on Williams.

I totally agree. The Deangelo love on these boards is silly. Not saying he won't be a stud, but he's not the starter. And there's not a lot of stud running backs that start off returning punts.

 

[BroadwayG]

Let the draft come to you.

When you're not pleased with what it brings, take the best available high reward player.

 

[MCG321]

Team 1 and 4 here look like the best two here IMO, and both went RB, WRx2/QB, RB

I'd take teams 2, 9, 10, and 11 over either of those, probably. I don't like a question mark at RB2.

 

[MLBrandow]

The Deangelo/Foster strategy is a horrible one if you have to reach on Williams.

I totally agree. The Deangelo love on these boards is silly. Not saying he won't be a stud, but he's not the starter. And there's not a lot of stud running backs that start off returning punts.

That's like saying that drafting Portis was silly because the Broncos had Gary starting over him....

 

[EBF]

The Deangelo/Foster strategy is a horrible one if you have to reach on Williams.

I totally agree. The Deangelo love on these boards is silly. Not saying he won't be a stud, but he's not the starter. And there's not a lot of stud running backs that start off returning punts.

That's like saying that drafting Portis was silly because the Broncos had Gary starting over him....

Not really. Foster was drafted in the same general range as Williams and has proven to be a competent player when healthy. It's Benson/Jones if anything.

 

[MLBrandow]

Hmm... key point here though is Fox doesn't run RBBC. He drafted DWill to play. Foster hasn't been healthy for more than a few games at a time.

If I was to bet, I'd say Fox has plans to work Foster in as a 3DB and dual-backfield in some packages.

 

[EBF]

Hmm... key point here though is Fox doesn't run RBBC. 

Good coaches adjust their system to fit their talent. And even if you're right, that doesn't mean Williams will be the starter.

 

[MLBrandow]

Hmm... key point here though is Fox doesn't run RBBC. 

Good coaches adjust their system to fit their talent. And even if you're right, that doesn't mean Williams will be the starter.

I suppose such is the schism here. The pro-DWillers are in high opinion of him coming in and ripping up something in the neighborhood of 1300/10...I give Foster a game as the starter.

 

[EBF]

I suppose such is the schism here. The pro-DWillers are in high opinion of him coming in and ripping up something in the neighborhood of 1300/10...

That's great, but it won't happen if he's on the bench. Foster played in 15 games last season, including an eight game stretch in which he averaged over 20 carries per game.I understand that he has an extensive injury history, but you can't assume that someone will get hurt (just like you can't assume that someone will stay healthy).Williams is a nice sleeper in the event of an injury, but anything earlier than the 6th-8th round of a 12 team league seems like a stretch.

 

[John Mamula]

They say that, but this year is even more so.

The rookie RB crop adds 3 RBs off the bat

Only if all 3 RBs start. Right now, it looks like Addai has the best chance of starting, but can't say the same about Maroney or Williams.

IMO a real shark strat is drafting Foster/DWill, even reaching a small bit if you have to to land both. I guarantee you they won't split carries, and also that Williams will overtake Foster by midseason if Foster's not injured by then. Both are stud-capable RBs. For a couple mid-rounds pick, you get a stud back.. I think that's more than a fair trade-off.

How will you guarante that they won't split carries? I don't know if Foster is a stud capable RB when he has never even been able to stay healthy for a year. By grabbing these guys in the 5th and 8th rounds, you are really hurting yourself at WR depth.

I dont want to poo poo your strategy but that only looks nice if everyone drafts that way. They obviously dont and you have to adjust for that. If everyone decides to make a run on RBs in that second round after grabbing a RB in the first round youre pretty much screwed.

As you will see if you mock and try this yourself (against real players), you'll see the same run on RBs, just flip-flop the rounds with WRs/RBs. The RBs you'd be targeting won't be taken earlier, and having a 2nd round run on RBs actually helps you, because you get better an even better WR1/2.

Are you mocking according to ADP? Does the ADP mirror your league requirements?

The most important principle that guides my drafting is tiering. You can't go "well I should take 3 RBs in a row and not worry about a TE until round 10 because RBs outproduce WRs by a lot usually, and TEs are all the same.

Well, yes that's true, but looking at relative drop-offs and drafting to land as many guys in the higher groups as possible is what's going to make your team better.

But the only way that can happen is ranking your own WR/RB/QB/TEs and then tiering them off. then you just compare ADPs and you're set

Are you projecting points scored also, or just ranking players?

You really should let the first round selections dictate your entire draft strategy, and don't go in with anything but routes you can take if each happens.

People get scared when 18 RBs go in the first couple rounds, but after those RBs, people load up on WRs. Grabbing the best two plus the best QB first is comparable to drafting 1, 2, 3 in your league

I would never let a certain round selections dictate an entire draft. You need to be ready to identify where the value falls to you

Grabbing like a Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Carson Palmer is a vicious combo, especially when you've got a guy like LenDale White and your Foster/DWill combo available in those early-mid-rounds. If you can't grab foster, getting a Rhodes/DWill would be just as solid. Addai won't get any playing time beyond a few set packages until he can absorb more of Peyton's uber-complex offense, which won't happen for well-into the season.

First off, are you talking about drafting right now? If so, than I think you have your rookie RB blinders on. If you are depending on White/Foster/DWill for 2 of your RBs than you taking a HUGE risk that White will be starting from week 1. If you are talking about drafting in August, than I would assume that some of those RB issues would settle out and the ADPs for the rookie RBs would tend to go up big time.

Also, think of GB RB corps. Green will be out until what, october? What's Gado's/Davenport's ADPs? Very, very low.

Grab them both and you have a guaranteed RB2 for half a season

Not sure about that Green out til October thing....

