Is Shaun Alexander running out of time?
Eroding skills suggest it may be time to look for replacement
FRANK HUGHES; The News Tribune
Published: November 16th, 2007 04:34 AM
KIRKLAND – As the Seattle Seahawks make the transition to the next phase of their development, they are forced to make difficult personnel decisions, often ones that transcend the normal practice.
Given that, there is a rather large pachyderm resting in the middle of team president Tim Ruskell’s office. Its presence seems to get larger each week:
What do the Seahawks do with Shaun Alexander?
No, not just what do they do with him this week against the Chicago Bears, allow him to play or permit him to get fully healthy? And not just what do they do with him in regard to a rotation with Maurice Morris.
The bigger picture, the larger question: What do the Seahawks do with Shaun Alexander when this season is over?
If this were almost any other player – say a Bryce Fisher or a Russell Davis – the Seahawks could simply part ways with him, the unapologetic engine of the sport burning through its fuel.
But like it or not, Alexander – for whatever reason a lightning rod for combustible conversation – is not just any other player. Even the team reluctantly acknowledges this, giving him his own news conference once a week and making him unavailable to the media the rest of the time. No other player but the quarterback receives that type of deference.
Besides, and perhaps more importantly, he was the 2005 Most Valuable Player, the only one in franchise history, and has multiple distinguished accomplishments that make him a player to be at least considered for the Hall of Fame, though by no means a shoo-in.
The point is, it is always difficult – and sensitive – for an organization to part ways with a legend. But the Seahawks find themselves on the precipice of making a decision: Do they say goodbye to Shaun Alexander after this season?
LIFE AFTER TURNING 30
Why, one might ask, would they want to part ways such a short time after his record-setting season, which helped the team reach the Super Bowl after the 2005 season?
First, he turned 30 on Aug. 30, and there is a long history of that being the threshold for a steep dropoff by NFL running backs. They routinely take a beating like players at no other position, a virtual bull’s-eye for fast-moving, destruction-minded missiles.
Eric Dickerson, one of the all-time best backs, averaged 4.51 yards a carry the first nine years of his career, including 4.1 the year he turned 30. The next season, his average dropped to 3.2. He never got above 4.0 again.
“I think a back can last for seven or eight years, depending on how much you get beat up,” Dickerson said in a telephone interview. “When you are young, you don’t think about being 30 or 35. That is an old man. When it happens, it is a shock to you. You want to be fast again but you cannot do it.”
Tony Dorsett averaged 4.53 yards a carry the first seven years of his career. He dropped to 3.9 when he turned 30, and averaged 3.94 over the last five years of his career.
“The running backs, those are the tough guys,” Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren said. “They get banged around pretty good. And over time, it’s a little like a prizefighter, so many body blows and pretty soon it has to have an effect on you. There are some guys that are genetically amazing guys, they can last a little longer than the normal guy. That idea of a running back past 30, there are numbers to go with that. That’s real. Then you throw an injury in there, depending on where it is, eventually that is probably the reason guys stop playing.”
Alexander has averaged 4.58 yards a carry through the first seven years of his career, topping out at 5.1 yards a carry during his MVP season, which also was his contract year. That average dropped to 3.6 last season, and is currently at 3.3 this season.
Understandably, Holmgren on Wednesday was not willing to say that Alexander has reached the downside of his career, though a wrist injury affects his unique way of running and a knee sprain that has slowed him.
But Dickerson said his observation of Alexander has nothing to do with injuries and everything to do with age.
“To me, Shaun was never a real, real fast guy anyway,” Dickerson said. “He was quick. But when you are not fast to begin with and you lose a step, it is even more noticeable. I have noticed it with him. He goes down a little quicker. He gets caught a little faster. Yeah, it’s very noticeable.”
The other part of the equation is that if the Seahawks stay committed to their pass-first attack, Alexander does not really fit into their scheme. Some would suggest he is a hindrance, given the benefit of the doubt because of his contributions in the past.
