Shipchaser's Initial Tiers for 2024 (PPR and TEP) (1 Viewer)

[barackdhouse]

The order within tiers is not ranked unless otherwise noted

RB:
---
CMC
---
Gibbs/Henry/Barkley/Bijan/Breece/Taylor
---
Achane/Kyren Williams/R White/J Cook/Mixon/Jacobs/Walker
---
Swift/Javonte Williams/Ford/Pacheco/ETN/R Stevenson/Brian Robinson
---
Ekeler/Conner/Zamir/Spears/Kamara/Chuba
---
J Warren/Chase Brown (or Zack Moss)/Montgomery/Chubb/Mostert/Tank/Najee/Herbert/AJones
---
bunch more after that but gonna keep it there and move on...

WR:
---
Tyreek/JJ/Lamb/Chase
---
Amon-Ra/Puka
---
Olave/Diggs/Wilson/AJ Brown
---
Nabers/Adams/Kupp/London/Pittman/Evans/Deebo/Aiyuk/Flowers/DJ Moore/Waddle
---
Brian Thomas JR/Metcalf/Ridley/McLaurin/DSmith/Tee/Jameson Williams/MHJ/Nico/Shaheed/Dell/Keenan/C Samuel/Amari/J Reed/Doubs and probably ten others

TE:
---
LaPorta/McBride/Kelce/Kinkaid/Pitts/Andrews/Engram/Ferguson
---
Njoku/Kittle/Bowers/Goedert
---
Freiermuth/Kmet/Musgrave/Hockenson
---
a pile of garbage but someone will emerge maybe Jelani Woods/Dulcich/Otton/Tremble types

ETA made a couple small edits but also split the RB tiers

 

[Donny Loved Bowling]

I think you are underrating ETN and totally sleeping on Gus Edwards.

I think AJ Brown and Kupp are each a tier too low, while Diggs, London and Jameson Williams are a tier too high.

You have either forgotten or completely disregarded Ferguson - he should be in tier 2.

Otherwise... great list!

 

[TheWinz]

RB:
---
CMC
---
Gibbs/Henry/Barkley/Bijan/Breece/Taylor
---
Achane/Kyren Williams/R White/J Cook/Mixon/Jacobs/Walker
---
Ekeler/Swift/Javonte Williams/Ford/Pacheco/Conner/ETN/Zamir White/Spears/R Stevenson/Kamara/Chuba
---
J Warren/Chase Brown (or Zack Moss)/Montgomery/Brian Robinson/Chubb/Mostert/Tank/Najee/Herbert

I put numbers to your rankings, and thought I would pick one from each tier to talk about

RB1
RB2 thru RB7
RB8 thru RB14
RB15 thru RB26
RB27 thru 35

Christian McCaffrey - how can he not be in a tier by himself? James Cook was a nice surprise last year, finishing RB11, but was more than 10 PPG behind CMC.
Derrick Henry - nice to see him up in the 2-7 tier. Sure, he may lose a few of the short TD's to Lamar, but BAL gets down the field better than TEN did.
Rachaad White - I think he is one of the safest bets to finish RB14 or better. He's an undervalued pass catcher who doesn't need to leave the field.
Alvin Kamara - played only 13 games last year, and still finished RB12. He's basically been a PPG RB1 all 7 years of his career. I think he should be in the 8-14 tier.
Tank Bigsby - Honestly, never really thought about him until I just read his name. ETN did well enough to maintain his workhorse role for 2024.

Thank you for posting your list

 

[barackdhouse]

RB:
---
CMC
---
Gibbs/Henry/Barkley/Bijan/Breece/Taylor
---
Achane/Kyren Williams/R White/J Cook/Mixon/Jacobs/Walker
---
Ekeler/Swift/Javonte Williams/Ford/Pacheco/Conner/ETN/Zamir White/Spears/R Stevenson/Kamara/Chuba
---
J Warren/Chase Brown (or Zack Moss)/Montgomery/Brian Robinson/Chubb/Mostert/Tank/Najee/Herbert

I put numbers to your rankings, and thought I would pick one from each tier to talk about

RB1
RB2 thru RB7
RB8 thru RB14
RB15 thru RB26
RB27 thru 35

Christian McCaffrey - how can he not be in a tier by himself? James Cook was a nice surprise last year, finishing RB11, but was more than 10 PPG behind CMC.
Derrick Henry - nice to see him up in the 2-7 tier. Sure, he may lose a few of the short TD's to Lamar, but BAL gets down the field better than TEN did.
Rachaad White - I think he is one of the safest bets to finish RB14 or better. He's an undervalued pass catcher who doesn't need to leave the field.
Alvin Kamara - played only 13 games last year, and still finished RB12. He's basically been a PPG RB1 all 7 years of his career. I think he should be in the 8-14 tier.
Tank Bigsby - Honestly, never really thought about him until I just read his name. ETN did well enough to maintain his workhorse role for 2024.

Thank you for posting your list

Thanks for the responses. Super preliminary first-offseason stab at it for me. Now I can draft 300 teams before September based on the bias I'm creating in my head right now. See?

