Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

[footballman_696969]

I really enjoyed the Jets run through the playoffs last year and watched Shonn Greene really shine in the playoffs. I am not a huge Greene fan, but I think that some of the projections are failing to assess the effectiveness of the Jets Offensive Line in 09. They were awesome last year and I expect them to remain very good in 2010. Even though Sanchez should continue to progress and he has added some nice receiving options, this team loves to pound the rock.

07- 446 carries 1601 yds 3.59 ypc 6 TDs with RBs having 381 for 1472 3.9 ypc and 4 TDs

08- 422 carries 2004 yds 4.75 ypc 20 TDs with RBs having 381 for 1833 4.8 ypc and 19 TDs

09- 605 carries 2617 yds 4.33 ypc 21 TDs with RBs having 519 for 2321 4.5 ypc and 16 TDs

New York Jets had 605 rushing attempts in 09 against only 389 passes, an amazing 60.9% rushing. I don't expect that ratio to stay in place, but I doubt that it drops to lower than 55%. Assuming the same number of offensive plays, that would produce 547 rushing attempts, with around 490 or so probably going to the RBs. I just don't see how Shonn Greene doesn't get at least twenty per game. That would still leave 170 to split among LT, McKnight and Richardson.

He did have one reception in the playoffs so maybe he is coming around some with his hands.

Shonn Greene 16 gms 320 carries 1408 yards 4.4 ypc with 25 targets 18 catches 6.0 ypc 108 yards and 10 TDs

I agree that LT2 is washed up, but do you really think he will only see 6-8 carries/game? Why would Rex Ryan sign him then? Couldn't he have picked up someone cheaper to fill this role?

 

[Reaper]

When you say overrated I am assuming you are going by his ADP. What is it right now? I havent check with any of the sites but I think he would be overrated if he was going in the 2nd, about right in the 3rd and true bargain from the 4rth on.

At FFC, Greene's ADP is 2.01/13th overall. He's the 9th RB coming off the board. For drafts closer to the season, his ADP will probably be based heavily on how the Jets look on Hard Knocks.

yeah thats a touch high

2nd round is crazy. In the 4 recently completed Survivor leagues in the mock forum he went rb14, 15, 17 and 18... 3rd-4th round 16 teams.18 sounds like decent valueLooks to me like a good "Tier" is Benson MorenoMathewsWells Greene After that it's:Joseph Addai - RB19 - INDLeSean McCoy - RB20 - PHIFelix Jones - RB21 - DALJahvid Best - RB22 - DETMatt Forte - RB23 - CHIReggie Bush - RB24 - NOS Ronnie Brown - RB25 - MIAChester Taylor - RB27 - CHICJ Spiller - RB26 - BUF

 

[PhD]

I am really high on Shonn Greene for these reasons:1. Extraordinary number of rushes as a team. This is a running team that likes to control the clock and will grind out the second half of games that they have 10 point leads in. They are not a go for the jugular team yet. They will rely on the ground game and dare the defense to stop it.2. Shonn Greene demonstrated his ability late in the year and into the playoffs, and though he's not an elite runner yet, imagine where his stats will go if he can get the yards that Thomas Jones left from last year. 3. LT is washed up, and done. I don't see him getting 500 yards this year. Whether it's injury or ineffectiveness. He runs like Betty White.4. Rookie RB Joe McKnight just isn't very good. I don't see him having an impact unless injuries pile up. He is still IMO the handcuff to own (cheap) for Greene.330/1600/11 with 15/98/1 and all around uberstud.