Alexander is a poor pass blocker, a liability for the long-term health of quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. He never has been a great receiver, and that is more noticeable this season because of his wrist injury. He has dropped six passes this season.
And so if Alexander can’t do two-thirds of what is required of a versatile back in an offense that is starting to stress the pass, he puts the coaching staff in a bind in terms of either hiding him or calling plays around him.
“It’s hard for a play-caller when you get in those situations,” Holmgren said. “You have tendencies anyway. You try to break tendencies, at least create some indecision on the defensive team. But it’s a problem. And I’m well aware it’s a problem. It’s up to me and the coaches to try and help fix that a little bit.”
FINDING THE RIGHT REPLACEMENT
As is the case in all professional sports, salary, and what effect it has on the future of the team, must be taken into account when making a decision like the one the Seahawks have to make with Alexander.
After his MVP season, though some thought it was foolhardy, Alexander was signed to an eight-year, $61.7 million contract with an $11.5 million signing bonus.
Alexander is scheduled to make $4.475 million in 2008, though he will count $6.775 million against the salary cap because his signing bonus was prorated, $2.3 million of which counts against the cap next year.
If the Seahawks decide to release Alexander, they will not have to pay him his salary, but the remaining prorated portion of his signing bonus – $6.9 million – will count against the cap.
In short, it would cost the Seahawks nothing out of pocket to release Alexander, and would cost them a minimal $125,000 against the cap.
The question then for Ruskell is this: Since it doesn’t have a financial impact either way, are the Seahawks better off keeping Alexander around next season to see if he still can contribute? Or because of team dynamics and Alexander’s ego, are they better off parting ways?
Ruskell declined to comment for this story.
One of the things Ruskell must weigh in his decision is whether or not there is a replacement for Alexander.
Morris, who started last week against San Francisco when Alexander was sidelined, is a capable backup but has not proven to be a viable starter – though he seems suited for the passing game.
In the six games that Morris started last season, when Alexander was out with a foot injury, he rushed for 445 yards on 114 carries (3.9 average). He ran for 87 yards on 28 carries (3.1) Sunday against the 49ers.
Ruskell would have to get a high quality replacement via free agency or the draft if he decides that Alexander should no longer be a part of the team.
The top free agent is San Diego’s backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, who likely will command a large contract this offseason. After Turner, there is Oakland’s Justin Fargas, Detroit’s Tatum Bell and Dallas’ Julius Jones.
A better option may be the draft, though only two running backs – Darren McFadden of Arkansas and Oregon’s Jonathan Stewart – appear to be franchise-type players, and Stewart, a junior, is no sure thing to make himself available in the draft.
Even if they are in the draft pool, they probably would not be available when the Seahawks are likely to pick (somewhere between the 20th and 30th selections). That means Ruskell would have to determine if he wants to use a first-rounder to get a secondary back he likes – West Virginia’s Steve Slaton, perhaps, or Rutgers’ Ray Rice – or wait until the second or third round to get one he thinks could develop.
There are other ancillary factors, as well. Holmgren has traditionally been faithful to his players, sometimes to a fault. But there has been speculation from a national perspective that this may be Holmgren’s final year coaching, particularly if he sees the Seahawks’ window of opportunity for returning to the Super Bowl closing.
For his part, Holmgren says he is taking his future year to year, though his contract runs through the end of next season.
At the same time, Ruskell has no particular allegiance to Alexander because he did not draft him, and it is widely perceived by those close to the organization that the contract he gave Alexander was more of a thank you for his MVP season than for his expected future contributions, given Alexander’s quirky reputation.
There are seven weeks remaining in the regular season. Seven weeks for Alexander to get healthy. Seven weeks for the coaching staff to determine how to use him. Seven weeks for Ruskell to evaluate him.
And that means there are seven weeks, perhaps, left in Alexander’s Seahawks career.