Yeah I have a weird thing with Kamara I just can't see it, even though I know better. I feel like the cliff is imminent.

There's just been a little bit of smoke about Tank is all and I liked his profile and thought he flashed (for like 4 seconds) the few times he played. I found it odd he didn't play much though, but Pederson has been pumping him up without being asked, so IDK just something to monitor. And ETN is made of glass but yes will continue to eat until he doesn't. I think they shift quite a few more carries to Tank and any kind of scratch to ETN and Tank has a path to just take over. No not betting on it I just think he is one of the early candidates for league winner sleeper that is pretty cheap. Particularly on zero RB teams etc.

 

[BigAl21]

Marvin has to at least be on Nabers tier. Both looking at tons of targets, Marvin will be getting them in a better offense from a better QB

 

[Ilov80s]

RB:
---
CMC
---
Gibbs/Henry/Barkley/Bijan/Breece/Taylor
---
Achane/Kyren Williams/R White/J Cook/Mixon/Jacobs/Walker
---
Ekeler/Swift/Javonte Williams/Ford/Pacheco/Conner/ETN/Zamir White/Spears/R Stevenson/Kamara/Chuba
---
J Warren/Chase Brown (or Zack Moss)/Montgomery/Brian Robinson/Chubb/Mostert/Tank/Najee/Herbert

I put numbers to your rankings, and thought I would pick one from each tier to talk about

RB1
RB2 thru RB7
RB8 thru RB14
RB15 thru RB26
RB27 thru 35

Christian McCaffrey - how can he not be in a tier by himself? James Cook was a nice surprise last year, finishing RB11, but was more than 10 PPG behind CMC.
Derrick Henry - nice to see him up in the 2-7 tier. Sure, he may lose a few of the short TD's to Lamar, but BAL gets down the field better than TEN did.
Rachaad White - I think he is one of the safest bets to finish RB14 or better. He's an undervalued pass catcher who doesn't need to leave the field.
Alvin Kamara - played only 13 games last year, and still finished RB12. He's basically been a PPG RB1 all 7 years of his career. I think he should be in the 8-14 tier.
Tank Bigsby - Honestly, never really thought about him until I just read his name. ETN did well enough to maintain his workhorse role for 2024.

Thank you for posting your list

Thanks for the responses. Super preliminary first-offseason stab at it for me. Now I can draft 300 teams before September based on the bias I'm creating in my head right now. See?

Yeah I have a weird thing with Kamara I just can't see it, even though I know better. I feel like the cliff is imminent.

There's just been a little bit of smoke about Tank is all and I liked his profile and thought he flashed (for like 4 seconds) the few times he played. I found it odd he didn't play much though, but Pederson has been pumping him up without being asked, so IDK just something to monitor. And ETN is made of glass but yes will continue to eat until he doesn't. I think they shift quite a few more carries to Tank and any kind of scratch to ETN and Tank has a path to just take over. No not betting on it I just think he is one of the early candidates for league winner sleeper that is pretty cheap. Particularly on zero RB teams etc.

Bigsby was god awful last year. He lost more fumbles than he had receptions. He looked lost on the field. How is ETN made of glass? Because he broke his foot 1 time? He didn't miss a single college game despite getting 788 touches. He's had 580 touches the last 2 NFL seasons without missing a game.

 

[Hoh]

Are you that down on Aaron Jones, or was that an omission? I know he was hurt a lot last year but he showed at the end of the season he can still play. Vikings offense scaring you?

 

[Snotbubbles]

I think you are underrating ETN and totally sleeping on Gus Edwards.

I think AJ Brown and Kupp are each a tier too low, while Diggs, London and Jameson Williams are a tier too high.

You have either forgotten or completely disregarded Ferguson - he should be in tier 2.

Otherwise... great list!

Agree on Diggs. He would be on my do not draft list.

He had 160 targets last season, I have serious doubts he's seeing that many in Houston. He's on the wrong side of 30. Plus, he was about as mediocre as you can be for a #1 target from like week 7 on last season. As good as CJ Stroud was last season, he's not Josh Allen.

All the red flags are staring you in the face, DO NOT get into a relationship with this player.

 

[barackdhouse]

I think you are underrating ETN and totally sleeping on Gus Edwards. (I like Gus to score some goal line TDs this year and have him just below all those names)

I think AJ Brown and Kupp are each a tier too low, while Diggs, London and Jameson Williams are a tier too high. Gonna have to agree to disagree on all of these.

You have either forgotten or completely disregarded Ferguson - he should be in tier 2. Yes he was forgotten, and I have him in tier 1.

Otherwise... great list!

 

[barackdhouse]

Marvin has to at least be on Nabers tier. Both looking at tons of targets, Marvin will be getting them in a better offense from a better QB

that is probably fair, I might give Nabers a TD-producing edge (just a gut call) and while I agree about MHJ getting the alpha targets with a better QB, I think there are a lot more mouths to feed there whereas in NY it will be the Nabers show and nobody else.