I, too, like the team rushes, the fact that LT is apparently done, and I don't think McKnight is any Leon Washington. To me this spells 20 carries/game x 16 games x 4.5 ypc = 1440 yards. But the real reason to love Shonn Green is TD's. I loved watching LT through his career but the only reason he got so many TD's in SD last year was opportunity. When competing with Sproles for goal line touches, who didn't expect LT to get the vote? But now look at Greene. I don't think he'll have to worry about LT and I don't think they'll be throwing the ball inside the 5 when they've got a great line and a wrecking ball at RB. Why tempt fate with a quick slant or a fade when you can just pound it? I have analyzed his situation carefully because I must decide between Greene and SJax in a 3 man keeper league. Not asking for advice here, but just stating that I have a distinct interest in the subject and I'm not pro-Greene because he's on my dynasty team. I can easily cut bait. I conservatively expect nothing less than 10 rushing TD's and 1300 yards, but we're here to make our best guesses and my official guess is going to be 320/1440/15 with 5/35/0. I don't play in leagues that give free points for receptions, so I'm down with single digit receptions - as long as it is met with consistent 15+ carry games and regular TD's. 1440/15 seems ridiculous on paper but this is the Jets and rush the ball is what they do and they do it well. Some people think that Sanchez will improve and this means they'll get close to a 50/50 split, but if it isn't broken, why fix it? Every team in the league aims to rush the ball as much as possible. No one is building a team hoping they'll be able to pass more next year. Necessity has dictated Houston pass a lot, but that doesn't mean it is Kubiak's preferred method of attack. If Sanchez improves then that just means the new respect the D has to pay the pass will just open up more running room. I don't see a significant change in offensive philosophy. 600 team rushes may not happen, but there's no reason to think anything less than 525 is going down and, honestly, I wouldn't rule out 600 again. Statistically improbable but I'm sure there were extraneous reasons behind why teams don't repeat 600 carry seasons, such as losing a coach or a couple offensive linemen. The Jets offense looks remarkably similar to last year. Don't rule out 600 just because it hasn't happened before. That would be foolish. 600 was not a statistically anomaly occurring by accident. That is a straight up accomplishment in today's NFL. If they can do it again, they will.The only real knock is injury. I'm not going to be shocked if he gets dinged up this year and leaves games early. But I'm also not going to be shocked if he still ends up with 320 carries, so I'm sticking to it.16g 320carries 4.5ypc 5rec 7ypr 15TD= 1475/15

I think this and many of the projections are based too much on last season and not enough on the "spirit" of the offseason. The bottom line is that the Jets have re-tooled every facet of their offense to pass better. In trading for Holmes to add to Edwards they have a WR core that is arguably one of the most dangerous in the league (but also maybe most psychologically damaged). What used to be a combo of Jones and Greene (ie., power+power) they now have a combo of Greene and LT (power+pass catching). By letting go of Faneca they release one of the great run blockers in the league because he was also a poor pass blocker. Sanchez is not in the mold of Flacco and other QBs who were/are more cerebral and consistent. He is a play maker and he WANTS to make the plays. I expect a large shift in the running/passing balance and I think that plays out in the number of carries and especially in the TDs scored. I think LT gets more opportunities because he can catch and I see many more TDs coming from outside the 5.

 

[Thomsen]

Ryan likes his veterans, and you can't underestimate LT's desire to prove everyone wrong. That being said I dont think LT gets more than 10 carries a game, with 3-5 receptions. Greene should approach 18-20 carries a game, maybe even more as Jets looks like a team that will be defending alot of leads.

300 carries is not out of the question, and with that o-line he should be able to produce very well per touch. Thomas Jones had 331 carries last season, and I see no reason for Shonn Greene not to approach those numbers. I like his vision, his anticipation and his power. Tacklers bounce off of him, and he shows pretty decent speed in the open field.

300 carries, 1320 yards, 10 tds.

 

[pantherclub]

Ryan likes his veterans, and you can't underestimate LT's desire to prove everyone wrong. That being said I dont think LT gets more than 10 carries a game, with 3-5 receptions. Greene should approach 18-20 carries a game, maybe even more as Jets looks like a team that will be defending alot of leads. 300 carries is not out of the question, and with that o-line he should be able to produce very well per touch. Thomas Jones had 331 carries last season, and I see no reason for Shonn Greene not to approach those numbers. I like his vision, his anticipation and his power. Tacklers bounce off of him, and he shows pretty decent speed in the open field. 300 carries, 1320 yards, 10 tds.

I just do not know how many more ways to say this but LT is friggin done. His legs are shot. I hate to say it because he is an all timer but he has no burst or lateral movement anymore. He got his TD's when the Chargers were on the goal line and too scared to give it to Sproles. That will not happen with Greene. I think 10 carries/game is still too high for LT. I realize what he got last year but the Chargers really had no other RB option. Sproles is not really an everydown back.