All in all, I think you are guaging your entire strategy around some extremely big IF's at the RB position and can really set yourself up for failure. If it were up to me, I would go with the sure thing at RB and then take a risk on one of TEN/GB/CAR RB situation later in the draft if it is available.

quiet.there are plenty of RBs this year that will all rush for over 1,000 yards and score 10 TDs.

there won't be any historic dropoff...everyone will live up to potential.

 

[NYG Endzone]

Shark strategy is to go with the flow of the draft and scoop up value. If your going to say i have to "RB WR WR QB RB WR RB WR WR RB TE QB .... DEF K RB WR", your missing the boat.

 

[Tiger Fan]

They say that, but this year is even more so.

The rookie RB crop adds 3 RBs off the bat

Only if all 3 RBs start.  Right now, it looks like Addai has the best chance of starting, but can't say the same about Maroney or Williams.

IMO a real shark strat is drafting Foster/DWill, even reaching a small bit if you have to to land both.  I guarantee you they won't split carries, and also that Williams will overtake Foster by midseason if Foster's not injured by then.  Both are stud-capable RBs.  For a couple mid-rounds pick, you get a stud back.. I think that's more than a fair trade-off.

How will you guarante that they won't split carries?  I don't know if Foster is a stud capable RB when he has never even been able to stay healthy for a year.  By grabbing these guys in the 5th and 8th rounds, you are really hurting yourself at WR depth.

I dont want to poo poo your strategy but that only looks nice if everyone drafts that way.  They obviously dont and you have to adjust for that.  If everyone decides to make a run on RBs in that second round after grabbing a RB in the first round youre pretty much screwed.

As you will see if you mock and try this yourself (against real players), you'll see the same run on  RBs, just flip-flop the rounds with WRs/RBs.  The RBs you'd be targeting won't be taken earlier, and having a 2nd round run on RBs actually helps you, because you get better an even better WR1/2.

Are you mocking according to ADP?  Does the ADP mirror your league requirements?

The most important principle that guides my drafting is tiering.  You can't go "well I should take 3 RBs in a row and not worry about a TE until round 10 because RBs outproduce WRs by a lot usually, and TEs are all the same.

Well, yes that's true, but looking at relative  drop-offs and drafting to land as many guys in the higher groups as possible is what's going to make your team better.

But the only way that can happen is ranking your own WR/RB/QB/TEs and then tiering them off.  then you just compare ADPs and you're set

Are you projecting points scored also, or just ranking players?

You really should let the first round selections dictate your entire draft strategy, and don't go in with anything but routes you can take if each happens.

People get scared when 18 RBs go in the first couple rounds, but after those RBs, people load  up on WRs.  Grabbing the best two plus the best QB first is comparable to drafting 1, 2, 3 in your league

I would never let a certain round selections dictate an entire draft.  You need to be ready to identify where the value falls to you

Grabbing like a Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Carson Palmer is a vicious combo, especially when you've got a guy like LenDale White and your Foster/DWill combo available in those early-mid-rounds.  If you can't grab foster, getting a Rhodes/DWill would be just as solid.  Addai won't get any playing time beyond a few set packages until he can absorb more of Peyton's uber-complex offense, which won't happen for well-into the season.

First off, are you talking about drafting right now?  If so, than I think you have your rookie RB blinders on.  If you are depending on White/Foster/DWill for 2 of your RBs than you taking a HUGE risk that White will be starting from week 1.  If you are talking about drafting in August, than I would assume that some of those RB issues would settle out and the ADPs for the rookie RBs would tend to go up big time.

Also, think of GB RB corps.  Green will be out until what, october?  What's Gado's/Davenport's  ADPs?  Very, very low.

Grab them both and you have a guaranteed RB2 for half a season

Not sure about that Green out til October thing....

All in all, I think you are guaging your entire strategy around some extremely big IF's at the RB position and can really set yourself up for failure.  If it were up to me, I would go with the sure thing at RB and then take a risk on one of TEN/GB/CAR RB situation later in the draft if it is available.

quiet.there are plenty of RBs this year that will all rush for over 1,000 yards and score 10 TDs.

there won't be any historic dropoff...everyone will live up to potential.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

There is an insane dropoff from top WRs to mediocrity this year... and a wealth of depth at RB.

Please provide some rationale/support/evidence to support this claim since it appears to be the crux of your approach. It seems that this supposed "insane dropoff" is what fuels the difference in value tiers that you are saying makes it smart to take early WRs. If I'm not mistaken, the "curve" of WR scoring has been fairly consistent from year-to-year, so I'm wondering why you think this year will be so different.Many of us do some sort of tiering (either formally, or informally during the course of a draft) to spot gaps between players of like value and players of dissimilar value and comparing that to where those players are likely to be available. I agree that this strategy is one espoused by many so-called sharks, and strictly on a strategy standpoint I doubt you'd get much disagreement regarding its effectiveness. I think a lot of the questions come from the fact that not many people are seeing the tiers the same way you do.

Perhaps if you expanded more on the analysis you did to develop your tiers instead of focusing on the conclusions you came to based on that analysis, you could get better discussion and maybe even convert a few more people to your way of thinking.

At least in broad strokes, I think the strategy itself is probably sound. It's the conclusions you draw from your analysis and projections that are being questioned.

EDIT TO ADD: Oh, and calling someone a "tool" for questioning the validity of a mock that has a guy widely projected to be a first round pick available as the last pick of the 3rd round is not likely to win many converts either. Even if you don't think he's worth a 1st or 2nd, or early 3rd round pick, the chances that the other 11 members of any 12 man league all agree with you are virtually nil, so to base a mock on that type of approach is just not realistic. In your own words, "It's loaded with my own biases."