 

[barackdhouse]

Are you that down on Aaron Jones, or was that an omission? I know he was hurt a lot last year but he showed at the end of the season he can still play. Vikings offense scaring you?

It was an omission, I have him there in my spreadsheet, though he is probably undraftable for me.

 

[barackdhouse]

I think you are underrating ETN and totally sleeping on Gus Edwards.

I think AJ Brown and Kupp are each a tier too low, while Diggs, London and Jameson Williams are a tier too high.

You have either forgotten or completely disregarded Ferguson - he should be in tier 2.

Otherwise... great list!

Agree on Diggs. He would be on my do not draft list.

He had 160 targets last season, I have serious doubts he's seeing that many in Houston. He's on the wrong side of 30. Plus, he was about as mediocre as you can be for a #1 target from like week 7 on last season. As good as CJ Stroud was last season, he's not Josh Allen.

All the red flags are staring you in the face, DO NOT get into a relationship with this player.

I think Diggs get the alpha targets in Houston and is seriously undervalued right now. BUT - you may very well be right. I don't think he was mediocre I think he has a prima donna complex and so does Josh Allen. I think that relationship, along with Gabe Davis, broke apart.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I think you are underrating ETN and totally sleeping on Gus Edwards.

I think AJ Brown and Kupp are each a tier too low, while Diggs, London and Jameson Williams are a tier too high.

You have either forgotten or completely disregarded Ferguson - he should be in tier 2.

Otherwise... great list!

Agree on Diggs. He would be on my do not draft list.

He had 160 targets last season, I have serious doubts he's seeing that many in Houston. He's on the wrong side of 30. Plus, he was about as mediocre as you can be for a #1 target from like week 7 on last season. As good as CJ Stroud was last season, he's not Josh Allen.

All the red flags are staring you in the face, DO NOT get into a relationship with this player.

I think Diggs get the alpha targets in Houston and is seriously undervalued right now. BUT - you may very well be right. I don't think he was mediocre I think he has a prima donna complex and so does Josh Allen. I think that relationship, along with Gabe Davis, broke apart.

What is the "alpha targets" in Houston? Houston finished 12th in pass attempts in 2023 and Buffalo finished 16th in pass attempts. Diggs got 50 more targets (depending on the source anywhere from 160-175 targets) than the top guy in Houston (depending on the source was 110-125). He finished top 10 in the league last year in targets. I don't see any way he comes close to seeing that many targets. Even if he gets the "alpha targets" in Houston, you're talking about 50 less targets. With his catch % around 67% you're looking at around 82 catches next season, and that's if he gets the "alpha targets". He had 107 last season. His YPC is around 12 so you're looking at around 990 yards. Those numbers would put him around WR29. He very well could not get the "alpha targets." To me, he has no upside and a ton of downside.

I think you OVERVALUE the guy. I'd take Aiyuk, who you have a tier lower than Diggs 10 times out of 10.

 

[barackdhouse]

I think you are underrating ETN and totally sleeping on Gus Edwards.

I think AJ Brown and Kupp are each a tier too low, while Diggs, London and Jameson Williams are a tier too high.

You have either forgotten or completely disregarded Ferguson - he should be in tier 2.

Otherwise... great list!

Agree on Diggs. He would be on my do not draft list.

He had 160 targets last season, I have serious doubts he's seeing that many in Houston. He's on the wrong side of 30. Plus, he was about as mediocre as you can be for a #1 target from like week 7 on last season. As good as CJ Stroud was last season, he's not Josh Allen.

All the red flags are staring you in the face, DO NOT get into a relationship with this player.

I think Diggs get the alpha targets in Houston and is seriously undervalued right now. BUT - you may very well be right. I don't think he was mediocre I think he has a prima donna complex and so does Josh Allen. I think that relationship, along with Gabe Davis, broke apart.

What is the "alpha targets" in Houston? Houston finished 12th in pass attempts in 2023 and Buffalo finished 16th in pass attempts. Diggs got 50 more targets (depending on the source anywhere from 160-175 targets) than the top guy in Houston (depending on the source was 110-125). He finished top 10 in the league last year in targets. I don't see any way he comes close to seeing that many targets. Even if he gets the "alpha targets" in Houston, you're talking about 50 less targets. With his catch % around 67% you're looking at around 82 catches next season, and that's if he gets the "alpha targets". He had 107 last season. His YPC is around 12 so you're looking at around 990 yards. Those numbers would put him around WR29.

I think you OVERVALUE the guy. I'd take Aiyuk, who you have a tier lower than Diggs 10 times out of 10.

You know what I'm looking now and for some reason I thought Stroud missed much more time than he did last year, and was predicating at least a little jump in passing targets to go around. And also see that I had it wrong about the new OC in Houston - Bobby Slowik - I could have sworn for some reason it was Daboll that they brought in and who famously made Diggs his target hog.

So yeah this list is pliable lol but I suppose the other point is that I definitely struggled with where to put both Aiyuk and Deebo. And I think that one of them finishes as a WR1 and the other as a WR2 but good luck guessing which. But in such a case and if I adjust Diggs, then yes I'd likely agree with Aiyuk over Diggs or next to at least.