 

[Sweet Love]

Ryan likes his veterans, and you can't underestimate LT's desire to prove everyone wrong. That being said I dont think LT gets more than 10 carries a game, with 3-5 receptions. Greene should approach 18-20 carries a game, maybe even more as Jets looks like a team that will be defending alot of leads. 300 carries is not out of the question, and with that o-line he should be able to produce very well per touch. Thomas Jones had 331 carries last season, and I see no reason for Shonn Greene not to approach those numbers. I like his vision, his anticipation and his power. Tacklers bounce off of him, and he shows pretty decent speed in the open field. 300 carries, 1320 yards, 10 tds.

While I agree with much you said, you forgot the point where Greene attempts to jam it in from the 3 yards line and loses the ball. I will fall over if Greene gets more than 6 TDs on the ground in '10. If you are the coach and you have a battering ram who has the tendency to lose the ball and a guy who has little burst, but is nifty around the goalline, who do you go with!?!?! LT is going to put up Marcus Allen KC-esque numbers in '10 (i.e. 500 yards rushing, 9 TDs) while Greene is the between the 10s RB and comes away with 1200 and 5 TDs. Outside of PPR, Greene may make sense, but personally, I would rather have everyother RB in his "tier", before I select Greene. Now, if LT goes down that is a different scenario, but all things being equal (considering VBD), LT is the play here.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.

600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards

Bust based on current ADP.

Lt had all last season to show he was not washed up,how'd that work for him?Jets don't let TJ and Washington leave town if they didn't feel they had their bell cow RB in Greene..

Jets ran the ball 420 times last season..your projection of 600 yards doesn't work..if Greene gets the Jets 2009 avg of 3.8 ypc, that'll be just 157 carries for him.. that leaves a whopping 263 carries for LT2??? c'mon now.. what you're saying is a

beaten down, old RB with way too many carries on his HOF body will outlast,outduel Greene for the RB1 spot on the Jets?

that is not going to happen..

LT2 brings nothing to the table other than a great set of hands...he's too old,too slow, too worn down to be an effective RB anymore..

Jets have the best O-line in football, although it remains to be seen what happens now that Faneca is gone..

either way, Greene gets the bulk of the carries, somewhere between 310-325

325/1462/10td..

receptions are hard to predict with LT2 in town.

this guy has the frame to handle a heavy workload..

if those #'s look high, consider that TJ rushed 331 times last season,and 290 times in 2008..this offensive coaching staff doesn't use RBBC , the let one guy tote the rock and use him extensively..

honestly, I have no idea why the Jets signed LT2, he's finished, like Eddie George was during the final years of his NFL career..

After further thought...I was being really unrealistic.....so updated projections:

875 Yards Rushing.

Again I am really alone on this island....but I am not a believer that Greene is anything special at all. And am in the minority that LT2 has a bigger impact than anyone expects.

600 - 900 - 1100Doesn't really matter. All i know is that two of us won't have him on our rosters

 

[HoleFiller]

225 Carries 3.5 YPC.I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.

Strange that Matthews situation is regarded as so wonderful but you lay all of LT's shortcomings at the feet of the OL and team....

Oh I don't think Matthews situation is all roses...he will have a tough time finding running room if that OL has no improvment from last season.The Jet's OL is so good Greene will probably get 1000 yards just becuase the holes will be huge....but i think the Jets will not sneak up on anyone this season and everyone knows slow down or shut down the run and let the 2nd year guy beat you. I have my doubts Sanchez can carry a team at this point. Lukewarm on Greene......I am low balling his numbers probably...but my feelings about him remain the same...overvalued, over hyped and owners will be in for a big letdown this season.I just do not se the talent to make him a big time Runner like so many project. yes his line and situation look great....but I have seen many other runners in the past with the same setup...fall flat on there face.

So you've gone from 600 yards to 875 and now say he will probably run for 1000?The fact of the matter is the Jets are going to run the ball upwards of 500 times, they have a stout offensive line, good run blocking wrs, and a defense that will likely keep them in contention in most games. Greene got 108 carries last year in the reliever role so that number is going to triple with the loss of Thomas Jones. Even in LT gets 150+ carries Greene should still get around 300.The biggest concern for me is that Greene is always getting nicked up, if he can learn to play through the little things or survive a full season the results will be wonderful. But since guys like Gore Sjax and Turner (And Mathews who has his own injury history) are guys who he is being drafted around you can not use injury to sway you one way or another. 315 carries 1400 9 Tds 4 Rec 15 yds

 

[Todem]

225 Carries 3.5 YPC.

I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.

I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a average talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.

Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.

Strange that Matthews situation is regarded as so wonderful but you lay all of LT's shortcomings at the feet of the OL and team....

Oh I don't think Matthews situation is all roses...he will have a tough time finding running room if that OL has no improvment from last season.

The Jet's OL is so good Greene will probably get 1000 yards just becuase the holes will be huge....but i think the Jets will not sneak up on anyone this season and everyone knows slow down or shut down the run and let the 2nd year guy beat you. I have my doubts Sanchez can carry a team at this point.

Lukewarm on Greene......I am low balling his numbers probably...but my feelings about him remain the same...overvalued, over hyped and owners will be in for a big letdown this season.

I just do not se the talent to make him a big time Runner like so many project. yes his line and situation look great....but I have seen many other runners in the past with the same setup...fall flat on there face.

So you've gone from 600 yards to 875 and now say he will probably run for 1000?

The fact of the matter is the Jets are going to run the ball upwards of 500 times, they have a stout offensive line, good run blocking wrs, and a defense that will likely keep them in contention in most games. Greene got 108 carries last year in the reliever role so that number is going to triple with the loss of Thomas Jones. Even in LT gets 150+ carries Greene should still get around 300.

The biggest concern for me is that Greene is always getting nicked up, if he can learn to play through the little things or survive a full season the results will be wonderful. But since guys like Gore Sjax and Turner (And Mathews who has his own injury history) are guys who he is being drafted around you can not use injury to sway you one way or another.

315 carries 1400 9 Tds 4 Rec 15 yds

Forget projections...I just feel he will under perform his ADP and make a lot of owners very unhappy. After really looking at his situation yeah...over a thousand yards but not much else. Low TD numbers and non exsistent in the passing game.

I only play in PPR....Greene is not the type of back I target unless I think he will be Turner 2.0 which I don't. He is not nearly as tough as Turner, puts the ball on the ground and has a HOF breathing down his neck. The LT factor looms very large in my thinking for Greene this season and again I am not enamored with his talent as a premier RB in the NFL.

As far as the Jets running it 500 times....not a fact till it happens. Will it be a good probabilty? Sure...but I think LT is capable with this team in getting half the work.

The season will tell the story.

 

[Grahamburn]

My issue with Greene is his inability to catch passes and the lurking of LT. Say what you want about LT, but the Jets signed him for a reason. He's going to be the third down back and he can still be an effective runner on the goalline.

I'm expecting 300+ carries from Greene as well, but if they're all outside the red zone he could end up with 1,400 yards rushing and an abysmal 4 or 5 TDs with LT getting 10 or more. Greene isn't going to catch anything and unless he's getting those all important carries inside the ten or breaking long TDs consistently fantasy owners are going to have several disappointing/frustrating weeks where Greene runs for 100 yards on 20 carries, but LT vultures two TDs and catches 6 passes.

The writing is on the wall here. LT is sure handed, Greene has had fumbling problems, LT is rarely hurt, Greene gets nicked up. You're going to see LT getting third downs, some short yardage/crunch time looks, and goalline carries at the expense of Greene.

2009:

Thomas Jones- 332 1,402 4.2 14 TDs

Shonn Greene- 109 541 5.0 2 TDs

I can envision very similar carry totals in 2010, with Greene getting the 332 and LT getting the 109, but the TD totals are going to heavily favor LT.

2010:

Shonn Greene- 310 1,457 4.7 6 TDs

LaDainian Tomlinson- 135 594 4.4 11 TDs 25 recs 200 1 TD

 

[hotlanta]

Let's open up the discussion again. I'm trying to decide on him or Jamaal Charles as a keeper pick. Very tough decision.

 

[dagwood]

Let's open up the discussion again. I'm trying to decide on him or Jamaal Charles as a keeper pick. Very tough decision.