And over the years I've learned that everyone builds tiers slightly different. Mine are built as a composite function of both where I think they will finish and where ADP currently has them (and that is a moving target throughout draft season and where I start now may not be totally accurate but it's a place for me to start - your feedback and others does help). The OP is just a list but the way I build them is left to right and top to bottom in my spreadsheet. My guys on the left, DND on the right and usually a pretty big chunk in the middle that I'm still either on the fence about or maybe just haven't looked deeper yet. Pliable list for sure.

For reference I did a $350 FPC draft last night, my second of the year, and took Diggs at 3.11 as WR18. Aiyuk went 3.01 as WR13. Deebo came off right after me at 3.12. According to my tiers Diggs was the bigger value (as of that moment).

I did the first one about a week ago and Aiyuk again went 3.01 WR13, Deebo went 4.01 WR20 (so basically 3.12 again) and Diggs went 4.02 WR21.

 

[Biabreakable]

RB:
---
CMC
---
Gibbs/Henry/Barkley/Bijan/Breece/Taylor
---
Achane/Kyren Williams/R White/J Cook/Mixon/Jacobs/Walker
---
Ekeler/Swift/Javonte Williams/Ford/Pacheco/Conner/ETN/Zamir White/Spears/R Stevenson/Kamara/Chuba
---
J Warren/Chase Brown (or Zack Moss)/Montgomery/Brian Robinson/Chubb/Mostert/Tank/Najee/Herbert

I put numbers to your rankings, and thought I would pick one from each tier to talk about

RB1
RB2 thru RB7
RB8 thru RB14
RB15 thru RB26
RB27 thru 35

Christian McCaffrey - how can he not be in a tier by himself? James Cook was a nice surprise last year, finishing RB11, but was more than 10 PPG behind CMC.
Derrick Henry - nice to see him up in the 2-7 tier. Sure, he may lose a few of the short TD's to Lamar, but BAL gets down the field better than TEN did.
Rachaad White - I think he is one of the safest bets to finish RB14 or better. He's an undervalued pass catcher who doesn't need to leave the field.
Alvin Kamara - played only 13 games last year, and still finished RB12. He's basically been a PPG RB1 all 7 years of his career. I think he should be in the 8-14 tier.
Tank Bigsby - Honestly, never really thought about him until I just read his name. ETN did well enough to maintain his workhorse role for 2024.

Thank you for posting your list

Thanks for the responses. Super preliminary first-offseason stab at it for me. Now I can draft 300 teams before September based on the bias I'm creating in my head right now. See?

Yeah I have a weird thing with Kamara I just can't see it, even though I know better. I feel like the cliff is imminent.

There's just been a little bit of smoke about Tank is all and I liked his profile and thought he flashed (for like 4 seconds) the few times he played. I found it odd he didn't play much though, but Pederson has been pumping him up without being asked, so IDK just something to monitor. And ETN is made of glass but yes will continue to eat until he doesn't. I think they shift quite a few more carries to Tank and any kind of scratch to ETN and Tank has a path to just take over. No not betting on it I just think he is one of the early candidates for league winner sleeper that is pretty cheap. Particularly on zero RB teams etc.

What makes you think ETN lacks durability?

The blurb I read on this from the Jags GM and coach sounded more like they are trying to save face on a bad pick Tank Bigsby than anything else.

 

[Biabreakable]

Meanwhile lots of talk about how the Jaguars have improved some of their supporting cast such as Center and Left Guard.

Also Gabe Davis being a good blocker but I think that is a wash as Ridley is good at that too.

I read the Jaguars ran outside too much and that became predictable for defenses, but they couldn't block well up the middle and were the worst team at generating yards before contact last season.

 

[barackdhouse]

RB:
---
CMC
---
Gibbs/Henry/Barkley/Bijan/Breece/Taylor
---
Achane/Kyren Williams/R White/J Cook/Mixon/Jacobs/Walker
---
Ekeler/Swift/Javonte Williams/Ford/Pacheco/Conner/ETN/Zamir White/Spears/R Stevenson/Kamara/Chuba
---
J Warren/Chase Brown (or Zack Moss)/Montgomery/Brian Robinson/Chubb/Mostert/Tank/Najee/Herbert

I put numbers to your rankings, and thought I would pick one from each tier to talk about

RB1
RB2 thru RB7
RB8 thru RB14
RB15 thru RB26
RB27 thru 35

Christian McCaffrey - how can he not be in a tier by himself? James Cook was a nice surprise last year, finishing RB11, but was more than 10 PPG behind CMC.
Derrick Henry - nice to see him up in the 2-7 tier. Sure, he may lose a few of the short TD's to Lamar, but BAL gets down the field better than TEN did.
Rachaad White - I think he is one of the safest bets to finish RB14 or better. He's an undervalued pass catcher who doesn't need to leave the field.
Alvin Kamara - played only 13 games last year, and still finished RB12. He's basically been a PPG RB1 all 7 years of his career. I think he should be in the 8-14 tier.
Tank Bigsby - Honestly, never really thought about him until I just read his name. ETN did well enough to maintain his workhorse role for 2024.