PPR - CharlesNon-PPR Green

 

[dwyadog]

i know its folly to try and predict injury but i think youd be better off with charles. he can score in multiple ways and break long plays. Greene could be set up for 15 td's but i really dont see him playing 16, i think his chance for injury is significantly higher than most rb's. There also the age thing if this isnt a redraft. Charles has succeeded at every level, is significantly faster and can catch. even in non-ppr youre much more likely to get those 80-100 yfs games from charles and not suffer the 15/43 from greene.

 

[TitansFan10]

A tiny Charles is much more likely to be hurt than the huge Greene.

 

[hotlanta]

A tiny Charles is much more likely to be hurt than the huge Greene.

That's true. I've read mostly that LT will be an afterthought in that offense. But it still nags me that Ryan would even sign him if that was the plan. He can get the same amount of goaline/short yardage production from say a Lendale White type at a fraction of the cost. Plus, Greene is not a small guy himself. I hate to say it but could this turn out to be every other or every 3rd series RBBC, much like Chris Johnson and LenDale White did CJ's rookie year? Will LT have a bigger role than we think? And why did Greene fall to the 3rd round if he's got all that talent? What role will Joe McNight play? Lot's of questions.The same really for Charles. He's got Thomas Jones to contend with. He's got a poor team that will be playing from behind a lot. Granted he should get a lot of receiving yards, but how often will KC even be in the redzone? The supporting cast is pretty weak here. His size makes him an injury risk as mentioned before.

 

[Todem]

A tiny Charles is much more likely to be hurt than the huge Greene.

That's true. I've read mostly that LT will be an afterthought in that offense. But it still nags me that Ryan would even sign him if that was the plan. He can get the same amount of goaline/short yardage production from say a Lendale White type at a fraction of the cost. Plus, Greene is not a small guy himself. I hate to say it but could this turn out to be every other or every 3rd series RBBC, much like Chris Johnson and LenDale White did CJ's rookie year? Will LT have a bigger role than we think? And why did Greene fall to the 3rd round if he's got all that talent? What role will Joe McNight play? Lot's of questions.The same really for Charles. He's got Thomas Jones to contend with. He's got a poor team that will be playing from behind a lot. Granted he should get a lot of receiving yards, but how often will KC even be in the redzone? The supporting cast is pretty weak here. His size makes him an injury risk as mentioned before.

Charles will be one of the league leaders in TD runs of over 20 yards. Mark it.

Kid is a superstar waiting to happen.

 

[dwyadog]

As I said I know its silly to try and predict injury but what does the injury history look like for charles vs greene? College and Pro combined? The way greene runs and the defenses he will be facing this year lead me to feel theres a good chance of injury, half games and games missed here and there. On the size thing, I've rolled with barry in the past and have at least one of cj, rice or mjd in all my leagues, size and injury dont always correlate for me if the guy is elite. Ive read some articles in the past but would love to see some more on rb's in the last 3-4 years, size vs games/plays/series missed. i think perhaps the 5'10 190-205 guy getting injured more has more to do with body composition than straight height/weight and that the conventional wisdom on it might be off, especially when factoring in body shape.

 

[rizzler]

who is shonn greene?

 

[Flyin Pigs]

who is shonn greene? :(

I don't get it.

 

[Exit 1]

Let's open up the discussion again. I'm trying to decide on him or Jamaal Charles as a keeper pick. Very tough decision.

Greene in a heartbeat.

 

[jackdubl]

Let's open up the discussion again. I'm trying to decide on him or Jamaal Charles as a keeper pick. Very tough decision.

I was in the exact same boat. I wish I could've waited until preseason to make my selections, so I could see how each was actually being used. Bottom line for me was touches. For Greene to be a solid RB2, he needs about 280 carries. A lot of people think 300 carries is a foregone conclusion, but Jones was on pace for only about 250-260 before Washington got hurt, then he went way up. I think LT will get similar work as Washington with maybe more goalline touches. Greene doesn't catch the ball. So even if he stays healthy, his ceiling is high RB2 numbers, assuming around 5 yds per carry and 10-13 tds. That's a lot of things going right to hit that ceiling, mainly health and healthy td production.Charles, on the other hand, needs far less to go right to hit the same point total. All indications from KC seem to point to at least 220 carries and at least 40 catches. Assuming 5yds per carry, that's 1,100 yds plus at least 350 rec yds. He would need nine tds to equal Greene's ceiling numbers, unless Greene gets well over 300 carries.So they have about the same floor, but Charles has a much higher ceiling. He should average more than 5 per carry, while Greene should average less. He may tack on a special teams td or two to help his td totals. He should be a lot fresher down the stretch, as Greene takes a lot of punishment. Charles may have much better receiving numbers than his floor, since Weiss is a coordinator who heavily used the screen pass game in New England. I feel Charles is the safer bet for solid RB2 production and has the greater upside. I kept Charles over Greene on my own team in non-ppr.

 

[hotlanta]

Let's open up the discussion again. I'm trying to decide on him or Jamaal Charles as a keeper pick. Very tough decision.

I was in the exact same boat. I wish I could've waited until preseason to make my selections, so I could see how each was actually being used. Bottom line for me was touches. For Greene to be a solid RB2, he needs about 280 carries. A lot of people think 300 carries is a foregone conclusion, but Jones was on pace for only about 250-260 before Washington got hurt, then he went way up. I think LT will get similar work as Washington with maybe more goalline touches. Greene doesn't catch the ball. So even if he stays healthy, his ceiling is high RB2 numbers, assuming around 5 yds per carry and 10-13 tds. That's a lot of things going right to hit that ceiling, mainly health and healthy td production.Charles, on the other hand, needs far less to go right to hit the same point total. All indications from KC seem to point to at least 220 carries and at least 40 catches. Assuming 5yds per carry, that's 1,100 yds plus at least 350 rec yds. He would need nine tds to equal Greene's ceiling numbers, unless Greene gets well over 300 carries.So they have about the same floor, but Charles has a much higher ceiling. He should average more than 5 per carry, while Greene should average less. He may tack on a special teams td or two to help his td totals. He should be a lot fresher down the stretch, as Greene takes a lot of punishment. Charles may have much better receiving numbers than his floor, since Weiss is a coordinator who heavily used the screen pass game in New England. I feel Charles is the safer bet for solid RB2 production and has the greater upside. I kept Charles over Greene on my own team in non-ppr.

Good analysis. But let's not forget that Thomas Jones is a good receiver in his own right. How much will he eat into Charles' receiving numbers? Will Jones play only on third downs or will they rotate each series and it becomes a true RBBC? We already know that KC never regarded Charles as an every down back when LJ was there. Does that still hold true? Can he take the the pounding of a 16 game season? Still a lot of unanswered questions in KC as well.

 

[jackdubl]

Let's open up the discussion again. I'm trying to decide on him or Jamaal Charles as a keeper pick. Very tough decision.

I was in the exact same boat. I wish I could've waited until preseason to make my selections, so I could see how each was actually being used. Bottom line for me was touches. For Greene to be a solid RB2, he needs about 280 carries. A lot of people think 300 carries is a foregone conclusion, but Jones was on pace for only about 250-260 before Washington got hurt, then he went way up. I think LT will get similar work as Washington with maybe more goalline touches. Greene doesn't catch the ball. So even if he stays healthy, his ceiling is high RB2 numbers, assuming around 5 yds per carry and 10-13 tds. That's a lot of things going right to hit that ceiling, mainly health and healthy td production.Charles, on the other hand, needs far less to go right to hit the same point total. All indications from KC seem to point to at least 220 carries and at least 40 catches. Assuming 5yds per carry, that's 1,100 yds plus at least 350 rec yds. He would need nine tds to equal Greene's ceiling numbers, unless Greene gets well over 300 carries.So they have about the same floor, but Charles has a much higher ceiling. He should average more than 5 per carry, while Greene should average less. He may tack on a special teams td or two to help his td totals. He should be a lot fresher down the stretch, as Greene takes a lot of punishment. Charles may have much better receiving numbers than his floor, since Weiss is a coordinator who heavily used the screen pass game in New England. I feel Charles is the safer bet for solid RB2 production and has the greater upside. I kept Charles over Greene on my own team in non-ppr.