Thank you for posting your list

Thanks for the responses. Super preliminary first-offseason stab at it for me. Now I can draft 300 teams before September based on the bias I'm creating in my head right now. See?

Yeah I have a weird thing with Kamara I just can't see it, even though I know better. I feel like the cliff is imminent.

There's just been a little bit of smoke about Tank is all and I liked his profile and thought he flashed (for like 4 seconds) the few times he played. I found it odd he didn't play much though, but Pederson has been pumping him up without being asked, so IDK just something to monitor. And ETN is made of glass but yes will continue to eat until he doesn't. I think they shift quite a few more carries to Tank and any kind of scratch to ETN and Tank has a path to just take over. No not betting on it I just think he is one of the early candidates for league winner sleeper that is pretty cheap. Particularly on zero RB teams etc.

What makes you think ETN lacks durability?

The blurb I read on this from the Jags GM and coach sounded more like they are trying to save face on a bad pick Tank Bigsby than anything else.

Well that could be but my questions on ETN durability and my assessment of Tank are independent of each other and it could be that both promises are wrong.

But I also feel like those pros and cons for both players are baked into where I have them tiered.

 

[barackdhouse]

If ETN finished at the top of the tier I have him in now, that would be RB15.

Is that really so crazy?

 

[BigAl21]

If ETN finished at the top of the tier I have him in now, that would be RB15.

Is that really so crazy?

Yes. That’s crazy. He’s the only guy in town and while Peterson says we need to limit Carrie’s and increase his efficacy they are not gonna let Bisby have too large of a roll. He’s locked and loaded like not too many are.

 

[Ilov80s]

If ETN finished at the top of the tier I have him in now, that would be RB15.

Is that really so crazy?

It’s not crazy for him to finish RB15 but you have him equal to late round draft picks on bad offenses with extremely small sample sizes like Zamir White and Chuba. You have him with guys who have pretty much flamed out like Javonte Williams and guys who seem to be at the end of the road and have young competition like Ekeler and Conner. ETN is much closer to tier 2 than he is tier 4.

ETN and CMC are the only 2 RBs with at least 1400 yards each of the last 2 seasons.

 

[barackdhouse]

If ETN finished at the top of the tier I have him in now, that would be RB15.

Is that really so crazy?

Yes. That’s crazy. He’s the only guy in town and while Peterson says we need to limit Carrie’s and increase his efficacy they are not gonna let Bisby have too large of a roll. He’s locked and loaded like not too many are.

Ok but RB15 isn't incompatible with that narrative.

 

[barackdhouse]

If ETN finished at the top of the tier I have him in now, that would be RB15.

Is that really so crazy?

It’s not crazy for him to finish RB15 but you have him equal to late round draft picks on bad offenses with extremely small sample sizes like Zamir White and Chuba. You have him with guys who have pretty much flamed out like Javonte Williams and guys who seem to be at the end of the road and have young competition like Ekeler and Conner. ETN is much closer to tier 2 than he is tier 4.

ETN and CMC are the only 2 RBs with at least 1400 yards each of the last 2 seasons.

Yeah fair enough. I don't think I can bump him up though. But I can create a new tier because I would agree he is closer to 2 than 4. Maybe I need to split number 3 up a bit.

 

[nittanylion]

I wouldn't necessarily want to roster Etienne as an RB1 Anchor/Hero, but I'd gladly have him as a preferred RB2, if I was comfortable committing to a balanced or RB-heavy build.

That supports a RB15 ranking, for me.

 

[Joe Bryant]

The order within tiers is not ranked unless otherwise noted

RB:
---
CMC
---
Gibbs/Henry/Barkley/Bijan/Breece/Taylor
---
Achane/Kyren Williams/R White/J Cook/Mixon/Jacobs/Walker
---
Ekeler/Swift/Javonte Williams/Ford/Pacheco/Conner/ETN/Zamir White/Spears/R Stevenson/Kamara/Chuba
---
J Warren/Chase Brown (or Zack Moss)/Montgomery/Brian Robinson/Chubb/Mostert/Tank/Najee/Herbert/AJones
---


bunch more after that but gonna keep it there and move on...

WR:
---
Tyreek/JJ/Lamb/Chase
---
Amon-Ra/Puka
---
Olave/Diggs/Wilson/AJ Brown
---
Nabers/Adams/Kupp/London/Pittman/Evans/Deebo/Aiyuk/Flowers/DJ Moore/Waddle
---
Brian Thomas JR/Metcalf/Ridley/McLaurin/DSmith/Tee/Jameson Williams/MHJ/Nico/Shaheed/Dell/Keenan/C Samuel/Amari/J Reed/Doubs and probably ten others

TE:
---
LaPorta/McBride/Kelce/Kinkaid/Pitts/Andrews/Engram/Ferguson
---
Njoku/Kittle/Bowers/Goedert
---
Freiermuth/Kmet/Musgrave/Hockenson
---
a pile of garbage but someone will emerge maybe Jelani Woods/Dulcich/Otton/Tremble types

Hi @barackdhouse. So I'm clear, are these your rankings? Or Shipchasing's (Overzet, Kerrane, Gretch)?