Good analysis. But let's not forget that Thomas Jones is a good receiver in his own right. How much will he eat into Charles' receiving numbers? Will Jones play only on third downs or will they rotate each series and it becomes a true RBBC? We already know that KC never regarded Charles as an every down back when LJ was there. Does that still hold true? Can he take the the pounding of a 16 game season? Still a lot of unanswered questions in KC as well.

Both have unanswered questions. But we saw Charles stand up to 190 carries and 40 rec last year. We also saw Green injured on about 100 carries. And as for Jones stealing into Charles's receptions, I don't think so.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

bump.

 

[nysportsfan]

287-1350-13, 23-165-1

 

[biggamer3]

in a PPR league he slipped all the way to me at 4.3 in a 12 team league.

I know he wont catch anything but i couldnt pass him up even with two RB's already (turner,Mendy and Rivers)

Now i am stuck with a team of bad WR's but i would rather Shonn at flex then Ocho as WR#1

 

[Todem]

Bump it up baby.

Wallow in your misery. This is not a week one panic button...this is his destiny.

Bust!

 

[Todem]

225 Carries 3.5 YPC.

I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.

I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.

Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.

Strange that Matthews situation is regarded as so wonderful but you lay all of LT's shortcomings at the feet of the OL and team....

Oh I don't think Matthews situation is all roses...he will have a tough time finding running room if that OL has no improvment from last season.

The Jet's OL is so good Greene will probably get 1000 yards just becuase the holes will be huge....but i think the Jets will not sneak up on anyone this season and everyone knows slow down or shut down the run and let the 2nd year guy beat you. I have my doubts Sanchez can carry a team at this point.

Lukewarm on Greene......I am low balling his numbers probably...but my feelings about him remain the same...overvalued, over hyped and owners will be in for a big letdown this season.

I just do not se the talent to make him a big time Runner like so many project. yes his line and situation look great....but I have seen many other runners in the past with the same setup...fall flat on there face.

So you've gone from 600 yards to 875 and now say he will probably run for 1000?

The fact of the matter is the Jets are going to run the ball upwards of 500 times, they have a stout offensive line, good run blocking wrs, and a defense that will likely keep them in contention in most games. Greene got 108 carries last year in the reliever role so that number is going to triple with the loss of Thomas Jones. Even in LT gets 150+ carries Greene should still get around 300.

The biggest concern for me is that Greene is always getting nicked up, if he can learn to play through the little things or survive a full season the results will be wonderful. But since guys like Gore Sjax and Turner (And Mathews who has his own injury history) are guys who he is being drafted around you can not use injury to sway you one way or another.

315 carries 1400 9 Tds 4 Rec 15 yds

 

[Reaper]

225 Carries 3.5 YPC.

I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.

I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.

Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.

Strange that Matthews situation is regarded as so wonderful but you lay all of LT's shortcomings at the feet of the OL and team....

Oh I don't think Matthews situation is all roses...he will have a tough time finding running room if that OL has no improvment from last season.

The Jet's OL is so good Greene will probably get 1000 yards just becuase the holes will be huge....but i think the Jets will not sneak up on anyone this season and everyone knows slow down or shut down the run and let the 2nd year guy beat you. I have my doubts Sanchez can carry a team at this point.

Lukewarm on Greene......I am low balling his numbers probably...but my feelings about him remain the same...overvalued, over hyped and owners will be in for a big letdown this season.

I just do not se the talent to make him a big time Runner like so many project. yes his line and situation look great....but I have seen many other runners in the past with the same setup...fall flat on there face.

So you've gone from 600 yards to 875 and now say he will probably run for 1000?

The fact of the matter is the Jets are going to run the ball upwards of 500 times, they have a stout offensive line, good run blocking wrs, and a defense that will likely keep them in contention in most games. Greene got 108 carries last year in the reliever role so that number is going to triple with the loss of Thomas Jones. Even in LT gets 150+ carries Greene should still get around 300.

The biggest concern for me is that Greene is always getting nicked up, if he can learn to play through the little things or survive a full season the results will be wonderful. But since guys like Gore Sjax and Turner (And Mathews who has his own injury history) are guys who he is being drafted around you can not use injury to sway you one way or another.

315 carries 1400 9 Tds 4 Rec 15 yds

Those reception totals seem way low....

He's on pace for 16 / 144