Always good to break them down in tiers like this.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I think you are underrating ETN and totally sleeping on Gus Edwards.

I think AJ Brown and Kupp are each a tier too low, while Diggs, London and Jameson Williams are a tier too high.

You have either forgotten or completely disregarded Ferguson - he should be in tier 2.

Otherwise... great list!

Agree on Diggs. He would be on my do not draft list.

He had 160 targets last season, I have serious doubts he's seeing that many in Houston. He's on the wrong side of 30. Plus, he was about as mediocre as you can be for a #1 target from like week 7 on last season. As good as CJ Stroud was last season, he's not Josh Allen.

All the red flags are staring you in the face, DO NOT get into a relationship with this player.

I think Diggs get the alpha targets in Houston and is seriously undervalued right now. BUT - you may very well be right. I don't think he was mediocre I think he has a prima donna complex and so does Josh Allen. I think that relationship, along with Gabe Davis, broke apart.

What is the "alpha targets" in Houston? Houston finished 12th in pass attempts in 2023 and Buffalo finished 16th in pass attempts. Diggs got 50 more targets (depending on the source anywhere from 160-175 targets) than the top guy in Houston (depending on the source was 110-125). He finished top 10 in the league last year in targets. I don't see any way he comes close to seeing that many targets. Even if he gets the "alpha targets" in Houston, you're talking about 50 less targets. With his catch % around 67% you're looking at around 82 catches next season, and that's if he gets the "alpha targets". He had 107 last season. His YPC is around 12 so you're looking at around 990 yards. Those numbers would put him around WR29.

I think you OVERVALUE the guy. I'd take Aiyuk, who you have a tier lower than Diggs 10 times out of 10.

You know what I'm looking now and for some reason I thought Stroud missed much more time than he did last year, and was predicating at least a little jump in passing targets to go around. And also see that I had it wrong about the new OC in Houston - Bobby Slowik - I could have sworn for some reason it was Daboll that they brought in and who famously made Diggs his target hog.

So yeah this list is pliable lol but I suppose the other point is that I definitely struggled with where to put both Aiyuk and Deebo. And I think that one of them finishes as a WR1 and the other as a WR2 but good luck guessing which. But in such a case and if I adjust Diggs, then yes I'd likely agree with Aiyuk over Diggs or next to at least.

And over the years I've learned that everyone builds tiers slightly different. Mine are built as a composite function of both where I think they will finish and where ADP currently has them (and that is a moving target throughout draft season and where I start now may not be totally accurate but it's a place for me to start - your feedback and others does help). The OP is just a list but the way I build them is left to right and top to bottom in my spreadsheet. My guys on the left, DND on the right and usually a pretty big chunk in the middle that I'm still either on the fence about or maybe just haven't looked deeper yet. Pliable list for sure.

For reference I did a $350 FPC draft last night, my second of the year, and took Diggs at 3.11 as WR18. Aiyuk went 3.01 as WR13. Deebo came off right after me at 3.12. According to my tiers Diggs was the bigger value (as of that moment).

I did the first one about a week ago and Aiyuk again went 3.01 WR13, Deebo went 4.01 WR20 (so basically 3.12 again) and Diggs went 4.02 WR21.

Aiyuk over Deebo. Deebo is an injury risk. Plus, Aiyuk is an ascending player, Deebo is a descending player. I would have Aiyuk in that AJ Brown tier and Deebo and Diggs in that Devonta Smith tier.

 

[barackdhouse]

The order within tiers is not ranked unless otherwise noted

RB:
---
CMC
---
Gibbs/Henry/Barkley/Bijan/Breece/Taylor
---
Achane/Kyren Williams/R White/J Cook/Mixon/Jacobs/Walker
---
Ekeler/Swift/Javonte Williams/Ford/Pacheco/Conner/ETN/Zamir White/Spears/R Stevenson/Kamara/Chuba
---
J Warren/Chase Brown (or Zack Moss)/Montgomery/Brian Robinson/Chubb/Mostert/Tank/Najee/Herbert/AJones
---


bunch more after that but gonna keep it there and move on...

WR:
---
Tyreek/JJ/Lamb/Chase
---
Amon-Ra/Puka
---
Olave/Diggs/Wilson/AJ Brown
---
Nabers/Adams/Kupp/London/Pittman/Evans/Deebo/Aiyuk/Flowers/DJ Moore/Waddle
---
Brian Thomas JR/Metcalf/Ridley/McLaurin/DSmith/Tee/Jameson Williams/MHJ/Nico/Shaheed/Dell/Keenan/C Samuel/Amari/J Reed/Doubs and probably ten others

TE:
---
LaPorta/McBride/Kelce/Kinkaid/Pitts/Andrews/Engram/Ferguson
---
Njoku/Kittle/Bowers/Goedert
---
Freiermuth/Kmet/Musgrave/Hockenson
---
a pile of garbage but someone will emerge maybe Jelani Woods/Dulcich/Otton/Tremble types

Hi @barackdhouse. So I'm clear, are these your rankings? Or Shipchasing's (Overzet, Kerrane, Gretch)?

Always good to break them down in tiers like this.

They aren't rankings, they're tiers, and yes they're mine. @Shipchaser on twitter. I know there is another outfit with a similar name.

 

[barackdhouse]

I think you are underrating ETN and totally sleeping on Gus Edwards.

I think AJ Brown and Kupp are each a tier too low, while Diggs, London and Jameson Williams are a tier too high.

You have either forgotten or completely disregarded Ferguson - he should be in tier 2.

Otherwise... great list!

Agree on Diggs. He would be on my do not draft list.

He had 160 targets last season, I have serious doubts he's seeing that many in Houston. He's on the wrong side of 30. Plus, he was about as mediocre as you can be for a #1 target from like week 7 on last season. As good as CJ Stroud was last season, he's not Josh Allen.

All the red flags are staring you in the face, DO NOT get into a relationship with this player.

I think Diggs get the alpha targets in Houston and is seriously undervalued right now. BUT - you may very well be right. I don't think he was mediocre I think he has a prima donna complex and so does Josh Allen. I think that relationship, along with Gabe Davis, broke apart.

What is the "alpha targets" in Houston? Houston finished 12th in pass attempts in 2023 and Buffalo finished 16th in pass attempts. Diggs got 50 more targets (depending on the source anywhere from 160-175 targets) than the top guy in Houston (depending on the source was 110-125). He finished top 10 in the league last year in targets. I don't see any way he comes close to seeing that many targets. Even if he gets the "alpha targets" in Houston, you're talking about 50 less targets. With his catch % around 67% you're looking at around 82 catches next season, and that's if he gets the "alpha targets". He had 107 last season. His YPC is around 12 so you're looking at around 990 yards. Those numbers would put him around WR29.

I think you OVERVALUE the guy. I'd take Aiyuk, who you have a tier lower than Diggs 10 times out of 10.

You know what I'm looking now and for some reason I thought Stroud missed much more time than he did last year, and was predicating at least a little jump in passing targets to go around. And also see that I had it wrong about the new OC in Houston - Bobby Slowik - I could have sworn for some reason it was Daboll that they brought in and who famously made Diggs his target hog.

So yeah this list is pliable lol but I suppose the other point is that I definitely struggled with where to put both Aiyuk and Deebo. And I think that one of them finishes as a WR1 and the other as a WR2 but good luck guessing which. But in such a case and if I adjust Diggs, then yes I'd likely agree with Aiyuk over Diggs or next to at least.

And over the years I've learned that everyone builds tiers slightly different. Mine are built as a composite function of both where I think they will finish and where ADP currently has them (and that is a moving target throughout draft season and where I start now may not be totally accurate but it's a place for me to start - your feedback and others does help). The OP is just a list but the way I build them is left to right and top to bottom in my spreadsheet. My guys on the left, DND on the right and usually a pretty big chunk in the middle that I'm still either on the fence about or maybe just haven't looked deeper yet. Pliable list for sure.

For reference I did a $350 FPC draft last night, my second of the year, and took Diggs at 3.11 as WR18. Aiyuk went 3.01 as WR13. Deebo came off right after me at 3.12. According to my tiers Diggs was the bigger value (as of that moment).

I did the first one about a week ago and Aiyuk again went 3.01 WR13, Deebo went 4.01 WR20 (so basically 3.12 again) and Diggs went 4.02 WR21.

Aiyuk over Deebo. Deebo is an injury risk. Plus, Aiyuk is an ascending player, Deebo is a descending player. I would have Aiyuk in that AJ Brown tier and Deebo and Diggs in that Devonta Smith tier.

yeah I think that's about right, but I do think Deebo still has the capability to finish high, and certainly on a week to week basis, which is another ingredient that I *try* to bake into these tiers. the idea of upside. I fall into the camp of "if you draft for upside everywhere then you end up with an elite floor" - so I try to put players through that lens and Deebo is a guy that can win weeks. So is Aiyuk, though, and more consistent, durable, ascending like you say, all of that.

I tend to apply the upside argument more to later RBs than early round WRs but it's a part of it.

 

[markrc99]

The order within tiers is not ranked unless otherwise noted

RB:

Love the plug for WR Rashid Shaheed. I do happen to disagree that Nacua remains the #1 option/producer for the Rams. But it's the Ekeler/Robinson jr. thing that's pulling at me. At fantasypros.com Robinson is ranked RB30 & a mid-8th rd value in .5ppr. Ekeler they rank about 10 spots later. However, on avg. the fantasy community is drafting Ekeler at about where Robinson is ranked. Robinson's ADP is 21 spots later in the early 10th! While the community clearly takes Ekeler's favorable situation with the Chargers into account, the vast majority view him as the better fit in Washington or the more talented. Which, I don't believe either is true.

What we know is that a hefty chuck of Ekeler's production was in the passing game. Jayden Daniels would just as soon take it himself than check it down. When Kliff Kingsbury was in Arizona, guys like James Connor & Kenyan Drake feasted down near the goal, as ball-carriers. So, if tendency to this point is any indication, it would seem to favor Robinson. I have him greatly outperforming his current ADP.

 

[barackdhouse]

The order within tiers is not ranked unless otherwise noted

RB:

Love the plug for WR Rashid Shaheed. I do happen to disagree that Nacua remains the #1 option/producer for the Rams. But it's the Ekeler/Robinson jr. thing that's pulling at me. At fantasypros.com Robinson is ranked RB30 & a mid-8th rd value in .5ppr. Ekeler they rank about 10 spots later. However, on avg. the fantasy community is drafting Ekeler at about where Robinson is ranked. Robinson's ADP is 21 spots later in the early 10th! While the community clearly takes Ekeler's favorable situation with the Chargers into account, the vast majority view him as the better fit in Washington or the more talented. Which, I don't believe either is true.

What we know is that a hefty chuck of Ekeler's production was in the passing game. Jayden Daniels would just as soon take it himself than check it down. When Kliff Kingsbury was in Arizona, guys like James Connor & Kenyan Drake feasted down near the goal, as ball-carriers. So, if tendency to this point is any indication, it would seem to favor Robinson. I have him greatly outperforming his current ADP.

good post, yeah that RB backfield is going to be an important one for fantasy, and right now the market is more or less splitting the difference between those two but I do think Robinson is greatly undervalued right now and Ekeler is probably just about right. Or if he is low he is only a little low. If Robinson dominates carries, which when you really think about it makes the most sense by far, and he is a very competent receiver himself, you probably have to put him closer to like the 4th round.

 

[barackdhouse]

made a couple edits

 

[Biabreakable]

If ETN finished at the top of the tier I have him in now, that would be RB15.

Is that really so crazy?

It’s not crazy for him to finish RB15 but you have him equal to late round draft picks on bad offenses with extremely small sample sizes like Zamir White and Chuba. You have him with guys who have pretty much flamed out like Javonte Williams and guys who seem to be at the end of the road and have young competition like Ekeler and Conner. ETN is much closer to tier 2 than he is tier 4.

ETN and CMC are the only 2 RBs with at least 1400 yards each of the last 2 seasons.

Yeah fair enough. I don't think I can bump him up though. But I can create a new tier because I would agree he is closer to 2 than 4. Maybe I need to split number 3 up a bit.

Well what does each tier mean?

 

[barackdhouse]

If ETN finished at the top of the tier I have him in now, that would be RB15.

Is that really so crazy?

It’s not crazy for him to finish RB15 but you have him equal to late round draft picks on bad offenses with extremely small sample sizes like Zamir White and Chuba. You have him with guys who have pretty much flamed out like Javonte Williams and guys who seem to be at the end of the road and have young competition like Ekeler and Conner. ETN is much closer to tier 2 than he is tier 4.

ETN and CMC are the only 2 RBs with at least 1400 yards each of the last 2 seasons.

Yeah fair enough. I don't think I can bump him up though. But I can create a new tier because I would agree he is closer to 2 than 4. Maybe I need to split number 3 up a bit.

Well what does each tier mean?

I'm sorry but I don't understand your question.

Each tier is meant to represent a group of players who are going around the same area of ADP and roughly where I think they will finish. After reading and thinking through some of the stuff on ETN I decided my original tiers needed regrouped a little. That change is reflected in the OP.

The idea would be to not dip into the next lower tier until you have to (during a draft) and if someone is the last guy standing within a tier then you know you're probably getting value there.

 

[barackdhouse]

And over the years I've learned that everyone builds tiers slightly different. Mine are built as a composite function of both where I think they will finish and where ADP currently has them (and that is a moving target throughout draft season and where I start now may not be totally accurate but it's a place for me to start - your feedback and others does help). The OP is just a list but the way I build them is left to right and top to bottom in my spreadsheet. My guys on the left, DND on the right and usually a pretty big chunk in the middle that I'm still either on the fence about or maybe just haven't looked deeper yet. Pliable list for sure.

 

[barackdhouse]

https://x.com/Ship_Chaser/status/1795098716329615634

here is a view the way it should be. easier to visualize.

 

[Gally]

No Pollard at all? Seems a bit odd to Bigsby and no Pollard. I could see Pollard and Spears cannibalizing each other making neither one a top tier player but both getting enough to be startable in most leagues.

 

[barackdhouse]

No Pollard at all? Seems a bit odd to Bigsby and no Pollard. I could see Pollard and Spears cannibalizing each other making neither one a top tier player but both getting enough to be startable in most leagues.

I'm not a believer and Spears is really good IMO. But there are lots of RBs I left off after the last tier. I didn't include the rookies, and Pollard is in the next tier down.